Geopolitical Cousins

Taco Tuesday

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:00:00 -0500

Marko is unbothered by ceasefire hand-wringing. He argues the Strait of Hormuz traffic was already recovering before any deal — because Iran is rationally cashing in through a tolling mechanism, not risking its leverage. Jacob frets the deal's fragile and spoilers lurk. Elsewhere: KMT's Beijing trip signals Taiwan's shifting mood, eight Senate seats are suddenly in play, Trump's economy approval is a catastrophic 31%, and both cousins have quietly become Claude fanboys.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:38) - Listener Requests and Ethiopia Pivot

(02:13) - Coffee Gifts and Khat Banter

(04:06) - Ceasefire Headlines and Strait Tensions

(05:03) - Why Ceasefires Rarely Hold

(07:43) - Shipping Data and Iran Toll Booth

(14:14) - Oil Flow Math and Alternatives

(16:12) - Gulf States and Toll Compliance

(18:32) - Markets React and Leverage Limits

(22:41) - CapEx vs Flotilla and Spoilers

(28:10) - US vs Israel Strike Capacity

(31:15) - China Stakes and Supply Chains

(38:03) - Zooming Out What Changed Long Term

(39:05) - Energy Transit Logic

(40:26) - Ceasefire Skepticism

(41:40) - Missiles Not Blockades

(42:40) - Beirut Strikes Fallout

(43:22) - Ignoring Trump Noise

(44:49) - US Forces Reality Check

(47:58) - Oil Price Probabilities

(49:39) - Taiwan Opposition Goes China

(56:50) - Germany Negative Power Prices

(59:38) - Trump Cabinet Shakeups

(01:01:29) - Midterms Map In Play

(01:08:24) - Sports Jokes And AI Shift

(01:11:56) - Claude Changes Workflow

(01:14:54) - Sally And Signoff

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro is a speaker, consultant, author, and researcher covering global politics and affairs, economics, markets, technology, history, and culture. He speaks to audiences of all sizes around the world, helps global multinationals make strategic decisions about political risks and opportunities, and works directly with investors to grow and protect their assets in today’s volatile global environment. His insights help audiences across industries like finance, agriculture, and energy make sense of the world.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko Papic is a macro and geopolitical expert at BCA Research, a global investment research firm. He provides in-depth analysis that combines geopolitics and markets in a framework called GeoMacro. He is also the author of Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Spice Must Flow!

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 19:30:00 -0500

We recorded this pre-speech episode earlier today (April 1st), racing the clock before Trump's evening address. Marko seems to think that Trump will zag spectacularly - not taco, not escalate, but announce a NATO exit to distract from the Iran morass. Jacob thinks that there are two most likely scenarios following Trump's speech today. Behind Door A is a taco salad. Behind Door B is economic catastrophe. There might be a "third, secret door" - but you'll have to tune in to learn more :)

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Open

(00:53) - Pregame Iran Updates

(01:56) - Trump Speech Predictions

(02:56) - NATO Exit Distraction

(08:19) - Two Doors A Or B

(11:43) - Door C War But Oil

(16:09) - Escalation Odds And Markets

(20:51) - Tolling Debate Predictability

(24:39) - Israel Spoiler Scenarios

(35:48) - Gulf States And China Leverage

(37:46) - Spice Leverage Limits

(38:37) - Iran Hormuz Toll Scenario

(39:54) - Maritime Chokepoints Debate

(41:09) - Trump and Sea Power Shift

(43:40) - US Exit and Regional Equilibrium

(46:12) - Industrial Policy Reality Check

(49:25) - Russia Ukraine Energy Spillover

(50:46) - Power Is Fungible Argument

(54:30) - Who Guards Gulf After US

(59:41) - Multipolar Stability Case

(1:05:28) - Ukraine as Garrison State

(01:09:30) - Doom Gloom Endgame Risks

(01:17:23) - Wrap Up and Lakers

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Mad Max: Hormuz Warrior

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 07:30:00 -0500

The boys are back! It's only been like 13 days!! Chill!! Also - the Iran conflict isn't just a headline risk - it's a physical supply crisis hiding in plain sight. Despite oil sitting at $93, Marko argues the world is weeks away from a non-linear cliff: floating storage is depleting, Iranian and Russian sanctioned oil relief is a 30-day band-aid, and by mid-April, petrochemicals, LNG, semiconductors, and plastics all face cascading disruption.

His verdict: this resolves, or it goes Mad Max.

Timestamps:

00:00 Welcome

01:32 Beer And Banter

05:05 Trump Pause And Troops

06:43 Oil Shock Timeline

08:41 Houthis And Red Sea

11:31 Shortages Beyond Oil

13:43 Troop Math Reality

18:06 War Outlook Shifts

24:38 Island Invasion Scenarios

28:50 Iran Constraints Debate

32:20 Market Mispricing Pain

34:12 China And Allies Fallout

35:09 China Leverage on Iran

36:55 Low Conviction Warnings

37:53 Middle East War Normalized

40:00 Tacit Rules of Engagement

42:19 Pushback and Pain Threshold

48:36 Markets Start to Crack

53:24 Munitions and Time Limits

54:55 Europe Energy Exposure

56:52 Europe Must Get Real

59:51 Germany Nuclear Wake Up

01:07:05 Multipolar Pragmatism

01:09:56 Europe Virtue Signaling

01:12:37 Summing Up the Fog

01:14:19 Two Week Ticking Clock

01:16:11 Constraint Framework Equilibrium

01:17:32 Israel Leverage And Lebanon

01:20:19 Age Of Revisionism

01:24:46 Realism And The 19th Century

01:27:55 Inequality And Soft Power

01:29:39 NBA Talk Starts Here

01:30:10 Relegation And 30 Teams

01:34:13 Baseball Overtakes Basketball

01:43:01 Wrap Up Mad Max Title

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Marko's Pain-Based Punitive Airpower Global Response Equation

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0500

Marko walks through his mathematical framework for how long the US-Iran conflict lasts:

(Iran's pain tolerance) - (America's punitive air campaign) - (the global response to Hormuz closure) = ?????

They dudes argue about why Iran's drone attacks are already collapsing under B-52 pressure, explain why China won't back Tehran, and warn that the real nightmare scenario isn't the straits — it's Iraq.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome and Mailbag Setup

(00:36) - Straits Transit Joke and SNL Banter

(01:44) - Friday Updates and Personal Chaos

(04:49) - Cuba Iran and US Moves Roundup

(06:20) - How Long Will This War Last

(07:29) - Marko's Pain Airpower Global Response Equation

(11:56) - History Lessons and Iran Deterrence

(13:16) - Where Are the Houthis

(15:53) - US Firepower and Proxy Calculus

(19:09) - Devils Advocate Iranian Endurance

(23:53) - Next Week Risks Houthis vs Iraq

(28:34) - Nightmare Scenario Land War

(31:50) - Should US Seize Kharg Island

(35:26) - Boots on Ground Politics and Mission Creep

(38:17) - Threaten Terminals and Seize Tankers

(42:05) - Straits Threats Dismissed

(43:02) - Israel Interests Explained

(45:15) - Iran Pain Tolerance Debate

(47:17) - Missile Capacity Counterpoint

(48:46) - Risk Desensitization Rant

(54:00) - Pandemic Policy Lessons

(01:02:19) - US Prep Failures Critique

(01:08:37) - China And Iran Support

(01:13:24) - Why Straits Matter Globally

(01:17:22) - Food And Fertilizer Fallout

(01:18:45) - Weekend Wrap And Signoff

Referenced in the Show:

Heggseth Clip - https://x.com/i/status/2032458784199655784

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

They Don't Want the Smoke

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 13:45:00 -0500

Marko and Jacob are back for a late Monday debrief as the Iran-Israel conflict whiplashes through price swings, contradictory Trump proclamations, and a surprise succession in Tehran. Marko breaks down why Iran's malleable war aims and slowing drone attacks signal a regime running out of stomach for a fight... and why the Strait of Hormuz remains the only geography that truly matters.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - New Mailbag! also Hello!

(01:04) - Oil Whiplash Recap

(02:15) - Trump War Quotes

(02:54) - Menu Metaphor

(04:21) - Markets and Reflexivity

(07:20) - Fire and Fury Tweet

(09:50) - Punitive Campaign Logic

(12:35) - Iran Succession Shock

(14:43) - Attack Data and B52s

(16:44) - Red Sea vs Hormuz

(20:17) - Why Hormuz Matters

(24:25) - Vietnam and Tanker Risk

(27:06) - Regime Instability Scenario

(30:37) - Trump and Market Downside

(32:50) - Basketball Geopolitics Analogy

(36:56) - Shaq Strategy Not Nation Building

(38:09) - Ditching the Hormuz Dependency

(40:31) - China Taiwan and Energy Timelines

(41:24) - Why Oil Is Hard to Replace

(43:42) - Dune Metaphor Breaks Down

(45:13) - Middle East Oil Still Matters

(47:09) - India China Pressure on Iran

(51:46) - Stock Versus Flow Reality Check

(53:58) - Global Naval Coalition Scenario

(59:21) - Is Iran Backing Down

(01:05:41) - Iraq Militias and Iran Isolation

(01:08:54) - Final Thoughts Taco Skit

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Epic Heat Check

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:00:00 -0500

Distantly related cousin Matt Gertken joins the GC crew to dissect the escalating US-Iran conflict, and while he IS on record as the self-proclaimed "godfather of fading geopolitical risk" - even he's alarmed. His singular fixation: drones and the Strait of Hormuz. Forget the ballistic missiles, forget Tehran's skyline. If Iran can disrupt that chokepoint - even as a failed state - the world faces a global recession.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome

(00:47) - Oval Office Firings

(01:29) - Is This Becoming Regional War

(05:04) - Closing Hormuz Drones Threat

(08:57) - Iran Pain Threshold And Escalation

(12:37) - Azerbaijan Kurds Regime Change Signals

(13:44) - Why Iran Hits Everyone

(19:53) - Why Trump Shifted On Iran

(23:38) - Israel Influence Conspiracy Talk

(27:07) - America Heat Check And Oil Shock

(34:37) - Sparta Versus Athens Worldview

(38:07) - Deep State Distraction Theory

(39:36) - Strait of Hormuz Pain Threshold

(41:43) - Red Lines for Escalation

(44:39) - Iraq and Hezbollah Wildcards

(46:25) - Why America Reveres the Military

(51:54) - Let Them Drink Bleach Scenario

(56:47) - April 5 Base Case Forecasts

(01:03:50) - Polling and Midterm Pressure

(01:08:52) - Eurotrip Meme Detour

(01:11:14) - Oil Food Prices Final Warning

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Why Hormuz Matters

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 14:00:00 -0500

We brought in Ed Richardson - tanker maven, shipping expert, and one of the sharpest minds on how the world actually moves its oil. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively shut, we break down why insurance isn't really the problem, what Red Sea Part Two looks like, why India might be the most exposed economy on the planet, and whether this is finally the moment the world starts building around the Middle East rather than through it.

