The Flip Side

$1 trillion AI capex by 2028: Justified or inflated?

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:00:00 -0400

Since 2022, AI capital investment has skyrocketed. But can AI capex reach $1 trillion by 2028, as our Equity Research analysts forecast? Labs are reporting rapid growth, and signs show AI demand spreading beyond the hyperscalers to sovereigns and non-tech enterprises. Yet practical barriers such as power supply, infrastructure timelines and the need for clear ROI could but the brakes on capex.

In episode 82 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Tom O'Malley, Equity Research Analyst for US Semiconductors & Semiconductor Capital Equipment, debate whether today’s rapid AI adoption is enough to justify that level of capex or if real-world constraints will force expectations lower.

Listeners can learn more about this topic:

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read our latest reports by logging in to Barclays Live:

Important Content Disclosures

Should alternative asset managers be trading like software?

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 08:04:00 -0400

Private credit has been a powerful growth engine for alternative asset managers, with business development corporations (BDCs) playing a central role. As AI adoption accelerates and software business models come under pressure, investors are concerned with how exposed these managers are to software and other tech-enabled business models that could be disrupted. In recent weeks, investors have sold down their positions, sending some alternative asset managers’ stock prices down roughly 25%. But is that selloff rational or not?

In episode 81 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, is joined by Ben Budish, our Equity Research Analyst who covers US Brokers, Asset Managers and Exchanges, to debate whether the recent selloff was justified. They discuss why AI disruption has become a focal point for markets, how valuation frameworks for alternative managers amplify volatility, and where risks may be overstated versus structurally real. The conversation also explores what this means for future growth across private credit, private equity and insurance channels, and where differentiation may emerge after an indiscriminate selloff.

Listeners can hear more on this topic on our sister podcast, Barclays Brief:

Software: In the AI storm

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

Important Content Disclosures

Is US equities exceptionalism finally cracking?

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 08:00:00 -0400

After more than a decade of US equity dominance, international markets made a rare comeback in 2025. Europe, Japan, Emerging Markets and the UK outperformed, the majority of global equity flows went outside the US, and investors began to revisit long‑standing assumptions around US equities exceptionalism.

Was this simply a cyclical reset after years of US outperformance, or the start of a more durable shift in global equity allocation?

In this episode of The Flip Side, our Global Head of Research, Brad Rogoff, is joined by our Head of European Equity Strategy, Emmanuel Cau, to debate what drove last year’s rotation, whether it has further room to run, and how investors should think about diversification in 2026.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on our view on equities with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

Important content disclosures

Will the US consumer hold up in 2026?

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 11:23:00 -0400

The US consumer showed notable resilience over the holiday period, with retail sales and e-commerce activity remaining robust. Yet, beneath the surface, sentiment surveys signal caution, as consumer confidence hovers near multi-year lows. Against this backdrop, the primary question is whether strong spending can persist as households navigate inflation fatigue, policy changes, and widening economic bifurcation.

In Episode 79 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Cosmetics, Household, Personal Care & Beverages Research Analyst Lauren Lieberman debate the split between hard spending data and soft sentiment indicators. They explore the rise of value-focused shopping, the expansion of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) into essentials, and the outsized role of upper-income cohorts in driving aggregate demand.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on US consumer strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

UK Autumn Budget: Success or shortfall?

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 11:05:00 -0400

The UK’s fiscal policy faced a pivotal moment as Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivered her second Autumn Budget, confronting market and political pressures. The budget builds fiscal headroom mainly through tax rises deferred until 2028, sparking debate over its credibility.

Markets responded favourably, with gilt yields steady and the FTSE 250 gaining ground since. Yet sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing political uncertainty.

In Episode 78 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and UK Chief Economist Jack Meaning debate the implications for markets, inflation and the UK’s economic future.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on UK macro strategy with our latest reports on Barclays Live, including:

Is Japan doubling down on Abenomics, or redefining it?

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 07:56:00 -0400

Japan’s economic policy stands at a crossroads as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi takes office, with the legacy of Abenomics challenged by shifting market and political realities.

The yen has halved against the dollar since 2012, superlong Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields are at record highs, and demographic changes have reshaped demand for government bonds, setting the stage for a global debate on whether Japan’s new leadership can adapt its economic strategy to meet current challenges without causing instability at home or abroad.

