The Jacob Shapiro Podcast

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The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The Froth of Grift

Mon, 12 May 2025 03:45:00 -0500

In this episode, Jacob Shapiro sits down with Matt Pines, who somehow manages to be both a national security thinker and a Bitcoin whisperer, to talk through the Trump administration’s pivot toward crypto, why Bitcoin has suddenly gone strategic, and what it tells us about where the global economy might be headed. They dig into the politics, the policy confusion, and the deeper structural shifts behind the headlines. From U.S.-China competition to financial fragmentation, Matt breaks it down without hype - and helps us try to make sense of how a meme coin presidency ended up building a Bitcoin embassy. It’s a wild, smart ride.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(00:37) - Welcoming Matt Pines

(01:27) - Matt's Career Journey

(02:45) - Bitcoin Policy Institute

(06:21) - Consulting Industry Insights

(12:31) - Trump's Shift on Bitcoin

(19:16) - Strategic Importance of Bitcoin

(26:56) - US-China Relations and Bitcoin

(35:53) - Lutnick vs. Bass: A Clash of Personalities

(37:13) - Liberation Day and Strategic Shifts

(39:38) - The Trade War's Financial Fallout

(41:41) - Bitcoin's Role in a Changing World

(43:49) - US Strategy and Bitcoin Integration

(47:01) - Global Power Dynamics and Bitcoin

(57:31) - The Deep State and Elite Civil Wars

(01:05:42) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

The Reverse Currency Crisis That Isn’t

Fri, 09 May 2025 03:45:00 -0500

This week, Jacob’s caffeinated and Rob is just trying to keep us on track as the duo dive into the so-called “Asian reverse currency crisis,” a spike in Asian FX that’s less a crisis and more the result of twenty-five years of carry trades finally snapping. We break down what it means for the dollar, for diversification, and for the poor bastards running Taiwanese insurance portfolios. Then: Trump wants tariffs on foreign movies (seriously), Saudi Arabia starts pumping oil like it’s 2019, and we finish with why empty shelves might be the most underpriced risk in markets right now. Buckle up.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Overview

(00:44) - Recording on a Tuesday: Unusual Timing

(01:53) - Taiwanese Dollar Surge: A Financial Analysis

(03:21) - Asian Financial Crisis: Historical Context

(05:46) - Implications for Global Markets

(22:16) - Investment Strategies for a Multipolar World

(25:26) - Trump's Tariff on Foreign Movies: A Soft Power Debate

(36:38) - US Soft Power: A Decline in Influence

(41:49) - Saudi Arabia's Oil Strategy

(46:25) - Global Oil Market Dynamics

(57:53) - Impact of Tariffs on US Retail

(01:05:41) - Geopolitical Tensions and Future Outlook

(01:06:39) - Conclusion and Contact Information

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The Indus Waters Are Getting Hot

Wed, 07 May 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Kamran Bokhari answers the bat signal to join Jacob Shapiro for a wide-ranging conversation on the spike in India-Pakistan tensions following the Kashmir attack - and why it’s not just business as usual. They unpack the strategic logic (or lack thereof) behind Pakistan’s moves, India’s dilemma over deterrence, and the escalating risk of regional miscalculation. They also dig into the broader Middle East: Iran’s negotiations, Houthi missiles, and whether the U.S. is quietly brokering a regional reset. Kamran sees threads tying it all together; We're still trying to figure out if that’s optimism or a warning. Either way, something’s shifting... and fast.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(00:56) - Current Geopolitical Tensions

(01:56) - India-Pakistan Relations and Kashmir Conflict

(02:43) - US-India Strategic Partnership

(04:47) - Recent Attacks and Speculations

(07:51) - Historical Context and Recent Developments

(11:36) - Potential Escalations and Strategic Moves

(21:52) - Indus Waters Treaty and Diplomatic Channels

(26:15) - Regional Dynamics and Future Outlook

(27:11) - China's Strategic Interests in South Asia

(28:21) - India's Two-Front Dilemma

(29:43) - China's Potential Responses

(31:30) - Middle East Geopolitical Threads

(33:23) - Iran Nuclear Deal and Regional Implications

(40:49) - US Strategy in the Middle East

(45:49) - Syria's Role in Regional Stability

(50:18) - Concluding Thoughts and Optimism

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Latinos for Trump (But Make It Complicated)

Fri, 02 May 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/

In this episode, Jacob sits down with Elohim Monard for a sharp, layered conversation about Hispanic support for Trump, the politics of deportation, and how authoritarianism creeps in under the banner of law and order. They talk about prisons as geopolitical tools, from El Salvador’s extreme model to France’s cocaine-fueled chaos, and whether Trump’s policies are building a regime of fear among immigrants and international students. Elohim brings the receipts, the nuance, and the global view. They also get into AI, startup governments, and why the next global threat may be the hyper-globalization of organized crime. Buckle up.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:29) - Conversation with Elohim Ard Begins

(04:43) - Hispanic Support for Trump: Analysis and Polls

(08:58) - Deportation and Its Impact on the Hispanic Community

(11:00) - Midterms and Hispanic Voting Trends

(17:37) - Judicial and Federal Tensions in the US

(22:56) - International Students and US Policies

(26:19) - Future Prospects and Exit Plans

(29:58) - Global Academia: Opportunities and Challenges

(31:24) - Considering China for Academic Pursuits

(32:43) - Geopolitics of Prisons: A Global Perspective

(34:38) - El Salvador's Controversial Prison Policies

(52:59) - The Role of AI in Modern Governance

(57:48) - Final Thoughts and Farewell

Referenced in the Show:

Conversando de Pol ítica - https://www.conversandodepolitica.com/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The Pahalgam Terrorist Attack

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro is joined by Akshar Patel from The Emissary to unpack the rapidly escalating crisis between India and Pakistan after a deadly terrorist attack in Kashmir. They cover what happened, why this attack is different, and why India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is such a big geopolitical shift. Akshar breaks down Pakistan’s internal fractures, India’s military limitations, and how water is becoming a pressure point in South Asia. This isn’t just saber-rattling... it’s a slow burn with existential stakes.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:21) - Current Tensions Between India and Pakistan

(01:10) - Podcast Format and Guest Perspective

(02:04) - Discussion on Recent Terrorist Attack

(09:18) - Historical Context and Analysis

(19:34) - Indian Government's Response and Military Trust Issues

(25:23) - Potential Motivations and Future Implications

(28:24) - Personal Anecdote and Broader Context

(29:01) - A High Schooler's Question on Chechnya

(29:33) - Why Does India Want Kashmir?

(30:28) - Historical Context of Kashmir Conflict

(32:55) - Civilizational and Secular Significance of Kashmir

(36:36) - Geopolitical Importance of Water

(38:25) - Potential Military Conflicts and Strategies

(48:04) - Global Diplomatic Dynamics

(56:31) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Go Where The Fiscal Is

Mon, 28 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Chase Taylor of Pine Cone Macro is back to break down the mess that is U.S. trade policy and what it means for markets. We talk about whether Trump’s tariffs are pushing us toward recession, why China’s fiscal discipline might actually be a strength, and where smart investors should be looking outside the U.S. Chase walks through opportunities in Greece, Brazil, and Chile, and we take a step back to talk about how capital flows and political risk are reshaping global investing. Plus, we nerd out about frontier markets—and yes, a little bit about NBA playoffs too.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:32) - NBA Playoffs and Initial Discussion

(01:18) - Tariff Vice and Economic Concerns

(02:07) - Impact of Tariffs on US Economy

(07:34) - Recession Fears and Employment Data

(09:58) - Trump's Trade Policies and Market Reactions

(17:38) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

(28:29) - Investment Opportunities in Europe

(30:00) - Investment Opportunities in Europe and Brazil

(30:51) - Challenges and Risks in Brazil and Turkey

(32:19) - Overseas Investing: Macro Tailwinds and Policy

(33:32) - Turnaround Stories in Emerging Markets

(34:44) - The Potential of Frontier Markets

(38:08) - Geopolitical Insights and North Korea

(45:34) - Agricultural Commodities and Market Trends

(49:43) - The Dollar's Impact on Trade and Investments

(52:03) - NBA Trades and the Cleveland Cavaliers

(55:46) - Podcast Conclusion and Contact Information

Referenced:

Pine Cone Macro: https://www.pineconemacro.com/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The Economy Has COVID

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

In this wide-ranging episode, Jacob and Rob check in on markets, discuss the issue of Federal Reserve independence, and somehow end up talking about the future of the Catholic Church. We are large – we contain multitudes!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introooo

(02:55) - Market Trends and Economic Indicators

(04:15) - Freight Data and Economic Concerns

(07:42) - Historical Context: Market Reactions

(16:44) - The Fed's Role and Independence

(26:40) - Trump's Economic Approval Ratings

(27:29) - Debating Economic vs Cultural Factors

(29:45) - Hypothetical Scenarios for Jerome Powell

(34:01) - Global Political Shifts and Far-Right Movements

(37:38) - The Future of the Catholic Church

(45:48) - Resurgence of Religion Among Young People

(50:04) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Separating Signal From Noise (with Rob!)

Fri, 11 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

American Airlines can’t keep Jacob down – he makes time to connect with Rob Larity to do an episode on the market chaos of the week.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Travel Woes

(01:09) - Ranting About American Airlines

(02:21) - Catching Up with Rob

(03:06) - Market Volatility and Tariffs

(04:34) - Financial Crisis vs. Current Situation

(07:42) - Uncertainty in the Market

(08:48) - Impact of Tariffs and Trade War

(13:11) - Bond Yields and Inflation Expectations

(20:20) - Dollar Weakness and Global Capital

(22:46) - Historical Context and Globalization

(26:24) - Trump's Desire for a Deal with China

(27:29) - US-China Economic Interdependence

(31:03) - Challenges in International Investment

(33:42) - Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

(37:16) - Corporate Responses to Tariffs

(42:54) - Impact on Small and Medium Businesses

(47:23) - Geopolitical and Economic Outlook

(52:19) - Closing Remarks and Future Plans

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Let Them Drink Bleach

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Notice: This is the last episode that we'll be cross-posting on the JShap Show Channel!

For details on this episode and further off the wall updates, follow Geopolitical Cousins wherever you get your podcasts!!

Helpful Link - https://feeds.captivate.fm/geopolitical-cousins/

Blessing by Blowtorch

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Vance hosted Jacob on his podcast – so only fair that Jacob should return the favor! Vance and Jacob talk about early returns on Trump administration policies for U.S. and Canadian farmers. They discuss the virtues and pitfalls of Bitcoin, and close with some heartfelt thoughts on insights Vance has derived from interviewing hundreds of people about the most meaningful aspects of their life.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:01) – Response to U.S. politics

(11:45) – Biofuels

(14:32) – Debt/land prices

(18:04) – RFK Jr, eggs, making waves

(30:42) – Will USDA have power over processing?

(32:30) – Bitcoin

(47:50) – Making the meaning they lack

Referenced in the Show:

Link to first Jacob/Vance episode: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/geopolitical-shifts-from-nato-to-canada-the-world-is/id1463771076?i=1000693451758

Vance’s website: https://www.vancecrowe.com/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Riding on the Hog of a Fiscal Orgy

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko convene an emergency episode to discuss Liberation Day. Afterwards, they speak to fellow cousin Matt Gertken about President Trump’s comments that he might serve a third presidential term.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Episode Overview

(01:46) - Discussion on Tariffs and Trade Deficit

(02:58) - Reciprocal Tariffs and Economic Reactions

(04:56) - Market Reactions and Negotiation Strategies

(07:02) - Uncertainty and Global Trade Dynamics

(07:45) - Historical Context and Strategic Analysis

(10:15) - Geopolitical Implications and Future Scenarios

(13:15) - US Fiscal Policy and Global Trade War

(30:57) - Potential Outcomes and Congressional Actions

(35:20) - Biden's Missed Opportunity with Trade

(36:04) - Challenges in US Trade Negotiations

(37:44) - Inflation and Tariffs Debate

(40:19) - Recession Concerns and Economic Adjustments

(41:11) - Tariffs and Their Impact on American Manufacturing

(43:09) - China's Military Exercises and Taiwan

(44:30) - Debating China's Intentions with Taiwan

(52:03) - Part 2 with Matt Gertken

(54:48) - Trump's Third Term Speculation

(01:06:44) - Reflecting on Beginnings and Career Paths

(01:07:52) - The Impact of Leadership on Markets

(01:10:52) - Comparing Political Systems: US, China, and Russia

(01:13:11) - The Future of American Democracy

(01:17:19) - Media Manipulation and Political Spectacle

(01:20:50) - The Role of the Supreme Court

(01:32:57) - European Politics and the Far Right

(01:42:31) - Concluding Thoughts on Geopolitics

Referenced in the Show:

Note from Matt on reference he made in podcast: Cato of Utica is associated with Geo Washington. He committed suicide when Caesar came to power - But it was Cato the ELDER who would retreat to his Sabine farm after various stints in power. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/cato

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

🇺🇸 Liberation Day 🇺🇸

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 03:45:00 -0500

We are fighting for our right to live. To exist. To buy products for higher prices than we could have bought them. And should we win the day, the Second of April will no longer be known as an American holiday, but as the day the United States declared in one voice: "We will not go quietly into the night!" We will not vanish without a fight! We're going to live on! We're going to survive! We are going to conquer Greenland! Today, we celebrate our Liberation Day!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:54) - Trade Policies and Tariffs

(05:56) - Impact of Tariffs on Businesses

(16:01) - Congressional Role in Tariff Decisions

(21:53) - Sanctions vs. Tariffs

(28:07) - Shifting Financial Sanctions and Tariffs

(29:32) - US-Venezuela Relations: Regime Change and Mixed Signals

(31:22) - Trump's Foreign Policy Goals with Russia

(32:30) - Impact of Sanctions on US Domestic Politics

(37:59) - USMCA Renegotiation and Tariff Strategies

(42:44) - Nearshoring Challenges and Critical Minerals

(47:33) - Currency Adjustments and Global Trade Dynamics

(52:04) - UK's Trade and Foreign Policy Post-Brexit

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Rachel’s Substack: https://rziemba.substack.com/

Link to Peterson report mentioned in podcast: https://www.piie.com/commentary/testimonies/evidence-costs-and-benefits-economic-sanctions

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

At the Frontline of the South China Sea and Democracy

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Georgi Engelbrecht on to the podcast for the first time to discuss the importance of the Philippines, why it matters, its relationship with China, and the Duterte-Marcos rivalry that is reverberating throughout the democratic world.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Guest Introduction

(02:22) - Life and Work in the Philippines

(04:27) - Geopolitical Importance of the Philippines

(05:49) - Historical and Cultural Context of the Philippines

(08:56) - Philippines-China Relations and South China Sea Disputes

(20:10) - Duterte's Foreign Policy and Its Impact

(28:12) - Navigating US-Philippines Relations

(28:54) - Economic Ties and Trade Dynamics

(29:57) - Strategic Alliances and Regional Security

(34:09) - Domestic Challenges and Economic Growth

(36:58) - Political Drama and Duterte's ICC Trial

(43:26) - Public Perception and Future Implications

(52:23) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Beware the Profit Recession and India’s Stock Bubble

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob squeeze in a quick episode to reality-check some of the media narratives out there about an imminent recession, copper prices, and the U.S. dollar. From there, they cast their eyes toward emerging markets, looking at events in Brazil, Indonesia, India, and Turkey, and concluding that things still look good in a multipolar world…as long as you have an appropriate level of risk tolerance. They close with specific thoughts on the Indian market.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) – Profit recession

(13:10) – Copper

(16:32) – The direction of the USD

(20:34) – Multipolar investing

(28:11) – India and Shorting

(37:47) – Parisian vibe check

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Geopolitical Cousins - Get Off Our Lawn

Fri, 28 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Want more details?

GO CHECK OUT THE GEOPOLITICAL COUSINS POD HERE: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

You can also such look up "Geopolitical Cousins" on your favorite podcast provider.

Will Trump Go to War with Iran?

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko run down the most important issues of the week: Will the U.S. go to war with Iran? Why did President Erdogan arrest his top rival? Is Indonesia helping or hurting itself by courting its military? And is Chinese consumption really happening? From there, they turn to the kind of geopolitical sports analysis that only they can offer, drafting teams of 7 for the top geopolitical sports moments in history.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(31:00) - Turkey

(46:00) – Indonesia

(58:00) – China

(1:09:00) - Geopolitical Draft

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Messing Around and Finding Out

Fri, 14 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

You can also just look up "Geopolitical Cousins" and it'll come up. We're the only ones. This is it. Welcome to the goat rodeo! The inaugural episode of the Geopolitical Cousins podcast sees Marko and Jacob wax philosophical about net assessments, debate where the Trump administration thinks the world is multipolar, and interrogate what the future of Canada, Europe, and inflation look like in a land of all sticks and no carrots.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Approach and Precepts

(11:40) – Net Assessments

(19:24) – Multipolarity

(35:09) – US Exceptionalism, China, and US Fiscal Policy

(43:24) - Canada-US Trade Tensions

(48:22) – Inflation and pain thresholds

(53:07) – Europe's Awakening and Defense Strategies

Referenced in the Show:

NEW FEED: https://geopolitical-cousins.captivate.fm/listen

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Pulling the Wrong Levers

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Trump’s tariff policy is all over the place - Ton, off, then back on again. Markets don’t like uncertainty, and Jacob' sister is even texting him about stocks. China? Barely flinching. Europe? Actually getting its act together, with Germany and Poland leading the charge. Meanwhile, Turkey’s making moves, the Kurds are recalibrating, and Iran’s back in the mix.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:40) - Sister Index

(05:40) - Impact of US Tariffs and Trade Policies

(08:46) - Trump Administration's Policy Analysis

(14:38) - Lumber Test Case

(24:52) - China's Response to US Tariffs

(34:18) - Germany's Defense and Fiscal Policies

(35:08) - Poland's Military and Political Moves

(36:39) - France's Political Climate

(38:02) - Europe's Industrial and Manufacturing Strength

(40:48) - EU's Strategic Moves and Turkey Relations

(46:42) - Italy's Political Dynamics and Starlink Controversy

(48:41) - Poland's Geopolitical Strategy

(53:50) - Turkey's Position and Regional Developments

(01:05:34 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

FP article link: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/03/07/europe-heavy-industry-trump-us-competition/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

The Thing about Tariffs

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Cornell Assistant Professor Wendong Zhang discuss tariffs from an objective perspective: Who will they impact? How much? How does that change based on different scenarios? If you are looking to be convinced of whether tariffs are good policy or not, seek another podcast; if what you desire is objective analysis about the potential impact of tariffs both good and bad, you have come to the right place.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:33) - Tariffs and Trade Wars

(07:54) - Impact of Tariffs on Various Economies

(18:33) - Retaliation and Sector-Specific Impacts

(27:48) - Global Trade War Scenarios

(36:52) - Future of Trade Policies

(44:10) - Conclusion

Referenced in the Show:

Wendong's Paper - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5113925

Wendong's Site - https://wendongzhang.weebly.com/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Did the US Just Abandon Ukraine?

Sun, 02 Mar 2025 03:45:00 -0500

In this emergency episode of the Jacob Shapiro podcast, Jacob and Marko dissect the unexpected and intense Oval Office meeting between President Trump, Ukraine's President Zelensky, and JD Vance. We delve into the rare earth mineral deal, the broader implications for U.S. foreign policy, and Europe's reaction. The conversation touches on Zelensky's passionate defense of Ukraine's position, the viability of continued U.S. support, and the shifting dynamics in global geopolitics.

Watch the full clip of the meeting below->

Full link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kEOv4x_FIsc

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:42) - Setting the Scene and Marko's Take

(08:19) - Historical Context and Jacob's Take

(17:04) - Will Russia Turn?

(26:38) - Europe's Future in the Balance

(29:22) - Does it Matter if Trump Abandons Europe?