Timestamps:

(01:02) - Meet Ed Richardson

(01:26) - Why Hormuz Matters

(02:47) - Shipping Crisis Era

(06:36) - Asia Demand Explained

(08:18) - Flows Stop Prices Spike

(11:24) - Insurance Myth GPS Spoofing

(16:11) - Risk Premium Tanker Boom

(21:21) - Can US Build Tankers

(23:16) - How To Reopen Confidence

(27:08) - Red Sea Part Two

(30:48) - Rethinking Energy Routes

(35:11) - Oil Types, Geology Limits

(37:27) - Where To Follow Ed

(38:41) - Closing Thanks

Referenced in the Show:

Ed's Substack: https://edfin.substack.com/

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Thin Ice

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 15:15:00 -0500

Can't taste, can't smell, half a beer in - Marko puts his best foot forward for today's episode... And somehow it might be one of our best. The lads cover the Iran situation from every angle: why regime collapse is actually scarier than regime change, what a real 1973-style energy crisis looks like if the Strait goes dark, and why nobody - not allies, not neighbors - is rushing to Tehran's rescue. They dive into Trump's escort policy, the rules-based order debate, Ukraine hitting Russian oil infrastructure, and whether any of this even qualifies as a war. There's also some serious time spent debating Dubai - who it actually serves, whether its neutrality holds, and who could rival it as the next real safe haven. Throw in AI wargames going nuclear, Taiwan logic, brain drain, Venezuela as a leverage play, and a World War Z detour, and that's your episode :)

Timestamps:

(01:23) - Wisconsin field research

(02:22) - Thin ice markets framing

(04:38) - Yom Kippur energy shock

(07:51) - Regime collapse scenario

(12:00) - Iran capabilities and drones

(15:46) - Trump shipping insurance rant

(26:08) - Allies reactions and Europe

(30:05) - Spain politics and energy

(31:48) - Combat Operation Wordplay

(34:50) - Ukraine Hits Russian Oil

(37:11) - Rules Based Order Myth

(39:31) - Why No World War

(42:00) - Nukes Change Everything

(46:51) - How Many Countries Bombed

(50:10) - World War Incentives

(51:16 AI War Games Go Nuclear

(53:19) - Dubai Safe Haven Debate

(01:01:57) - UAE Risks And Rivals

(01:03:42) - Picking New Safe Havens

(01:05:14) - What Makes UAE Hard to Copy

(01:08:35) - Neutrality and No Opinions

(01:10:50) - Rubio Quote and Exit Ramps

(01:13:26) - Israel Tech Debate and Stats

(01:18:56) - Regional Hegemon and PR Problem

(01:25:05) - Gulf States Need Israel Intel

(01:35:26) - World War Z Detour

(01:37:05) - Venezuela Leverage and Wrap Up

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Iranian Leviathan Loses Its Head

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 17:00:00 -0500

The US and Israel struck Iran. Khamenei is dead. Marco got the biggest break of his career. And yet... the Islamic Republic lives on. The lads spend this episode digging into why this operation is less transformative than Twitter would have you believe.

History is clear: America doesn't have a great track record of turning regime change into geopolitical wins - Iraq, Libya, Syria, Venezuela... Iran will get a new Supreme Leader, probably a so-called "pragmatist" who was sanctioning protesters six weeks ago, but the operation won't end when Trump decides that it ends. So temper the triumphalism and strap in for another fun episode of "America Intervenes Without Doing the Math Beforehand."

Timestamps:

(01:01) - The Most Important Geopolitical Development This Week

(02:51) - Seguing Into Iran War

(04:48) - Regime Change Reality Check

(10:56) - Decapitation Strike Fallout

(12:20) - Saudi Angle And Gulf Targets

(13:50) - Hormuz And Market Shock

(19:26) - Drone War Asymmetry Risk

(22:46) - Trump Regime Calibration

(25:41) - Why Trump Could Do It

(33:02) - Is Iran A US Threat

(35:01) - Multipolar Message To World

(38:58) - Unipolar Limits

(40:24) - Deterrence Arms Race

(41:49) - Multipolar 19th Century

(44:24) - Is It About China

(47:46) - Strait of Hormuz Signal

(49:33) - Russia Oil Windfall

(51:31) - Missiles and Deal Logic

(53:58) - Eurasian Conflict Crescent

(55:53) - Iran Civil War Risk

(01:00:22) - Revolution Timing Debate

(01:05:17) - Israel Factor in Uprisings

(01:10:24) - Purim and Perceptions

(01:12:16) - Ahmadinejad Legacy

(01:15:44) - Wrap Up and Sign Off

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Board of Peace (And Other Jokes)

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 18:30:00 -0500

No notes, just two geopolitical degenerates (Jacob and Marko) running a full-court press on the week’s chaos. The lads spar over Trump’s “Board of Peace,” ask whether a U.S. strike on Iran is strategy or pure domestic theater, and map out what escalation could really look like - from drones in the Strait of Hormuz to oil shocks and asymmetric retaliation.

Then... they zoom out: nuclear proliferation in a multipolar world, Europe’s slow strategic awakening in Munich, and whether America’s foreign policy is performance art or hard power. It’s unscripted, blunt, and - annoyingly - extremely serious.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Beginning

(02:29) - Who Showed Up to the Beijing Parade & “Board of Peace”?

(04:24) - What Even Is the “Board of Peace”?

(07:32) - Iran Time!

(11:14) - Iran Capabilities & Asymmetry

(14:54) - Worst-Case Escalation

(25:36) - Trump’s “Punch-Then-Deal” Strategy

(33:06) - Did the US Miss the Protest Window?

(36:27) - So What Happens Next?

(39:26) - Why Airstrikes Became America’s Default

(40:45) - Geopolitics vs. US Domestic Politics

(42:35) - Nuclear Proliferation Returns

(48:18) - The Real Proliferation Risks

(54:20) - Clean Energy, Cartels, and Why States Control Nukes

(58:18) - Munich Security Conference Check-In

(01:06:20) - Europe’s Next Security Umbrella

(01:11:48) - Europe’s Demographics & Integration Debate

(01:15:57) - The Multi‑Ethnic Europe That Might Return

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Mailbag!

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 07:15:00 -0500

You've been writing us questions, thoughts, prayers, and lambasting criticism for months - so today we're finally taking a dive into the inbox. Holy crap there's a lot here. Y'all mentioned The Wire, TDSDS, starting careers in geopolitical analysis, tech nationalism, the balkanization of the internet, and sooooo much more. Tune in to hear it all :) Thanks y'all.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:33) - The Wire

(05:25) - Media Consumption and Bias

(06:46) - Trump Derangement Syndrome and Strategic Thinking

(16:16) - Effective Media Consumption Strategies

(28:23) - Balancing Realism and Idealism in Humanitarian Work

(35:28) - Navigating Career Dissonance

(35:56) - Breaking into Geopolitical Analysis

(37:16) - The Value of Mentorship

(39:39) - Building Expertise in Geopolitics

(41:27) - Creating and Sharing Content

(43:18) - The Importance of Learning and Adaptability

(44:59) - Geopolitical Decisions in Various Careers

(53:53) - Shadow Fleets and Oil Markets

(01:00:28) - Multipolar vs. Unipolar World Conflicts

(01:06:42) - Balkanization of the Internet

(01:09:25) - The Rise of Nationalism in Software

(01:10:36) - The Tension Between Tech Companies and Governments

(01:12:46) - The Impact of Snowden's Leak on American Tech

(01:13:26) - Trump's Influence on Tech Nationalism

(01:18:30) - Trump's Strategy for the Midterms

(01:29:53) - The Geopolitical Importance of the Midwest

(01:37:12) - The Future of Geopolitically Mundane Places

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The New Rules

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 07:00:00 -0500

The old playbook is dead. Iran isn’t collapsing quietly, Europe is finally admitting unanimity is a fantasy, Japan may be waking up politically and financially, and the UN is drifting toward irrelevance. Macro is no longer about central banks and spreadsheets... it’s about power, coercion, and political risk. If you’re still reading FOMC minutes to understand the world, you’re missing the point entirely.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:47) - Current Events