In Episode 77 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Head of Japan FX & Rates Strategy Shinichiro Kadota analyse the credibility of Japan’s fiscal ambitions, the fragility of JGB supply-demand, and consider the impact of persistent inflation on the Bank of Japan’s rate path.

Is the AI investment cycle a sign of history repeating?

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 13:02:00 -0400

Artificial intelligence has become the defining investment theme of the current market cycle, with capital expenditure on AI infrastructure reaching unprecedented levels. Hyperscalers have announced nearly $400 billion in capex for this year alone, and forecasts suggest annual increases of 30% in the years ahead. As investors weigh the promise of this transformative technology against the risks of overbuilding, the debate intensifies: will markets continue to run efficiently or are we repeating the excesses of past tech booms that led to busts?

In Episode 76 of The Flip Side podcast, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy, examine the forces behind the AI investment surge and consider the bull and bear cases that surge presents. They explore whether current spending is justified by demand, how power and infrastructure constraints could shape the outlook, and what lessons can be drawn from previous cycles of rapid tech expansion.

With AI capex now central to both equity valuations and broader economic growth, this episode unpacks the critical questions facing portfolio managers as they navigate one of the most consequential debates in today’s markets.

For deeper insight, clients can access related Barclays Research on Barclays Live:

Equity Strategy: Lost My Chain-of-Thought: Could the AI narrative stumble?

Food for Thought: Generative AI vs. cash generation

Episode 69 'Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?'

Important Content Disclosures

US bank regulatory reform: Capital relief or systemic risk?

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:41:00 -0400

In June, US banking regulators, led by the Federal Reserve, proposed changes to the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR), a regulatory measure used to ensure financial stability by limiting excessive leverage.

Despite expectations that easing the SLR rules will unlock lending and liquidity in the US economy, concerns remain over potential risks to financial stability. While large US banks tend to maintain capital buffers well above regulatory minimums, critics believe the Fed’s proposal could shift capital away from the intended outcomes and toward shareholders or proprietary trading.

In Episode 75 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and US Large-Cap Bank Analyst Jason Goldberg debate whether the SLR changes will strengthen or strain the US banking system.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read more on bank capital in several recent publications:

Are oil markets set to heat up or burn out?

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 11:44:00 -0400

Despite widespread expectations of weakening demand for oil, market fundamentals are showing signs of tightening. A slowdown in US shale production and resilient demand across emerging economies could point to a potential shift in the price of oil.

When it comes to demand, elevated refining margins and unexpectedly low inventory levels suggest that actual demand may be outpacing modelled projections.

On the supply side, extended development timelines for new projects and the lingering effects of pandemic-era underinvestment have left the market increasingly exposed to potential shortfalls.

In Episode 74 of The Flip Side podcast, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and lead equity analyst for European energy Lydia Rainforth consider the evolving dynamics of the oil market.

Do the risks of NBFI lending outweigh the opportunities?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 09:29:00 -0400

Commercial & Industrial loans from banks are on the decline, and lending to Main Street and consumers from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is on the rise. But here’s the paradox: traditional banks are fuelling this rise of NBFIs by lending capital to what were once their competitors.

While this systemic shift plays out among lenders, there are questions about whether post-global financial crash regulations – such as stress testing and liquidity requirements – are keeping pace with this market as it grows. Could further growth in this $1 trillion market threaten the stability of the wider banking system?

In Episode 73 of The Flip Side podcast, our Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff and Senior High Grade Financials Analyst Pete Troisi debate whether the risks outweigh the opportunities in this evolving market.

Is the US bond market starting to rebel?

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 08:04:00 -0400

US Treasury bonds are widely regarded as the “world’s risk-free asset.” However, in recent weeks, global investors have increasingly shied away from 30-year US bonds, opting for flexible, shorter-term maturities, due to a combination of growing interest rate risk, sticky inflation and economic uncertainty.

As a result, 30-year interest rates are within striking distance of their highest level since the global financial crisis. This demand for risk premium is not limited just to US long-dated bonds; UK gilts and Japanese 30-year bonds have also experienced new highs recently, suggesting the bond market could be starting to rebel.

