PERSPECTIVES Weekly: The Investment podcast

Central banks keep an eye on the Middle East

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0100

The first wave of earnings reports suggest that companies do not expect the Middle East conflict to linger, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. "Companies are saying that they are impacted, but the outlook is that this might not take forever," Christian says. "The bar is still quite high for companies to deliver."

Meanwhile, none of the big central banks are expected to adjust interest rates this week, with decisions due from the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. But markets are beginning to factor the Iran conflict into rate forecasts, with the possibility of a slower path of Fed rate cuts and a potential ECB rate increase down the road.

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Earnings season kicks off in a time of conflict

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Earnings season is underway in the US, and the focus will shift this week from financial services to big technology companies, notes Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. Earnings expectations are high, and that “makes disappointment possible, so some caution is wise”, Markus says, but that is “unlikely to disrupt the underlying positive sentiment."

Markets continue to move on headlines around the Iran conflict, but even a workable peace solution might not lead to an immediate normalisation of trading activity. “It will take a long time to get back to normal," Markus says. In the week ahead, "markets are likely to pay attention to earnings releases... and depending on what happens, Iran developments."

Over the longer term, the Iran conflict may have a lasting impact on the way the world views energy supplies. "This situation shows how dangerous dependencies can be," Markus says. “The Iran crisis has underlined these dangers, especially on limited resources like hydrocarbon imports and governments' limited ability to stop domestic energy price spikes."

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Markets fixed on Iran as earnings season approaches

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Markets bounced higher when the Iran ceasefire took place, but the situation remains uncertain, and many assets are likely to remain volatile, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "What we are probably getting here is a fragile stabilisation, not a clean resolution”, Jacky says. “So even if the ceasefire holds on paper, markets will still want proof that things are working in practice.” He says oil prices are likely to remain above pre-conflict levels until markets see practical evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has reopened, in the form of things like tanker traffic and insurance availability.

Central banks are likely to remain cautious while they wait to see what the inflation picture looks like as energy prices feed through the economy, Jacky says, though that will not necessarily mean a U-turn on policy.

Meanwhile, corporate earnings season for the first quarter is about to kick off, and Jacky says that what companies have to say about their businesses may be at least as important to markets as whether they hit their targets. "Going into this Q1 earnings season, I think the numbers still look pretty decent. Expectations for revenue and profit growth are still holding up pretty well at this point."

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The second-round effects of pricier oil

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Oil prices will remain volatile as long as the outcome of the Middle East conflict is unclear, says Dr Jacky Tang, the Private Bank’s emerging markets CIO. “The best way to frame oil right now is that we are in a market dominated by headlines, but not by conviction”, Jacky says. “Our sense is that oil is still carrying a meaningful geopolitical premium, and the market is not prepared to take that premium out unless they see something more than a proposal on paper.”

The fallout from the conflict will also likely extend to assets beyond energy. “For equities, the key message is that lower valuations alone do not guarantee safety”, Jacky says, noting that there could be a divergence in performance between companies that can pass on price increases and those that are less able.

In the week ahead, Jacky says that data on the mood amongst consumers will be important to watch. “I would watch macro releases mainly for signs that the geopolitical shock is starting to leak into consumer behaviour.”

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Central banks take a wait-and-see approach

Mon, 23 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Energy prices have continued to jump, but that might not be a lasting effect of the Middle East conflict – if the fighting doesn’t spread, says Markus Müller, the Private Bank's head of the CIO office and Chief Investment Officer for Sustainability. “A prolonged disruption of oil supply from the Gulf remains unlikely as historically such blockades are difficult to sustain”, Markus says. “Energy markets could swing on any headline, but at the same time we’re mindful that geopolitical shocks historically tend to cause short-lived market turbulence.”

A series of policy decisions from central banks last week meanwhile suggested that they will be keeping an eye on economic data before making any moves to cut rates. “Overall, it seems fair to say that central banks are likely to stay cautious for a while yet”, Markus says. In the week ahead, he says he’ll be watching for European data on the mood among consumers, and for the results of Treasury auctions in the US.

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An energy shock and the inflation outlook

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Markets remain focused on the Middle East, and there are risks that the dislocations in energy prices could linger even if the fighting soon cools, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas. “The oil disruption actually may be much longer with the markets than the physical conflict", Deepak says, noting that oil transport has been a major concern, but that production facilities in the region have also been harmed.

The inflationary pressures of energy prices are likely to affect central banks as well, Deepak says, with decisions due this week from the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England. "There has already been a sharp repricing in Fed rate expectations", Deepak says, with fewer rate cuts expected in the near term. He also said that US bond auctions will be important to watch this week, as well as movements in the interest rate on 10-year Treasury bonds.

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Finding the risk premium for war in Iran

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100

The week ahead will include a wealth of economic data, though most of that could be drowned out by the escalating conflict in the Middle East, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO.

"The Middle East will remain the dominant narrative driver for day-to-day price action, but this week's economic data provides key cross-checks on whether we are facing a pure inflation shock, a growth shock, or both," Jacky says.

He also notes that history has shown that the impacts of even major conflicts on markets tend to be fleeting. “Geopolitical events have rarely had a lasting effect on global stock markets unless they had significant economic impact. So far, our outlook for equity markets remains positive,” Jacky says, pointing to safe haven demand for government bonds, and the possibility of higher gold prices and a firmer US dollar.

But even if economic data won’t be top of mind this week, Jacky points to some important reports due, including the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. “We think the Fed could stay on hold in the next few months and monitor closely the inflation trends.”

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Stocks on the lookout for their next cues

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Strong results from major technology hyperscalers recently did not make much of an impression on stock markets, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO. "We believe there's still long-term confidence in the big technology platforms, particularly around AI and cloud. But the scale of investment required to sustain that leadership has risen sharply", Jacky says. “The mood, I would say, is constructive but disciplined, with markets looking for clearer evidence that today's investment cycle delivers durable returns.”

As for this week’s important economic data, “U.S. non-farm payrolls sit at the top of the list this week. That's the data point that really anchors the market's view on the Fed”, Jacky says. He also points to ongoing developments in trade policy as important to watch.

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Supreme Court strikes down tariffs: what’s next for markets?

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

The US Supreme Court ruled that a broad swath of President Trump’s tariffs are illegal, but there is still much to sort out after the decision, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas.

“It's not the time to really change your asset allocation or portfolio construction, because I feel that a lot of this was already sort of baked into the market reaction,” Deepak says. “I don't think last Friday's decision really rules out or addresses the issue of potential refunds, which is what the market really wants more clarity on. But if made, those refunds could total around $170 billion. So there might be some uncertainty there.”

In the week ahead, some key earnings reports are likely to get a lot of attention, Deepak says. “The bulk of the fourth-quarter earnings is behind us, but still some of the key players are going to be reporting this week” he says, noting some major technology names. But for the year ahead, “The key question is going to be whether the trend of the strongest earnings growth that we have seen in the technology sector stays with us in 2026.”

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Signals & Shifts: China’s evolution, AI dynamics & global data

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Markus Müller, the Private Bank’s Head of the CIO Office and CIO for Sustainability, joins this week’s PERSPECTIVES Weekly Podcast to highlight the forces shaping markets during Chinese New Year.

Markus notes that while near‑term data releases will attract attention, the more important focus is China’s ongoing structural transition. As he puts it, “it isn’t true that China is stagnating – it’s still transforming very fast.” He points to the country’s rapid expansion in areas like clean energy as evidence of this broader shift.

The episode also looks at AI-driven market volatility, with Markus emphasising that shifting sentiment may cause temporary tremors but that AI remains “a structurally positive story”.

Finally, Markus highlights the key releases he’s watching this week—from the FOMC Minutes to inflation data across major economies and the first February PMIs, offering early insight into global momentum.

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Asia in focus: elections, inflation and geopolitics

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Dr. Jacky Tang, Deutsche Bank Private Bank’s CIO for Emerging Markets, breaks down the key forces shaping Asia’s market outlook.

On Japan's weekend election, Jacky notes that “A victory for the LDP would point to broad policy continuity, with fiscal support and gradual BOJ normalisation still in place.”

He explains that such stability would support higher wages and investment, improving corporate profitability and contributing to a steeper yield curve that could benefit the banking sector.

The episode also explores upcoming CPI releases from China, India and the US, and why Asia’s inflation trends continue to diverge from those in the US. Jacky then discusses the latest developments in US-Asia relations — from reduced friction following the US-India trade agreement to a cautious stabilisation in US-China engagement.

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Mixed tech earnings, and a dollar slump

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 00:00:00 +0100

The dollar has been trading around multi-year lows against its peers, but the downward trend may not last, says Dr. Jacky Tang, the Private Bank's emerging markets CIO, in his first appearance on the Perspectives podcast. "While a weak US dollar favours Asian equities and uplifts gold prices, as we can see from the recent price action, we need to also look at the US macro picture." He said he expects the dollar to stabilise after a period of being rocked by geopolitical developments.

Corporate earnings season is still in its early stages, but some important technology names have already reported. "Big tech earnings were mixed," Jacky says, noting some disappointing cloud revenue. "The economy appears stable. However, investors are watching for winners or losers in the AI space."

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How markets are viewing geopolitical risks

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Markets have exhibited some sensitivity to geopolitical concerns amid debates over the status of Greenland, says Deepak Puri, the Private Bank’s Chief Investment Officer for the Americas, though he also notes that those concerns can be somewhat transient.

“Usually markets tend to shrug these off,” Deepak says, “because if they’re not instrumental in changing the macro backdrop, markets say ‘Okay, nothing’s changing.’” He noted that the tariff threats from the US had been a particular concern, so there was some relief when the White House changed course.

The Federal Reserve will be in focus this week, and Deepak says it is not only because of an impending policy decision. Markets expect rates to remain unchanged, and “I think the Fed should be comfortable with a pause as there hasn't really been much change either around inflation or labour market,” Deepak says. But also of interest is the expectation that President Trump will soon nominate the next Fed chair, and the Supreme Court could soon issue a decision related to the Fed’s independence from politics.

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Earnings start strong, and keeping an eye on Davos

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0100

S&P 500 earnings season for the 4th quarter has just gotten started, but early results have been strong, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. “The market is expecting roughly 7% growth this year, which seems a lot, but it's less than last year. And the whisper news is obviously it could be a bit better”, Christian says. “From that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

On the commodities side, gold prices have been climbing for quite some time, but Christian says that shouldn’t necessarily herald a shift for portfolios. “Just to sell something because it's nicely moving up is never a good idea”, Christian says. “There needs to be a fundamental change for us to sell gold, and I don't see that at this point in time.” In the week ahead, he expects markets to be closely watching the World Economic Forum in Davos, as well as a potential decision from the Supreme Court on tariff policy.

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A strong start for markets

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 00:00:00 +0100

Markets started the year from a position of strength despite some geopolitical instability, says Christian Nolting, the Private Bank’s Global Chief Investment Officer. Oil prices shuddered after the US military operation in Venezuela, but “one of our topics for this year is discipline instead of drama”, Christian says. “And from that perspective, we don't need to change at this point in time our investment strategy.”

The bond market has had a busy start to the year, and Christian says this is to be expected as companies often wait until January to address their funding needs. “We do still like the investment grade corporate bonds more than the high yield.” And in the week to come, Christian says that US inflation figures are likely to get a lot of attention, both because of what they mean for the cost of living and for their implications on Federal Reserve policy to come.

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