(02:00) - US-India Trade Deal Analysis

(04:58) - Iran-US Tensions and Potential Conflict

(38:45) - Germany's Push for a Two-Speed Europe

(49:04) - The Strategic Importance of Spain

(49:42) - Immigration and Economic Growth in Europe

(53:05) - Hungary and Serbia's Political Dynamics

(55:04) - Debunking Demographic Myths

(01:01:14) - The Decline of the United Nations

(01:07:29) - Japan's Political and Economic Future

(01:26:22) - The Role of the Federal Reserve

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Bias (The Sequel)

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 02:15:00 -0500

The lads pick up where they left off in last week's episode with bias, plus a break down a chaotic global moment. Jacob and Marko unpack Mark Carney’s Davos speech and Canada’s sudden geopolitical assertiveness, arguing it marks a clean break from the rules-based order. They connect Canada’s stance to Trump’s tariffs, U.S. domestic unrest, China’s internal turmoil, and mounting Middle East tensions—framing the week as evidence that power politics, not norms, now define the global system

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:08) - Current Global Events and Updates

(01:55) - Mark Carney's Geopolitical Moves

(03:09) - Analysis of Carney's Speech at Davos

(03:58) - Comparative Historical Speeches

(04:57) - Canada's Strategic Position and Response

(07:09) - Realpolitik and Global Power Dynamics

(08:56) - Implications for Future Geopolitical Strategies

(16:22) - The Role of Morality in International Relations

(29:10) - Underdogs and National Struggles

(34:23) - Pragmatic Foreign Policy Approaches

(35:23) - The Dangers of Morality in Foreign Policy

(36:17) - Critique of Mark Carney's Speech

(38:45) - Canada's Bold Moves Against Trump

(49:29) - The Iran Situation and Oil Prices

(53:33) - Domestic Issues: Minnesota and ICE

(01:07:14) - Grizzly History and Modern Comparisons

(01:07:50) - Personal Experiences and Political Commentary

(01:09:04) - Republican Backlash and Political Dynamics

(01:15:25) - Midwest Musings and Listener Feedback

(01:19:32) - China's Internal Dynamics and Geopolitical Risks

(01:26:05) - Taiwan Tensions and Future Predictions

(01:33:34) - Closing Thoughts and Future Plans

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Against Punditry

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 07:30:00 -0500

A chill manifesto against lazy thinking. A low-key diatribe about our preconceptions. Marko and Jacob take a second, amidst all the chaos of January 2026, to tear into the core failure of most geopolitical analysis - Bias. Real analysis means stripping away emotion, nationalism, and ego, then stress-testing your views until they break. From Trump and Canada to Russia, markets, and personal discipline, the point is simple: if you can’t argue the other side convincingly, you’re not an analyst—you’re a fan. --

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Today's word is....

(00:39) - Listener Feedback and Basketball Metaphors

(03:18) - Trump's Tariff Threats and Greenland

(05:25) - Canada's Strategic Partnership with China

(19:08) - Geopolitical Analysis and Bias

(43:26) - Dealing with Hate Mail and Identity

(43:55) - The Problem with Being Right

(44:09) - Kobe Bryant's Shot Chart and Analysis Integrity

(44:57) - Buddhism and Nihilism in Analysis

(45:37) - Finance and Objectivity

(47:29) - Bias in Finance and Politics

(52:12) - Physical Fitness and Analysis

(01:01:03) - Frameworks and Methodologies

(01:12:15) - Humor and Passion in Analysis

(01:15:02) - Final Thoughts on Being an Analyst

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Rot of Iran

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 08:00:00 -0500

Iran isn’t on the brink of some cinematic collaps - it’s rotting in place. Kamran Bokhari joins the boys to address the lazy “regime survives vs. regime falls” binary and looks at the reality of regime change: elite infighting, military power, succession chaos, and the slow erosion of state authority. Kamran lays out why decay, not revolution, is the base case - and why that mess matters far beyond Iran’s borders, reshaping regional power from Israel to Central Asia.

Timestamps:

(00:49) - Introducing Kamran and the Iranian Context

(01:43) - Iran's Political Landscape and Regime Stability

(05:03) - Historical Context and Regime Evolution

(09:06) - Internal Dynamics and Military Influence

(12:36) - Potential for Change and Succession

(16:40) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook

(24:52) - Economic Interests and Sanctions

(33:58) - Regional Influence and Strategic Interests

(45:10) - US Geostrategy and Burden Sharing

(46:08) - National Security Strategy and Spheres of Influence

(46:56) - Iran's Regional Influence and Internal Dynamics

(49:11) - Potential Civil War in Iran

(56:21) - Historical Context and Ethnic Composition of Iran

(01:02:19) - Geopolitical Implications of Iran's Situation

(01:11:39) - Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence

(01:24:33) - Final Thoughts and Broader Geopolitical Issues

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Weapons Grade Stupid

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 08:15:00 -0500

Look, if you’re still scrolling Twitter for shitty takes on why the Arctic is "strategic," do yourself a favor and put down your phone (after you hit play on this episode). It's a choke point for ICBMs and the GIUK gap, not a brand new new real estate discovery. Tada :) The real story isn't about rare earths or buying ice - it’s about the raw power disparity between a superpower and a NATO ally that’s historically had to swallow American sovereignty on its own soil.

Meanwhile, in Tehran, the "analytical trap" is to dismiss the protests as just another 2009. But with oil sub-$50, no off-ramps, and a regime showing actual cracks, the question isn’t if things change - it’s whether the IRGC is ready to trade an 87-year-old Supreme Leader for a seat at the table.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:57) - Iran's Economic Crisis and Protests

(02:49) - US-Iran Relations and Potential Outcomes

(11:57) - Historical Analogies and Regime Change

(17:21) - Greenland's Strategic Importance

(24:37) - US-Denmark Relations and Sovereignty Issues

(34:49) - Denmark's Historical Significance and WWII Heroics

(35:36) - The Stupidity of Invading Greenland

(35:54) - Republican Senators' Opposition

(37:44) - Senator Kennedy's Southern Charm

(40:34) - Trump's 19th Century Worldview

(41:31) - The Importance of NATO and Denmark's Role

(41:58) - Greenland's Resources and American Interests

(42:37) - Europe's Response to Trump's Greenland Obsession

(49:37) - Geopolitical Realities and American Ignorance

(01:01:34) - The Complexity of Geopolitical Analysis

Referenced in the Show:

Greenland Breakdown - https://jashap.substack.com/p/greenland

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Worst Takes on Venezuela

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 07:15:00 -0500

The Cousins™ dismantle the lazy myths swirling around Venezuela, U.S. power, and the idea that every successful strike is a reusable template. This is about oil, incentives, and why markets consistently misunderstand force until it’s already been applied. Most importantly, this episode is a warning against one of the most dangerous impulses in geopolitics: assuming yesterday’s clean win guarantees tomorrow’s easy one. When credibility is tested and restraint looks optional, the real risk isn’t chaos - it’s overconfidence.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(04:55) - Discussion on Venezuela and US Foreign Policy

(06:20) - Saudi Arabia's Economic Strategy and Oil Market Dynamics

(15:11) - Potential Geopolitical Moves: Iran, Cuba, and Greenland

(33:10) - Trump's Trolling Tactics

(33:26) - Venezuela's Impact on Trump's Strategy

(34:18) - Trump's Liberal Tendencies

(35:07) - Greenland and NATO Implications

(36:03) - Legal Constraints and Political Realities

(38:00) - Republican Party Dynamics

(39:09) - Geopolitical Myths and Realities

(50:27) - US Intervention History

(01:00:50) - Rare Earths and Global Strategy

(01:02:12) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Chuck Norris Premium (US invades Venezuela)

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 15:15:00 -0500

Welcome to another normal week in geopolitics - on your left, you'll see the Trump administration (allegedly) flying into Caracas at 1am and walking Nicolás Maduro out the door. No moral sermons, no democracy talk, just raw power politics, naked and unapologetic. Jacob and Marko unpack what this moment says about American empire, hypocrisy fatigue, regime change fantasies, and why history, from Panama to Iran, keeps repeating itself.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Podcast Announcement

(00:31) - US Attack on Venezuela: Initial Reactions

(02:11) - Historical Context of US Foreign Policy

(03:12) - Trump's Hypocrisy and US Foreign Policy Consistency

(03:49) - Marko's Perspective on the US Operation in Venezuela

(05:37) - Conspiracy Theories and Military Operations

(07:42 Implications of the US Operation in Venezuela

(11:56) - Potential Regime Change in Venezuela

(16:54) - Cuba as the Next Geopolitical Target

(27:42) - Latin America's Political Landscape and US Influence

(41:03) - Global Power Shifts and Resource Relevance

(41:45) - China's Influence in South America

(43:41) - Challenges of Economic Development in Latin America

(46:20) - Geopolitical Tensions and Regime Changes

(48:49) - The Chuck Norris Premium and Oil Prices

(01:04:28) - Middle Eastern Conflicts and Rivalries

(01:14:27) - Geopolitical Movies and Historical Events

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The (Geopolitical) Movies That Made Us

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 07:30:00 -0500

Geopolitics isn’t just policy memos and grim men in bad suits... it’s explosions, bad decisions, and unintended consequences (preferably set to a great score). The movies that we obsess over aren’t accidental; they’re training wheels for understanding power.

War films that explain absolutely nothing.

Spy thrillers where everyone is in the wrong.

Resource dramas where greed wins (reality?).

Collapse stories where systems rot from the inside.