In episode 72 of the Flip Side podcast, our Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff joins Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha to assess the situation and debate whether the high rates are transitory or here to stay.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in the latest Global Rates Weekly titled ‘Unusual uncertainty’ on Barclays Live.

Is this the end of the dollar as we know it?

Mon, 12 May 2025 09:43:00 -0400

Following the 2024 US election, predictions of a dollar rally were easy to come by, based on the presumption that President Trump would implement his proposed trade agenda. While Liberation Day and subsequent trade negotiations see some of those expectations realised, the dollar rally hasn’t materialised. In fact, the narrative has turned to widespread concern that the age of the “mighty dollar” is coming to an end.

With investors seemingly losing faith in the Greenback, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff sits down with Themos Fiotakis, Head of FX Research, to discuss whether cyclical issues, including new trade policies, are squeezing the dollar or if more structural forces, such as the longer term de-dollarisation of reserves, are at play.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in ‘The end of the dollar as we know it?’ on Barclays Live.

Important content disclosures

Will tariffs trigger a recession?

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 05:00:00 -0400

The course of the US economy has changed since the beginning of April, when tariffs were introduced – and subsequently paused. This, combined with reduced immigration and already waning consumer and business confidence in the face of growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, raises the question: have these tariffs introduced the possibility of a recession in 2025?

In this episode, Global Head of Research Brad Rogoff sits down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, to unpack the economic effect, debating whether the anticipated slowdown in growth will lead to a recession in an economy that grew at 2.5% in 2024. Brad and Ajay examine key economic areas, including the labour force, consumer spending, business investment and currency effects as they discuss what’s next for the US economy.

Clients of Barclays Investment Bank can read further analysis of these topics in our Q2 2025 Global Outlook report and on our Tariffs 2.0 Hub on Barclays Live.

Is there too much hype for AI and the hyperscalers?

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 06:00:00 -0400

AI has been a major focal point for investors as tech companies compete for an edge in the race to deliver on its promises.

The hyperscalers – tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta – have invested heavily in developing massive data centres, spending billions to stay ahead. But could DeepSeek, the Chinese startup, force a fundamental rethink of what’s required for AI to advance?

In episode 69 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, our Global Head of Research, and Ross Sandler, Head of Consumer Internet Equity Research, dive into the potential long-term effects of DeepSeek’s breakthrough. They explore whether hyperscalers still live up to the hype and how future AI innovations could alter the competitive landscape.

Will European equities outperform the US in 2025?

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 07:12:00 -0400

Europe is the top performing region year to date in equity markets. Can this outperformance be sustained given the Stoxx 600 has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 over the last 25 years? Even backing out Big Tech from indices, European stocks are significantly discounted compared to their American peers.

In episode 68 of The Flip Side, Venu Krishna, Head of US Equity Strategy & Global Equity Linked Strategies, and Emmanuel Cau, Head of European Equity Strategy, consider the factors investors should watch, from the macro and geopolitical backdrop on both sides of the pond, to the influence of the Magnificent 7 and currency and rate effects.

Clients can read further analysis of these topics under Equity Strategy on Barclays Live.

Does inflation still matter?

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 06:00:00 -0400

Inflation has been a critical focus for investors in recent years. US headline PCE and CPI peaked at 7.2% and 9.1% in mid-2022, but with levels coming down toward the 2% Federal Reserve target rate, is it still worth the attention? Or can investors go back to more or less ignoring inflation, as they did pre-pandemic?

In Episode 67 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Global Head of Research, and Mike Pond, Head of Global Inflation-Linked Research, dive into these pressing questions, examining the lingering risks of inflation being stuck at levels just high enough to influence Fed policy, as well as potential shifts in the labour market and tariffs, which could drive inflation risk.

Will Trumponomics be incremental or transformational?

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 12:10:00 -0400

US President-elect Donald Trump has indicated his incoming administration will make major policy changes on everything from tariffs to taxes, all the the potential to transform the global economy. Will Trump's policies lead to sweeping economic change or will the effects be incremental? In episode 66 of The Flip Side, Brad Rogoff, Head of Research and Global Chairman of Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, dive into these big questions.