(34:48) - NATO's Purpose and American Interests

(37:06) - Germany's Military History and Current Perception

(41:45) - The Multipolar World and American Primacy (Trump and Obama)

(50:45) - Zelensky's Leadership and Ukraine's Future

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Mr. Market Is Not Happy

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Though operating at less than 100 percent capacity, Jacob and Rob gather to take stock of how markets are reacting to the changes of the last 6 weeks. They find themselves more optimistic about China, Germany, and Europe than others, and warn about signals that suggest President Trump’s honeymoon economy period is nearing its end.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:15) – Checking in on Mr. Market

(12:11) – International Market Over-performance

(13:11) – Germany and the Future

(22:03) - ...What about the European Union?

(23:03) - The EU and India

(26:21) - China and the Taiwan Question

35:14-end – China, Taiwan etc.

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Trade Wars are Metal Wars

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Tomas back onto the podcast in the wake of China’s announcement that licences will now be required to export 20 tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, indium and molybdenum-related products to "safeguard national security interests.” Tomas and Jacob talk about how to align government priorities to secure access to materials and the complexities around building capacity in a deglobalizing world where demand for materials has literally never been more intense.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(05:25) – Government priorities

(11:12) – China and critical minerals

(21:32) – Economics of mineral refining

(31:27)– Social license to operate

(38:19) – Feasibility of climate friendly goals

(43:34) – Aluminum and REE case studies

(52:35) – Food for thought

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Perceived Concessions

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is off this week! Instead, Jacob is rejoined by former colleague and current chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research Matt Gertken. They recap the week in geopolitics – specifically, the seachange in U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, the potential role of Turkey, and the future of the Black Sea. They close with thoughts on China and the Middle East.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Gravity of the moment

(12:30) – Will Russia invade the Baltics?

(19:10) – Turkey & the Black Sea

(33:00) – Germany

(40:25) – China

(50:38) – Iran and the Middle East

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

Stop Waiting To Live a Good Life

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob welcome Narath Carlile from MakeTimeFlow to the podcast to talk about human flouring, deep success, and time management. Rob and I could have talked to Narath for even longer than 90 minutes, but in this first episode with Narath, we talk about his background and why he developed the tools he has created to help people invest and protect their time. Narath explains some of the science and context around informatics, human flourishing, and deep success. Rob and Jacob share some of their successes and failures in working with Narath. The group closes by talking about how to protect time in a world that seems determined to steal it from us.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(03:04) - Narath

(15:36) – Geography of wellness

(28:18) – Informatics and human flourishing

(48:28) – Making goals

(01:00:04) – Rob and Jacob share experiences

(01:18:43) – How to stay positive

Referenced in the Show:

Link to MakeTimeFlow: https://www.maketimeflow.com/about/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

USAID's Demise: What It Means for Global Power and U.S. Influence

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

A candid discussion with Emma Pennisi on the centers on the ignominious assault on the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the negative consequences that will follow. Emma Pennisi is a seasoned veteran in the USAID domain is here in a strictly personal capacity.

Pennisi articulates her perspectives regarding the potential ramifications of this dismantling on U.S. global influence and strategic interests.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:32) - The Origins and Controversies of USAID

(05:39) - The Founding Principles of USAID

(11:20) - Altruism by Un-Design

(24:08) - The Future of Foreign Aid: The End of USAID

(28:46) - The Impact of USAID on Global Health and Migration

(37:46) - Analysis of Foreign Aid's Long-Term Impact

(45:03) - The Impact of USAID Dismantlement

(49:23) - The Impact of Direct Aid: A Personal Story

Referenced in the Show:

Lewis Lucke episode link: https://getpodcast.com/dk/podcast/covid19-a-fresh-look/44-ambassador-lewis-lucke_b67e81e8a5

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#256 - And Now, The Weather

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Daryl Ritchison joins the pod to discuss the intricate interplay of weather phenomena affecting global climates, with a particular emphasis on the anomalous snowfall witnessed in the Gulf region, a rare event that has sparked significant interest. Jacob and Daryl explore the implications of a weak La Niña on weather patterns, the negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and finish on weather conditions in Europe and India.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Snow in the gulf

(5:30) – Weak La Nina

(11:20) – US Forecast 2025

(18:40) - Negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation, South America

(26:00) – Europe

(31:05) – India

(33:50) – Drought

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#255 - Strategic Ketchup Reserve

Fri, 07 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Timestamps:

(00:07) - Intro

(00:30) - Monetize the asset side of the balance sheet

(17:18) - Bitcoin

(25:00) - Debt

(32:17) - Macro looks at England, India, Brazil, China

(41:40) - Indonesia's Future: Opportunities and Risks

(53:42) - Gaza and Analyzing Trump's Negotiation Strategy

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#254 - Geopolitical Cousins

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko had planned to pod today anyway…but then Luka got traded, Trump threatened tariffs, and the whole world went generally mad, so they had to go for over an hour and a half! Special announcement for those who make it to the end.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - The Evening Special

(03:33) - Unexpected Developments

(18:14) - The Implications of Tariffs and Negotiations

(28:14) - Geopolitical Implications of Tariffs

(36:23) - The Multipolar World and America's Strategic Position

(49:39) - The Shifting Dynamics of Global Power

(01:00:40) - Geopolitical Perspectives on the Ukraine Conflict

(01:07:08) - The Future of Ukraine and Russia's Strategy

(01:18:41) - The Future of Luka Doncic: Challenges and Opportunities

(01:28:06) - Introducing Geopolitical Cousins: A New Podcast

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#253 - Lose the War, Win the Peace

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes the always insightful and provocative Jacek Bartosiak of Strategy&Future onto the show to discuss the Russia-Ukraine war and the evolution of the multipolar geopolitical system. Jacek makes his case that a systemic, global war has already begun – and warns the U.S. what will happen if it indulges in hubris and pushes too hard on President Trump’s “America First” rhetoric.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:01) - Ukraine Updates - Will Russia negotiate?

(11:09) - Will Russia negotiate?

(19:00) - The Geopolitical Landscape: Turkey and Germany's Role

(28:06) - The U.S. and China's influence in Eurasia

(33:36) - The future of Transatlantic relations

(39:35) - The future of Europe's role in global politics

(44:51) - Peace > War

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#252 - Mexican Leverage

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob break down the tech market shake-up caused by Deep Seek, a rising Chinese AI company, and what it means for U.S.-China relations and global AI competition. They dive into Nvidia’s stock drop, how AI rivalry is driving investor sentiment, and the shift toward cheaper, decentralized tech. The conversation also explores the economic ties between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and how these relationships will shape trade policies. Throughout, they stress the need for a clear-eyed view of market trends and stability in U.S.-Mexico relations amid growing tensions with China.

Timestamps:

(00:02) - Intro

(01:06) - Market Reactions and AI Developments

(10:24) - Decentralization and Global Dynamics Within AI

(34:30) - Shifting Geopolitical Dynamics and Economic Policies

(37:15) - Mexico's Economic Position and Geopolitical Leverage

(54:14) - U.S. Foreign Policy and Global Primacy

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#251: Don't Forget The DRC

Sat, 25 Jan 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob discusses several key geopolitical developments, focusing on President Trump's recent inauguration and the implications of his trade policies. Notably, Trump did not immediately raise tariffs on China as anticipated, signaling a potential shift towards negotiation rather than confrontation in international trade. Shapiro also highlights the significance of Secretary of State Marco Rubio's first diplomatic visit to Panama, suggesting it could mark a renewed focus on Latin America. Additionally, he reflects on Ursula von der Leyen's remarks at Davos regarding the complexities of global trade and the need for Europe to establish a more cohesive capital market. Throughout the discussion, Shapiro emphasizes the importance of adaptability and resilience in navigating today's unpredictable geopolitical landscape.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:03) - Navigating a New Administration's Trade Policies

(10:17) - The Future of European Integration

(13:44) - Current Events in the Democratic Republic of Congo

(19:21) - Resilience in a Changing World

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#250 - Hungarian Baby Incentives

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob Larity dive into another weekly update, focusing on the intertwined economies of the United States, Canada, and Mexico. They discuss how the U.S. administration's approach to tariffs and trade could significantly impact these neighboring countries, particularly highlighting Mexico's unique position to leverage its relationship with the U.S. amidst rising tensions. They explore the implications of economic policies, such as the recent jobs report and inflation data, while also dissecting the emotional drivers behind public sentiment on inflation forecasts. The conversation touches upon historical parallels in presidential second terms, underscoring the challenges that may lie ahead for Trump as he navigates a politically divided landscape.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:46) - Naptime and the Economy

(22:35) - The Impact of Tariffs on Canada and Mexico

(29:29) - The Economic Landscape of Mexico and Canada

(45:35) - The Importance of Maritime Choke Points

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#249 - Trumpismo Rising

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Elohim Monard dive into the significant shifts in voting patterns among the Latino community in the recent U.S. presidential election, highlighting how Trump's appeal has grown, particularly among younger Latino voters. Jacob and Elo discuss the complexities behind these trends, noting that while Trump secured around 40% of the Latino vote, demographic breakdowns reveal nuanced support, especially among Latino men and younger generations. Elo emphasizes that the Latino population is diverse, and their political alignment is influenced by various factors, including migration stories, geographic locations, and generational differences. The conversation further explores how the political dynamics in the U.S. reflect broader trends in Latin America, suggesting that Trump's brand of populism, or "Trumpismo," may find resonance beyond U.S. borders. The episode concludes with reflections on how these evolving narratives will shape both Latino politics and U.S. relations with Latin America moving forward.

Timestamps:

(00:03) - Intro

(01:34) - Analyzing the Latino Vote in the 2024 Presidential Election

(22:03) - The Changing Dynamics of Latino Political Support

(28:01) - The Impact of Social Media on Political Awareness Among Young Latinos

(44:23) - The Evolving Identity of Hispanics in America

(58:33) - The Rise of Trumpismo and Its Implications

(01:03:41) - The Political Landscape: A Shift in Focus

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#248 - Yet Another New World Order 🙄

Fri, 10 Jan 2025 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro returns from paternity leave, jumping right into a discussion about the surprising implications of Trump's recent comments on military intervention and territorial ambitions. He compares his sixth-grade imagination of invading Qatar to Trump's statements about Greenland and the Gulf of Mexico, exploring the potential geopolitical ripple effects of such rhetoric. The conversation also delves into the economic landscape, particularly how anticipated tariffs under a Trump administration could impact U.S. relations with Canada and Mexico, as well as the broader implications for inflation and the labor market. Additionally, Jacob highlights a noteworthy thaw in Japan-China relations, suggesting that Japan may be recalibrating its foreign policy approach amidst changing global dynamics. Finally, the episode touches on Germany's evolving political climate and the potential for impactful reforms as the country navigates its economic challenges.

Timestamps:

Chapters:

(00:00) - Intro (we're so back)

(03:16) - The Shift in Foreign Policy Perspectives

(12:21) - Trump's Foreign Policy

(19:34) - Macro-Econ Checkup

(25:18) - The Impact of Immigration on Labor Markets and Inflation

(35:17) - Shifting Dynamics: US Energy Policy and International Relations

(40:54) - Japan's Evolving Foreign Policy

(46:47) - The Shifting Political Landscape in Germany

(53:11) - The Economic Shift in Germany

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Jacob Shapiro Show is produced and edited by Audiographies LLC. More information at audiographies.com

#247 - Syria

Mon, 16 Dec 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari to the podcast to discuss the shocking collapse of the Assad regime.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(05:30) - Who are the Syrian rebels

(17:10) – Turkey + Qatar

(27:20) – Kurds

(37:40) – Iran and the Houthis

(43:44) – Saudis, Jordan, Egypt

(50:55) - The death of Islamism

Kamran Bokhari - https://newlinesinstitute.org/people/kamran-bokhari/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Disclaimer: Cognitive Investments LLC (“Cognitive Investments”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where Cognitive Investments and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure.

The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor

#246 - Government Collapse Week

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob checks in from paternity leave to talk to Rob about the latest in markets. From there, they offer some hopefully insightful if slightly disjointed thoughts about France (no deal), Syria (little deal), and South Korea (big deal).

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:01) – CI Club

(05:30) – US and Global Markets

(26:33) - France and Europe

(35:30) – Middle East

(49:13) – South Korea

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#245 - Bully Capitalism

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob parse some of President-elect Trump’s first cabinet picks and what it might mean for economic policy. They compare previous approaches to economic policy and make some provocative comparisons. From there, they turn to China’s (underwhelming) “stimulus” announcement last week, and close with some thoughts on Japan’s recent election.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:54) - Global Ice Trade

(03:56) - Scott Besant's Economic Policies

(18:51) - Historical Comparisons and Economic Models

(33:21) - The Facade of Dollar Exchange

(34:11) - El Salvador's Bitcoin Bet

(35:53) - Trump's Cabinet Picks and Policy Clashes

(37:08) - China's Economic Strategies and Stimulus

(48:23) - Japan's Political Landscape

(58:20) - China's Global Investments

(59:39) - Concluding Thoughts on Global Dynamics

Referenced in the Show:

Link to application for Club CI: https://bit.ly/club-ci

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#244 - Japan is Waking

Mon, 11 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

While everyone has been worried about U.S. elections, Japan held elections too – with a result that has upended everything we’ve known about Japanese politics since 2009. To understand what has changed and what is at stake, Jacob is joined by Japan expert Tobias Harris – they chat about changes in Japan and why underestimating Japan is a bad idea. They also discuss Tobias’s recent biography on former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe and his legacy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:33) - Japan 101

(08:07) – Japanese disaffection

(16:26) – Japanese paralysis

(19:17) – Zoom out

(23:31) – China

(31:00) – ROK/Japan

(36:45) – Shinzo Abe

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Tobias’s book: https://www.amazon.com/Iconoclast-Shinzo-Abe-New-Japan/dp/1787383105

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#243 - Trump's Triumph: What the Election Means for America and the World

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob dive into Donald Trump's surprising victory and its potential impact on various sectors, including the economy and the markets. They discuss the prevailing mood in both the US and Europe, highlighting a sense of resignation to Trump's return among many citizens. They explore the market reactions following the election results, noting the volatility in risk assets and the contrasting performance of renewable energy stocks and traditional industries like steel. The conversation also touches on the evolving political landscape in Germany, where the government is facing significant challenges, potentially reshaping Europe's response to US policy under Trump. Throughout the discussion, there is a critical examination of the term "vibes" and its influence on public sentiment and market behavior, raising questions about how perceptions can drive decisions in uncertain times.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:16) – Rob reaction

(07:45) – Market reaction

(30:20) – U.S./China

(54:00) – Bitcoin

(56:15) – Germany and Europe

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Four More Years: Trump 2.0 and What Comes Next

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko tackle the results of the 2024 election as only they can – in a 2 hr+ episode, they discuss what happened in the election, what Trump’s agenda will mean for the economy and markets, how to understand the geopolitical impact…and what his victory might mean for the future of the United States.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro
01:17– Realignment or flash in the pan?
15:25 – Domestic agenda
40:40 – US-China Relations
1:03:40 – Mexico
1:13:20 – Ukraine/EU
1:27:51 – MENA/Iran
1:40:25 – Future of the USA

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

https://muse.jhu.edu/pub/1/article/937740/pdf

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#242 - Gold, Migration, and Cocaine

Sun, 03 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Description (replace me)

Timestamps:

00:01 - Intro
01:14 - Understanding Crime in Latin America
08:30 - Case Study: Guatemala and Its Challenges
19:48 - Emerging Trends in Drug Trafficking
22:54 - The Narco State Concept Explained
31:24 - The Situation in Mexico: Democracy at Risk
44:02 - El Salvador's Authoritarian Shift
45:52 - Peru's Political Instability and Future Outlook
56:03 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Referenced in the Show:

https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/can-mexicos-next-president-control-the-military/

https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/perus-anti-law-enforcement-turn-is-a-threat-to-regional-stability/

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#241 - U.S. Election 2024 Preview

Fri, 01 Nov 2024 03:45:00 -0500

The U.S. election next week. Even those of us that hate following this have no choice but to bite the bullet – so this week, Rob and Jacob make predictions, offer scenarios, and most importantly, try to impart some advice about how to think about what is going to happen in the next 4 years no matter who resides in the White House.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction
02:46 - Election Scenarios and Market Implications
04:43 - Economic Indicators and Predictions
10:06 - Cultural and Political Dynamics
15:40 - Market Reactions and Future Projections
26:52 - Market Reactions to Potential Trump Victory
28:56 - Impact of Fiscal Spending and Inflation
30:39 - Equity vs. Bond Markets
33:42 - Gold, Bitcoin, and Commodities
36:03 - Illegal Gold Mining in Latin America
37:31 - Potential Harris Victory and Economic Policies
41:55 - Historical Perspectives on Economic Policies
46:06 - Investment Strategies Amidst Volatility
50:44 - Long-term U.S. Economic Outlook
56:56 - Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#240 - The Illusion of Moral Decline

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Adam Mastroianni onto the show to discuss his 2023 article in Nature about how it is human nature to assume that the world is always getting worse. This is that rare bit of content that is entirely optimistic – it invites you to consider that our perception of the world is grounded not in what is actually happening in the world but in how we are programmed to think about it.

Timestamps:

00:01 - Introduction to Adam Mastriani
00:15 - The Illusion of Moral Decline
00:31 - Human Psychology and Moral Perception
04:38 - Survey Findings on Morality
02:03 - Understanding Cooperation and Negativity Bias
14:03 - Exploring Political Polarization
11:28 - The Role of Social Media in Perception
42:26 - Conclusion: Optimism in a Complex World

Referenced in the Show:

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#239 - Introducing Club CI

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a break from geopolitics and markets to talk about changes at Team CI – why they are moving their asset management activities to The Bespoke Group, how Cognitive Investments is changing… and how you can be a part of it... They unveil the launch of Club CI, a new community designed for like-minded individuals seeking to deepen their understanding of geopolitics, technology, and personal growth. This episode dives into the structural changes within Cognitive Investments, highlighting Jacob's new role as head of geopolitical research at the Bespoke Group and Rob's position as CIO. They discuss the importance of creating a supportive environment for sharing knowledge and fostering creativity among members, emphasizing the dual tiers of membership that cater to both established professionals and emerging talents. The conversation also touches on the integration of productivity tools and methods from experts like Nareth Carlisle, aimed at enhancing personal effectiveness and well-being. As they explore the vision behind Club CI, Jacob and Rob invite listeners to consider how they can engage with this evolving community.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Intro
00:56 - What is Club CI?
03:54 - Transitioning to Bespoke Group
09:14 - Building the CI Community
10:12 - Understanding Human Capital Trends
21:37 - The Vision for Club CI
22:09 - The Structure of Club CI
29:01 - Member vs. Fellow Tiers Explained
55:22 - Closing Thoughts and How to Join

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#238 - The Future of the Middle East: Reflections on a Year of Conflict

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob consider how the world has changed (or hasn’t) since the Hamas attack on Israel on Oct 7, 2023. From there, they offer thoughts on innovation in seemingly random countries like Iraq and Chile, before turning to more traditional topics like the U.S. economy. They close with a few bright spots…and a dumpster fire in Pakistan.

Timestamps:

00:01 - Intro
00:55 - Reflections on October 7, 2023
03:49 - The Impact of Global Events on Trade
09:00 - The Situation in Iraq and Food Self-Sufficiency
29:28 - Economic Growth and Innovation in Developing Countries
29:38 - Concerns about Ireland's Economic Future
51:30 - Analyzing Pakistan's Economic Challenges
01:00:35 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#237 - Fires, Strikes and Brazilian Success

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob take a step back from a crazy week to talk about some of the other stories that have been outshone by the explodey events of the week: port strikes in the U.S., the pitfalls of protectionism, Brazilian success, insurance markets, and more. The podcast delves into the significant labor unrest currently affecting ports on the Gulf and East Coast of the United States, marking the first major strike since 1977. Jacob Shapiro and Rob Larity explore the implications of this strike, particularly its potential impact on the supply chain during the crucial holiday shipping season and the broader economic consequences, including inflationary pressures. They draw parallels to past labor movements and discuss the evolving dynamics of labor and production in the U.S., highlighting the challenges posed by automation and protectionist policies. The conversation also touches on the geopolitical context, emphasizing how current events in the Middle East and elsewhere are intertwined with domestic labor issues. Furthermore, they reflect on the inadequacies of insurance coverage in light of recent flooding in North Carolina, illustrating the hidden vulnerabilities within both personal and corporate risk management.

Timestamps:

00:01 - Intro
00:47 - Port Strikes in the US and Historical Context
09:50 - Impact of Port Strikes on Supply Chains
39:57 - Insurance and Risk Management Insights
53:25 - Brazil's Economic Situation and Credit Ratings
54:55 - Conclusion and Final Thoughts

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#236 - Iran’s Strategic Loneliness

Wed, 02 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Hamidreza Azizi, Visiting Fellow at German Institute for International and Security Affairs, onto the podcast for a special episode on the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel. This podcast episode delves into the complex and precarious situation faced by Iran amidst escalating regional tensions and internal political strife. Hamidreza shares his insights on Iran's strategic options, which he characterizes as increasingly grim and desperate. The discussion highlights Iran's recent missile strikes on Israel as a sign of desperation rather than strength, aiming to control damage and assert some level of deterrence in a rapidly deteriorating situation. They also touch on the internal political dynamics in Iran, including the impact of leadership changes and public sentiment towards foreign policy. Azizi emphasizes the challenges Iran faces, including a lack of reliable allies and the potential for further escalation in its conflict with Israel and the United States.

Timestamps:

00:01 - Intro
00:28 - Iran's Strategic Position
07:04 - Iran's Asymmetric Deterrence Strategy
38:31 - Iran's Internal Politics and External Strategy
48:10 - Conclusion and Reflections on Iran's Future

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#235 - Trump v Harris Victory Scenarios w/ Cousin Marko

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Marko talk for a Joe-Rogan-amount of time – in this two-hour episode, they cover the Iranian threat to bomb Israel and what it does (and doesn’t) mean for the Middle East, whether China’s stimulus is real, and what’s next for the Russia-Ukraine war. They also explore Trump v Harris victory scenarios…and close out with the best NBA analysis money can buy.

Timestamps:

00:01 - Introductory Remarks
00:57 - Middle East Tensions: Iran and Israel
01:27 - Reassessing Israel's Strategic Goals
02:29 - The Impact of Iranian Retaliation
03:59 - Market Implications: Oil and Equities
34:04 - China's Economic Stimulus: A Policy Shift?
01:13:18 - Trump vs. Harris: Election Scenarios
01:17:32 - The Future of Russia-Ukraine Conflict
01:35:26 - NBA Preview and Predictions
01:47:45 - Closing Thoughts and Outro

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#234 - Alberto Fujimori, 1938-2024

Mon, 30 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Elo returns to the podcast to give his thoughts about Alberto Fujimori, Peru’s former dictator President. He was Bukele before there was Bukele, Milei before there was Milei, even Chavez before there was Chavez. His rise and fall tells us so much about the history of Latin American geopolitics – and points to a melancholic not-so-shining path forward.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) - Who was Fujimori

(09:37) – Japan and Peru

(14:12) – The Rise of Fujimori

(28:33) – Vladimiro Montesinos

(35:45) – Post-Fujimori

(40:06)- Fujimori Legacy

(49:45) – Thank you but you’re a f’ing dictator.

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#233 - Bladerunner 2024 and China Stimulus

Fri, 27 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob dive into the microgeopolitics of Los Angeles before focusing on the big macro news of the week: Chinese economic stimulus. They give the bull and bear case for China’s moves to stimulate the economy. Also, the geopolitics of noodles.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Microgeopolitics of LA

28:00 – Ports, France, and Brazil

30:00 – China

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#232 - Why Simplify When You Can Complicate?

Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes PauloMacro onto the podcast to discuss his macro view, oil, grains, emerging markets… and why the time might have finally come for Brazil.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:22) - Paulo’s view

(13:05) – US elections

(19:32) – Oil

(33:08)– China

(41:20) – Grains

(51:10) – Brazil

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Paulo’s Substack: https://substack.com/@paulomacro

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#231 - Paging Hezbollah

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed’s decision to cut interest rates, the BIOSECURE Act, Israel’s new front against Hezbollah, and Mexico’s judicial reforms. The overall theme of the podcast, despite a general overtone of paranoid dystopianism from the week’s events, is the slow and steady breaking of rules and norms in so many aspects of global politics and trade.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:05-10:00) – Fed

(09:10) – BIOSECURE Act

(22:23) – Hezbollah and Israel

(42:51) – Mexico’s judicial reforms

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#230 - Microgeopolitics of Fargo and Brazil v. X

Sat, 07 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are back from vacation! They share some microgeopolitical takes from their respective journeys and talk about the faceoff between Elon Musk and Brazil.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:40) – Fargo

(19:50) – Briancon

(30:00) – Brazil vs X

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-world-desperately-needs-a-new-pandemic-treaty/

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#229 - Understanding WHO's Mpox Declaration

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Alexandra Finch on the podcast to talk about the mpox outbreak in the context of the international legal frameworks that apply including WHO’s emergency declaration, how they are being applied, and how they are/should be reformed.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Mpox emergency declaration

(06:30) - Needs v. realities

(12:56) - How does the WHO actually work? Who pays for the vaccines?

(22:30) – International Health Regulations and Global Pandemic Treaty

(33:55) – Pitfalls of international law

(41:30) – How to build trust in institutions

Referenced in the Show:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2410395.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/opinion/mpox-vaccines-africa-pandemic.html

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#228 - The Arabian Gulf's Expanding Conflict + Modi's Visit to Ukraine

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro dive into the current geopolitical landscape, beginning with a lively discussion about the Democratic National Convention and Kamala Harris's rising poll numbers. They touch on the ongoing conflict in the Arabian Gulf, examining the Red Sea Tanker attack and its implications for global shipping. They also speculate on the growing tensions between Israel and Hamas amidst rumors of a call between Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu. Narendra Modi's significant visit to Ukraine highlights changing geopolitical dynamics, while Elon Musk's controversy with Brazil over censorship broadens the conversation to global tech regulation. The episode concludes with an over/under segment, providing predictions on pressing issues like the Gaza ceasefire and Canada's railroad strike.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:34) - Kamala Harris' Poll Numbers and Media Coverage

(04:05) - On-the-Ground Insights from Chicago

(08:56) - Red Sea Tanker Attack and Global Shipping Disruptions

(14:37) - Gaza Ceasefire Negotiations and Trump-Netanyahu Call

(20:00) - India's Diplomatic Moves and Arms Import Strategy

(25:18) - Elon Musk's Twitter Tantrum in Brazil

(30:22) - Over/Under Predictions and Wrap-Up

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#227 - The Tactical Objectives of Ukraine's Offensive Push

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is on vacation, so Jacob welcomes Sim Tack to join him in his weekly Friday slot to discuss Ukraine’s invasion of Russia. The two address the logistical challenges facing Ukraine, such as air support and ammunition shortages, and analyzes the strategic and tactical objectives of the Ukrainian offensive. They explore various potential motivations behind the invasion, including creating negotiation leverage and affecting Russian forces' deployment. The conversation also delves into broader geopolitical implications, including Ukraine's coordination of Western-supplied weaponry and the potential long-term impacts on Russia and Ukraine's capabilities.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) Welcoming SimTac and Initial Thoughts on Ukraine

(02:06) - Ukraine's Recent Military Actions

(07:15) - Russian Air Power and Tactical Challenges

(14:54) - Ukraine's Strategic Objectives

(25:02) - Future of the Conflict and Military Leadership

(32:58) - European Sentiment and Infrastructure Threats

43:49) - Conclusion and Contact Information

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#226 - Monkeypox and AI

Fri, 16 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob talk about the expanding monkeypox global health emergency. From there they turn to artificial intelligence to talk about whether comparisons to previous bubbles in rail and telecoms are good models for thinking about it going forward.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:39) – Nordstream sabotage

(04:16) – Monkeypox

(11:00) – Government responses

(20:20) – Investment implications

(26:43) – Artificial Intelligence

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#225 - Great Power Network Competition and Bitcoin (and Aliens)

Mon, 12 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Matthew Pines rejoins the podcast to talk about the virtue of Bitcoin as a part of U.S. national security policy. Come for the philosophical discussion on Bitcoin and the role of the U.S. dollar – stay for Matt’s updates on aliens at the end.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Bitcoin

(12:55) – Philosophical considerations

(27:05) – Rails / assets

(40:37) – China’s ability to exploit vulnerabilities

(50:30) – Aliens

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#224 - Sober Liquidity

Fri, 09 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob dissects the market volatility of the week with characteristic apolmb. From there, Rob and Jacob tackle the overthrow of Bangladesh’s government and a discovery in Japan that may change the way the semiconductor industry works. Also, Rob’s take on the Olympics.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:41) - Market Madness: A Week of Financial Turbulence

(02:46) - Understanding Market Volatility

(08:37) - Investment Strategies in Volatile Markets

(19:18) - Bangladesh Political Crisis

(28:26) - Bangladesh's Garment Industry Resilience

(29:15) - Global Apparel Export Dynamics

(30:48) - Challenges in Textile-Dependent Economies

(33:52) - Bangladesh's Economic and Political Landscape

(36:05) - Innovations in Semiconductor Manufacturing

(37:53) - Investment Implications in Technology

(42:21) - The Future of Semiconductor Giants

(47:37) - Intel's Struggles and Market Sentiment

(50:16) - Paris Olympics Highlights

(54:22) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#223 - Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (An Update)

Fri, 02 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob talk briefly about emerging markets and a return to orthodox economic policies in places like Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Egypt. After a brief digression into the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise interest rates, they spend the rest of the podcast discussing a study that looked at the impact of direct cash transfers on labor supply and quality – and what it means that the key takeaway was that people want to have fun.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:47) - CI Club Concept

(05:45) - Global Geopolitical Updates

(07:38) - Focus on Nigeria and Ethiopia

(13:51) - Economic Strategies and Challenges

(17:49) - Japan's Economic Policies

(20:50) - Unconditional Cash Transfers Study

(29:05) - Challenges in U.S. Immigration and Workforce

(29:34) - Anecdotes on Job Market Shifts

(31:23) - Decline in Male Labor Force Participation

(34:57) - Universal Basic Income Study Findings

(40:34) - Philosophical Implications of Leisure

(44:29) - Automation and Future of Work

(46:47) - Starbucks Earnings and Service Quality

(48:06) - Historical Context and Policy Reflections

(55:59) - Concluding Thoughts and Reflections

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#222 - Maduro and Venezuela

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Elohim Monard back to the podcast for an emergency conversation about the deteriorating situation in Venezuela. While they both bring idealism to the conversation, it is hard to conclude that the current situation will lead to change – and that instead it will empower rogue elements, criminal enterprises, and authoritarian regimes around the world.

Timestamps:

Coming Soon (Jacob the Producer is sick rn)

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#221 - There IS A World Outside The U.S. Election (I Promise)

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob spend a few minutes discussing Kamala Harris before moving on to all the things happening in the world you’re missing because Trump and Harris are sucking up the headlines. They discuss Mexico trade relations, signals of change in Cuba and Venezuela, and major developments in Egypt and Vietnam, before closing with some bullishness on Japan.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:50) - Kamala

(05:55) – Mexico/Brazil/China

(17:15) – Cuba and Venezuela

(33:00) – Egypt

(43:51) – Vietnam

(47:50) – Japan

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#220 - The Trump Assassination Attempt

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob discuss the attempted assassination on former U.S. President Donald Trump. They explore scenarios related to tariffs and currency devaluation if Trump wins, as appears increasingly likely. They close with thoughts about CHina and why they are optimistic about the future.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) – Assassination in U.S. history

(19:00) – Tariffs

(34:00) – Devaluing the dollar

(50:50) – China

(59:05) – Optimism, scenarios, and why the Fourth Turning is bullshit

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#219 - How The Crusades Created Trusts as We Know Them

Mon, 15 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Matt rejoins the podcast to talk about a first step toward estate planning: trusts. That may sound wonky or boring, but stay with us – not only do we make it geopolitical, we make it philosophical, interesting, and relevant. Come for the intersection of politics and planning, but stay for the important points about privacy at the end as well.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:28) - Overview of Trusts and Geopolitical Context

(02:59) - Historical Origins of Trusts

(10:09) - Modern Trust Structures and Legal Nuances

(15:33) - Revocable vs. Irrevocable Trusts

(19:08) - Categories and Types of Trusts

(29:12) - Understanding Revocable Trusts

(29:34) - The Role of Trustees and Asset Protection

(29:53) - Privatizing Decision Making with Trusts

(30:41) - Irrevocable Trusts and Third-Party Trustees

(32:31) - Who Needs a Revocable Living Trust?

(33:38) - The Probate Process and Intestate Succession

(35:32) - The Importance of Structured Estate Planning

(38:16) - Advanced Estate Planning Strategies

(41:13) - Demographics and Estate Planning

(52:00) - The Impact of the Corporate Transparency Act

(54:38) - The Importance of Privacy in Estate Planning

(59:10) - Concluding Thoughts and Final Advice

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Shapiro Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#218 - Revolt of the Masses

Sat, 13 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob reconvene to talk about the latest CPI print, inflation expectations, and the U.S. elections. They also get philosophical about populism and apply their insights to different countries: the U.S., France, the UK, Argentina, and Germany.

Timestamps:

(00:00) -Intro

(00:39) - Weekly Chat with Rob: Catching Up

(01:17) - Inflation Discussion: Latest CPI Print

(03:36) - US Economic Slowdown: Service Sector and Manufacturing

(06:22) - Anecdotal Evidence: Tree Trimming and Airline Demand

(14:02) - Misallocation of Resources and Policy Volatility

(16:27) - US Election Impact on Economic Policies

(23:12) - Trade Tensions Under Biden vs. Trump

(24:08) - Populism and Global Political Trends

(25:44) - The Revolt of the Masses: Historical Context

(26:48) - Authority Structures and Information Democratization

(27:51) - French Elections: A Case Study

(29:58) - The Importance of Reading Books

(31:49) - Populism and Its Manifestations

(33:59) - Country-Specific Political Dynamics

(39:32) - Investment Strategies in Uncertain Times

(42:47) - Final Thoughts and Recommendations

(47:06) - Disclaimer and Legal Information

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#217 - Macron’s Gambit Worked…Sort Of – French Election Reaction

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Shane McLorrain rejoins the podcast to take a victory lap on his predictions from a few weeks ago. He and Jacob talk about the election results, discuss what is next for France and Europe, and close with some spicy thoughts on lap swimming etiquette in ville lumière.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Welcome

(00:59) - French Elections Recap

(02:10) - Election Results Analysis

(03:46) - The Republican Wall and Far-Right Dynamics

(09:08) - Future of French Politics

(15:56) - Macron's Presidency and Reforms

(23:34) - European Parliament and Far-Right Alliances

(28:12) - Rassemblement Nationale Under Investigation

(29:07) - European Far-Right Movements

(29:55) - Contrarian View on Democracy

(31:29) - Maloney's Unique Position

(32:27) - French Enthusiasm Against Fascism

(38:03) France's Relationship with the EU

(46:28) - Irish Politics and Public Sentiment

(49:40) - Swimming Culture in France

(51:07) - Conclusion and Disclaimers

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#216 - Double Your Pleasure, Double Your Shap

Mon, 08 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Welcome to the first episode of the newly rebranded "Jacob Shapiro Podcast!" Jacob L. Shapiro brings in the illustrious Jacob N. Shapiro from Princeton University to chat about disinformation, overhyped fears of AI, the impacts of social media on mental health, and the political and economic implications of China's Belt and Road Initiative. They also delve into worries surrounding the U.S. election's election staff safety, and the future of media trust. We hope you enjoy :)

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction and Podcast Rebranding

(02:30) - The Jacob Shapiro Confusion

(05:00) - Interview with Jacob N. Shapiro

(07:15) - Concerns About Disinformation

(09:45) - The Role of Technology in Disinformation

(12:20) - Historical Revisionism and AI

(15:35) - TikTok and Social Media Influence

(20:10) - Mental Health and Social Media

(25:00) - The Future of Trusted News Sources

(30:00) - The Impact of Gen AI on Journalism

(35:00) - Shift to National News and Its Effects

(40:10) - Economic Models for News Industry

(45:00) - Challenges in Monetizing Quality Content

(50:30) - Political Polarization and Media

(55:45) - Election Concerns in the U.S.

(01:00:00) - Foreign Interference and Election Security

(01:05:50) - Interstate vs. Intrastate Conflicts

(01:10:30) - China's Influence and Global Competition

(01:15:00) - El Salvador's Bukele and Regional Politics

(01:20:00) - Commencement Address Principles

(01:25:00) - Closing Remarks and Disclaimers

Referenced in the Show:

Where Americans get their News: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/15/more-americans-are-getting-news-on-tiktok-bucking-the-trend-seen-on-most-other-social-media-sites/

Independent Affiliation: https://news.gallup.com/poll/548459/independent-party-tied-high-democratic-new-low.aspx

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#215 - The Ozempic Boom and the Future of Biotech

Fri, 05 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob take a step back from the nitty-gritty of geopolitics and markets to talk about the boom in biotech stocks related to GLP-1s. They explore whether people are getting more health conscious or not, and what that might mean for the future of the biotech industry.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:45) - GLP-1s and Ozempic

(10:50) - Health consciousness

(28:45) - Individualized healthcare

(37:25)-end - The future of biotech

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#214 - Pardon the Interruption: A New Geopolitical Show with International Intrigue

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and John Fowler, former diplomat and lawyer and now partner at International Intrigue, are creating a new show on geopolitics modeled after the popular sports analysis show Pardon the Interruption on ESPN. Their goal? To bring you honest, objective, rigorous geopolitical analysis on the week’s most critical topics with irony, humor, and humility…and all in 30 minutes or less. Impossible you say? Perhaps! But we are trying anyway. Enjoy the show, share your feedback with us, and check out our friends at International Intrigue, they are doing great work. See you on the Dark Side of the Moon.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:45) – Assange

(06:45) – Bolivia’s failed coup

(10:30) – Chinese lunar probe

(14:45) – Kenya’s protests

(19:00) – The Biden-Trump debate

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#213 - Crime in Latin America and the Virtue of Pessimism

Mon, 01 Jul 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Elohim Monard back on the podcast for a serious and important discussion on crime in Latin America. They discuss the reasons behind the increase of crime in the region, how it ties into migration, why strongmen like Bukele are so fascinating to geopolitical nerds everywhere…and why pessimism might be the answer to attacking crime head on.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:23) - Why is crime increasing?

(02:11) - tatistics on Violence in Latin America

(03:16) - Migration and Its Complexities

(04:41) - The Paradox of US-Latin America Relations

(06:56) - Root Causes of Crime in Latin America

(17:14) - Transnational Crime Networks

(21:48) - Local Control and Government Response

(33:46) - The Bukele Approach to Crime

(40:05) - The Challenge of Rule of Law in Latin America

(41:14) - Mexico's Approach to Crime and Militarization

(42:07) - The Paradox of Democracy and Authoritarianism

(43:44) - Criminal Organizations and Government Control

(46:49) - The Role of Criminal Groups in Society

(01:00:31) - The Need for Transnational Solutions

(01:07:53) - The Impact of the Pandemic on Crime

(01:10:17) - The Venezuelan Crisis and Regional Instability

(01:18:43) - Concluding Thoughts on Crime and Governance

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#212 - France’s Elections: Historic and Hysteric

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Shane McLorrain on the podcast to talk about French President Emmanuel Macron’s election gambit – and how it seems to blowing up in his face…but how it may not have the outsized impact on France than some expected.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:18) – Overview of France right now

(09:00) – Macron’s likability

(17:31) – What was Macron thinking?

(22:50) - Silver linings

(27:40) – French Civil War?

(32:14) – Effects on EU

(49:40) – What to watch

https://cognitivedissidents.org/

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#211 - Things To Come

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#210 - Elohim Monard and Ignacio Asis: Argentina Chainsaw Massacre

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob brings back Ignacio Asis and Elohim Monard for a long awaited reaction to Javier Milei’s victory in Argentina’s presidential election. They explore how his term has gone thus far, and break down the big bills he was able to pass through Argentina’s Senate this week. They also talk about regional and even international implications.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:19) - Discussion on Argentine Politics

(04:29) - Milei's Legislative Achievements

(05:54) - Economic and Social Impact

(10:17) - Milei's Government Reduction Strategy

(16:44) - International Perception and Narrative

(22:09) - Comparison with Bukele

(26:56) - Milei Learning Curve and Global Polarization

(28:37) - Security and Basic Agenda

(31:04) - The Role of Military and Security in Argentina

(32:46) - Narco-Traffic and Security Policies

(36:33) - Milei's Promises and Economic Agenda

(39:02) - Governance and Market Reactions

(42:39) - Regional Impact and Right-Wing Populism

(48:09) - Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

(52:31) - Conclusion and Disclaimer

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#209 - Let’s Talk About Artificial Intelligence

Fri, 14 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob tackle a subject they’ve been avoiding due to its massiveness and ubiquity: Artificial Intelligence. They also do a segment of microgeopolitics (Jacob was in Bogota this week) and close out with initial thoughts on French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprising decision to call for legislative elections after his drubbing in European Parliament elections.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Microgeopolitics: Bogota edition

(13:37) – Artificial Intelligence

(59:03) – France

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#208 - Matt McClintock: The Good Life and Personal Sovereignty: Introducing Bespoke

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Matthew McClintock, Founder and Executive Managing Director of Bespoke, to the podcast. Bespoke and CI are strategic partners, and this will be the first of what will become a monthly cadence as Jacob and Matt aim to explore and apply the intersection of geopolitics, investing, and blockchain with practical ideas about planning. Jacob and Matt have an open and candid conversation about Matt’s background, what Bespoke does, and offer some thoughts about how to think about estate planning, the future of money, and more.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Introducing Matt and Bespoke

(13:00) – Estate Planning 101

(25:30) – Iteration

(30:11) – The good life

(43:00) – The future of money and the role of crypto

Bespoke:

Bespoke: https://bespokegroup.io/

Matt’s X: [https://x.com/mcclintock_m

Bespoke X: https://x.com/BespokeGroupCO

Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mattmcclintock/

Bespoke LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/bespoke-service-company-llc/ite: cognitive.investments

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#207 - Dmitri Alperovitch: World on the Brink

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Dmitri Alperovitch onto the podcast. Jacob met Dmitri via Twitter, where he was arguing against the case Dale Copeland made on the podcast for China not invading Taiwan anytime soon. Dmitri lays out why he thinks Dale (and Jacob!) are wrong – about China, about Taiwan, and about the United States.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(1:30) – Taiwan as Berlin

(17:10) – Taiwanese independence

(29:23) – Xi Jinpin psychoanalysis

(37:00) – US policy towards China

(44:13) – US strategies with China

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Dmitri’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096

Link to Sheinbaum article: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Omar-Masera/publication/226764071_Mitigating_Carbon_Emissions_while_Advancing_National_DevelopmentPriorities_The_Case_of_Mexico/links/550c5a0b0cf2ac2905a3db2b/Mitigating-Carbon-Emissions-while-Advancing-National-DevelopmentPriorities-The-Case-of-Mexico.pdf

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#206 - The Fourth Transformation: What’s at Stake in Mexico’s Elections

Fri, 31 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob takes to the mic solo to fire up the hot-take factory. He previews Mexico’s elections – situating Mexican democracy in its own history, surveying AMLO’s successes and failures, and parsing who Claudia Sheinaum is and why she might be better for Mexico than you think. He also identifies the key questions you should be thinking about in terms of the election and Mexican-U.S. relations going forward

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(00:08) - Mexico’s Geopolitical Importance

(03:03) - Historical Context of Mexico’s Democracy

(10:22) – Claudia Sheinbaum as AMLO’s Successor

(20:42) - Comparisons and Future Projections

(24:11) - Mexico’s Foreign Policy and US Relations

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#205 - Akshar Patel: Caste, Hindutva, and India's Elections

Mon, 27 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Akshar Patel joins the podcast to talk about India. Jacob and Akshar explore what caste really means, how religion and caste affect Indian politics, and explore Akshar’s idea of Ideologues v. Identitarians in Indian politics. They apply some of these insights to India’s upcoming elections and what is at stake in Modi’s transformation of the country.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:30) – The Emissary

(06:30) – Left v right in India

(12:20) – Caste and Religion

(35:05) – Farmers and Soldiers

(43:15) – Ideologues v Identitarians

(48:21) – India’s elections

(01:01:20) – India’s future

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Akshar’s article: https://theemissary.co/the-million-minorities-theory-of-indian-politics/

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#204 - Weekly Update: Darth Fed

Fri, 24 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are here to bring balance to the force. They discuss why inflation expectations might be coming unhinged, how the Fed is trying to scare the market with its response, and just how much the Fed doesn’t have under its control. Come for the market/geopolitics talk, but stay for the extended Star Wars metaphors and the advice at the end about why buy&hold might be a strategy of a bygone era.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:01) - Markets Check-In

(10:45) – Inflation expectations and why consumers are so mad

(19:14) - Weird wage growth numbers

(25:43) - Fed response

(34:50) – Inflation and markets are out of control + volatility clusters

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#203 - Kamran Bokhari: Drinking from the Poison Chalice (fixed)

Thu, 23 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Kamran Bokhari rejoins the podcast to offer insightful perspectives on the apex of the Iranian leviathan. They discuss Ebrahim Raisi’s shocking death, the implications of the future of Iran, and what a post-Khamenei world might look like.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Khamenei’s successor

(08:40) – Conspiracy theories about Khamenei's death

(14:13) – What happens next?

(25:00) – Weakening of the Supreme Leader

(36:30) – Chances of an Iranian civil war

( 44:42) – Houthis, Gaza, and Jordan

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#202 - Bearish US, Chinese/Indian Equity, Russia's Push, Trump's Mexico Policy and NBA Power Politics

Tue, 21 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Cousin Marko and Jacob are back at it. Marko shares why he’s turned bearish on the US after being “manically” bullish for many moons. They discuss China/India and compare/contrast the equity markets there. A brief discussion on Russia/Ukraine and Europe in general and a cold shower on former President Donald Trump’s threats to Mexico leads into an extended discussion on the NBA – predictions + the rise and fall of great players + the U.S.-led quest to hamper European success in the league. Enjoy, y’all.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) – US inflation, market, etc.

(09:45) – China/India markets and demographics

(31:00) - Regime risks in the USA

(32:55) – Europe - Putin's new defense minister, Russia's new push, Slovakia's assassination attempt

(44:30) – US/Mexico

(49:46) – Basketball

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#201 - Emergency Episode: Iran’s President is Dead + A Coup in the DRC?

Mon, 20 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob takes to the mic for an emergency reaction to the big event everyone is paying attention to from the weekend (Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident) and perhaps the one that is being missed (a failed coup attempt in the DRC).

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - Iran

(12:36) - Attempted Coup in DRC

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#200 - Tariffs are Taxes (and why you shouldn’t invest in utilities)

Fri, 17 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

What better way to celebrate 200 episodes than a Rob-Jacob episode full of important insights. Jacob and Rob talk about some of their best calls of the past few years before turning to the flooding in Brazil, opportunities (and risks) in the U.S. electricity sector, and the new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. They also talk about the cognitive bias of investing and financial advisory services.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:53) – Looking back on 200 podcasts

(12:53) – Cognitive biases in investing

(22:00) – What's happening in Brazil?

(30:00) – Why you SHOULDN’T invest in utilities

(52:50) – U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#199 - How to Avoid a U.S.-China War

Mon, 13 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Dale Copeland joins the podcast to discuss his latest book, “A World Safe for Commerce.” He explains his theory of dynamic realism before pivoting to U.S.-China relations and an impassioned and thoughtful hot-take on why those predicting a Chinese invasion of Taiwan don’t just misunderstand China – they are participating in the realization of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:40) – Multipolar or bipolar world?

(11:07) – Dynamic Realism explained

(21:38) – Conditions for Dale’s theory

(28:17) – U.S./China relations

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Dale’s book: https://www.amazon.com/World-Safe-Commerce-Revolution-International/dp/0691172552

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#198 - Brazil Under Water

Fri, 10 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is stuck in earnings hell, so you are treated to the dulcet tones of Jacob’s bass voice solo today. Jacob talks about the terrible flooding in Brazil and what it means for the country’s future. He also applies some insights from the disaster to housing insurance in the U.S. and other developed markets. He closes with a few thoughts on cocoa, coffee, and Mexico.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Brazil

(13:48) – Insurance

(20:21) – Cocoa and coffee

(24:37) – Mexico

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#197 - Weekly Update: China, France, and Steel

Fri, 03 May 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are back at it for their weekly chat. They talk about the latest rumor that the Chinese government will prop up growth rates, explore whether French President Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions are realistic, and close with some thoughts on protectionism in steel. NOTE: PLEASE FILL OUT OUR SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:00) - Trends in Energy, Jokes

(07:32) - The Chinese Economy

(16:48) - US Investors and Economy

(23:25) – France, Macron, + more

(41:31) – Steel

Referenced in the Show:

SURVEY!: https://forms.gle/83MoDGkJ2pLXnETy7

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#196 - Sanaa Kamal: A Voice from Gaza

Mon, 29 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

Jacob welcomes Sanaa Kamal, a Gaza-based Palestinian journalist who is currently in Egypt, onto the podcast. Jacob asks Sanaa about how her life has changed since Oct 7th and how she managed to reach Cairo. Sanaa bravely shares her story and her perspective on the ongoing war – and considering everything she has been through, her resilience and optimism in the face of such terrible adversity is admirable and worthy of emulation. A link to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, which she is using to get the rest of her family out of Gaza, is above.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:00) – Hell in Gaza

(16:03) – Escape to Cairo

(21:50) - What is the state of Palestinian refugees?

(27:05) – Can there be peace?

(29:55) - Hamas

(32:30) - How do we end the current conflict?

Referenced in the Show:

If you want to donate to Sanaa’s GoFundMe, here is the link: https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-the-kamal-family-escape-gaza

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#195 - Weekly Update: “Chaos” at U.S. Universities + Steel

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob return for a weekly chat about South Korea’s economy and challenges posed by the Asian economic model. They pivot to a discussion about entrepreneurship and whether it is in decline in the West, discuss steel markets and questionable decision making from large-cap U.S. companies. They close with a discussion of the “chaos” at U.S. universities and draw a different conclusion than you might think.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:00) - Lessons from ROK

(17:22) – Entrepreneurship

(35:18) – Steel

(49:23) – University upheaval

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#194 - Dee Smith: God, Sex, & Death

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Dee Smith on the podcast. Dee and Jacob have had several conversation on Real Vision, but Jacob wanted to host Dee himself so they could talk about whatever they wanted. This podcast sure does deliver that – they talk about whether the world is actually getting worse (Jacob is an optimist and Dee a pessimist on that score), and even dive into an extended discussion on immortality…and why thinking about deep humanistic questions is actually at the core of everything we discuss on this podcast.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:40) – Dee's 2024 outlook

(10:45) – Hans Morgenthau, Multipolarity, Understanding complex systems

(23:23) – Is the world getting more/less stable?

(29:30) – Immortality (Philosophical)

(37:15) - Russia & Putin

(48:46) – Mexico

Referenced in the Show:

Politics Among Nations: https://archive.org/details/politicsamongnat0006morg

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#193 - Marko’s Back!

Fri, 19 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

It’s been too long since Jacob and Marko, cousins by choice, got together to record a podcast. They dive deep into what Trump winning the presidency again could mean for global geopolitics and trade – while addressing topics like U.S. inflation, Iran’s attacks on Israel, U.S. v global investing opportunities, and…of course…hot basketball takes.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:07) – U.S. Economy

(20:17) - Israel/Iran/KSA

(25:13) - What happens if Trump wins?

(33:44) – Trump/Biden scenarios

(38:30) - Biden's track record and trade deals

(46:36) - Tariffs

(59:36) - Multipolarity, bipolarity, charts and the future

(1:05:03) U.S. v. Global (shout out Louis Gave)

(01:11:50) - Basketball hot takes

Referenced in the Show:

Louis Gave’s slides: https://research.gavekal.com/documents/10192/Unfoldinginflboom-apr2024.pdf

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#192 - Yoroslav Trofimov: "Our Enemies Will Vanish"

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign-affairs correspondent at The Wall Street Journal, takes time out of his busy travel schedule to join the podcast to discuss his recent book, Our Enemies Will Vanish – The Russian Invasion and Ukraine's War of Independence. Jacob and Yaroslav talk a little bit about his background before exploring some of the ideas he develops in his book – and looking toward Ukraine’s future, which Yaroslav makes the case is not so uncertain: that Ukraine’s independence has been secured in some form or another.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:40) – Yuroslav's Background

(7:20) – How did Russia get here?

(13:30) - Why did everyone underestimate Ukraine?

(22:40) – Zelensky v Zaluzhny

(27:04) - When are Ukraine's next elections?

(29:49) – Is the Russia/Ukraine war a stalemate? How much does Russia want?

(36:18) - German and European perspective on the war

(39:30) - Ukraine's relationship with China

(41:11) – The future

Referenced in the Show:

Our Enemies Will Vanish - Yuroslav Trofimov: https://www.amazon.com/Our-Enemies-Will-Vanish-Independence/dp/0593655184

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Emergency Update: Are we heading into World War Three?

Sun, 14 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Iran launched a bunch of missiles and drones. What next?

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#190 - Weekly Update: 47 Crises in 17 Years

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob discuss the nature of economic crises, before exploring recent developments in the U.S.-China-Japan love triangle. They also explore the expectedly/unexpectedly hot CPI print and take lessons for the future. Spoiler alert: We think the market is wrong about the yen!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Taxonomy of crashes/debating globalization

(12:26) – China, Janet Yellen,

(27:34) – Japan

(47:00) – Globalization revisited

(55:00) – Shameless plug

Referenced in the Show:

NYRB article: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/04/04/the-crash-next-time-seven-crashes-harold-james/

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#189 - Weekly Update: Coronal Mass Ejection

Fri, 05 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob are back at it. They discuss the earthquake in Taiwan and why they are skeptical of Taiwan’s economic future. From there they turn to a controversial article about how immigration has been driving US GDP growth and why demographics are not destiny. They close with some thoughts about the straitjacket of specialization and the dangers of too much expertise.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:10) - Taiwan

(19:40) - Coronal Mass Ejections and Black Swans

(23:07) – Taiwan

(25:10) – Immigration/Demographics

(45:30) – India

(47:30) – Historians rule

Referenced in the Show:

Angus Deaton – https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2024/03/Symposium-Rethinking-Economics-Angus-Deaton
Immigration and the US Economy – https://www.briefingbook.info/p/immigration-and-the-us-economy-since?utm_campaign=email-post&r=bkto&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Assuring Taiwan’s Innovation Future – https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/01/29/assuring-taiwan-s-innovation-future-pub-80920

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#188 - James Meadway: The First Crisis of the Anthropocene

Mon, 01 Apr 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes James Meadway, former British treasury official and current economist at The Progressive Economy Forum on for a cross-posted episode of Cognitive Dissidents and Macrodose. They discuss James’s recent essay about why COVID was both an accelerant of underlying trends, but also the first “crisis of the Anthropocene,” a phrase borrowed from Adam Tooze. They explore issues related to debt, climate, and prospects for growth.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:39) – Defining terms

(11:41) – Weaponizing finance

(20:50) – Crypto/Milei

(28:00) - WW3 + Ecological disasters

(40:57) – Debt

(45:15) – Can we grow our way out of the problem?

(51:30) – Silver linings playbook

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Macrodose: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/macrodose/id1646528688

Link to James’s essay: https://socialistregister.com/index.php/srv/article/view/42873

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#187 - Sim Tack: Can Ukraine Still Win Against Russia?

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob has been growing increasingly more concerned about Ukraine, so he starts his bottom-up analytical review of the war and Ukraine’s prospects by hosting Sim Tack on the podcast. Jacob throws a bucket of questions at Sim to try and figure out what, if anything, has changed at a strategic level in the war. From there they speculate on European support for Ukraine in the future, whether Ukraine can still win, and a reframing of what could actually take Russia out of the war.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:12) – Lessons from Avdiivka

(13:10) – Signposts for Ukrainian and Russian collapse

(24:00)– Can Ukraine still win?

(29:30)– Sim’s take on Macron/French support for Ukraine

(38:30) – Where does the ammunition come from and

(40:43) – Ukraine's F16's

(47:54) - Zelensky v Zaluzhny and what it would take to get Russia out of the war

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#186 - Matthew Pines: Cyber, Bitcoin, and Aliens

Mon, 25 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Buckle your seatbelts – this episode is going to take you on a ride. Matt Pines rejoins the show to discuss “the defining challenge of our generation” – the cyber conflict between China and the U.S. From there, they explore the global implications associated with the fragmentation of society due to digitalization and how it might impact currency, trade, and the future of war. And because it’s Matt they close by discussing aliens. Of course

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:48) – China v. US cyber conflict

(21:28) – Kinetic threshold

(37:48) – Bladerunner 2024

(50:48) – Bitcoin/Hunger Games

(57:33) – Aliens

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#185 - Weekly Update: Why We Still Like Japan & Other contrarian takes

Fri, 22 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are pressed for time, but they squeeze in a quick podcast between meetings to discuss the big news out of Japanese markets this week. They give a window into CI’s international allocation strategy and what countries they are feeling good and bad about, before turning to political intrigue in Vietnam and lessons for and from the U.S. semiconductor industry after the allocation of over $8 billion in grants to $INTC.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Japan and the Fed

(17:30) – Yikes Canada

(22:09) – Vietnam

( 31:41) – Intel and the CHIPS Act

Referenced in the Show:

Economist Article: https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/03/19/why-japans-economy-remains-a-warning-to-others

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#184 - Kevin Evans: The Largest Invisible Thing in the World

Mon, 18 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Kevin Evans to discuss Indonesia – Kevin’s experience in the country over the last three decades, the recent elections and mysterious change in the political mood of the country since 2019, Prabowo and his political ambitions, and the future of the Indonesian economy. They close with some talk about Jakarta and Indonesian food.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:25) - Why Indonesia

(06:06) – Shadows of authoritarianism

(14:00) – Prabowo

(29:25) – Future of the Indonesian economy

(41:25 – Indonesia-Oz relations

(44:33) – Jakarta

(54:02) – What to eat

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#183 - Weekly Update: What is a Doji (and Why Should I Care?)

Fri, 15 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a marathon episode featuring your favorite segment, microgeopolitics, and extended discussion about technical analysis and why you should be wary of the euphoria in markets right now. They close with some thoughts on the latest (and hot) inflation print, and some notable developments in Ukraine and China.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:54) – Microgeopolitics – WI Dells

(14:20) – S&P 500 reversal?

(23:00) – Technical analysis

(29:50) – Japanese candlesticks

(47:30) – Inflation

(58:40) – Ukraine

(1:06:30) – China

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#182 - Gary Saul Morson: Russian Exceptionalism

Mon, 11 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Professor Gary Saul Morson of Northwestern University joins the podcast to discuss his recent article in The New York Review of Books about “Russian exceptionalism.” Gary explains what Eurasianism is, to what extent it motivates the decisions and ideology of the Kremlin, and how to think about the history of Russia’s ideas about the Westin the context of Russia and Ukraine’s futures.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) – Eurasianism

(17:00) – What does Putin think/believe

(28:06) – Russia’s views of the East/China

(32:32) - Russian exceptionalism

Referenced in the Show:

Link to Gary’s piece: https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2024/02/22/russian-exceptionalism-foundations-of-eurasianism/

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#181 - Weekly Update: What If Trump Wins? (Tariff edition)

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is on the road, Rob is on vacation…and still they bring the analytical firepower to you each week! They do a little microgeopolitics on Eden Prairie, MN, before tackling a big, scary question: What happens if Trump wins and actually does what he says he will do in terms of tariffs? They close with a few thoughts on Emmanuel Macron’s spicy week.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:43) – Microgeopolitics (Eden Prairie)

(11:54) – What if…tariff edition

(20:30) - Tariff of Abominations History Lesson

(27:00) – Investment takeaways

(42:00) - Rejoinders from the Trump administration

(44:40) – France

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

#180 - Matt Gertken: The "Black Swan" Scenarios

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Matt Gertken, Chief Geopolitical Strategist at BCA research, onto the show. They reflect on their careers at Stratfor before diving into Matt’s thoughts on the Chinese economy, Taiwan’s future, and “Black Swan” Scenarios investors and analysts should have on their radar in 2024.

See: https://www.emilydickinsonmuseum.org/to-make-a-prairie-1755/

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Pleasant Prairies and A Middle East Update

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is in a spicy mood, coming to you live from Pleasant Prairie WI. He and Rob do another round of “microgeopolitics” on this part of Wisconsin before diving into the Middle East and updating on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. That segues into a brief conversation about the future of Europe before Jacob squares off against ChatGPT to find historical analogies to the UAE’s strange $35 billion investment in Egypt.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:50) - Kenosha, WI

(16:50) – Middle East update

(40:02) – EU future

(50:40) – Egypt, the UAE, etc

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

What’s in a name? (North Korea edition)

Mon, 26 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Rodger back onto the podcast to talk about North Korea’s recent decision to call South Korea by its official name – as well as its abandonment of reunification as its most important geopolitical goal. They explore the potential ramifications of that for North Korea, South Korea, and Japan, before thinking through scenarios for the Korean peninsula in the context of U.S. elections. They close with Rodger’s thoughts on demographics, democratization of military tech, and the Arctic.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:05) - North Korea

(13:10) – South Korea

(18:30) – Nuclear proliferation/

(23:15) – Internal DPRK dynamics

(29:29) - U.S. election scenarios

(33:38) – DPRK v ROK war

(35:47) – Rodger’s macro view

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Horseradish Capital of the World

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob hits the road and brings perspectives on geopolitics and markets from the point of view of Eau Claire WI, formerly Sawdust City, home of Bon Iver, the once mighty U.S. tire industry…and the biggest horseradish producer around. Rob and Jacob discuss the U.S. tire industry and the lessons its demise poses for geopolitics and markets, before backing into conversations about China, U.S. trade policy, NVIDIA HYPE, and human capital.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30)– Eau Claire, WI

(04:30) – Tires

(24:15) – China and Mexico

(30:03) – Trump's U.S. trade policy + semis

(43:37)– Human capital

(51:00) – Quick global roundup

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Making Astrology Respectable

Fri, 16 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a victory lap on higher-than-expected U.S. inflation. They tackle a listener-submitted question about where Chinese deflation might affect the U.S., and explore the political impact of inflation/deflation and both the U.S. and China. They close with a brief survey of geopolitical risks in the world going unnoticed as Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Palestine, and the Chinese economy crowd out the space for headlines.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:17) - Inflation

(11:34) - Political Side of Inflation

(23:57) - Is China in deflation?

(45:25) - Venezuela x Guyana

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Extrapolating Doom

Fri, 09 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is busy trying to get French citizenship, so favorite-guest Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro joins the podcast to talk U.S. macro, oil and natural gas prices, and how to think about investing in a world of doom & gloom.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:45) – U.S. macro

(09:26) – Oil

(20:15) – NatGas

(27:55) – U.S. v. Intl | Hong Kong/China

(41:35) – Extrapolating doom: Egypt and Pakistan

(49:10) – Bitcoin

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Dams and the Rio Grande

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Caroline Eaton Tracey joins the podcast to offer a thoughtful perspective on the Rio Grande River based on her recent article in The New York Review of Books. After discussing how dams on the river supported by the Mexican and U.S. governments have changed local communities and endangered natural ecosystems, they turn to Caroline’s new research interest and the topic of her forthcoming book: Salt Lakes.

Timestamps:

Caroline’s website – https://cetracey.com/

Stopping the Old Rio Grande – https://www.nybooks.com/online/2024/01/11/stopping-the-old-rio-grande/

Climate change and the Rio Grande – https://e360.yale.edu/features/warming-and-drought-take-a-toll-on-the-once-mighty-rio-grande

Satellite images of the Rio Grande – https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150244/rio-grande-runs-dry-then-wet

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Confusion

Sat, 03 Feb 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Better late than never! Jacob was on the road this week so instead of recording on Thursday they had to record on Friday. The theme of the episode might be confusion – confusion over the narrative on the U.S. economy, on oil prices, on natural gas prices, and even on the future of Ukraine. There are more questions than answers in this episode during a surprisingly pivotal week in geopolitics.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:45) - US Economy

(14:05) – Middle East

(24:00) – Oil

(35:50)– Natural gas

(42:12) – Ukraine

Referenced in the Show:

Link to affective polarization article: https://carnegieendowment.org/2023/09/05/polarization-democracy-and-political-violence-in-united-states-what-research-says-pub-90457

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Blood of the Martyrs

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Farzam back onto the podcast – and they have a great deal to discuss, not least of which is the death of three U.S. soldiers in a drone attack by a group supported by Iran. Jacob and Farzam dive past the headlines and talk about what the consequences of the attack will be, whether Iran was behind it, and what Iran’s strategic thinking is in the region more generally, and especially in relation to Oct. 7 and the Red Sea shipping disruptions.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - What happened with the attack in Jordan?

(11:24) - Who was behind the attack? Was it Iran?

(20:26) - Chances for a regional war/Iran’s red lines

(31:00) – What does Iran want and how will it affect Red Sea shipping

(41:08) – Iran-China relations

(46:00) – Iran’s domestic politics

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

What's Happening (Right Now) With the Weather?

Mon, 29 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes weather expert Daryl Ritchison back on the podcast to discuss his 2023 hits and misses, his 2024 outlook, and to dive deep into questions of El Nino, weather history, and the riskiest places in the world to live.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:24) – 2023 in review

(07:56) – El Niño and the MEI

(14:24) – 2024 Outlook: North America

(26:35) – Buoys tangent

(31:18) - 2024 Outlook: South America

(35:00) – Pacific Decadel Oscillation/Dust Bowl

(44:00) – Most/Least riskiest places in the world to live

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Friction

Fri, 26 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob power through a difficult week to offer insights on how Chinese industrial policy is shaping the world. They explore how the semiconductor industry was buoyed by Chinese demand last year and express doubts about whether the good times will continue to roll in 2024. They talk about Chinese EVs, the proliferation of risk (and how to think about it from both a professional and investment perspective) before closing by parsing some interesting data about renewable energy capacity and what it might say about energy prices toward the end of the decade.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:45) - Semiconductors

(13:05) - How the government assesses risk

(27:19) – EVs

(41:02) – Energy/Batteries/Solar

(45:00) - Chinese capital controls and the Chinese stock market

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Trouble in the Red Sea, logistics snarls, China, and the U.S. election

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Crosspost with Sean Hanney's Frontlines from RealAgriculture!

Up for discussion in this episode:

Skirmish in the Red Sea — the U.S. is working to stop Iran-backed Houthi attacks in the shipping lane
Logistics are definitely impacted, but is it as big a deal as it could be?
There’s many players in the mix, and much to unpack on this one
Taiwan’s election is done. Does it make relations with China better or worse and why does it matter?
Speaking of elections, what about Argentina?
China/Argentina trade
On to America! The U.S. election set for November is going to be a wild ride
It doesn’t matter who wins, either way, it’s going to have a huge impact on geopolitics
The outcome of the U.S. election will be a major factor in shaping
geopolitical instability and volatility in the coming year, Shapiro says

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

What the Media Missed This Week

Fri, 19 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob tackle conflicting narratives about oil prices before diving deep into geopolitical and market issues in China and France. They close by addressing some user-submitted questions on the Red Sea and on the stories that are not discussed enough by the mainstream media.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:10) - Present and Future of Oil

(19:15) - China/Taiwan

(37:25)– France

(42:49) – Listener Q&A – Red Sea

(49:45) – Q&A – Under the radar

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Retrospectives and Predictions for the Ukraine War

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Sim returns to the podcast to talk about the successes and failures of Ukraine’s military forces and what the future looks like in the Russia-Ukraine war. From there they spend a bit of time talking about the Red Sea and Black Swans that might impact 2024 and beyond.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:40) – 2023 Russia-Ukraine War Retrospective

(15:15) – 2024 Russia-Ukraine War Predictions

(33:00) – Red Sea/Sahel/KSA oh my

(40:20) – Black Swans

https://www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/cocaine/Global_cocaine_report_2023.pdf

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Cocaine and the Catholic Church

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a deeper look at a recent World Bank study that purports to show how countries can increase investment…and in so doing reduce poverty and inequality. They tease out some of the assumptions the report makes but also point out how to think about the countries that will succeed in a multipolar world. They also check in on a few geopolitical hotspots: the Red Sea, Ecuador, and Germany…before a mea culpa about Ethiopian Airlines.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:14) - Red Sea Update

(14:00) - The World Bank

(24:40) - Let's talk about state institutions

(32:43) - Multipolarity, protectionism, & the destabilizing influence of unchecked capital flows

(40:53) - Germany

(45:50)- Ecuador: What cocaine and the Catholic Church have in common

(54:07) - USA, USA, USA

Referenced in the Show:

Protectionism: https://www.fdiintelligence.com/content/data-trends/protectionism-trade-restrictions-reach-an-alltime-high-82637

2023 Global Cocaine Report:

World Bank 2024 Economic Prospects: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/7a21a380-5c54-4a8d-9c54-22180abb1adb/content

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

What's Happening in the DRC?

Mon, 08 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Ben Shepherd joins Jacob to talk about the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ben urges listeners to think and look beyond the endless stories about violence in the DRC and instead to note, however, halting and fragile, the progress the country has made in the last 20 years and its potential in the future.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:36) – History and geography of the DRC

(15:15) - Why is it shaped that way?

(21:48) – Breakdown of Congolese misgovernance

(28:26) - Violence in the eastern DRC

(42:26) – Recent elections and the future

Referenced in the Show:

Ben’s recent article on DRC elections: https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/01/drcs-election-was-halting-step-towards-embedding-democracy

Map of Congo: https://alearningfamily.com/main/wp-content/uploads/DemRepCongoPhysical.jpg

King Leopold’s Ghost: https://www.amazon.com/King-Leopolds-Ghost-Heroism-Colonial/dp/0618001905

Bourdain episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k59ToTXOuuE

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

We're Worried About the Middle East

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 03:45:00 -0500

Smoke rises from the Red Sea. The hour grows late and Rob calls Jacob seeking his counsel. For that is why you have come, is it not…our old friends? If you like the Lord of the Rings, you got that joke. If you didn’t, what’s wrong with you? Welcome to the return of the Cognitive Dissidents podcast in 2024, with Jacob and Rob relatively downbeat about both markets and geopolitics to start off the year.

Timestamps:

(01:00) – Market expectations

(11:24) - Is the good economy just luck?

(18:22) – Chinese economy

(27:30) – The Red Sea

(43:15) – What's next for the world?

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Here's Looking At You, Dad

Fri, 22 Dec 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob returns with a few thoughts about family, love, and geopolitics.

Cybersecurity + Geopolitics (Matt Pines)

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Last week of reruns! Jacob Shapiro will be back next week with a full update on his situation and what to expect moving forward. Thank you so so so so much for being so patient with us! In the meantime, we have a fantastic episode with Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere. Matt breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity.

Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.

Timestamps:

(00:00)

(01:27) - Cyberwarfare

(20:10) - 5G + China + Huawei

(28:00) - 34:44 - Trust Networks

(34:20) - Has there ever been a full-on cyber war?

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Art of Geopolitics with Stratfor

Fri, 08 Dec 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rodger Baker and Jacob Shapiro sit down for a discussion about the art and science of doing good geopolitics. Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:23) - Mackinder and the Arctic

(24:36) - The Art of the Net Assessment

(34:30) - The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come

(41:44) - Will China invade Taiwan?

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Okay But... What IS Geopolitics?

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Today we have a classic Perch Pod episode with Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America.

Timestamps:

(01:10) - Intro

(04:47) - Why Geopolitics?

(07:18) - What is Geopolitics?

(25:19) - Geopolitics of the “Three Americas”

(47:16) - Mexico + South America- Discussing Immigration and Climate Change

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Remapping Global Supply Chains

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rachel Ziemba makes her debut on the podcast to discuss what you missed at APEC while everyone was focused on Xi and Biden, prospects for growth in Venezuelan oil production, and why the market might be a little too sanguine about oil prices in 2024.

Timestamps:

(00:51) – Argentina

(05:58) – Indonesia/APEC

(16:09) – Venezuela

(26:10) – Dark underbelly of the economy

(31:51) – Iran

(39:00) – Oil

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Strategic Intelligence Lessons for Decision-Makers

Fri, 24 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob pops onto Emre Doğru's Youtube show, Strategy Floor to discuss how Israeli intelligence failed to predict the Hama,s attack, the common mistakes in strategic intelligence analysis and forecasting, and managerial lessons for decision-makers.

Referenced in the Show:

Emre's Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xJA7wKNtJY

Emre's Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@ceyhunemredogru

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

President Javier Milei

Mon, 20 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro fires up the hot-take factory to give you some fresh, piping-hot analysis of Javier Milei’s surprise landslide victory in Argentina’s presidential elections.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Javier Milei

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Demystifying Chips, US-China Relations, & Intellectual Property

Mon, 20 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Paul Triolo onto the podcast for a nuanced treatment of the relationship between geopolitics and technology – in the context of U.S.-China relations, in the context of multipolar geopolitics, in the context of artificial intelligence, and how all these things are affecting the semiconductor industry in particular.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:02) – Current perceptions of deglobalization

(07:02) - Current reality of deglobalization

(15:15) - Is IP ever safe?

(24:01) - Semiconductors & AI & China

(30:08) - The trajectory of US/China relations

(39:40) - What's next for semiconductor production?

(47:20) - Geopolitical competition and the future of tech

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Playing Golf (Probably) Won’t Make You a Better Investor

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob gather for a chat about the big Xi-Biden meeting on the sidelines of APEC and what it means for the future of the bilateral relationship. Then they turn to passive v. active investing – and explain why playing golf won’t make you a better investor.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:30) - U.S-China relations

(32:04) - Investing

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Implosion of Ukraine

Mon, 13 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacek and Jacob brave illness to reunite on the podcast. Jacek offers a gloomy perspective on the Russia-Ukraine war, an optimistic perspective on Poland’s future no matter who rules its government – and a lesson to learn for the democratic world from Turkish pragmatism.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:52) - Polish elections

(09:00) - Will Ukraine be a part of EU/NATO?

(14:27) - Russia-Ukraine war

(20:45) - Can Ukraine produce their own ammunition?

(22:45) - Nuclear proliferation

(28:00) - Russia-Ukraine war

(29:16) - What's next for Poland/Polish awakening

(40:05) - Turkey in relation to Poland/Ukraine

(44:43) - Israeli's lack of strategic depth

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Something Rotten In The State of Ukraine

Fri, 10 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is on the road and Rob is fresh off earnings season but that doesn’t stop them from churning out a pod on life’s most persistent questions. They explore the demise of a nuclear project in the U.S. and what it means for the U.S. energy economy, Jacob comes clean about feeling pessimistic about Ukraine, and Rob talks about credit quality issues in the U.S. economy. It’s not all doom & gloom though – Brazil continues to shine.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:07) – Nuclear problems in the US

(15:30) – Brazil updates

(22:15) - Troubles for Ukraine

(32:50) – Credit problems

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Nile to Negev: Hafsa Halawa’s Take on Regional Turmoil

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Come for Hafsa Halawa’s deep insight on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from a regional point of view. Stay for her insight on the Sudanese civil war, the future of the Egyptian and Ethiopian states, and how everything in the region is interconnected.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) -9:35 – Regional considerations

(11:30) – Israel's perspective and strategic goals

(19:04) – Egypt, Jordan and the reinvigoration of Palestinian politics

(7:57) – Palestinian perspective

(38:22) – Sudan’s civil war

(48:40) – Egypt's spiraling situation

(53:46) – Ethiopia's civil war

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Hard Times in the 21st Century w/ Helen Thompson

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University joins the podcast to talk about her recent book. She traces three histories – geopolitical, economic, and democratic – to explain how the world reached its current level of disorder and why she sees hard times on the horizon.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:55) - Book Summary

(06:30) - Dealing with a changing landscape

(12:09) - Understanding Putin's motivations/US Energy

(17:30) - Suez Crisis and Germany and Energy

(25:11) - What's next for Germany and the EU?

(33:24) - Turkey

(39:08) - Economic nationhood

(43:54) - Inflation and monetary policy

(54:37) - Are democratic or authoritarian regimes more efficient?

(59:00) - Future of the UK

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Monopolies and Innovation

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 08:15:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob break down the Jerome's latest Fed announcement, inventory and manufacturing cycles, China's interesting new approach to semiconductors, and the inherent danger of monopolistic industries. They venture into the auto world and discuss recent issues with scaling up EV production, before turning to macro-trends and the geopolitical trends (in Mexico, Israel, and Saudi Arabia) that are driving CI's macro strategy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:23) - The Fed/Rates

(07:31) - Global cycles

(11:54) - China's new semiconductor

(13:54) - Monopolies and innovation

(22:15) - EV demand and production

(32:31) - CI's macro moves and geopolitics

(36:34) - Mexico, risk, and manufacturing

(43:00) - Suadi Arabia, war, and oil

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Worst Is Over for Argentina?

Mon, 30 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Elohim and Ignacio back on the podcast for a much more upbeat discussion about Argentina’s future in light of last week’s surprising triumph for Sergio Massa against the chainsaw-wielding libertarian Javier Milei. They also address recent changes in U.S. policy toward Venezuela – and explain why the country may be reaching a critical juncture.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) – Argentina election results

(10:04) – What is Peronism?

(17:34) – The role of social media

(26:11)) – Milei’s chances in the next round

(42:35) – The role of the military

(51:15) – What happens next?

(56:54) – Venezuela

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Don’t Trust The Gurus

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob offer thoughts about U.S. macro out-performance and some concerning signals coming out of Europe. From there, they offer some thoughts about CI’s unique approach to using geopolitics in the context of investing. They close with thoughts about the life-cycle of analysts and investors and a cautionary tale about guru-syndrome.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:55) - US Macro

(08:20) - US consumers are doing well??

(12:10) - Economy is good, so why is Joe's rating bad??

(15:15) - Migration surge at US border

(17:25) - Immigration trends

(24:00) - Europe Updates

(32:53) – Geopolitics and investing

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Uncertainty and Ideology

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob get introspective and take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the newsflow recently to talk about the rise of uncertainty, the importance of what you choose to pay attention to, and the impact of ideology on geopolitical constraints. Along the way they talk about U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Israeli-Palestinian War, Hindu nationalism, the future of Mexico, and more.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(3:35) - Attention and Uncertainty

(12:55) - Fear and Uncertainty

(17:50) - Why are markets so unstable right now?

(25:33) - The Law of Unintended Consequences

(36:00) - Are we headed in a good direction?

(41:08) - Does a multi-polar world increase the importance of ideology and preferences relative to constraints?

(56:25) - Ideologies are malleable at the moment

(01:02:05) - How do we apply these concept in investment?

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Turkey’s Perspective

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Emre Dogru back on to the podcast to discuss Turkey’s view of the violence happening in the Middle East. Emre takes a break from eating baklava to explain why he thinks the violence spiraling out of control is unlikely at this point – but he and Jacob explore scenarios for escalation that could prove this view wrong. Jacob will be appearing in a video on Emre’s channel next week on the concept of intelligence failures and lessons to learn for executives – we’ll be sure to share it with you when it comes out.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:41) – Turkey’s view of the war

(09:54) – Turkey and Iran: Frenemies 4 lyfe

(12:20) - Turkey in a regional war

(16:45) – Turkey, energy, Saudi Arabia

(19:23) - Prospects for regional war

(26:49) – Turkey-China

(28:25) – What if the conflict spills?

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The Future of the Post-Soviet World

Mon, 16 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Eugene Chausovsky, former Stratfor alum and now Senior Director at Newlines Institute, to discuss all things post-soviet: wtf is going on in the Western Balkans, prospects for Ukraine’s inclusion in the EU, whether Azerbaijan will stop at Nagorno-Karabakh, and the many intersecting interests of Central Asia. From there they discuss China and what lessons China may have learned from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine re: Taiwan. They also make a global plea for more Georgian food, plz and thx.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:14) – Serbia/Kosovo

(06:08) - Ukraine/Russia

(19:07) – The South Caucasus

(31:36) – Central Asia

(41:05) - end – China

Referenced in the Show:

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Fraying World Order - Intrigue Outloud Crosspost

Sat, 14 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

On today's Intrigue Outloud, Ethan is joined by Intrigue co-founder John Fowler and Jacob Shapiro, Partner and Director of Geopolitical Analysis at Cognitive Investments, to break down the latest from the conflict in Israel and Gaza, and to consider what the fighting tells us about the state of the world order. Thanks to our sponsor, Millennium Space Systems.

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

What You Missed During the War

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob join forces to catch you up on all the important geopolitical and market developments that the Israel-Palestine war has obscured. They tackle carnage in the U.S. bond market and some very worrying developments in the Chinese economy. From there, they briefly explore gold as an investment opportunity as well as the profile of a good emerging market investment, before closing with thoughts on energy markets.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:02) – U.S. Treasuries

(11:14) - Government spending increases... an issue??

(14:15) – China’s treadmill to hell

(20:45) - What is recapitalization?

(24:00) - China's banking consolidation

(25:46) - Can China use ForEx to wipe out their liabilities?

(28:00) - Gold

(34:34) - Emerging markets -> Chile

(38:55) - Emerging markets -> Turkey

(45:45) - Emerging markets -> Argentina

(47:00) – Oil and natural gas

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

This Time Is Different

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian war. They explore regional considerations, Iran’s role and motive behind supporting Hamas, and consider scenarios for what could happen next.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:05) - Hamas' tradecraft

(11:42) - Iran and the West Bank

(19:00) - How does this affect the image of Hamas and Iran?

(28:17) - What is next for Iran?

(34:55) - Does Israel go after Hezbollah?

(40:40) - Joe Biden's next steps

(45:44) - Where is Turkey in all of this?

(51:00) - Egypt's role in this crisis

(55:51) - The Muslim world's take

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Not The Worst It Can Be: An Israeli Perspective

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 00:00:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Israeli geopolitical analyst Nitzan David Fuchs to offer an Israeli perspective on the terrible events of the past few days and the difficult weeks ahead.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:15) - Israel's intelligence failure

(08:15) - Israel/Hamas situation update

(10:20) – Hamas’s intentions

(17:08) - Is Iran behind this?

(22:12) - What are Israel's strategic goals?

(29:33) - How do hostages fit into the situation?

(36:00) - How long does Israel have to accomplish its goals?

(38:59) - How will this affect Israel's relationships with Arab neighbors?

Referenced in the Show:

Nitzan's Twitter: https://twitter.com/nitzandfux

Substack: https://nitzangreatgame.substack.com

Great Game Pod: https://greatgame.blog

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Settling Scores

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Cousin Marko is back at long last – he and Jacob discuss why U.S. elections are the most important thing in the world geopolitically and all the myriad ways a multipolar world is influencing the balance of power and investment decisions. They close with the best basketball analysis you’ll find anywhere in the U.S. YEAH WE SAID IT!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) – U.S. Elections

(16:53) – Score settling in geopolitics

(31:35) – Europe x China relations

(43:47) – Ideologies under multipolarity

(50:45) - China and the U.S./investment implications

(1:00:25) – Over/Under

(1:06:54)-end – Basketball

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

The First Israeli-Palestinian War

Sun, 08 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is in the middle of Mississippi without his fancy microphone, but that doesn’t stop him from recording a reaction to the Hamas attack on Israel and Israel’s declaration of war in response. Jacob tries to compartmentalize the politics and emotion of the situation – a nearly impossible task – to explain what is going on at both a local and regional level and what this escalation in violence will mean.

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Opium War Lessons (For Fentanyl)

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are on the same continent for a change! They try to make sense of recent volatility in oil prices and take a victory lap on being ahead of the curve on the bloodbath in bond markets. From there, they explore the U.S.-Mexico-China love triangle and what history can and can’t teach us about the future of those three countries. Last but not least is Ukraine’s quest to become the Israel of Eastern Europe and whether Kyiv can produce weapons for itself in sufficient quality and quantity to maintain its counteroffensive against Russia.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:06) - Oil/Crude

(07:11) - Macro Context/Bond carnage

(16:47) - US x Mexico x China relations

(30:45) - Is the US reliving Chinese history with fentanyl

(40:50) - Migration and coordination

(45:00) - Ukraine wants to build its own weapons

Referenced in the Show:

The Third Opium War – https://www.cirsd.org/en/horizons/horizons-winter-2019-issue-no-13/the-third-opium-war

CRS backgrounder on U.S.-Mexico relations – https://sgp.fas.org/crs/row/R42917.pdf

Jacob Site: jacobshapiro.com

Jacob Twitter: x.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: bit.ly/weekly-sitrep

Agriculture x Geopolitics (RealAgriculture Crosspost)

Mon, 02 Oct 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro and Shaun Haney unpack the India-Canada diplomatic nightmare of the last few weeks and how the Ukraine/Russia war might end.

Link to RealAg Post: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/09/frontlines-national-interests-vs-ideology-indian-separatism-and-western-support-for-ukraine/

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Cognitive Investments is an investment advisory firm, founded in 2019 that provides clients with a nuanced array of financial planning, investment advisory and wealth management services. We aim to grow both our clients’ material wealth (i.e. their existing financial assets) and their human wealth (i.e. their ability to make good strategic decisions for their business, family, and career).

Referenced In The Show:

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Cognitive Dissidents should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before putting your money into the markets.

The Politics of Hope

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob dive into some key macro developments – and why they confirm some of CI’s contrarian investment theses. From there, they discuss recent problems in the European Union and Mitsubishi Motor’s decision to leave China, before doing a rapid-fire set of topics to close the podcast.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) - Macro Overview

(19:20) – EU problems

(25:20) - No optimism in EU

(36:06) – Japan automakers leave China

(40:15) - 4 interesting events

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Hope is the Last Thing that Dies

Mon, 25 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Daniel Stelter to the podcast to begin his research process into the future of the German economy with a sober conversation with an expert who thinks Germany is a long-term short. Dr. Stelter's take differs greatly from the one we take at CI, and we really enjoyed hearing his perspective on the future of Germany.

Dr. Stelter is the founder of the German Discussion Forum Beyond the Obvious (www.think-beyondtheobvious.com), focusing on strategic and macroeconomic issues. He has written several books, mostly in German.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(05:00) - Why are you pessimistic about Germany?

(06:04) - Germany's demographic problems

(09:35) – Germany’s education problems

(14:00) - Germany's energy problems

(19:39) - Why is Germany failing in education?

(25:00) - Why pessimist about German demographic trends ?

(37:00) - “Deindustrialization” and other fairy tales

(44:49) - How bad will things get?

(53:33) - How to fix Germany?

(57:16) - A few thoughts on the future of the EU

www.think-beyondtheobvious.com

Jacob Website: https://jacobshapiro.com

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Why Should I Care About Nagorno-Karabakh?

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob continues to fight through a cold to bring you the geopolitical content you know and love. His weekly chat with Rob starts off with Brazil – and why an interest rate cut in Brazil should matter a big deal from an investment point of view. From there, they touch on the top developments of the week in the South Caucasus and Ukraine before philosophizing on Canada-India relations.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:20) - Snot

(02:02) - Brazil cut interest rates

(11:11) - Brazil/US real estate liquidity

(16:37) - Interest rates, commodities, manufacturing in China

(22:51) - Nagorno-Karabakh

(30:18) - How weak is Russia? What's next?

(33:05) - Why should I care about Nagorno-Karabakh?

(38:44) - Ukrainian Worries

(46:00) - India and Canada

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

Referenced In The Show:

The Pitfalls of Green Energy Policies

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob reunite to discuss developments in geopolitics and markets. They talk about environmental policies and their discontents, explore the hysteria on German deindustrialization, and offer a few thoughts on China’s recent tech resilience.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:24) –German Industrialization

(06:00) - The backlash against Green Politics

(22:17) - German Industrialization 2.0

(39:28) - China’s tech resilience

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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50 Years Since Allende - An Update on Chile

Mon, 11 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Dr. Robert Funk onto the podcast to discuss how Chile has changed over the last 50 years, and more importantly how it will change over the next 10. They briefly explore the legacy of the coup against Allende before exploring why Chile has always been a little bit different than the rest of Latin America…and whether Chile can avoid being caught between great power competition in the years ahead.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:27) - The legacy of the Allende coup

(08:33) - Chile's development

(12:35) - Chile’s constitutional process

(15:50) - Another social explosion?

(18:00) - Is Chile a good investment?

(22:50) - Why does Chile have strong institutions?

(27:00) - Chile’s global position (energy, trade, politics)

(31:42) - China's attractiveness to Chile

(34:20) - Chile’s regional geopolitics

(39:30) – Chile’s future

(42:00) - Ideological and political choices

(43:50) - Will Chileans ever feel like the coup was justified?

Links:

Dr Funk’s article: https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/fifty-years-later-he-haunts-us-still/

Christopher Hitchens article: https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v24/n13/christopher-hitchens/11-september-1973

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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The Modern Geopolitics of Turkey

Fri, 08 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl back onto the podcast to discuss their respective deep-dive reports into Turkey’s geopolitics. They go back and forth about whether Istanbul or Anatolia is Turkey’s core before taking a very macro view at Turkey’s foreign relations and the risks/opportunities ahead for the Turkish state.

Ryan’s report: https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/modern-geopolitics-turkey

Jacob’s report is only available for CI clients. Email jacob@cognitive.investments to discuss access.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:35) – Istanbul v Ankara

(06:35) - Turkey's Economy

(14:00) - Turkish Coalitions

(17:10) - Turkey and Russia

(22:27) – Turkey and NATO

(27:30) - Turkey and China

(30:35) - Erdogan's Policy

(32:15) - Turkey and the Middle East

(38:00) - Predictions

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Japan: A Story of Stagnation and Change

Mon, 04 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Professor Stephen Nagy onto the podcast to talk about Japan’s internal contradictions, its influential foreign policy, and the role Japan will play in protecting its cherished “free and open Indo-Pacific.” They even spend a few minutes talking about Canada (you’re welcome, Canada!)

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Migration

(06:36) - Changes in Japan's countryside

(10:15) - Stagnation in Japan

(15:43) - Japanese/Chinese relations

(21:50) - South China Sea

(28:42) - Chinese military vs. Japanese military

(32:40) - Japan and the Korean Peninsula

(38:40) - North Korea

(42:11) - Japan and India/Southeast Asia

(46:30) - Canada

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Depreciable Life of Information

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day grind of the news flow to talk about how they think about information more broadly. They take a philosophical dive into the challenges of our current media environment, parsing through their own participation in the phenomenon and how they filter out the noise. They finish with some best practices on information gathering.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:32) - How to think about information

(13:15) - The challenges of information overload

(19:11) - Participating in the media environment

(24:50) - Healthy skepticism

(26:30) - Journalism

(33:00) - Information gathering tactics

(39:00) - The human brain, aging, and information

(48:00) - The refraction of old models

(52:40) - The value of being a contrarian

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Hope and Change in Latin America

Mon, 28 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes back Elohim Monard to the podcast – who brings with him fellow Latin America expert Igancio Asis. They discuss the momentous political events in Guatemala, Argentina, and Ecuador over the past week and set the stage for deeper conversations in the future about the role of criminal enterprises in Latin American politics, whether Argentina can ever really change, and the future of China in the region, among other things.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) – Guatemalan Elections

(14:44) – Argentinian Elections

(40:40) – Ecuador

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

WTF Happened to Prigozhin?!

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob fires up the hot-take machine to confront the news about Prigozhin’s death head on, before doing a brief tour of the world to give listeners a “global sitrep” before he heads out on vacation.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:55) – Prigozhin

(08:06) – BRICS

(12:00) – India

(14:52) – Ethiopia

(15:52) – Guatemala

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Superconductors and The Future of Fusion

Mon, 21 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro welcomes Myles Stapelberg, a member of CI’s Innovation Advisory Board, back onto the podcast to discuss the news about the “discovery” of a room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor. From there, the pivot to developments in nuclear fusion over the past 6 months and some of the challenges and opportunities in the fusion space – a subject bereft with lofty promises, sensationalism…but also real progress.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:32) - What is a superconductor?

(12:00) - What is LK99?

(14:40) - Fake superconductor claims

(19:00) - Is LK99 significant?

(22:30) - Prospects for a usable room temp superconductor

(25:45) - New developments in fusion 22:03

(30:00) - Diving into fusion technology

(36:33) - Helion x Microsoft partnership

(44:40) - Will we see fusion reactors within our lifetime?

(53:00) - Which country is developing fusion the fastest?

(57:25) - Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Call Me “Jake Solo” 😏

Fri, 18 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob takes to the mic alone to update you on the latest geopolitical developments in the world while Rob, Cousin Marko, and seemingly everyone else in the world is on vacation. Must be nice!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:51) – Argentinian Primary Elections

(03:36) – Panama Canal

(04:40) – Ethiopia and Nigeria

(08:48) – Nagorno-Karabakh

(09:39) – Wheat

(12:29) – China

(16:00) – Germany

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Canadian Beef (RealAg Crosspost)

Mon, 14 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is featured on RealAg Radio with Shaun Haney! They'll dig into China’s economic and social standing and what Russia might do next. You’ll also hear from Joyce Parslow, with Canada Beef, on new culture, lifestyle, health and wellness information programs launched for Canadian beef AND a spotlight interview with Tom Barrie of Koch Ag Services on comparing nitrogen stabilizers.

Check out RealAg Radio here: https://www.realagriculture.com/category/realag-radio/

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Pain of Deglobalization

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Chase pinch hits for Rob in CI’s weekly update with Jacob. Chase offers a sober take on inflation, before Jacob and Chase explain their bullishness on natural gas and energy in general for the rest of the year. They close with an examination of Japan’s recent moves – and explore how deglobalization is affecting both Japan and China in tandem.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:20) - Inflation

(10:08) - Jerome's Take

(15:05) - Chinese Deflation

(20:00) - Higher Commodities

(22:30) - Natural Gas

(33:50) - Coal

(42:00) - Cannabis

(43:40) - Telecom and 5G

(45:16) - Japan Update

(56:13) - China and Japan's Relationship

(01:00:30) - China's Economy

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Colonialism 2.0 - The Scramble for Africa

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to pick up where he and Jacob left off a month ago: about the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel. Sim and Jacob discuss the nitty-gritty of the security situation and how it raises disturbing opportunities for radicalized jihadist voices in the region. From there, they wax philosophical about whether Africa is facing a new era of colonialism and how to approach the broader challenges facing the region, before closing with some brief thoughts on Russia and Ukraine.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:00) – Military intervention in Niger

(05:00) - If there is an intervention in Niger- who?

(09:00) - Regional Interests and jihadist opportunities

(12:00) - Realistic interventions

(18:00) - How do you contextualize this in the larger Saheli context?

(25:30) - Does this matter for the world?

(31:40) - What are Russia and China thinking?

(35:20) - Neocolonialism 2.0

(41:46) - Chinese Interests

(47:25) - Should we intervene in Niger?

(55:00 - Russia-Ukraine Update

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Niger’s Coup

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Paul Melly joins the podcast for the first time to offer some much-needed insightful analysis on the developing political situation inside of Niger and the Sahel in general. Jacob and Paul discuss the coup itself and why it looks like the junta is here to stay. They discuss the myriad external actors – France, the U.S., Nigeria, ECOWAS, China, Russia, the EU and Algeria, to name just a few – and how they are thinking about the situation. Paul closes with his best guess on what happens next.

Saheli Map - https://cdn.britannica.com/44/241344-050-084F77EE/Locator-map-Sahel.jpg

WSJ Article - https://washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/03/mohamed-bazoum-coup-niger-democracy/

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:40) - Paul's background

(09:00) - Niger Coup Recap

(20:00) - How stable is the region or new regime?

(29:08) - External actor interest

(44:00) - What happens next?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Aliens

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Matt Pines back onto the podcast to follow through on his promise to have a serious and rigorous conversation about unidentified aerial phenomena (UAPs). Matt and Jacob briefly address U.S.-China relations before addressing the controversial recent Congressional hearings about UAPs and exploring the political developments around UAPs and non-human, extraterrestrial life. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:26) - U.S.-China cyber relations

(09:26) - Is the US actively targeting China via cyber attacks?

(12:30) – Politics of aliens

(18:26) - Plausible Deniability?

(30:10) - Why is there US bipartisan support for alien investigations?

(36:40) – Do aliens exist?

(49:19) – What does it mean if they do?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Course Correction: China, Brazil, Turkey + More

Fri, 04 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are back at it for a weekly chat. They discuss disturbing news out of China that supports Rob’s pessimism in recent months and cuts against some of Jacob’s more optimistic thoughts. From there, they check in on Brazil and its interest rate cut and what the media is getting wrong about that, before closing with some thoughts on Argentina, Turkey, India, and a rapid fire discussion of important points that are not getting enough attention.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:21) - Disturbing News out of China

(06:13) - Chinese Rocket Force

(09:22) - Chinese stimulus

(13:17) - China's power base

(20:00) - Entrepreneurship in China

(24:04) - Brazil's Central Bank cut rates

(29:55) - Is there any hope for Argentina's economy?

(33:55) - Turkish Monetary Policy

(40:27) - Turkey is under Gulf influence

(43:11) - Does India want to get close to the West?

(48:30) - Room temperature superconductors?

(49:09) - West African Security

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Western Mining Tech is 40 Years Behind

Fri, 28 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes back Tomás Villalón Jr onto the Cognitive Dissidents Podcast. They deliver insights on what elements are truly rare (you’ll have to listen to the podcast to find out which!), why China has such a dominant position in gallium and germanium, and tackle the mania over lithium…before turning a little philosophical and laying out the challenges facing particularly democratic governments in increasing production of critical minerals in the years to come.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - What elements are ACTUALLY rare?

(11:00) - Can gallium mining be profitable in the US?

(14:44) - Chinese rare earth export controls (Gallium & Germanium)

(16:44) - Is Lithium just a current boom/bust cycle?

(21:45) - When will the US start approving more domestic mines? Does Democracy gum up our ability to mine freely?

(24:15) - Is China on the cutting edge of mining technology? Can the US catch up?

(27:35) - What are the ramifications of multipolarity on mining?

(31:00) - Is cutting dependence on China all talk? What will disruption look like?

(35:10) - Will PGM controls stall US technological progress?

(37:15) - Vertical integrations of mines into companies (think Tesla)

(38:20) - Semiconductors are beginning to vertically integrate

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

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Referenced In The Show:

Is The Weather Getting Worse?

Mon, 24 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro is rejoined by Daryl Ritchison for a reality check on the importance of El Nino in the larger atmospheric setting. They discuss whether weather (see what I did there?) is actually getting worse relative to historical averages and preview what the forecast ahead looks like for North America and Europe.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - Is the weather actually getting worse?

(07:16) - North American weather predictions

(14:00) - Weather expectations for the rest of 2023

(22:00) – What is El Niño and Niña?

(26:30) - Are we transitioning into El Niño?

(27:50) - How long to El Niño's last?

(31:12) - Long-term ramifications of El Nino

(35:50) - Larger weather trends?

(40:00) - 10 year forecast

(51:00) - Preventing another Dust Bowl

(53:00) - Europe forecast

(58:00) - Will Europe be warmer and wetter?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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EVs Are Not the Future

Sat, 22 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob catch up on Rob’s trip to Ireland this week and why it might presage new migration issues in Europe. From there they turn to the narrative about electric vehicles and why they are not the glittering solution they are made out to be, before diving deep into the U.S.-China relationship and checking on where China is on the treadmill to hell. Closing thoughts on wheat and natural gas.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:15) - Ireland Check-In

(09:40) - Migration Flows and the European Union

(18:01) - Brazil's EV Transition

(31:12) - China and EV's

(36:46) - China's Future

(44:11) - Consumption is the key to recovery in China?

(47:20) - China and US relations thawing?

(56:00) - Wheat and LNG

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-07-19/why-brazil-is-falling-behind-in-the-electric-car-transition

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

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Referenced In The Show:

Black Sea Grain Collapse

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob offers some thoughts on Russia’s decision to withdraw from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and analysis on Russia’s threats to bomb ships headed for Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea. This collapse affects developing countries He closes with possible scenarios going forward and explains what this means for wheat prices and other grains.

We will post our regular Weekly Update with Rob on Saturday, 7/22!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:34) - Black Sea Grain Deal Collapse Summary

(04:10) - Who does this affect?

(07:30) - Sunflower oil importers

(10:33) - Putin's twisted logic

(12:12) - Turkey's role in the Black Sea Grain Initiative

(14:50) - What happens next?

(19:59) - Most likely scenarios

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Erdogan, Hotdogs & AI

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob briefly analyze the latest inflation data from the U.S. before exploring major geopolitical news (Turkey’s about face on Sweden’s membership in NATO + Ukraine’s future in NATO) and economic news (Brazil’s tax reform). They close with a discussion about a potential emerging trend in health, brought to you courtesy of developments in Rio school cafeterias, and a warning about what the week ahead will bring for Peru.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - Inflation

(05:00) - What's the Fed's next move?

(10:00) - Are we nearing the end of the inflation crisis?

(14:06) - Germanium and Gallium

(16:30) - Geopolitics

(17:20) - Why is Erdogan doing such an about face in Turkey?

(33:49) - Brazil's Tax Reforms

(40:00) - Brazilian Hotdogs and AI

(47:44) - Quality of food

(51:35) - Peruvian Unrest

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Sim Tak's War Update + African Deterioration

Wed, 12 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Sim Tack rejoins the podcast to discuss current developments in Ukraine’s counteroffensive. He and Jacob discuss theories on wtf is happening in Russia before spending the second half of the podcast, as promised, on Africa – specifically, on political instability in the Sahel, how Russia is building networks of political relationships in Africa…and the impact on the rest of the continent.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:30) - Ukraine's semi-successful counteroffensive

(05:50) - Defining success for Ukraine

(07:20) - Russian readiness and analysis

(08:50) - Can Ukraine get the weapons that they need?

(12:50) - Let's talk about cluster munitions

(16:50) - What weapons class will Ukraine get next?

(19:38) - What happened with Yevgeny Prigozhin's failed coup?

(25:11) - Was the coup planned??

(26:11) - Russian military morale

(30:00) - Why should we care about what's going on in the African Sahel?

(33:32) - When did the Sahel begin to deteriorate?

(38:40) - The threads that connect West Africa

(49:30) - Wagner/Putin's African interests

(55:30) - Is the rest of Africa in danger of the Sahel's deterioration?

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Multipolar Mineral Greed

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

No guests this week – Jacob takes a step back to talk about the most important geopolitical development of the week, China’s decision to impose export controls on gallium and germanium exports, before teasing a new In-Focus piece on natural gas for Knowledge Platform subscribers.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:00) - China is restricting mineral exports

(12:21) - Natural gas teaser

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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The Stories We Tell Ourselves

Mon, 03 Jul 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob talk about why U.S. economic data continues to surprise to the upside and what it portends for the stock market. From there, they have a wide-ranging, very macro conversation about artificial intelligence and how geopolitics might help identify winners and losers from the coming tech revolution. They close with a few thoughts about protests in France.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:05) - Catching Up

(04:32) - Telling Stories with Data

(14:40) - Getting Meta

(17:20) - US Restricting AI Chips, Cloud Space to China

(28:00) - AI Infrastructure

(36:10) - Foreboding Developments in AI and Chinese Innovation

(43:00) - The Rise of the City-State?

(44:48) - Geopolitics within nations

(53:30) - Protests in France

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Water We Doing??? More Freshwater Talks with Peter Mayer

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Peter Mayer rejoins the podcast to discuss the recent deal between California, Nevada, and Arizona to reduce their water usage from the Colorado River. The deal is underwhelming – but Peter still has hope the states will find a more sustainable future in 2026 and beyond, though either way farmers in this part of the country face serious headwinds.

Part 1: https://cognitive-investments.captivate.fm/episode/water-we-waiting-for

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Colorado River

(10:30) - Is there a chance of improvement?

(14:20) - How do we fix this?

(17:07) - Geopolitics of water amongst US states

(19:54) - Can States realistically make cuts to their water usage?

(23:37) - Arizona vs. California

(25:09) - Legal issues with water

(29:00) - Possible scenarios with water rights

(30:55) - The next 10 years of water war negotiations

(33:49) - What's stopping desalination efforts?

(42:15) - Where do we go from here?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Economic Storms Ahead - Chase Calls a Recession

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Chase Taylor, the wizard behind Pinecone Macro Research, back to the podcast to discuss why he thinks a U.S. recession is near (and what indicators to watch for). From there, they explore Japan (bullish!), Nigeria (mixed!) and natural gas (bullish).

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:42) - Chase predicts a recession

(12:18) - Financial security and the gender gap

(15:30) - Macro credit

(18:20) - Futures in a recession

(21:00) - Signals and signs

(26:00) - Bullish on Japan

(29:00) - Japanese demographics

(34:00) - The World's Worst Yen Trader

(37:50) - China's role in Japanese markets

(41:05) - Chinese demand-side stimulus

(44:44) – Nigeria's Future

(50:00) - Nigerian Politics

(53:47) - Natural gas

(01:04:00) - Sports :)

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The End of Russia (Part II)

Mon, 26 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Cousin Marko try to make sense of what just happened in Russia over the last 36 hours…and what is going to happen next. They tackle the timeline of events with Prigozhen marching up towards Moscow and engaging Russian Military troops, then move into breaking down some of the more grounded conspiracy theories floating around out there. Jacob and Marko both agree that this is the end of Russia as we know it, and will usher in a new era of instability for the region (compounded with the Ukranian invasion). They then move onto the market implications, the Ukraine counteroffensive, tactical nuke scenarios, China, and then finally Basketball.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:03) - WTF is going on in Russia?

(09:00) - The end of Russia (No REALLY)

(12:30) - Putting conspiracy theories to rest

(18:23) - Internal strife

(25:14) – What happens next in Russia?

(31:56) - Market Movements

(40:06) – Ukraine Implications

(52:41) – Dam Explosion/Tactical Nukes

(59:36) - China

(1:04:18) – NBA talk and key takeaways

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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The End of Russia (A Russian Civil War?)

Sat, 24 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob Shapiro hops on the mic for an emergency episode to discuss WTF is happening in Russia. Yevgeny Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has claimed the city Rostov-on-Don in the south of Russia. He is currently marching along a highway towards Moscow and there are reports of fighting between Russian Military and Wagner forces. Putin has responded by naming the movement as an armed rebellion.

This episode was recorded at 9am Central Time, we will continue to keep you updated!

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Cash is King and Cars are Dumb

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is back from vacation and here to provide insights on the UK’s surprising inflation print and why CI believes inflation could be more stubborn than U.S. markets presume. From there, they discuss the latest developments in the Chinese economy – still the most important issue in the world, Titanic submarine developments notwithstanding – before discussing the auto industry and their shared skepticism on the rise of EVs.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(01:36) - UK inflation

(06:15) - US inflation

(14:56) - The role of energy volatility in Inflation

(16:30) - The value of liquidity

(21:13) - Energy companies

(22:30) - Multipolarity, inflation, and China

(27:00) - Xi Jinping vs. local government

(31:54) - The automotive industry

(40:13) - EV's + state-run capitalism

(44:30) - What's in a market?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Go Woke, Go Broke?

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Enrique Fonseca onto the podcast for the first time to discuss Spain’s upcoming elections. Enrique Fonseca takes a more conservative approach to politics than Jacob, although they both acknowledge their biases and continue to talk through their disagreements. They spar over the role ideology plays in modern politics and about the extent to which the Spanish left’s emphasis on identity politics has hurt its electoral chances.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:09) – Economy is good, but polls are bad?

(16:24) – Who is Podemos/the Spanish left?

(30:06) – History of Podemos

(32:04) - The radicalization of politics in Spain

(36:21) - Radicalization of politics globally

(42:30) - Liberalization of Spain

(55:20)– What happens next?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

A Dagger Pointed at the Heart of Antarctica

Mon, 19 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is joined by Reuben Steff to offer a fresh perspective on New Zealand’s geopolitics. They trace the history of New Zealand-U.S. relations, explore New Zealand’s trade dependence on China, share some thoughts on whether or not New Zealand will join AUKUS, and close on Jacinda Ardern’s legacy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(03:20) - Why does NZ care about the rest of the world?

(08:27) - Brief history of NZ foreign policy

(14:18) - NZ Security Policy

(23:10) - US/China Detente

(26:04) - The South Pacific

(34:20) - Resources of the South Pacific

(35:33) - Indonesia

(38:30) - AUKUS

(47:30) - Jacinda’s Legacy

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Russian Cascade - RealAgriculture Crosspost

Fri, 16 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob sits down with RealAgriculture's Shaun Haney to discuss the geopolitical ramifications of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. They walk through the Black Sea Grain Initiative, food prices, Ukraine's escalating counteroffensive, and China's lowkey efforts to arm Russia. Shaun and Jacob will be chatting once a month about the intersections of geopolitics and agriculture, with crossposts across all of our channels!

Check out RealAg here - https://www.realagriculture.com/

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

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Move Over, Big Oil – Here Comes Big Shovel

Mon, 12 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Tomás Villalón Jr. on the podcast to talk about the geopolitics of metals. Tomás is on CI’s Innovation Advisory Board in addition to being CTO & Co-Founder at Phoenix Tailings – which means he will be a repeat guest. In this episode, Jacob and Tomás talk about the geopolitics of metals from the highest levels, setting the stage for future episodes on supply chain disruptions, technological developments, and the future of mining…which for better and for worse is the bedrock of human civilization.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(05:42) - Geopolitics of Mining

(13:30) - Comparing energy and mining?

(15:50) - Future of metals

(17:25) - Will steel continue to be the centerpiece of industrialization?

(18:10) - What minerals are important and why?

(24:10) - Does the US have the capabilities to nearshore our minerals?

(28:30) - Energy supply and security

(31:08) - Grid Reliability

(34:00) - Private/Public partnerships in Big Shovel

(37:00) - Scarcity and Demand

(40:00) - Copper Futures, can we make the shift?

(45:00) - Leaders in copper development

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Forecast Revisited

Fri, 09 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob quickly discuss rumors of an imminent U.S.-Iranian deal that could allow 1 million bpd of Iranian crude to hit global markets, before checking on their 2023 forecast and seeing how well their predictions have fared in the first half of the year. From there, they offer a few key thoughts on what to look for in the rest of the year before turning to an important article published in Nature this week called The Illusion of Moral Decline. For the first time in his life, Jacob meets an optimist more unbridled than he.

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:24) - Iran-U.S. deal?

(17:43) – H1 2023 Forecast Recap

(33:20) – H2 2023 Forecast

(33:52) - Rob's Predictions

(37:18) - Jacob's Predictions

(43:00) - China, Local Government and Debt

(47:45) - Rob the Doomsayer (on China)

(51:03) – The illusion of moral decline

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Link to article: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06137-x#Sec4

Sucker’s Game

Mon, 05 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Cousin Marko rejoins the podcast at long last! Jacob and Marko start off with a rousing disagreement on the Russia-Ukraine war and its import on global geopolitics and markets. From there, they throw shade at wanna be geopolitical analysts who spend too much time pontificating about risk premiums rather than using geopolitics to find opportunities. After a brief discussion of Indonesia as an example of an opportunity, they offer their signature, cutting-edge basketball commentary.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) – Disagreement about Ukraine/Russian Offensive

(28:41) - Russia's Revolutionary History

(32:10) - Geopolitical Risk/Opportunity Premiums

(24:40) - European Futures

(42:09) - Ireland is Shining

(45:22) – Indonesia

(50:16) - Basketball

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED??

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a step back from the day-to-day melodrama of geopolitics and markets to talk about how they apply geopolitical insights to identify the countries that are poised to do best for the rest of the decade…and how they make investment decisions for CI clients based on this analysis.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:15) - Strategic Wealth

(14:00) - Brazil

(22:30) - Spotting Bad Analysis

(27:10) - Turkey and Indonesia

(32:07) - Speculation and Strategy

(37:14) - Economics is Always Wrong

(39:16) - The Importance of Qualitative Analysis

(45:10) - Poland

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Debate: The Future of Turkey’s Economy

Wed, 31 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Emre rejoins the podcast for a third time, offering analysis on what turned out to be an anti-climactic Erdogan victory. From there, Jacob and Emre look toward the future, offering opposing perspectives on what Erdogan’s victory means for the future of the Turkish economy and the performance of Turkish markets. If you want to see Emre’s charts, check out the pod on YouTube.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:30) - Election results analysis

(14:00) - Future of Turkish economy

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

No Cappuccinos After 11:30

Mon, 29 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Alfonso Peccatiello from The Macro Compass back onto the podcast for a conversation about Italian eating rules, the debt ceiling (should you care about it?), Chinese investment viability, and trade analysis on their favorite emerging markets.

You can find more of Alf’s work: https://www.themacrocompass.com/

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:18) – The debt ceiling/U.S. macro

(20:09) – Is China investable?

(27:35) – Europe, specifically, Italy, Poland, and Romania

(37:48) – Japan

(43:44) – Indonesia

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Failed Breakout

Fri, 26 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob talk about a decisive week in equity markets and what it means for equity prices. They explore the “AI bubble” and how to separate signal from noise. From there, they turn to China to discuss unemployment and local government debt issues in the Chinese economy and why the grand reopening narrative has and will continue to be wrong. They close with discussing countries/cities at the center of changing geopolitical circumstances – Hong Kong, the United Kingdom, and Ireland – and why Ireland might be a geopolitical winner for the first time in its long and luckless history.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:06) - Failed breakout + artificial intelligence bubble

(11:30) – China's Unhealthy Economy

(19:26) - What might China do if they start to freak out?

(27:28) - Hong Kong

36:30 - Long Ireland, Short UK

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Preparing for Ukraine’s Counter Offensive

Wed, 24 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Fan-favorite Sim Tack comes back onto the show to discuss the key issues to watch ahead of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Sim and Jacob break down the status of the Ukrainian and Russian militaries and explore the politics of support for Ukraine and how much time Ukraine has to defeat Russia. Bonus tangents on whether China will invade Taiwan and why you should care that the Sahel, a desert-region of Africa, is seething with instability and violence.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(11:20) – Where is Ukraine’s counteroffensive?

(24:05) – What are Ukraine’s objectives?

(30:32) – What is the state of Russia’s military?

(42:18) – Germany/EU/UK/EU/China views

(44:27) – Taiwan tangent

(46:07) – December 31st, 2023

(55:05) – The Sahel (conflicts you aren't paying attention to)

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Committing Geopolitical Suicide

Mon, 22 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Kamran Bokhari of The New Lines Institute rejoins the show to offer insights on the deterioration of political stability in Pakistan…and why the situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. From there, Jacob and Kamran train their sights on the South Caucasus, an underappreciated part of the world that is experiencing significant change due to geopolitical competition between Azerbaijan and Iran. They close with a few parting thoughts on Turkey’s recent presidential and parliamentary elections.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(03:00) - Pakistan and Imran Khan

(34:00) – Pakistan

(36:46) – South Caucasus

(56:02) – end – Turkey

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Thailand Election Analysis

Sat, 20 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Phillip Orchard onto the podcast to analyze the results of Thailand’s recent elections. They go over the results, Phillip offers some context on how to frame current developments, and they close with thoughts about the geopolitical consequences…with expertly executed basketball metaphors

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:20) - Election Results

(07:00) - Thai history

(20:00) – What does the opposition stand for?

(25:40) – Geopolitical implications

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Geopolitical Flux -> Market Turbulence

Thu, 18 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

It’s been a wild week in geopolitics and markets, but Jacob and Rob have got you covered. They discuss the slew of developments this week for the first part of the podcast, before diving deeper into the instability in Pakistan, global food prices, South America, and Germany’s commitment to Ukraine.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:00) - Markets/geopolitics overview

(24:55) - Pakistan + Global food prices

(41:53) – Brazil, Argentina, Ecuador

(55:36) – Don’t sleep on Germany

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Turkey’s Election Results – Rapid Reaction

Mon, 15 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes back Emre Dogru to discuss their reaction to Turkey’s surprising election results. What does it mean for investors and the region, and what should you be looking for as the contest goes to a run-off in two weeks? Also, how to pronounce the letter “g” in Turkish. (You’re welcome.)

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

https://www.cognitive.investments/research_advice

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Trouble With Emerging Markets

Fri, 12 May 2023 00:00:00 -0500

To learn more about the Knowledge Platform, click here:

Jacob and Rob talk about the release of CI’s Knowledge Platform and some of the broader macro themes they are focusing on, before turning to an around-the-world discussion of trouble in emerging markets. They close with some thoughts on the debt ceiling, U.S. dollar, and Japanese yen.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(04:50) – The Knowledge Platform Launch

(05:45) - What Is It?

(06:44) - Geopolitics and Disruptive Innovation

(11:20) - Deep Dive Explanations

(14:35) - Early Stage Innovation

(18:10) - Hydrogen rides on Iridium (Examples)

(20:00) - Cutting through the BS

(25:00) - Looking Short at Germany and the USA

(31:15) - Pakistan Unrest

(33:36) - East Africa/Sudan

(37:00) - The importance of institutions

(45:50) - Debt ceiling

(54:26) - Japanese Markets

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Most Important Election In The Middle East

Wed, 10 May 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Turkey's elections may not be fair, but they ~are~ free.

Jacob welcomes Ryan Bohl onto the Cognitive Dissidents podcast to discuss the least volatile region in the world – the Middle East. They talk through potential scenarios on Turkey’s upcoming election before exploring multipolar developments in the Gulf and in Iran, then closing with thoughts on the future of Israel and Syria's direction moving forward.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:06) - Turkey

(16:16) - Gulf/Iran

(34:24) – Israel

(47:21) – Syria

Ryan's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanbohl

Stratfor: https://worldview.stratfor.com/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Deep Dive: Uzbekistan and the Future of Eurasia

Sun, 30 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Welcome to the Deep Dive! We’re diving deep into the geopolitics of Uzbekistan – one of only two double-landlocked states in the world. In other words – Uzbekistan is one of only two states in the entire world that whose access to the world’s oceans is blocked by two states in all directions.

Uzbekistan is a crossroads for the Eurasian continent, wedged between numerous foreign powers, each with their own interests in bending Uzbekistan’s behavior to their favor. China, Russia, the EU, Japan, India, South Korea, the United States are all deeply interested in and fighting over Uzbekistan’s and Central Asia’s future.

Hopefully, by the end of this podcast, you’ll get a sense of Uzbekistan’s opportunities, its internal and external risks, and why the future of Eurasia depends on how those opportunities and risks evolve in the coming years.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Introduction

(02:53) - The Basics of Uzbekistan

(06:07) - What is Eurasia?

(12:08) - Russian and Chinese Interests

(23:45) - Everyone Else's Interests

(35:50) - Opportunities and Risks

(44:33) - The Path Forward

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Movements to Nationalize Lithium

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

TAKE THE SURVEY (please <3): https://forms.gle/TA2YX3GfV335Ey8d7

Jacob and Rob discuss why they continue to be more optimistic about U.S. macro than consensus – and the important geopolitical implications. From there they touch on Turkey’s upcoming elections and why fundamentals are more important than headlines, before closing with thoughts the differences between Chile and Colombia and the recent spate of news around lithium nationalizations.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:30) - Jacob’s musings

(07:01) - U.S. macro

(17:38) - China-Ukraine

(25:13) - Turkish elections

(46:03) – Chile/Colombia/Lithium

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Economics and Geopolitics of Fracking w/ Bethany McLean (Perch Pod Repost)

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

In this fantastic episode from early 2021, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. While the episode is old, the content in it is still quite fresh and deserves more careful thought and analysis. Enjoy!

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(02:17) - The Economics of Fracking

(24:43) - The Geopolitics of Fracking + the U.S. as an Energy Superpower

(32:30) - Thoughts on the Future

(41:35) - Enron

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Positive Outlooks, African Instability, and Warren Buffett's (Implied) Endorsement

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob are back at it after a few weeks apart. They discuss positive data they are seeing relative to current gloomy expectations, before discussing the biggest geopolitical issues of the last two weeks: Lula’s visit to China, Mexico-U.S. relations, the fate of the European Union and the Black Sea Grain Initiative. They close with some thoughts about the recent political instability in sub-Saharan Africa…and with a shout-out to Warren Buffett for coming around on our long Japan thesis.

Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:54) – Market update with Rob!

(13:00) – Brazil and Mexico

(30:00) – EU/Grain Deal

(44:00) – North African Instability

(54:45) - Oil Prices

(56:04) – Warren Buffett

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Understanding Ransomware as a Service (RaaS)

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Matt Pines rejoins the podcast to talk cybersecurity basics, including the overlooked importance of non-state actors and how that can affect near-shoring. From there, Matt and Jacob explore what changing technology can mean in a more geopolitical world, especially as it relates to Artificial Intelligence, before talking about aliens. Yup, aliens. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and is appearing on the podcast in a strictly personal capacity.

Survey: https://forms.gle/NZs3sAZFoahxzycH6

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:00) - TikTok and Cybersecurity Basics

(9:00) - Near-shoring Pitfalls

(16:13) - Chinese Hardware Vulnerabilities

(22:40) - Which Countries are Safest from Chinese Ransomware?

(25:13) - New Frontiers for Threat Actors

(31:16) - Everyone is Networked, Everyone is at Risk

(42:06) - Is Privacy a Dead?

(49:08) - Aliens :)

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Immaculate Disinflation

Fri, 07 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob is on vacation this week, but the pod never rests! Chase Taylor of Pinecone Macro Research and Bulwark Capital pinch hits for Rob. Jacob and Chase talk about the latest developments in the U.S. banking sector before turning to commodities, especially oil and gas, to try and figure out where prices may be going in the wake of Saudi Arabia’s surprising production cut earlier this week. They close with some spicy NBA finals predictions.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:50) - Banking crisis/Chase’s macro view

(15:43) - Who said something about Oil? You cookin’?

(34:25) - Commodity supercycle

(43:29) – Natural Gas

(51:05) - Basketball

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Prisoners To Nearby Prices - The Biggest Issues Facing Farmers in '23-'24

Mon, 03 Apr 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes back Neil Townsend ahead of the GrainFox “Before You Grow” Event, where Neil and Jacob are both speaking. Together, Neil and Jacob try to look beyond recent headlines and identify the biggest issues affecting farmers in 2023/24 as well as discussing trends in land values and food consumption. They discuss whether farmers should expect a “war premium” to return to grain prices and their conclusion about where that war premium is likely to show up in the market may surprise you. They close with a conversation about China and why this might be a good year for exports to the Middle Kingdom.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:11) - Biggest Issues For Farmers in 2023/24

(8:50) - Local Farming Geopolitics

(14:32) - Consumer Food Prices

(20:00) – A “war premium” for grain prices and what that really means

(29:23) - China and Rural Farming

(32:44) - Russia's Grain Power

(41:30) – China and Ag

Link to GrainFox Event: https://events.grainfox.ca/2023-before-you-grow

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Thriving In a Volatile Macro Environment

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob take a step back and question some of their previous optimism about U.S. growth and the Chinese re-opening. They discuss the role of China in the global economy and wrestle with what China’s data does or doesn’t tell us about prospects for international growth and the potential impact on emerging markets and the dollar. From there, they turn to surprisingly high inflation figures in Europe before closing with extended thoughts on Brazil and Indonesia – and why they might fit the profile of countries capable of thriving in a volatile and uncertain macro environment.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

2:30 – U.S. Macro

7:50 – China Macro

22:06 – Inflation in Europe

27:30 – Brazil and Indonesia

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Emergency Episode: The Future of Israel

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob tackles the historic protests in Israel head-on and offers a sober take on the future of the Jewish state.

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Is Turkey Still a Democracy? (Fixed Audio)

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

The answer might surprise you. Emre Dogru joins the show for the first time to discuss the economic and political impact of February’s tragic earthquake before turning to Turkey’s upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections and why he remains relatively optimistic about Turkish resilience in the long-term. Emre and Jacob close by discussing what might really change from a policy perspective no matter who wins the elections and prospects for investing going forward.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:34) – Econ + political impact of the earthquake

(15:50) – Turkey’s upcoming elections

(38:00) – Policy changes and investment implications

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

Timestamps:

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Inflation’s Much Exaggerated Demise + The Power of Soft Power

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

It has been a deceptively quiet week in markets and geopolitics. Rob and Jacob give you the sober update you need on the SVB crisis and why they are more worried about other things, like corporate debt and a private equity bubble. From there, they tackle the big China-Russia meeting this week and engage in a wide-ranging conversation about whether China has “soft power” and whether China’s future is necessarily authoritarian.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:11) - Market Update

(14:48) – How to think about debt

(28:05) – The Xi-Putin visit and the future of China

(36:48) - Soft Power

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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What is GPT, Why Should I Care? + The Future of Energy and Crypto

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Futurist and friend Garry Golden joins the podcast for a repeat appearance with an eye on how fundamental changes in technology will shape the coming decades. This is a conversation with a wide angle lens and a very long-term horizon: Jacob and Garry explore the future of energy (and debate biofuels v. hydrogen), discuss the current state of play in crypto and what the future holds for blockchain, before turning to a very introductory discussion of generative artificial intelligence and why Jacob should probably start using ChatGPT as a tool for his analysis.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:36) – The future of energy

(26:06) – The future of crypto

(43:11) – What is GPT, Why Should I Care?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Spotting the Next SVB - 2024 and Beyond

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob discuss what happened at Silicon Valley Bank – and why CI knew there was trouble in Silicon Valley as far back as May 2022. Rather than pat themselves on the back too much, Rob and Jacob talk about the importance of focusing on the right information and explain some of the things that they are focused on today that might be the Silicon Valley Bank stories of 2024 and beyond. They close with some thoughts on whether SVB will have any contagion in Europe before making a defense of deep generalists against over-specialization.

Jacob's email is jacob@cognitive.investments

Timestamps:

(3:43)– What happened at SVB?

(12:10) – How we knew something was wrong in 2022

(31:30) – What we are focused on in the future

(36:38) – What about Credit Suisse and Europe?

(41:53) - In Defense of Generalists

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Genuine Partnership or PR Blitz? - The Normalization of Saudi/Iranian Relations

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Kamran Bokhari back to the podcast for an emergency discussion on the normalization of Saudi Arabia-Iran relations announced in China last week. They discuss the interests of all the different players and analyze what to take seriously – and what is just a PR moment. From there, they look at how different countries in the region will see the deal, including Israel, Turkey, and India. After a brief dive into the evolution of the Saudi nation state, they close with thoughts on Kamran’s prediction from December that the end of the Iranian regime is nigh.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:49) – The Saudi-Iranian-Chinese agreement.

(30:20) – Turkey’s view + a brief aside on the evolution of Saudi Arabia

(47:28) – The role of India

52:00 – The future of Iran

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Egypt Shouldn't Be Doing Well... But It Is?

Fri, 10 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob discuss the Fed resuming its previous hawkishness and tease out underappreciated areas of the economy where more expensive capital could have consequences, especially related to U.S. energy production. From there, they take a brief look at geopolitics in Egypt and Turkey before turning to the biggest geopolitical news of the week you probably didn’t pay attention to – the rapprochement in South Korea-Japan relations.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:48) - Market update

(16:20) - Egypt

(24:55) – Turkey

(30:08) – Japan/South Korea

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Crosspost: How does the Russia-Ukraine war end? w/realagriculture

Mon, 06 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

This episode is a crossover episode with realagriculture! RealAg Radio host Shaun Haney and Jacob sit down for an in-depth discussion on the factors influencing the Russia-Ukraine war, one year in. From leaders’ messaging, to Western involvement, to figuring out China, and finally to how it all ends, Shapiro shares his thoughts.

Catch the original here: https://www.realagriculture.com/2023/02/how-does-the-russia-ukraine-war-end-on-china-the-west-and-the-fog-of-war-with-jacob-shapiro/

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Long Wheat, Short Soy

Fri, 03 Mar 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob breakdown China’s shockingly good PMI data and what it will mean for inflation and U.S. dollar strength. From there, they look closely at European economic data and walked away chastened about Europe’s prospects for the rest of year. Midway through the podcast, Rob and Jacob offer a new segment – “Anatomy of a Trade” – and discuss recent positions (long wheat, short soybeans) in CI’s Macro strategy, before closing with some thoughts on the future of Mexican democracy.

Timestamps:

(00:00) – Intro

(01:50) – China PMI data/strong U.S. dollar

(18:16) – Yikes on the EU

(29:08) – Long wheat, short soybeans

(50:06) – Mexico

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Debating China’s Rise

Mon, 27 Feb 2023 04:00:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes Emily de La Bruyère on to the podcast for a robust debate about China’s global intentions and the future of U.S.-China relations. In a conversation blissfully bereft of inane chatter about spy balloons, Emily and Jacob disagree about China’s strategic intentions and the extent to which the U.S. is dependent on China. From there they discuss the critical role of Europe in the U.S.-China bilateral and before honing in on specific ways listeners can make use of these conflicting (sort of) narratives.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:51) – What does China want?

(15:50) – Who is more dependent on who?

(24:20) – A solar case study

(41:15) – Whither Europe + Action items

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Inflation Expectations

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob give a brief recap on market developments and how to think about rising inflation expectations. From there, they pivot (get it?) to discuss a strange story out of China, where coal prices and coal supply are simultaneously rising at the same time, and what that might mean for global energy markets in general. They touch on the 1-year anniversary of Russia’s war with Ukraine – and why time is not on the side of the latter – before closing with some thoughts on a geopolitical shift in the Philippines and the pitfalls of strategic ambiguity in Taiwan.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:48)– Market update

(6:40) - Energy Price Rebounds

(8:15) – China and Coal

(25:08) – 1 Year of Russia-Ukraine War

(42:30) – Taiwan and Philippines

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

China Coal Article: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-02-20/china-s-coal-mining-boom-is-running-on-fumes

Measuring the Apex of Modern Industrial Society

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

How do we measure a society's ascent into modernity? Is it their ability to make cars or manufacture their own vaccines?

If they lose these abilities or never progress out of the the primordial ooze of political turmoil, what does that make them?

Rob and Jacob tackle these questions and much much more for this week's episode of Cognitive Dissidents.

They'll revisit China’s real estate crisis, offer thoughts on Pakistan and India’s divergent policy directions, and speculate on the future of EVs!

Special guest appearance by HRH Anne the Love Shapiro.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:40) - China Housing Updates

(13:00) - China Developing Food Security

(19:10) – Pakistan is Quadrupling Coal

(23:04) – Indian Growth and the Costs

(30:02)– Lithium and nickel prices roll over

(32:36) - EV's

(38:05) - EU + Poland drama

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Cousin Marko: Balloons, Ukraine, and Kyrie Irving

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Marko Papic is back! Kyrie Irving got traded to the Mavs and it's confusing/upsetting/underwhelming. The Biden Administration is using their most expensive jet to flex on a balloon, and it signifies some important shifts in US-China relations. The topic of India is broached and we dive a bit into Ukraine! Tune in to hear more.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Introduction

(1:14) - U.S. coalition against China

(13:14) – Ukraine War

(34:14) – Multipolarity

(42:30) – India

(52:11) – Kyrie Irving

Marko's LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/marko-papic-geopolitics/

Marko's Twitter: https://twitter.com/Geo_papic

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

The Next 12 Months of War in Ukraine

Mon, 13 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob welcomes back fan-favorite Sim Tack to discuss the future of the war in Ukraine. The next 12 months (assuming it will last that long) are going to be a test of Ukraine's resolve, Europe's willingness to isolate Russia, and the US's desire to continue providing funding/supplies. Sim and Jacob ponder the clandestine operator that bombed the Nordstream pipeline, and try to figure out whether or not Ukraine will be receiving some fighter jets to move into offensive mode. Tune in to learn more!

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(1:40) – The next 12 months of the war

(23:50) – Assessing Europe’s true resolve

(36:10) – Who bombed Nordstream?

(44:00) – Is Ukraine getting fighter jets?

(52:50) – How long will the US and EU pitch into Ukraine?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack

Human Capital

Fri, 10 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

What happens when you have wage growth inflation, a consistently shrinking workforce, historically low unemployment, and surging investment from the government?

How do human capital issues (e.g. disability rates, death rates, declining life expectancy) and inflation play off of one another across the markets?

Rob and Jacob explore the concept of human capital from a variety of angles, starting with the a breakdown of the concept and the issues that threaten to slow down the US economy. They proceed onto possible solutions, the implications of these issues on macro investment, and end with some sage wisdom on why we should stay optimistic. Tune in!

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Introduction

(1:20) – Prayers for Turkey

(2:29) – The human capital problems in the U.S.

(11:30) - What trends can we use to explain these problems?

(21:50) – Are there solutions? Can we turn it around?

(35:25) – What are the investment implications?

(50:23)- Reasons for Optimism

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

China's Balloon Boondoggle

Tue, 07 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

What the heck is up with these Chinese Balloons?

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Balloons

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

What is Nuclear Fusion and Why Does It Matter So Much

Mon, 06 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Myles Stapelberg, a graduate student at MIT in the Plasma Science and Fusion Center and a member of CI’s new Innovation Advisory Board, joins the podcast to give us a primer on nuclear fusion. This will be the first of a few appearances for Myles – in this initial episode, Jacob peppers Myles with questions to understand the basics of nuclear fusion – what it is, why it is important, and how soon it might be till it matters in our own lives?

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(4:00) - What is nuclear fusion?

(11:30) - Why is nuclear fusion Important for the future of humans?

(24:15) - What are the different ways to achieve fusion?

(30:00) - What are the safeguards in place to stop runaway fusion?

(36:00) - Why was this recent breakthrough so important?

(43:50) - What is the timeline for nuclear fusion?

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Asynchronous Waves

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Rob and Jacob start off with a general overview of this previous week in macro, then turn to what might be in store for the future. Afterwards, they turn to the Biden administration's choice to float a larger military presence around the Philippines, breaking down their deter China and unsubtly escalating the US-China trade war. Simultaneously, India is starting to align with the US more deeply across supply chains and mutual beneficial agreements - leading Jacob to ask some serious questions about their commitment to non-alignment. Peru is still on quite shaky ground politically, so copper is obviously in the same place, and they take a deep dive into the most important unobserved Central American copper hub. Finally, Rob lets us in on Mexico's stock market bonanza, and the political reasons that underlie it all. Tune in to find out more!

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Intro

(2:10) - Global Macro Rundown

(13:00) - The Philippines

(19:00) - The US-China Trade War

(25:40) - India-US Relations

(30:30)– Peru + Copper + Oil

(37:23) - Copper + China Reopening

(40:00) - Important/Unimportant News Stories

(41:20) - Mexican Stocks + Next Presidents + Cartels

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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US-China Relations with David Firestein

Mon, 30 Jan 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is joined by David Firetsein, inaugural president and CEO of the George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations. They discuss David’s professional background and the work of the foundation before diving into trust in the U.S.-China relationship and prospects for the bilateral in the year ahead.

Timestamps:

(0:00) - Introduction

(2:40) – David’s background

(10:00) – George H.W. Bush Foundation for U.S. China Relations

(21:27) – Trust in the U.S.-China Relationship

(45:34) – The year ahead in U.S.-China relations

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced:

Link to David’s recent article: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-022-00117-y

Link to George H. W. Bush Foundation for U.S.-China Relations: https://bushchinafoundation.org/

David’s bio: https://bushchinafoundation.org/people/david-j-firestein/

Peru Crisis + The Many Lefts of Latin America

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Elohim Monard rejoins the podcast and pinch-hits for Rob’s usually weekly slot to address the ongoing and escalating deterioration of political stability in Peru. Elohim offers insightful perspective about what would happen if Boluarte resigned and shares disturbing allegations of terrorism and Bolivian involvement in the protests that have been circulating in Peru and that may set the stage for a military coup. From there, they take a brief tour of the other major countries of Latin America and how they are doing – and how the fate of the region may ultimately be in Brazil and Mexico’s hands.

Timestamps:

1:30-28:00 – Peru

28:00-39:00 – Brazil

39:00-45:10 – Colombia

45:10-51:46 – Chile

51:46-end – Mexico/Argentina

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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What is the Future of the EU?

Mon, 23 Jan 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Dario Fabbri comes back to the CD pod to talk with Jacob about the future of the European Union, Russia/China, and the political instability rocking Latin America.

Italy, Germany, and France are all dealing with the War in Ukraine differently, and their responses will have a ripple effect that moves far beyond the conflict. Is this a pivotal year for the EU? Structural changes to both industry and geopolitical policy are shifting the foundation of Europe into a new paradigm but... What does that mean? Find out by giving us a listen!

Dario Fabbri is a geopolitical analyst based in Italy. He is Director of the monthly magazine Domino and a columnist at Domani.

Timestamps:

1:36-20:30 – Italian domestic politics, relations with France/Germany

20:30-30:00 – Future of the EU

30:00-42:40 – Russia and China

42:40-end – Brazil/democracy

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

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Referenced In The Show:

Dario's writing: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/

Dario's podcast: https://choramedia.com/podcast/stati-di-tensione/

Dealing with Uncertainty

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob and Rob get a little introspective this week, using developments in China and Vietnam to talk about how to think about the world and the struggle between having too much information and how to make sense of it all. Along the way they discuss uncertainty around the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing protests in Peru, and why people are getting the Bank of Japan so wrong.

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/

Jacob LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jacob-l-s-a9337416/

Jacob Twitter: https://twitter.com/JacobShap

Subscribe to the Newsletter: https://investments.us17.list-manage.com/subscribe?u=156086d89c91a42d264546df7&id=4e31ca1340

Referenced In The Show:

Timestamps:

1:00 – 3:48 – Bank of Japan

3:48 – 24:29 – China reopening/narratives tangent

24:29-38:52 – Vietnam/intelligence tangent

38:52 – 48:00 – Eurasia

48:00 – end – Peru

The Geopolitics of Macro in 2023

Mon, 16 Jan 2023 03:45:00 -0500

Jacob is joined by Alf and Andreas of The Macro Trading Floor to discuss the increasingly intersecting worlds of macro and geopolitics in 2023. Alf and Andreas offer differing perspective about the future of Europe, before turning to questions around how to play China’s re-opening and what the effects of a recession in the U.S. will be on U.S. equity performance.

CI LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/cognitive-investments/