Cinema is where geopolitics drops the pretense and tells the truth: states are insecure, leaders are flawed, and incentives matter more than intentions. Consider this a syllabus disguised as a watchlist - where empires rise, fall, and usually trip over their own feet along the way.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:54) - Categories of Geopolitical Movies

(04:44) - First Pick

(09:15) - Second Pick

(14:26) - Third Pick

(18:59) - Fourth Pick

(22:27) - Fifth Pick

(25:10) - Sixth Pick

(30:43) - Seventh Pick

(32:14) - Eighth Pick

(34:50) - Ninth Pick

(36:00) - Listen to find out :)

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob's List:

Marko's List:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Forecast 2026

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 07:45:00 -0500

Welcome to the future. In 2026, we're pretty convinced that the global map will get some major rewrites. Our '26 bingo card has the potential collapse of the Venezuelan and Cuban regimes, the end of the war in Ukraine, and the subsequent battle for Russia’s very soul crossed out. While others fear peaking deglobalization, Marko and Jacob see a path to lowered tariffs and an incoming LNG glut that finally breaks the back of Europe’s energy crisis. It’s time to stop looking for patterns and start preparing for the non-linear :) chaoschaoschaoschaos

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:16) - Forecasting 2026: Tariffs and Trade

(04:40) - US-China Relations and Latin America Focus

(11:03) - Predictions for Venezuela and Cuba

(13:55) - Ukraine War and Russian Politics

(23:57) - European Energy Market Outlook

(28:36) - Middle East: A Callous Perspective

(29:50) - Saudi Arabia and UAE: Progress and Predictions

(30:25) - Iran's Uncertain Future

(32:11) - Turkey's Role in Geopolitics

(33:08) - Oil Prices and Middle East Stability

(35:59) - Israel's Resilience and Market Impact

(39:42) - Forecasting Global Trade Agreements

(44:57) - The Rise of Robotics in 2026

(51:34) - Blind Spots and Unmentioned Regions

(54:41) - Final Thoughts and Potential Oversights

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Cocaine Cowboys

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 15:30:00 -0500

Look, the world is decoupling, and everyone is making their bet. Mexico just threw their chips on the table with 50% tariffs, effectively divorcing China to marry the U.S. in a desperate play for North American relevance. Meanwhile, the Andes are swinging hard right, betting that nationalism and market-pro policies are the only way to survive a multipolar free-for-all.... But here's the truth: tariffs are just a consumption tax in a MAGA hat, and if the Supreme Court kills them, the bond market is going to riot. Forget the politics; follow the robots and the revenue.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Welcome :)

(01:41) - Mexico's Tariff Decision

(07:44) - The Impact of Robotics on Manufacturing

(23:42) - Chile's Shift to the Right

(24:56) - Right-Wing Movements in Latin America

(31:22) - Crime and Immigration in Latin America

(38:13) - Montreal and Miami: Cities Built on Illicit Trafficking

(38:55) - The Godfather: An American Story of Crime and Legitimization

(40:14) - Fentanyl: Declared a Weapon of Mass Destruction

(42:38) - US Foreign Policy: Lessons from the 1980s

(46:05) - The Trump Administration's Controversial Policies

(56:44) - Supreme Court and Tariffs: A Critical Decision

(01:10:54) - Concluding Thoughts on US Policy and Economics

Referenced in the Show:

Fent is a WMD: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/designating-fentanyl-as-a-weapon-of-mass-destruction/

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Do Better

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 09:00:00 -0500

The global discourse has hit a new low: political commentators are creating content out of a YouTube moron’s mean-spirited quest for clicks. Nick Fuentes, please, for the love of god, do better. Marko and Jacob drill past the outrage to ask why "mean" has become the default setting for public life.

Then, Marko takes on the herculean task of defending the US' new National Security Strategy - which correctly identifies the need for a vital Europe, even if its authors got their core immigration data from clickbait white-woke channels. Finally, the real game: the US-Mexico-China trade triangle, where the path to American greatness may involve Chinese-built factories in Ohio.

It’s nihilism, baby.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Setting the Scene

(00:43) - Late Night Recording and Personal Updates

(01:40) - Controversial Discussion on Hitler and Nick Fuentes

(05:44) - Media's Role and Public Perception

(26:39) - National Security Strategy Debate

(34:28) - European Support for the Euro

(35:15) - American Perception of the EU

(38:27) - France and the Euro

(42:14) - Misdiagnosing Europe's Problems

(48:51) - US Seizes Venezuelan Oil Tanker

(56:54) - Mexico's Tariffs on Chinese Imports

(58:57) - US-China Relations and Manufacturing

(01:05:32) - Podcast Wrap-Up and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

National Security Strategy 2025 - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Ctrl, Alt, Del

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Let's talk about the National Security Strategy! American policy is entering its “choose-your-own-adventure” era, where fiscal dreams meet bond-market reality, and every global problem looks oddly like a mortgage-rate issue. What happens when primacy of nations collides with actual nations... some of which are run by people you wouldn’t trust with your lawnmower? Marko and Jacob step up to trade pitches on Trump’s “peace,” Venezuela’s theatrics, Honduras’ magical disappearing red lines, and whether geopolitics is now basically just offshore balancing with better PR. Enjoy!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Geopolitical Cousins

(01:14) - Raccoon Story and Algorithm Talk

(02:40) - Basketball and Leadership Analogies

(05:54) - Geopolitics Starts lol

(06:10) - Trump Accounts and Economic Policies

(21:17) - National Security Strategy Discussion

(47:04) - Critique of US Foreign Policy Rigidity

(47:18) - Pragmatism in US Foreign Policy

(47:35) - US Stance on Iran and Social Issues

(48:33) - Historical Context and Containment Policy

(49:24) - Flexible Foreign Policy and Realism

(50:37) - US Actions in Venezuela and Honduras

(56:38) - Venezuela's Oil and US Interests

(58:44) - Honduras' Strategic Importance

(01:01:55) - US Hypocrisy in Foreign Policy

(01:03:19) - National Security Strategy and Global Military Presence

(01:08:11) - Debate on Multipolar World and US Strategy

(01:23:14) - AI, Crypto, and National Security

(01:29:32) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

National Security Strategy Document - https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/2025-National-Security-Strategy.pdf

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Comrades and Fuehrers

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Rising political extremes, shifting alliances, and competing visions of global order collide as leaders improvise their way through economic anxiety and geopolitical recalibration. Matt Gertken hops into the fray to help the cousins probe the uncomfortable overlap between left-wing populism and right-wing nationalism, the strategic ambiguity surrounding Taiwan, and the high-stakes bargaining shaping the future of Ukraine. What happens when power politics, domestic fragility, and global insecurity all peak at the same time?

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Setup

(00:40) - Trump and Momani's Unlikely Friendship

(02:17) - Analyzing Trump's Political Moves

(13:05) - Japan-China Tensions Escalate

(17:54) - Geopolitical Implications for Taiwan

(30:20) - Russia-Ukraine Peace Plan Discussion

(37:19) - Europe's Commitment to Ukraine

(38:34) - Ukraine's Strategic Calculations

(39:21) - Ukrainian Public Sentiment

(40:43) - Debating Russia's Military Competence

(43:10) - The 28-Point Plan and Zelensky's Political Future

(43:34) - Economic Interests and Rebuilding Ukraine

(44:38) - Security Guarantees and Diplomatic Challenges

(56:50) - Trump's Role and Strategic Ambitions

(01:01:39) - Conspiracy Theories and Speculations

(01:02:40) - Debating China's Role in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

(01:03:50) - Speculating on Ukraine's Future and European Dynamics

(01:05:36) - Potential Outcomes of a Russia-Ukraine Peace Deal

(01:11:16) - Historical Analogies and Russia's Political Future

(01:21:06) - Geopolitical Shifts and the Role of China

(01:26:49) - Thanksgiving Anecdotes and Closing Remarks

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Starting Five: US Presidents

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko finally caved to the mob on X and did what everyone (one guy who asked nicely) keeps yelling at them to do - rank the top five geopolitical U.S. presidents and the bottom five disasters. Not the best presidents. Not the most “inspirational.” The most geopolitically competent… and the ones who should never have been allowed within 500 feet of foreign policy.

It gets spicy. Lincoln shows up with ruthless brilliance, Polk rolls in like the ultimate expansionist psychopath, Teddy swings a big stick (and probably breaks a few ribs), and then we get to the bottom five - where the real chaos lives.

Why do some leaders bend history while others trip over it? And what happens when the world’s biggest superpower forgets the stakes?

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Best Intro Ever

(00:42) - Listener Reactions and Content Expectations

(01:43) - Current Events and Personal Opinions

(02:37) - Coffee Rant and Personal Preferences

(05:07) - Geopolitical Anecdotes and Personal Stories

(09:58) - Top Five Geopolitical US Presidents

(14:10) - Debating Presidential Competence

(46:05) - Reagan's Foreign Policy and the Gulf War

(46:56) - George HW Bush's Strategic Decisions

(48:29) - Bush's Approach to China and Tiananmen Square

(49:54) - Theodore Roosevelt's Foreign Policy Legacy

(50:58) - Comparing Presidential Foreign Policies

(54:50) - Honorable Mentions and Controversial Picks

(01:10:17) - Worst Foreign Policy Presidents

(01:20:14) - LBJ's Economic and War Policies((01:21:14 George W. Bush's Foreign Policy Failures

(01:22:12) - The Impact of Al-Qaeda and the War on Terror

(01:26:07) - Truman's Geopolitical Blunders

(01:32:26) - Bill Clinton's Missed Opportunities

(01:39:36) - Eisenhower's Domino Theory and CIA Operations

(01:48:39) - Biden's Foreign Policy Critique

(01:59:18) - Final Thoughts and Reflections

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Communist Reagan

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Power tilts, voter moods, and economic pressures collide as shifting swing-state margins, rising price levels, and clashing visions of populism redefine the boundaries of U.S. politics. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro traces how competing narratives on inflation, governance, and national identity shape the struggles within both major parties, while global tensions - from tariff battles to uneasy U.S.-China rapprochement - raise the stakes. At its core lies a question: can the political center hold when every lever of power is pulled toward extremes?