They examine the potential effects of implementing large-scale immigration reforms and deportations, which would have ripple effects on the labour market, particularly for industries reliant on undocumented workers. Brand and Ajay also explore the promise of deregulation, debating whether reducing regulatory hurdles for businesses can truly accelerate economic growth. Lastly, they tackle looming questions around tariffs and tax cuts, considering their potential to disrupt or stimulate trade and investment.

Is China’s economic stimulus a game-changer or window dressing?

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 04:17:00 -0400

Interest rate cuts, reduced down-payment requirements for mortgages and media reports of the re-capitalisation of banks – are just a handful of the policy changes the Chinese government announced in its recent stimulus package to get the $18trn economy moving.

Chinese financial markets have initially reacted positively, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong Stock exchange soaring on the news. And with additional measures expected, markets seem poised to benefit from further momentum.

In episode 65 of The Flip Side, Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Head of Asia Cross-Asset Strategy Kaan Singh discuss the stimulus policies and consider whether they are large enough to reinvigorate China’s economy or simply ‘window dressing’ tactics.

Does market volatility risk a US hard landing?

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 04:55:00 -0400

Recent volatility in global financial markets has left analysts and investors speculating whether it is being driven by technical factors or more fundamental shifts indicating a looming US recession.

Inflation, rising US unemployment and heightened geopolitical tensions are considered major catalysts for the volatility. The unease in markets was exacerbated by the unwind of the yen carry trade and swirling questions about the Magnificent 7 tech companies’ pace of AI adoption.

In episode 64 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha discuss recent financial market dynamics and debate the re-emergence of a hard landing for the US economy.

Will investors benefit from the 'equitification' of credit markets?

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 05:15:00 -0400

Corporate bond and loan markets have traditionally been rigid when compared to equity markets, characterised by low liquidity, low trading volumes and higher transaction costs. In recent years, the explosion of credit ETFs and the growth of private credit markets has meant all that is changing, causing what our Research analysts call the ‘equitification’ of credit.

In episode 63 of The Flip Side Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of Thematic Fixed Income Research Zornitsa Todorova debate the upsides and downsides of this emerging trend and which investors stand to benefit.

Can consumers curb their carbon addiction?

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 05:29:00 -0400

US carbon emissions are down c.20% from their peak over the past 20 years, thanks primarily to efficiency gains, such as increased miles per gallon for cars, switching to LED lights and moving towards high-efficiency boilers.

Further emission reductions will require more changes from consumers on a number of fronts, such as switching from fossil fuels to electricity for cars, home heating, and so on.

The US government is trying to influence behaviours through a range of subsidies and incentives. Is pushing on all fronts the best approach, or should efforts concentrate on one big issue that can have an outsized impact over the long term?

In episode 62 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli debates that question with Will Thompson from our Sustainable and Thematic Investing Research team.

Can the Fed take credit for declining inflation?

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 15:30:00 -0400

Inflation in the US peaked at around 9% in 2022, and by January 2024, CPI inflation had fallen to 3.1%. This dramatic reduction was achieved without triggering a widely expected recession. Does the Fed’s interest rate hiking cycle deserve credit for this correction, or were other market forces responsible for the generally positive economic outcome?

In episode 61 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli debates that question with Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni, considering how factors such as market expectations, post-pandemic economic realities, shifts in labour force, and housing stock availability drove cooling alongside – or instead of – the Fed’s monetary policy.

Can AI solve the modern productivity puzzle?

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 11:03:44 -0400

In episode 60 of The Flip Side, Hiral Patel, Head of Sustainable & Thematic Research, talks to Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research, about the extent to which and pace at which AI could boost productivity levels globally. They explore the potential costs and benefits to businesses and societies, as well as the range of public policy changes related to education, taxation, antitrust and more that may be required if generative AI is to truly become a GPT.

Is US debt reaching crisis levels?

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 14:52:02 -0400

Warnings that rising US national debt levels are reaching a crisis point have waxed and waned for decades. In Flip Side podcast, our analysts discuss urgent questions about whether the current US government debt is sustainable.

Are equity markets out of sync with the economy?

