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This podcast is for informational and entertainment purposes and is not financial advice. We do not provide recommendations or endorse any decision to buy, sell or hold any security. We cannot be held responsible for any actions listeners may take and investors are encouraged to seek independent financial advice.

Shopping the Drop: Is Anything Actually Cheap?

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 06:00:00 +0100

After weeks of market turmoil, asset prices across the board are lower than they were. But is anything actually cheap yet? We grab our valuation toolkit and go bargain hunting across stocks, bonds, and commodities to find out what's on sale.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does valuation tell you anything?

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Your Portfolio Wasn't Built for This

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Your portfolio was probably designed for falling interest rates and cheap oil. That is no longer the world we live in. Equity indices have minimal energy exposure. Bonds amplify losses during a rising rate environment. And even gold is down 20% from its peak. So what you can actually do when the big asset classes are struggling?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Index?

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The War of Unintended Consequences: Oil, Inflation, and Interest Rates

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

You've seen the oil price soar. But crude is just the start—the Iran conflict is sending shockwaves through natural gas, fertiliser, helium and a host of other commodities we take for granted. What does it all mean for inflation, interest rates, and how you might want to position your portfolio?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does the futures curve predict where prices are going in the future?

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Damien Talks Money: What Investors Click vs. What They Need

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

What does popular finance content reveal about everyday investors? Damien Jordan from Damien Talks Money joins us to explore the gap between the videos people click on and the information they actually need.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has making finance content changed how you invest?

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Capital Preservation: The Art of Not Losing Money, with Jasmine Yeo from Ruffer

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

No one likes to lose money. And some funds are designed to deliver a positive return whether markets go up, down, or sideways. Sounds easy. It isn't.

We’re joined by Jasmine Yeo, fund manager at Ruffer, to discuss the art of capital preservation.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If markets usually go up, why spend so much time thinking about what could go wrong?

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The Tariffs Are Dead. Long Live the Tariffs.

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in a landmark 6-3 ruling, and Trump responded by immediately imposing new ones under a different law. We look at what the ruling actually means and whether any of this changes the outlook for investors.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the "spaghetti bowl" effect?

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Crypto Winter 2.0: Be Careful What You Wish For?

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Bitcoin has had everything going for it: a crypto-friendly president, ETF approval, congressional legislation, institutional adoption, a strategic reserve executive order. And yet the price has halved from its all-time high. So what’s going on?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What happens when it costs more to mine a bitcoin than it’s actually worth?

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Kiss Your SaaS Goodbye: The AI Threat to Software Stocks

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

A trillion dollars was wiped off software stocks after Anthropic released an AI legal tool. Suddenly the market is asking: if AI agents can do the work, why pay for the software? The "SaaSpocalypse" has dragged everything from Microsoft to Salesforce down double digits, leaving Wall Street split on whether this is an existential risk or a massive overreaction.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a moat?

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Gold & Silver Crash: Is Bullion’s Bull Run Over?

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

After an incredible run, gold and silver just suffered their worst day in over forty years. Gold fell 11%. Silver dropped 30%. So what caused the crash?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do we spend billions digging gold out of a hole, just to put it back in a different hole?

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Vanguard Goes Global: Is Home Bias a Mistake?

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

After a decade of UK underperformance, Vanguard is going global. The UK’s most popular fund range is dialling back the domestic tilt, and launching a purely market-cap weighted alternative. We look at what's changing, whether you need to do anything, and if home bias is actually a mistake.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are multi-asset funds limited to stocks and bonds?

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Does Europe Have the Financial Firepower to Stand Up to Trump?

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

President Trump is threatening tariffs on eight NATO allies to force a deal on Greenland. Europe says it isn’t for sale. So what happens when an immovable object meets an unpredictable force? Tit-for-tat counter-tariffs, an untested “trade bazooka,” or the nuclear option: leveraging $8 trillion in US assets.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can a Treasury auction fail?

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Investing in Crazy Times: Should You Carry on as Normal?

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

The US has captured Venezuela’s president, the White House is openly threatening to invade a NATO ally, and the Fed Chair is under politically-motivated criminal investigation. Apart from that, everything's fine. But should you actually change anything about your portfolio? Or is "carrying on as normal" always the answer?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset risk-free?

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Investing vs. Gambling: How to Tell the Difference

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Where does investing end and gambling begin?

From Premium Bonds to meme stocks to deep-out-of-the-money options, today’s markets are full of bets that look a lot like lottery tickets. The line between rational risk-taking and pure chance has never been blurrier. So what really separates a calculated investment from a coin flip?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are boring stocks better?

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2026 Watchlist: Trends That Could Shape the Year Ahead

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

2026 is here, and markets are shifting in surprising ways. From jobless growth to energy gluts, we look at the trends that could shape the global economy over the coming year.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are we still on track for the Roaring 20s?

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10 Investing Facts That Can't be True (But Are)

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

We challenge your assumptions about stocks, property, economic growth and more, with ten facts that seem impossible—but aren't. Stocks beat cash, right? GDP growth helps returns, doesn't it? And war tanks the stock market... right?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What can Christmas Trees teach us about the futures market?

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The Naughty List: Assets That Misbehaved in 2025

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Which assets made The Naughty List this year? Some of 2025's most confident calls turned into cautionary tales—from momentum trades that stalled to consensus positions that backfired.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset immune to interest rates?

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The 2025 Stress Test: The Banks Are Safe... Are You?

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The Bank of England has just released the results of its 2025 stress test. In their nightmare scenario, inflation surges, house prices tumble, markets tank… and all seven major UK banks still pass. So the financial system might survive a crash. But would you?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are British banks too big?

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Devil in the Details: Is the Budget Worse Than Imagined for Investors?

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Buried in the Budget’s “boring” fine print is a sweeping overhaul of ISAs, new stealth taxes, and rule changes designed to squeeze anyone living off their assets. So, what’s really changing and what can you do to protect your money?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is now the time to emigrate?

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The Physics of Financial Markets

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Do the hard laws of thermodynamics apply to your money? What can avalanches, boiling water, and quantum mechanics teach us about markets? We explore where physics meets finance—and what it reveals about volatility, crashes and portfolio decay.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What should you study if you want to work in finance?

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How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Designing an investment portfolio that matches your goals is hard. Sticking with it through thick and thin is even harder. Today, we’re delighted to be joined by the creator of Portfolio Charts to consider risk, return, drawdowns and—crucially—your own behaviour, so you can find something that truly fits you.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does rebalancing improve returns?

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FIRE Drill: Is Financial Independence Still Possible?

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

You've done the maths. You've cut the lattes. You've maxed the ISA. And you're still decades away from financial freedom. So how are some people retiring in their 30s and 40s while the rest of us are stuck on the hamster wheel?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How much will I spend in retirement?

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So You’ve Decided to Time the Market…

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

You already know you’re not supposed to time the market… and yet here you are, hovering over the “sell” button because everyone’s yelling about a bubble. So where’s the line between reckless market timing and sensible risk management? We discuss the least destructive ways to panic.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between a crash, a correction, and a bear market?

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Beyond the Gloom: The UK's Hidden Stock Winners, with Ed Croft

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The UK stock market has traded at a discount for years. But amid the negative sentiment, some sectors have quietly defied the gloom.

We’re joined by Ed Croft (founder of Stockopedia) to dig into what’s working in the UK market, what’s broken, and where the best opportunities might be.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a value trap, and how do you avoid falling into one?

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The Debasement Trade: Faith, Fear, and the Fall of Fiat?

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Gold has surged 50% this year, silver even more, while the dollar has slumped 9%. Behind the rally lies a powerful narrative: that mounting government debt is eroding faith in traditional currencies, driving investors toward scarce assets like precious metals and crypto.

But is the so-called “debasement trade” a genuine secular shift—or just another momentum-fueled mania waiting to unwind?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between stimulating the economy and debasing the currency?

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Closed-Circuit Capitalism: Inside AI’s Trillion-Dollar Money Loop

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The AI boom is feeding on itself. Chipmakers, cloud giants, and model makers are increasingly tangled in a web of investments — each funding the other’s growth. Isn’t this what happened in the dot-com bubble?

We ask what happens when suppliers start financing their own customers — lending them money to buy their products.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are bubbles always bad?

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The Unbalanced Sheet: What Is Your Net Worth, Really?

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

On paper, your net worth is simple: assets minus liabilities. But what counts as an asset? How do you value things you can’t easily sell? And is the final number even a useful measure of your financial health?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How much do I need to be rich?

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What I’ve Learned: Keeping Your Portfolio (and Yourself) on Track

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

I’ve helped thousands of people to review their investment portfolios and check whether it’s truly aligned with their goals. Over and over, I see the same concerns, misunderstandings, and blind spots.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How can you keep yourself accountable?

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Cash on the Sidelines: Are Brits Scared to Invest?

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 14:30:00 +0100

Brits poured more than £100 billion into ISAs last year — yet two-thirds is just sitting in cash. Are we simply risk-averse or are there structural problems discouraging us from investing?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does cash have zero volatility?

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Gold is a Terrible Investment (And Why You Should Own It)

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Gold is a terrible investment. No earnings, no dividends, and long stretches where you trail stocks and bonds. So why do serious investors still own it? We dig into the myths, the maths, and how an asset with no cash flows can earn its keep in your portfolio.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If I own a gold fund, can I actually get my hands on the bullion?

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Stick or Twist: Should You Second Guess the Autumn Budget?

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Speculation is swirling about what tax changes the chancellor might unveil in the Autumn Budget. But with the announcement still more than two months away, is it worth paying attention to the rumours?

We dig into the policy measures making headlines, and ask: what—if anything—should you be doing now?

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Stocks vs. Bonds: Who Wins the Next Decade?