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:58) - Personal Anecdotes and Flu Game Discussion

(02:43) - Client Call Story and Michael Jordan Stats

(04:32) - Health Updates and Podcast Menu

(05:14) - Democratic Election Victories Analysis

(06:20) - Republican Challenges and Latino Vote Shift

(08:19) - Potential Democratic Presidential Nominees

(17:27) - Inflation and Economic Policies Debate

(27:12) - Populism and Fiscal Policies

(42:24) - Supreme Court and Tariff Discussions

(45:56) - Uncertainty in Trade Policies

(46:42) - US-China Trade Deal Breakdown

(47:56) - Global Reactions and Comparisons

(49:06) - Public Opinion on Trade

(50:47) - Trump's Trade War and Its Implications

(52:03) - US-China Relations and Future Prospects

(01:11:58) - Venezuela and US Foreign Policy

(01:22:57) - The Future of Global Geopolitics

(01:34:06) - Conclusion and Upcoming Episodes

Referenced in the Show:

Communist Reagan - https://x.com/aidannonx/status/1982662832521875962?s=20

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Reverse Nixon

Sun, 26 Oct 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Sanctions, alliances, and power balances are shifting faster than markets can price them. Marko Papic and Jacob Shapiro look at the U.S. Treasury’s crackdown on Russian oil, the fragility of global energy flows, and the illusion of stability in a world built on competing pain thresholds. Between Washington’s brinkmanship, Moscow’s resolve, and Beijing’s quiet calculation, this episode dissects how endurance—not strategy—defines modern geopolitics, and why every great power eventually meets its limit.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Promotion

(00:20) - US-Russia Relations and Sanctions

(02:02) - Ukraine Conflict and Ceasefire Prospects

(06:03) - European Energy Dependence on Russia

(11:36) - Trump's Foreign Policy and Strategic Goals

(26:55) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(40:39) - The Limits of Military Power

(41:10) - China's Economic Leverage

(41:39) - The Trade War Dynamics

(42:26) - China's Manufacturing Dependency

(43:19) - The Challenge of Decoupling

(44:17) - China's Consumer Market Issues

(46:32) - The Future of US-China Relations

(52:42) - The Role of Semiconductors

(57:39) - The Reality of Trade Deals

(01:02:23) - Geopolitical Strategies and Misunderstandings

(01:05:25) - US Military Posturing in Venezuela

(01:15:34) - Trump's Military Strategy and Liberal Media Critique

(01:16:46) - Venezuela and Regime Change

(01:18:13) - North Korea and Trump's Near Miss

(01:19:22) - Maduro's Offer and US Interests

(01:28:11) - China's Role and Global Energy Politics

(01:38:03) - NBA Scandals and Player Dynamics

(01:47:47) - Baseball Playoffs and Personal Anecdotes

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Illusion of Decoupling

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Global trade isn’t just an economic story - it’s a test of power, pride, and patience. Jacob and Marko dive into the illusion of U.S.-China decoupling, exploring how power, dependency, and ideology are colliding in a world too connected to pull apart. From semiconductor choke points to rare earth retaliation, the United States and China are caught in a feedback loop of control and dependency that neither can fully escape. The cousins challenge the myth of economic sovereignty and ask what it really means to compete when every side still depends on the other to function.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:38) - Basketball Banter and Podcast Dynamics

(01:31) - Ryan Russillo's Move to Barstool Sports

(04:31) - US-China Trade Relations and Rare Earth Elements

(13:30) - Bureaucratic Inertia and US Foreign Policy

(17:45) - Technological Decoupling and Global Trade

(21:04) - Geopolitical Realities and Future Predictions

(40:15) - Allies and Economic Dependencies

(41:30) - American Public Opinion on Trade and China

(48:04) - Generational Differences in Political Activism

(50:02) - Global Protests and Political Unrest

(01:05:31) - Emergence of New Political Brands

(01:12:38) - Cocaine and Global Trade

(01:16:53) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The New Cold Peace

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 10:30:00 -0500

What happens when a superpower’s bluff runs out? Jacob and Marko trace Russia’s unraveling - from collapsing refineries and fading deterrence to the myth of its “paper bear” strength. They ask what real power looks like when fear no longer works, why Europe feels emboldened, and how Ukraine’s strategy is quietly rewriting modern warfare. Beyond the battlefield, the cousins explore the rise of “garrison states,” Gen Z unrest, and whether AI is revolution... or just another container ship.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:54) - Personal Anecdotes and Cultural Observations

(02:28) - Geopolitical Analysis: Russia and Ukraine

(06:19) - Strategic Insights: Ukraine's Tactical Moves

(09:16) - European Union and Ukraine Relations

(14:36) - Potential Outcomes and Future Scenarios

(18:43) - Economic and Political Implications

(32:38) - European Unity and Putin's Miscalculations

(34:21) - European Sentiment on Russia

(34:55) - Middle East Geopolitical Updates

(37:23) - Gen Z Protests Around the World

(41:31) - Generational Politics in the US

(48:44) - AI's Economic Impact

(01:08:02) - Debating the Future of AI and Marketability

(01:08:37) - Nostalgia and the Evolution of Computer Games

(01:10:03) - The Shift in Consumer Preferences

(01:11:52) - AI's Impact on Future Job Markets

(01:14:50) - US vs China: Different Approaches to AI

(01:15:42) - The Role of Tech Companies in AI Development

(01:26:31) - The Overbuild of Data Centers and Energy Needs

(01:30:28) - The Myth of AGI and True Innovation

(01:37:59) - Concluding Thoughts on AI and Innovation

Referenced in the Show:

AI Will Not Make You Rich — https://joincolossus.com/article/ai-will-not-make-you-rich/

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

17 Seconds or Less

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko and Jacob dive into the latest twists of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Marko makes the case that Russia’s size—once its biggest advantage—is now a glaring weakness, as Ukraine’s drones expose just how fragile pipelines, refineries, and infrastructure really are. Along the way, they poke fun at NATO’s cautious responses, revisit Poland’s not-so-quiet history, and question whether Russia is more paper kitty than paper tiger. It’s lively, skeptical, and very Papic.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - The AI Adoption Decline

(00:37) - Geopolitical Tensions: Russia, NATO, and Ukraine

(05:06) - The Impact of Drone Warfare

(11:59) - Russia's Strategic Vulnerabilities

(20:44) - Historical Context and Modern Implications

(26:30) - The Future of Russian Aggression

(45:37) - Debating Predictions and Hot Takes

(46:39) - American Foreign Policy and Trump's Role

(50:33) - H-1B Visa Controversy

(52:47) - The Impact on US-India Relations

(56:19) - The Role of Immigration in American Greatness

(01:05:45) - Jimmy Kimmel and Cancel Culture

(01:18:05) - Concluding Thoughts on Media and Politics

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Elon and Orwell

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Pokemon cards outperforming Meta, Cornell students skinning bears, and Elon Musk misusing Orwell... Welcome to this Geopolitical Cousins episode 25. Jacob and Marko continue their conversation about the assassination of Charlie Kirk, arguing that his killing was likely driven less by ideology and more simply a symptom of disaffected young men radicalized by social media and stripped of purpose. Drawing on Dostoevsky’s Raskolnikov and Richard Reeves’ research on boys, they trace how elite overproduction and information overload fuel unrest. Unlike Europe, America lacks historical “inoculation” against extremism. The discussion closed with Bolsonaro’s legal troubles in Brazil and Asia’s simmering political tensions.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:07) - Banter

(03:00) - Trivia

(09:58) - The Charlie Kirk Assassination Discussion

(12:13) - The Crisis of Manliness and Societal Impacts

(21:00) -Historical Context and Modern Parallels

(33:49) - Global Perspectives and Extremism

(46:11) - Political Turmoil in Asia

(46:47) - Charlie Kirk and Social Media Impact

(48:10) - Historical Reflections on Evil

(52:10) - Personal Anecdotes on Racism and Segregation

(53:35) - US Education Crisis and Ignorance

(57:33) - Civil Wars and State Capacity

(01:04:05) - Brazil's Political Drama: Bolsonaro's Trial

(01:17:27) - Geopolitical Tensions: Venezuela and Beyond

(01:21:10) - China's Moves in the South China Sea

(01:21:54) - Russia's Probing Tactics in Europe

(01:30:53) - Concluding Thoughts and EuroBasket Update

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Political Violence And Theater

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko open up today's emergency episode with a sobering reflection on the assassination of Charlie Kirk, part of a disturbing rise in U.S. political violence. They urge caution against rushing to assign motives before facts emerge, warning that both left and right are exploiting the tragedy for division. From there, the episode dives into another series of crises from Russian drones in Poland to Israeli strikes in Qatar, underscoring how geopolitics often blurs lines between theater and real escalation.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:23) - Assassination of Charlie Kirk

(02:22) - Political Violence in the US

(07:32) - Social Media's Role in Political Discourse

(17:29) - Poland and Russia Tensions

(33:13) - Israel's Attack on Qatar

(38:47) - Nation Building and Israeli Politics

(39:47) - Israel's Shift from Plausible Deniability

(40:20) - Ethnic Cleansing in Gaza

(40:52) - The Hubris of Israeli Strategy

(44:07) - The Impact on Israel's Brand

(50:16) - Nepal's Gen Z Uprising

(52:14) - Indonesia and South Asian Instability

(59:04) - Argentina's Economic Challenges

(01:09:07) - Trump's Tariffs and Legal Battles

(01:17:17) - Conclusion and Future Topics

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

We're So Back (It's So Over)