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 14:12:40 -0400

Stock prices across the developed world are generally higher this year, after falling sharply in 2022. Inflation and the pace of interest rate hikes have slowed. Yet equity markets have proven volatile in recent months, with big positive and negative swings that have not always correlated with the latest economic news. In episode 58 of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, take a deeper look at the data and discuss what is behind the apparent disconnect between equity markets and the economy.

Are US house prices set to fall?

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 10:05:32 -0400

US housing has been a hot topic since the onset of COVID, with a surge in both home buying and prices. But the housing market may be set for a major correction. Jeff Meli, Global Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Global Chairman of Research, unpack what's next for the sector, and debate whether the US housing market is set for a major correction.

Will Electric Vehicles Break the Electric Grid?

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 10:35:12 -0400

Electric vehicles are touted as a way to help reduce CO2 emissions, but can power grids cope with the corresponding electricity demand? Listen to Barclays Research analysts debate the challenges.

Can the US economy outrun a recession?

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 09:33:11 -0400

In episode 55 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Marc Giannoni discuss the warning signs for a potential US recession and whether it can be avoided or if a new cycle is already taking shape.

Is the bank crisis over or is more fallout ahead?

Tue, 16 May 2023 11:03:46 -0400

The recent banking turmoil has exposed a longer-term challenge for the sector: the very nature of systemic risk is changing as runs on deposits become easier. Depositors can access their money quickly and easily through advanced digital tools, and social media platforms allow for influence and opinion to spread broadly at pace. In episode 54 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Credit Analyst covering financial institutions Peter Troisi look back at the root causes of the recent banking crisis and debate the implications and potential fallout yet to come.

What Are the Trade-Offs of Transition? (Live from ESG Conference in NYC)

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 10:03:49 -0400

At Barclays’ inaugural ESG Conference in New York City, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Senior Energy Research Analyst Lydia Rainforth recorded Episode 53 of The Flip Side live, debating whether ESG investing is helping or hindering the energy transition.

Will inflation stall at a high level or decline much further?

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 10:34:19 -0400

Is the US economy on-track for inflation to fall back in line with the Federal Reserve’s 2% target by the end of 2023? Our research analysts share their views on inflation in the latest episode of The Flip Side.

Will the Fed crash the US into recession in 2023?

Thu, 08 Dec 2022 13:23:46 -0400

Many forecasters, including our own economists, are expecting a US recession in 2023, driven by the rapid and ongoing hiking cycle initiated by the US Federal Reserve as it attempts to get a grip on persistently high inflation. As the US economy slows, with housing sales down 30-35% from their peak and increasing reports of layoffs, some are questioning whether the record-setting pace of hikes is a policy mistake that will make a recession inevitable. In episode 51 of The Flip Side, Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Chairman of Research Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate what’s ahead for the US economy into next year.

Will high energy prices fan the flames of recession?

Thu, 03 Nov 2022 12:23:26 -0400

Barclays Research is forecasting recessions in the US, the UK and Europe, driven in part by high energy prices. Will pressure from high energy costs continue to weigh on economic activity or will it ebb as growth slows?

What’s behind the recent UK market turmoil?

Tue, 04 Oct 2022 08:28:22 -0400

After the new UK government’s ‘mini-budget’ was announced, select UK markets slumped. In episode 49 of The Flip Side, Barclays Research analysts debate whether new fiscal policies or other market forces were the trigger.

Is this a make-or-break moment for ESG investing?

Thu, 01 Sep 2022 09:02:56 -0400

ESG investors face rising challenges to implement effective strategies due to increasing complexity and a lack of uniform standards. Our Research analysts debate how ESG investing may evolve in episode 48 of The Flip Side.

Is a new era of instability ahead?

Thu, 28 Jul 2022 13:30:02 -0400

Global economies are facing volatility and uncertainty after nearly 30 years of relative stability. Our analysts debate whether it's the end of an economic era.

Are consumers pulling back?

Wed, 06 Jul 2022 13:00:19 -0400

Consumer spending has been a bright spot amidst a range of shocks to the economy, but will they continue to spend? Our analysts debate.

As the private credit market grows will the risks increase?

Mon, 23 May 2022 09:30:52 -0400

Given the rapid growth of the private credit market, Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate the tradeoffs issuers and investors may face and whether the benefits outweigh the risks for both - and the wider economy.

Should corporate purpose shift from shareholder to stakeholder?

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 10:20:04 -0400

Government, social and corporate forces are converging to redefine corporate purpose. Listen to Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Professor James C. Spindler discuss the case for and against stakeholder capitalism.

Will the Russia-Ukraine conflict trigger a global recession?

Mon, 14 Mar 2022 09:11:50 -0400

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has far-reaching implications for markets and economies. Our Research analysts debate whether a global recession is among them.

Is more or less volatility ahead for US equity markets?

Tue, 15 Feb 2022 14:30:04 -0400

January was a volatile month for US equities. In this episode, our Research analysts debate whether this trend will persist in the weeks and months ahead.

Has the Fed fallen behind the curve on inflation?

Fri, 17 Dec 2021 12:00:30 -0400

The US Federal Reserve recently turned hawkish on inflation. Our Research analysts debate whether economic conditions justify the shift.

Will COVID-19 pills be a game changer for the economy?

Wed, 24 Nov 2021 15:15:09 -0400

Oral anti-viral COVID-19 treatments have performed well in clinical trials, and approval for use is expected soon. What does this mean for the global economy?

Is the US ready for a carbon tax?

Thu, 21 Oct 2021 14:17:31 -0400

Economists view a carbon tax as an effective solution to lower emissions, yet the United States has not implemented one. Has the time come? Jeff Meli and MIT Professor Deborah J. Lucas discuss.

Will US investment in human infrastructure drive economic growth?

Tue, 28 Sep 2021 13:44:59 -0400

The US Congress is negotiating a multi-trillion dollar spending bill to invest huge sums in human infrastructure. But will doing so deliver economic returns?

China's regulatory reforms: Warranted, or a step too far?

Tue, 17 Aug 2021 23:39:57 -0400

Regulatory changes in China are affecting industries and global markets. Research analysts Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Avanti Save debate the policies’ merits and motivations.

Are corporate bond valuations disconnected from fundamentals?

Thu, 08 Jul 2021 13:38:48 -0400

Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether near record high corporate bond valuations have come unmoored from market fundamentals.

Is rising inflation here to stay?

Thu, 27 May 2021 13:00:13 -0400

Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate whether the recent spike in US inflation data is a temporary blip or poses a sustained threat.

Is the US infrastructure bill worth its high price tag?

Mon, 19 Apr 2021 10:39:52 -0400

Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jonathan Millar debate the necessity and merits of the US administration’s proposed $2.3 trillion infrastructure plan.

Are financial assets headed into bubble territory?

Mon, 08 Mar 2021 13:00:18 -0400

Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate which financial assets are becoming bubbles that investors should be wary of now.

Will retail investors continue to upend the stock market?

Tue, 09 Feb 2021 22:19:30 -0400

Jeff Meli and Ryan Preclaw debate the long-term implications of recent retail trading on the stock market, ranging from portfolio strategies to regulation.

Will COVID hurt or help long-term growth?

Fri, 18 Dec 2020 09:59:54 -0400

As 2020 comes to a close, Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Christian Keller debate about the prospects for short- and long-term economic growth post-COVID.

Does the US need another round of fiscal stimulus?

Thu, 12 Nov 2020 15:52:02 -0400

In the latest episode of The Flip Side, Head of Research, Jeff Meli, and Head of Macro Research, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, discuss whether factors such as the distribution of the recovery to date, the appetite for increasing national debt and the looming possibility of a vaccine warrant further fiscal stimulus to bolster economic recovery in the US.

Should the US government play such an outsized role in housing finance?

Wed, 14 Oct 2020 09:11:40 -0400

Head of Research Jeff Meli and MIT Finance Professor Deborah Lucas debate whether the government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are necessary for a smoothly functioning US mortgage market.

Will the dominance of megacities survive COVID-19?

Tue, 29 Sep 2020 11:40:37 -0400

The pandemic has highlighted numerous risks to living and working in megacities around the world and now calls into question whether the long-term trend toward urbanization will be reversed. Should this trend come to fruition, there could be profound effects not just on corporate real estate, but on residential too, as the relationship between workers and their office locations is reconsidered.

Will ESG investing be a force for positive change?