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Stocks are expensive, bonds are finally interesting, and suddenly the boring part of your portfolio doesn’t look so boring. With serious forecasters whispering that bonds could beat equities over the next decade, is it time to rethink your portfolio?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will zero interest rates ever return?

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The Visible Hand: Is America Abandoning Free-Market Capitalism?

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Washington seems to have moved from referee to player—picking winners, slapping tariffs on strategic exports, and even taking golden shares in critical industries. What are the implications for investors when the world’s biggest economy is shaped by backroom deals?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Did the US government profit from the 2008 bailout?

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FCA Lifts the Ban: UK Investors Can Buy Crypto ETNs—But Should You?

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The ban is over! From 8 October 2025, UK retail investors can buy exchange traded crypto products — potentially in an ISA or SIPP. So why has the FCA made a U-turn?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does scarcity make something valuable?

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Has Trump Won the Trade War?

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Four months after Trump shocked markets with sweeping tariffs, the results are in: new trade deals tilted toward American interests, a resilient economy, and Wall Street's return to record highs. We ask whether Trump has won the trade war. Or if it’s too soon to tell.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are trade deals about more than tariffs?

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Can We Still Trust the Economic Data?

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Investors and policymakers count on official statistics to stay grounded. But recent blunders in the UK and growing politicisation in the US have shaken trust in the numbers.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is GDP-B?

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The Everything Bubble: What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The S&P 500 is pushing dot-com era valuations. Bitcoin’s smashing records. Meme stocks have risen from the dead. And AI start-ups are landing billion-dollar buy-outs. What do you do when a bubble is staring you right in the face?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a gamma squeeze?

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The Unicorn Farm: Betting on AI Startups

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Global venture capital firms poured $126 billion into early-stage startups in the first quarter — and almost 60% went into AI companies. We look at where the so-called smart money is placing their bets.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a unicorn?

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Why Can't I Retire Early?!

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The dream of an early retirement is a powerful motivator for many investors. But often it remains just that: a dream. So what’s holding people back? Is it simply a matter of money? Or are there deeper, psychological reasons why people decide to keep working?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is the state pension like a bond?

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Is the UK Stock Market Dying?

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The UK stock market is shrinking. Since 2007, the number of listed companies has fallen by 45%, and those that remain trade at stubbornly low valuations compared to global peers. What’s driving the decline? And can it be stopped?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the new PISCES private stock market?

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Neural Net Worth: What If AI Isn’t a Bubble?

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

AI stocks are soaring. Valuations are stretched and capital spending is off the charts. To many, it smells like a bubble. But what if it’s not?

What happens to markets if AI actually lives up to the hype? How could it reshape business models, transform economic growth, and change the way we invest?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will index funds still work if the most successful companies stay private?

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Fragile Ceasefire: Are Markets Complacent?

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

President Trump announced a ceasefire in the war between Israel and Iran. Markets reacted swiftly: stocks rallied, oil plunged, the dollar and gold slipped. But as investors shrug off geopolitical tensions, are they underestimating the risks?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can you buy oil?

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Crash Course: The Scariest Days in Stock Market History

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Stock markets tend to go up over time — but every so often, they fall off a cliff. Some crashes are brief and recover quickly, while others shake the financial world to its core. But what can we learn from the scariest days in stock market history?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a circuit breaker?

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Outsmarting the Index: Strategies That (Sometimes) Work for Active Funds

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Beating the benchmark is the holy grail of active management — but it’s notoriously difficult and rare. Still, against the odds, a handful of portfolio managers do outperform the index, even if only fleetingly. We explore the tactics funds use to gain an edge.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the ‘Information Ratio’?

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Section 899: America’s Revenge Tax on International Investors

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The US is gearing up to turn a trade war into a capital war. Trump’s signature fiscal bill proposes retaliatory levies on investors from countries the US deems to have “unfair” tax regimes.

But what exactly counts as an “unfair” tax? How likely is this to become law? And what could it mean for investors holding US assets or doing business in America?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is capital flight?

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ISAs Under Review: Will Cash Savings Get Capped?

Wed, 28 May 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Big changes could be coming to ISAs — the tax-free savings wrapper used by 22 million Brits.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is preparing a major review of the ISA market, aiming to nudge savers away from cash and into stocks and shares. Could we soon see a cap on cash ISAs? And if so, how might that reshape the way millions of us save and invest?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the ‘cost of capital’?

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Know Thyself: How Risk-Tolerant Are You Really?

Wed, 21 May 2025 06:00:00 +0100

We all like to think we can handle a little risk – until the market drops 20% and we’re refreshing our portfolio every ten minutes. Understanding your true risk tolerance is one of the most important – and most overlooked – parts of building an investment plan. But what exactly is risk tolerance? Can it be measured? And how should it shape the way you invest?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should I wait until I've educated myself fully before investing?

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When the Free Lunch Bites Back: Navigating Changing Asset Correlations

Wed, 14 May 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Diversification is famously the only free lunch in investing. But when asset correlations shift, that meal might come with an unexpected bill. Economic cycles, inflation surprises, and market crises can all rewrite the rules when you least expect it.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can adding an asset with negative expected returns ever be good for your portfolio?

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Buffett Bows Out: Can Berkshire Thrive Without Him?

Wed, 07 May 2025 06:00:00 +0100

After six decades at the helm, Warren Buffett has announced he’ll step down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway later this year. But as the Oracle of Omaha prepares to hand over the reins, can Berkshire thrive without him?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why aren't there more investors like Warren Buffett?

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100 Days Down: Making Sense of Trump's Market Shockwaves, with Katie Martin

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Trump’s return to the White House is already reshaping the global order — sending shockwaves through financial markets. Asset prices have tumbled, correlations have fractured, and investors are reassessing risk itself.

We’re joined by Katie Martin from the Financial Times to help us make sense of the turmoil. Katie writes The Long View column and co-hosts the FT's Unhedged podcast.

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What to Buy in Your ISA In 2025: Is This Year Different?

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

It’s April—ISA season is here. But what should you buy? Should you stick with a classic index fund, or is there a case for doing something different this year? And if you’re tempted to have a little fun with your investments, how much is too much?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the point of a ‘fun’ portfolio if it’s not going to beat the market?

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Stars and Strife: Is This the End of American Exceptionalism?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

America’s economic dynamism, deep capital markets, and stellar equity returns have long made it the top destination for capital. But with US stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar all sliding together, cracks are appearing in the image of American exceptionalism. Could mounting chaos really lead investors to turn away from Uncle Sam?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why would you ever buy another country’s bonds?

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The Orange Swan: Surviving the $10 Trillion Selloff

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Global stock markets have plunged, wiping out nearly $10 trillion in market value. As the fallout from Trump’s tariff bombshell spreads, investors are left to wonder: How much worse could the selloff get?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Fed Put, and is it dead?

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The Trillion Pound Question: Is Government Debt Out of Control?

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

National debt figures are staggering, running to trillions of pounds in the UK and tens of trillions of dollars in the US. Headlines warn of unsustainable paths and ticking time bombs under our economies. But is government debt really out of control?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is government debt just like household debt, only much bigger?

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Quid’s In: How Much Can You Invest Tax-Free?

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The UK tax year is about to end, and most people know about ISAs and pensions. But how much could you really invest tax-free if you made full use of every allowance?

From Junior ISAs and SIPPs to dividend and capital gains allowances, we crunch the numbers to find out how much a typical family can shield from the taxman.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What would the ISA allowance be today if it had kept pace with inflation?

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The Hidden Bull Market: The Stocks Defying the Gloom

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The S&P 500 entered a correction last week, dragged down by Big Tech. But not all sectors are struggling. From booming defence manufacturers to resilient miners and banks—some corners of the market are defying the gloom. We look at which countries, industries and themes are thriving in 2025.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are market corrections healthy?

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New World Disorder: Investing Amid the Chaos

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 06:00:00 +0100

The world order is being shaken to its core. Old alliances are fracturing, trade wars are escalating, the US economy is faltering, and Europe is rapidly rearming. With markets in turmoil, how can we invest amid unprecedented uncertainty?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the ‘Mar-a-Lago accord’?

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The Road to Wealth: 10 Financial Milestones Worth Celebrating

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Growing your wealth is a marathon, not a sprint. But it’s important to celebrate milestones you reach along the way. Let’s raise a glass to shedding debt, investing wisely, and securing your financial future.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is all debt bad?

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Whale Watching: What If the Biggest Investors Dump Their Holdings?

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 06:00:00 +0100

When a big investor decides to sell, markets can move sharply. And some assets are particularly vulnerable, with ownership concentrated among a few large holders. What happens when the biggest whales dump their stocks, bonds or gold?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How does a stock exchange set a price if there's a buyer for every seller?

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Wall Street Wisdom: The Truth Behind Investing Clichés

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Financial markets are awash with timeless wisdom, dubious anecdotes, and questionable ‘rules of thumb’. But how do we separate fact from fiction?

We put 10 famous investing adages to the test.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why are investors described as Bulls and Bears?

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Are Your Investments Secretly Leveraged?

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Leverage is a double-edged sword that amplifies both gains and losses. But even if you haven’t borrowed to invest, hidden leverage may still lurk below the surface of your portfolio.

From gearing to derivatives to fragile operating models, we discuss the unseen risks of our investments.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can leverage ever be used to reduce risk?

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Trade War Truce: Crisis Averted or Just Delayed?

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Donald Trump’s trade war has begun! Or has it? Markets breathed a sigh of relief as sweeping tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods were suspended at the 11th hour.

But with tariffs on China now in force—and Beijing hitting back—will the reprieve be short-lived?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: How do you measure the strength of a currency?

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Trump, Tariffs and AI: The Stories Shaping Markets in 2025

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Markets are unruly beasts, swayed by shifting narratives, sudden rumours, and ever-changing expectations. But a handful of all-important stories will shape investor returns throughout 2025.

From interest rates to trade policy to AI, we explore what’s capturing the market’s attention — and why it matters.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Can bad news be good news?

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Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse, with Duncan Mavin

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Credit Suisse’s collapse shook the global financial system, forcing regulators into a frantic search for solutions.

We're joined by Duncan Mavin, author of the new book ‘Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse’ to discuss the downfall of a banking giant.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: How do you stop a bank run?

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Soaring Gilt Yields and Strained Public Finances, with Simon French

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Gilt yields are surging, straining government finances and raising fears of tax rises or spending cuts. But is this a UK-specific problem? And will the Bank of England be forced to respond?

We're joined by Simon French, Chief Economist and Head of Research at investment bank Panmure Liberum. Simon writes on economics for The Times and previously worked in senior government roles at the UK cabinet office.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why does the government need fiscal rules?

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Red Flags: China’s Economic Troubles, with George Magnus

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Since the sweeping reforms of the 1980s, China's rapid industrialisation and extraordinary growth have transformed it into a true global power. But the engine of China's economic miracle is starting to sputter. Sluggish demand, mounting debt, and unfavourable demographics suggest trouble ahead.

We're joined by George Magnus, a leading China expert who has written extensively on the risks facing the world's second-largest economy.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Can we trust China’s economic statistics?

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Jingle Bulls, Jingle Bears: Are Investors Overconfident Heading into 2025?

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Investor sentiment is more bullish than ever, with a record share of Americans expecting the S&P 500 to rise in 2025. Is this the peak of euphoria?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between hard and soft data?

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Emerging Markets: Risky Bet or the Next Big Bargain?

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Compared to developed countries, emerging markets have rarely looked cheaper. With valuations, economic growth, and demographic trends in their favour, is now the time to invest? Or could climate change, protectionism and debt hold them back?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is South Korea an emerging market?

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Kaput: The End of the German Miracle, with Wolfgang Münchau

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Germany is one of few Western countries to remain truly industrialised, boasting a massive manufacturing base and trade surplus. And yet, things have gone off the rails, with the economy contracting and the governing coalition collapsing.

We're joined by Wolfgang Münchau, whose new book argues we are witnessing the end of the German economic miracle.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why don’t Germans invest in the stock market?

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Stoic Investing: Are We Worrying About the Wrong Things?

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Sensationalist headlines often lead to poor investment decisions, causing many investors to fixate on issues that have little impact on long-term returns. So, where should investors really focus their attention?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you invest if you’re very nervous?

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Trump 2.0: Political Risk and Complacent Markets, with Economist Larry Hatheway

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Political risk is one of the most unquantifiable aspects of investing — and one of the most consequential. Shifts in regulation, tax and trade policies can shake economies and upend asset prices.

Our guest today is economist Larry Hatheway, who argues that markets vastly underestimate the dangers of a second Trump presidency.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are trade deficits a problem?

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Maxed Out Markets: Investing When Everything Is Expensive

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 06:00:00 +0100

How should you invest when everything is expensive?

Stock market valuations are stretched, gold is up 40% on a year ago, and bitcoin has hit an all-time high. With some analysts forecasting a ‘lost decade’ for US stocks, is it time to look elsewhere?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett holding so much cash?

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Gilt Yields and Ghosts of Budgets Past: Who's Afraid of Bond Vigilantes?

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Gilt yields rose after the Autumn budget as markets absorbed sharp rises in investment, taxes and borrowing. Does Liz Truss’s mini-budget still haunt UK debt markets? And is there a risk that investors will shun UK debt?

In today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does public investment ‘crowd out’ or ‘crowd in’ private sector activity?

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Chance, Risk, and the Art of Uncertainty, with Sir David Spiegelhalter

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Investing is an uncertain journey, where chance, risk, and luck are constant companions. But can understanding probability help us live with the unknown?

We're joined by Sir David Spiegelhalter, Emeritus Professor of Statistics at the University of Cambridge and author of 'The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk, and Luck'.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: ‘Would you want to know when you will die?’

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Election Economics: Will A Trump Win Upend Markets?

Wed, 23 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

The US Presidential election is less than two weeks away, and the result hangs in the balance. While markets appear calm, a second Trump term could have profound effects on global economies and investments. We discuss how the so-called 'Trump Trade' might impact different assets and sectors.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a strong or weak dollar better?

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Time vs Money: How the Clock Transforms Your Investments

Wed, 16 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Investing, at its core, is about postponing consumption in the belief that time is your friend. Yet time has powerful effects on all aspects of markets, magnifying returns, blunting volatility, and warping the very value of money itself.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why can’t we time the market?

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Bracing for the Budget: Tax Rises, Black Holes & Growth, with Paul Johnson from the IFS

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Despite record tax revenues, Britain's public services are struggling. So what's gone wrong and how do we fix it?

We sit down with Paul Johnson, Director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and author of Follow the Money, to unpick the issues behind Britain's stagnation.

We explore the structural challenges facing the UK economy, strategies to revive growth, and which taxes might rise in the upcoming budget.

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Beijing’s Big Gamble: Stock Markets Soar On China's Stimulus

Wed, 02 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

China’s economic boom has slowed as debt, deflation, and demographics weigh on the economy. Beijing belatedly announced a massive stimulus package, cutting interest rates and funnelling money into the stock market. But will it be enough to turn around the world's second biggest economy?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between fiscal and monetary policy?

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Productivity Crisis: Is Europe A Basket Case?

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Europe has suffered relative decline in recent decades, beset by sluggish economic growth, ageing populations, and stagnant wages. Meanwhile, the success of US Big Tech firms has seen America come to dominate global markets. We dig into a new report from the European Union to see if it offers a way to get Europe growing again.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is “productivity”?

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Smart Ways to Stash Your Cash: Banks, Bonds & Money Market Funds

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Sometimes you need a safe place to stash your cash. Savings accounts, bonds and money market funds are all options but how can you maximise returns? And should you ‘lock in a rate’?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s wrong with Premium Bonds?

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Confronting Uncertainty: Building a Financial Plan in an Uncertain World

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Creating a financial plan for your future requires estimating numerous unknown variables. How fast will your investments grow? How much will inflation erode your savings? Will taxes increase? We discuss the most important risks to consider and how to build a reliable plan in an uncertain world.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will care costs ruin the plan?

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Mean Reversion in Markets: What Goes Up Must Come Down?

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Mean reversion is one of the most powerful forces in financial markets. When returns, valuation or concentration rise to extreme levels, it’s usually only a matter of time before they come back into line with history. We discuss which aspects of markets are subject to mean reversion, and how long we might have to wait.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If you love mean reversion so much, why do you hate technical analysis?

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Boom and Bust: Ranking the Biggest Bubbles in History

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Asset bubbles are an occasional, inevitable, and sometimes devastating feature of financial markets, making and breaking fortunes along the way. But what is the greatest bubble of all time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are markets rational?

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The Default Pension Trap: What to Consider BEFORE You Switch Pension

Wed, 21 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Nine out of ten people are invested in their employer’s default pension strategy. However, a hands-off approach might not suit your personal circumstances, goals, or risk appetite. So, what should you consider before switching your pension?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it worth filling gaps in your National Insurance record?

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Volatility Trading: Making Money from Market Swings

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Volatility comes with the territory when owning risky assets, yet investors still seek ways to hedge against it—or even profit from it. So, how can you capitalise on market turbulence, and is it worth the effort? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the MOVE index?

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Market Mayhem: Flash Crash or Full Blown Crisis?

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Stock markets have been pummelled in recent days — is this is a flash crash or the start of something bigger? And why has fear spread so suddenly?

We look at the potential culprits, including weak economic data, central bank surprises, and sky high valuations. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Should you buy the dip?

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Metal of the Future: Has Copper Come A Cropper?

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Copper is integral to the global economy, and its importance will only increase as the world decarbonises its energy infrastructure. Bulls have long argued that supply will fail to keep up with rising demand, driving copper prices higher. So why have prices slumped in recent months? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is ‘Doctor Copper’?

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Don't Get Burned: Avoid Single Points of Failure in Your Finances

Wed, 24 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

A botched software update hobbled IT systems around the world, grounding planes and taking TV stations off-air. But it’s not just computer systems that can crash and burn from an innocuous mistake — welcome to the ‘single point of failure’. We discuss underappreciated risks that could devastate your personal finances.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any investment completely safe?

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David vs Goliath: Small-Cap Stocks Finally Surge

Wed, 17 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Last week saw a massive shift in markets, with unloved sectors and smaller stocks outperforming the mega-caps by a record amount. Is Big Tech’s dominance drawing to a close? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are small-cap funds forced to sell their winners?

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UK House Prices: Is the Slump Over?

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

After prices peaked two years ago, higher mortgage costs have caused the market to stall. But with rate cuts on the horizon, is normal service about to be resumed? We discuss how the change of government will affect the housing market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does building more houses really lower prices?

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Home Country Bias: Should You Overweight Domestic Stocks?

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Diversification is the only free lunch in investing, yet many investors choose to overweight their domestic stock market. While the UK makes up a mere 4% of global markets, off-the-shelf portfolios often include shockingly large allocations to British firms. We discuss whether home country bias is a problem or if there are good reasons to favour domestic stocks.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are safe-haven currencies?

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Mid-Year Market Update: Are Things As Good As They Seem?

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 06:00:00 +0100

We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock. The AI narrative continues to power the equity bull market. Central banks have started to cut interest rates. And the US Presidential election looms large.

We debate if things are as good as they look and what risks lie ahead for the second half of 2024. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What isn’t priced in?

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Will A Labour Government Be Good For Investors?

Wed, 19 Jun 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Labour is 20 points ahead in the polls and looks set to form the next UK government. But how will their economic, tax and spending plans impact investors? We look at the promises included in Labour’s manifesto and what was left unsaid. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are capital gains taxed at a lower rate than income?

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Interest Rate Cuts: Coming to a Central Bank Near You?

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Central banks in Europe and Canada cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic, lowering borrowing costs and kicking off the easing cycle. Are the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve about to join them? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does it matter if inflation stays above 2%?

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Trade Wars: How Will Tariffs on China Impact Your Investments?

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Should investors fear the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies? US President Joe Biden recently announced a slew of new tariffs on Chinese imports, including a massive 100% charge on electric vehicles. What comes next? And in today's Dumb Question of the Week: Is China uninvestable?

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Building a Multi-Factor Stock Portfolio, with Ed Croft

Wed, 29 May 2024 06:00:00 +0100

The evidence suggests that certain types of stock tend to beat the market in the long run. Patient investors can reap higher returns by tilting towards stocks that are cheap, high-quality or rising in price.

But how easy is it to identify undervalued companies? And what risks are involved in building a DIY portfolio?

This week we speak to Ed Croft, the co-founder of Stockopedia, about multi-factor investing and a quantitative approach to stock selection.

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Bond Battle: Individual Bonds or Bond Funds?

Wed, 22 May 2024 06:00:00 +0100

As interest rates have risen, more and more people are interested in buying bonds. Individual government bonds can be a useful tool to lock in a high rate. But do individual bonds really make more sense than bond funds?

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Building a Bulletproof Retirement Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts

Wed, 15 May 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Designing a retirement portfolio is one of the thorniest problems in investing. The mix of assets you choose dramatically affects how much you can safely spend during retirement. Withdraw too much from your pot, and you risk running out of money.

We’re joined by the creator of Portfolio Charts to examine optimal asset allocation. Tyler has modelled retirement scenarios around the world, identifying portfolios that help you sleep well at night and make the most of your money.

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Earnings Season: Can US Stocks Deliver the Goods?

Wed, 08 May 2024 06:00:00 +0100

With valuations stretched, American stocks need to deliver the goods this earnings season. Companies must grow their profits and defend their margins or risk the end of the S&P 500 bull market. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a ‘blackout period’?

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Payout Puzzle: Does Dividend Investing Make Sense?

Wed, 01 May 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Many investors favour stocks that pay a high dividend, opting to live off the cash they generate. Even stingy US tech companies have started to pay dividends. But does a strategy focussed on income make sense? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is ‘Shareholder Yield’?

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Should you de-risk your portfolio before retirement?

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 06:00:00 +0100

A stock market crash early in retirement can leave you struggling to live off your investments. We discuss de-risking our portfolios and how to manage ‘sequence of returns’ risk. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is a stock market crash good for long-term returns?

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Is The Bank of England Broken?

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 06:00:00 +0100

The Bank of England has been criticised for its failure to foresee high inflation. A damning new report takes aim at the central bank’s forecasting process and urges a major overhaul. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is 'quantitative tightening'?

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How To Invest a Lump Sum in 2024

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Investing a lump sum is a big decision that comes with great responsibility. Should you be conservative with your newfound wealth? Should you pile into markets straight away or drip feed slowly over time? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What does FSCS protection cover?

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Are Investors Rational? Lessons From the Late Daniel Kahneman

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Daniel Kahneman was the pioneer of behavioural economics and won a Nobel Prize for his work on cognitive biases. By explaining how a litany of psychological missteps skew our decisions, few people have had more influence on investing. We discuss how Kahneman improved our investing judgement and taught us to manage risk intelligently. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are stock analysts’ price targets worth anything?

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Bad Apple: The Trustbusters Target Big Tech

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 06:00:00 +0100

US regulators have swung for the fences, accusing Apple of running an illegal smartphone monopoly. But will the legal cases facing big tech firms hurt stock prices?

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Bubble Trouble: Are Investors Right to be Worried?

Wed, 20 Mar 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Stock markets have hit all-time highs in recent weeks, with bitcoin and gold joining the party. Inevitably, people ask, “Is this a bubble?!” And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between investing and speculation?

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Sustainable Investing: The End of ESG?

Wed, 13 Mar 2024 06:00:00 +0100

ESG funds lured investors with the promise of simultaneously saving the planet and achieving higher returns. But after years of inflows, investors are pulling their money. Is there a better approach to sustainable investment? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why are there multiple oil prices?

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9 Things to Do Before the End of the Tax Year

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 06:00:00 +0100

With just one month until the end of the UK tax year, it’s time to review our family finances, make the most of our annual allowances and optimise our investments. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is 'bed and breakfasting’?

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The Rise and Rise of Nvidia: AI Breakthrough or Bubble?

Wed, 28 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Excitement about AI is powering a new bull market. Nvidia smashed earnings expectations, catapulting the company towards a two-trillion dollar valuation and lifting stocks globally.

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UK Recession: Investing During an Economic Downturn

Wed, 21 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

The UK and Japan slipped into recession at the end of 2023, and growth remains weak in Europe and China. While the US economy is booming, much of the world is struggling — does an economic downturn spell disaster for our investments? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between a recession and a depression?

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Schrödinger's Flat: How Big a Problem is Commercial Real Estate?

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Banks stocks have tumbled as losses mount on property loans, forcing them to set aside extra cash and slash dividends. Is the commercial real estate problem contained or is this just the tip of the iceberg? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is negative equity?

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Are UK Stocks Really a Bargain?

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

UK stocks have lagged global markets in recent years. Unloved by investors and underweighted by institutions, is the UK really a bargain hiding in plain sight?

We discuss what’s holding British equities back and if they’re about to turn a corner.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: When a company goes private, are you forced to sell your shares?

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The Best Free Investing Tools

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 06:00:00 +0100

There’s never been more information available to investors, but how do you avoid drowning in data? We’ve gathered our favourite investing tools from across the web to help. And what’s more, they’re free.

Get ready for asset valuation, fund selection, and portfolio modelling made easy.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do backtests really work?

Tools discussed

Fund screening

Market Data

Valuation

Historic returns data

Portfolio backtests

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Weird Portfolios and Wonderful Companies, with Value Stock Geek

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 06:00:00 +0100

The "Weird Portfolio" seeks to sidestep market crashes while still achieving attractive long-term returns. We talk to its creator, Value Stock Geek. We also dig into value investing, and how to find wonderful companies at wonderful prices.

Follow Value Stock Geek at securityanalysis.org

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10 Things They Don't Tell You About Stocks

Wed, 17 Jan 2024 06:00:00 +0100

To succeed at investing, you need to get the big decisions right. But the details matter too. We explore ten under-appreciated aspects of stock markets that, while seemingly trivial, can greatly affect your returns.

We look at everything from index construction to valuation measures to platform fees.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do global index funds use market-cap weighting rather than GDP?

Selected links

Tech Company Dilution: Finding Ground Truth
Stock Market vs. GDP Share, by Country (1900-2022) | Visual Capitalist

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What I learned from talking to 1,000 people about their investments

Wed, 10 Jan 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Since starting PensionCraft, I’ve spoken to more than a thousand people about their finances, helping with their investing goals, strategies, and fears.

We discuss common challenges investors face and how they chart the right course.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is it so hard to talk about money?

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Demographic Shifts: Will Population Ageing Derail Stock Returns?

Wed, 03 Jan 2024 06:00:00 +0100

After a century of rapid population growth, the world is getting older.

But with fewer workers to subsidise healthcare and pensions, some speculate that shifting demographics spell trouble for the economy and our investments.

We debate whether the golden age of stock markets can survive the great Demographic Drag?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How did old people survive before pensions?

Selected links

Ageing Is the Real Population Bomb | IMF
Boomer Retirement: Headwinds for U.S. Equity Markets? | San Francisco Fed

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Soft Landings Are Hard: How Has the US Economy Achieved the Impossible?

Wed, 27 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Despite all the predictions of doom, the American economy has achieved a macro miracle. Inflation has been tamed without the insidious side-effects of higher unemployment or a recession.

But how has the Fed pulled off a soft landing, and can we hope for the same in the UK?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do economists always get it wrong?

Selected links

How did the US achieve a soft landing? - by Noah Smith

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Merry Market Quizmas: Can You Outsmart Ramin?

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

12 tricky questions to test anyone's knowledge about money, markets and investing in 2023. Can you triumph in our Christmas pub quiz?!

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the Santa Rally and is it real?

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Charlie Munger's Wisdom: Profit, Polemics and Peanut Brittle

Wed, 13 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

We celebrate the life of Charlie Munger and look to learn from his wisdom.

Warren Buffett's long-time right-hand man helped build Berkshire Hathaway and was a brilliant investor in his own right. But perhaps he will be best remembered for his willingness to share his wisdom, wit and one-liners.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the “Lollapalooza Effect”?

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The Most Important Number in Investing

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Markets are full of numbers. Big ones. Small ones. Nonsensical ones. But what is the most influential number in investing?

Is it the oil price? Or the interest rate set by the Fed? Or perhaps the strength of the dollar?

We debate seven different rates and prices in attempt to crown The World’s Most Important Number.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does the Fed set its policy rate as a target range?

Selected links

How the Fed Implements Monetary Policy with Its Tools — St Louis Fed
How Does the Fed Influence Interest Rates Using Its New Tools? — St Louis Fed

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How to Fight Investing FOMO

Wed, 29 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The Fear of Missing Out tempts us all. Amid fast-moving markets and 24-hour news, FOMO can be an investor's worst enemy, derailing decision-making and undermining long-term goals. We discuss the strategies that help us stick to the plan. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: When is the right time to sell an investment?

Thanks to Lightyear for sponsoring this episode. Sign up at lightyear.app.link/pensioncraft or use the code PENSIONCRAFT to get a US fractional share worth $10.

Capital at risk. The provider of investment services is Lightyear Financial Ltd for the UK and Lightyear Europe AS for the EU. Terms apply: lightyear.com/terms. Seek qualified advice if necessary.

Yield is provided as of November 27th, 2023. Refer to the instrument’s Key Information Document available on the issuer’s website and Lightyear App before making investment decisions.

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Treasury Doom Loop: The World's Most Dangerous Trade?

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

What do you get if you combine the world’s most important financial market, hedge funds, enormous leverage, and doom loop dynamics? Welcome to the Treasury ‘basis trade'.

We discuss the risks that lurk behind the Treasury market and why regulators are sounding the alarm.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between duration and maturity?

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Passive Power: Do Index Funds Hurt the Economy?

Wed, 15 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Over decades, index funds have delivered superior returns and surged in popularity. But some claim the rise of passive investing has come at the cost of less competitive markets and inflated prices for consumers. We look at the evidence that common stock ownership might harm economic efficiency.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How high would bond yields have to go for you to sell your stocks?

Selected links

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The Magnificent Seven: What if Big Tech Starts to Shrink?

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The “Magnificent Seven” stocks have reigned supreme this year, accounting for almost all of the S&P 500’s returns. But what if these titans of tech begin to stumble? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How long do companies last?

Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios via https://upl.inc/h46sgc

IG is also offering new IG Smart Portfolio accounts 50% off the management fees until November 2024 when you open a new account via this link. That’s a management fee of just 0.25%, capped at £250 per year.

Note that this offer is only open to UK residents, over the age of 18 years old, who meet the eligibility criteria for an IG Smart Portfolio account. The offer only applies to new IG Smart Portfolio accounts opened via the above link on or before 30 November 2024 (and will not apply to existing IG Smart Portfolio accounts or to any other product or service offered by IG). This offer begins on 1 November 2023 and ends on 30 November 2024. Please contact IG at helpdesk.uk@ig.com for any assistance.

Please be aware that investing puts your capital at risk.

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Are UK Investment Trusts A Bargain?

Wed, 01 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Ever feel like investing in something unusual? From unlisted shares to commercial property to infrastructure, Investment Trusts could be your answer. Performance has waned of late, and many are available at chunky discounts. Is now the time to buy in? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a “Long Term Asset Fund”?

Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios via https://upl.inc/h46sgc

Please be aware that investing puts your capital at risk.

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Is Buy-to-Let Investing Dead?

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Regulatory changes and rising interest rates have squeezed rental yields, leaving investors to wonder: Is the buy-to-let dream over? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does real estate outperform the stock market over the long-term?

Thanks to IG for sponsoring this episode. Find out more about IG Smart Portfolios via https://upl.inc/h46sgc

Selected links

Monthly Lettings Index (Hamptons)
Mortgaged landlords face falling profits and refinancing hurdles (FT)
Why Britain’s buy-to-let dream is dying (The Telegraph)
The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015

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Are Government Bonds Really Risk-Free?

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Government bonds are considered the world's safest asset, setting the "risk-free rate" against which all other investments are judged. But with rising national debts and dwindling credit ratings, are they really above question?

We discuss the implications for investors if government bonds are actually at risk of default.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why choose bonds over simply holding cash?

Selected links

Aswath Damodaran Twitter thread
In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments! (Aswath Damodaran)
The Bond Bear Market & Asset Allocation (A Wealth of Common Sense)

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The King of Passive Investing: No Longer at the Vanguard?

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Is Vanguard still the king of passive investing?

Vanguard pioneered passive index funds, driving down fees and maximising returns for ordinary investors. But with the rise of innovative new brokers in the UK, has Vanguard lost its mojo?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is one fund really enough?

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Small caps are cheap. Why do they keep getting cheaper!?

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Smaller companies look much better value than the giants of the S&P 500. Yet despite attractive prices, small cap indices continue to get cheaper, further widening the gap. Is bigger really better?

We look at what's holding small caps back and if they are about to gain momentum.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How big can one company grow?

Selected links

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Has the Bank of England Bottled It?

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Last week, an unexpected cooling of inflation allowed the Bank of England to leave interest rates unchanged.

But with CPI still running more than three times above its target, has the Bank wimped out before the battle is won?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Instead of hiking interest rates to fight inflation, why doesn't the government simply urge people to spend less?

Selected links

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Macro Mysteries: The Shocking Revision to UK GDP

Wed, 20 Sep 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) published revised GDP figures, upending the post-pandemic economic narrative.

It turns out that Britain’s economy recovered much quicker than previously thought and is no longer an international outlier. So how did the ONS find a load of economic output down the back of the sofa?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What could we measure instead of GDP?

Selected links

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Advice to My Younger Self: What I Wish I'd Known About Investing

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 06:00:00 +0100

You don’t get to invest with the benefit of hindsight. Mistakes are made, and you have to live with them. But it begs the question: if you could travel back in time, what investing advice would you give your 21-year-old self?

Would you champion index funds? Warn about risk? Or maybe suggest just getting started?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Am I rich?

Selected links

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BRICS: Bigger Is Better?

Wed, 30 Aug 2023 06:00:00 +0100

In the early 2000s, the BRICS nations were the pick of emerging markets: vast, rapidly growing economies that promised stellar long-term returns. But it hasn’t played out like that. At least, not yet.

Just last week, BRICS expanded its fold with six new members. But does the alliance actually make a difference?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are frontier markets?

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Tales from the Trading Floor: The Truth About Investment Banks

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 06:00:00 +0100

During my 15 years in investment banking, I witnessed the brilliance of analysts, the buzz of the trading floor, and the chaos of the financial crisis. Today, we draw back the curtain on the world of high finance.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are “systemically important banks”?

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Is Value Investing Dead?

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 06:00:00 +0100

For the best part of a century, buying cheap stocks was a reliable way to beat the market. But since the financial crisis, value investing has significantly underperformed. Even Warren Buffett — its most famous advocate — has lagged the market.

So is value investing dead? Or is it just sleeping?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is book value?

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The Upside of Down Earnings: Plummeting Profits and Soaring Stocks

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Stock markets go up because companies grow their earnings over the long term. But this year, the S&P 500 is rallying despite stocks reporting their third straight quarter of falling profits. Has the market just not noticed?

We discuss whether an earnings recession should worry us and if it’s about to turn around.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are share buybacks equivalent to dividends?

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Is the China Growth Story Over?

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 06:00:00 +0100

For decades, China has been the engine of global growth, doubling its GDP every eight years. But now it faces weak demand, slowing productivity and an ageing population.

We debate if China can beat the “middle-income trap” and what it means for investors.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is China’s currency called the Yuan or the Renminbi?

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Structured Products: An Expensive Free Lunch?

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0100

What if you could invest in the stock market but not risk losing money? Yes, yes, your alarm bells should be ringing! But that's exactly what some new funds claim to offer.

We take a hard look at structured products and buffer ETFs and ask if they really make sense for investors.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is Monte Carlo Simulation?

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How To Stress Test Your Portfolio

Wed, 19 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0100

How would your portfolio cope with a severe economic shock?

We’ve picked out five different scenarios to stress test our finances, including recessions, depressions, and sky-high inflation. But how should we think about tail-risks, and what we can do to prepare?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why haven’t wealth preservation funds preserved wealth this year?

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Politics vs Economics: What Politicians Misunderstand About Markets

Wed, 12 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Politicians are tasked with steering the economy and spreading prosperity. But, shockingly, not all of their claims about money and markets stack up. We discuss common misconceptions in politics and the political truisms that mislead us about investing.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is insider trading?

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How To Live Off Your Investments In Retirement

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0100

How can we maintain our quality of life in retirement without exhausting our funds?

We don’t know how long we will live, and the unpredictability of inflation and market crashes combine to make retirement planning one of the most intricate puzzles in investing.

We discuss how to manage the risks and what strategies can help us enjoy our golden years.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it best to just live off the dividends?

Selected links

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Mid-Year Market Review: Time To Get Off The Bull?

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 06:00:00 +0100

We’re halfway through the year, and it’s time to take stock.

Central banks are approaching the end of the hiking cycle. The S&P 500 has entered a new bull market. And bonds are paying more than 5%. We discuss where the investing opportunities might lie and what risks lurk for the rest of 2023.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is the 60/40 portfolio dead?

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How High Will Interest Rates Go?

Tue, 20 Jun 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The UK has the highest inflation of any major economy, and markets expect the Bank of England to keep hiking interest rates in response.

But how high could rates go? Will mortgages become unaffordable?

We discuss the chances of a recession and whether house prices could crash.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do central banks raise interest rates incrementally rather than in one big jump?

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The War on Crypto

Wed, 14 Jun 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The US Securities and Exchange Commission charged Binance and Coinbase with operating illegal securities exchanges. These are the two biggest names in crypto, accounting for more than half of global trading.

Does this mark the beginning of the end of the wild west era of crypto?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What exactly is a security?

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Markets Are Quiet. Too Quiet.

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Markets are eerily calm. Stock volatility is low, and the Vix fear gauge has plunged to pre-pandemic levels. But is this the quiet before the storm?

With the US debt ceiling now resolved, some fear that replenishing the Treasury’s coffers could rattle the serenity of markets. Others fret about heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. So are markets too complacent?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How do minimum volatility funds work? And do they work?

Selected links

Certainly Uncertain - AQR Capital Management

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How Late Is Too Late To Get Started Investing?

Wed, 31 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

When it comes to investing, time is your friend. If you get started early, compound returns do a lot of the heavy lifting for you!

But what if you didn’t put money into the market when you were young… what if you start investing later in life? We discuss ways to reach our goals and the compromises we might have to make.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are target-date retirement funds a good option?

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Japanese Stocks Surge: Is It Time To Buy?

Wed, 24 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Japanese stocks have hit their highest level in 33 years. With markets closing in on record highs seen in the 1980s, are Japanese stocks finally about to escape the shadow of the bubble?

We dig into what’s behind the rally and if it has further to run.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a value trap?

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What Will Cause The Next Market Crash?

Wed, 17 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Investing is said to involve climbing a wall of worry… so where will the next crisis come from? A good place to look for clues is the Fed’s twice-yearly Financial Stability Report.

The latest report highlights risks at banks, money-market funds and commercial real estate, but will they really cause the next crash?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Surely low liquidity just means the price is too high?

Selected links

Financial Stability Report, May 2023

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Stock Market Rally: Fundamentals vs FOMO

Wed, 10 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The stock market has been on a tear, with the S&P 500 up more than 15% since its October lows.

But is the rally supported by the fundamentals? Or is it about to go into reverse?

Do company earnings and valuations justify the buoyant market? Or is it driven by hype around artificial intelligence?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has TINA turned into TARA?

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Has inflation finally peaked?

Wed, 03 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Inflation has started to subside but remains worryingly high across the world.

Will central banks need to raise rates higher still? Will inflation fall back to its 2% target without a recession? And will the Bank of England stop saying mad stuff?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Will high prices be with us forever? When inflation falls, prices don’t fall, do they?

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Active Stock Picking Is Getting Harder

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Some people claim that active managers can capitalise on market crashes to beat the benchmark. But do they really save us from being savaged by bears?

The analysts at S&P Dow Jones have been hard at work on their updated Index vs Active scorecard, and the numbers for 2022 are hot off the press.

The latest data reveals that UK active funds experienced their worst underperformance on record. We dig into the report to find out why.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does passive investing work for Emerging Markets?

Selected links

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Rain or Shine: Building an All Weather Portfolio

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 06:00:00 +0100

An all-weather portfolio aims to deliver steady growth while minimising risk. Pioneered by Ray Dalio, the strategy emphasises diversification across asset classes to keep on chugging, through rain or shine.

We discuss how to construct a portfolio for all seasons, and whether it lives up to its promise.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: How does a tail-risk fund work?

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Stunted Growth: Scottish Mortgage vs ARK

Wed, 05 Apr 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Growth stocks have been on a rollercoaster ride — soaring during the pandemic, only to plunge as interest rates climbed.

We consider two prime examples of the growth stock phenomenon: Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust and Cathie Wood's ARKK.

We dig into the funds' investment philosophies, faltering performance, and whether they are set for a resurgence.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between a closed and open-ended fund?

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Contagion: Chain Reactions and the CoCo Powder Keg

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Contagion can be rapid, unpredictable and destabilising.

When a financial institution gets into trouble, it can cause a chain reaction, punishing investors, banks and even countries.

We discuss what factors cause these crises to spread and what we should do about it as investors.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a CoCo, and are they about to pop?

Selected links

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Silicon Valley Bank collapse: The Fallout and the Bailout

Mon, 13 Mar 2023 15:30:00 +0100

On Friday last week, Silicon Valley Bank—the 16th biggest bank in the United States—succumbed to a bank run and was declared insolvent. With markets gripped by fear, the US authorities stepped in on Sunday night to guarantee customer deposits and backstop the financial system.

But why did SVB collapse? What happens next? And what are the risks to the broader financial system?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the difference between a bail-out and a bail-in?

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Dry Powder: Where to Park Your Cash

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0100

After more than a decade of near zero interest rates, it is now possible to earn some income from cash and short-term investments.

But where should you park your cash? There are many options from bank accounts to money market funds to bonds. Each come with their own benefits, risks and quirks.

But why we would even hold cash? And what makes 2023 a potentially lucrative environment for short-term investments?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a bank?

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Raging Bullion: Is Gold a Good Investment?

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Forged in the final moments of exploding neutron stars, gold has the best origin story of any asset.

To some, gold’s scarcity and history make it the only real form of money. To others, it's just a shiny rock.

It's claimed to be an inflation hedge, a trusted store of value, and the asset to own when all else fails. But does gold have a role to play in our portfolios?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why did we abandon the gold standard?

Selected links

Three Secret Ingredients of the Most Efficient Portfolios (Portfolio Charts)
Golden Butterfly Portfolio vs Pinwheel Portfolio (PensionCraft - YouTube)

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Seven Ways to Slice the Stock Market

Wed, 22 Feb 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Does growth beat value? Does equal weighting outperform? Will the US always be the leading market?

Over the last 100 years, simply buying and holding the stock market would have made you rich. But that doesn’t stop people searching for ways to juice their returns.

This week we discuss seven ways to slice the stock market. From sectors to factors to weightings, we look at different ways to tilt your portfolio.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is Apple really an American company?

Selected links

Concentration within Sectors and Its Implications for Equal Weighting (S&P Dow Jones Indices)
Factor Indices: A Simple Compendium (S&P Dow Jones Indices)

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Love Contractually: How to Invest as a Couple

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 06:00:00 +0100

One in five couples identify money as their greatest relationship challenge. And when it comes to investing, 40% of couples disagree on how much risk to take.

So how should we grow wealth with our partners? And what strategies can help minimise disagreements along the way?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: On divorce, would you rather have the pension or the property?

Selected links

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How to Make Better Investing Decisions

Wed, 08 Feb 2023 06:00:00 +0100

To be better investors, we need to make better decisions.

With a few simple steps, we can structure our thinking and improve our investments.

We all struggle with bias and unstructured thinking. But there are systems we can use that nudge us into making higher-quality decisions.

We discuss framing decisions to align with investing goals, overcoming analysis paralysis, and the 37 Percent Rule.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why save for retirement?

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Broken Records: Why are music catalogues so valuable?

Wed, 01 Feb 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Justin Bieber sold his back catalogue for $200m. This follows eye-watering sales for megastars like Bob Dylan, Bruce Springsteen and Tina Turner.

But why are music rights now the hottest asset on the planet?

We discuss how the music industry has turned itself around, the risks of owning song rights, and whether royalties deserve a place in our portfolio.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is securitization?

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Smart Money: If you don't know who the patsy is, you're the patsy

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Institutional investors, hedge funds, and professional managers dominate financial markets. Collectively, they make up 90% of trading and are sometimes called ‘smart money’.

But are they really that smart? Do they know something we don’t?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a hedge fund?

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Defaulty Towers: How dangerous is the US Debt Ceiling?

Wed, 18 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

The United States is again toying with defaulting on its national debt.

If the $31 trillion debt ceiling were breached without the limit being raised, it’s fair to say all hell would break loose.

But how likely is a default? And what would happen to markets if the US really jumped off the cliff?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Who is the national debt owed to anyway?

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Surreal Estate: How far will house prices fall?

Wed, 11 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Global property is worth more than all the stocks and bonds in the world combined. It is a colossal asset class and the primary source of most people’s wealth.

After a remarkable run-up during the pandemic, house prices have now started to drop.

But how far could they fall? And what effect could it have on the economy?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is your house an investment?

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Tesla: What goes up Musk come down

Wed, 04 Jan 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Tesla's stock price fell almost 70% in 2022 and was among the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500.

To some, Tesla is the poster child for innovation, set to dominate the global automotive industry for years. But to others, it’s the most egregious example of hype and bravado to emerge from the era of free money.

Was last year just a bump in the road, or has Tesla hit the skids? And how has Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter and assorted antics hurt Tesla?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is an activist shareholder?

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Ready for a portfolio shakeup? What to consider before making a move

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

So you’ve decided it’s time to overhaul your investment portfolio. Out with the old assets and in with the new.

But hold on, before you press the sell button, there’s a lot to consider. Have you modelled your new portfolio? Have you found the cheapest funds? Have you thought about taxes?

Today we discuss how to plan a big portfolio move and stick with it when things get tough.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does it matter if I choose an ETF or an index fund?

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2022 Merry Market Recap: Claus for concern

Wed, 21 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

A festive round-up of the major investing stories of 2022. We consider the trends that moved the market and ask which will continue into the next year.

If you've ever wanted to hear ‘The Twelve Days of Christmas’ adapted for investors, today is your lucky day!

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Did the wise men construct a good portfolio for Jesus?

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Don't be fooled by 'Dreamwashing'

Wed, 07 Dec 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The investment world is full of attempts to milk us for fees and capital. But how is it done? Simply take a humdrum product, dress it up in exciting clothes, and sell the dream.

Is your active fund secretly tracking an index? Is your favourite meme stock hiding faltering performance with gimmicks? Who’s actually paying for that champagne lunch with your financial advisor?

Today, we coin a new term for this phenomenon: Dreamwashing.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do you need a financial advisor?

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Tricks of the trade-off: How to balance priorities in investing

Wed, 30 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Investment decisions always involve trade-offs. Spend vs save. Risk vs return.

There's no way around them, no matter how many times you rejig your spreadsheet.

We look at five trade-offs every investor has to face:

Spend vs save
Risk vs return
Ethics vs diversification
Reliability vs excitement
Liquidity vs lifestyle choices

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is it better to overpay your mortgage or invest?

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The Stock Market World Cup

Wed, 23 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Which countries will deliver world-beating returns to shareholders over the next four years? That’s the question we ask in today's unofficial and unscientific Stock Market World Cup.

We have four closely fought international matchups to decide:

UK vs France
Germany vs China
USA vs Japan
India vs Brazil

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do index funds not perfectly track the performance an index?

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The worst week in crypto history... so far.

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Last week saw FTX implode in a storm of allegations that culminated in bankruptcy.

The failure of the second-largest exchange and standard-bearer for the industry has left everyone asking: what next for crypto investors?

The fallout is ongoing, with customers nursing heavy losses, investigators circling and the industry teetering.

We delve into what caused the collapse and ask if it could bring down more crypto institutions. Could it even spread to the wider financial system?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a bank run?

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The Long Covid Economy: Will the pandemic permanently change our society and investments?

Wed, 09 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The pandemic delivered a massive simultaneous shock to the world economy. But which changes will outlast the pandemic, and should they cause us to rethink our investments?

Alongside six million deaths and the largest peacetime fall in GDP since the Great Depression, Covid upended our way of life and put novel technologies centre stage.

Pandemics throughout history have caused lasting economic changes and influenced societal norms. But what will the legacy of Covid be for the global economy, standards of living and investment returns?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What’s the difference between a Black Swan and a Grey Rhino?

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Banana skin in the game: How to learn from your investing mistakes

Wed, 02 Nov 2022 06:00:00 +0100

It is often said that failure is a better teacher than success. This week we discuss how to live with and learn from your investing mistakes.

Spotting errors is not as easy as it might sound, even with the benefit of hindsight. But there are strategies we can employ to stop them from derailing our investing goals.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why is Warren Buffett’s investment company called Berkshire Hathaway?

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Trick or Treat: Which assets will rise from the dead?

Wed, 26 Oct 2022 06:00:00 +0100

2022 has been a horror show in markets. A nightmare on Wall Street. But every crisis presents opportunities for investors.

This week we look at six different assets and consider if they may be about to rise from the grave.

US small-cap stocks
Chinese equity
TIPS
Commodities
Ethereum
Annuities

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What are zombie companies and will they ever die?

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Gilt Trip: Did UK government bonds almost blow up the financial system?

Wed, 19 Oct 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The gilt market was the last place anyone expected systemic risk to almost blow up the UK pensions industry, force the Bank of England into emergency bond purchases, cause the chancellor to be sacked, and make the government reverse its flagship economic policy.

But are we now out of the woods? And what other markets are vulnerable to sharply rising bond yields and similar ‘doom-loop’ dynamics?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is a haircut?

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Rate accompli: Are rising interest rates bad for all assets?

Wed, 12 Oct 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Interest rates are rising at breakneck speed and the impact on the value of assets is profound.

We look at how stocks, bonds, gold and property respond to climbing rates. And consider whether any assets might actually benefit from rising rates?

We dig into why interest rates are so influential for asset prices. So if you're a fan of cost of capital, discounted cashflows and duration effects, this is the episode for you!

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is an Interest Rate Swap?

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The Ten Commandments of Investing

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Everyone loves a list: Buzzfeed, Santa, even God himself. But if you had to list the ten most important investing principles, what would you choose?

These are our guidelines for how to sustainably grow your wealth while enjoying the journey and avoiding catastrophic loss.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is asset correlation and why does it matter?

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Mini budget. Major problems.

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 06:00:00 +0100

On Friday, the UK chancellor unveiled his ‘mini-budget’ with the most significant tax cuts in 50 years.

The market reaction was swift and brutal. Sterling crashed to a record low versus the dollar, and UK borrowing costs spiked.

We ask why the market reacted so negatively and what it means for those of us who own UK assets.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why not invest everything in the US stock market?

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The Bond King, with Mary Childs

Fri, 16 Sep 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Mary Childs (financial journalist and co-host of NPR's Planet Money) joins us to discuss her recent book The Bond King: How One Man Made a Market, Built an Empire, and Lost It All.

This is the story of Bill Gross, the legendary investor and fund manager who revolutionised the bond market.

Before Bill Gross, bonds were the sleepy backbone of retirement accounts, paying the holders a steady stream of coupons each year. But Gross upended all that.

After co-founding investment giant Pimco in the 1970s, Gross pioneered active bond trading: buying, selling and exploiting any advantage to eke out extra returns for investors.

But Pimco was riven by internal political battles and a toxic culture. It all came to a head in 2014. With the performance of the fund now lacklustre, Gross’s behaviour became increasingly erratic and internal conflict led to the resignation of CEO Mohamed El-Erian.

Bill Gross left Pimco later that year in an acrimonious departure that rocked the financial world.

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How bad will the recession be?

Wed, 14 Sep 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Many forecasters think that recession is imminent in the UK and Europe, with the US not far behind.

But how deep will the downturn be? How long will it last? And will the economy emerge stronger on the other side?

We discuss how this recession could compare to ones in the past and which assets might best weather the storm.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why does economic growth matter and is it unsustainable?

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Will artificial intelligence transform investing?

Wed, 07 Sep 2022 06:00:00 +0100

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get the free months of NOA premium.

Some claim that artificial intelligence will trigger the fourth industrial revolution, upending traditional ways of living and doing business. This week we look at how an AI and big data arms race might change the world of investing.

We discuss the implications for markets and returns and the effect AI could have on our investment decisions and portfolios.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why is it so hard to beat the market?

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Is it dumb to invest in IPOs?

Wed, 31 Aug 2022 06:00:00 +0100

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium.

2021 was a record year for initial public offerings. More than 3,000 companies listed on global stock markets and raised over $600 billion in the process.

Companies such as Coinbase, Roblox and Rivian each pulled in more than 10 billion dollars. Exciting times!

But since going public, many companies have seen their stock price plunge, leaving investors to wonder: Are IPOs a good investment?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Am I missing out by not investing in private companies?

Selected links

What Happens to IPOs Over the Long Run? (Nasdaq)
Which, Why, and for How Long do IPOs Underperform (ResearchGate)

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Investing in China: Year of the Bear?

Wed, 24 Aug 2022 06:00:00 +0100

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium.

Few topics divide opinion more than investing in China. The incredible growth. The ethical dilemmas. The disappointing returns.

This week we look at the big economic and political developments in China and whether now is the time to buy Chinese equity.

What opportunities and risks confront investors? And how should we think about Chinese stocks in the context of our portfolios?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What happens if Chinese stocks are delisted from the New York Stock Exchange?

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Currency fluctuations: Take the hedge off?

Wed, 17 Aug 2022 06:00:00 +0100

This episode is sponsored by NOA: Click here to get a free month of NOA premium.

This year has seen remarkable shifts in currency markets, with the US Dollar reaching a 20 year high and parity with the Euro.

We discuss the factors that drive exchange rates and the implications of a strong US dollar on trade, growth and our investments.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Should you currency hedge your investments?

Selected links

Dollar Doom Loop video (PensionCraft)
Bretton Woods III video (PensionCraft)
The Stealth Erosion of Dollar Dominance (IMF)
How to diagnose your own Dutch disease (FT - paywall)

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Is inflation rigged?

Wed, 10 Aug 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The cost of living always attracts controversy, even before the current surge in prices.

Many people believe that the true rate of inflation is consistently far higher than the official stats suggest. But is there any evidence to back up these claims?

We discuss the nuances of how inflation is calculated and whether the changes made in the 1980s and 1990s have lowered official inflation numbers, as claimed by websites such as ShadowStats. And what impact does it have on investors?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why does the Fed look at Core PCE inflation rather than CPI? Doesn’t it care about food and energy prices?

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Baby Buffett: How to invest for children

Wed, 03 Aug 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Kids are sometimes hard-work, often fun, and always expensive. But due to the magic of compounding, a small amount of money invested when they are young can grow into a substantial nest egg for later in life.

We discuss how much to set aside, what to put in their portfolio, and how to keep them from blowing the cash as soon as they turn 18.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Is government debt effectively stealing from future generations?

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Pessimists sound smart. Optimists make money.

Wed, 27 Jul 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Does it pay to be an optimist?

Volatile financial markets and flaws in human psychology can cause many investors to be unduly pessimistic.

Yet, remaining an optimist - and remaining invested - is the surest way to achieve the unrivalled long-term returns of the stock market.

Today, we discuss why optimism about investing is not only desirable but rational. And how to spot biases and alarmist thinking that can lead to destructive behaviour.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why hold any bonds at all?

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The Weirdest ETFs: Moats, Goats and YOLO

Wed, 20 Jul 2022 06:00:00 +0100

VICE. UFO. COW. Welcome to the weird world of niche ETFs.

Exchange Traded Funds are an easy way for investors to buy into a basket of stocks. The last few years has seen a proliferation of ETFs that offer investors different indices, themes, and strategies.

We discuss which of these funds is worth our time, in what environments they might outperform, and how best to incorporate them in our portfolio.

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What’s the difference between ETFs and ETNs?

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The Big Shortage: What happens if Russia turns off the gas?

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Natural gas is critical to the functioning of the European economy, used in everything from heating homes to powering industry.

Russia is the continent's biggest gas supplier, and many analysts fear that President Putin might be about to turn off the gas taps. The impact of such a move could be profound, with the German Economy Minister warning of the potential for a “Lehman Brothers” moment.

We look at how likely it is to happen, what the fallout could be, and what could it mean for our investments?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What is a black swan event?

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Leverage: No margin for error

Wed, 06 Jul 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Leverage is borrowing money to invest. It can boost your returns in good times and amplify your losses when the market turns against you.

This week we look at the different types of leveraged investments and how to employ them. We discuss the pros and cons of investing with margin loans, leveraged ETFs, and options. And the surprising evidence for using leverage to reduce retirement risk...

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: "If your broker sells your stocks in a margin call, can you be left owing more money than you invested?"

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Government bonds just got interesting

Wed, 29 Jun 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Government bonds are considered the steady - perhaps even boring - investment class. But this year has seen the biggest bond crash in a generation, as inflation runs wild and central banks pretend not to panic.

As if things weren’t interesting enough, the European Central Bank is concocting a new wheeze to keep bond spreads in check, the Bank of Japan is printing record-breaking amounts of money, and Russia has defaulted on its debt.

We try to make sense of all this and wonder whether now might be the time to buy government bonds? And if so, which ones?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why don't governments issue perpetual bonds?

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Market timing: Signs of the top and bottom

Wed, 22 Jun 2022 06:00:00 +0100

This year the S&P 500 has fallen over 23%. With the benefit of hindsight, what were the clues that we had reached the top at the start of 2022?

And what could indicate the market has now reached a bottom and is about to resume its upward drift?

Accepted wisdom says that what matters is “time in the market, not timing the market.” Is this always true? And how does it affect how we invest?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "When stock prices fall, where does the money go?"

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UK Stocks: No tech please, we're British

Wed, 15 Jun 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The UK stock market has lagged global indices over the past decade and struggled to attract new companies. We look at the reasons for the underperformance and the prospects for the future.

We discuss the sector composition of the UK market, with its crucial underweight in technology companies, as well as whether the dividend investing culture at many UK equity funds holds back business investment and growth.

And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "How can a stock be listed on two exchanges and does it matter which one I buy?"

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This is the new oil... honest.

Wed, 08 Jun 2022 06:00:00 +0100

For decades, oil has held a critical and unique place in the global economy. Many commodities are claimed to be “the new oil” for their importance in the modern world.

But are these claims mere soundbites or do they indicate the emergence of new strategic commodities?

We discuss the prospects for claims ranging from tech innovations like data and artificial intelligence to natural resources like copper and gas. For each, we ask are these really going to be the "new oil?" And if so, how can we best position ourselves as investors?

And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week, we look at “How did the price of oil go negative in 2020?”

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What is risk?

Wed, 01 Jun 2022 06:00:00 +0100

There are many different risks we have to navigate as investors, from the volatility of markets to collapsing companies to our own behaviour. How we choose to respond to these risks is ultimately what will determine our success in building and preserving our wealth.

This week we dig into the different types of investment risk, how best to measure and quantify them, and what strategies we can employ to protect our portfolios.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask "What happens if my broker goes bankrupt?"

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How earnings season moves stock markets

Wed, 25 May 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The S&P 500 has fallen to the brink of a bear market, with companies severely punished for missing their earnings forecasts. The price-to-earnings multiple has declined and market prospects look uncertain.

The question everyone is asking is ‘what comes next?'

We look into whether the S&P 500 is now at fair value? What events could trigger a stock market crash? And whether bonds will successfully hedge equity going forward?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why do people still reference the Dow Jones industrial average?

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Stablecoin collapse: The horse has bolted

Wed, 18 May 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Stablecoins are a core part of the financial plumbing when it comes to cryptocurrency and digital assets. They promise that if you put a dollar in, you will always be able to get a dollar out.

But last week saw Terra, one of the largest stablecoins, lose its peg to the dollar and collapse. Investors are estimated to have lost over $40 billion in value. Ouch.

We dig into what happened, what might be the consequences for markets and whether stablecoins present a systemic risk to the economy.

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What exactly is a Ponzi scheme?

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Stock Market Myths

Wed, 11 May 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Myth-busting popular sayings, cliches and folk wisdom about the stock market and investing.

We discuss "sell in May and go away", dividend investing, and "buy the dip." Ramin also let's loose on Technical Analysis and the dependability of vomiting camels.

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Are credit ratings useless?

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Warren Buffett: Is the magic back?

Wed, 04 May 2022 06:00:00 +0100

The Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting is often referred to as the Woodstock of Capitalism, where legendary investors Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger opine on the state of markets and investing. The 2022 meeting took place this weekend, with as many interesting nuggets of wisdom and controversy as ever.

We discuss Berkshire ramping up their stock purchases and running down their cash pile, the companies they've bought into, and Buffett's opinions on everything from inflation to bitcoin.

And we answer the Dumb Question of the Week: How accurate is the forward Price-to-Earnings ratio, given it relies on analyst forecasts?

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Should you hedge your investments against inflation?

Wed, 27 Apr 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Many different assets are touted as potential inflation hedges but which ones actually work?

People often make the case for inflation-linked bonds, gold, commodities... but how do we know how each asset class will respond in a period of high inflation?

When does it make sense for us to hedge? What risks are involved and what impact does it have on our long-term investment returns?

In today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What does it mean to say the Fed is behind the curve?

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Emerging Markets: Is it time to invest?

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Emerging Markets promised investors better returns and broader diversification. But growth has stalled in recent years, with heightened volatility and uncertainty.

This week we look at what risks and opportunities are involved with investing in Emerging Markets and what role they should play in our portfolio.

We discuss the unique position of China, the impact of tighter Fed monetary policy on developing countries, and the distinction between Emerging and Frontier markets.

And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: How do ETFs actually work?

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Could house prices crash?

Wed, 13 Apr 2022 06:00:00 +0100

House prices in the UK are up by 10% year on year, with similar rises in much of the western world. What has caused this runaway growth in prices? And what could cause it to reverse?

We look to interest rates, supply constraints, government policy and wage growth for the answer. Could the market be in for a fall or is it poised just to keep on rising?

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why does infinite money printing not inevitably lead to high inflation?

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How much is enough?

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 06:00:00 +0100

How much money do you need to invest to live the life you want? How much can you safely withdraw from a portfolio each year? And how do you ensure you don't run out of money in retirement?

What really makes us happy? What role does money play in our happiness and how do we approach investing for our future?

And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Does passive investing distort markets?

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Meme Reversion

Wed, 30 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Meme stocks are on the rise again, with GameStop and AMC leading the charge again over the past week.

We look back at the crazy month of January 2021 to understand what caused meme stocks to gain over 2,000%, before falling back just as sharply. How did the short squeeze on hedge funds work? What effect did Wall Street Bets and social media have? And what does the future hold for these stocks?

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask what it means to say something is "priced in" to markets.

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In the Toilet: Macroeconomic indicators

Wed, 23 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Which macroeconomic indicators should we look at to understand where markets are heading?

How important are labour market indicators such as nonfarm payrolls, initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate? And what impact do housing and credit market indicators - such as the senior loan officers survey - have on markets?

How do these different data points influence federal reserve policy and the wider economy?

In this week's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Does global equity always rise in the long term? And if so, why?

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Bear in Mind: Cognitive bias in investing

Wed, 16 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Cognitive biases can impair investment decisions and cause us to make costly mistakes. We discuss the different biases, how to mitigate their impact, and even how to profit from bias in the market.

We discuss loss aversion, the endowment effect, anchoring bias, the bandwagon effect, survivorship bias, and confirmation bias.

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: When should you cut your losses on an investment that keeps falling?

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Russian for the Exits

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0100

How will sanctions on Russia affect markets?

Western governments have imposed unprecedented economic sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. Central bank reserves have been frozen. Banks have been cut out of the SWIFT payment network. And Russian stocks have been shorn from equity indices.

We look at what impact these moves will have on markets and how investors might respond. Is inflation going to keep rising? Might there be hidden systemic risks lurking? And might markets fall further?

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask why central banks target an inflation rate of 2%?

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Satellite Navigation: Portfolio part 2

Wed, 02 Mar 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Should you add satellite investments to your core investment portfolio?

To prevent meddling with the core investment portfolio, many investors set aside a small amount of money to invest in risky satellite investments.

Ramin talks us through some of the assets he has on his 'Market Crash Shopping List' and when he might consider adding them to his portfolio.

We look at actively managed investment trusts, leveraged funds, Chinese stocks, high-yield credit, REITs, cryptocurrency and more.

In today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: What does it mean to say cryptocurrency is "unregulated"?

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Core Strength: Portfolio part 1

Wed, 23 Feb 2022 06:00:00 +0100

A popular approach to investing is to construct a core portfolio of long-term investments. But what investments should go into this core?

We consider the case for stocks, bonds, cash and gold, and how they complement each other.

We also discuss what to look for in an index fund, when to rebalance and what risks are involved in long-term investing.

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Who actually decides what companies are included in the S&P 500 index?

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It's not ESG being green

Wed, 16 Feb 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Can ESG funds save the planet while delivering strong investment returns?

ESG funds claim to be able to keep the environment - and your conscience - clean. And all while delivering better returns than the broad market.

We dig into how ESG indexes are constructed, what returns we can expect, and whether the environmental claims actually stack up. We also consider alternative investments which might be better placed to achieve the same goals.

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Why would anyone buy bonds with a negative yield? Aren't you guaranteed to lose money?

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Tech Shares on the Titanic

Wed, 09 Feb 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Big Tech companies have had a wild earnings season.

Meta - the parent company of Facebook - suffered the largest-ever one-day loss in market value for a US company. The very next day, Amazon notched the largest-ever one-day gain in history.

What is going on to cause such dramatic price moves? And what does the future hold for companies such as Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Tesla and Microsoft?

In the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask why companies care about their stock price? And how does the company benefit from a higher price?

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Factor Fiction?

Wed, 02 Feb 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Ramin and Michael look at whether investing in factors such as value, momentum or quality can boost returns.

Which stocks do these funds buy? What are the risks? And how might we incorporate them in our portfolios?

And in the Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Do CEO's deserve their high pay and does it lead to better performance?

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Bubble or Nothing?

Wed, 26 Jan 2022 06:00:00 +0100

Are we in an asset bubble?

Stocks, property and many other investments look expensive at the moment. Ramin guides us through different ways of looking at valuations to see just how expensive.

If we are in a bubble, what could cause it to pop? And how can we protect ourselves as investors?

And in today's Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Is China communist or capitalist?

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Buffeted by Inflation

Wed, 19 Jan 2022 06:00:00 +0100

In the first ever episode of Many Happy Returns, Ramin and Michael discuss the current surge in inflation. How bad is it? How long will it last? And how might it affect our stock, bond and gold investments?

In our regular Dumb Question of the Week, we ask: Is legendary stockpicker Warren Buffett’s success is down to skill or luck?

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