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 02:15:00 -0500

After battling several rounds of pneumonia, Jacob Shapiro rejoins the fray with Marko and tackles the whole month of missed content. The two spar over vaccine mandates and the cultural recycling of movies before turning to the economic disruptions posed by artificial intelligence. From there, the discussion moves to geopolitics: a hot-mic exchange between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping on longevity, the emergence of a multipolar world, India’s shifting diplomatic posture, and the Trump administration’s approach to Venezuela and trade. Welcome back!!!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome Back

(00:11) - Jacob's Health and Listener Comments

(02:17) - Vaccine Mandates and Public Health

(04:03) - Florida and Personal Anecdotes

(05:09) - Podcasting and Media Industry Insights

(07:20) - AI's Impact on Talent and Content Creation

(11:14) - Political Landscape and Aging Leaders

(17:30) - Geopolitical Dynamics and Multipolarity

(30:44) - China's Foreign Policy and Taiwan

(33:02) - US-India Relations and Recent Developments

(40:37) - Venezuela and US Military Actions

(45:16) - Debating Regime Change in Venezuela

(46:33) - Historical Examples of Regime Change

(48:10) - Trump's Approach to Foreign Policy

(50:28) - Analyzing Trump's Popularity by Issue

(53:56) - Economic Indicators and Future Predictions

(01:00:54) - The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

(01:05:07) - The Role of AI in Rising Electricity Costs

(01:08:02) - Political Landscape and Future Elections

(01:21:10) - EuroBasket and Basketball Insights

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

What The F*ck Is a Framework Trade Agreement???

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 13:00:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko roll out their first “Geopolitical Six Pack,” each bringing three key global developments to the table. They unpack the Trump-EU “framework” trade deal, argue over the strategic logic of tariffs, and assess Europe’s long game. From Taiwan’s volatile domestic politics to Trump’s AI policy pivot and Chinese tech strategy, the cousins explore how material wealth drives power in a multipolar world. Also on tap: India’s souring relations with the U.S., forgotten territorial disputes, and sleeper NBA picks. It’s freewheeling, irreverent, and insight-drenched—just don’t drink all six at once.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction to the Intellectual Six Pack

(01:34) - Beer Preferences and College Memories

(04:06) - Geopolitical Six Pack Concept

(05:49) - US-EU Trade Deal Analysis

(11:29) - Implications of the Trade Deal

(25:35) - Taiwan's Political Landscape

(38:21) - US Defense Strategy for Taiwan and Ukraine

(41:31) - Trump's Impact on US-India Relations

(47:19) - Trump's AI Strategy and US-China Tech Rivalry

(01:00:30) - Global Geopolitical Dynamics and Forgotten Territorial Disputes

(01:04:58) - Fantasy Basketball Draft Tips

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Putin’s Out of Time, Not Troops

Mon, 21 Jul 2025 12:00:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic dive into the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Trump’s evolving stance. They analyze Trump’s 50-day ultimatum to Putin, potential secondary sanctions, and U.S. weapons sales to NATO. The conversation critiques misconceptions about Trump’s loyalty, explores Putin’s domestic challenges, and assesses the potential for a ceasefire. The second half explores tariffs, inflation, and the global trade order, emphasizing Trump’s erratic strategic thinking and the long-term implications for U.S. alliances, particularly with Brazil, India, and Europe.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:18) - Catching Up on Global Events

(01:54) - Deep Dive: Russia-Ukraine Conflict

(03:56) - Trump's Stance on Russia and Ukraine

(06:02) - Putin's Challenges and Strategic Objectives

(09:37) - Potential Outcomes and Strategic Moves

(13:22) - Drone Warfare and Technological Advancements

(25:07) - Trademarking 'Paul Baba Bombadil'

(25:14) - Analyzing the Latest CPI Data

(26:13) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade Policies

(27:14) - Political Implications of Inflation

(28:22) - Market Perspective on CPI and Inflation

(31:38) - US Government's Role in Rare Earths

(33:17) - Trump's Trade Policies and Global Impact

(37:21) - Strategic Alliances and Global Trade

(40:54) - Trump's Approach to International Relations

(47:44) - Final Thoughts on Global Trade and Politics

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Realpolitik with Range (Trade Value Leaders Index P2)

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 09:00:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic deliver part two of their Trade Value Leaders ranking—a spirited, analytical exercise measuring global leaders by their geopolitical utility. Shapiro leans into controversial picks like Lula and Netanyahu, defends the logic behind selecting Orban, and emphasizes competence over charisma. Marko defends bold picks like Syria’s al-Julani and Hungary’s Orban, and pushes back on overrated legacy players (like Lula). The two dive into emerging talent like Albania’s Rama and Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev while voicing concern over leaders without clear succession plans. The top of the list features figures like Sheinbaum, Meloni, and MBS, with Trump and Putin notably excluded for strategic blunders. It’s a sharp, irreverent take on global leadership dynamics.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:58) - The Trade Value Leaders List

(03:53) - Controversial Picks and Listener Feedback

(06:27) - Deep Dives into Specific Leaders

(11:04) - Comparing Leaders to Basketball Players

(14:18) - The Legacy Question and Future Leaders

(20:27v Top Picks and Their Geopolitical Impact

(41:44) - Moral Equivalency Debate

(42:59) - Technical Difficulties and Top Two Leaders

(48:10) - Georgia Maloney's Economic Turnaround

(50:09) - Claudia Shane Baum's Leadership in Mexico

(52:01) - Discussion on Vladimir Putin's Leadership

(01:06:36) - Debate on Zelensky's Leadership

(01:19:02) - Xi Jinping's Strategic Missteps

(01:21:31) - China's Social Welfare Failures

(01:22:51) - Xi Jinping's Rise to Power

(01:24:35) - Xi Jinping's Nationalism and Economic Policies

(01:26:03) - Xi Jinping's Challenges and Leadership Style

(01:28:58) - Debating Xi Jinping's Impact

(01:37:38) - Trump's Leadership and Controversies

(01:42:07) - Evaluating Trump's Domestic and Foreign Policies

(02:04:42) - Final Thoughts on Trump and Leadership Rankings

Referenced in the Show:

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

The Trade Value Leader Index

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic debut a provocative “Trade Value Index” - ranking the top 30 global leaders by geopolitical and economic value, modeled after Bill Simmons’ NBA Trade Value framework. They debate each pick based on leadership effectiveness, economic performance, future potential, and strategic skill. Categories include “products of the system,” “flawed but effective,” and “miracle workers.” The episode mixes deep geopolitical analysis with irreverent commentary and playful competitiveness, offering both serious insight and tongue-in-cheek takes on today’s most powerful politicians. Part two will feature a full debate on their final lists.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:40) - Concept of Trade Value in Politics

(03:56) - Ranking Criteria and Methodology

(10:22) - Initial Rankings: 26-30

(13:30) - Discussion on Initial Rankings

(21:08) - Flawed but Effective Leaders

(29:53) - Unproven Gems

(38:13) - Competent but Boring Leaders

(41:51) - Diamonds Under Pressure

(44:52) - Lula and Bolsonaro: The Biden Comparison

(45:10) - Victor Orban: The Smart Tactician

(45:54) - Benjamin Netanyahu: The Politician's Politician

(46:55) - Javier Millet: Crypto Ron Paul Meets Steve Jobs

(48:01) - Narendra Modi: The Twilight of a Career

(52:40) - Diamonds Under Pressure: Eddie Rama and Cyril Osa

(53:16) - Naive Bukele: The Perfect Man for the Era

(58:52) - Shigeru Ishiba: The Tragic Hero of Japan

(01:02:25) - Top Leaders: From Pedro Sanchez to Georgia Maloney

(01:19:12) - Final Thoughts

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic discuss the aftermath of the Iran-Israel war, analyzing President Trump's controversial claims of obliterating Iran's nuclear program and the broader geopolitical implications. They critique the media's response, evaluate future scenarios for Iran—including regime stability or shifts toward authoritarianism—and express concerns over instability potentially spreading to Iraq. They also review recent developments from the NATO summit, including European commitments to increase defense spending, Trump's relationship with NATO allies, and growing tensions with Asian partners like Japan and South Korea.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:05) - Postmortem on the Iran-Israel War

(02:03) - Debate on the Iran Nuclear Program

(06:35) - Media and Political Reactions

(17:13) - Iran's Domestic Politics and Future Scenarios

(31:27) - The JCPOA and Its Shortcomings

(32:23) - Iran's Influence in Iraq

(36:12) - The Kurdish Opportunity

(37:17) - NATO Summit and Defense Spending

(42:53) - Global Military Spending Insights

(50:02) - Trump's Influence on NATO

(56:02) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

America Strikes Iran

Sun, 22 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko break down the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites, unpacking the strategic logic, historical echoes, and likely retaliation scenarios. They debate the possibility of regime change, Iranian restraint, and why Strait of Hormuz closure is the true red line. The cousins also explore Trump’s foreign policy instincts, the limits of multipolarity, and why the Middle East keeps repeating itself. It’s fast, fiery, and packed with geopolitical clarity...and Tupac.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Emergency Announcement

(00:48) - Opening Remarks and Personal Notes

(01:14) - US-Iran Conflict Overview

(01:49) - Iran's Response and Global Reactions

(04:58) - Historical Context and Comparisons

(07:05) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations

(07:48) - Regime Change and Internal Dynamics

(09:01) - Global Implications and Multipolarity

(33:26) - Terrorism and Security Concerns

(41:57) - Bannon's Point and West LA

(42:48) - World War III Threat Analysis

(43:19) - Iran's Strategic Moves

(44:31) - Empirical Evidence and Predictions

(48:18) - Iran's Retaliation and US Response

(55:20) - Trump's Foreign Policy in a Multipolar World

(01:16:30) - Global Stability and Instability

(01:20:05) - NBA Trade and Game 7 Predictions

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Shapiro LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Jacob Shapiro Substack: jashap.substack.com/subscribe