Tue, 18 Aug 2020 13:26:42 -0400

Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether the lack of uniformity in ESG scoring is limiting the impact that investors intend to have in transforming companies’ operations to be more sustainable and improving societal outcomes.

Navigating the Virus Economy: How much will COVID-19 change the global economy?

Thu, 09 Jul 2020 15:45:19 -0400

Barclays Global Head of Research Jeff Meli and Global Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate the longer term, lasting effects of the pandemic on the global economy - from de-globalisation, to mobility and agglomeration and the rising dominance of market power in some industries. For more insights: barclays.com/ib

Navigating the Virus Economy: Is the stock market too optimistic?

Tue, 23 Jun 2020 00:57:08 -0400

Special guest economist Professor Robert Shiller joins Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli to debate whether equity markets are overvalued and what role long-term investing should play during a crisis. For more insights: barclays.com/ib

Navigating the Virus Economy: Is inflation or deflation ahead?

Mon, 08 Jun 2020 13:39:14 -0400

Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of FX & EM Macro Strategy Marvin Barth debate whether to expect inflation or deflation in the recovery period after lockdowns are lifted. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib

Navigating the virus economy: Will the global recovery be a quick bounce or slow grind?

Sun, 10 May 2020 18:24:14 -0400

Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Head of Economics Research Christian Keller debate between about how long it may take for government interventions to be effective in restarting the global economic engine.

Navigating the Virus Economy: Will the euphoria in credit markets last?

Wed, 22 Apr 2020 18:13:49 -0400

Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate about whether the credit rally will last and how effective the US government's support facilities will be. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib.

Navigating the Virus Economy: Will the CARES Act stimulus package save the US economy?

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 17:13:18 -0400

Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen discuss the most important provisions of the CARES Act and debate whether the plan will provide enough near-term stimulus to individuals, small businesses and large corporations to save the US economy. For more insights from our experts: barclays.com/ib

Navigating the Virus Economy: Credit markets under pressure – are they about to crack?

Wed, 01 Apr 2020 23:59:57 -0400

Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Brad Rogoff debate whether recent stresses in short-dated credit markets, in conjunction with severe downgrades of companies from investment grade to high yield, could cause credit markets to crack? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Will the coronavirus pandemic tip the world into a recession?

Sun, 15 Mar 2020 18:32:06 -0400

Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate to what extent the economic risks posed by the coronavirus will affect global markets and whether the disruption will be enough to cause a global recession. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Planes, politics & viruses: Emerging risks to US growth?

Wed, 12 Feb 2020 00:25:38 -0400

Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Michael Gapen, Barclays Head of US Economics Research, debate the degree to which new risks – the issues at Boeing with the 737 Max, the rise of the Novel Coronavirus and the inherent uncertainty of the US presidential nomination process – may affect the US growth outlook and business confidence. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Are the stars aligning for the UK to thrive after Brexit?

Mon, 20 Jan 2020 15:04:45 -0400

Marvin Barth, Head of FX & EM Marco Research, and Fabrice Montagné, Chief UK Economist, debate whether a weakened global economy, geopolitical shifts, and the UK’s technological prowess are combining to offer a more favorable backdrop for Brexit negotiations ahead. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Is regulation the problem or solution to address repo market volatility?

Wed, 18 Dec 2019 12:12:24 -0400

Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Barclays Head of Macro Research, debate whether enhanced regulation of the banking system contributed to volatility in the repo market. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Do negative interest rates help or hinder the economy?

Wed, 13 Nov 2019 05:00:43 -0400

In an effort to spur growth, central banks in Europe and Japan have kept interest rates negative for years. Barclays analysts Jeff Meli and Zoso Davies debate whether or not this monetary policy is working. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Alternative meat - The future of food or just a fad?

Tue, 24 Sep 2019 18:10:51 -0400

Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research, and Ben Theurer, Barclays Head of Latin American Equity Research and Americas Agribusiness analyst, debate whether alternative meat will be a real game changer for the food and meat industries, or just another fringe product that will fade over time. The analysts also weigh in on factors driving the adoption of alternative meat products, such as taste, health benefits and environmental impact. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Can the world be less reliant on oil?

Tue, 03 Sep 2019 17:00:05 -0400

Global oil demand currently stands at an all-time high. Barclays Research analysts debate whether innovation and regulation can transition the world to a low carbon economy quickly enough to stem climate change. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

US Fed rate cut - wise economic decision or untimely mistake?

Tue, 13 Aug 2019 11:29:51 -0400

Barclays Head of Research Jeff Meli and Chief US Economist Michael Gapen debate the merits of the Fed's July 2019 rate cut on the latest episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Goodbye globalisation, hello automation: Time to rethink emerging markets?

Tue, 16 Jul 2019 06:58:56 -0400

Technology has been a catalyst of globalisation in many emerging market economies. But could those tech advances now threaten EM development & related investment strategies? Barclays Research analysts Marvin Barth and Andreas Kolbe debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Does the US-China trade war pose a material risk to the US economy?

Tue, 11 Jun 2019 11:00:15 -0400

Trade tensions between the US & China continue to rise. Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Ajay Rajadhyaksha debate what’s at stake on this episode of The Flip Side. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Big tech: Healthy or harmful to competition?

Thu, 02 May 2019 10:45:53 -0400

Large technology companies like FAANG have amassed market share in the retail and media sectors. Is their dominance enhancing or stifling competition? Barclays Research analysts Jeff Meli and Jim Martin debate. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Is market power weighing on the US economy?

Mon, 01 Apr 2019 16:00:42 -0400

Since 2000, fewer and fewer companies have come to control larger and larger shares of the market in a wide variety of industries. In fact, 75% of US industries have experienced a rise in concentration over that period. What does that mean for competition across the economy and in individual sectors, and is it detrimental or beneficial to the economy? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Rising US corporate debt: Real threat or overblown hype?

Wed, 27 Feb 2019 12:00:06 -0400

Has a decade of growth in the US corporate credit market ballooned to the point of bursting? Brad Rogoff and Shobhit Gupta debate what factors underlie the next potential credit market downturn.

Did the US corporate tax cut stimulate the economy?

Wed, 23 Jan 2019 16:57:29 -0400

At the end of 2017, US President Trump signed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act into law. For corporations, this meant a significant reduction in the tax rate from 35% to 21%, which lawmakers claimed would boost business investment domestically, bring cash held overseas back to the US and create jobs. The question is, did the tax cut achieve all it set out to, and as a result stimulate the US economy? For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Brexit's warning shot: the beginning of the end for globalisation?

Tue, 04 Dec 2018 15:26:40 -0400

In the fifth episode of The Flip Side podcast series, Marvin Barth, Barclays Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, sits down with Fabrice Montagné, Barclays Chief UK Economist, to debate how Brexit represents de-globalisation in Europe, assess where Brexit might lead and discuss what lessons the UK's exit from the EU might offer for other countries grappling with similar phenomenon. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

The yield curve: Recession signal or market noise?

Tue, 06 Nov 2018 19:53:15 -0400

The yield curve has been a relevant signal of past impending recessions. But is it still an adequate predictor today? Our Research analysts debate whether investors should continue to rely on this market indicator.

Emerging market volatility: Global crisis or series of one-offs?

Sat, 29 Sep 2018 12:26:38 -0400

Some emerging market assets have plummeted in 2018. Are we headed toward a crisis that could undo ten years of economic expansion? Barclays Research analysts debate whether EM volatility could tip the developed world into recession. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib

Goldilocks in developed economies: How long can it continue?

Mon, 03 Sep 2018 06:47:41 -0400

Ten years after the financial crisis, unemployment has reached record lows in many global economies, which means we should have seen wage growth increase by now. But that hasn’t been the case. So, what’s the holdup? And what does this mean for the short- and long-term future of the economy? In this episode of The Flip Side, Jeff Meli, Co-Head of Research, sits down with Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Head of Macro Research, to debate the reasons behind this wage stagnation anomaly.

Are U.S. trade policies good for America and the world?

Mon, 23 Jul 2018 17:38:36 -0400

Jeff Meli, Barclays Head of Research sits down with Marvin Barth, Head of FX and Emerging Markets Macro Research, to debate some of the factors contributing to, and possibly resulting from, the state of global trade conflict. For more insights from our experts: https://barclays.com/ib