Marko’s Book & Newsletter: www.geopoliticalalpha.com/marko-papic

Marko’s Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko’s Twitter: https://x.com/Geo_papic

Marko’s Macro & Geopolitical Research at BCA: https://www.bcaresearch.com/marketing/geomacro

To Bomb or Not To Bomb

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic respond to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. They unpack the potential for U.S. airstrikes, the unraveling MAGA coalition, and the fantasy of regime change in Iran. Marko draws parallels to the 1999 NATO campaign in Serbia, warning against simplistic assumptions about military power. Jacob proposes four scenarios for Iran’s future, while both discuss broader geopolitical implications, from China’s stance to weakening U.S. influence. They close by calling for a modern-day Congress of Vienna—perhaps hosted at Mar-a-Lago—to manage global conflict in a multipolar world.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Setting the Scene: Current Geopolitical Climate

(01:12) - Israel-Iran Tensions and MAGA Camp Dynamics

(04:59) - Debating Regime Change and Airstrikes

(11:04) - Historical Context: Lessons from Serbia

(16:10) - Potential Scenarios for Iran's Future

(27:11) - US Politics and Foreign Policy Implications

(35:21) - Comparing the Iran-Iraq War to Current Conflicts

(35:37) - The Dynamics of the Iran-Iraq War

(37:44) - Potential Global Repercussions

(39:58) - The Myth of the China Block

(41:13) - The Role of the US and Its Allies

(42:21) - The Impact on Global Markets

(45:02) - Technological Advancements in Warfare

(47:53) - The Need for a New Global Congress

(59:02) - Historical Precedents for Global Cooperation

(01:08:06) - The Decline of International Law

(01:08:16) - Charismatic Authority in Foreign Policy

(01:08:59) - Institutions vs. Concerts

(01:10:01) - The Role of the United Nations

(01:10:51) - The Concert of Europe Concept

(01:11:14) - Challenges of Charismatic Authority

(01:11:51) - Legitimacy and Spheres of Influence

(01:13:55) - Historical Context and Modern Implications

(01:16:17) - The Need for a New Global Order

(01:21:39) - Hypothetical Scenarios and Real-World Applications

(01:29:14) - Breaking News and Current Events

(01:37:56) - Concluding Thoughts and Future Speculations

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Israel Strikes Iran

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic react in real time to Israel’s stunning military strikes on Iran. With key nuclear sites hit and top Iranian commanders killed, the cousins break down what this means for Iran’s capacity to retaliate, the role (or lack thereof) of U.S. strategy, and why Saudi Arabia’s response might be the most important of all. They explore the domestic politics behind Netanyahu’s actions, whether regime change is possible, and why oil markets barely flinched. A wide-ranging, unscripted conversation during a rapidly unfolding moment in Middle Eastern—and global—geopolitics.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:27) - Initial Reactions and Context

(01:22) - Details of the Israel-Iran Conflict

(03:45) - Analysis of Military Actions

(08:11) - Geopolitical Implications

(17:48) - Potential Outcomes and Speculations

(32:52) - Civil War and Japan's Example

(33:25) - NATO's Campaign Against Serbia

(34:13) - Israel's Military Capabilities

(36:45) - US Options and Iran's Response

(38:46) - Conspiracy Theories and South Park

(41:36) - Iran's Limited Retaliation Options

(44:38) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Outlook

(56:34) - Closing Thoughts on Multipolarity

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Manufactured Chaos

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko and Jacob unpack the media frenzy and political theater surrounding the ICE raids and escalating protests in Los Angeles. Marko cuts through the noise, calling out the mutually parasitic relationship between Trump and the media, and argues that California’s political posturing may hint at deeper national fissures. They dig into immigration hypocrisy, federal overreach, and the geopolitical implications of a fragmented U.S. They also examine Trump’s pivot on China, the unraveling of the Elon alliance, and whether America’s populist moment is morphing into something more centrist—while the real victims, as always, are the self-driving cars.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:32) - Los Angeles in Turmoil

(04:38) - Media's Role in the Crisis

(10:14) - Immigration and Policy Debate

(16:33) - Federal vs. State Authority

(34:00) - Economic and Trade Implications

(43:34) - Populism and Political Strategy

(44:29) - Populist Policies and Economic Impact

(46:08) - Immigration Policies and Political Shifts

(47:04) - Italy's Political Landscape and Georgia Maloney

(50:16) - US-China Trade Relations and Economic Strategies

(52:28) - Immigration and US Demographics

(01:16:41) - California Secession and US Political Polarization

(01:32:48) - Future Topics

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Marko Papic Twitter: x.com/geo_papic

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The New Age of Making Stuff (or Pretending To)

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko tears into the political class’s inability to talk about industrial policy without veering into Cold War nostalgia. He and Jacob unpack why tariffs are back—not as economic tools, but as cultural signals. Marko argues that globalization was always a political project, and it’s unraveling just as planned. From American washing machines to European defense contracts, the cousins trace how manufacturing, war, and narrative-building collide. Jacob tries to keep things historical; Marko’s too busy declaring the return of geoeconomics. Also: French nukes, German industry, and why the U.S. needs a better plan than “make things somewhere else.”

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction and Episode Overview

(00:11) Welcoming New Listeners

(00:18) Debate on Globalization and Tariffs

(00:57) Listener Feedback and Engagement

(01:54) Marco's Haircut Story

(02:41) Purpose of the Podcast

(10:31) Debate on Tariffs and Globalization

(41:21) The Decline of American Car Manufacturing

(42:29) The Washing Machine Revolution

(43:07) The Impact of Tariffs on Innovation

(43:38) Debating Historical Trade Policies

(46:14) The Role of Industrial Capacity in War

(49:06) Globalization and Redistribution of Wealth

(54:05) The 2008 Financial Crisis and Corporate Bailouts

(56:13) The Future of Manufacturing and War

(59:27) The Reality of War Footing and Defense Spending

(01:08:22) The Ideological Debate on Globalization

(01:14:05) Reflecting on Historical Conflicts with China

(01:14:28) Proxy Wars and America's Capabilities

(01:15:05) US-China Relations and Economic Strategies

(01:17:41) Technological Advancements and National Security

(01:30:30) The Future of Warfare and Global Power Dynamics

(01:30:53) Operation Spiderweb: Ukraine's Drone Attack on Russia

(01:33:35) Implications of Drone Warfare on Global Security

(01:39:12) The Evolution of Warfare and the Role of Technology

(01:45:58) The Future of Nation States in a Technologically Advanced World

Referenced in the Show:

Why Ukraine War's Deadly Drones Are Now Flying By 12-Mile-Long ‘Wires' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cLA_qgl2YYs&t=822s

Why This Russian Drone Developer Isn’t Impressed by U.S. Tech - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RmfNUM2CbbM&t=865s

Geopolitics of Dune – https://geopoliticalfutures.com/the-geopolitics-of-dune/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Geopolitical Cousins is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Uber-Manliness

Thu, 29 May 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko kicks off this week’s episode with a takedown of Middle East punditry, arguing that Biden’s calm, calculated response to Iran’s attack on Israel is exactly what stability looks like in a multipolar world. While Jacob frets over deterrence and mixed signals, Marko doubles down: ambiguity is the new clarity. They unpack India’s chaotic yet predictable election, game out what a third Modi term could mean for trade and alliances, and roll their eyes at the latest BRICS buzz. Also: Taylor Swift’s soft power, Saudi predictability, and why global order now runs on vibes, oil, and opportunism.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:48) - Early Morning Dedication and Strategist Life

(01:38) - Father Moses and the Rise of Manliness

(04:12) - Orthodox Christianity Explained

(06:14) - Russian Orthodox Church and Geopolitical Influence

(11:04) - Cultural Shifts and Masculinity Crisis

(15:23) - Debating Modern Masculinity and Education

(17:42) - Political and Social Commentary

(22:44) - Climate Change and Policy Critique

(27:30) - The Role of Media and Public Figures

(42:14) - Personal Stories and Reflections

(46:44) - Toxic Masculinity and the Cornell Glee Club

(47:08) - Russia's Offensive Immigration Policy

(48:08) - The West's Immigration Strategy

(50:57) - Impact of Immigration Policies on Education

(56:20) - US Deficit and Fiscal Policies

(01:28:59) - NBA Finals and Geopolitical Implications

Maple Syrup and Soft Power

Thu, 22 May 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko and Jacob wrap up their Geopolitical Power Draft, spar over Canada’s place in the top 10, and debate whether demographics or tech will shape the next world order. Marko defends Canada with maple syrup, AI, and ag exports, while Jacob sides with rivers, realpolitik, and skepticism. They explore honorable mentions like the UAE, Rwanda, and a hypothetical Nordic Union, and ask whether non-state actors or city-states will dominate geopolitics. The episode is equal parts spirited bickering, big-picture theorizing, and long-shot speculation. Also: beavers, bunkers, and why Israel might be past its geopolitical prime.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:25) - Geopolitical Power Draft Recap

(04:40) - Debating the Draft Picks

(06:32) - Analyzing Geopolitical Power

(17:00) - Honorable Mentions and Speculative Picks

(34:09) - Final Thoughts and Adjustments

(36:48) - Switching Japan and Iran

(37:07) - Argentina and Indonesia Reordering

(37:53) - Brazil's Regional Power

(39:03) - Canada's Geopolitical Position

(39:17) - Mexico's Potential Power Projection

(39:46) - Canada's Strengths and Weaknesses

(41:37) - Comparing Canada to Other Nations

(45:42) - Technological Innovation in Canada

(55:36) - Geopolitical Analysis and Predictions

(01:06:32) - US Debt and Fiscal Policy

(01:14:30) - Trump's Fiscal Policies and Tax Cuts

(01:16:00) - Medicaid and Welfare Cuts

(01:17:10) - Senate's Role in Budget Approval

(01:18:29) - Trump's Stance on Medicaid

(01:20:54) - Bond Market and Budget Cuts

(01:24:10) - Israel and Anti-Zionism Debate

(01:38:58) - South Africa's Racial Tensions

Our 2025 Geopolitical Power Draft

Thu, 15 May 2025 02:15:00 -0500

The cousins return with chaos, caffeine, and an inaugural Geopolitical Power Draft - but not before Marko rants about Gulf monarchies, Trump’s diplomatic plane deals, and why Saudi Arabia might out-liberal Israel by 2050. He skewers Western pearl-clutching, explains why Qatar owes him a jet, and declares multipolarity the new default. Along the way: why Zelensky outmaneuvered Putin, how Xi is courting Latin America, and why the UAE is quietly winning the AI arms race. Then it’s time to pick global power players for the next 30 years. Marko’s playing 5D chess with industrial policy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(01:00) - Geopolitical Analysts and Air Travel

(02:45) - US Foreign Policy and Gifts

(07:43) - Middle East Developments

(23:13) - Saudi Arabia's Transformation

(41:44) - Geopolitical Draft Introduction

(45:51) - Geopolitical Power Index and Geopolitics as an Art

(47:00) - Quantitative vs Qualitative Analysis in Geopolitics

(47:20) - Defining Power and Influence

(48:37) - Non-Linearity and Future Predictions

(48:53) - Nuclear Power and Population Debates

(49:07) - Critique of Demographic Obsession

(51:09) - American Power and Multipolarity

(54:01) - China's Position and Challenges

(59:09) -European Union and Western Europe

(01:04:05) - Turkey's Strategic Importance

(01:08:16) - India's Potential and Challenges

(01:11:56) - Russia's Geopolitical Influence

(01:13:45) - South Korea's Technological Edge

(01:16:31) - Brazil's Agricultural and Manufacturing Future

(01:17:03) - Canada's Strategic Advantages

(01:18:47) -Iran's Potential Resurgence

(01:19:56) - Argentina's Reform and Innovation

(01:20:48) - Singapore's Strategic Position

(01:21:30) - Saudi Arabia's Regional Influence

(01:22:11) - Japan's Resilience

(01:22:32) - Ukraine's Future as a Garrison State

(01:24:21) - Conclusion and NBA Thoughts

TikTok Dictators and the End of Hegemony

Mon, 12 May 2025 02:15:00 -0500

This week, the cousins speed-run chaos: Houthis hitting Israel, Trump cutting side deals, and Jordan taking heat for not hosting enough sick kids from Gaza. Marko argues that the U.S. is done playing global babysitter, and that might actually be stabilizing. They dig into Israel’s delusions of American loyalty, Burkina Faso’s TikTok dictatorship, and Marko's new theory: “geopolitical tightening.” Jacob’s worried about nukes and future AI plagues, but Marko says multipolarity forces adults to act like, well, adults. Oh, and if President Traoré of Burkina Faso is listening: We accept consulting fees in gold or viral video cameos.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Overview

(01:16) - Middle East Tensions: King Abdullah, Houthis, and Trump

(06:39) - Israel's Strategic Challenges

(11:56) - Jordan's Geopolitical Balancing Act

(22:30) - Burkina Faso's Social Media Strategy

(29:13) - The President's Social Media Strategy

(30:38) - Geopolitical Challenges in Burkina Faso

(31:29) - The Role of Gold in Global Politics

(34:10) - Global Perception of US Tariffs

(36:20) - Hegemonic Stability and Global Order

(44:35) - The Impact of Nuclear Weapons on Global Conflict

(54:08) - China's Potential as a Global Hegemon

(56:34) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

A Jew and a Nihilist Talk About The Pope

Mon, 05 May 2025 02:15:00 -0500

After a whirlwind of parenting, flights, and failed schedules, the cousins are back with overreactions and the U.S. dollar’s free fall. They riff on Chinese tech breakthroughs... but Marko's still not buying BYD over a German car. Europe? Left for dead, so maybe it’s time to buy? Jacob freaks out over India-Pakistan tensions, while Marko tries to keep us from launching WWIII. They also touch on Trump’s Nobel dreams, Pope predictions, and why Japan just became the spiciest trade negotiator in the room. Plus: rice diplomacy and NBA despair.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Announcements

(00:51) - Catching Up After a Busy Week

(01:56) - Overreactions Segment Introduction

(03:51) - First Overreaction: US Dollar Decline

(13:19) - Second Overreaction: China's Tech Advancements

(22:55) - Third Overreaction: Europe's Geopolitical Decade

(26:01) - Fourth Overreaction: Trump Administration's Peace Dividend

(31:43) - Discussion on the Vatican and the Pope

(33:15) - Conspiracy Theories and Pope Francis

(34:34) - The Future of the Papacy

(35:52) - Trump as Pope?

(36:55) - The Role of the Vatican

(40:06) - Global Politics and Religion

(41:50) - Canada and Australia Elections

(46:51) - Japan's Trade Stance

(52:29) - India-Pakistan Tensions

(56:04) - Multipolar World Conflicts

(01:03:36) - NBA Playoffs and Predictions

The Tip of a Peninsula with a Bunch of Crazy People

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Marko unloads on the myth that austerity worked in Greece, calling out lazy linear thinking, Eurozone nerds with Excel models, and Paul Krugman’s fantasy economics. He explains how Greece’s turnaround was real - but not for the reasons anyone thinks - and why Syriza’s U-turn was political heroism, not betrayal. The conversation pivots to India, where Modi is playing the U.S., China, and Europe against each other with tariff diplomacy. Plus: Ottoman nostalgia, Donbas deadlock, and why even ISIS prefers Toyotas.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:17) - Greece's Economic Turnaround

(03:00) - Debating Austerity and Economic Policies

(07:33) - Greece's Political Landscape and Reforms

(12:17) - Comparing Greece and Brexit

(30:19) - India's Market and Global Trade Dynamics

(37:43) - The Importance of Foreign Competition in Domestic Markets

(40:33) - The Impact of Tariffs on the Auto Industry

(43:53) - India's Strategy Towards Foreign Auto Companies

(45:12) - Russia-Ukraine Conflict Update

(53:15) - Trump's Tariff Policies and Their Implications

(56:23) - The Future of US Trade Deals

(01:03:42) - Concluding Thoughts on Trade and Geopolitics

Let Them Drink Bleach

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Trump's tariff chaos isn’t strategy - it’s a policy car crash in slow motion. Jacob Shapiro and Marko Papic walk listeners through how we got here: tariffs based on 6th grade math, no off-ramps, and the U.S. launching a trade war… against everyone. Meanwhile, the rest of the world’s like, cool, we’ll just trade with each other. This isn’t about toaster prices—it’s about the U.S. exporting its own recession. If April 9th isn’t the pivot, buckle up.

Come for the analysis; stay for Marko’s tortured basketball metaphor at the end.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:32) - Unexpected Market Concerns

(01:43) - Tariffs and Market Reactions

(03:33) - Global Trade Dynamics

(05:06) - Impact on US Industries

(12:39) - Agricultural and Energy Sectors

(19:30) - Global Economic Shifts

(26:43) - Trump's Acceleration and Structuralism

(27:04) - Insane Policymaking and Tariffs

(28:17) - The Importance of Due Process

(29:13) - Arbitrary Policies and Financial Concerns

(33:20) - Market Timing and Optimism

(36:37) - Geopolitical Constraints and Future Outlook

(44:00 ) - Kevin Durant and Trade Barriers Analogy

(49:19) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Riding on the Hog of a Fiscal Orgy

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit

(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions

(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies

(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics

(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis

(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War

(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions

(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade

(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations

(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate

(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments

(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing

(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan

(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan

(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken

(54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation

(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths

(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets

(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia

(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy

(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle

(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court

(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right

(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics

Referenced in the Show:

Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

Get Off Our Lawn!

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko make a cousins episode happen even as Jacob is moving into a new office and Marko is on the road – at one point he was literally recording from a bathroom at a hotel in Fort Lauderdale because that is the only place he could get WiFi. What other podcast hosts have that kind of dedication? None! This week the cousins tackle Trump’s latest bevy of tariff threats, discuss the improvement in India/China relations, and close with some lessons to learn from the ongoing protests in Serbia.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(03:04) - US Tariffs

(07:42) - Potential Domestic and Global Reactions to Tariffs

(14:17) - Challenges in Renegotiating Trade Deals

(28:58) - India-China Border Disputes and Economic Implications

(32:17) - India and China: Complementary Economies

(44:18) – Serbia/Turkey/Indonesia

(53:59) – Over/under

Will the U.S. go to War with Iran?

Sun, 23 Mar 2025 02:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(31:00) - Turkey

(46:00) – Indonesia

(58:00) – China

(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft

F*cking Around and Finding Out

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 02:15:00 -0500

The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots.

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) - Approach and Precepts

(11:00) – Net Assessments

(18:44) – Multipolarity

(34:19) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy

(42:44) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(47:42) – Inflation and pain thresholds

(52:27) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies