Closing Bell Friday | October 16th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 16th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Friday is when the market starts collecting on Monday's promises. Everybody arrives with an opinion. The cattleman knows what his animals are worth. The packer knows what they cost. The salesman knows what he needs for the beef, and the customer knows what he's willing to pay. Two people can look at the same load of meat and see two entirely different markets. By Friday, I don't care who sounded smartest on Monday. I want to know who recognized what was changing while there was still time to act. The fellow who saw it coming usually doesn't need nearly as many words.

HOST: December live cattle settled at two twenty-seven twenty-five, up two twelve. Choice fell two fifty-two to three seventy-three ninety-eight. Select lost five eighty-five to three fifty-two sixty-two. Imported frozen nineties were assessed at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast. Domestic fresh eighty-fives averaged three sixteen. Different product. Not a direct comparison. Pork cutout lost one ninety to seventy-seven fifty-five. Ribs fell thirteen eighty-nine. Hog base rose two fifty-six to seventy-one seventy.

SHAWN: China is showing up with chicken at somebody else's table. Buyers with qualified international suppliers should be asking for fresh offers. December corn settled at four seventy-eight. Meal at three fifty-nine eighty. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures fell eight cents to four eighty-five. A supplier doesn't have to be wrong about its costs for a buyer to be right about the price. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | October 16th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 16th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Friday is when the market starts collecting on Monday's promises. Everybody arrives with an opinion. The cattleman knows what his animals are worth. The packer knows what they cost. The salesman knows what he needs for the beef, and the customer knows what he's willing to pay. Every one of them can have a perfectly reasonable argument. That's this business. Two people can look at the same load of meat and see two entirely different markets. And I've never been impressed by somebody winning an argument over price while losing money on the transaction. By Friday, I don't care who sounded smartest on Monday. I want to know who recognized what was changing while there was still time to act. Somebody will always have a good explanation for what happened. The fellow who saw it coming usually doesn't need nearly as many words.

HOST: Livestock costs and finished-meat values parted ways Thursday. Cattle futures advanced while Choice and Select boxed beef declined. Hog futures and negotiated hog prices strengthened as the pork cutout weakened. Those are different benchmarks, not a packing-margin calculation, but they expose the limits of passing costs along. The opportunity is specific. Grade-sensitive beef negotiations, weakening pork primals and new competition among global chicken exporters. Grain futures also declined despite soybean export commitments. Meanwhile, September's diesel-fuel producer price index rose twenty-one percent, a reminder that cheaper ingredients don't necessarily mean cheaper delivered protein.

SHAWN: The cattle shortage hasn't disappeared. The beef customer's willingness to pay is another matter. December live cattle futures settled Thursday at two twenty-seven twenty-five, up two twelve. November feeders gained three fifty to three forty-one ninety-five. Meanwhile, Choice boxed beef fell two fifty-two to three seventy-three ninety-eight. Select lost five eighty-five to three fifty-two sixty-two. Futures aren't cash cattle purchases, and cutouts aren't individual box quotations. But expensive livestock alongside softer wholesale beef is a difficult combination for processors. The more revealing distinction is between grades. From the previous Friday through Thursday, Choice gained sixty-three cents while Select lost one sixty-eight. Buyers able to substitute approved Select product can negotiate from evidence that Choice-only programs simply don't have. Retailers are defending prices on selected competitive items, according to industry commentary. Where beef is among them, packers may face tougher resistance to passing through cattle costs. That is a purchasing consideration, not evidence of falling beef consumption. Grinding programs have another calculation to run. Platts assessed imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast on October 14th. USDA's domestic fresh eighty-fives average Thursday was three sixteen. Different lean content, condition and delivery bases prohibit a direct savings comparison. A qualified finished-blend calculation can still reveal whether an alternative works. Scarce cattle are a structural problem. Not every finished-beef price gets permanent protection from that scarcity.

HOST: Grandma believed in a chicken in every pot. China looked at that idea and apparently saw a customer list. For decades, China was the customer exporters wanted. They built capacity and relationships around getting chicken onto Chinese tables. Now Chinese processors are showing up at somebody else's table, carrying chicken. Reuters reported approximately two point six billion dollars in Chinese chicken-product exports in 2025. Chinese suppliers are challenging businesses Brazil, Thailand and other exporters spent years developing. China doesn't have to dominate world poultry trade to change the negotiating table. Win enough orders, and yesterday's dependable customer starts asking what makes the old supplier worth more. The exporter who loses an account still has a plant, employees and a sales team. It might sharpen its pencil, pursue a different market or fight harder for existing customers. Those are potential responses, not verified diversions of shipments. Buyers with qualified international suppliers should be asking for fresh offers. At home, the opportunity is more particular. USDA forecasts broiler production of forty-nine point seven two billion pounds in 2026 and fifty point one five billion in 2027. Thursday's report described steady whole birds, weaker undertones for wings and tenders, and breast conditions varying by size. More pounds don't automatically mean more of the exact part a plant needs. But abroad, established exporters are discovering that being first to the dinner table doesn't reserve the seat. Grandma wanted everybody to have a chicken in the pot. China wants to sell everybody the chicken, the pot, and probably charge extra for the gravy. And somewhere in Brazil and Thailand, somebody's already wondering who invited China to dinner.

SHAWN: The hog buyer and rib buyer had completely different Thursdays. The national negotiated hog carcass base rose two fifty-six to seventy-one seventy. December lean hog futures gained fifty cents to settle at sixty-six fifty-eight. Meanwhile, the pork cutout lost one ninety to seventy-seven fifty-five. Ribs fell thirteen eighty-nine. Butts lost four seventy. Picnics gained. A packer's higher livestock costs are real. So is a rib customer's evidence that its product is worth less today. Subtracting futures, hog bases and cutouts won't produce a valid processor margin. Comparing the relevant primal with the supplier's offer is the stronger negotiating argument. The cutout ended Thursday two ninety-five below the prior Friday, although year-to-date hog slaughter remains below last year's pace. Individual cuts, not the hog count alone, determine the strength of a supplier's selling argument. Open rib and butt contracts deserve close attention when their pricing periods reset. Picnics require their own assessment, not a borrowed conclusion from the rib market.

HOST: More quota access doesn't necessarily mean more beef. Agricultural economist James Mitchell reports that thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the initial one hundred thousand metric ton U.S. lean-beef quota allocation through September 28th. His analysis indicates that some shipments might have entered anyway under different tariff treatment. That's an attributed September assessment, not verified current CBP utilization or a measurement of incremental nineties supply. Australia's September outlook forecasts nine point six million cattle slaughtered in 2026, offering qualified buyers another possible sourcing channel, not guaranteed delivered savings. In Brazil, uneven soybean moisture and excessive southern rainfall create planting-calendar risk for the following corn crop. No production loss has been established. New World screwworm policy is already shaping cattle movement. USDA APHIS lists Douglas, Arizona, and Santa Teresa, New Mexico, as reopened for Mexican cattle imports. Other southern border ports remain closed. Texas requires RFID identification, an electronic veterinary inspection certificate and an entry permit for qualifying Mexican-origin cattle subsequently moved into the state. These safeguards make route eligibility and compliance part of the supply equation while U.S. cattle remain scarce. Reopened ports do not establish restored import volumes or immediate price relief.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Separate Select-eligible uncovered needs from Choice-only commitments. Run finished-blend economics before treating imported frozen lean as a bargain against domestic fresh trim. Pork. Reopen rib and butt conversations where contract reset dates lag the latest primal declines. Don't extend that argument to stronger picnics. Chicken. Test uncovered wing and tender offers, but keep breast business segregated by size. Ask qualified overseas suppliers whether intensified competition has changed their terms. Feed. December corn settled at four seventy-eight. November soybeans at twelve sixty-three. December soybean meal at three fifty-nine eighty, all lower Thursday. USDA nevertheless announced 2026 and 2027 soybean export sales of three hundred thirty thousand metric tons to China and two hundred eighty-three thousand to unknown destinations. Commitments aren't shipments, and falling futures aren't proof that demand has vanished. Freight. BLS reports September diesel-fuel producer prices up twenty-one percent month over month. November NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures fell eight cents to four eighty-five Thursday. Different measures and periods, not conflicting freight quotes. Check contracted surcharge indices, reset lags, cold storage and handling before calling a lower meat offer a delivered-cost saving. Week in review. Monday's pork recovery was the week's clearest reversal. The cutout reached eighty-two ninety-seven, then fell in each subsequent session to seventy-seven fifty-five Thursday, a five forty-two decline. Meanwhile, Choice and Select beef finished on opposite sides of their previous-Friday levels. China's growing poultry-export role was the bigger competitive shift, with effects still developing. For Monday's negotiations, the unresolved question isn't whether protein is broadly cheaper. It's which specific quotations still reflect the market that produced them. Buyers have evidence to challenge certain beef and pork...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE

Closing Bell Friday | October 16th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 16th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Friday is when the market starts collecting on Monday's promises. Everybody arrives with an opinion. The cattleman knows what his animals are worth. The packer knows what they cost. The salesman knows what he needs for the beef, and the customer knows what he's willing to pay. Every one of them can have a perfectly reasonable argument. That's this business. Two people can look at the same load of meat and see two entirely different markets. And I've never been impressed by somebody winning an argument over price while losing money on the transaction. By Friday, I don't care who sounded smartest on Monday. I want to know who recognized what was changing while there was still time to act. Somebody will always have a good explanation for what happened. The fellow who saw it coming usually doesn't need nearly as many words.

HOST: Livestock costs and finished-meat values parted ways Thursday. Cattle futures advanced while Choice and Select boxed beef declined. Hog futures and negotiated hog prices strengthened as the pork cutout weakened. Those are different benchmarks, not a packing-margin calculation, but they expose the limits of passing costs along. The opportunity is specific. Grade-sensitive beef negotiations, weakening pork primals and new competition among global chicken exporters. Grain futures also declined despite soybean export commitments. Meanwhile, September's diesel-fuel producer price index rose twenty-one percent, a reminder that cheaper ingredients don't necessarily mean cheaper delivered protein.

SHAWN: The cattle shortage hasn't disappeared. The beef customer's willingness to pay is another matter. December live cattle futures settled Thursday at two twenty-seven twenty-five, up two twelve. November feeders gained three fifty to three forty-one ninety-five. Meanwhile, Choice boxed beef fell two fifty-two to three seventy-three ninety-eight. Select lost five eighty-five to three fifty-two sixty-two. Futures aren't cash cattle purchases, and cutouts aren't individual box quotations. But expensive livestock alongside softer wholesale beef is a difficult combination for processors. The more revealing distinction is between grades. From the previous Friday through Thursday, Choice gained sixty-three cents while Select lost one sixty-eight. Buyers able to substitute approved Select product can negotiate from evidence that Choice-only programs simply don't have. Retailers are defending prices on selected competitive items, according to industry commentary. Where beef is among them, packers may face tougher resistance to passing through cattle costs. That is a purchasing consideration, not evidence of falling beef consumption. Grinding programs have another calculation to run. Platts assessed imported frozen nineties at three thirteen C-I-F East Coast on October 14th. USDA's domestic fresh eighty-fives average Thursday was three sixteen. Different lean content, condition and delivery bases prohibit a direct savings comparison. A qualified finished-blend calculation can still reveal whether an alternative works. Scarce cattle are a structural problem. Not every finished-beef price gets permanent protection from that scarcity.

HOST: Grandma believed in a chicken in every pot. China looked at that idea and apparently saw a customer list. For decades, China was the customer exporters wanted. They built capacity and relationships around getting chicken onto Chinese tables. Now Chinese processors are showing up at somebody else's table, carrying chicken. Reuters reported approximately two point six billion dollars in Chinese chicken-product exports in 2025. Chinese suppliers are challenging businesses Brazil, Thailand and other exporters spent years developing. China doesn't have to dominate world poultry trade to change the negotiating table. Win enough orders, and yesterday's dependable customer starts asking what makes the old supplier worth more. The exporter who loses an account still has a plant, employees and a sales team. It might sharpen its pencil, pursue a different market or fight harder for existing customers. Those are potential responses, not verified diversions of shipments. Buyers with qualified international suppliers should be asking for fresh offers. At home, the opportunity is more particular. USDA forecasts broiler production of forty-nine point seven two billion pounds in 2026 and fifty point one five billion in 2027. Thursday's report described steady whole birds, weaker undertones for wings and tenders, and breast conditions varying by size. More pounds don't automatically mean more of the exact part a plant needs. But abroad, established exporters are discovering that being first to the dinner table doesn't reserve the seat. Grandma wanted everybody to have a chicken in the pot. China wants to sell everybody the chicken, the pot, and probably charge extra for the gravy. And somewhere in Brazil and Thailand, somebody's already wondering who invited China to dinner.

SHAWN: The hog buyer and rib buyer had completely different Thursdays. The national negotiated hog carcass base rose two fifty-six to seventy-one seventy. December lean hog futures gained fifty cents to settle at sixty-six fifty-eight. Meanwhile, the pork cutout lost one ninety to seventy-seven fifty-five. Ribs fell thirteen eighty-nine. Butts lost four seventy. Picnics gained. A packer's higher livestock costs are real. So is a rib customer's evidence that its product is worth less today. Subtracting futures, hog bases and cutouts won't produce a valid processor margin. Comparing the relevant primal with the supplier's offer is the stronger negotiating argument. The cutout ended Thursday two ninety-five below the prior Friday, although year-to-date hog slaughter remains below last year's pace. Individual cuts, not the hog count alone, determine the strength of a supplier's selling argument. Open rib and butt contracts deserve close attention when their pricing periods reset. Picnics require their own assessment, not a borrowed conclusion from the rib market.

HOST: More quota access doesn't necessarily mean more beef. Agricultural economist James Mitchell reports that thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the initial one hundred thousand metric ton U.S. lean-beef quota allocation through September 28th. His analysis indicates that some shipments might have entered anyway under different tariff treatment. That's an attributed September assessment, not verified current CBP utilization or a measurement of incremental nineties supply. Australia's September outlook forecasts nine point six million cattle slaughtered in 2026, offering qualified buyers another possible sourcing channel, not guaranteed delivered savings. In Brazil, uneven soybean moisture and excessive southern rainfall create planting-calendar risk for the following corn crop. No production loss has been established. New World screwworm policy is already shaping cattle movement. USDA APHIS lists Douglas, Arizona, and Santa Teresa, New Mexico, as reopened for Mexican cattle imports. Other southern border ports remain closed. Texas requires RFID identification, an electronic veterinary inspection certificate and an entry permit for qualifying Mexican-origin cattle subsequently moved into the state. These safeguards make route eligibility and compliance part of the supply equation while U.S. cattle remain scarce. Reopened ports do not establish restored import volumes or immediate price relief.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Separate Select-eligible uncovered needs from Choice-only commitments. Run finished-blend economics before treating imported frozen lean as a bargain against domestic fresh trim. Pork. Reopen rib and butt conversations where contract reset dates lag the latest primal declines. Don't extend that argument to stronger picnics. Chicken. Test uncovered wing and tender offers, but keep breast business segregated by size. Ask qualified overseas suppliers whether intensified competition has changed their terms. Feed. December corn settled at four seventy-eight. November soybeans at twelve sixty-three. December soybean meal at three fifty-nine eighty, all lower Thursday. USDA nevertheless announced 2026 and 2027 soybean export sales of three hundred thirty thousand metric tons to China and two hundred eighty-three thousand to unknown destinations. Commitments aren't shipments, and falling futures aren't proof that demand has vanished. Freight. BLS reports September diesel-fuel producer prices up twenty-one percent month over month. November NY Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel futures fell eight cents to four eighty-five Thursday. Different measures and periods, not conflicting freight quotes. Check contracted surcharge indices, reset lags, cold storage and handling before calling a lower meat offer a delivered-cost saving. Week in review. Monday's pork recovery was the week's clearest reversal. The cutout reached eighty-two ninety-seven, then fell in each subsequent session to seventy-seven fifty-five Thursday, a five forty-two decline. Meanwhile, Choice and Select beef finished on opposite sides of their previous-Friday levels. China's growing poultry-export role was the bigger competitive shift, with effects still developing. For Monday's negotiations, the unresolved question isn't whether protein is broadly cheaper. It's which specific quotations still reflect the market that produced them. Buyers have evidence to challenge certain beef and pork offers this week. They don't have evidence that every supplier has lost pricing power, or that every lower-priced alternative meets the specification. A processor's rising livestock costs can be genuine even when the finished product won't command yesterday's price. The useful conversation is about the cut, the grade, the contract and the customer, not an argument over which headline wins. A supplier doesn't have to be wrong about its costs for a buyer to be right about the price. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Closing Bell Friday for October 16th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 15th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, October 15th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You can be right about the market and dead wrong about the purchase. Cattle futures fell while wholesale beef rose. Hog futures weakened, but bellies took a beating as hams gained. Chicken production is growing, yet buyers aren't seeing the same conditions across every part. Fewer pounds don't guarantee stronger prices when demand is pushing back. Being right about the market doesn't mean a damn thing if you're wrong about your margin.

HOST: Choice gained one thirty-five Wednesday to three seventy-six fifty. Select rose four eighty to three fifty-eight forty-seven. December live cattle declined one twenty-five to two twenty-five twelve. Fresh nineties averaged three ninety. Fresh fifties eighty-nine. Pork cutout fell one twenty-three to seventy-nine forty-five. Bellies plunged eleven dollars to eighty-three eighty. Hams gained three oh three. Hams and bellies are two different markets. Chicken is steady, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Sterling has unhedged feedlot losses at two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head and packer margins at a positive one hundred fifty-six. Pork plant utilization is at ninety-nine point one percent. December corn settled at four eighty-one. Meal at three sixty-four fifty. Before you commit, check the cost of the exact product delivered, the yield you can recover, and the selling price your customer will accept. If those three numbers don't work, neither does the deal. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 15th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 15th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You can be right about the market and dead wrong about the purchase. Wednesday offered plenty of evidence. Cattle futures fell while wholesale beef rose. Hog futures weakened, but bellies took a beating as hams gained. Chicken production is growing, yet buyers aren't seeing the same conditions across every part. Now USDA has reduced its forecasts for both pork production and hog prices. That ought to get our attention. Fewer pounds don't guarantee stronger prices when demand is pushing back. A cattle producer, packer, grinder and restaurant operator can look at the same market and reach very different conclusions. Each is carrying a different cost and selling a different product. The mistake isn't watching the futures board. It's letting that board make a purchasing decision it wasn't designed to make. Being right about the market doesn't mean a damn thing if you're wrong about your margin.

HOST: Sterling's latest estimates put beef feedlots deeply in the red while beef packers retain positive, narrowing margins. Pork producers and packers are both seeing their margin cushion shrink as pork plant utilization approaches full capacity. USDA forecasts less domestic beef and pork production than previously expected, while chicken output expands. Hales Trading warns that a larger weekly cattle kill could test wholesale beef demand. For purchasers, Wednesday's mixed cutout, primal and futures moves argue for buying the exact product and delivery window, not the broad market headline.

SHAWN: Beef's margin divide is stark. Sterling Marketing estimates unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head for the week ended October 10th, narrower than the previous week's three hundred forty dollar loss. Its modeled breakeven for cattle marketed that week eased to two forty sixty-six, but the five-area Choice steer average was only two twenty eleven. These cash-model benchmarks exclude individual feedlot hedges. Sterling estimates beef packer margins at a positive one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, down from one hundred eighty-one the prior week. Fed plant capacity utilization slipped to seventy-nine point nine percent from eighty-two point five. Packers can post positive estimated per-head margins while still contending with the fixed-cost consequences of running plants below capacity. Neither model represents any individual company's audited results. The next test is demand. USDA estimated Wednesday's cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, with week-to-date slaughter at three hundred twenty-six thousand. Hales Trading raised its forecast for the full week to five hundred forty to five hundred fifty thousand head and warned that additional beef could pressure Choice cutout values below three seventy. That is Hales' conditional forecast, not an observed price or a confirmed slaughter total. For now the tape moved the other way. Wednesday's USDA Choice cutout gained one thirty-five to three seventy-six fifty. Select rose four eighty to three fifty-eight forty-seven. December live cattle futures declined one twenty-five to two twenty-five twelve. Wholesale recovery and futures weakness are different market signals. Neither alone establishes tomorrow's delivered beef cost. Cash discovery complicates the comparison. USDA recorded just two hundred ninety-seven head of negotiated cash cattle purchases Wednesday, while substantial cattle volumes continued to be priced through formulas and grids. Buyers using cash-referenced contracts should check their benchmark, premiums and settlement dates rather than extrapolating from a thin daily negotiation sample. The grind remains a separate purchasing decision. National fresh nineties averaged three ninety. Fresh eighty-fives two eighty-eight. Fresh fifties eighty-nine. Cheaper fat trim does not necessarily reduce a finished ground-beef formula's cost after lean requirements, yields and delivery terms are considered. October Wasdy also revised beef-production forecasts lower for both 2026 and 2027. Tighter cattle availability is still the underlying constraint.

HOST: Chicken supplies continue expanding, but the price signal depends on the part. USDA's October 14th hatchery report put eggs set three percent above a year earlier and chicks placed one percent higher for the week ended October 10th. Young-chicken slaughter is up one point three percent year to date. Egg sets, placements and current slaughter describe different points in the supply pipeline. They do not mean the same pounds are immediately available. USDA called Wednesday's domestic broiler market steady. Bone-in and boneless breasts and tenders held steady. Wing demand was light and dark-meat supplies were clearing well. An uncovered wing buyer has reason to request fresh offers. There is no corresponding USDA indication of a breast-price break. Dark-meat buyers should test availability and delivery requirements instead of treating orderly movement as oversupply. For foodservice operators evaluating chicken against expensive beef, the decision is finished portion cost. Compare usable yield, processing requirements, menu acceptance and contracted deliveries. Greater bird production improves options only when the needed specification can be purchased at an advantageous delivered price.

SHAWN: Pork's capacity numbers explain why margin pressure deserves attention. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish profits at sixteen eighty-seven a head for the week ended October 10th, down from eighteen ninety-three. Modeled pork packer margins narrowed to six ninety-nine a head from eight ninety-four, while market hog slaughter reached two point five six seven million head and estimated plant utilization climbed to ninety-nine point one percent. High throughput has not translated into wider modeled margins on either side of the plant. October Wasdy lowered both 2026 and 2027 pork-production forecasts, while still projecting more production in 2027 than 2026. Hog-price and export forecasts also moved lower. A downward revision to supply expectations is not automatically a forecast of higher prices when product demand is resistant. Wednesday's negotiated pork cutout fell one twenty-three to seventy-nine forty-five. Bellies plunged eleven dollars to eighty-three eighty. Hams gained three oh three to sixty-eight sixty-six. Picnics lost four eighty-three, while loins and butts edged higher. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-six oh eight, down one ninety-five. Wednesday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Bacon processors should refresh uncovered belly bids and check when formula contracts recognize the decline. Ham and loin buyers should not demand identical concessions simply because the overall cutout fell. Sterling's weekly comprehensive cutout and USDA's daily negotiated cutout cover different transactions and periods. They must not be merged into a single margin calculation.

HOST: The latest international outlook favors expanding chicken trade rather than uniform protein growth. Len Steiner's October 14th Daily Livestock Report, citing USDA FAS, places 2027 global chicken production at one hundred fourteen point nine million metric tons, up two point two percent, and chicken exports at fifteen point six million, up three point four percent. The same report describes global beef output as approximately flat and pork output modestly lower. These are attributed 2027 forecasts. The underlying global FAS tables remain unreconciled. More global chicken does not guarantee cheaper U.S. parts. Export access, competing destinations and specific cut demand determine where additional pounds clear. Separately, USDA FAS identifies possible El Niño disruption to Brazilian soybean planting and second-crop corn timing. That is a forward risk, not an established crop loss. Feed procurement should follow physical supply and delivered basis. EPA's proposed treatment of renewable-fuel obligations related to previous small-refinery exemptions could change future soybean-oil demand and crush incentives. It remains a proposal, not a confirmed feed-cost change. Any purchasing response should depend on actual meal availability and local basis rather than assuming a regulatory outcome.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Check fed-cattle replacement economics, the cash benchmark underlying formula contracts, and boxed-beef offers by cut and delivery window. Compare approved ground-beef blends, not isolated lean and fat quotes. Chicken. Rebid uncovered wings. Test breast and dark-meat terms separately. Evaluate substitutions against finished yield and customer specifications. Pork. Seek updated belly bids and verify contract reset dates. Keep ham and loin coverage tied to their own markets. Feed. December corn settled at four eighty-one, down two cents, while December soybean meal rose one thirty to three sixty-four fifty. Confirm basis, freight and ration costs before booking savings. What I'm watching. Whether more cattle slaughter actually weakens Choice beef. Whether negotiated cash trade becomes a meaningful price test. Whether bellies stabilize as pork plants run near capacity. And whether expanding chicken supply produces better part-specific delivered offers. Before committing working capital, check three numbers. The cost of the exact product delivered. The yield you can actually recover. And the selling price your customer will accept. A favorable market call is not a purchasing strategy. If those three...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 15th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 15th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You can be right about the market and dead wrong about the purchase. Wednesday offered plenty of evidence. Cattle futures fell while wholesale beef rose. Hog futures weakened, but bellies took a beating as hams gained. Chicken production is growing, yet buyers aren't seeing the same conditions across every part. Now USDA has reduced its forecasts for both pork production and hog prices. That ought to get our attention. Fewer pounds don't guarantee stronger prices when demand is pushing back. A cattle producer, packer, grinder and restaurant operator can look at the same market and reach very different conclusions. Each is carrying a different cost and selling a different product. The mistake isn't watching the futures board. It's letting that board make a purchasing decision it wasn't designed to make. Being right about the market doesn't mean a damn thing if you're wrong about your margin.

HOST: Sterling's latest estimates put beef feedlots deeply in the red while beef packers retain positive, narrowing margins. Pork producers and packers are both seeing their margin cushion shrink as pork plant utilization approaches full capacity. USDA forecasts less domestic beef and pork production than previously expected, while chicken output expands. Hales Trading warns that a larger weekly cattle kill could test wholesale beef demand. For purchasers, Wednesday's mixed cutout, primal and futures moves argue for buying the exact product and delivery window, not the broad market headline.

SHAWN: Beef's margin divide is stark. Sterling Marketing estimates unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head for the week ended October 10th, narrower than the previous week's three hundred forty dollar loss. Its modeled breakeven for cattle marketed that week eased to two forty sixty-six, but the five-area Choice steer average was only two twenty eleven. These cash-model benchmarks exclude individual feedlot hedges. Sterling estimates beef packer margins at a positive one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, down from one hundred eighty-one the prior week. Fed plant capacity utilization slipped to seventy-nine point nine percent from eighty-two point five. Packers can post positive estimated per-head margins while still contending with the fixed-cost consequences of running plants below capacity. Neither model represents any individual company's audited results. The next test is demand. USDA estimated Wednesday's cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, with week-to-date slaughter at three hundred twenty-six thousand. Hales Trading raised its forecast for the full week to five hundred forty to five hundred fifty thousand head and warned that additional beef could pressure Choice cutout values below three seventy. That is Hales' conditional forecast, not an observed price or a confirmed slaughter total. For now the tape moved the other way. Wednesday's USDA Choice cutout gained one thirty-five to three seventy-six fifty. Select rose four eighty to three fifty-eight forty-seven. December live cattle futures declined one twenty-five to two twenty-five twelve. Wholesale recovery and futures weakness are different market signals. Neither alone establishes tomorrow's delivered beef cost. Cash discovery complicates the comparison. USDA recorded just two hundred ninety-seven head of negotiated cash cattle purchases Wednesday, while substantial cattle volumes continued to be priced through formulas and grids. Buyers using cash-referenced contracts should check their benchmark, premiums and settlement dates rather than extrapolating from a thin daily negotiation sample. The grind remains a separate purchasing decision. National fresh nineties averaged three ninety. Fresh eighty-fives two eighty-eight. Fresh fifties eighty-nine. Cheaper fat trim does not necessarily reduce a finished ground-beef formula's cost after lean requirements, yields and delivery terms are considered. October Wasdy also revised beef-production forecasts lower for both 2026 and 2027. Tighter cattle availability is still the underlying constraint.

HOST: Chicken supplies continue expanding, but the price signal depends on the part. USDA's October 14th hatchery report put eggs set three percent above a year earlier and chicks placed one percent higher for the week ended October 10th. Young-chicken slaughter is up one point three percent year to date. Egg sets, placements and current slaughter describe different points in the supply pipeline. They do not mean the same pounds are immediately available. USDA called Wednesday's domestic broiler market steady. Bone-in and boneless breasts and tenders held steady. Wing demand was light and dark-meat supplies were clearing well. An uncovered wing buyer has reason to request fresh offers. There is no corresponding USDA indication of a breast-price break. Dark-meat buyers should test availability and delivery requirements instead of treating orderly movement as oversupply. For foodservice operators evaluating chicken against expensive beef, the decision is finished portion cost. Compare usable yield, processing requirements, menu acceptance and contracted deliveries. Greater bird production improves options only when the needed specification can be purchased at an advantageous delivered price.

SHAWN: Pork's capacity numbers explain why margin pressure deserves attention. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish profits at sixteen eighty-seven a head for the week ended October 10th, down from eighteen ninety-three. Modeled pork packer margins narrowed to six ninety-nine a head from eight ninety-four, while market hog slaughter reached two point five six seven million head and estimated plant utilization climbed to ninety-nine point one percent. High throughput has not translated into wider modeled margins on either side of the plant. October Wasdy lowered both 2026 and 2027 pork-production forecasts, while still projecting more production in 2027 than 2026. Hog-price and export forecasts also moved lower. A downward revision to supply expectations is not automatically a forecast of higher prices when product demand is resistant. Wednesday's negotiated pork cutout fell one twenty-three to seventy-nine forty-five. Bellies plunged eleven dollars to eighty-three eighty. Hams gained three oh three to sixty-eight sixty-six. Picnics lost four eighty-three, while loins and butts edged higher. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-six oh eight, down one ninety-five. Wednesday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-seven thousand head. Bacon processors should refresh uncovered belly bids and check when formula contracts recognize the decline. Ham and loin buyers should not demand identical concessions simply because the overall cutout fell. Sterling's weekly comprehensive cutout and USDA's daily negotiated cutout cover different transactions and periods. They must not be merged into a single margin calculation.

HOST: The latest international outlook favors expanding chicken trade rather than uniform protein growth. Len Steiner's October 14th Daily Livestock Report, citing USDA FAS, places 2027 global chicken production at one hundred fourteen point nine million metric tons, up two point two percent, and chicken exports at fifteen point six million, up three point four percent. The same report describes global beef output as approximately flat and pork output modestly lower. These are attributed 2027 forecasts. The underlying global FAS tables remain unreconciled. More global chicken does not guarantee cheaper U.S. parts. Export access, competing destinations and specific cut demand determine where additional pounds clear. Separately, USDA FAS identifies possible El Niño disruption to Brazilian soybean planting and second-crop corn timing. That is a forward risk, not an established crop loss. Feed procurement should follow physical supply and delivered basis. EPA's proposed treatment of renewable-fuel obligations related to previous small-refinery exemptions could change future soybean-oil demand and crush incentives. It remains a proposal, not a confirmed feed-cost change. Any purchasing response should depend on actual meal availability and local basis rather than assuming a regulatory outcome.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef. Check fed-cattle replacement economics, the cash benchmark underlying formula contracts, and boxed-beef offers by cut and delivery window. Compare approved ground-beef blends, not isolated lean and fat quotes. Chicken. Rebid uncovered wings. Test breast and dark-meat terms separately. Evaluate substitutions against finished yield and customer specifications. Pork. Seek updated belly bids and verify contract reset dates. Keep ham and loin coverage tied to their own markets. Feed. December corn settled at four eighty-one, down two cents, while December soybean meal rose one thirty to three sixty-four fifty. Confirm basis, freight and ration costs before booking savings. What I'm watching. Whether more cattle slaughter actually weakens Choice beef. Whether negotiated cash trade becomes a meaningful price test. Whether bellies stabilize as pork plants run near capacity. And whether expanding chicken supply produces better part-specific delivered offers. Before committing working capital, check three numbers. The cost of the exact product delivered. The yield you can actually recover. And the selling price your customer will accept. A favorable market call is not a purchasing strategy. If those three numbers don't work, neither does the deal. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Thursday Margin Monitor for October 15th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | October 14th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, October 14th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA says we're going to have more corn. That's good news. Now somebody needs to get it out of the field. Iowa has harvested just fourteen percent of its corn crop against a five-year average of thirty-four percent. Diesel futures just jumped more than twenty-one cents a gallon. Anybody celebrating cheaper feed without checking basis and freight is only doing half the math. I've never seen a truck or tractor run on a USDA forecast. A softer beef cutout doesn't create more cattle. More hogs don't guarantee somebody wants the ham. The market doesn't pay you for reading the headline. It pays you for knowing what happens next.

HOST: Choice closed Tuesday at three seventy-five fifteen, down forty-one cents. Select at three fifty-three sixty-seven. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point four percent. Pork cutout fell two twenty-nine to eighty sixty-eight after Monday's rise. Hams dropped six ninety-nine. Bellies gained three forty-seven. Hams and bellies are two different markets. Chicken is generally steady, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Fresh eighty-fives were three twenty-two. Fresh fifties ninety cents. No reportable national fresh nineties. December corn settled at four eighty-three. Meal at three sixty-three twenty, down five fifty. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel jumped twenty-one cents. Iowa corn is fourteen percent harvested against a thirty-four percent average. Beef's near-term softness doesn't solve a cattle shortage. Pork has opportunities in weaker primals, not an across-the-board markdown. Watch delivered cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | October 14th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 14th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA says we're going to have more corn. That's good news. Now somebody needs to get it out of the field. Iowa has harvested just fourteen percent of its corn crop against a five-year average of thirty-four percent. Soybean meal futures are easing, but diesel futures just jumped more than twenty-one cents a gallon. Anybody celebrating cheaper feed without checking basis and freight is only doing half the math. I've spent my whole life in agriculture, and I've never seen a truck or tractor run on a USDA forecast. The same goes for meat. A softer beef cutout doesn't create more cattle. More hogs moving through a plant don't guarantee somebody wants the ham. Chicken can add pounds without giving every cut the same demand. There are opportunities in this market, but they're not waiting in a headline for somebody to pick them up. The market doesn't pay you for reading the headline. It pays you for knowing what happens next.

HOST: Beef cutouts eased Tuesday even as available cattle remain constrained. Pork's decline was led by hams, with weaker export demand adding context. Bellies moved the other direction. Chicken remained generally steady with production projected higher. USDA's larger corn outlook conflicts with the immediate reality of slow harvest movement. Soybean meal futures softened as diesel futures jumped. A new challenge to CME's livestock-futures franchise could ultimately give hedgers more choices, but the proposed contracts have not launched.

SHAWN: USDA Choice boxed beef closed Tuesday at three seventy-five fifteen, down forty-one cents. Select lost forty-six cents to three fifty-three sixty-seven, leaving a Choice Select spread of twenty-one forty-eight. That's a modest decline, not evidence that beef supply has suddenly loosened. USDA estimated Tuesday's federally inspected cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, bringing the two-day total to two hundred sixteen thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter was seven point four percent below the comparable period last year. Plants designed for higher throughput continue contending with fewer animals. December live cattle settled at two twenty-six thirty-eight, down twenty-three cents, while November feeder cattle settled at three forty-one, down seven and a half cents. The futures declines are not a new negotiated cash-cattle benchmark. USDA's five-area report published Tuesday recapped Monday and showed no reportable trades. Sterling Marketing's week-ended October 10th model estimated unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head and positive packer margins of one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, with fed-plant utilization at seventy-nine point nine percent. These weekly estimates are model benchmarks rather than company earnings. They show how differently the same cattle market can treat feeders and processors. October Wasdy forecasts 2026 commercial beef production at twenty-four point eight oh two billion pounds, below its September projection. Softer spot cutouts do not eliminate forward supply risk. A buyer covered on rib and loin faces a different problem from a grinder comparing fresh domestic trim with frozen imports. The pounds are not automatically interchangeable, and neither is the risk. Hales Trading also reports that strong rib values helped support the broader Choice cutout while grinds and rounds weakened. That makes holiday middle-meat exposure worth reviewing separately from routine grinding-beef coverage. A firm rib market can disguise weakness elsewhere in the carcass.

HOST: Monday's cutout recovery didn't last. USDA's pork carcass cutout declined two twenty-nine Tuesday to eighty sixty-eight after Monday's two forty-seven rise. Hams dropped six ninety-nine to sixty-five sixty-three. Butts lost four twenty-three and loins two sixty-six. Bellies gained three forty-seven and ribs added twenty-six cents. USMEF's review of USDA trade data adds a demand warning. August U.S. pork and variety-meat exports totaled two hundred twenty-two thousand metric tons, down six percent from a year earlier. Value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. Mexico accounted for much of the reduction, with USMEF identifying softer ham demand. August exports do not explain a single October settlement, but they help explain why hams deserve closer attention. USDA estimated Tuesday hog slaughter at four hundred ninety-six thousand head and week-to-date slaughter at nine hundred eighty-one thousand. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-eight, down thirty-five cents. Steiner Consulting reports increasing producer-owned hog carcass weights, adding pounds to a seasonally heavier flow of hogs. Sterling estimated farrow-to-finish margins of sixteen eighty-seven a head and pork packer margins of six ninety-nine a head for the week ended October 10th. Its modeled market-hog plant utilization reached ninety-nine point one percent. None of those margins represents every operation. For procurement, negotiate the primal, specification and delivery window, not the cutout headline. Hams and bellies are giving buyers two distinctly different markets. USMEF also reports stronger shipments to several Central American and Caribbean destinations, reminding us that export demand is shifting rather than disappearing everywhere. The question for processors is whether those outlets can absorb enough product, in the right cuts, to improve domestic balances.

SHAWN: USDA's Tuesday broiler commentary described a generally steady market. Bone-in breasts and front halves were fully steady. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders were about steady. Dark meat moved well, while wing demand was unseasonably light. Estimated young-chicken slaughter reached thirty-five million birds Tuesday. Year-to-date slaughter was up one point three percent versus last year, contrasting with reduced cattle and hog numbers. October Wasdy projects forty-nine point seven two billion pounds of federally inspected broiler production for 2026, above the September forecast. More available chicken offers alternatives, not identical pricing across parts. Foodservice buyers should compare delivered yields, portion consistency and labor before substituting products. An apparently cheaper raw pound is not a saving if finished cost rises. That is especially relevant for operators using value-added chicken, where preparation time, cooking loss and serving consistency all contribute to the real cost per plate. Supply volume and operating value need to be evaluated together.

HOST: USDA FAS's October global outlook projects world beef production falling from sixty-two point three million metric tons carcass-weight equivalent in 2025 to sixty point two million in 2026, and sixty million in 2027. Those are estimates and forecasts, not cattle-inventory counts. Production differs by country. Growing output elsewhere does not erase tightening in major producing regions. Global trade can redistribute available beef, but access, product approval and freight decide what reaches a U.S. buyer. The Protein Pulse is examining the deeper Brazil-China-U.S. cattle-supply question for a separate special report. Conflicting inventory methodologies require care. A worldwide herd-loss headline should not be mistaken for a verified count of animals removed from production. USDA also forecasts China's 2027 pork imports at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons, underscoring competition for export customers beyond China. A potential change in livestock risk management is taking shape. Bloomberg reports that Intercontinental Exchange intends to introduce competing cattle and hog futures, targeting a December 7th launch, subject to regulatory review. The proposal includes physically settled cattle futures and cash-settled livestock contracts. For hedgers, a second venue could eventually create alternatives in contract design and execution. But choice alone does not guarantee liquidity. Until specifications, participation, spreads and clearing arrangements are established, CME remains the working benchmark for current positions. Procurement teams should watch the rollout without treating a planned listing as an already functioning hedge.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. USDA's October 13th national afternoon processing-beef report put fresh eighty-fives at three twenty-two and fresh fifties at ninety cents, with no reportable national fresh nineties trade. An older domestic price or an imported frozen quotation cannot fill that reporting gap on a like-for-like basis. Check lean specification, condition, delivery terms and formulation limits before calculating blend savings. USDA NASS reports the corn harvest thirty-three percent complete and soybeans forty-six percent complete as of October 11th, compared with five-year averages of thirty-nine and fifty percent. Iowa corn stood at fourteen percent, against a thirty-four percent average. October Wasdy projects sixteen point oh three four billion bushels of corn production and one point eight four nine billion of ending stocks. A larger national balance sheet cannot guarantee prompt local delivery. December corn settled at four eighty-three, down a quarter-cent, and December soybean meal at three sixty-three twenty, down five fifty. November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel settled at four ninety-three, up twenty-one cents. Delivered feed economics need both grain basis and transportation, not just the grain futures screen. What I'm watching. The pace of harvest in delayed areas, whether...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE

Wednesday Watchlist | October 14th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 14th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA says we're going to have more corn. That's good news. Now somebody needs to get it out of the field. Iowa has harvested just fourteen percent of its corn crop against a five-year average of thirty-four percent. Soybean meal futures are easing, but diesel futures just jumped more than twenty-one cents a gallon. Anybody celebrating cheaper feed without checking basis and freight is only doing half the math. I've spent my whole life in agriculture, and I've never seen a truck or tractor run on a USDA forecast. The same goes for meat. A softer beef cutout doesn't create more cattle. More hogs moving through a plant don't guarantee somebody wants the ham. Chicken can add pounds without giving every cut the same demand. There are opportunities in this market, but they're not waiting in a headline for somebody to pick them up. The market doesn't pay you for reading the headline. It pays you for knowing what happens next.

HOST: Beef cutouts eased Tuesday even as available cattle remain constrained. Pork's decline was led by hams, with weaker export demand adding context. Bellies moved the other direction. Chicken remained generally steady with production projected higher. USDA's larger corn outlook conflicts with the immediate reality of slow harvest movement. Soybean meal futures softened as diesel futures jumped. A new challenge to CME's livestock-futures franchise could ultimately give hedgers more choices, but the proposed contracts have not launched.

SHAWN: USDA Choice boxed beef closed Tuesday at three seventy-five fifteen, down forty-one cents. Select lost forty-six cents to three fifty-three sixty-seven, leaving a Choice Select spread of twenty-one forty-eight. That's a modest decline, not evidence that beef supply has suddenly loosened. USDA estimated Tuesday's federally inspected cattle slaughter at one hundred ten thousand head, bringing the two-day total to two hundred sixteen thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter was seven point four percent below the comparable period last year. Plants designed for higher throughput continue contending with fewer animals. December live cattle settled at two twenty-six thirty-eight, down twenty-three cents, while November feeder cattle settled at three forty-one, down seven and a half cents. The futures declines are not a new negotiated cash-cattle benchmark. USDA's five-area report published Tuesday recapped Monday and showed no reportable trades. Sterling Marketing's week-ended October 10th model estimated unhedged feedlot losses of two hundred eighty-eight dollars a head and positive packer margins of one hundred fifty-six dollars a head, with fed-plant utilization at seventy-nine point nine percent. These weekly estimates are model benchmarks rather than company earnings. They show how differently the same cattle market can treat feeders and processors. October Wasdy forecasts 2026 commercial beef production at twenty-four point eight oh two billion pounds, below its September projection. Softer spot cutouts do not eliminate forward supply risk. A buyer covered on rib and loin faces a different problem from a grinder comparing fresh domestic trim with frozen imports. The pounds are not automatically interchangeable, and neither is the risk. Hales Trading also reports that strong rib values helped support the broader Choice cutout while grinds and rounds weakened. That makes holiday middle-meat exposure worth reviewing separately from routine grinding-beef coverage. A firm rib market can disguise weakness elsewhere in the carcass.

HOST: Monday's cutout recovery didn't last. USDA's pork carcass cutout declined two twenty-nine Tuesday to eighty sixty-eight after Monday's two forty-seven rise. Hams dropped six ninety-nine to sixty-five sixty-three. Butts lost four twenty-three and loins two sixty-six. Bellies gained three forty-seven and ribs added twenty-six cents. USMEF's review of USDA trade data adds a demand warning. August U.S. pork and variety-meat exports totaled two hundred twenty-two thousand metric tons, down six percent from a year earlier. Value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. Mexico accounted for much of the reduction, with USMEF identifying softer ham demand. August exports do not explain a single October settlement, but they help explain why hams deserve closer attention. USDA estimated Tuesday hog slaughter at four hundred ninety-six thousand head and week-to-date slaughter at nine hundred eighty-one thousand. December lean hog futures settled at sixty-eight, down thirty-five cents. Steiner Consulting reports increasing producer-owned hog carcass weights, adding pounds to a seasonally heavier flow of hogs. Sterling estimated farrow-to-finish margins of sixteen eighty-seven a head and pork packer margins of six ninety-nine a head for the week ended October 10th. Its modeled market-hog plant utilization reached ninety-nine point one percent. None of those margins represents every operation. For procurement, negotiate the primal, specification and delivery window, not the cutout headline. Hams and bellies are giving buyers two distinctly different markets. USMEF also reports stronger shipments to several Central American and Caribbean destinations, reminding us that export demand is shifting rather than disappearing everywhere. The question for processors is whether those outlets can absorb enough product, in the right cuts, to improve domestic balances.

SHAWN: USDA's Tuesday broiler commentary described a generally steady market. Bone-in breasts and front halves were fully steady. Boneless skinless breasts and tenders were about steady. Dark meat moved well, while wing demand was unseasonably light. Estimated young-chicken slaughter reached thirty-five million birds Tuesday. Year-to-date slaughter was up one point three percent versus last year, contrasting with reduced cattle and hog numbers. October Wasdy projects forty-nine point seven two billion pounds of federally inspected broiler production for 2026, above the September forecast. More available chicken offers alternatives, not identical pricing across parts. Foodservice buyers should compare delivered yields, portion consistency and labor before substituting products. An apparently cheaper raw pound is not a saving if finished cost rises. That is especially relevant for operators using value-added chicken, where preparation time, cooking loss and serving consistency all contribute to the real cost per plate. Supply volume and operating value need to be evaluated together.

HOST: USDA FAS's October global outlook projects world beef production falling from sixty-two point three million metric tons carcass-weight equivalent in 2025 to sixty point two million in 2026, and sixty million in 2027. Those are estimates and forecasts, not cattle-inventory counts. Production differs by country. Growing output elsewhere does not erase tightening in major producing regions. Global trade can redistribute available beef, but access, product approval and freight decide what reaches a U.S. buyer. The Protein Pulse is examining the deeper Brazil-China-U.S. cattle-supply question for a separate special report. Conflicting inventory methodologies require care. A worldwide herd-loss headline should not be mistaken for a verified count of animals removed from production. USDA also forecasts China's 2027 pork imports at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons, underscoring competition for export customers beyond China. A potential change in livestock risk management is taking shape. Bloomberg reports that Intercontinental Exchange intends to introduce competing cattle and hog futures, targeting a December 7th launch, subject to regulatory review. The proposal includes physically settled cattle futures and cash-settled livestock contracts. For hedgers, a second venue could eventually create alternatives in contract design and execution. But choice alone does not guarantee liquidity. Until specifications, participation, spreads and clearing arrangements are established, CME remains the working benchmark for current positions. Procurement teams should watch the rollout without treating a planned listing as an already functioning hedge.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. USDA's October 13th national afternoon processing-beef report put fresh eighty-fives at three twenty-two and fresh fifties at ninety cents, with no reportable national fresh nineties trade. An older domestic price or an imported frozen quotation cannot fill that reporting gap on a like-for-like basis. Check lean specification, condition, delivery terms and formulation limits before calculating blend savings. USDA NASS reports the corn harvest thirty-three percent complete and soybeans forty-six percent complete as of October 11th, compared with five-year averages of thirty-nine and fifty percent. Iowa corn stood at fourteen percent, against a thirty-four percent average. October Wasdy projects sixteen point oh three four billion bushels of corn production and one point eight four nine billion of ending stocks. A larger national balance sheet cannot guarantee prompt local delivery. December corn settled at four eighty-three, down a quarter-cent, and December soybean meal at three sixty-three twenty, down five fifty. November Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel settled at four ninety-three, up twenty-one cents. Delivered feed economics need both grain basis and transportation, not just the grain futures screen. What I'm watching. The pace of harvest in delayed areas, whether ham demand finds footing as hog weights rise, and whether new broiler hatchery numbers support USDA's larger chicken forecast. The Intercontinental Exchange initiative also deserves follow-through. Contract announcements are one thing. Usable hedging liquidity is another. Beef's near-term softness doesn't solve a cattle shortage. Pork has opportunities in weaker primals, not an across-the-board markdown. Chicken brings more supply flexibility, with its own cut-by-cut economics. Watch delivered cost, product yield and coverage timing. Markets reward the buyer who knows what's actually available, not the buyer who mistakes a headline for a purchase order. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Wednesday Watchlist for October 14th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 13th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, October 13th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The next move in protein may not come from Chicago or the Southern Plains. It may come from overseas. Brazil is looking for new beef customers as China limits imports and Europe closes its doors. China is buying less foreign pork, and Spain is redirecting product following disease-related trade restrictions. That's a lot of meat looking for a home. I'm not suggesting we'll suddenly see cheaper beef or pork. But when major exporters start competing for different customers, pricing opportunities can develop. Sometimes the biggest opportunities aren't created by what happens here, but by what's changing somewhere else.

HOST: Choice advanced two twenty-one Monday to three seventy-five fifty-six. Fresh domestic nineties averaged three ninety-six. Imported frozen nineties indications near three seventeen to three nineteen are worth watching, but they are not directly comparable. Cattle slaughter remains seven point four percent below last year. The five-area live F-O-B average stood at two twenty twenty.

SHAWN: Pork delivered Monday's strongest move. The cutout advanced two forty-seven to eighty-two ninety-seven. Hams up three thirty-three. Bellies up two oh six to ninety-one thirty-three. The question is whether that improvement holds. Chicken breasts averaged one eighteen. Thighs one sixty-eight. Slaughter is up one point three percent. December corn closed at four eighty-three. Meal at three sixty-eight seventy. Monday's pork rebound was worth noticing. So is the changing international trade outlook. The numbers tell us where the market stands. Knowing which ones could change tomorrow is what gives buyers an advantage. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 13th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The next move in protein may not come from Chicago or the Southern Plains. It may come from overseas. Brazil is looking for new beef customers as China limits imports and Europe closes its doors. China is buying less foreign pork, and Spain is redirecting product following disease-related trade restrictions. That's a lot of meat looking for a home, and buyers should be paying attention. I'm not suggesting we'll suddenly see cheaper beef or pork. But when major exporters start competing for different customers, pricing opportunities can develop. And those opportunities may show up where we least expect them. We've been talking about cattle numbers long enough. This week I'm more interested in who is selling, who's buying, and whether those shifts start changing the offers we see here at home. Remember, sometimes the biggest opportunities aren't created by what happens here, but by what's changing somewhere else.

HOST: Pork opened the week with a two forty-seven cutout increase. Choice beef strengthened, and changing international trade conditions are creating new questions about protein competition. JBS is highlighting opportunities in prepared protein, while revised USDA hog-farrowing comparisons deserve attention heading into 2027. For buyers, the immediate priorities are lean-beef replacement costs, whether pork's wholesale recovery holds, and how changing consumer and export demand affect purchasing opportunities.

SHAWN: Choice boxed beef advanced two twenty-one Monday to three seventy-five fifty-six. Select declined seventeen cents to three fifty-four thirteen. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-one forty-three. December live cattle finished at two twenty-six sixty, down forty-five cents, while the latest five-area weekly live F-O-B average stood at two twenty twenty. Cattle slaughter remains seven point four percent below last year. Fresh domestic nineties averaged three ninety-six. Eighty-fives at three thirty-four. Sixty-fives at one fifty-two. Fifties at eighty-seven cents. Earlier imported frozen nineties indications near three seventeen to three nineteen suggest a market worth watching, although those assessments cannot be directly compared with Monday's fresh domestic quotations. At the same time, Brazilian exporters face changing market access in China and Europe. That could affect competition in international beef markets, although it does not establish additional U.S. availability or lower domestic prices. USDA forecasts U.S. beef imports declining three percent in 2027 under current quota assumptions. For ground-beef processors, the opportunity is to watch whether international competition translates into attractive delivered quotations. The spread between published market assessments is not necessarily the spread available to an individual buyer.

HOST: Chicken continues to provide competitive purchasing options, with young-chicken slaughter running one point three percent above last year. USDA's October 5th through 9th weekly averages placed boneless skinless breasts at one eighteen, tenderloins at one thirteen fifty, whole wings at one ten sixty, boneless skinless thighs at one sixty-eight, and bulk leg quarters at fifty-three cents. An interesting development is coming from JBS, where prepared-foods leadership sees growing protein interest among younger consumers and GLP-1 users as an opportunity across chicken, pork and beef. That makes product innovation and convenience increasingly relevant to processors and foodservice operators. Consumer interest in protein may create opportunities beyond traditional commodity cuts, although actual sales and margins will determine which products succeed. Reported avian influenza cases involving Minnesota turkey breeders and commercial poultry in Canada remain worth monitoring. These reports do not establish a direct disruption to U.S. broiler supplies. Buyers should continue evaluating chicken on cut-specific economics while watching where demand for prepared and value-added products is developing.

SHAWN: Pork delivered Monday's strongest wholesale move. The carcass cutout advanced two forty-seven to eighty-two ninety-seven, with five of six primals gaining ground. Hams increased three thirty-three to seventy-two sixty-two. Picnics rose two ninety-three to sixty-five fifty-seven. Loins climbed two eighty-three to eighty-three seventy-one. Bellies added two oh six to ninety-one thirty-three. Ribs declined fifty-five cents to one fifty oh four. The question now is whether that improvement carries through the week or proves to be another short-lived recovery. Monday's estimated hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-eight thousand head. Year-to-date slaughter remains zero point nine percent below last year, while the latest weekly carcass-weight average was two hundred sixteen point four pounds, up one point one pounds from a year earlier. Looking further ahead, USDA reported December through February farrowing intentions two point one percent above the comparable earlier period. Economist Lee Schulz has pointed out that downward revisions to the comparison year complicate how that increase should be interpreted when projecting 2027 hog availability. A higher percentage does not automatically tell us how many additional market hogs will become available. A separate forward weaner-pig model also points to challenging producer economics, with a projected ninety-nine cent a head loss under its March 2027 assumptions. For buyers, near-term pork coverage should still be driven by actual primal movement and replacement costs, not distant supply projections.

HOST: International protein competition is changing. USDA forecasts Brazilian beef exports declining from four point two million metric tons in 2026 to four point one million in 2027, with restrictions in important destination markets affecting the outlook. China's pork imports are projected at eight hundred twenty thousand metric tons in 2027, down two percent. Disease-related restrictions affecting Spanish pork add another complication to international trade patterns. These developments could increase competition in alternative export markets, with implications for U.S. protein sellers and buyers. The magnitude and direction of any price effects remain uncertain. December corn closed Monday at four eighty-three, up three and a quarter cents, while December soybean meal advanced three ten to three sixty-eight seventy. Changing trade patterns deserve attention, but forecasts should not be mistaken for completed shipments or confirmed price moves. September's temporary U.S. beef tariff-rate quota expansion authorized an additional one hundred thousand metric tons of access. A published compilation reported thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered through September 28th, representing approximately thirty-seven point five percent of the allocation at that point. Those preliminary figures do not establish final September utilization or how much additional beef entered the market because of the policy. The U.S. lamb-import investigation also remains active, with an October 16th hearing scheduled. No final remedy has been established.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Beef: watch domestic processing-beef values against comparable imported quotations. Changing export competition could create opportunities worth examining. Pork: reevaluate ham, belly and loin replacement costs following Monday's recovery. Watch for confirmation in subsequent trading. Chicken: follow prepared-protein demand and changing cut economics as processors pursue higher-value product opportunities. Freight: keep refrigerated transportation costs and applicable fuel surcharges in delivered-cost calculations. What I'm watching. Whether the pork cutout maintains Monday's gains. Updated beef-import utilization and processing-beef quotations. Where Brazilian beef exports move as market access changes. Revisions to hog-farrowing intentions and future supply expectations. Evidence that consumer interest in prepared protein is translating into stronger product demand. Monday's pork rebound was worth noticing. So are JBS's ambitions in prepared protein and the changing international trade outlook. But the real opportunity isn't in repeating what we already know about cattle supplies or assuming overseas developments will immediately change U.S. prices. It's recognizing which developments are new, which are actually affecting today's market, and where the next opportunity could emerge. The numbers tell us where the market stands. Knowing which ones could change tomorrow is what gives buyers an advantage. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 13th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | October 12th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, October 12th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: John Tyson got a laugh this week when asked why he couldn't bankroll Arkansas football like Cody Campbell. "He's got oil, and I've got chickens." As a die-hard Oklahoma State Cowboy, that one hit home. We had our own oilman in T. Boone Pickens. Money can build a program. Commitment builds a legacy. The protein industry understands that. Capital opens doors, but margins, discipline, and execution determine who stays competitive. Go Pokes.

HOST: Friday's Choice cutout fell a dollar fifty to three seventy-three thirty-five. Select gained two fifty-seven. Fresh nineties were three ninety-six ninety-two. Weekly cattle slaughter was five hundred thirty-one thousand, down three point seven percent. Year-to-date is down seven point four percent. December live cattle settled at two twenty-seven. November feeders at three forty-one ninety-five. Expanded lean-beef import access has yet to deliver noticeable retail price relief. Separate fed beef, cow beef and imported grinding inputs.

SHAWN: Pork cutout gained eighty-six cents Friday to eighty fifty, but the five-day average was down three seventy-two on the week. Bellies averaged ninety seventy-seven, down on the week. Chicken breasts averaged one eighteen. Thighs one sixty-eight. Projected broiler production is up. Wasdy raised corn yield to one eighty-one point two. December corn settled at four eighty, down twenty and a half cents. Meal went the other way, up eight dollars. Friday changed the grain balance sheet, not the protein supply equation. Lower input costs create possibilities. They don't guarantee lower purchase prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | October 12th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 12th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: John Tyson got a laugh this week when asked why he couldn't bankroll Arkansas football like Cody Campbell, the Texas Tech oilman and major Red Raiders booster. "He's got oil, and I've got chickens." As a die-hard Oklahoma State Cowboy, that one hit home. We had our own oilman in T. Boone Pickens, and I sure wish he were still around. We've endured some lean years since Boone's passing, so seeing the Pokes back in the Top 25 makes this one a little sweeter. College football has become big business. NIL, transfer portals, and multimillion-dollar rosters have changed the game. But spending money and building something sustainable aren't necessarily the same thing. The protein industry understands that lesson. Capital opens doors, but margins, discipline, and execution determine who stays competitive. Boone understood the value of investing in something you believe in. Money can build a program. Commitment builds a legacy. Go Pokes.

HOST: Friday's October Wasdy reset the grain outlook. Corn futures fell sharply while feeder cattle rallied, but the protein supply equation remains uneven. Cattle availability is constrained, pork weakened on a weekly basis, and broiler production is forecast to expand. The margin challenge differs by protein. Tight cattle supplies favor producers while restricting packer utilization. Pork depends increasingly on export markets, and chicken must balance production growth with profitable demand. For buyers, the opportunity is understanding where those economic pressures create leverage, and where they don't.

SHAWN: Friday's Choice cutout declined a dollar fifty to three seventy-three thirty-five. Select gained two fifty-seven to three fifty-four thirty. The Choice Select spread narrowed to nineteen oh five. Heavy boneless Choice ribeyes averaged fifteen eighty-one. Meanwhile, eighty-one percent ground beef averaged three forty-seven seventy-two. Daily fresh nineties were three ninety-six ninety-two. Fresh fifties were ninety-four twelve. The weekly fresh nineties average was three ninety-eight eighty. Premium middle meats and grinding components are not moving as one market. Different specifications create different buying opportunities. Weekly cattle slaughter totaled an estimated five hundred thirty-one thousand head, down three point seven percent. Year-to-date slaughter reached twenty-one point oh eight eight million, down seven point four percent. Projected 2026 beef production was reduced seventy-five million pounds to twenty-four point eight oh two billion. December live cattle settled Friday at two twenty-seven, up three fifty. November feeders gained seven oh seven five to three forty-one ninety-five. Expensive cattle and underutilized packing capacity continue to squeeze processing economics. An important distinction: the frequently cited eighty-five percent Big Four concentration figure applies to fed-cattle processing, not all cattle slaughter. The markets for fed cattle and cull cows differ significantly in processing economics, products and procurement competition. That distinction matters when evaluating consolidation, packer margins and competition for available cattle. Mexican feeder cattle entering through Douglas totaled a reported twenty-four thousand six hundred fifty since August 24th, versus twenty-five thousand three hundred fifty during the comparable 2024 period. Expanded lean-beef import access also has yet to deliver noticeable retail price relief. Approximately thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the new tariff-rate quota through September 28th, against a one hundred thousand ton first-month allowance. Not all those imports represent additional supply beyond normal trade, and retail pricing does not respond immediately to raw-material changes. Separate fed beef, cow beef and imported grinding inputs. Expanded access does not guarantee cheaper delivered beef.

HOST: Projected 2026 broiler production increased one hundred million pounds to forty-nine point seven two billion. For October 5th through 9th, boneless skinless breasts averaged one eighteen. Tenderloins one thirteen fifty. Whole wings one ten sixty. Boneless skinless thighs one sixty-eight. All four increased modestly. Drumsticks eased to fifty-three cents. Bulk leg quarters averaged fifty-three cents. Higher production forecasts do not guarantee lower wholesale prices across every cut. Proposed processing line-speed limits could rise from one hundred forty to one hundred seventy-five birds per minute, but physical infrastructure remains a constraint. One industry estimate suggests faster line speeds could add only zero to half a percentage point to annual chicken-production growth over the next three years. Additional poultry housing and processing investment would still be required. JBS is pursuing higher-value prepared proteins. Its Just Bare chicken brand surpassed a company-reported one billion dollars in annual retail sales, while a four hundred million dollar Georgia investment targets additional prepared-food capacity. Sausage and bacon investments in Iowa extend that strategy into pork. The opportunity is not simply producing more protein. It is capturing more value through convenience, branding and product differentiation. Negotiate commodity chicken independently of prepared-food growth. Additional capacity and profitable supply expansion are not the same thing.

SHAWN: Friday's daily pork cutout gained eighty-six cents to eighty fifty. Bellies increased six eighty-one to eighty-nine twenty-seven, while hams rose forty-six cents to sixty-nine twenty-nine. The five-day cutout averaged eighty-two thirty-four, down three seventy-two from the preceding week. Hams averaged seventy-two oh four, down nine fifty-six. Bellies averaged ninety seventy-seven, down three eighty-four. Friday's recovery did not reverse the weaker weekly trend. Estimated weekly hog slaughter reached two point six two seven million head, up one point eight percent. Projected 2026 pork production was reduced one hundred fifty million pounds to twenty-seven point six two one billion. December lean hogs settled Friday at sixty-seven eighty-three, down seventy-eight cents. August pork exports totaled a reported two hundred twenty-two thousand two hundred forty-three metric tons, down six percent, while value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. When domestic demand fails to absorb available production, export markets become more important to processor margins. But export weakness does not affect every primal equally. Evaluate ham, belly and trim commitments separately. Softer weekly values create opportunities, but Friday's rebound warrants discipline.

HOST: October Wasdy raised projected corn yield from one hundred seventy-eight point five to one hundred eighty-one point two bushels an acre. Production climbed two hundred thirty-four million bushels to sixteen point oh three four billion, while projected ending stocks increased two hundred eighty-two million to one point eight four nine billion. December corn settled Friday at four eighty, down twenty and a half cents. December soybean meal moved the opposite direction, gaining eight dollars to three sixty-five sixty. Projected soybean production increased to four point five six two billion bushels, with ending stocks at three hundred fifteen million. Corn's decline improves potential feed economics, but ration costs still depend on meal, cash basis, freight and existing coverage. Reprice corn exposure against delivered ration costs before assuming improved finished-protein economics. CONAB reports October 15th. The next Wasdy is November 10th. New World screwworm surveillance remains central to Mexican cattle movements. Reopened crossings have not restored unrestricted feeder access. HPAI was confirmed in two Washington dairy herds. Biosecurity vigilance remains important, although no commercial meat-supply disruption has been established from those detections. For protein buyers, the immediate concern is operational continuity. Border restrictions, animal-health controls and livestock availability remain interconnected procurement risks.

SHAWN: What I'm watching. Corn's response to Friday's Wasdy selloff. Monday's cattle and hog futures. The divergence between premium beef and grinding inputs. Whether pork's late-week recovery holds. Also whether expanded beef import access produces measurable wholesale or retail price relief, and how quickly chicken processors can translate investment into actual production. Procurement radar. Beef: price fed beef, cow beef and grinding components independently. Monitor imported lean availability and packer utilization. Chicken: compare cuts individually. Do not price in line-speed gains before physical capacity expands. Pork: evaluate ham and belly coverage against export exposure and the weaker weekly market. Feed: reassess corn coverage using delivered ration economics, not futures alone. Friday changed the grain balance sheet, not the protein supply equation. Expensive cattle and underused packing capacity challenge beef margins. Pork needs stronger demand to absorb production. Chicken's path runs through disciplined capacity growth and higher-value products. Buy each protein against its supply, demand and margin pressures, not a single feed-cost signal. Lower input costs create possibilities. They don't guarantee lower purchase prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse,...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE

Monday Market Open | October 12th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 12th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: John Tyson got a laugh this week when asked why he couldn't bankroll Arkansas football like Cody Campbell, the Texas Tech oilman and major Red Raiders booster. "He's got oil, and I've got chickens." As a die-hard Oklahoma State Cowboy, that one hit home. We had our own oilman in T. Boone Pickens, and I sure wish he were still around. We've endured some lean years since Boone's passing, so seeing the Pokes back in the Top 25 makes this one a little sweeter. College football has become big business. NIL, transfer portals, and multimillion-dollar rosters have changed the game. But spending money and building something sustainable aren't necessarily the same thing. The protein industry understands that lesson. Capital opens doors, but margins, discipline, and execution determine who stays competitive. Boone understood the value of investing in something you believe in. Money can build a program. Commitment builds a legacy. Go Pokes.

HOST: Friday's October Wasdy reset the grain outlook. Corn futures fell sharply while feeder cattle rallied, but the protein supply equation remains uneven. Cattle availability is constrained, pork weakened on a weekly basis, and broiler production is forecast to expand. The margin challenge differs by protein. Tight cattle supplies favor producers while restricting packer utilization. Pork depends increasingly on export markets, and chicken must balance production growth with profitable demand. For buyers, the opportunity is understanding where those economic pressures create leverage, and where they don't.

SHAWN: Friday's Choice cutout declined a dollar fifty to three seventy-three thirty-five. Select gained two fifty-seven to three fifty-four thirty. The Choice Select spread narrowed to nineteen oh five. Heavy boneless Choice ribeyes averaged fifteen eighty-one. Meanwhile, eighty-one percent ground beef averaged three forty-seven seventy-two. Daily fresh nineties were three ninety-six ninety-two. Fresh fifties were ninety-four twelve. The weekly fresh nineties average was three ninety-eight eighty. Premium middle meats and grinding components are not moving as one market. Different specifications create different buying opportunities. Weekly cattle slaughter totaled an estimated five hundred thirty-one thousand head, down three point seven percent. Year-to-date slaughter reached twenty-one point oh eight eight million, down seven point four percent. Projected 2026 beef production was reduced seventy-five million pounds to twenty-four point eight oh two billion. December live cattle settled Friday at two twenty-seven, up three fifty. November feeders gained seven oh seven five to three forty-one ninety-five. Expensive cattle and underutilized packing capacity continue to squeeze processing economics. An important distinction: the frequently cited eighty-five percent Big Four concentration figure applies to fed-cattle processing, not all cattle slaughter. The markets for fed cattle and cull cows differ significantly in processing economics, products and procurement competition. That distinction matters when evaluating consolidation, packer margins and competition for available cattle. Mexican feeder cattle entering through Douglas totaled a reported twenty-four thousand six hundred fifty since August 24th, versus twenty-five thousand three hundred fifty during the comparable 2024 period. Expanded lean-beef import access also has yet to deliver noticeable retail price relief. Approximately thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons entered under the new tariff-rate quota through September 28th, against a one hundred thousand ton first-month allowance. Not all those imports represent additional supply beyond normal trade, and retail pricing does not respond immediately to raw-material changes. Separate fed beef, cow beef and imported grinding inputs. Expanded access does not guarantee cheaper delivered beef.

HOST: Projected 2026 broiler production increased one hundred million pounds to forty-nine point seven two billion. For October 5th through 9th, boneless skinless breasts averaged one eighteen. Tenderloins one thirteen fifty. Whole wings one ten sixty. Boneless skinless thighs one sixty-eight. All four increased modestly. Drumsticks eased to fifty-three cents. Bulk leg quarters averaged fifty-three cents. Higher production forecasts do not guarantee lower wholesale prices across every cut. Proposed processing line-speed limits could rise from one hundred forty to one hundred seventy-five birds per minute, but physical infrastructure remains a constraint. One industry estimate suggests faster line speeds could add only zero to half a percentage point to annual chicken-production growth over the next three years. Additional poultry housing and processing investment would still be required. JBS is pursuing higher-value prepared proteins. Its Just Bare chicken brand surpassed a company-reported one billion dollars in annual retail sales, while a four hundred million dollar Georgia investment targets additional prepared-food capacity. Sausage and bacon investments in Iowa extend that strategy into pork. The opportunity is not simply producing more protein. It is capturing more value through convenience, branding and product differentiation. Negotiate commodity chicken independently of prepared-food growth. Additional capacity and profitable supply expansion are not the same thing.

SHAWN: Friday's daily pork cutout gained eighty-six cents to eighty fifty. Bellies increased six eighty-one to eighty-nine twenty-seven, while hams rose forty-six cents to sixty-nine twenty-nine. The five-day cutout averaged eighty-two thirty-four, down three seventy-two from the preceding week. Hams averaged seventy-two oh four, down nine fifty-six. Bellies averaged ninety seventy-seven, down three eighty-four. Friday's recovery did not reverse the weaker weekly trend. Estimated weekly hog slaughter reached two point six two seven million head, up one point eight percent. Projected 2026 pork production was reduced one hundred fifty million pounds to twenty-seven point six two one billion. December lean hogs settled Friday at sixty-seven eighty-three, down seventy-eight cents. August pork exports totaled a reported two hundred twenty-two thousand two hundred forty-three metric tons, down six percent, while value fell twelve percent to six hundred six million dollars. When domestic demand fails to absorb available production, export markets become more important to processor margins. But export weakness does not affect every primal equally. Evaluate ham, belly and trim commitments separately. Softer weekly values create opportunities, but Friday's rebound warrants discipline.

HOST: October Wasdy raised projected corn yield from one hundred seventy-eight point five to one hundred eighty-one point two bushels an acre. Production climbed two hundred thirty-four million bushels to sixteen point oh three four billion, while projected ending stocks increased two hundred eighty-two million to one point eight four nine billion. December corn settled Friday at four eighty, down twenty and a half cents. December soybean meal moved the opposite direction, gaining eight dollars to three sixty-five sixty. Projected soybean production increased to four point five six two billion bushels, with ending stocks at three hundred fifteen million. Corn's decline improves potential feed economics, but ration costs still depend on meal, cash basis, freight and existing coverage. Reprice corn exposure against delivered ration costs before assuming improved finished-protein economics. CONAB reports October 15th. The next Wasdy is November 10th. New World screwworm surveillance remains central to Mexican cattle movements. Reopened crossings have not restored unrestricted feeder access. HPAI was confirmed in two Washington dairy herds. Biosecurity vigilance remains important, although no commercial meat-supply disruption has been established from those detections. For protein buyers, the immediate concern is operational continuity. Border restrictions, animal-health controls and livestock availability remain interconnected procurement risks.

SHAWN: What I'm watching. Corn's response to Friday's Wasdy selloff. Monday's cattle and hog futures. The divergence between premium beef and grinding inputs. Whether pork's late-week recovery holds. Also whether expanded beef import access produces measurable wholesale or retail price relief, and how quickly chicken processors can translate investment into actual production. Procurement radar. Beef: price fed beef, cow beef and grinding components independently. Monitor imported lean availability and packer utilization. Chicken: compare cuts individually. Do not price in line-speed gains before physical capacity expands. Pork: evaluate ham and belly coverage against export exposure and the weaker weekly market. Feed: reassess corn coverage using delivered ration economics, not futures alone. Friday changed the grain balance sheet, not the protein supply equation. Expensive cattle and underused packing capacity challenge beef margins. Pork needs stronger demand to absorb production. Chicken's path runs through disciplined capacity growth and higher-value products. Buy each protein against its supply, demand and margin pressures, not a single feed-cost signal. Lower input costs create possibilities. They don't guarantee lower purchase prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Monday Market Open for October 12th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

WASDE Special Report | October 9th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. A Wasdy special for October 9th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA just added 282 million bushels to projected corn ending stocks while cutting beef and pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. That's the disconnect. Corn yield jumped to 181.2 bushels an acre. Meal stays at $340 a ton. Cattle supplies remain constrained, pork expectations are slipping, and chicken continues adding pounds. The benefit of cheaper corn won't move through the complex at the same speed. Poultry can respond relatively quickly. Cattle production cannot. The market just repriced corn. It hasn't repriced the biology of cattle production.

HOST: Corn ending stocks are 1.849 billion bushels. Stocks-to-use is 11.3 percent. The farm price is $4.70, down 10 cents. For 2027, beef drops 160 million pounds. Pork drops 245 million. Broilers rise 150 million. USDA cut 2027 pork exports 95 million pounds and lowered the hog price forecast from $64 to $63, even with less production. Chicken is the only major protein with upward revisions for both years.

SHAWN: Better feed economics and improved fed-cattle availability are two different propositions. Imported lean can help the grind. It cannot replace domestic fed cattle. Monitor the cutout and export demand before extending pork commitments on tighter production alone. Lower feed costs can improve production economics without automatically lowering finished protein prices. The feed cushion is growing. The red meat cushion isn't. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

WASDE Special Report | October 9th, 2026

Full Executive Briefing — Spoken Script

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your daily market update on all things protein. This is a special report for October 9th, 2026. More feed. Less red meat. A different margin equation for 2027. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA just added 282 million bushels to projected corn ending stocks while cutting beef and pork production forecasts for both 2026 and 2027. That's the disconnect worth paying attention to. Corn yield jumped to 181.2 bushels per acre, surprising the trade and pressuring futures. Soybean production increased, but meal remains forecast at $340 per ton. Feed economics are shifting, but not evenly. Meanwhile, cattle supplies remain constrained, pork production expectations are slipping, and chicken continues adding pounds. The benefit of cheaper corn won't move through the protein complex at the same speed. Poultry can respond relatively quickly. Cattle production cannot. For procurement, the question isn't simply whether feed gets cheaper. It's who captures the margin improvement and whether those savings ever reach finished protein prices. Remember, the market just repriced corn. It hasn't repriced the biology of cattle production.

HOST: October Wasdy delivered a larger corn supply outlook, expanded ending stocks, and lower red meat production forecasts. Corn stocks-to-use increased to 11.3 percent, while soybean meal remained at $340 per short ton. USDA reduced projected 2027 beef and pork production by a combined 405 million pounds from September while increasing broiler production 150 million. The signal: feed availability is improving, but the supply and margin outlook differs significantly across the protein complex.

SHAWN: Corn yield is 181.2 bushels an acre, up 2.7. Production is 16.034 billion bushels, up 234 million. Ending stocks are 1.849 billion, up 282 million. Stocks-to-use is 11.3 percent, up 1.6 points. The farm price is $4.70 a bushel, down 10 cents. Soybean production is 4.562 billion bushels, up 27 million. Ending stocks are 315 million, up 5 million. Meal is unchanged at $340 a short ton. On the protein side for 2027, beef drops 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Pork drops 245 million to 27.825 billion. Broilers rise 150 million to 50.150 billion.

HOST: USDA raised corn production to 16.034 billion bushels, increasing yield from 178.5 to 181.2 without changing harvested acreage. The forecast exceeded pre-report trade expectations and triggered substantial selling pressure in corn futures. Beginning inventories increased 173 million bushels following September's Grain Stocks report. Projected ending stocks climbed 282 million bushels to 1.849 billion. Stocks-to-use rose from 9.7 percent to 11.3 percent. That's a meaningful improvement in supply coverage, not necessarily an excessive inventory position. USDA also raised total corn use 125 million bushels, including higher feed, ethanol, and export expectations. Reuters highlighted questions surrounding historical feed-and-residual estimates relative to livestock inventories. Feed and residual includes statistical adjustments. It isn't a direct measure of livestock consumption. The larger corn cushion creates opportunities to reassess forward coverage, but buyers should evaluate local basis, freight, and delivered costs before assuming futures weakness will translate directly into cheaper feed.

SHAWN: USDA increased soybean production 27 million bushels to 4.562 billion, with yields rising to 53.1 bushels an acre. Ending stocks increased only 5 million bushels to 315 million as exports were revised higher. Projected crush remained unchanged at 2.780 billion bushels. More important for livestock producers, soybean meal remained forecast at $340 per short ton. Soybean oil held at 70 cents a pound, with biofuel use unchanged at 17.8 billion pounds. A larger soybean crop does not automatically translate into lower meal costs. Crush economics, oil demand, exports, and local availability remain important pricing variables.

HOST: USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial beef production 75 million pounds to 24.802 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 160 million pounds to 24.675 billion. Lower expected steer and heifer slaughter, lighter carcass weights, and reduced feedlot placements continue limiting production expectations. For 2027, USDA specifically anticipates slower first-quarter marketings following lower-than-expected placements during the second half of 2026. Improved feed economics can support cattle feeders, but tight finished-cattle availability may continue pressuring packer procurement costs and plant utilization. USDA increased projected 2026 beef imports by 85 million pounds to 6.347 billion, supported by stronger Australian shipments. The 2027 import forecast increased 125 million pounds to 6.175 billion. Additional imported lean beef can support grinding operations but cannot replace domestic fed cattle or eliminate middle-meat supply constraints. USDA maintained its 2027 steer price projection at $238 per hundredweight. Preserve imported lean alternatives while protecting domestic beef coverage. Better feed economics and improved fed-cattle availability are two different propositions.

SHAWN: USDA reduced projected 2026 commercial pork production 150 million pounds to 27.621 billion. The 2027 forecast declined 245 million pounds to 27.825 billion. The reductions reflect slower slaughter expectations, lighter weights, and smaller pig-crop and farrowing projections. Export expectations also weakened. USDA reduced projected 2027 pork exports 95 million pounds to 7.095 billion. Despite lower production, USDA reduced its 2027 hog price forecast from $64 to $63 per hundredweight, citing persistent pork cutout weakness. That's the disconnect. Reduced supply doesn't guarantee stronger prices when product demand and export movement fail to support wholesale values. Lower corn costs could improve finishing economics without necessarily restoring producer margins. Monitor cutout performance, individual primal values, and export demand before extending commitments based solely on tighter production projections.

HOST: USDA increased projected 2026 broiler production 100 million pounds to 49.720 billion. The 2027 forecast increased 150 million pounds to 50.150 billion. Chicken remains the only major protein among beef, pork, and broilers receiving upward production revisions for both years. Stronger slaughter and hatchery expectations support the expansion, while improved corn availability offers potential feed-cost relief. But greater production also increases the volume that must move through domestic and export channels. USDA lowered its 2027 wholesale broiler price forecast from 122 to 121 cents a pound. Chicken continues presenting substitution opportunities for price-sensitive retail and foodservice programs. However, greater supplies and potentially lower feed costs do not guarantee uniform price declines across individual cuts.

SHAWN: Global corn ending stocks increased 8.34 million metric tons to 280.44 million, largely reflecting higher U.S. supplies. European Union corn production declined to 48 million metric tons. Global soybean ending stocks increased modestly to 124.28 million metric tons. China's projected soybean imports remained unchanged at 115 million metric tons. Increased Australian beef shipments support higher U.S. import forecasts, while weaker Western Hemisphere demand contributes to lower U.S. pork export expectations. Larger domestic grain supplies don't eliminate international sourcing risks, freight costs, or competition for protein.

HOST: What I'm watching. Corn: forward coverage opportunities against larger ending stocks and basis risk. Soybean meal: meal values independent of the corn-market reaction. Beef: feedlot placements, Australian lean imports, and packer utilization. Pork: cutout performance, export movement, and primal-specific pricing. Chicken: expanding production relative to seasonal demand and forward offers. Margins: where feed-cost savings accumulate before reaching wholesale protein prices.

SHAWN: October Wasdy improved the corn supply outlook without improving the underlying domestic red meat production outlook. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Pork faces reduced production expectations alongside weak product values. Chicken continues expanding and may capture feed-cost benefits more quickly than the other major proteins. Those differences matter more to procurement than the grain headline alone. Lower feed costs can improve production economics without automatically lowering finished protein prices. The feed cushion is growing. The red meat cushion isn't. And that's the margin equation heading into 2027. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, a Wasdy special report for October 9th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | October 9th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 9th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We spend a lot of time talking about cattle numbers, plant capacity, and margins. Those numbers matter. But none of it works without the people showing up every day to keep these plants running. Recent immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas disrupted staffing and cattle movements in an already strained beef supply chain. Immigration policy deserves serious discussion, but so does the economic reality of losing experienced workers overnight. Roughly five hundred sixty thousand people work in U.S. meat and poultry processing. Manufacturing overall could face nearly two million unfilled positions by 2033. That's not a meatpacking forecast, but it should get our attention. We're already dealing with tight cattle supplies, expensive production, and pressure on margins. Adding workforce uncertainty only makes a difficult business harder. We can debate immigration policy all day, but we still have to keep the plants running. Remember, you can't build a dependable protein supply chain with an undependable workforce.

HOST: Executive summary. Tight cattle supplies are no longer telling the entire beef pricing story. Boxed beef softened Thursday while imported lean availability expanded sharply, creating a different set of economics for ground-beef buyers. Pork continues moving lower, led by bellies, while chicken remains comparatively steady. The divergence presents selective procurement opportunities rather than a broad signal to extend coverage. Friday's Wasdy could reset feed-cost expectations. The key question is whether larger grain inventories outweigh slightly smaller crop estimates.

SHAWN: Domestic cattle supplies remain historically constrained. USDA estimates year-to-date slaughter at twenty point nine eight million head, down seven point five percent. Thursday's slaughter totaled one hundred one thousand head, compared with one hundred thirteen thousand a year earlier. Heavier cattle are partially offsetting reduced headcount. The latest five-area weighted average live steer weight reached one thousand five hundred ninety-eight pounds, up sixty-seven pounds year over year. Choice boxed beef declined seventy-seven cents Thursday to three seventy-four eighty-five. Select fell two forty-eight to three fifty-one seventy-three. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-three twelve. CattleNomics estimated feeder-to-finish losses of three hundred eighty-seven dollars a head, while showing a positive packer gross operating margin of five hundred forty-seven. Both are model estimates, and gross operating margin is not net profit.

HOST: The bigger development for procurement is imported lean. USDA's October 9th entry report showed twenty thousand nine hundred twenty-seven metric tons of imported beef trimmings for the week ending October 3rd, up seven point eight percent from the preceding week and eighty-five percent above last year. Australia supplied forty-one point five percent of the total, with shipments increasing twenty-four percent week over week. Import volumes have now increased for three consecutive weeks. Platts reports the market is struggling to absorb arrivals during a seasonally slower demand period. Imported frozen nineties assessed at three nineteen, C-I-F East Coast, and three oh five, F-C-A East Coast, on October 8th, compared with about four oh two for the latest reported domestic fresh nineties on October 7th. Those values reflect different product conditions and delivery bases, not an immediately interchangeable discount. For grinding-beef buyers, the opportunity is meaningful. More imported lean can change blend economics even when domestic cattle remain scarce.

SHAWN: Chicken remains the most stable of the three major protein markets entering Friday. USDA's October 8th broiler report described boneless skinless breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat as generally steady. Smaller whole birds faced weaker bids, with good overall supplies and moderate export activity. Year-to-date young chicken slaughter reached seven point five billion birds, up one point three percent. That production growth provides more supply flexibility than the cattle market, but price direction still depends on cut, size, processing requirements, and delivery period. For buyers, there's little reason to manufacture urgency in a steady market.

HOST: Pork's weakness is becoming more pronounced. The carcass cutout declined to seventy-nine sixty-four Thursday, down two oh seven on the day and six thirty-seven from Monday's eighty-six oh one. Bellies led the decline, dropping seven forty-five to eighty-two forty-six. Loins fell one ninety. Hams declined two oh seven. Picnics gained two thirty-eight. The five-day average cutout remained at eighty-three fourteen, illustrating how quickly the latest market has moved lower. Seventy-two trim was seventy-five cents. Forty-two trim was fifty-nine cents. Unlike cattle, hog supplies remain relatively close to year-ago levels. Year-to-date slaughter is down about one percent. Steiner identified August as the third consecutive month of declining year-over-year pork exports. USDA's September forecast still required about three percent export growth in the final four months to reach its annual projection. Lower wholesale values create opportunities, particularly for buyers with flexible coverage. But declining cutouts do not guarantee that every supplier offer has adjusted.

SHAWN: International demand continues separating beef from pork. August beef export volume increased four percent, while value climbed thirteen percent to seven hundred eighty-six million dollars. South Korea and Taiwan provided support, although cumulative beef export volume remained seven percent below last year. Pork moved the opposite direction. August export volume fell six percent and value declined twelve. Mexico remained the leading destination, about forty-one percent of monthly U.S. pork exports, despite a twelve percent decline in shipments. Beef export values are holding up better than volumes. Pork faces weaker recent international demand.

HOST: Friday's Wasdy is scheduled for eleven a.m. Central. Analysts expect U.S. corn production of fifteen point seven two billion bushels and a yield of one hundred seventy-seven point seven, both below September. Yet projected ending stocks increased to one point six seven billion bushels, compared with September's one point five seven. The disconnect follows the September 30th grain stocks report, which revealed more than two billion bushels of old-crop corn. A smaller harvest doesn't necessarily mean tighter available supplies. Soybean estimates remain comparatively stable, with analysts projecting four point five three billion bushels of production and three hundred five million bushels of ending stocks. For protein producers, lower feed costs would help margins, but expensive cattle placements remain a separate problem. The procurement decision should follow USDA's actual numbers, not the yield headline alone.

SHAWN: National Beef's Dodge City workforce approved a five-year labor agreement covering more than two thousand five hundred employees. The agreement includes wage increases, bonuses, improved healthcare, and additional time off. Reliable staffing remains as important as physical plant capacity. A facility's theoretical throughput means little when labor availability interrupts execution. Procurement radar. Beef: revisit grinding blends. Compare approved origin, frozen versus fresh, and total delivered cost. Pork: test falling cutout and belly prices against supplier offers. Chicken: maintain discipline in a steady market. Feed: inventory revisions may matter more than modest yield changes. Operations: price means little without dependable delivery. The week's clearest wholesale move came in pork, where the cutout lost six thirty-seven between Monday and Thursday. Beef presented a different disconnect: slaughter remains seven point five percent below last year, yet Choice and Select softened while imported lean expanded. Fresh eighty-fives were three twenty-two. Fresh fifties were one oh two. National negotiated hogs seventy-two fifty-one.

HOST: Bottom line. This week reminds us that tight supply doesn't always mean higher prices, and falling prices don't automatically mean a buying opportunity. Imported lean is changing ground-beef economics despite fewer domestic cattle. Pork weakness is opening selective opportunities, while chicken remains comparatively stable. WASDE could add another advantage through feed costs. The winners won't simply be the buyers chasing the lowest quoted number. They'll be the ones who understand what they're buying, what it costs delivered, and when to commit. That's where the money is made, or lost.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Closing Bell Friday for October 9th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | October 9th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 9th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We spend a lot of time talking about cattle numbers, plant capacity, and margins. Those numbers matter. But none of it works without the people showing up every day to keep these plants running. Recent immigration enforcement in southwest Kansas disrupted staffing and cattle movements in an already strained beef supply chain. We can debate immigration policy all day, but we still have to keep the plants running. You can't build a dependable protein supply chain with an undependable workforce.

HOST: Year-to-date cattle slaughter is twenty point nine eight million head, down seven point five percent. Choice fell seventy-seven cents Thursday to three seventy-four eighty-five. Select fell two forty-eight to three fifty-one seventy-three. Imported beef trimmings jumped eighty-five percent from last year, to twenty thousand nine hundred metric tons. Imported frozen nineties assessed at three nineteen, C-I-F East Coast, and three oh five, F-C-A, against domestic fresh nineties around four oh two. Those are not interchangeable. More imported lean can still change the blend even while cattle stay scarce.

SHAWN: Pork cutout fell to seventy-nine sixty-four, down six thirty-seven from Monday. Bellies dropped seven forty-five to eighty-two forty-six. Chicken is the steady one, with year-to-date slaughter up one point three percent. WASDE is at eleven a.m. Central. Analysts see a smaller corn crop, but higher ending stocks. A smaller harvest doesn't necessarily mean tighter available supplies. Tight supply doesn't always mean higher prices, and falling prices don't automatically mean a buying opportunity. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 8th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, October 8th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I think most of us know somebody dealing with alpha-gal syndrome. One tick bite, and suddenly they can't enjoy a steak, hamburger or bacon. So when I read about people receiving acupuncture treatments in their ears and reportedly eating red meat again, it caught my attention. Am I skeptical? Absolutely. I'm not convinced acupuncture is a cure, but I sure hope there's something to it. The science still has a lot to prove. But if there's a chance to put steak back on somebody's plate, I'm pulling for it.

HOST: Fresh nineties averaged four oh two. South American frozen nineties were indicated around three oh five to three twelve, a ninety to ninety-seven cent gap. Some formulations still limit frozen product to fifteen or twenty percent. Cheaper imports can pressure the market. They can't replace every fresh pound. Eighty-fives three forty-three. Fifties eighty-seven cents. Choice cutout fell three thirty-one to three seventy-five sixty-two. Select fell two thirteen. Sterling has feedlots losing about three hundred forty a head and packers making about one hundred eighty-four. Same cattle market. Very different margins.

SHAWN: Prime tonnage is up about twenty-five percent, and the Prime premium over Choice widened to thirty-eight thirty-four. Chicken thighs firmed while breast, wings and tenderloins weakened. Hog slaughter was four hundred ninety-five thousand. The pork cutout fell two thirteen to eighty-one seventy-one, with bellies down six sixty-four. Farrow-to-finish margins narrowed to about nineteen dollars a head. Brazil has hit China's quota wall, and another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. quota opened October 1st. December corn five oh two. Meal three sixty-five eighty, up eleven dollars. November West Texas Crude eighty-eight twenty-eight, down a dollar sixteen. Scarcity still sets the cost of cattle. Competition determines what buyers will pay for the beef. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 8th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 8th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I think most of us know somebody dealing with alpha-gal syndrome. One tick bite, and suddenly they can't enjoy a steak, hamburger or bacon. So when I read about people receiving acupuncture treatments in their ears and reportedly eating red meat again, it caught my attention. Am I skeptical? Absolutely. I'm not convinced acupuncture is a cure, but I sure hope there's something to it. Think about somebody who's been told they'll never eat red meat again, possibly getting to enjoy a steak with their family. The science still has a lot to prove. But if there's a chance to put steak back on somebody's plate, I'm pulling for it.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle remain scarce, but boxed beef and processing trim are weakening. Sterling Marketing estimates feedlot losses exceeding three hundred forty dollars a head, while packer margins approach one hundred eighty-five. Domestic fresh nineties have fallen to four oh two, while imported frozen lean remains substantially cheaper. Formulation limits, however, keep domestic fresh beef essential to the grind. Pork faces heavier slaughter, rising hog weights and shrinking margins. Chicken production continues expanding, with prices moving differently across parts. Corn declined Wednesday while soybean meal rallied ahead of Friday's WASDE.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties averaged four oh two Wednesday. Recent South American imported frozen nineties were indicated around three oh five to three twelve. That's a ninety to ninety-seven cent gap. But some ground-beef formulations limit frozen ingredients to about fifteen to twenty percent. Cheaper imports can improve blend economics, but they can't replace every fresh pound. That helps explain why grinders continue buying domestic fresh lean despite substantial import discounts. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three forty-three. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-seven cents. USDA described lean boneless beef as steady to weak and beef trimmings as sharply lower on light demand. The cattle shortage remains real. But imported lean, cheaper fat trim and changing blend economics are giving buyers more options. Cheaper imports can pressure the market. They can't replace every fresh pound.

HOST: Wednesday afternoon Choice cutout declined three thirty-one to three seventy-five sixty-two. Select fell two thirteen to three fifty-four twenty-one. The Choice Select spread narrowed to twenty-one forty-one. December live cattle settled at two twenty-three seventy-eight, down thirty-three cents. November feeder cattle declined two forty-eight to three thirty-five eighty. Negotiated cash trade remains limited. USDA's five-area report captured only three hundred thirty-seven head from Tuesday's activity. Tight cattle supplies continue supporting upstream costs, but downstream beef prices are encountering resistance. Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot margins at a loss of three hundred forty dollars a head for the week ending October 3rd, the weakest modeled result since January 2016. Estimated beef packer margins reached a gain of one hundred eighty-four a head, their strongest since April 2022. Cattle slaughter remains seven point five percent below last year, although heavier carcasses are offsetting some of the production loss. Same cattle market. Very different margins.

SHAWN: Certified Angus Beef reports Prime carcass tonnage about twenty-five percent above last year, despite fed cattle harvest running more than seven percent lower. Yet the Prime premium over Choice widened from a summer low of eight fifty-four to thirty-eight thirty-four. Wednesday's negotiated sales included heavy Choice boneless ribeyes at sixteen forty-four, trimmed tenderloins at sixteen thirty-two, and boneless strip loins at nine seventy-four. More Prime supply hasn't eliminated the premium. Buyers should continue evaluating grade requirements, yields and alternative cuts.

HOST: Wednesday young-chicken slaughter totaled thirty-five point one million head. Year to date slaughter reached about seven point four seven billion, up one point three percent. Boneless skinless thighs averaged one fifty-five, up about six cents on the month. Breast line run one oh four, down about twelve cents. Whole wings one ten, down about twelve. Tenderloins one thirteen, down about six. Breast meat, wings and tenderloins weakened, while thighs moved higher. Buyers with flexible formulations should evaluate opportunities in weaker categories without assuming all chicken prices will follow the same direction. Chicken supply is growing. Value still depends on the part.

SHAWN: Wednesday hog slaughter totaled four hundred ninety-five thousand head, compared with four hundred seventy-nine thousand a week earlier. Week to date slaughter reached one point four eight two million. Iowa and Southern Minnesota hog weights averaged two ninety point two pounds, up from two eighty-nine point two the previous week. National negotiated barrows and gilts declined three thirty to seventy-two forty-four. The afternoon pork cutout fell two thirteen to eighty-one seventy-one. Bellies eighty-nine ninety-one, down six sixty-four. Hams seventy ninety, down two seventy-four. Picnics fifty-nine eighty-nine, down one eighty-one. Loins eighty-three twenty-five, down one oh eight. December lean hogs settled at sixty-nine ten, down a dollar twenty-eight. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish margins at a gain of eighteen eighty-four a head, compared with twenty-seven thirty-four the previous week and sixty-nine ninety-six a year ago. Estimated pork packer margins improved slightly to eight seventy-eight a head, with plant utilization near ninety-six percent. The producer benchmark remains positive, but the cushion has narrowed substantially. Pork doesn't have a production problem. It has a clearing problem.

HOST: High beef prices don't necessarily make consumers stop eating beef. They change how consumers and retailers buy it. Retailers adjust package sizes and cuts. Foodservice operators change portions and menu specifications. Further processors reformulate when possible. Pork and chicken remain alternatives for price-conscious buyers. The industry doesn't need consumers to abandon beef for price competition to matter. Scarcity sets the supply. The consumer still has a choice. August U.S. beef exports totaled eighty-six thousand three hundred sixty-two metric tons, up four percent. Export value increased thirteen percent to seven hundred eighty-six million dollars. Year to date beef exports remained seven percent below last year by volume. Excluding China, volume declined only one percent, while value increased six. August pork exports totaled two hundred twenty-two thousand metric tons, down six percent, while value declined twelve percent to six hundred six million. Mexico's softer demand contributed. Year to date pork export volume remained one percent higher.

SHAWN: Brazil exhausted its one point one oh six million metric ton beef quota into China. Since October 1st, above-quota shipments face an additional fifty-five percent tariff, bringing the total duty to sixty-seven percent. Meanwhile, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries beef quota opened October 1st, alongside a separate twenty thousand metric ton Argentine allocation. That creates more competition for U.S. lean-beef buyers as Brazil searches for alternative markets. Brazil has more beef to place. U.S. buyers have more options. Fresh domestic nineties still matter because formulation limits protect demand for fresh lean. South American nineties near three oh five to three twelve offer savings where frozen-content specifications permit. Fifties at eighty-seven cents improve blend economics. Hams and bellies weakened sharply. Chicken should be bought by the part. Friday's WASDE is the checkpoint. The cheapest quoted pound isn't always the lowest-cost pound in the formulation.

HOST: USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service plans expanded environmental Listeria sampling at ready-to-eat establishments beginning in early 2027. FSIS is also pursuing additional raw pork Salmonella sampling. For processors, sanitation verification, documentation and environmental controls remain priorities. December corn settled at five oh two, down six cents. November soybeans twelve ninety-eight, down five and a half cents. December soybean meal three sixty-five eighty, up eleven dollars. USDA releases the October WASDE Friday, October 9th, at eleven a.m. Central. The pre-report survey looks for corn production of fifteen point seven three billion bushels, a yield of one hundred seventy-seven point eight, and ending stocks of one point six nine billion. September stocks identified about one hundred seventy-three million additional bushels of old-crop corn. The corn crop may be smaller. The available supply may not be. November West Texas Crude settled at eighty-eight twenty-eight, down a dollar sixteen. Lower crude futures may eventually provide some relief, but diesel and freight costs won't necessarily adjust at the same pace. Wednesday slaughter: cattle one hundred eight thousand, year to date down seven point five percent. Hogs four hundred ninety-five thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point one million, up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Cattle remain scarce, but buyers have more options in boxed beef and processing trim. Imported frozen lean adds competitive pressure even as formulation limits...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Thursday Margin Monitor | October 8th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 8th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I think most of us know somebody dealing with alpha-gal syndrome. One tick bite, and suddenly they can't enjoy a steak, hamburger or bacon. So when I read about people receiving acupuncture treatments in their ears and reportedly eating red meat again, it caught my attention. Am I skeptical? Absolutely. I'm not convinced acupuncture is a cure, but I sure hope there's something to it. Think about somebody who's been told they'll never eat red meat again, possibly getting to enjoy a steak with their family. The science still has a lot to prove. But if there's a chance to put steak back on somebody's plate, I'm pulling for it.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle remain scarce, but boxed beef and processing trim are weakening. Sterling Marketing estimates feedlot losses exceeding three hundred forty dollars a head, while packer margins approach one hundred eighty-five. Domestic fresh nineties have fallen to four oh two, while imported frozen lean remains substantially cheaper. Formulation limits, however, keep domestic fresh beef essential to the grind. Pork faces heavier slaughter, rising hog weights and shrinking margins. Chicken production continues expanding, with prices moving differently across parts. Corn declined Wednesday while soybean meal rallied ahead of Friday's WASDE.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties averaged four oh two Wednesday. Recent South American imported frozen nineties were indicated around three oh five to three twelve. That's a ninety to ninety-seven cent gap. But some ground-beef formulations limit frozen ingredients to about fifteen to twenty percent. Cheaper imports can improve blend economics, but they can't replace every fresh pound. That helps explain why grinders continue buying domestic fresh lean despite substantial import discounts. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three forty-three. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-seven cents. USDA described lean boneless beef as steady to weak and beef trimmings as sharply lower on light demand. The cattle shortage remains real. But imported lean, cheaper fat trim and changing blend economics are giving buyers more options. Cheaper imports can pressure the market. They can't replace every fresh pound.

HOST: Wednesday afternoon Choice cutout declined three thirty-one to three seventy-five sixty-two. Select fell two thirteen to three fifty-four twenty-one. The Choice Select spread narrowed to twenty-one forty-one. December live cattle settled at two twenty-three seventy-eight, down thirty-three cents. November feeder cattle declined two forty-eight to three thirty-five eighty. Negotiated cash trade remains limited. USDA's five-area report captured only three hundred thirty-seven head from Tuesday's activity. Tight cattle supplies continue supporting upstream costs, but downstream beef prices are encountering resistance. Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot margins at a loss of three hundred forty dollars a head for the week ending October 3rd, the weakest modeled result since January 2016. Estimated beef packer margins reached a gain of one hundred eighty-four a head, their strongest since April 2022. Cattle slaughter remains seven point five percent below last year, although heavier carcasses are offsetting some of the production loss. Same cattle market. Very different margins.

SHAWN: Certified Angus Beef reports Prime carcass tonnage about twenty-five percent above last year, despite fed cattle harvest running more than seven percent lower. Yet the Prime premium over Choice widened from a summer low of eight fifty-four to thirty-eight thirty-four. Wednesday's negotiated sales included heavy Choice boneless ribeyes at sixteen forty-four, trimmed tenderloins at sixteen thirty-two, and boneless strip loins at nine seventy-four. More Prime supply hasn't eliminated the premium. Buyers should continue evaluating grade requirements, yields and alternative cuts.

HOST: Wednesday young-chicken slaughter totaled thirty-five point one million head. Year to date slaughter reached about seven point four seven billion, up one point three percent. Boneless skinless thighs averaged one fifty-five, up about six cents on the month. Breast line run one oh four, down about twelve cents. Whole wings one ten, down about twelve. Tenderloins one thirteen, down about six. Breast meat, wings and tenderloins weakened, while thighs moved higher. Buyers with flexible formulations should evaluate opportunities in weaker categories without assuming all chicken prices will follow the same direction. Chicken supply is growing. Value still depends on the part.

SHAWN: Wednesday hog slaughter totaled four hundred ninety-five thousand head, compared with four hundred seventy-nine thousand a week earlier. Week to date slaughter reached one point four eight two million. Iowa and Southern Minnesota hog weights averaged two ninety point two pounds, up from two eighty-nine point two the previous week. National negotiated barrows and gilts declined three thirty to seventy-two forty-four. The afternoon pork cutout fell two thirteen to eighty-one seventy-one. Bellies eighty-nine ninety-one, down six sixty-four. Hams seventy ninety, down two seventy-four. Picnics fifty-nine eighty-nine, down one eighty-one. Loins eighty-three twenty-five, down one oh eight. December lean hogs settled at sixty-nine ten, down a dollar twenty-eight. Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish margins at a gain of eighteen eighty-four a head, compared with twenty-seven thirty-four the previous week and sixty-nine ninety-six a year ago. Estimated pork packer margins improved slightly to eight seventy-eight a head, with plant utilization near ninety-six percent. The producer benchmark remains positive, but the cushion has narrowed substantially. Pork doesn't have a production problem. It has a clearing problem.

HOST: High beef prices don't necessarily make consumers stop eating beef. They change how consumers and retailers buy it. Retailers adjust package sizes and cuts. Foodservice operators change portions and menu specifications. Further processors reformulate when possible. Pork and chicken remain alternatives for price-conscious buyers. The industry doesn't need consumers to abandon beef for price competition to matter. Scarcity sets the supply. The consumer still has a choice. August U.S. beef exports totaled eighty-six thousand three hundred sixty-two metric tons, up four percent. Export value increased thirteen percent to seven hundred eighty-six million dollars. Year to date beef exports remained seven percent below last year by volume. Excluding China, volume declined only one percent, while value increased six. August pork exports totaled two hundred twenty-two thousand metric tons, down six percent, while value declined twelve percent to six hundred six million. Mexico's softer demand contributed. Year to date pork export volume remained one percent higher.

SHAWN: Brazil exhausted its one point one oh six million metric ton beef quota into China. Since October 1st, above-quota shipments face an additional fifty-five percent tariff, bringing the total duty to sixty-seven percent. Meanwhile, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries beef quota opened October 1st, alongside a separate twenty thousand metric ton Argentine allocation. That creates more competition for U.S. lean-beef buyers as Brazil searches for alternative markets. Brazil has more beef to place. U.S. buyers have more options. Fresh domestic nineties still matter because formulation limits protect demand for fresh lean. South American nineties near three oh five to three twelve offer savings where frozen-content specifications permit. Fifties at eighty-seven cents improve blend economics. Hams and bellies weakened sharply. Chicken should be bought by the part. Friday's WASDE is the checkpoint. The cheapest quoted pound isn't always the lowest-cost pound in the formulation.

HOST: USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service plans expanded environmental Listeria sampling at ready-to-eat establishments beginning in early 2027. FSIS is also pursuing additional raw pork Salmonella sampling. For processors, sanitation verification, documentation and environmental controls remain priorities. December corn settled at five oh two, down six cents. November soybeans twelve ninety-eight, down five and a half cents. December soybean meal three sixty-five eighty, up eleven dollars. USDA releases the October WASDE Friday, October 9th, at eleven a.m. Central. The pre-report survey looks for corn production of fifteen point seven three billion bushels, a yield of one hundred seventy-seven point eight, and ending stocks of one point six nine billion. September stocks identified about one hundred seventy-three million additional bushels of old-crop corn. The corn crop may be smaller. The available supply may not be. November West Texas Crude settled at eighty-eight twenty-eight, down a dollar sixteen. Lower crude futures may eventually provide some relief, but diesel and freight costs won't necessarily adjust at the same pace. Wednesday slaughter: cattle one hundred eight thousand, year to date down seven point five percent. Hogs four hundred ninety-five thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point one million, up one point three percent.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Cattle remain scarce, but buyers have more options in boxed beef and processing trim. Imported frozen lean adds competitive pressure even as formulation limits sustain demand for domestic fresh product. Pork faces heavier supply and shrinking margins, while chicken continues expanding. Feed markets remain unsettled ahead of Friday's WASDE. Scarcity still sets the cost of cattle. Competition determines what buyers will pay for the beef. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Thursday Margin Monitor for October 8th. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | October 7th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, October 7th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: When the three hundred thousand metric ton beef import plan was announced, cattle country reacted fast. A month in, that wave has not shown up. Only thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons of September's one hundred thousand ton allocation was used. Estimates suggest only about eight thousand to twenty-two thousand metric tons may actually have been beef that would not otherwise have entered the U.S. Imports still matter. But the headline number was always much larger than what the physical market was likely to deliver overnight. Politicians will always make promises. The market decides what actually moves.

HOST: Fresh nineties have slipped toward four oh two, even with cow and bull slaughter down four point six percent from last year. Australia and New Zealand nineties around three thirty-seven, F-O-B. South America near three oh five. November Australia and New Zealand around three nineteen, C-I-F. September's quota filled less than thirty-eight thousand tons. Eighty-fives jumped to three forty-eight. Fifties are ninety-two cents. The opportunity is in the spread. December live cattle jumped four twelve to two twenty-four ten. November feeders gained eight fifteen. Choice was only up sixty-seven cents, to three seventy-eight ninety-three. Select fell two twenty-three. Nearby beef is easier. Forward cattle are not.

SHAWN: China imported just under fifty-one thousand metric tons of pork in August, down thirty-four percent. USDA expects China's 2026 pork imports seventy-seven percent below five years ago, while the U.S., Brazil, Europe and Canada are all adding production. The cutout fell two seventeen to eighty-three eighty-four. Chicken is steady, and wogs were less than steady, but chicken slaughter is still up one point three percent year to date. December corn five oh eight. Meal three fifty-four eighty, up seven seventy. November West Texas Crude eighty-nine forty-four. Beef is tightening upstream while parts of the downstream market soften. Pork is producing into a smaller Chinese market. Chicken supply is still growing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | October 7th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for October 7th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: When the three hundred thousand metric ton beef import plan was announced, cattle country reacted fast. Major producer groups warned that additional imports could pressure cattle prices, discourage herd rebuilding and bring a wave of cheaper foreign beef into the U.S. market. A month in, that wave has not shown up. Only thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons of September's one hundred thousand ton allocation was used. Depending on how incremental supply is measured, estimates suggest only about eight thousand to twenty-two thousand metric tons may actually have represented beef that would not otherwise have entered the U.S. That does not mean the concerns were misplaced. Imports matter, and they will continue to matter. But the headline number was always much larger than what the physical market was likely to deliver overnight. We said when the plan was announced that there was a lot of rhetoric surrounding the three hundred thousand ton number. September gave us the first real test. Politicians will always make promises. The market decides what actually moves.

HOST: Executive summary. Beef continues to send mixed signals. Cattle futures surged Tuesday and forward fed supplies remain tight, yet domestic nineties continue to soften. Pork is facing growing production against a dramatically smaller Chinese import market. Chicken remains comparatively steady with production still above last year, while feed and diesel costs are moving back onto the radar.

SHAWN: The lean-beef market remains one of the biggest contradictions in the protein complex. U.S. cow and bull slaughter through October 3rd totaled three point nine four four million head, down four point six percent from 2025 and fifteen point four percent from 2024. Despite that reduced domestic cow supply, fresh nineties have slipped toward four oh two. Imported lean remains substantially cheaper. Australia and New Zealand nineties have been indicated around three thirty-seven, F-O-B Philadelphia. South America near three oh five. November Australia and New Zealand around three nineteen, C-I-F Philadelphia. Even at those discounts, grinders continue to favor nearby inventory rather than aggressively reaching forward for imports. September's one hundred thousand metric ton allocation filled only thirty-seven thousand four hundred eighty-six metric tons. As of October 5th, just two thousand one hundred eighty-one metric tons had entered against October's allocation. S and P Global Energy CERA estimates total use of the entire three hundred thousand ton program could ultimately remain below one hundred fifty thousand metric tons. The rest of the grind complex is not moving uniformly lower. USDA called fresh eighty-fives sharply higher, averaging three forty-eight, while fresh fifties averaged ninety-two cents. For grinders, the opportunity remains in the spread.

HOST: December live cattle jumped four dollars twelve cents Tuesday to two twenty-four ten. November feeder cattle gained eight fifteen to three thirty-eight twenty-seven. The physical beef market was far less dramatic. Choice closed at three seventy-eight ninety-three, up sixty-seven cents. Select fell two twenty-three to three fifty-six thirty-four. The Choice Select spread widened to twenty-two fifty-nine. Nearby beef availability has improved as slaughter recovered. Forward cattle availability has not. That is the tension showing up in futures. Beef-on-dairy is becoming more than a head-count story. Genetics work shows sire selection can materially influence carcass weight and yield. Dairies can affect not only how many cattle eventually enter the beef chain, but what those animals ultimately produce. That matters as the industry searches for pounds while the native cow herd remains historically tight.

SHAWN: China imported just under fifty-one thousand metric tons of pork in August, down thirty-four percent year over year. USDA expects China's 2026 pork imports to finish seventy-seven percent below five years ago. At the same time, production is expanding across the major exporters. The U.S. up one point one percent. Brazil up eight point four. The European Union up zero point eight. Canada up two point one. That leaves substantially more pork competing for a much smaller Chinese import market. The U.S. cutout reflected that pressure Tuesday, falling two seventeen to eighty-three eighty-four. Picnics dropped nine oh five. Hams lost three ninety-one. Loins fell one forty. One counter-signal is ground pork. Year to date volume is up seven percent, while value is up eight percent. It will not solve the export problem, but it shows demand can still be built in the right format.

HOST: USDA described the broiler market as generally steady Tuesday. Wogs carried a less-than-steady tone, but demand remained moderate to good. Breasts and front halves were steady. Wings ranged steady to about steady. Dark meat remained steady to fully steady. The bigger story remains supply. Cattle slaughter down seven point five percent year to date. Hog slaughter down one percent. Chicken slaughter up one point three percent. Chicken remains the major protein currently adding supply. Vaccination may reduce losses, but it does not eliminate the surveillance problem. Vaccinated birds can avoid severe mortality and clinical signs while still becoming infected and potentially transmitting virus. Any broad U.S. vaccination strategy would likely require routine PCR and serology testing alongside existing biosecurity and outbreak controls. The question is no longer simply whether vaccination works. It is what it costs to manage a vaccinated commercial flock at scale.

SHAWN: December corn finished Tuesday at five oh eight. December soybean meal reached three fifty-four eighty, up seven seventy. Harvest remains behind normal pace. Corn is twenty-three percent harvested, four points behind average. Soybean harvest is twenty-five percent complete versus a thirty-three percent five-year average. Friday's WASDE is the next major checkpoint. Trade expectations center near fifteen point seven three billion bushels of corn and a one hundred seventy-seven point eight bushel yield, both modestly below USDA's September estimates. Diesel is the other cost to watch. Temporary dyed-diesel relief may reduce part of the tax burden, but tight physical distillate inventories remain a freight and production risk. The tax can change quickly. The underlying fuel market cannot. November West Texas Crude closed at eighty-nine forty-four, up a penny.

HOST: Brazil shipped one hundred ninety-five thousand one hundred eighty-eight metric tons of beef in September, down sharply from three hundred fourteen thousand six hundred sixteen metric tons a year earlier. Poultry exports were essentially unchanged at four hundred sixty thousand one hundred twenty-two metric tons. A stronger Brazilian real and higher cattle costs are tightening exporter economics. The next question is whether September's weaker beef shipments reflect temporary pricing resistance or something more durable. Smithfield's proposed one point three billion dollar Sioux Falls replacement pork plant hit a permitting reset after a South Dakota judge remanded its conditional-use permit back to the city. The project has not been cancelled, and current slaughter capacity remains intact. The ruling introduces another potential delay around a major regional processing investment.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Nineties: buyers have time. Seasonal cow supply and weak forward-import appetite continue to limit urgency. Eighty-fives: firm. USDA called fresh eighty-fives sharply higher. Do not assume the entire lean complex is following nineties lower. Fifties: value. At ninety-two cents, fat trim remains attractive for blend economics. Pork: soft. Hams and picnics remain under pressure. Chicken: steady. Supply remains available without a broad signal to chase. Feed: watch Friday. WASDE could quickly reset corn and meal expectations. Tuesday slaughter: cattle one hundred ten thousand. Hogs four hundred ninety-four thousand. Chicken thirty-five point three million. Year to date: cattle twenty point seven six six million, down seven point five percent. Hogs ninety-five point eight million, down one percent. Chicken seven point four three five billion, up one point three percent. December lean hogs seventy thirty-seven, down fifty-seven cents. November soybeans thirteen oh three, up twenty-two cents.

HOST: Bottom line. Beef is tightening upstream while parts of the downstream market continue to soften. Pork is producing into a tougher global demand environment. Chicken supply continues to grow. And feed and fuel are moving back into the cost equation. Right now, the opportunity is in understanding where these markets are separating — not assuming they will move together.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Wednesday Watchlist for October 7th, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 6th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for October 6th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Ohhhhh yeahhh! Macho Man Randy Savage was selling Slim Jims before we started putting protein on just about everything. Today, meat sticks are competing for that same protein dollar with shakes, bars, yogurt and foods that have protein added to them. We already sell the real thing. But that alone doesn't mean we get the sale. FATTY is growing while Slim Jim is working to regain momentum. That tells me the appetite for protein is there, but consumers still choose the product, not just the category. I see an opportunity for our industry to earn more eating occasions outside breakfast, lunch and dinner. We spend plenty of time talking about the price of beef. We should also be asking how to make meat an easier choice when someone reaches for protein between meals.

HOST: Executive summary. Recovered processing has returned more beef to a cautious wholesale market. Ribs remain difficult to cover, while several loin and round items offer better negotiating opportunities. Imported lean continues to diverge by origin and delivery window. Chicken breasts and wings softened in the latest weekly report as boneless thighs strengthened. Pork's Monday rebound improved the tone, with gains concentrated in loins, picnics, ribs and bellies.

SHAWN: Cattle processing recovered last week, with slaughter reaching five hundred forty-eight thousand head — sixty-four thousand more than the previous week. That restored a meaningful amount of product after disruptions. Monday's cutouts rebounded. Choice closed at three seventy-eight twenty-six, up four oh seven. Select at three fifty-eight fifty-seven, up four oh eight. The spread is nineteen sixty-nine. Choice remained below the previous Monday's close. More beef is reaching buyers who continue to purchase largely for immediate needs. Ribs remain the clearest exception. Light material is short, and Choice ribs continue to hold elevated prices. Buyers with specific size requirements or committed holiday business have less flexibility than the broader cutout suggests. Peeled sirloin muscle outs, top butts and boneless strips are more accessible. Expensive ribs have not generated substantial substitution into loins, leaving sellers with available loin inventory and limited spillover demand.

HOST: Rounds offer more immediate purchasing leverage. Roasting demand has not developed enough to sustain previous support, and sellers discounted lingering inventories toward the weekend. The best opportunities involve a particular item, shipment date or inventory position. Grinding supplies became more balanced through the week, with some fattier blends remaining in inventory. Domestic lean boneless strengthened Monday while eighty-five percent trim weakened. Fresh nineties four oh two. Fresh eighty-fives three twenty-seven. Fresh fifties ninety-six cents, from October 2nd. Steer and heifer ground beef eighty-one percent, three thirty-nine. Eighty-five percent, four oh seven. That divergence changes blend economics, especially where imported lean can cover the required production week.

SHAWN: South American nineties were indicated at three oh five to three twelve, free on board Philadelphia, for second-half October and November delivery. Australian and New Zealand cow product was indicated at three thirty-seven to three forty-two on an East Coast port basis. November Australia and New Zealand shipment indications were around three twenty, cost insurance and freight Philadelphia. Nearby South American product offers competitive coverage, but future Oceania replacement supply faces a different demand picture. Chinese buying of New Zealand beef could limit the volume available to U.S. buyers. Nearby availability and forward replacement costs are moving on different tracks. Estimated packer margins remained positive for a seventh consecutive week. Restored throughput is now bringing more beef into a market where purchasing remains cautious. Cash cattle reported Monday, from October 2nd trades: steers live, over eighty percent Choice, two nineteen oh one. All beef-type steers and heifers, two eighteen ninety-nine.

HOST: Chicken. The latest weekly market shows softer boneless skinless breasts and whole wings alongside firmer boneless skinless thighs. Tenderloins were nearly steady. Breast one nineteen, down about four cents. Wings one oh nine, down about two cents. Thighs one sixty-seven, up about seven cents. Tenderloins one twelve. Whole bird one eighteen, up about a penny. Leg quarters fifty-three cents. Breast and wing buyers have a better basis for testing offers, while thigh programs face higher replacement costs. Bell and Evans' one hundred fifty-two million dollar Pennsylvania expansion adds further-processing and packaging space and plans for at least three hundred eighty new jobs over three years. The investment strengthens branded antibiotic-free and organic programs, where qualified supply remains a separate sourcing requirement from conventional chicken. KFC's prototype restaurant in McKinney, Texas, tests breakfast, late-night hours and additional chicken formats. Broader adoption would create new recurring requirements across more dayparts. Disease exposure remains concentrated in Manitoba, where eight commercial poultry detections have been listed since September 10th. The case count does not quantify lost production.

SHAWN: Monday's pork cutout recovered to eighty-six cents, up about a cent and a half, as loins, picnics, ribs and bellies advanced, offsetting lower hams and butts. Loins eighty-six. Picnics seventy-one cents. Ribs one fifty-two. Bellies ninety-six cents. Hams seventy-eight. Butts one oh nine. Forty-twos sixty-six cents. Seventy-twos eighty-four. National negotiated hogs seventy-seven cents, on one thousand five hundred thirty-nine head. Finalized weekly hog slaughter was two point five five three million head, nearly unchanged from the previous week. Better sales, particularly in hams and bellies as fourth-quarter demand develops, will determine whether Monday's recovery holds. Bacon development continues through differentiated smoke, sweet-heat flavors and new formats. Forward finishing economics improved as feed costs eased. The latest weaner model placed the all-in purchase breakeven at twenty-two forty-six a head against a twenty-three oh three cash average, leaving a projected fifty-seven cent a head loss. Close to breakeven, with little room for unfavorable performance.

HOST: China's Golden Week holiday runs through October 7th. Trading activity is expected to recover later in the month. January arrivals also involve substantial financing exposure. Reported terms include advance payments of fifty to sixty percent in October for Brazilian beef arriving in January. That commits cash months before delivery. Brazilian poultry could regain European Union access following a favorable antimicrobial-control audit. Formal approval is still required, and no reopening date was announced. Beef access remains a separate compliance matter. Cattle producers are opposing dismissal of individual antitrust claims against major beef processors after their proposed class was not certified. The allegations remain unresolved. Diesel policy relief remains subject to physical supply constraints. Monday's falling crude price also did not produce a matching decline in diesel futures. November West Texas Crude closed at eighty-nine forty-three, down a dollar sixty-eight. Freight savings will depend on actual carrier rates and fuel surcharges.

SHAWN: Procurement radar. Ribs: confirm light-specification availability and committed holiday coverage. Loins and rounds: seek offers tied to customer features or processing requirements. Grinding: recalculate approved formulations using domestic components and imported offers for the same production week. Chicken: test breast and wing offers separately from firmer boneless thighs. Feed: Friday's WASDE is the next checkpoint. Monday slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, year to date down seven point five percent. Hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point three million, up one point three percent. December live cattle two nineteen ninety-eight, down a dollar fifty. November feeders three thirty oh one, down a dollar. December lean hogs seventy ninety-five, up eighty-two cents. December corn four ninety-seven. November soybeans twelve eighty-one.

HOST: Bottom line. Recovered processing has shifted some leverage toward beef buyers, with the clearest opportunities in available loins and discounted rounds. Light ribs remain the exception. If sellers clear the additional production without further concessions, that leverage will narrow. Continued inventory pressure would extend it.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse, Taco Meat Tuesday for October 6th, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | October 6th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, October 6th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Ohhhhh yeahhh! Macho Man Randy Savage was selling Slim Jims before we started putting protein on just about everything. Today meat sticks are competing for that same protein dollar with shakes, bars, yogurt and foods that have protein added to them. We already sell the real thing. That alone doesn't mean we get the sale. FATTY is growing while Slim Jim is working to regain momentum. The appetite for protein is there. Consumers still choose the product, not just the category. There is an opportunity to earn more eating occasions outside breakfast, lunch and dinner. We spend plenty of time on the price of beef. We should also ask how to make meat an easier choice when someone reaches for protein between meals.

HOST: Last week's cattle kill recovered to five hundred forty-eight thousand, sixty-four thousand more than the week before. Monday Choice cutout three seventy-eight twenty-six, up four dollars. Select three fifty-eight fifty-seven. Fresh nineties four oh two. Eighty-fives three twenty-seven. Fifties ninety-six cents, from October 2nd. Ribs are still the tight item. Loins and rounds are where the negotiating room is. South American nineties three oh five to three twelve, free on board Philadelphia, for late October and November. Australia and New Zealand cow three thirty-seven to three forty-two. November Oceania around three twenty, cost insurance and freight. Nearby coverage and forward replacement are on different tracks.

SHAWN: Chicken breast one nineteen, wings one oh nine, both softer. Thighs one sixty-seven, firmer. Pork cutout recovered to eighty-six cents, led by loins, picnics, ribs and bellies. Weekly hog kill two point five five three million, nearly unchanged. China's Golden Week runs through October 7th. November West Texas Crude closed at eighty-nine forty-three, down a dollar sixty-eight, and diesel futures did not follow crude lower. Recovered processing has shifted some leverage toward beef buyers. Light ribs are the exception. If sellers clear the extra production without more concessions, that leverage narrows. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | October 5th, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, October 5th. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Organic beef sales grew forty-four point three percent last year to more than one point four billion dollars. The obvious question is: why don't we produce more of it here?

Because organic beef starts with the land. New organic acres generally need thirty-six months without prohibited inputs, and the whole system has to stay compliant. The bigger hurdle is economics. Ranchers can sell conventional cattle today at historically strong prices. Going organic asks them to restrict the land and the cattle, take on cost and risk, and trust the premium years later. Consumers can create a forty-four percent demand signal in one year. Building the land and the cattle to answer it takes years — perhaps decades. If the premium doesn't justify converting the acres, that supply may never be built here at scale.

HOST: Fresh nineties enter the week at four oh five. Eighty-fives three thirty-nine. Fifties eighty-nine cents. South American nineties still indicated around three oh five, free on board the East Coast. Lean trimming imports through September twenty-sixth are eighteen percent above last year. Buyers are pushing meaningful fourth-quarter purchasing into twenty twenty-seven. Cash cattle held around two twenty-six in the South and three forty-five to three fifty dressed in the North, while December live cattle closed at two twenty-one forty-seven, down a dollar seventy. Weekly kill five hundred forty-eight thousand. Year to date still down seven point five percent.

SHAWN: Chicken breast is one nineteen, about twenty-nine percent below a year ago. HPAI is back with fall migration — twenty flocks and about five hundred sixty thousand birds in thirty days — but that is a forward risk, not a tight chicken market today. Pork cutout eighty-six oh six. China is considering lower tariffs on U.S. pork and offal under the thirty-for-thirty framework. Consider is the word. Nothing is implemented yet. December corn broke five dollars, to four ninety-eight, and meal gave back about twenty-nine dollars a ton. Brazil has exhausted its China beef quota. Above-quota shipments now face a sixty-seven percent total duty. Diesel approached six dollars in September. The G-7 is releasing reserves. That may ease the price. It doesn't shorten the miles. Buyers have some leverage in lean beef and feed. Not necessarily in live cattle. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | October 5th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 5th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: According to the Organic Trade Association, U.S. organic beef sales grew forty-four point three percent in twenty twenty-five to more than one point four billion dollars. Read that headline and the obvious question is: why don't we produce more of it here?

Because organic beef starts with the land. New organic pasture and cropland generally require thirty-six months without prohibited inputs. Then the entire production system — from forage and feed to the cattle themselves — has to remain compliant. But the biggest hurdle is economics. American ranchers can sell conventional cattle today at historically strong prices. Going organic asks them to restrict how they manage their land and cattle, assume additional costs and risk, and trust that the premium will still justify it years later. Consumers can create a forty-four percent demand signal in one year. Building the land base and cattle supply to answer it takes years — perhaps decades. And if the premium doesn't justify converting the acres, that supply may never be built here at scale.

HOST: Executive summary. Domestic nineties enter the week just above four dollars as imported South American lean remains substantially cheaper. Cash cattle strengthened despite weaker futures and Choice boxed beef, while chicken white meat remains under pressure. Feed buyers received some relief as corn broke five dollars and soybean meal sold off sharply ahead of Friday's WASDE.

SHAWN: USDA's weekly processing-beef report put fresh nineties at four oh five, with forty-four trades representing nearly one point four four million pounds. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three thirty-nine. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-nine cents. Platts' latest indications had South American nineties around three oh five, free on board the East Coast, compared with roughly three thirty-seven for Australia and New Zealand. U.S. lean-beef trimming imports through September twenty-sixth totaled seven hundred forty-four thousand one hundred thirty-two metric tons — eighteen percent above twenty twenty-five and forty point two percent above twenty twenty-four. The more revealing signal may be buyer behavior. Expectations for meaningful fourth-quarter purchasing have increasingly shifted toward the first and second quarter of twenty twenty-seven, suggesting lower domestic values have not yet created urgency.

HOST: The physical cattle market and the futures board ended the week telling different stories. Southern live cattle traded around two twenty-six, while Northern dressed trade developed around three forty-five to three fifty. December live cattle closed at two twenty-one forty-seven, down a dollar seventy. November feeders finished at three thirty-one fifteen, down five twenty. Choice boxed beef closed at three seventy-four nineteen, down two sixty. Select increased a dollar sixty to three fifty-four forty-nine, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to nineteen seventy. USDA estimated weekly cattle slaughter at five hundred forty-eight thousand head, compared with four hundred eighty-four thousand the previous week and five hundred sixty-seven thousand nine hundred sixty a year ago. Year-to-date slaughter remains seven point five percent below twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: Strong beef values are changing decisions inside the dairy industry. CoBank's Corey Geiger says the U.S. dairy herd has reached a thirty-four-year high, with beef revenue helping producers retain cows that weaker milk economics might otherwise have pushed toward slaughter. At the same time, beef-on-dairy genetics are changing what eventually comes out of that system. Better sire selection can improve carcass weight and yield compared with traditional dairy animals. The supply implication runs both directions. Beef economics are influencing when dairy cows leave the herd, while improved genetics are increasing the beef value of the calves being produced behind them.

HOST: Chicken white meat remains under pressure. Boneless skinless breast one nineteen, down about four cents. Whole wings one oh nine, down about two cents. Leg quarters fifty-three cents, down about a penny. Boneless skinless thighs one sixty-seven, up about seven cents. The whole-bird composite moved the other way, up about a penny to one eighteen. RaboResearch estimates boneless skinless breast values are roughly twenty-nine percent below a year ago, while egg sets and chick placements have been growing more slowly in the second half than in the first half of twenty twenty-six. That suggests the industry is beginning to respond to weaker returns, although current white-meat availability remains ample.

SHAWN: HPAI activity is increasing again as the fall migratory period gets underway. During the thirty days leading into late September, H5N1 was confirmed in twenty U.S. flocks — thirteen commercial and seven backyard — affecting about five hundred sixty thousand birds. Recent commercial cases have been concentrated across Minnesota, Wisconsin and other Upper Midwest states. Those losses are nowhere near the scale seen during the worst periods of the outbreak. For now, HPAI is a forward biological risk — not evidence that today's chicken supply has tightened.

HOST: The weekly pork cutout finished at eighty-six oh six a hundredweight, down a dollar twenty-five. Loins declined two fourteen to eighty-four twelve. Hams fell four sixty to eighty-one sixty. Bellies gained three oh two to ninety-four sixty-one. Forty-twos finished at sixty-four cents. Seventy-twos at eighty-nine cents. Picnics at sixty-seven cents. The White House's new U.S.-China thirty-for-thirty framework places fresh and frozen pork — and pork offal — on China's list of U.S. products being considered for reduced tariff treatment. That distinction matters. The tariff reductions have not yet been implemented. China remains particularly important to U.S. variety-meat economics. If reduced tariff treatment ultimately improves access for feet, ears and other offal, the benefit reaches beyond any individual primal. Better variety-meat realization can improve the economics of the entire hog carcass.

SHAWN: December corn closed at four ninety-eight, losing more than thirty cents for the week, while November soybean meal fell roughly twenty-nine dollars a ton. September first corn stocks totaled two point oh nine five billion bushels, about five hundred million above last year and the largest September first inventory since twenty nineteen. But the Daily Livestock Report notes that this fall's corn production is roughly one point two billion bushels below last year. If exports remain near twenty twenty-five twenty-six levels and industrial usage remains steady, corn available for livestock and poultry feed could actually decline three to four percent. Export demand hasn't disappeared either. Mexico booked another two hundred eighteen thousand six hundred metric tons of U.S. corn. For protein producers, the immediate development is favorable. Both corn and soybean meal gave back substantial value during the week. The next major checkpoint is Friday's October 9th WASDE.

HOST: Brazil has exhausted its one point one million metric ton twenty twenty-six beef quota into China. Beginning October 1st, shipments above the quota face an additional fifty-five percent tariff on top of China's standard twelve percent duty — taking the total to sixty-seven percent. China is Brazil's largest beef customer. It does not mean Brazilian beef automatically moves to the United States. Eligibility, specifications, quotas and market access still matter. But with South American nineties already among the most competitive imported lean options available to U.S. grinders, the next round of Brazilian and broader South American offers deserves close attention as normal trading resumes following Golden Week.

SHAWN: Saudi Arabia imported about one billion dollars of bovine meat last year, while U.S. beef accounted for only about ten million. After technical barriers restricting U.S. access were lifted earlier this year, April-through-July exports roughly doubled year over year to five hundred seventy-five metric tons valued at six point two million. The U.S. Meat Export Federation estimates the opportunity could ultimately reach about one hundred fifty million. This is less a commodity-volume story than a higher-value cut and premium foodservice opportunity in a young, expanding consumer market.

HOST: The White House has published reciprocal product lists under the new U.S.-China Board of Trade framework. China's list includes a broad range of U.S. agricultural products, including beef, pork, pork offal and poultry. The key word is consider. The published framework recommends those products for reduced tariff treatment, but actual reductions still depend on each country's domestic legal process. For protein markets, the next development that matters is not another announcement. It is the actual tariff rate and effective date.

SHAWN: Diesel approached six dollars a gallon in September, creating another layer of cost across feed transportation, live-animal movement, processing and finished-product distribution. A smaller herd can force buyers to reach farther for cattle, increasing procurement miles. Heavier cattle can reduce the number of animals moved on some loads, while equipment and state weight restrictions can require additional trips. The G-7 has agreed to release one...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Monday Market Open | October 5th, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for October 5th, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: According to the Organic Trade Association, U.S. organic beef sales grew forty-four point three percent in twenty twenty-five to more than one point four billion dollars. Read that headline and the obvious question is: why don't we produce more of it here?

Because organic beef starts with the land. New organic pasture and cropland generally require thirty-six months without prohibited inputs. Then the entire production system — from forage and feed to the cattle themselves — has to remain compliant. But the biggest hurdle is economics. American ranchers can sell conventional cattle today at historically strong prices. Going organic asks them to restrict how they manage their land and cattle, assume additional costs and risk, and trust that the premium will still justify it years later. Consumers can create a forty-four percent demand signal in one year. Building the land base and cattle supply to answer it takes years — perhaps decades. And if the premium doesn't justify converting the acres, that supply may never be built here at scale.

HOST: Executive summary. Domestic nineties enter the week just above four dollars as imported South American lean remains substantially cheaper. Cash cattle strengthened despite weaker futures and Choice boxed beef, while chicken white meat remains under pressure. Feed buyers received some relief as corn broke five dollars and soybean meal sold off sharply ahead of Friday's WASDE.

SHAWN: USDA's weekly processing-beef report put fresh nineties at four oh five, with forty-four trades representing nearly one point four four million pounds. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three thirty-nine. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-nine cents. Platts' latest indications had South American nineties around three oh five, free on board the East Coast, compared with roughly three thirty-seven for Australia and New Zealand. U.S. lean-beef trimming imports through September twenty-sixth totaled seven hundred forty-four thousand one hundred thirty-two metric tons — eighteen percent above twenty twenty-five and forty point two percent above twenty twenty-four. The more revealing signal may be buyer behavior. Expectations for meaningful fourth-quarter purchasing have increasingly shifted toward the first and second quarter of twenty twenty-seven, suggesting lower domestic values have not yet created urgency.

HOST: The physical cattle market and the futures board ended the week telling different stories. Southern live cattle traded around two twenty-six, while Northern dressed trade developed around three forty-five to three fifty. December live cattle closed at two twenty-one forty-seven, down a dollar seventy. November feeders finished at three thirty-one fifteen, down five twenty. Choice boxed beef closed at three seventy-four nineteen, down two sixty. Select increased a dollar sixty to three fifty-four forty-nine, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to nineteen seventy. USDA estimated weekly cattle slaughter at five hundred forty-eight thousand head, compared with four hundred eighty-four thousand the previous week and five hundred sixty-seven thousand nine hundred sixty a year ago. Year-to-date slaughter remains seven point five percent below twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: Strong beef values are changing decisions inside the dairy industry. CoBank's Corey Geiger says the U.S. dairy herd has reached a thirty-four-year high, with beef revenue helping producers retain cows that weaker milk economics might otherwise have pushed toward slaughter. At the same time, beef-on-dairy genetics are changing what eventually comes out of that system. Better sire selection can improve carcass weight and yield compared with traditional dairy animals. The supply implication runs both directions. Beef economics are influencing when dairy cows leave the herd, while improved genetics are increasing the beef value of the calves being produced behind them.

HOST: Chicken white meat remains under pressure. Boneless skinless breast one nineteen, down about four cents. Whole wings one oh nine, down about two cents. Leg quarters fifty-three cents, down about a penny. Boneless skinless thighs one sixty-seven, up about seven cents. The whole-bird composite moved the other way, up about a penny to one eighteen. RaboResearch estimates boneless skinless breast values are roughly twenty-nine percent below a year ago, while egg sets and chick placements have been growing more slowly in the second half than in the first half of twenty twenty-six. That suggests the industry is beginning to respond to weaker returns, although current white-meat availability remains ample.

SHAWN: HPAI activity is increasing again as the fall migratory period gets underway. During the thirty days leading into late September, H5N1 was confirmed in twenty U.S. flocks — thirteen commercial and seven backyard — affecting about five hundred sixty thousand birds. Recent commercial cases have been concentrated across Minnesota, Wisconsin and other Upper Midwest states. Those losses are nowhere near the scale seen during the worst periods of the outbreak. For now, HPAI is a forward biological risk — not evidence that today's chicken supply has tightened.

HOST: The weekly pork cutout finished at eighty-six oh six a hundredweight, down a dollar twenty-five. Loins declined two fourteen to eighty-four twelve. Hams fell four sixty to eighty-one sixty. Bellies gained three oh two to ninety-four sixty-one. Forty-twos finished at sixty-four cents. Seventy-twos at eighty-nine cents. Picnics at sixty-seven cents. The White House's new U.S.-China thirty-for-thirty framework places fresh and frozen pork — and pork offal — on China's list of U.S. products being considered for reduced tariff treatment. That distinction matters. The tariff reductions have not yet been implemented. China remains particularly important to U.S. variety-meat economics. If reduced tariff treatment ultimately improves access for feet, ears and other offal, the benefit reaches beyond any individual primal. Better variety-meat realization can improve the economics of the entire hog carcass.

SHAWN: December corn closed at four ninety-eight, losing more than thirty cents for the week, while November soybean meal fell roughly twenty-nine dollars a ton. September first corn stocks totaled two point oh nine five billion bushels, about five hundred million above last year and the largest September first inventory since twenty nineteen. But the Daily Livestock Report notes that this fall's corn production is roughly one point two billion bushels below last year. If exports remain near twenty twenty-five twenty-six levels and industrial usage remains steady, corn available for livestock and poultry feed could actually decline three to four percent. Export demand hasn't disappeared either. Mexico booked another two hundred eighteen thousand six hundred metric tons of U.S. corn. For protein producers, the immediate development is favorable. Both corn and soybean meal gave back substantial value during the week. The next major checkpoint is Friday's October 9th WASDE.

HOST: Brazil has exhausted its one point one million metric ton twenty twenty-six beef quota into China. Beginning October 1st, shipments above the quota face an additional fifty-five percent tariff on top of China's standard twelve percent duty — taking the total to sixty-seven percent. China is Brazil's largest beef customer. It does not mean Brazilian beef automatically moves to the United States. Eligibility, specifications, quotas and market access still matter. But with South American nineties already among the most competitive imported lean options available to U.S. grinders, the next round of Brazilian and broader South American offers deserves close attention as normal trading resumes following Golden Week.

SHAWN: Saudi Arabia imported about one billion dollars of bovine meat last year, while U.S. beef accounted for only about ten million. After technical barriers restricting U.S. access were lifted earlier this year, April-through-July exports roughly doubled year over year to five hundred seventy-five metric tons valued at six point two million. The U.S. Meat Export Federation estimates the opportunity could ultimately reach about one hundred fifty million. This is less a commodity-volume story than a higher-value cut and premium foodservice opportunity in a young, expanding consumer market.

HOST: The White House has published reciprocal product lists under the new U.S.-China Board of Trade framework. China's list includes a broad range of U.S. agricultural products, including beef, pork, pork offal and poultry. The key word is consider. The published framework recommends those products for reduced tariff treatment, but actual reductions still depend on each country's domestic legal process. For protein markets, the next development that matters is not another announcement. It is the actual tariff rate and effective date.

SHAWN: Diesel approached six dollars a gallon in September, creating another layer of cost across feed transportation, live-animal movement, processing and finished-product distribution. A smaller herd can force buyers to reach farther for cattle, increasing procurement miles. Heavier cattle can reduce the number of animals moved on some loads, while equipment and state weight restrictions can require additional trips. The G-7 has agreed to release one hundred million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves over four months, with diesel releases front-loaded. That may provide price relief. It doesn't shorten the supply chain. The margin problem isn't simply the price of diesel. It's the number of diesel miles required to produce and deliver each pound of protein.

HOST: What I'm watching. Nineties near four dollars. Two twenty-six cash cattle. Post-Golden Week South American offers. Fall HPAI activity. Friday's WASDE. Diesel response to reserve releases. Snapshot. Choice three seventy-four nineteen, down two sixty. Select three fifty-four forty-nine, up a dollar sixty. Spread nineteen seventy. Fresh nineties four oh five. Eighty-fives three thirty-nine. Fifties eighty-nine cents. Pork cutout eighty-six cents. Loins eighty-four. Bellies ninety-five. Weekly cattle slaughter five hundred forty-eight thousand, year to date down seven point five percent. Hogs two point five five nine million, down one percent. Chicken one hundred seventy-three point two million, up one point three percent. December live cattle two twenty-one forty-seven, down a dollar seventy. November feeders three thirty-one fifteen, down five twenty. December lean hogs seventy twelve, up a dollar twenty. December corn four ninety-eight, down four and a half cents. November soybeans twelve seventy-eight, down five and three-quarters. November West Texas Crude ninety-one eleven, down a dollar seventy-six.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Buyers enter the week with some leverage in lean beef and feed — but not necessarily in live cattle. Domestic nineties are approaching four dollars. Corn has broken five dollars and soybean meal corrected sharply, while cash cattle remain firm near two twenty-six. Friday's WASDE and the next round of South American lean offers should tell us whether last week's corrections have further to run. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for October 5th, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | October 2, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, October 2nd. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: High prices cure high prices. We've all heard it. But is high beef finally starting to cure high beef — or is it more than that?

Cattle are still tight. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year to date. Nothing this week changed the long-term supply story. The question is demand. USDA expects beef prices up nine point four percent this year, against one point two for pork and one percent for poultry. That gap shows up in the cart, on the menu and in the meat case. Beef fajitas or chicken enchiladas. Pot roast or a pork roast that hits a better price point. Add those decisions up and that's demand. Is your beef demand as strong as it was this time last year? If the answer is no, watch the customer as closely as the cattle count.

HOST: Thursday kill one hundred nine thousand. Week to date four hundred ten thousand. Year to date down seven point seven percent. Steer carcasses averaged nine hundred seventy-nine pounds. Choice broke to three seventy-seven, down six cents. Select three fifty-three, down eight cents. Fresh nineties three ninety-seven, back under four dollars. Fifties eighty-nine cents. South American frozen nineties still indicated three oh seven to three twelve. Santa Teresa is open again, but one thousand ninety-two head in week one does not fix today's fed-cattle shortage.

SHAWN: Pork packer margins improved to about seven dollars a head, the strongest since January, with utilization at ninety-six point four percent. Cutout eighty-five cents. Chicken slaughter is still modestly above last year, and Hormel is buying Brakebush for about one point oh six billion — value-added foodservice, not live birds. China's extra fifty-five percent tariff on above-quota Brazilian beef took effect October first, the same day another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. tariff-free allocation opened. September's allocation was only about thirty-seven percent used. November West Texas Crude settled at ninety-two eighty-seven, up two forty-five. On a forty-thousand-pound load, every extra four hundred dollars of freight is about a penny a pound. A cheap offer can lose its edge when the truck gets expensive. Tight cattle do not guarantee stronger beef prices everywhere. Next week, watch the customer as closely as the cattle count. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | October 2, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 2, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: High prices cure high prices. We've all heard it. But is high beef finally starting to cure high beef — or is it more than that? Cattle are still tight. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year to date, and nothing this week changed the long-term cattle supply story. But I wonder if we're spending so much time counting cattle that we're not asking enough about demand. And that's where price starts to matter. USDA expects beef prices to be up nine point four percent this year, compared with just one point two percent for pork and one percent for poultry. That gap doesn't exist on a spreadsheet. It shows up every day in the decisions people make with their money. For a family, maybe it's beef in the cart — or, after the jump in fuel prices, more of the family budget going into the tank. For a restaurant, it might be beef fajitas on special or chicken enchiladas. And as the weather cools, does a retailer feature pot roast — or a pork roast that can hit a more attractive price point? None of those decisions looks big by itself. But add them up across millions of consumers, thousands of restaurants and every retail meat case in the country — and that's demand. So here's the question I'm asking: is your beef demand as strong as it was this time last year? Tight cattle still matter. But if the answer is no, we'd better start paying as much attention to the customer as we do to the cattle count.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle slaughter recovered this week as recent processing disruptions eased, but the structural supply problem remains. Cattle slaughter is seven point seven percent below last year year to date, while steer carcass weights remain historically heavy. At the same time, the downstream beef market softened Thursday. Choice and Select both moved sharply lower, fresh domestic nineties slipped below four dollars, and fifties moved below ninety cents. Pork packer margins improved to their strongest level since January, while chicken production continues to run modestly above last year. Globally, China's additional fifty-five percent tariff on Brazilian beef above its one point one million metric ton annual quota took effect October first, just as another U.S. tariff-free beef allocation opened. The cattle supply story remains tight. The more important question entering the fourth quarter may be whether beef demand remains strong enough to carry today's price structure.

SHAWN: Cattle processing improved sharply Thursday. Federally inspected slaughter was estimated at one hundred nine thousand head, bringing the week-to-date total to four hundred ten thousand, compared with three hundred eighty-nine thousand the prior week. Year to date, about twenty point four two million head, down seven point seven percent. Heavy cattle continue to offset part of that decline in head count. Steer carcass weights recently averaged nine hundred seventy-nine pounds, up twelve pounds from last year and thirty-one pounds from twenty twenty-four. Cash cattle remained regional. Northern dressed trade developed around three forty-five to three forty-eight, while Southern packers were bidding around two twenty-six live. Freight is increasingly part of that regional basis. Moving heavy cattle south can add an estimated seven to eight dollars a head. Boxed beef broke lower Thursday. Choice three seventy-seven, down six cents. Select three fifty-three, down eight cents. The spread is twenty-four cents. The important signal isn't simply that boxes moved lower. Cattle supplies remain historically tight while downstream beef values are showing that buyers still have limits.

HOST: Thursday's processing-beef trade moved the grinding complex lower. Fresh nineties three ninety-seven. Fresh eighty-fives three forty-five. Fresh fifties eighty-nine cents. Fresh domestic nineties falling below four dollars is notable after spending much of the summer at historically elevated levels. Imported lean remains considerably cheaper at origin. South American frozen nineties were recently indicated around three oh seven to three twelve, free on board the U.S. East Coast. Australia and New Zealand cow nineties were around three thirty-five to three forty. The spread remains substantial, although freight, timing, inventory and specification determine how much of that advantage survives on a delivered basis. September USDA data also showed imported frozen nineties averaging roughly three forty, versus about four twenty-six for domestic fresh nineties.

SHAWN: Mexican feeder cattle are beginning to move north again. Since the Douglas, Arizona, port reopened August twenty-fourth, about seventeen thousand one hundred thirty-one head have crossed, including five thousand eight hundred ninety-two during the latest reported week. Santa Teresa, New Mexico, reopened September twenty-fourth and handled one thousand ninety-two head during its first week. Historically, Santa Teresa has handled roughly ten to eleven thousand head a week. The reopening matters for future feeder availability, but it does not solve today's fed-cattle shortage. Those cattle still require months of feeding before becoming beef supply.

HOST: Weekly chicken slaughter totaled about one hundred seventy-two point nine million head, up two point nine percent from the prior week but zero point nine percent below the comparable week last year. Year-to-date head count remains about two percent above twenty twenty-five, while ready-to-cook production is about one percent higher. USDA's Thursday broiler market described most categories as steady. Export interest improved, while tenders remained pressured by lackluster demand. The bigger strategic chicken development this week came from Hormel. Hormel announced its one point oh six billion acquisition of Brakebush Brothers, a value-added chicken processor generating about one point two billion in annual sales, with roughly ninety percent of its business in foodservice. Chicken has historically represented less than five percent of Hormel's portfolio. Following the transaction, that exposure is expected to increase to about thirteen percent. Hormel isn't buying live-bird production or harvest capacity. It is increasing its exposure to value-added processing and foodservice margins after the bird has already been processed.

SHAWN: Pork processing economics improved materially. Sterling Marketing estimated packer margins at plus six ninety-eight a head, compared with a thirteen-cent loss the prior week. Plant utilization increased to ninety-six point four percent, and estimated packer margins reached their strongest level since January. Producer economics remain positive as well, with estimated farrow-to-finish margins around plus twenty-seven dollars a head. Thursday's pork complex: cutout eighty-five cents. Loins eighty-three. Bellies ninety-three. Picnics sixty-three. Forty-twos sixty-one. Seventy-twos eighty-nine. National negotiated hogs seventy-seven cents. Weekly pork export sales totaled thirty-five thousand three hundred metric tons. Mexico accounted for seventeen thousand two hundred — nearly forty-nine percent of the weekly total.

HOST: Purdue's swine finishing model points toward higher feed costs in twenty twenty-seven based on early-September futures assumptions. Its projected twenty twenty-seven feed-cost index is about nine point seven percent above twenty twenty-six, although that is a forecast tied to corn and soybean meal assumptions, not a guaranteed increase. Thursday's board was mixed. December corn five oh two and a quarter, up a cent and a half. November soybeans twelve eighty-four, down nine cents. December soybean meal three fifty-three thirty, down three sixty. Feed remains a forward margin risk, but Thursday's market did not deliver a uniformly bullish feed signal.

SHAWN: China's additional fifty-five percent tariff on Brazilian beef above Brazil's one point one million metric ton annual quota became effective October first. That changes the economics of incremental Brazilian beef moving into its largest export market. At the same time, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. tariff-free beef allocation opened October first. The prior September allocation was only thirty-seven point four nine percent utilized through September twenty-eighth. An available quota does not mean the entire volume immediately arrives. Chinese buyers had already been pushing Brazilian bids lower ahead of the quota threshold, while imported Brazilian beef offered inside China moved higher after the quota was exhausted. For U.S. grinding-beef buyers, the issue is straightforward: where does Brazilian lean find its best netback now? China, the United States and other destinations are competing for the same eligible Brazilian supply under different tariff, freight and market conditions.

HOST: Weekly U.S. beef export sales improved to fourteen thousand five hundred metric tons, up about fifty-four percent from the prior week. South Korea and Japan were the largest buyers. Despite the stronger week, twenty twenty-six commitments remain about four percent below last year. U.S. beef and pork were also included among the non-sensitive goods identified during current U.S.-China trade negotiations. The Meat Institute said the development could provide a foundation for addressing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, while emphasizing that technical restrictions and plant-registration issues remain unresolved. China remains particularly important for U.S....]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Closing Bell Friday | October 2, 2026

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for October 2, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: High prices cure high prices. We've all heard it. But is high beef finally starting to cure high beef — or is it more than that? Cattle are still tight. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year to date, and nothing this week changed the long-term cattle supply story. But I wonder if we're spending so much time counting cattle that we're not asking enough about demand. And that's where price starts to matter. USDA expects beef prices to be up nine point four percent this year, compared with just one point two percent for pork and one percent for poultry. That gap doesn't exist on a spreadsheet. It shows up every day in the decisions people make with their money. For a family, maybe it's beef in the cart — or, after the jump in fuel prices, more of the family budget going into the tank. For a restaurant, it might be beef fajitas on special or chicken enchiladas. And as the weather cools, does a retailer feature pot roast — or a pork roast that can hit a more attractive price point? None of those decisions looks big by itself. But add them up across millions of consumers, thousands of restaurants and every retail meat case in the country — and that's demand. So here's the question I'm asking: is your beef demand as strong as it was this time last year? Tight cattle still matter. But if the answer is no, we'd better start paying as much attention to the customer as we do to the cattle count.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle slaughter recovered this week as recent processing disruptions eased, but the structural supply problem remains. Cattle slaughter is seven point seven percent below last year year to date, while steer carcass weights remain historically heavy. At the same time, the downstream beef market softened Thursday. Choice and Select both moved sharply lower, fresh domestic nineties slipped below four dollars, and fifties moved below ninety cents. Pork packer margins improved to their strongest level since January, while chicken production continues to run modestly above last year. Globally, China's additional fifty-five percent tariff on Brazilian beef above its one point one million metric ton annual quota took effect October first, just as another U.S. tariff-free beef allocation opened. The cattle supply story remains tight. The more important question entering the fourth quarter may be whether beef demand remains strong enough to carry today's price structure.

SHAWN: Cattle processing improved sharply Thursday. Federally inspected slaughter was estimated at one hundred nine thousand head, bringing the week-to-date total to four hundred ten thousand, compared with three hundred eighty-nine thousand the prior week. Year to date, about twenty point four two million head, down seven point seven percent. Heavy cattle continue to offset part of that decline in head count. Steer carcass weights recently averaged nine hundred seventy-nine pounds, up twelve pounds from last year and thirty-one pounds from twenty twenty-four. Cash cattle remained regional. Northern dressed trade developed around three forty-five to three forty-eight, while Southern packers were bidding around two twenty-six live. Freight is increasingly part of that regional basis. Moving heavy cattle south can add an estimated seven to eight dollars a head. Boxed beef broke lower Thursday. Choice three seventy-seven, down six cents. Select three fifty-three, down eight cents. The spread is twenty-four cents. The important signal isn't simply that boxes moved lower. Cattle supplies remain historically tight while downstream beef values are showing that buyers still have limits.

HOST: Thursday's processing-beef trade moved the grinding complex lower. Fresh nineties three ninety-seven. Fresh eighty-fives three forty-five. Fresh fifties eighty-nine cents. Fresh domestic nineties falling below four dollars is notable after spending much of the summer at historically elevated levels. Imported lean remains considerably cheaper at origin. South American frozen nineties were recently indicated around three oh seven to three twelve, free on board the U.S. East Coast. Australia and New Zealand cow nineties were around three thirty-five to three forty. The spread remains substantial, although freight, timing, inventory and specification determine how much of that advantage survives on a delivered basis. September USDA data also showed imported frozen nineties averaging roughly three forty, versus about four twenty-six for domestic fresh nineties.

SHAWN: Mexican feeder cattle are beginning to move north again. Since the Douglas, Arizona, port reopened August twenty-fourth, about seventeen thousand one hundred thirty-one head have crossed, including five thousand eight hundred ninety-two during the latest reported week. Santa Teresa, New Mexico, reopened September twenty-fourth and handled one thousand ninety-two head during its first week. Historically, Santa Teresa has handled roughly ten to eleven thousand head a week. The reopening matters for future feeder availability, but it does not solve today's fed-cattle shortage. Those cattle still require months of feeding before becoming beef supply.

HOST: Weekly chicken slaughter totaled about one hundred seventy-two point nine million head, up two point nine percent from the prior week but zero point nine percent below the comparable week last year. Year-to-date head count remains about two percent above twenty twenty-five, while ready-to-cook production is about one percent higher. USDA's Thursday broiler market described most categories as steady. Export interest improved, while tenders remained pressured by lackluster demand. The bigger strategic chicken development this week came from Hormel. Hormel announced its one point oh six billion acquisition of Brakebush Brothers, a value-added chicken processor generating about one point two billion in annual sales, with roughly ninety percent of its business in foodservice. Chicken has historically represented less than five percent of Hormel's portfolio. Following the transaction, that exposure is expected to increase to about thirteen percent. Hormel isn't buying live-bird production or harvest capacity. It is increasing its exposure to value-added processing and foodservice margins after the bird has already been processed.

SHAWN: Pork processing economics improved materially. Sterling Marketing estimated packer margins at plus six ninety-eight a head, compared with a thirteen-cent loss the prior week. Plant utilization increased to ninety-six point four percent, and estimated packer margins reached their strongest level since January. Producer economics remain positive as well, with estimated farrow-to-finish margins around plus twenty-seven dollars a head. Thursday's pork complex: cutout eighty-five cents. Loins eighty-three. Bellies ninety-three. Picnics sixty-three. Forty-twos sixty-one. Seventy-twos eighty-nine. National negotiated hogs seventy-seven cents. Weekly pork export sales totaled thirty-five thousand three hundred metric tons. Mexico accounted for seventeen thousand two hundred — nearly forty-nine percent of the weekly total.

HOST: Purdue's swine finishing model points toward higher feed costs in twenty twenty-seven based on early-September futures assumptions. Its projected twenty twenty-seven feed-cost index is about nine point seven percent above twenty twenty-six, although that is a forecast tied to corn and soybean meal assumptions, not a guaranteed increase. Thursday's board was mixed. December corn five oh two and a quarter, up a cent and a half. November soybeans twelve eighty-four, down nine cents. December soybean meal three fifty-three thirty, down three sixty. Feed remains a forward margin risk, but Thursday's market did not deliver a uniformly bullish feed signal.

SHAWN: China's additional fifty-five percent tariff on Brazilian beef above Brazil's one point one million metric ton annual quota became effective October first. That changes the economics of incremental Brazilian beef moving into its largest export market. At the same time, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. tariff-free beef allocation opened October first. The prior September allocation was only thirty-seven point four nine percent utilized through September twenty-eighth. An available quota does not mean the entire volume immediately arrives. Chinese buyers had already been pushing Brazilian bids lower ahead of the quota threshold, while imported Brazilian beef offered inside China moved higher after the quota was exhausted. For U.S. grinding-beef buyers, the issue is straightforward: where does Brazilian lean find its best netback now? China, the United States and other destinations are competing for the same eligible Brazilian supply under different tariff, freight and market conditions.

HOST: Weekly U.S. beef export sales improved to fourteen thousand five hundred metric tons, up about fifty-four percent from the prior week. South Korea and Japan were the largest buyers. Despite the stronger week, twenty twenty-six commitments remain about four percent below last year. U.S. beef and pork were also included among the non-sensitive goods identified during current U.S.-China trade negotiations. The Meat Institute said the development could provide a foundation for addressing tariffs and non-tariff barriers, while emphasizing that technical restrictions and plant-registration issues remain unresolved. China remains particularly important for U.S. beef variety meats and offal, where export values can contribute to total carcass realization. Separately, the American Farm Bureau Federation renewed its opposition to the temporary three hundred thousand metric ton expansion of the U.S. beef tariff-rate quota. Its economists tracked eighty percent lean ground beef at forty-one stores in twenty-two states from September second through September twenty-third and reported the average price declining from seven twenty-nine to seven thirteen, with prices unchanged at thirty of the forty-one stores. Those findings and Farm Bureau's conclusions about the import program are its analysis and advocacy position, not an independent measure of the program's total market effect.

SHAWN: Energy and freight moved back onto the protein procurement screen this week. November West Texas Crude settled Thursday at ninety-two eighty-seven, up two forty-five. U.S. distillate inventories were reported around one hundred five point two million barrels, nearly fifteen percent below last year, with East Coast diesel and heating-oil inventories roughly twenty-nine percent below year-ago levels. China has now suspended most gasoline and diesel exports for October as refiners preserve domestic inventories. The protein implication is freight. Imported-beef contacts reported plants increasing destination pricing by roughly two to three cents a pound because of transportation costs, while cattle freight is also contributing to regional live-cattle basis differences. On a forty-thousand-pound truckload, every additional four hundred dollars of freight equals about one cent a pound in landed cost. A cheap free-on-board offer can lose its advantage quickly when the truck gets expensive.

HOST: Week in review. Beef: slaughter recovered, but remains seven point seven percent below last year. Heavy carcasses continue offsetting part of the head-count decline while boxed beef and grinding values softened. Chicken: production remains modestly above last year, while Hormel moved deeper into value-added foodservice chicken through Brakebush. Pork: packer margins improved to their strongest level since January and utilization climbed above ninety-six percent. Global: China's Brazilian beef quota moved from a developing issue to an active tariff event October first. Procurement: diesel, freight and energy returned as landed-cost variables. Demand: beef inflation continues to materially outpace pork and poultry.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef buyers enter October with more leverage in parts of the complex than the cattle inventory alone might suggest. Grinding inputs have moved lower. Imported lean remains available at a substantial discount to domestic fresh nineties. Pork and chicken continue to carry considerably less retail inflation than beef. And higher fuel costs are competing for the same consumer dollar while raising transportation costs throughout the protein supply chain. None of that means the cattle problem is over. It isn't. But tight cattle supplies do not guarantee stronger beef prices everywhere in the complex. Next week, watch the customer as closely as the cattle count. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for October 2, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, October first. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: My late Ag Econ instructor at Oklahoma State, Dr. Bob Ortman — God rest his soul — drilled one word into us: scarcity. That’s the cattle market. Slaughter is down nearly eight percent. The herd hasn’t rebuilt. Scarcity is real. But it doesn’t exist in a vacuum. At some price, buyers adapt. Imports substitute for domestic lean. Chicken substitutes for beef. Pork competes for the plate. Grinders reformulate. Fresh nineties are four oh nine. Imported nineties are roughly a dollar cheaper. Chicken breast is around one twenty-one. Pork cutout is eighty-five cents. The cattle are still scarce. What’s changing is the value of the next scarce pound when the market has alternatives.

HOST: Wednesday cattle kill ninety-eight thousand. Year to date down seven point eight percent. Choice three eighty-three. Select three sixty-one. Fresh fifties eighty-one cents, and USDA called lean trimmings sharply lower. Hales’ eighty-one percent ground beef is still about seven percent above last year. Demand didn’t disappear. Grinders just have more options. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of other-countries lean quota opens today. Argentina’s next twenty thousand metric tons opens too. Brazil has exhausted its China beef quota. Above-quota shipments into China now face an extra fifty-five percent tariff.

SHAWN: Brazil doesn’t have to send those pounds here to matter. It only has to compete harder somewhere else. Chicken still has the pounds — breast down about twenty-nine percent year over year, and Hormel is buying Brakebush for about one point oh five five billion. Pork is eighty-five cents today, less than a quarter of Choice, but the pig crop is down two percent and farrowings down three. Cheap today doesn’t necessarily mean cheap tomorrow. December corn fell twenty-one and a quarter to five dollars even after USDA found more corn than the trade expected. Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel is still near four ninety-six.

HOST: Domestic lean is moving lower. Imported lean still carries the discount. Cheap fifties are improving the blend. The pressure to chase protein has eased. The burden is shifting toward proving why the next pound deserves a premium.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 1, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I never forgot something my Ag Econ 1114 instructor, the late Dr. Bob Ortman — God rest his soul — drilled into us at Oklahoma State. What is fundamental in economics? Scarcity. That’s exactly what has driven the cattle market. We don’t have enough cattle. Slaughter is down nearly 8 percent. The herd hasn’t rebuilt. Scarcity is real. But scarcity doesn’t exist in a vacuum. At some price, buyers adapt. Imports substitute for domestic lean. Chicken substitutes for beef. Pork competes for the plate. Grinders reformulate. Retailers change portions and packages. Fresh nineties are four oh nine while imported nineties are roughly a dollar cheaper. Chicken breast is around one twenty-one and the pork cutout is eighty-five cents. Now Brazil has effectively hit the wall in China just as additional U.S. quota opens. The cattle are still scarce. What’s changing is the value of the next scarce pound when the market has alternatives. Dr. Ortman would probably tell me that’s economics doing exactly what economics does.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle slaughter is down seven point eight percent year to date, but fresh nineties have fallen to four oh nine. Imported lean remains sharply discounted to domestic product, while chicken and pork remain inexpensive alternatives. Brazil’s beef quota into China is exhausted, triggering an additional fifty-five percent tariff on above-quota shipments beginning today. At the same time, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries quota capacity opens October first. Argentina’s separate fourth twenty-thousand-metric-ton tranche also opens today. USDA corn stocks surprised higher, sending December corn sharply lower, while diesel remains near five dollars a gallon.

SHAWN: The grind isn’t telling us Americans quit eating hamburgers. It’s telling us grinders don’t have to chase raw material the way they did this summer. USDA called lean boneless beef and trimmings sharply lower Wednesday. Fresh nineties averaged four oh nine on one hundred forty-four thousand seven hundred ninety-seven pounds of reported trade. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-one cents on four hundred seventy-four thousand five hundred ninety-seven pounds. Domestic fresh nineties were around four forty-nine only four weeks ago. Available ground-beef data don’t point to demand disappearing. Hales’ three-day average for eighty-one percent ground beef was approximately seven percent above last year, while year-to-date volume was nearly even with twenty twenty-five despite substantially lower fed-beef production. Imports, boneless inventories and cow supply are simply giving grinders more options.

HOST: Fewer cattle doesn’t mean fewer choices. Wednesday cattle slaughter totaled ninety-eight thousand head, bringing week-to-date slaughter to three hundred one thousand. Year to date, twenty point three oh three million head, down seven point eight percent. Choice closed at three eighty-three. Select at three sixty-one. The spread is twenty-two cents. USDA’s August cold-storage data put frozen beef stocks above four hundred seven million pounds, with boneless beef inventories higher than both July and last year. The U.S. can simultaneously have too few cattle and enough available beef to keep buyers from chasing price. Range and pasture conditions remain difficult, with fifty-one percent rated poor or very poor, versus thirty-five percent last year. The herd still needs rebuilding. Near-term beef availability doesn’t change that.

SHAWN: Chicken has what beef doesn’t: pounds. Boneless skinless breast meat is near one twenty-one, down roughly twenty-nine percent year over year. Wings are near five-year lows and dark meat has also weakened. Broiler egg sets were up three percent year over year, cumulative chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five, and year-to-date chicken slaughter is one point four percent above last year. The pipeline is beginning to moderate. RaboResearch sees egg sets and chick placements running only about one percent above last year during the second half, compared with roughly four point one percent growth during the first half. That’s moderation, not contraction. There are still plenty of chicken pounds coming into a market where breast, wings and dark meat are already under pressure. USDA described wogs as steady with moderate demand and balanced-to-adequate floor stocks. Tenders were weaker, while wings and dark meat were generally steady. Consumers don’t have to stop eating beef for inexpensive chicken to affect beef demand. They only have to substitute one meal.

HOST: Hormel Foods has agreed to acquire Brakebush Brothers for approximately one point oh five five billion. Brakebush generates roughly one point two billion in annual sales across five production facilities and two R and D labs. Hormel isn’t buying live production. It’s buying value-added processing, foodservice relationships and product-development capability while commodity chicken values remain weak.

SHAWN: Cheap today doesn’t necessarily mean cheap tomorrow. The pork cutout fell another two eighty-two Wednesday to eighty-five cents. Loins were eighty-three cents. Bellies ninety-four cents. Picnics sixty-seven cents. Forty-twos sixty-four cents. Seventy-twos eighty-eight cents. Wednesday hog slaughter totaled four hundred eighty-six thousand head, with year-to-date slaughter only one percent below twenty twenty-five. For now, pork availability remains sufficient and values give buyers another inexpensive alternative to historically expensive beef. But the forward supply picture is tighter. The breeding herd stood at five point eight seven million head on September first, down one percent year over year, while the June-through-August pig crop fell two percent and sow farrowings declined three percent. That’s the pork disconnect: plenty of product today, but fewer animals underneath the longer-term supply pipeline. At eighty-five cents, the pork cutout is less than one-quarter the value of the Choice beef cutout. That doesn’t mean consumers substitute pound for pound, but it gives retailers, foodservice operators and further processors a powerful reason to keep pork in the conversation.

HOST: Retail isn’t waiting for cheaper cattle. Creekstone Farms is expanding portion-cut capabilities as customers seek more consistent portions, lower in-store labor and greater operational efficiency. The company has also invested more than twenty million dollars in ground-beef expansion. When consumers resist the package price, the answer doesn’t always have to be cheaper beef. It can be a smaller steak, a different cut or more ground beef. High beef prices don’t just change what consumers buy. They change how the industry sells beef.

SHAWN: Brazil needs another home. Brazil has exhausted its one point one oh six million metric ton twenty twenty-six beef quota into China. Beginning today, beef above that quota faces an additional fifty-five percent tariff, on top of China’s normal twelve percent import tariff. China purchased roughly one point six eight million metric tons of Brazilian beef in twenty twenty-five, meaning the twenty twenty-six quota covers only about sixty-five percent of last year’s volume. At the same time, the United States today opens another one hundred thousand metric ton tranche of its temporary three hundred thousand metric ton additional tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings from other countries or areas. Argentina separately receives access to the fourth twenty thousand metric ton tranche of its additional eighty thousand metric ton twenty twenty-six allocation. That does not mean Brazilian beef automatically comes here. Brazil doesn’t have to send those pounds to the United States to matter. It only has to compete harder somewhere else. That pressure can move through global lean-beef values.

HOST: Procurement radar. Import advantage holds. Domestic fresh nineties at four oh nine remain roughly ninety cents to a dollar two above imported nineties. More quota opens. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries quota capacity opens today. Brazil pressure builds. Brazil has exhausted its China quota. Blend economics improve. Fresh fifties near eighty-one cents lower the fat side of the grind while imported lean remains discounted to domestic fresh nineties. Buyer leverage improves. Domestic nineties are well off summer highs. Current indications: U.S. fresh nineties four oh nine. South America nineties three oh seven to three twelve. Australia nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives two ninety-eight to three oh four. Ninety-fives three twenty-five to three forty-nine.

SHAWN: Farm Bill authority expires. The extension of the twenty eighteen Farm Bill expired September thirtieth. New Conservation Reserve Program enrollment is paused without additional congressional action, although several major conservation programs have separate authority through fiscal twenty thirty-one.

HOST: USDA found more corn than expected. USDA reported two point oh nine five billion bushels of corn stocks on September first — one hundred seventy-one million bushels above the average trade estimate. December corn fell twenty-one and a quarter cents to five dollars even and three-quarters. June-through-August corn disappearance totaled three point two oh billion bushels versus three point oh nine billion last year. USDA found more corn than expected. It didn’t find collapsing demand. Soybean stocks...]]>Full

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for October 1, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I never forgot something my Ag Econ 1114 instructor, the late Dr. Bob Ortman — God rest his soul — drilled into us at Oklahoma State. What is fundamental in economics? Scarcity. That’s exactly what has driven the cattle market. We don’t have enough cattle. Slaughter is down nearly 8 percent. The herd hasn’t rebuilt. Scarcity is real. But scarcity doesn’t exist in a vacuum. At some price, buyers adapt. Imports substitute for domestic lean. Chicken substitutes for beef. Pork competes for the plate. Grinders reformulate. Retailers change portions and packages. Fresh nineties are four oh nine while imported nineties are roughly a dollar cheaper. Chicken breast is around one twenty-one and the pork cutout is eighty-five cents. Now Brazil has effectively hit the wall in China just as additional U.S. quota opens. The cattle are still scarce. What’s changing is the value of the next scarce pound when the market has alternatives. Dr. Ortman would probably tell me that’s economics doing exactly what economics does.

HOST: Executive summary. Cattle slaughter is down seven point eight percent year to date, but fresh nineties have fallen to four oh nine. Imported lean remains sharply discounted to domestic product, while chicken and pork remain inexpensive alternatives. Brazil’s beef quota into China is exhausted, triggering an additional fifty-five percent tariff on above-quota shipments beginning today. At the same time, another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries quota capacity opens October first. Argentina’s separate fourth twenty-thousand-metric-ton tranche also opens today. USDA corn stocks surprised higher, sending December corn sharply lower, while diesel remains near five dollars a gallon.

SHAWN: The grind isn’t telling us Americans quit eating hamburgers. It’s telling us grinders don’t have to chase raw material the way they did this summer. USDA called lean boneless beef and trimmings sharply lower Wednesday. Fresh nineties averaged four oh nine on one hundred forty-four thousand seven hundred ninety-seven pounds of reported trade. Fresh fifties averaged eighty-one cents on four hundred seventy-four thousand five hundred ninety-seven pounds. Domestic fresh nineties were around four forty-nine only four weeks ago. Available ground-beef data don’t point to demand disappearing. Hales’ three-day average for eighty-one percent ground beef was approximately seven percent above last year, while year-to-date volume was nearly even with twenty twenty-five despite substantially lower fed-beef production. Imports, boneless inventories and cow supply are simply giving grinders more options.

HOST: Fewer cattle doesn’t mean fewer choices. Wednesday cattle slaughter totaled ninety-eight thousand head, bringing week-to-date slaughter to three hundred one thousand. Year to date, twenty point three oh three million head, down seven point eight percent. Choice closed at three eighty-three. Select at three sixty-one. The spread is twenty-two cents. USDA’s August cold-storage data put frozen beef stocks above four hundred seven million pounds, with boneless beef inventories higher than both July and last year. The U.S. can simultaneously have too few cattle and enough available beef to keep buyers from chasing price. Range and pasture conditions remain difficult, with fifty-one percent rated poor or very poor, versus thirty-five percent last year. The herd still needs rebuilding. Near-term beef availability doesn’t change that.

SHAWN: Chicken has what beef doesn’t: pounds. Boneless skinless breast meat is near one twenty-one, down roughly twenty-nine percent year over year. Wings are near five-year lows and dark meat has also weakened. Broiler egg sets were up three percent year over year, cumulative chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five, and year-to-date chicken slaughter is one point four percent above last year. The pipeline is beginning to moderate. RaboResearch sees egg sets and chick placements running only about one percent above last year during the second half, compared with roughly four point one percent growth during the first half. That’s moderation, not contraction. There are still plenty of chicken pounds coming into a market where breast, wings and dark meat are already under pressure. USDA described wogs as steady with moderate demand and balanced-to-adequate floor stocks. Tenders were weaker, while wings and dark meat were generally steady. Consumers don’t have to stop eating beef for inexpensive chicken to affect beef demand. They only have to substitute one meal.

HOST: Hormel Foods has agreed to acquire Brakebush Brothers for approximately one point oh five five billion. Brakebush generates roughly one point two billion in annual sales across five production facilities and two R and D labs. Hormel isn’t buying live production. It’s buying value-added processing, foodservice relationships and product-development capability while commodity chicken values remain weak.

SHAWN: Cheap today doesn’t necessarily mean cheap tomorrow. The pork cutout fell another two eighty-two Wednesday to eighty-five cents. Loins were eighty-three cents. Bellies ninety-four cents. Picnics sixty-seven cents. Forty-twos sixty-four cents. Seventy-twos eighty-eight cents. Wednesday hog slaughter totaled four hundred eighty-six thousand head, with year-to-date slaughter only one percent below twenty twenty-five. For now, pork availability remains sufficient and values give buyers another inexpensive alternative to historically expensive beef. But the forward supply picture is tighter. The breeding herd stood at five point eight seven million head on September first, down one percent year over year, while the June-through-August pig crop fell two percent and sow farrowings declined three percent. That’s the pork disconnect: plenty of product today, but fewer animals underneath the longer-term supply pipeline. At eighty-five cents, the pork cutout is less than one-quarter the value of the Choice beef cutout. That doesn’t mean consumers substitute pound for pound, but it gives retailers, foodservice operators and further processors a powerful reason to keep pork in the conversation.

HOST: Retail isn’t waiting for cheaper cattle. Creekstone Farms is expanding portion-cut capabilities as customers seek more consistent portions, lower in-store labor and greater operational efficiency. The company has also invested more than twenty million dollars in ground-beef expansion. When consumers resist the package price, the answer doesn’t always have to be cheaper beef. It can be a smaller steak, a different cut or more ground beef. High beef prices don’t just change what consumers buy. They change how the industry sells beef.

SHAWN: Brazil needs another home. Brazil has exhausted its one point one oh six million metric ton twenty twenty-six beef quota into China. Beginning today, beef above that quota faces an additional fifty-five percent tariff, on top of China’s normal twelve percent import tariff. China purchased roughly one point six eight million metric tons of Brazilian beef in twenty twenty-five, meaning the twenty twenty-six quota covers only about sixty-five percent of last year’s volume. At the same time, the United States today opens another one hundred thousand metric ton tranche of its temporary three hundred thousand metric ton additional tariff-rate quota for lean beef trimmings from other countries or areas. Argentina separately receives access to the fourth twenty thousand metric ton tranche of its additional eighty thousand metric ton twenty twenty-six allocation. That does not mean Brazilian beef automatically comes here. Brazil doesn’t have to send those pounds to the United States to matter. It only has to compete harder somewhere else. That pressure can move through global lean-beef values.

HOST: Procurement radar. Import advantage holds. Domestic fresh nineties at four oh nine remain roughly ninety cents to a dollar two above imported nineties. More quota opens. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of U.S. other-countries quota capacity opens today. Brazil pressure builds. Brazil has exhausted its China quota. Blend economics improve. Fresh fifties near eighty-one cents lower the fat side of the grind while imported lean remains discounted to domestic fresh nineties. Buyer leverage improves. Domestic nineties are well off summer highs. Current indications: U.S. fresh nineties four oh nine. South America nineties three oh seven to three twelve. Australia nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives two ninety-eight to three oh four. Ninety-fives three twenty-five to three forty-nine.

SHAWN: Farm Bill authority expires. The extension of the twenty eighteen Farm Bill expired September thirtieth. New Conservation Reserve Program enrollment is paused without additional congressional action, although several major conservation programs have separate authority through fiscal twenty thirty-one.

HOST: USDA found more corn than expected. USDA reported two point oh nine five billion bushels of corn stocks on September first — one hundred seventy-one million bushels above the average trade estimate. December corn fell twenty-one and a quarter cents to five dollars even and three-quarters. June-through-August corn disappearance totaled three point two oh billion bushels versus three point oh nine billion last year. USDA found more corn than expected. It didn’t find collapsing demand. Soybean stocks totaled three hundred fifteen million bushels, while quarterly disappearance increased to seven hundred forty-four million bushels from six hundred eighty-three million last year.

SHAWN: October Ultra-Low Sulfur Diesel ended September near four ninety-six a gallon, up approximately fifty-three percent during the third quarter, while U.S. distillate inventories remain more than thirteen percent below the five-year average.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three eighty-three. Select three sixty-one. Spread twenty-two cents. Fresh nineties four oh nine. Fresh fifties eighty-one cents. Live steer, more than eighty percent Choice, two twenty-one. Pork cutout eighty-five cents. Loins eighty-three. Bellies ninety-four. Picnics sixty-seven. Forty-twos sixty-four. Seventy-twos eighty-eight. National negotiated hogs eighty cents. December live cattle two twenty-two seventy, up a dollar ninety. October feeder cattle three thirty-six forty-two, up two seventy-seven. October lean hogs seventy-eight seventy-two, down sixty-five cents. December corn five even and three-quarters, down twenty-one and a quarter. November soybeans twelve ninety-three, down four and three-quarters. November crude ninety forty-two, up a dollar four. Wednesday cattle slaughter ninety-eight thousand. Week to date three hundred one thousand. Year to date down seven point eight percent. Hogs Wednesday four hundred eighty-six thousand. Year to date down one percent. Chicken Wednesday thirty-five point one three eight million. Year to date up one point four percent.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Domestic lean is moving lower, imported lean still carries a substantial discount, and cheap fifties are improving grind economics. At the same time, additional U.S. quota opens just as Brazil has more reason to compete outside China. For buyers, the pressure to chase protein has eased. For sellers, the burden is shifting toward proving why the next pound deserves a premium. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for October 1, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September thirtieth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Tomorrow another one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens to the U.S. market. If you’re buying raw material for ground beef, pay attention. Imported lean isn’t a pound-for-pound replacement for fresh domestic nineties. Some processors can’t or won’t use it because of customer specs or perception. Others can, but only to a certain percentage before binding and blending become an issue. That’s not a knock on the product. I’ve been inside South American meat plants, and the quality and cleanliness are on par with what I’ve seen here. If you can use imported lean, maximize it and maximize the margin. If you can’t, you better figure out how — before your competition prices you out of the market.

HOST: Tuesday’s cattle kill one hundred eight thousand after Monday’s ninety-five thousand. Year-to-date still down seven point seven percent. Choice three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. No new national nineties test. Fifties ninety-two cents, sharply higher. Weekly beef imports up thirty-three percent.

SHAWN: Hormel is buying Brakebush for about one point oh five five billion — a one point two billion value-added chicken business. Chicken has the supply, and large companies are putting more money behind it. Hog inventory down two percent. Cutout still down about sixteen percent since early June. Less supply isn’t fixing weak demand.

HOST: W T I dropped three twenty-two. U L S D jumped three percent to four ninety. Don’t price freight off the crude headline. Grain Stocks is today. The second lean tranche is tomorrow.

SHAWN: Domestic cattle remain tight. The raw-material equation is changing around them. The next move isn’t just about price — it’s about what your operation can actually use. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your Daily Market Update on All Things Protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 30, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Tomorrow another one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens to the U.S. market. If you’re buying raw material for ground beef, pay attention. Imported lean isn’t a pound-for-pound replacement for fresh domestic nineties. Some processors can’t or won’t use it because of customer specifications or perception. Others can use it, but only to a certain percentage before binding and blending become an issue. And that’s not a knock on the product. I’ve been inside South American meat plants, and the quality and cleanliness are on par with what I’ve seen here in the U.S. If you can use imported lean, maximize it and maximize the margin. If you can’t, you better figure out how — before your competition prices you out of the market.

HOST: Beef: Tuesday slaughter recovered to one hundred eight thousand after Monday’s ninety-five thousand. Choice closed three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. Year-to-date cattle slaughter remains seven point seven percent below last year. Chicken: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush for about one point oh five five billion, adding a roughly one point two billion value-added chicken business heavily focused on foodservice. Pork: hog supplies are tightening, but demand remains the bigger issue. The cutout has lost roughly sixteen percent since early June despite lower slaughter. Diesel: W T I dropped three twenty-two Tuesday while U L S D jumped three percent. Protein freight isn’t following the crude headline.

SHAWN: Tuesday’s cattle kill rebounded to one hundred eight thousand, up from ninety-five thousand Monday and one hundred thousand the previous Tuesday. Week-to-date two hundred three thousand versus two hundred thirty-two thousand eight hundred forty-five last year. Year-to-date twenty point two oh five million, down seven point seven percent. Tuesday’s rebound is important after last week’s short kill. It suggests processing is beginning to normalize, but one day doesn’t replace the production lost last week.

HOST: Choice finished three eighty-three, up two eighteen cents. Select jumped six twenty-five cents to three sixty-four. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to eighteen cents. Sterling estimates feedlots at minus three thirty-five a head while packers are plus one fifty-one. Fed-beef plant utilization fell to seventy-four point six percent last week. Carcasses remain heavy at nine hundred fifty-two pounds. Choice-and-higher grading reached eighty-seven point three percent. Hales points to high-quality Angus and Angus-beef-dairy cross cattle replacing traditional dairy steers as one contributor. Those heavier, better-grading cattle are helping offset some of the pressure from fewer head.

SHAWN: Fresh fifties averaged ninety-two cents Tuesday on more than four hundred sixty-one thousand pounds. USDA called beef trimmings sharply higher with good demand and moderate offerings. No new national nineties or eighty-fives test was established. Tomorrow opens the second one-hundred-thousand-metric-ton tranche of additional lower-duty imported lean. Latest weekly U.S. beef imports totaled thirty-eight thousand eight hundred twenty-five metric tons, up thirty-two point nine percent year over year. Australia nine thousand five hundred thirty-nine. Brazil nine thousand one hundred ninety-five. Canada seven thousand three hundred fifty-six. Santa Teresa, Douglas, Columbus, and Nogales historically accounted for roughly eighty percent of U.S. cattle imports from Mexico. If reopening continues and those crossings ultimately return to full capacity, current estimates suggest Mexican cattle supplies could add the equivalent of more than four percent to fed-cattle slaughter by late second quarter twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush Brothers for about one point oh five five billion, significantly expanding its position in value-added chicken and foodservice. Brakebush generated about one point two billion in sales over the last twelve months, operates five production facilities and two R and D labs, and supplies further-processed chicken to national and regional foodservice operators. Hormel specifically identified value-added chicken as an attractive growth category. They’re not alone. McDonald’s has set a goal of gaining one point five percentage points of chicken market share by twenty thirty while maintaining its leadership position in beef.

SHAWN: USDA called Tuesday’s chicken market about steady. Wogs were moderate. Breasts and tenders were steady. Wings were softer in some sizes. Dark meat was mixed. Year-to-date chicken slaughter remains one point four percent above last year. The Hormel deal is also a bet on what happens downstream. Brakebush takes chicken raw material and turns it into higher-value patties, nuggets, wings, and other foodservice products. Chicken has the supply — and some very large companies are putting more money behind the category.

HOST: U.S. hog inventory stood at seventy-four point three million head on September first, down two percent year over year. June-through-August pigs weaned were also down two percent. Less supply hasn’t translated into stronger pork. Daily Livestock Report estimates the cutout has fallen roughly eighteen dollars a hundredweight, or sixteen percent, since early June. Bellies, hams, and picnics accounted for about eighty-five percent of that decline. Frozen pork stocks were twelve percent above last year, with hams up twenty-six and loins up twenty-one. Bellies fell thirty-five percent from the previous month and were slightly below last year.

SHAWN: That’s what makes the belly market interesting. Daily Livestock Report estimates roughly sixty-five percent of bellies move through meals prepared away from home. Belly values have been one of the biggest contributors to the cutout’s decline even though cold-storage inventories aren’t showing a large year-over-year overhang. That points back toward demand and product mix, not simply too much pork sitting in the freezer. Sterling estimates producer margins at plus twenty-seven a head and packer margins at plus seven. Less supply isn’t fixing weak demand.

HOST: South America continues to matter more to the U.S. lean-beef equation. Paraguay shipped only about seventy-five metric tons of beef to the U.S. in twenty twenty-three, roughly twenty-eight thousand in twenty twenty-four, and forty-nine thousand four hundred fifty-six in twenty twenty-five. Through August twenty twenty-six, shipments had already reached thirty-five thousand four hundred forty-three metric tons. Much of the product moving into the U.S. is frozen lean destined for ground-beef applications. Brazil’s September fresh-frozen beef export pace increased about five percent from August, although it remained about thirty-two percent below September twenty twenty-five. Tomorrow’s second tranche adds another piece to a global lean market increasingly tied to U.S. ground-beef economics.

SHAWN: The U.S.-China Board of Trade is considering recommendations covering thirty billion dollars of non-sensitive trade on each side that could eventually receive more favorable tariff treatment. U S M E F sees potential for beef, pork, and variety meats to be included, with pork variety meats particularly important because China remains a major outlet. Nothing meat-specific has been finalized. For now, it’s an opening — not a deal.

HOST: Tuesday’s close. December corn five twenty-two, down a cent. November soybeans twelve ninety-eight, up nine and a half cents. Early Wednesday, December corn five twenty-four and a half. November soybeans thirteen oh six. USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports are due today. Central Plains feedlot cost of gain is around a dollar twenty-five a pound. D T N reports anhydrous fertilizer about twenty-five percent above last year.

SHAWN: November W T I fell three twenty-two to eighty-nine thirty-eight Tuesday. October U L S D jumped three percent to four ninety a gallon. That disconnect is already showing up in delivered cost. In a recent Meatingplace reader survey, roughly two-thirds of respondents said transportation and logistics costs had increased at least ten percent over the previous six months, with nearly four in ten reporting increases above twenty percent. It’s a small reader survey, not an industry census, but it reinforces what buyers are already seeing: a lower crude headline doesn’t automatically mean cheaper freight. Don’t price freight off the crude headline.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. Last established nineties four eleven. Fifties ninety-two cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Bellies ninety-nine cents. Tuesday cattle slaughter one hundred eight thousand. Year-to-date cattle down seven point seven. Hogs down one percent. Chicken up one point four. October live cattle two seventeen twenty-two. November crude eighty-nine thirty-eight.

SHAWN: Bottom line. USDA gets the next word on feed today. Tomorrow the next one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens. Domestic cattle supplies remain tight, but the raw-material equation is changing around them. For protein buyers, the next move isn’t just about price — it’s about what your operation can actually use. Stay...]]>Protein Pulse - Wednesday Watchlist | September 30, 2026

Your Daily Market Update on All Things Protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 30, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Tomorrow another one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens to the U.S. market. If you’re buying raw material for ground beef, pay attention. Imported lean isn’t a pound-for-pound replacement for fresh domestic nineties. Some processors can’t or won’t use it because of customer specifications or perception. Others can use it, but only to a certain percentage before binding and blending become an issue. And that’s not a knock on the product. I’ve been inside South American meat plants, and the quality and cleanliness are on par with what I’ve seen here in the U.S. If you can use imported lean, maximize it and maximize the margin. If you can’t, you better figure out how — before your competition prices you out of the market.

HOST: Beef: Tuesday slaughter recovered to one hundred eight thousand after Monday’s ninety-five thousand. Choice closed three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. Year-to-date cattle slaughter remains seven point seven percent below last year. Chicken: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush for about one point oh five five billion, adding a roughly one point two billion value-added chicken business heavily focused on foodservice. Pork: hog supplies are tightening, but demand remains the bigger issue. The cutout has lost roughly sixteen percent since early June despite lower slaughter. Diesel: W T I dropped three twenty-two Tuesday while U L S D jumped three percent. Protein freight isn’t following the crude headline.

SHAWN: Tuesday’s cattle kill rebounded to one hundred eight thousand, up from ninety-five thousand Monday and one hundred thousand the previous Tuesday. Week-to-date two hundred three thousand versus two hundred thirty-two thousand eight hundred forty-five last year. Year-to-date twenty point two oh five million, down seven point seven percent. Tuesday’s rebound is important after last week’s short kill. It suggests processing is beginning to normalize, but one day doesn’t replace the production lost last week.

HOST: Choice finished three eighty-three, up two eighteen cents. Select jumped six twenty-five cents to three sixty-four. The Choice-Select spread narrowed to eighteen cents. Sterling estimates feedlots at minus three thirty-five a head while packers are plus one fifty-one. Fed-beef plant utilization fell to seventy-four point six percent last week. Carcasses remain heavy at nine hundred fifty-two pounds. Choice-and-higher grading reached eighty-seven point three percent. Hales points to high-quality Angus and Angus-beef-dairy cross cattle replacing traditional dairy steers as one contributor. Those heavier, better-grading cattle are helping offset some of the pressure from fewer head.

SHAWN: Fresh fifties averaged ninety-two cents Tuesday on more than four hundred sixty-one thousand pounds. USDA called beef trimmings sharply higher with good demand and moderate offerings. No new national nineties or eighty-fives test was established. Tomorrow opens the second one-hundred-thousand-metric-ton tranche of additional lower-duty imported lean. Latest weekly U.S. beef imports totaled thirty-eight thousand eight hundred twenty-five metric tons, up thirty-two point nine percent year over year. Australia nine thousand five hundred thirty-nine. Brazil nine thousand one hundred ninety-five. Canada seven thousand three hundred fifty-six. Santa Teresa, Douglas, Columbus, and Nogales historically accounted for roughly eighty percent of U.S. cattle imports from Mexico. If reopening continues and those crossings ultimately return to full capacity, current estimates suggest Mexican cattle supplies could add the equivalent of more than four percent to fed-cattle slaughter by late second quarter twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Hormel announced this morning it will acquire Brakebush Brothers for about one point oh five five billion, significantly expanding its position in value-added chicken and foodservice. Brakebush generated about one point two billion in sales over the last twelve months, operates five production facilities and two R and D labs, and supplies further-processed chicken to national and regional foodservice operators. Hormel specifically identified value-added chicken as an attractive growth category. They’re not alone. McDonald’s has set a goal of gaining one point five percentage points of chicken market share by twenty thirty while maintaining its leadership position in beef.

SHAWN: USDA called Tuesday’s chicken market about steady. Wogs were moderate. Breasts and tenders were steady. Wings were softer in some sizes. Dark meat was mixed. Year-to-date chicken slaughter remains one point four percent above last year. The Hormel deal is also a bet on what happens downstream. Brakebush takes chicken raw material and turns it into higher-value patties, nuggets, wings, and other foodservice products. Chicken has the supply — and some very large companies are putting more money behind the category.

HOST: U.S. hog inventory stood at seventy-four point three million head on September first, down two percent year over year. June-through-August pigs weaned were also down two percent. Less supply hasn’t translated into stronger pork. Daily Livestock Report estimates the cutout has fallen roughly eighteen dollars a hundredweight, or sixteen percent, since early June. Bellies, hams, and picnics accounted for about eighty-five percent of that decline. Frozen pork stocks were twelve percent above last year, with hams up twenty-six and loins up twenty-one. Bellies fell thirty-five percent from the previous month and were slightly below last year.

SHAWN: That’s what makes the belly market interesting. Daily Livestock Report estimates roughly sixty-five percent of bellies move through meals prepared away from home. Belly values have been one of the biggest contributors to the cutout’s decline even though cold-storage inventories aren’t showing a large year-over-year overhang. That points back toward demand and product mix, not simply too much pork sitting in the freezer. Sterling estimates producer margins at plus twenty-seven a head and packer margins at plus seven. Less supply isn’t fixing weak demand.

HOST: South America continues to matter more to the U.S. lean-beef equation. Paraguay shipped only about seventy-five metric tons of beef to the U.S. in twenty twenty-three, roughly twenty-eight thousand in twenty twenty-four, and forty-nine thousand four hundred fifty-six in twenty twenty-five. Through August twenty twenty-six, shipments had already reached thirty-five thousand four hundred forty-three metric tons. Much of the product moving into the U.S. is frozen lean destined for ground-beef applications. Brazil’s September fresh-frozen beef export pace increased about five percent from August, although it remained about thirty-two percent below September twenty twenty-five. Tomorrow’s second tranche adds another piece to a global lean market increasingly tied to U.S. ground-beef economics.

SHAWN: The U.S.-China Board of Trade is considering recommendations covering thirty billion dollars of non-sensitive trade on each side that could eventually receive more favorable tariff treatment. U S M E F sees potential for beef, pork, and variety meats to be included, with pork variety meats particularly important because China remains a major outlet. Nothing meat-specific has been finalized. For now, it’s an opening — not a deal.

HOST: Tuesday’s close. December corn five twenty-two, down a cent. November soybeans twelve ninety-eight, up nine and a half cents. Early Wednesday, December corn five twenty-four and a half. November soybeans thirteen oh six. USDA’s Grain Stocks and Small Grains reports are due today. Central Plains feedlot cost of gain is around a dollar twenty-five a pound. D T N reports anhydrous fertilizer about twenty-five percent above last year.

SHAWN: November W T I fell three twenty-two to eighty-nine thirty-eight Tuesday. October U L S D jumped three percent to four ninety a gallon. That disconnect is already showing up in delivered cost. In a recent Meatingplace reader survey, roughly two-thirds of respondents said transportation and logistics costs had increased at least ten percent over the previous six months, with nearly four in ten reporting increases above twenty percent. It’s a small reader survey, not an industry census, but it reinforces what buyers are already seeing: a lower crude headline doesn’t automatically mean cheaper freight. Don’t price freight off the crude headline.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three eighty-three. Select three sixty-four. Last established nineties four eleven. Fifties ninety-two cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Bellies ninety-nine cents. Tuesday cattle slaughter one hundred eight thousand. Year-to-date cattle down seven point seven. Hogs down one percent. Chicken up one point four. October live cattle two seventeen twenty-two. November crude eighty-nine thirty-eight.

SHAWN: Bottom line. USDA gets the next word on feed today. Tomorrow the next one hundred thousand metric tons of lower-duty imported lean opens. Domestic cattle supplies remain tight, but the raw-material equation is changing around them. For protein buyers, the next move isn’t just about price — it’s about what your operation can actually use. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 30, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September twenty-ninth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The number that caught my attention wasn’t four hundred eighty-four thousand. It was four eleven. Cattle slaughter fell last week, and fresh nineties still moved lower. USDA is calling lean boneless sharply lower on light demand — even after one of the smallest cattle kills we’ve seen this year. Tight supply only matters to price when somebody needs the pounds.

HOST: Last week’s cattle slaughter four hundred eighty-four thousand, down from five hundred twenty-nine thousand. Monday’s kill ninety-five thousand. Fresh nineties four eleven. Eighty-fives three thirty-two. Fifties eighty-seven cents. Choice three eighty. Select three fifty-eight. Hales packer margins one thirty to one sixty — sixth positive week. August placements still down nine point two percent. The herd is tight. Lean still didn’t chase.

SHAWN: South American nineties about three oh seven to three twelve F O B East Coast. Australian-New Zealand three thirty-five to three forty. Domestic fresh nineties four eleven. That’s roughly a dollar of starting gap. F O B port isn’t delivered plant. Freight, diesel, storage, and timing still have to be run to the dock. Imports through September nineteenth were up seventeen percent. Boneless beef stocks ended August up six percent. USDA also called demand light Monday.

HOST: Pork herd is one point five percent smaller. Record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Cutout eighty-eight cents. Freezer pork up twelve percent. Hams up twenty-six. August wholesale pork demand was reported seventeen percent below last year. Fewer hogs. More pounds in the freezer. Chicken production still ahead year-to-date. Frozen chicken inventories down five percent. H P A I is back on the northern migration path. The second lean-beef tranche opens October first.

SHAWN: Don’t pay a shortage price for a product that isn’t short. Run the blend. Run imported lean all the way to the dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | September 29, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 29, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: The number that caught my attention wasn’t four hundred eighty-four thousand. It was four eleven eighty-eight. Cattle slaughter fell to four hundred eighty-four thousand head last week, and fresh nineties still moved lower. That tells me this isn’t just a supply story. We watched fifties start breaking after Labor Day. Now nineties are following, and USDA is calling lean boneless sharply lower on light demand — even after one of the smallest cattle kills we’ve seen this year. Imports matter. Boneless beef stocks matter. But so does what buyers are willing to pay. That’s what matters going into Q four. We can have historically tight cattle supplies and still have a grind market that doesn’t need to chase product. Tight supply only matters to price when somebody needs the pounds.

HOST: Beef gave us the biggest signal Monday: lean moved lower despite sharply reduced slaughter. Pork has fewer hogs but larger freezer inventories. Chicken remains steady, although HPAI is back on the radar. Feed futures moved lower, while imports and freight continue to change delivered protein economics.

SHAWN: USDA put last week’s cattle slaughter at four hundred eighty-four thousand, down from five hundred twenty-nine thousand the prior week. Monday’s kill was only ninety-five thousand, compared with one hundred five thousand the prior Monday. Despite the reduced production, USDA called lean boneless and eighty-five percent trimmings mostly sharply lower Monday. Beef trimmings were also sharply lower on light demand and moderate offerings. Fresh nineties averaged four eleven eighty-eight. Eighty-fives three thirty-one seventy-six. Sixty-fives a dollar fifty-five ninety-seven. Fifties eighty-seven fifty-three cents.

HOST: Boxed beef went the other direction. Choice three eighty-oh forty-eight, up a cent sixty-five. Select three fifty-eight twenty-three, up two forty-seven cents. Spread twenty-two twenty-five cents. Hales estimated packer margins last week around one thirty to one sixty a head — sixth consecutive positive week. Recent cattle-price movement and firm boxed beef have improved the packer equation considerably from earlier this year. Longer term, cattle remain tight. August feedlot placements fell nine point two percent from last year. Cow slaughter remains historically low. Heifer slaughter is running below last year. Those constraints haven’t disappeared. They just aren’t the only thing setting today’s beef price.

SHAWN: Imported lean remains an important alternative for U.S. grinders. South American nineties have recently been indicated around three oh seven to three twelve F O B U.S. East Coast. Australian-New Zealand nineties closer to three thirty-five to three forty. Domestic fresh nineties Monday averaged four eleven eighty-eight. That’s roughly a dollar a pound F O B starting gap between South American lean and domestic fresh nineties. But F O B port isn’t delivered plant. Freight matters. Diesel matters. Storage and timing matter. The economics need to be run all the way to the receiving dock.

HOST: Beef trimming imports through September nineteenth totaled seven hundred twenty-four thousand seven hundred twenty-one metric tons, up seventeen point two percent from last year and roughly forty percent from twenty twenty-four. Australia, Brazil, and New Zealand represented more than seventy percent of the total. Boneless beef stocks ended August at three hundred sixty-nine point nine million pounds, up six percent from last year. Total beef stocks were up five percent, although still about three percent below the five-year average. Imports and inventories give buyers options. USDA also called demand light Monday. Don’t confuse more available supply with the whole explanation.

SHAWN: Pork. The September Hogs and Pigs report showed a smaller herd, but productivity continues doing a lot of the work. Total hog inventory one point five percent below last year. Market hogs down one point six. September-November farrowing intentions also below last year. Summer pigs per litter reached a record eleven point nine six, up one point two percent. USDA still projects slightly higher pork production despite fewer animals. Monday’s pork cutout eighty-seven eighty cents. Total pork stocks four hundred thirty-six point three million pounds, up twelve percent from last year. Hams up twenty-six percent. Bellies slightly below last year and down sharply from July. Wholesale pork demand in August was reported seventeen point three percent below August twenty twenty-five, helping explain why fewer hogs haven’t translated into stronger hog values. The hog herd is smaller. Available pork pounds aren’t telling the same story yet.

HOST: USDA described chicken as about steady Monday. W O G supplies light but adequate. Breast meat and tenders steady. Wings showed some pressure. Dark meat mixed. Frozen chicken inventories ended August at seven hundred forty-nine point nine million pounds, down five percent from last year, while production remains ahead of last year year-to-date — up two point three percent. The forward risk is HPAI. September detections are showing up across parts of the northern U.S. as fall migration gets underway. China also continues to restrict non-heat-treated poultry products tied to affected areas. There isn’t a chicken supply problem today. With less product in the freezer and HPAI back on the radar, availability and export eligibility are worth watching.

SHAWN: December corn five twenty-three, down five and a quarter cents. November soybeans twelve eighty-eight and a quarter, down thirty and three-quarters. October meal three sixty-one seventy, down twelve twenty. National harvest progress remains near the five-year average, although fieldwork has slowed in parts of the western Midwest. The board got cheaper Monday. That doesn’t mean every feed buyer’s cash price moved with it. November crude ninety-two sixty, up nineteen cents. For protein buyers, diesel matters more than Monday’s move in crude. Refrigerated freight can quickly erase part of an attractive F O B protein spread.

HOST: The temporary additional beef quota moves into its second tranche Thursday. The program adds three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef trimmings to the twenty twenty-six in-quota quantity. The first one-hundred-thousand-ton tranche closes September thirtieth. The second opens October first. For grinders, that creates additional lower-duty access to imported lean. Actual arrivals, price, and delivered cost matter more than the headline quota number. The current U.S.-China framework includes the possibility of more favorable tariff treatment for certain agricultural products. That is not implemented tariff relief or a physical purchase. For poultry, animal-health eligibility remains a separate hurdle. China can lower the tariff. HPAI can still keep the box out. USDA’s S P U R application deadline is Wednesday, September thirtieth. The five-hundred-million-dollar program provides temporary support to qualifying small, independent, and mid-sized U.S.-owned beef slaughter facilities.

SHAWN: Radar. Fresh nineties are down to four eleven eighty-eight despite last week’s four hundred eighty-four thousand-head kill. USDA is reporting light demand. Imports and boneless inventories give buyers additional options. Don’t assume a small kill automatically means higher lean. Fresh fifties at eighty-seven fifty-three cents are back below ninety cents. The break since Labor Day has materially changed blend economics. Buyers with formulation flexibility should be running the numbers, but don’t assume we’ve found the bottom. South American F O B-port indications are roughly a dollar below Monday’s domestic fresh nineties. The starting spread is real. The delivered spread is what matters. Diesel volatility can quickly change delivered economics, particularly on imports and long-haul domestic loads. Futures moved lower, but harvest delays can keep nearby physical feed from following the board at the same speed.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three eighty. Select three fifty-eight. Fresh nineties four twelve. Fifties eighty-seven cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Monday cattle slaughter ninety-five thousand. Last week four hundred eighty-four thousand. Cattle slaughter year-to-date down seven point seven. Hogs year-to-date down one percent. Chicken production year-to-date up two point three. October live cattle two seventeen forty-five. December corn five twenty-three. November crude ninety-two sixty.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The cheapest protein on paper isn’t always the cheapest protein delivered, and the tightest animal supply doesn’t always produce the tightest product market. For buyers, run the blend, run imported lean all the way to the dock, and don’t assume lower feed futures mean your cash cost moved the same way. Don’t pay a shortage price for a product that isn’t short. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 29, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | September 28, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September twenty-eighth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here is the irony in beef this morning. We are finally reopening another valve for cattle supply just as a new operational risk is showing up at the packing plant. Santa Teresa is open again. Four hundred eight head on day one is not enough to change the market. Stepped-up federal immigration enforcement is disrupting labor and cattle movement across parts of the Southern Plains. Two days do not make a trend. In a cattle market already short on headcount, it does not take much operational disruption to matter.

HOST: Hales estimates heifer slaughter at one hundred thirty-four thousand five hundred — the lowest non-holiday week since May twenty twenty. Year-to-date heifer slaughter eight hundred eleven thousand below last year. Steers down five hundred fifty-two thousand. Weekly cattle slaughter four hundred eighty-four thousand, down thirteen point four percent year over year.

SHAWN: Packer calculated margins plus one sixty to plus one eighty-five — sixth straight positive week. Fresh nineties four ten. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Cheap fat does not make lean cheap. D H S said ice was not conducting worksite operations in Kansas. The response cited by the Texas Tribune did not address Texas or Oklahoma. Cattle availability and cattle actually getting through the plant are two different things. Watch the females, the border, and the plant. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | September 28, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 28, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Here is the irony in beef this morning: we are finally reopening another valve for cattle supply just as a new operational risk is showing up at the packing plant. Santa Teresa is open again. That should eventually help feeder availability, but four hundred eight head on day one is not enough to change the market. At the same time, stepped-up federal immigration enforcement is disrupting labor and cattle movement across parts of the Southern Plains. Whether you support the policy or not, delayed cattle and reduced plant staffing can mean fewer kills, fewer boxes, and higher cost per head. Two days do not make a trend. But in a cattle market already running short on headcount, it does not take much operational disruption to matter.

HOST: The most interesting beef number this morning may not be total slaughter. Hales Trading estimates heifer slaughter at one hundred thirty-four thousand five hundred head — the lowest non-holiday weekly total since May ninth, twenty twenty. Since the beginning of the year, Hales estimates heifer slaughter is eight hundred eleven thousand head below last year, compared with steer slaughter down five hundred fifty-two thousand. That does not prove the herd rebuild is fully underway. After months of talking about what eventually has to happen, fewer females are actually entering slaughter.

SHAWN: Hales believes some beef heifers are already being retained and says retention could accelerate in twenty twenty-seven if winter and spring moisture supports grass. Weekly cattle slaughter fell to four hundred eighty-four thousand, down eight point five percent on the week and thirteen point four year over year. Beef production fell to four hundred thirty point one million pounds, down eight point four on the week and twelve point five year over year. Year-to-date cattle slaughter twenty million, down seven point seven. Year-to-date beef production seventeen point eight five one billion pounds, down five point three.

HOST: The grind. Weekly processing-beef averages. Fresh nineties four ten ninety-three, up two fifty-three cents on the week. Eighty-fives three sixteen sixty-four, down twelve oh three cents. Fifties eighty-seven seventy-seven cents, down a cent nineteen. The ninety-fifty spread is three twenty-three sixteen a pound. Cheap fat does not make lean cheap. Monday’s formulated-sales report: fourteen point four six million pounds of formulated fresh fifty percent trim at eighty-eight eighty-five cents.

SHAWN: Lower kills did not hurt packer economics last week. Hales estimates calculated margins at plus one sixty to plus one eighty-five a head, roughly forty dollars stronger on the week and the sixth consecutive week of positive calculated packer margins. Hales’ weekly Choice average was three seventy-seven fifty, up three twenty-four from the previous week. Fewer cattle through the plant can tighten beef availability. If boxed-beef values strengthen faster than cattle costs, packers can still improve margins on lower throughput.

HOST: Santa Teresa is moving Mexican cattle again. Four hundred eight head on the first day is not enough volume to materially change feeder availability. The reopening matters. The volume matters more. The Texas Cattle Feeders Association, Kansas Livestock Association, and Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association reported workforce disruption and delays moving thousands of cattle to processors amid federal immigration enforcement. D H S said ice was not conducting worksite operations in Kansas. The response cited by the Texas Tribune did not address Texas or Oklahoma. For the market, the consequence is physical: fewer cattle through the plant can mean fewer boxes, disrupted fabrication schedules, and fixed costs spread across fewer head. Cattle held back can also accumulate additional feed, yardage, and logistics expense.

SHAWN: Chicken continues to provide volume. The USDA whole-bird composite averaged a dollar sixteen forty-five, down thirty-six hundredths of a cent on the week. Parts were mixed. Boneless thighs strengthened. Tenderloins, leg quarters, and wings softened. W O Gs generally steady, light supplies, adequate floor stocks. Year-to-date chicken slaughter seven point one oh three billion, up one point one percent. Mexico continues to report no active H P A I outbreaks in commercial poultry, although H five N one and H seven N three detections remain present in wild birds.

HOST: Pork has a different setup. Weekly cutout eighty-seven thirty-one cents, down thirty-two hundredths. Loins, butts, picnics, and ribs declined. Hams and bellies strengthened. Forward supply is beginning to look tighter. Total hog numbers down about one point five percent year over year. Breeding herd roughly one percent lower. June through August farrowings down two point seven. Pig crop down one point five. At the same time, last week’s hog slaughter reached two point five five two million, up two point seven on the week and eight-tenths year over year. Pork production five hundred forty-two point nine million pounds, up three percent on the week and one-tenth year over year. Supply may become more supportive. Demand still has to show up.

SHAWN: Soybeans are the immediate feed-market story Monday morning. The Q T Wright overnight note: corn down five cents, soybeans down twenty-three, wheat down six. China’s tariff-reduction list covers a broad range of U.S. agricultural goods, including corn, wheat, sorghum, meat, dairy, soy oil, and soymeal. Whole soybeans were excluded and remain subject to an additional ten percent tariff. USDA continues to support additional small and regional beef-processing capacity. The Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers program provides five hundred million dollars in temporary support for qualifying small, independent, and mid-sized federally inspected beef slaughter facilities. That can preserve regional slaughter options. It does not replace the throughput of the major fed-beef plants. Diesel at the six fifty-one a gallon national average cited in the pipeline material means cattle hauling and refrigerated freight are absorbing additional cost before product reaches the customer.

HOST: The protein boom is moving beyond nutrition claims and into product design. The New York Times reported thirty-seven thousand two hundred thirty-two products carrying front-of-package protein claims and roughly ninety billion dollars in consumer spending on protein-positioned products over the last year. Cargill’s burger research: fifty-one percent want a burger that is both juicy and fresh. Forty-eight percent cited taste as their primary reason for ordering a burger. Forty percent said high-quality beef influences the decision. Cargill’s sensory work found the leaner patty was generally perceived as drier and less flavorful, while the fattier patty delivered greater juiciness and flavor. That matters with nineties above four ten and fifties below ninety cents. The lowest-cost blend on paper is not always the blend the consumer wants to eat.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Friday Choice three seventy-eight eighty-three, up two seventy-one cents. Select three fifty-five seventy-six, up three sixty-six. Spread twenty-three oh seven cents. Fresh nineties four ten. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. Whole chicken a dollar sixteen. October live cattle two eighteen eighty-seven, down twenty cents. October feeders three thirty-four ninety-two, up three seventeen. October lean hogs seventy-eight twenty-two. December corn five twenty-eight and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen nineteen. November crude ninety-two forty-one, down two twenty.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The most important new beef signal is not simply that slaughter was light. Heifer slaughter is giving us tangible evidence to watch for retention, while packers are profitable enough to withstand lower throughput. Mexican cattle are beginning to move again, and the labor disruption is reminding the market that cattle availability and cattle actually getting through the plant are two different things. Pork has a tighter forward supply setup but still needs demand. Chicken continues to provide volume. For beef buyers, watch the females, the border, and the plant. Those three flows may tell us more about where supply is headed than another week of headline cattle prices. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 28, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | September 25, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September twenty-fifth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Kansas and the Hogs and Pigs report tell two different stories. National Beef adjusted shifts in Liberal. Cattle shipments have been delayed. That can become a problem for next week’s production schedule, regardless of where the cutout closed. USDA reported a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. Those missing pigs won’t be there when they would ordinarily reach market. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck.

HOST: Thursday cattle slaughter ninety thousand versus one hundred seven thousand the previous Thursday. Year-to-date down seven point seven percent. USDA does not establish how much of Thursday’s drop is immigration enforcement. Santa Teresa reopened Thursday. That helps feeder supply. It does not replace finished cattle this week.

SHAWN: Herd seventy-four point three million, down one point five. Breeding herd smallest September since twenty thirteen. Record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Summer pig crop still smaller. Fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Imported nineties around three nineteen C I F East Coast. About eighty cents between references — not a confirmed delivered saving. Confirm next week’s beef loads. Check pork coverage against the weeks you actually need product. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | September 25, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Kansas and the Hogs and Pigs report tell two different stories, but both matter if you’re buying protein for the fourth quarter. National Beef adjusted shifts in Liberal, cattle shipments have been delayed, and buyers are dealing with uncertainty over beef deliveries. That can become a problem for next week’s production schedule, regardless of where the cutout closed. On the pork side, USDA reported a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. It doesn’t mean we’re short of pork today, but those missing pigs won’t be available when they would ordinarily reach market. With holiday production, transportation, and year-end inventories ahead, I’d be confirming beef deliveries and checking pork coverage against the weeks I actually need product. A softer price is useful, but only if the product is there when the plant needs it. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck.

HOST: Southwest Kansas processing disruptions are affecting cattle movement and beef shipment reliability. Santa Teresa reopened Thursday, restoring an important Mexican cattle supply channel. USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report showed fewer breeding animals and a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. Imported lean remains an important alternative for ground beef manufacturers as domestic lean supplies remain constrained.

SHAWN: National Beef adjusted shift starting times at its Liberal, Kansas, facility on September twenty-third amid increased federal immigration enforcement across southwest Kansas. The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, and Texas Cattle Feeders Association subsequently reported thousands of delayed fed-cattle shipments and millions of dollars in associated losses and additional costs. USDA estimated Thursday’s cattle slaughter at ninety thousand, versus one hundred seven thousand the previous Thursday. Week-to-date three hundred eighty-nine thousand, down from four hundred twenty thousand the preceding week. Year-to-date nineteen point nine one million, down seven point seven percent. The longer-term slaughter contraction predates this week’s disruption. USDA’s national figures do not establish how much of Thursday’s decline resulted specifically from immigration enforcement.

HOST: Heavy carcasses continue providing additional pounds. Steer carcass weights averaged nine hundred seventy-seven pounds for the week ending September twelfth, up eighteen pounds year over year. Thursday’s wholesale market finished lower. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. For buyers, the near-term issue is delivery reliability. A lower cutout provides little relief when a committed shipment cannot reach the production line.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa reopened September twenty-fourth following restrictions associated with New World screwworm. That restores an important feeder-cattle supply channel under enhanced inspection and animal-health protocols. Santa Teresa helps replenish cattle entering the U.S. production system. It does not immediately replace finished cattle or resolve this week’s Kansas processing interruptions.

HOST: Dairy cows have accounted for about fifty-seven percent of U.S. cow slaughter in twenty twenty-six, according to Len Steiner’s September twenty-fourth Daily Livestock Report. The dairy herd reached nine point seven one million head in August, its highest level since nineteen ninety-two. Additional dairy culls have helped supply domestic manufacturing beef while beef-cow slaughter remains constrained. Dairy herd expansion is slowing, making imported lean particularly relevant to ground beef manufacturers.

SHAWN: USDA counted seventy-four point three oh two million hogs and pigs on September first, about one point five percent below last year. The breeding herd declined to five point eight seven five million — its smallest September inventory since twenty thirteen, according to economist Lee Schulz. The June–August pig crop declined to thirty-four point five oh eight million, despite producers saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Fewer sows farrowing outweighed the productivity improvement. Schulz projected modest average profitability for twenty twenty-six and losses under his twenty twenty-seven futures assumptions. Purdue’s Michael Langemeier estimated swine finishing feed costs could increase about nine point seven percent in twenty twenty-seven using early-September futures. The smaller pig crop is a forward supply consideration. It does not establish an immediate shortage of holiday pork.

HOST: Pork export sales increased seventeen percent to thirty-five thousand three hundred metric tons for the week ending September seventeenth. Physical shipments rose sixteen percent to thirty-two thousand one hundred. Mexico led with fifteen thousand eight hundred metric tons, then China at six thousand nine hundred. Thursday’s pork cutout declined to eighty-six cents, with bellies losing three thirty-three cents. National negotiated hogs finished near seventy-nine cents. The Hogs and Pigs report was released after Thursday’s session. Those prices are the completed market preceding the report, not the market’s reaction to it.

SHAWN: Chicken. USDA reported one hundred sixty-eight point oh one three million chickens slaughtered in the week ending September nineteenth, down four percent from the comparable twenty twenty-five week. Ready-to-cook production declined six percent. Year-to-date production remained one point four percent above last year, at about thirty-two point one six billion pounds. Component prices continue to diverge. Boneless skinless thighs around a dollar fifty-four, up thirty-four cents over the preceding week. Jumbo breasts near a dollar twenty-one. Wings around a dollar. USDA described the broader chicken market as generally steady. Two additional Minnesota HPAI detections affected commercial meat turkey flocks totaling fifty-one thousand five hundred birds. A resulting reduction in national chicken production has not been established.

HOST: Thursday USDA: domestic fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Imported nineties indicated around three nineteen C I F East Coast. That’s about an eighty-cent difference between price references. It does not represent a confirmed delivered savings figure. Domestic fed cattle generate fatty trim. Ground beef manufacturers need lean to hit finished-product specs. Imported lean is another sourcing option when domestic cow and bull beef supplies are constrained. Nevil Speer in Beef Magazine cites Kansas State’s Brian Coffey describing imported lean trimmings as complementary to domestic beef supplies. Seasonal processing in Australia and New Zealand could add manufacturing beef. Renewed Asian demand may compete for that supply.

SHAWN: Weekly U.S. beef export sales declined thirty-four percent to nine thousand four hundred metric tons, while actual shipments increased twenty-two percent to twelve thousand one hundred. Pork export sales and shipments both improved. New sales and physical shipments measure different stages of export demand and should not be treated interchangeably.

HOST: The administration’s August proclamation increased the twenty twenty-six in-quota quantity for specified lean beef trimmings by three hundred thousand metric tons, in three tranches beginning September first. The proposed BEEF Act would suspend that additional authorization and establish a domestic beef supply advisory board. It has been introduced, not enacted. MICA reminded importers that Australia’s W T O quota and qualifying duty-free access under the Australia free-trade agreement are separate. Australia’s combined twenty twenty-six entitlement totals four hundred forty-nine thousand nine hundred nine metric tons. Filling Australia’s W T O quota alone does not automatically end qualifying free-trade access.

SHAWN: December corn five twenty-seven and a half, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen seventeen and a half. October meal up five eighty to three seventy-six ten. November crude up two forty-five to ninety-four sixty-one. Lower corn prices did not translate into lower costs across every feed component. Elevated energy remains a consideration for livestock transportation and delivered protein costs.

HOST: Radar. Confirm next week’s beef allocations and delivery schedules where southwest Kansas disruptions may affect committed product. Reconcile fourth-quarter and early twenty twenty-seven pork requirements against actual production weeks. The smaller pig crop warrants attention without assuming an immediate shortage. Evaluate imported lean, domestic nineties, and available fatty trim together using comparable delivered costs and finished-product specifications.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Eighty-fives two seventy-six. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout eighty-six cents. Bellies eighty-seven cents, down three thirty-three. October live cattle two nineteen oh seven, down a dollar eighty-five. December corn five twenty-seven and a half. November crude ninety-four sixty-one. Thursday slaughter: cattle ninety thousand, down seven point seven year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-nine thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point five million,...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Closing Bell Friday | September 25, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Kansas and the Hogs and Pigs report tell two different stories, but both matter if you’re buying protein for the fourth quarter. National Beef adjusted shifts in Liberal, cattle shipments have been delayed, and buyers are dealing with uncertainty over beef deliveries. That can become a problem for next week’s production schedule, regardless of where the cutout closed. On the pork side, USDA reported a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. It doesn’t mean we’re short of pork today, but those missing pigs won’t be available when they would ordinarily reach market. With holiday production, transportation, and year-end inventories ahead, I’d be confirming beef deliveries and checking pork coverage against the weeks I actually need product. A softer price is useful, but only if the product is there when the plant needs it. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck.

HOST: Southwest Kansas processing disruptions are affecting cattle movement and beef shipment reliability. Santa Teresa reopened Thursday, restoring an important Mexican cattle supply channel. USDA’s September Hogs and Pigs report showed fewer breeding animals and a smaller pig crop despite record productivity. Imported lean remains an important alternative for ground beef manufacturers as domestic lean supplies remain constrained.

SHAWN: National Beef adjusted shift starting times at its Liberal, Kansas, facility on September twenty-third amid increased federal immigration enforcement across southwest Kansas. The Kansas Livestock Association, Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association, and Texas Cattle Feeders Association subsequently reported thousands of delayed fed-cattle shipments and millions of dollars in associated losses and additional costs. USDA estimated Thursday’s cattle slaughter at ninety thousand, versus one hundred seven thousand the previous Thursday. Week-to-date three hundred eighty-nine thousand, down from four hundred twenty thousand the preceding week. Year-to-date nineteen point nine one million, down seven point seven percent. The longer-term slaughter contraction predates this week’s disruption. USDA’s national figures do not establish how much of Thursday’s decline resulted specifically from immigration enforcement.

HOST: Heavy carcasses continue providing additional pounds. Steer carcass weights averaged nine hundred seventy-seven pounds for the week ending September twelfth, up eighteen pounds year over year. Thursday’s wholesale market finished lower. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. For buyers, the near-term issue is delivery reliability. A lower cutout provides little relief when a committed shipment cannot reach the production line.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa reopened September twenty-fourth following restrictions associated with New World screwworm. That restores an important feeder-cattle supply channel under enhanced inspection and animal-health protocols. Santa Teresa helps replenish cattle entering the U.S. production system. It does not immediately replace finished cattle or resolve this week’s Kansas processing interruptions.

HOST: Dairy cows have accounted for about fifty-seven percent of U.S. cow slaughter in twenty twenty-six, according to Len Steiner’s September twenty-fourth Daily Livestock Report. The dairy herd reached nine point seven one million head in August, its highest level since nineteen ninety-two. Additional dairy culls have helped supply domestic manufacturing beef while beef-cow slaughter remains constrained. Dairy herd expansion is slowing, making imported lean particularly relevant to ground beef manufacturers.

SHAWN: USDA counted seventy-four point three oh two million hogs and pigs on September first, about one point five percent below last year. The breeding herd declined to five point eight seven five million — its smallest September inventory since twenty thirteen, according to economist Lee Schulz. The June–August pig crop declined to thirty-four point five oh eight million, despite producers saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Fewer sows farrowing outweighed the productivity improvement. Schulz projected modest average profitability for twenty twenty-six and losses under his twenty twenty-seven futures assumptions. Purdue’s Michael Langemeier estimated swine finishing feed costs could increase about nine point seven percent in twenty twenty-seven using early-September futures. The smaller pig crop is a forward supply consideration. It does not establish an immediate shortage of holiday pork.

HOST: Pork export sales increased seventeen percent to thirty-five thousand three hundred metric tons for the week ending September seventeenth. Physical shipments rose sixteen percent to thirty-two thousand one hundred. Mexico led with fifteen thousand eight hundred metric tons, then China at six thousand nine hundred. Thursday’s pork cutout declined to eighty-six cents, with bellies losing three thirty-three cents. National negotiated hogs finished near seventy-nine cents. The Hogs and Pigs report was released after Thursday’s session. Those prices are the completed market preceding the report, not the market’s reaction to it.

SHAWN: Chicken. USDA reported one hundred sixty-eight point oh one three million chickens slaughtered in the week ending September nineteenth, down four percent from the comparable twenty twenty-five week. Ready-to-cook production declined six percent. Year-to-date production remained one point four percent above last year, at about thirty-two point one six billion pounds. Component prices continue to diverge. Boneless skinless thighs around a dollar fifty-four, up thirty-four cents over the preceding week. Jumbo breasts near a dollar twenty-one. Wings around a dollar. USDA described the broader chicken market as generally steady. Two additional Minnesota HPAI detections affected commercial meat turkey flocks totaling fifty-one thousand five hundred birds. A resulting reduction in national chicken production has not been established.

HOST: Thursday USDA: domestic fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Imported nineties indicated around three nineteen C I F East Coast. That’s about an eighty-cent difference between price references. It does not represent a confirmed delivered savings figure. Domestic fed cattle generate fatty trim. Ground beef manufacturers need lean to hit finished-product specs. Imported lean is another sourcing option when domestic cow and bull beef supplies are constrained. Nevil Speer in Beef Magazine cites Kansas State’s Brian Coffey describing imported lean trimmings as complementary to domestic beef supplies. Seasonal processing in Australia and New Zealand could add manufacturing beef. Renewed Asian demand may compete for that supply.

SHAWN: Weekly U.S. beef export sales declined thirty-four percent to nine thousand four hundred metric tons, while actual shipments increased twenty-two percent to twelve thousand one hundred. Pork export sales and shipments both improved. New sales and physical shipments measure different stages of export demand and should not be treated interchangeably.

HOST: The administration’s August proclamation increased the twenty twenty-six in-quota quantity for specified lean beef trimmings by three hundred thousand metric tons, in three tranches beginning September first. The proposed BEEF Act would suspend that additional authorization and establish a domestic beef supply advisory board. It has been introduced, not enacted. MICA reminded importers that Australia’s W T O quota and qualifying duty-free access under the Australia free-trade agreement are separate. Australia’s combined twenty twenty-six entitlement totals four hundred forty-nine thousand nine hundred nine metric tons. Filling Australia’s W T O quota alone does not automatically end qualifying free-trade access.

SHAWN: December corn five twenty-seven and a half, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen seventeen and a half. October meal up five eighty to three seventy-six ten. November crude up two forty-five to ninety-four sixty-one. Lower corn prices did not translate into lower costs across every feed component. Elevated energy remains a consideration for livestock transportation and delivered protein costs.

HOST: Radar. Confirm next week’s beef allocations and delivery schedules where southwest Kansas disruptions may affect committed product. Reconcile fourth-quarter and early twenty twenty-seven pork requirements against actual production weeks. The smaller pig crop warrants attention without assuming an immediate shortage. Evaluate imported lean, domestic nineties, and available fatty trim together using comparable delivered costs and finished-product specifications.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties three ninety-nine. Eighty-fives two seventy-six. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout eighty-six cents. Bellies eighty-seven cents, down three thirty-three. October live cattle two nineteen oh seven, down a dollar eighty-five. December corn five twenty-seven and a half. November crude ninety-four sixty-one. Thursday slaughter: cattle ninety thousand, down seven point seven year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-nine thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point five million, up one point one.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Kansas creates an immediate beef delivery concern. Santa Teresa restores a feeder-cattle supply channel on a different timeline. USDA’s smaller pig crop gives pork buyers a reason to review forward coverage against their actual production requirements. Before holiday production begins, know which beef loads are committed, which pork weeks still need coverage, and what your finished ground beef blend will cost. A softer market doesn’t guarantee a full truck. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 25, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Fewer hogs. Record productivity.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September twenty-fifth. From The Sparks Group. USDA Hogs and Pigs.

SHAWN: I’ve spent plenty of time talking about cattle numbers and how heavier carcasses have helped make up for fewer animals. Yesterday’s report reminded me that pork is a different animal, literally. The hog herd is down two percent. Producers saved a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. Farrowings are declining faster than those gains can make up for. Hog carcass weights haven’t changed much in more than a decade. Don’t count on the hog industry pulling that same rabbit out of the hat.

HOST: Total inventory seventy-four point three million — about one point one million fewer than last September. Summer pig crop down one point five percent, about five hundred thirty-six thousand fewer pigs. Fall farrowings intended down one point eight. Winter intended up two point one. The summer crop is a fact. The winter recovery is still an intention.

SHAWN: Steer dressed weights are up almost seventeen percent over twenty years. Chicken live weights up twenty-three. Hog dressed weights: two hundred fourteen pounds in twenty fourteen, two hundred fifteen in twenty twenty-five. One pound in eleven years. If the hogs aren’t there, history doesn’t give us much reason to expect heavier carcasses to replace the missing production. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Special Report | September 25, 2026

Fewer hogs. Record productivity.

USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs — September 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 25, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA’s quarterly Hogs and Pigs report: fewer hogs, record productivity.

SHAWN: I’ve spent plenty of time talking about cattle numbers and how heavier carcasses have helped make up for fewer animals. Yesterday’s Hogs and Pigs report reminded me that pork is a different animal, literally. The hog herd is down two percent, but producers are saving a record eleven point nine six pigs per litter. That’s impressive productivity. The problem is that farrowings are declining faster than those gains can make up for. And unlike cattle, hog carcass weights haven’t changed much in more than a decade. Chicken has gone the other direction, producing considerably more pounds per bird. Now, before anybody starts celebrating higher pork prices, remember that somebody still has to buy the meat. We’ve been making up for fewer cattle with heavier carcasses. Don’t count on the hog industry pulling that same rabbit out of the hat.

HOST: USDA’s September twenty-fourth Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimates the U.S. herd at seventy-four point three oh two million head — about one point one million fewer than last September. Market hog inventories declined across every weight category. Record litter productivity partially offset reduced summer farrowings. Fall farrowing intentions remain lower. Winter intentions suggest some recovery. The commercial distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. Unlike cattle and chicken, pork has seen relatively little recent growth in pounds per slaughter animal. That makes the smaller hog population particularly relevant when evaluating pork production and forward raw-material availability.

SHAWN: The numbers. Total hogs and pigs seventy-four point three oh two million versus seventy-five point four three eight last year — down one point five percent. USDA rounds the headline inventory decline to two percent. Breeding inventory five point eight seven five million, down one percent. Market hogs sixty-eight point four two seven million, down one point five. Hogs one hundred eighty pounds and over twelve point four four three million, down one point six. Under fifty pounds twenty-one point eight six six million, down one point six. June through August farrowings two point eight eight six million, down two point seven. Summer pig crop thirty-four point five oh eight million, down one point five. Pigs saved per litter eleven point nine six, up from eleven point eight two — a record.

HOST: Summer farrowings declined about seventy-nine thousand head. The productivity gain helped cushion that. Nevertheless, the summer pig crop declined about five hundred thirty-six thousand head. Animals one hundred eighty pounds and over declined about two hundred seven thousand. The combined population under one hundred twenty pounds fell about six hundred fifty-two thousand. September inventories did increase two percent from June, so the normal seasonal buildup is taking place. There are simply fewer animals in the production system than a year ago. The industry is getting better at producing pigs. It just isn’t producing enough additional pigs per litter to completely offset fewer farrowings.

SHAWN: We’ve talked extensively about how heavier cattle have helped offset declining slaughter. Chicken has followed a similar longer-term path. Pork is a different story. Twenty years of animal weights. Steer dressed weight from eight hundred seventeen pounds in two thousand five to nine hundred fifty-five in twenty twenty-five — up sixteen point nine percent. Hog dressed weight from two hundred one to two hundred fifteen — up seven percent. Chicken average live weight from five point three seven to six point six two — up twenty-three point three percent. The longer-term gains in hog weights are real. The more revealing comparison is recent history. Average hog dressed weights reached about two hundred fourteen pounds in twenty fourteen. By twenty twenty-five, they averaged about two hundred fifteen. One pound in eleven years. Cattle carcass weights have continued climbing. Chicken has seen substantial long-term weight gains. Pork hasn’t had that same recent increase in pounds per slaughter animal.

HOST: If cattle slaughter declines, heavier carcasses can replace a portion of the missing beef tonnage. We’ve been watching that happen. If hog slaughter declines, recent history doesn’t give us much reason to expect the same degree of compensation from heavier carcasses. Pork’s productivity story has been more pigs per litter, not significantly more pounds per hog. That’s what makes the September inventory report more meaningful than the headline decline alone.

SHAWN: What’s coming in twenty twenty-seven. September through November intended farrowings two point eight five five million, down one point eight percent — about fifty-two thousand fewer fall farrowings. December twenty twenty-six through February twenty twenty-seven intended farrowings two point seven nine five million, up two point one percent — about fifty-eight thousand additional winter farrowings. The smaller summer pig crop is already established. Reduced fall intentions extend the lower-production picture into another group of hogs that would be marketed during twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions suggest some recovery, but that remains planned production rather than pigs already in the system. I wouldn’t read this report as a warning that pork will be short throughout twenty twenty-seven. But I wouldn’t dismiss the smaller summer pig crop simply because winter intentions show some recovery, either. The summer pig crop is a reported production fact. The winter recovery is still an intention.

HOST: Regional supply. Iowa reported about seven hundred thousand fewer hogs. North Carolina declined four hundred thousand. Illinois fell three hundred thousand. Minnesota moved the other way, adding about four hundred thousand. USDA also reports that hogs under contract owned by operations with more than five thousand head, but raised by contractees, represented fifty-six percent of national inventory, up four percent from the previous year. The national decline is not evenly distributed.

SHAWN: Radar. Market hog inventories are down about one point five percent, and pork doesn’t have the same recent carcass-weight cushion we’ve been discussing in beef. If fewer hogs reach the packing plant and carcass weights remain relatively stable, fewer pounds of pork will follow. For processors, fewer hogs also raise questions about plant utilization and the cost of spreading fixed expenses across available production. The smaller summer pig crop and lower fall farrowing intentions deserve attention for procurement extending into twenty twenty-seven. Winter intentions offer some potential recovery. Buyers shouldn’t treat planned production later in the year as though those animals are already available.

HOST: A smaller hog population can influence livestock procurement costs without producing equivalent increases in wholesale pork values. A packer can pay more for a hog without getting proportionately more for the pork. Loins, bellies, picnics, and trim still have to find buyers at prices that support the carcass value. Fewer hogs don’t guarantee better packer margins. Depending on livestock costs and wholesale demand, the opposite can happen. Beef remains constrained by cattle availability. Chicken has benefited from substantial gains in pounds per bird. If pork production contracts, its relative value against beef and chicken becomes increasingly relevant. For customers with formulation flexibility, the relationship among pork trim, beef trim, and chicken raw-material costs will be worth following. The inventory report tells us how many hogs are in the system. Slaughter, production, and the USDA pork markets will tell us what that means for the cost of meat.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The September report confirms about one point one million fewer hogs than a year ago. Producers are getting more pigs per litter, but those productivity gains haven’t completely offset fewer farrowings. The bigger distinction is what happens when those hogs reach the packing plant. We’ve watched heavier cattle carcasses help offset declining slaughter, and chicken has experienced substantial long-term gains in weight per bird. Pork hasn’t followed that same recent path. If the hogs aren’t there, history doesn’t give us much reason to expect heavier carcasses to replace the missing production. The pork industry has gotten better at producing pigs. It hasn’t gotten substantially better at producing more pounds per hog. That’s what makes this inventory report worth paying attention to. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 25, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. Everybody wants affordable beef. Before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Southwest Kansas processing is under workforce uncertainty. USDA Wednesday cattle slaughter ninety-four thousand. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. How much of that is immigration enforcement is still unverified.

SHAWN: Sterling has feedlots at minus three twenty-four and packers at plus one thirty-nine. Domestic fresh nineties four ten FOB plant. Platts imported nineties three nineteen CIF East Coast. Ninety-one cents of quoted spread — not ninety-one cents of delivered savings. Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central. Pre-report near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. The BEEF Act would put Congress back over the three-hundred-thousand-ton window. It is not law.

HOST: All six pork primals lower. Chicken slaughter up one point one percent year-to-date. Crude ninety-two. Distillate inventories down twelve point seven percent.

SHAWN: The decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. Until you’ve shoveled inedible byproducts beneath a slaughter floor in a hundred-degree-plus heat just to keep the line running, or spent ten hours inventorying meat in a minus-ten-degree blast freezer while it’s over a hundred outside in West Texas, you don’t really understand the work behind putting meat on America’s dinner tables. You don’t forget those days. Now immigration enforcement is raising workforce concerns in southwest Kansas. Congress is debating beef imports while domestic fresh ninety C L sits ninety-one cents above imported lean. USDA is working to rebuild the cattle herd while suggesting consumers consider other proteins when beef gets expensive. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. At this rate, I’m going to need a second mortgage just to fill up the truck. Everybody wants affordable beef. But before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Immigration enforcement raises workforce concerns across southwest Kansas beef processing as cattle slaughter remains down seven point six percent year-to-date. Feedlot losses deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. Congress enters the beef import debate with domestic fresh nineties priced ninety-one cents above imported lean. Diesel costs, Black Sea grain disruptions, and major protein investments in Southeast Asia add to an already busy week.

SHAWN: KMUW reported Thursday morning that New Frontiers, a southwest Kansas civic organization, alleged ice agents entered National Beef’s Dodge City facility Wednesday and removed employees from the production line. NPR’s Midwest Newsroom could not independently confirm that account. National Beef’s Liberal operation separately altered employee starting times. A Cargill employee in Dodge City described coworkers not reporting to work. Reuters reported traders linking some reduced slaughter to employees staying home. The amount of production lost specifically because of immigration enforcement remains unverified.

HOST: USDA estimated Wednesday’s cattle slaughter at ninety-four thousand, versus one hundred two thousand the previous Wednesday and one hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred fourteen a year ago. Week-to-date two hundred ninety-nine thousand against three hundred fifty-one thousand one hundred nine last year. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. Those numbers establish the reduction in processing, but not its precise cause. Cargill’s Fort Morgan facility is recovering gradually. Steiner cited media reports placing operations at about twenty-five percent of expected capacity. Fed cattle slaughter totaled four hundred twenty-four thousand last week, down five point seven percent year over year. Steiner projects about four hundred sixteen thousand this week.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates feedlot losses widened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head, versus three oh seven nineteen the previous week and a profit of six twenty-three eighty-two in the comparable week last year. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated two forty-five breakeven against an average Choice steer of two twenty-one eighty-eight. Hales estimates packer margins one twenty-five to one fifty. Steiner reports improved processing economics since early August through higher comprehensive beef values, lower cattle acquisition costs, and about twenty dollars a head more in byproduct value. These are modeled industry estimates, not individual packer financial results.

HOST: Choice closed three seventy-seven, down a cent fifty-eight. Select three fifty-two, down five fifty-one. Spread twenty-five cents. Choice deckle-off briskets averaged four twenty-nine. Kansas City barbecue operators continue reporting elevated beef costs. Hales places the current Choice brisket assessment about six cents below its comparable year-earlier level. A single wholesale cut does not represent a restaurant’s entire beef purchasing and operating costs.

SHAWN: Chicken. Wednesday slaughter thirty-four point nine five eight million birds. Year-to-date about seven point oh three four billion, up one point one percent. Nielsen I Q data reported by Meat and Poultry show turkey reaching eighty-seven percent of U.S. households. Ground turkey generated two point one billion in retail sales, up seven point seven percent, while volume declined one point seven. Higher dollar sales do not necessarily represent increased pounds consumed. Agri Star has resumed cattle and poultry slaughter after the July fire at Postville, Iowa. About four hundred of its former six hundred employees have returned. Current production volumes have not been disclosed.

HOST: Pork cutout declined a dollar seventeen to eighty-six eighty-two Wednesday. All six primals moved lower. Ribs down two sixty-eight. Picnics two sixty-five. Hams two forty-four. Bellies eased seven cents. Fresh forty-twos seventy-eight cents. Seventy-twos ninety-eight cents. USDA reported three hundred twenty-two point six four negotiated pork loads, including thirty-five point three four loads of trim and processing pork. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central today. QT Market Center pre-report estimates put total hogs, breeding hogs, market hogs, and the June–August pig crop near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. Those are analyst estimates, not USDA’s results. Bacon remains about seven billion in annual retail sales.

SHAWN: Platts reports Brazilian beef exports to China reached one hundred three point five percent of Brazil’s twenty twenty-six quota as of September twenty-first. China is auditing seventeen Brazilian beef, pork, and poultry facilities through September twenty-eighth. Uruguay has indicated willingness to allow Brazil to use part of its unused Chinese beef quota. Beijing has not approved the arrangement. Brazilian exporters are encountering weaker Chinese demand and elevated imported beef inventories. The European Commission has accepted Brazil’s poultry antimicrobial control protocols. Further formal approval remains necessary before shipments resume.

HOST: Black Sea disruptions are complicating grain movement. Reuters reporting via QT Market Center: Russian September wheat exports could fall to about one million metric tons, versus five point seven million a year earlier. Alternative Ukrainian routes can add about fifty dollars a metric ton. Coceral reduced its EU corn forecast to forty-eight point six million metric tons from fifty-two point seven in July. Tyson expects international sales to exceed last year’s two point three billion. JBS announced a proposed two point five billion partnership involving its Oceania operations and Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. Cargill announced another sixty million for its Thai poultry and feed operations.

SHAWN: Representatives Zach Nunn and Gabe Vasquez introduced the bipartisan BEEF Act, which would reverse the administration’s expanded beef import measure unless Congress approves it. It also proposes a Beef Import and Domestic Supply Advisory Board focused on rebuilding domestic cattle production. The administration’s temporary expansion is up to three hundred thousand metric tons of imported lean trimmings in three tranches from September through November. The BEEF Act has not been enacted. USDA is separately pursuing heifer-retention and domestic supply initiatives. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has also suggested consumers consider chicken, pork, salmon, and eggs when beef becomes too expensive. Herd rebuilding and near-term imported lean procurement address different supply timelines.

HOST: The ninety C L differential. Domestic fresh nineties, USDA September twenty-third: four ten twenty-three FOB plant. Imported nineties, Platts September twenty-second: three nineteen CIF East Coast. Indicative differential ninety-one twenty-three cents. That is not an automatic delivered saving. Product condition, origin, transaction basis, tariffs, inland freight, storage, specifications, and delivery timing still need to be considered. For buyers managing ground-beef formulations, that quoted-price difference is commercially significant. DTN reports U.S. distillate inventories at one hundred seven point four million barrels, down twelve point seven percent year over year. Freight assumptions matter when translating a quoted product price into an actual delivered cost. What is available? What does it cost delivered? When will it arrive? Does it meet the customer’s specification?

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-seven. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four ten. Eighty-fives three thirty-five. Fifties eighty-four cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-two, up two fifteen. Feeders three thirty-three thirty-two, up five thirty. December corn five twenty-nine. November crude ninety-two sixteen. Wednesday slaughter: cattle ninety-four thousand, down seven point six year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-six thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-four point nine six million, up one point one. Year-to-date production pounds have not been verified and are not being estimated from...]]>HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. Until you’ve shoveled inedible byproducts beneath a slaughter floor in a hundred-degree-plus heat just to keep the line running, or spent ten hours inventorying meat in a minus-ten-degree blast freezer while it’s over a hundred outside in West Texas, you don’t really understand the work behind putting meat on America’s dinner tables. You don’t forget those days. Now immigration enforcement is raising workforce concerns in southwest Kansas. Congress is debating beef imports while domestic fresh ninety C L sits ninety-one cents above imported lean. USDA is working to rebuild the cattle herd while suggesting consumers consider other proteins when beef gets expensive. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. At this rate, I’m going to need a second mortgage just to fill up the truck. Everybody wants affordable beef. But before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

HOST: Immigration enforcement raises workforce concerns across southwest Kansas beef processing as cattle slaughter remains down seven point six percent year-to-date. Feedlot losses deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. Congress enters the beef import debate with domestic fresh nineties priced ninety-one cents above imported lean. Diesel costs, Black Sea grain disruptions, and major protein investments in Southeast Asia add to an already busy week.

SHAWN: KMUW reported Thursday morning that New Frontiers, a southwest Kansas civic organization, alleged ice agents entered National Beef’s Dodge City facility Wednesday and removed employees from the production line. NPR’s Midwest Newsroom could not independently confirm that account. National Beef’s Liberal operation separately altered employee starting times. A Cargill employee in Dodge City described coworkers not reporting to work. Reuters reported traders linking some reduced slaughter to employees staying home. The amount of production lost specifically because of immigration enforcement remains unverified.

HOST: USDA estimated Wednesday’s cattle slaughter at ninety-four thousand, versus one hundred two thousand the previous Wednesday and one hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred fourteen a year ago. Week-to-date two hundred ninety-nine thousand against three hundred fifty-one thousand one hundred nine last year. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. Those numbers establish the reduction in processing, but not its precise cause. Cargill’s Fort Morgan facility is recovering gradually. Steiner cited media reports placing operations at about twenty-five percent of expected capacity. Fed cattle slaughter totaled four hundred twenty-four thousand last week, down five point seven percent year over year. Steiner projects about four hundred sixteen thousand this week.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates feedlot losses widened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head, versus three oh seven nineteen the previous week and a profit of six twenty-three eighty-two in the comparable week last year. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated two forty-five breakeven against an average Choice steer of two twenty-one eighty-eight. Hales estimates packer margins one twenty-five to one fifty. Steiner reports improved processing economics since early August through higher comprehensive beef values, lower cattle acquisition costs, and about twenty dollars a head more in byproduct value. These are modeled industry estimates, not individual packer financial results.

HOST: Choice closed three seventy-seven, down a cent fifty-eight. Select three fifty-two, down five fifty-one. Spread twenty-five cents. Choice deckle-off briskets averaged four twenty-nine. Kansas City barbecue operators continue reporting elevated beef costs. Hales places the current Choice brisket assessment about six cents below its comparable year-earlier level. A single wholesale cut does not represent a restaurant’s entire beef purchasing and operating costs.

SHAWN: Chicken. Wednesday slaughter thirty-four point nine five eight million birds. Year-to-date about seven point oh three four billion, up one point one percent. Nielsen I Q data reported by Meat and Poultry show turkey reaching eighty-seven percent of U.S. households. Ground turkey generated two point one billion in retail sales, up seven point seven percent, while volume declined one point seven. Higher dollar sales do not necessarily represent increased pounds consumed. Agri Star has resumed cattle and poultry slaughter after the July fire at Postville, Iowa. About four hundred of its former six hundred employees have returned. Current production volumes have not been disclosed.

HOST: Pork cutout declined a dollar seventeen to eighty-six eighty-two Wednesday. All six primals moved lower. Ribs down two sixty-eight. Picnics two sixty-five. Hams two forty-four. Bellies eased seven cents. Fresh forty-twos seventy-eight cents. Seventy-twos ninety-eight cents. USDA reported three hundred twenty-two point six four negotiated pork loads, including thirty-five point three four loads of trim and processing pork. Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central today. QT Market Center pre-report estimates put total hogs, breeding hogs, market hogs, and the June–August pig crop near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. Those are analyst estimates, not USDA’s results. Bacon remains about seven billion in annual retail sales.

SHAWN: Platts reports Brazilian beef exports to China reached one hundred three point five percent of Brazil’s twenty twenty-six quota as of September twenty-first. China is auditing seventeen Brazilian beef, pork, and poultry facilities through September twenty-eighth. Uruguay has indicated willingness to allow Brazil to use part of its unused Chinese beef quota. Beijing has not approved the arrangement. Brazilian exporters are encountering weaker Chinese demand and elevated imported beef inventories. The European Commission has accepted Brazil’s poultry antimicrobial control protocols. Further formal approval remains necessary before shipments resume.

HOST: Black Sea disruptions are complicating grain movement. Reuters reporting via QT Market Center: Russian September wheat exports could fall to about one million metric tons, versus five point seven million a year earlier. Alternative Ukrainian routes can add about fifty dollars a metric ton. Coceral reduced its EU corn forecast to forty-eight point six million metric tons from fifty-two point seven in July. Tyson expects international sales to exceed last year’s two point three billion. JBS announced a proposed two point five billion partnership involving its Oceania operations and Indonesia’s sovereign wealth fund. Cargill announced another sixty million for its Thai poultry and feed operations.

SHAWN: Representatives Zach Nunn and Gabe Vasquez introduced the bipartisan BEEF Act, which would reverse the administration’s expanded beef import measure unless Congress approves it. It also proposes a Beef Import and Domestic Supply Advisory Board focused on rebuilding domestic cattle production. The administration’s temporary expansion is up to three hundred thousand metric tons of imported lean trimmings in three tranches from September through November. The BEEF Act has not been enacted. USDA is separately pursuing heifer-retention and domestic supply initiatives. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins has also suggested consumers consider chicken, pork, salmon, and eggs when beef becomes too expensive. Herd rebuilding and near-term imported lean procurement address different supply timelines.

HOST: The ninety C L differential. Domestic fresh nineties, USDA September twenty-third: four ten twenty-three FOB plant. Imported nineties, Platts September twenty-second: three nineteen CIF East Coast. Indicative differential ninety-one twenty-three cents. That is not an automatic delivered saving. Product condition, origin, transaction basis, tariffs, inland freight, storage, specifications, and delivery timing still need to be considered. For buyers managing ground-beef formulations, that quoted-price difference is commercially significant. DTN reports U.S. distillate inventories at one hundred seven point four million barrels, down twelve point seven percent year over year. Freight assumptions matter when translating a quoted product price into an actual delivered cost. What is available? What does it cost delivered? When will it arrive? Does it meet the customer’s specification?

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-seven. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four ten. Eighty-fives three thirty-five. Fifties eighty-four cents. Pork cutout eighty-seven cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-two, up two fifteen. Feeders three thirty-three thirty-two, up five thirty. December corn five twenty-nine. November crude ninety-two sixteen. Wednesday slaughter: cattle ninety-four thousand, down seven point six year-to-date. Hogs four hundred eighty-six thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-four point nine six million, up one point one. Year-to-date production pounds have not been verified and are not being estimated from slaughter counts.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Southwest Kansas processing schedules remain an immediate consideration for cattle marketings and beef availability. The extent of production disruption attributable specifically to immigration enforcement is still unconfirmed. Feedlot losses continue to deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. The ninety-one-cent domestic-import ninety C L differential keeps imported lean firmly in the procurement discussion, with actual landed cost and delivery timing determining the opportunity. Today’s Hogs and Pigs report adds another supply benchmark. Brazil’s export access, global grain movement, and fuel costs remain important. For this business, the decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September twenty-third. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills. August placements fell nine point two percent to the lowest August on record — one point six one seven million head. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Year-to-date slaughter down seven point five percent, about one point six million fewer cattle. Heavier carcasses and higher Choice grading are offsetting some of the missing head, not all of it.

HOST: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen Thursday. Historically about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. That helps feeders. It does not immediately restore finished cattle.

SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one thirty-nine and feedlots at minus three twenty-four. Imported nineties three nineteen C I F Philadelphia versus domestic four twenty. That’s about a dollar of gross spread — not a dollar of delivered savings. New Zealand is heading into its seasonal low. China is taking October production. S and P has about twenty-two thousand tons cleared under the September tranche. The window closes the thirtieth.

HOST: Hogs and Pigs Thursday. Breeding herd expected down seven-tenths. Current packer margin is thirteen cents underwater. Turkey: more than six hundred thousand birds affected in five weeks. Crude down. Diesel up. Don’t assume cheaper freight.

SHAWN: The opportunity isn’t the lowest quote. It’s whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You know the protein business is getting interesting when a truckload of frozen chicken becomes currency. According to reports out of Memphis, a driver allegedly offered one hundred ten thousand dollars’ worth of Koch Foods chicken to settle a drug debt. Twelve arrests later, the load was recovered. Somewhere, a freight broker is having a very bad week. We’ve got diesel prices pushing toward record territory, August cattle placements at their lowest August level on record, and hog inventories potentially tightening into twenty twenty-seven. Apparently, we can add poultry to the list of accepted currencies. I’ve spent plenty of time negotiating pennies per pound, watching diesel prices, and trying to squeeze another nickel out of freight. Never occurred to me that someone might be negotiating a chicken-for-cocaine exchange rate. Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills.

HOST: August cattle placements fell nine point two percent to their lowest August level on record as Santa Teresa prepares to reopen Thursday. Sterling shows beef packers profitable while feedlots lose three hundred twenty-four a head. Pork producers remain profitable while packers operate near breakeven. Imported lean offers a substantial discount to domestic supply, although Asian demand raises questions about forward availability. Bird flu threatens turkey production. Thursday’s hog inventory report approaches. Elevated diesel complicates delivered protein economics.

SHAWN: USDA placements totaled one point six one seven million head, down nine point two percent from last year, versus a pre-report expectation of a two point seven percent decline. Lowest August placement total on record — not the lowest total for any month. September first inventories eleven point one six three million, just seven-tenths above twenty twenty-five. The year-over-year inventory surplus has narrowed from about two hundred thirty-nine thousand head on June first to eighty-three thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter nineteen point seven three two million through September twenty-second, down seven point five percent — about one point six million fewer cattle than the comparable twenty twenty-five period.

HOST: Fewer cattle do not translate into an equivalent reduction in beef pounds. Hales reports fed carcass weights nine hundred fifty-four pounds, up twenty-four from last year. Beef-type cattle grading Choice or higher reached eighty-eight percent, five points above twenty twenty-five. Heavier carcasses are partially offsetting reduced slaughter. Higher grading changes the composition of available beef. Cattle numbers, total beef pounds, and the availability of specific grades and manufacturing inputs are three different considerations.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen September twenty-fourth. Historically that crossing handled about forty-three percent of the one point two five million cattle imported annually from Mexico — roughly five hundred thirty-seven thousand five hundred head on an annualized basis. The reopening remains scheduled despite confirmation of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. Actual crossing volumes, inspection requirements, Mexican feeder availability, and finish time will determine the commercial impact. Reopening the crossing could improve feeder availability. It will not immediately restore finished-cattle supplies.

HOST: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot losses deepened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head in the week ending September nineteenth, versus three oh seven nineteen the prior week. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cow-calf twenty twenty-six annual projection plus one thousand four a cow. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated breakeven of two forty-five, versus two thirty-five oh nine for new placements. Sterling still projects an annual beef packing loss of one fifty-three seventy-five a head for twenty twenty-six.

SHAWN: Imported lean remains a meaningful alternative. Platts tradable C I F Philadelphia indications for October–November Australian and New Zealand shipments: ninety-five C L three forty-nine. Nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives three oh four. Against the last established domestic fresh nineties of four nineteen eighty-three, imported nineties at three nineteen C I F is a gross differential of about a dollar one. That is not a directly executable dollar-one saving. Product condition, shipment timing, duties, inland freight, handling, and financing have to go into delivered blend economics.

HOST: Forward availability deserves attention. Platts reports New Zealand is approaching its seasonal production low, with Chinese buyers absorbing available October production. Cattlenomics reported Australian beef imports into the United States declined forty-five point seven percent week over week to six thousand four hundred thirty-one metric tons in the week ending September eleventh. Brazilian imports increased eight percent to seven thousand seven hundred sixty-one. One week’s arrivals do not establish a lasting shift. Platts assessed imported nineties at three oh eight F C A East Coast. Those F C A and C I F assessments carry different terms and should not be compared without adjustment. The question is whether today’s discount is an opportunity to establish forward imported lean coverage before Asian demand changes available supplies and pricing.

SHAWN: HPAI is returning as the U.S. turkey industry tries to recover. Len Steiner’s Daily Livestock Report: more than six hundred thousand turkeys in commercial farms and breeder operations affected over the past five weeks, versus about fifty-five thousand in the corresponding period last year. Turkey breast reached about seven twenty a pound in December twenty twenty-five before retreating toward three ten as production recovered. USDA expects turkey production of about five point one billion pounds in twenty twenty-six, versus four point eight last year. That recovery remains vulnerable. Hormel’s Foodservice business is about one-third of company sales and roughly half its profits. Third-quarter Foodservice sales about one billion, up two percent. Segment profit one hundred forty-four point five million, up three. The Flash one eighty chicken platform is further processing — package to plate in about three minutes. The opportunity isn’t simply selling a pound of chicken. It’s helping customers reduce labor, simplify preparation, and improve kitchen throughput.

HOST: USDA September twenty-second broiler glance: whole birds steady, firm pricing tendencies, light availability. Bone-in breasts, front halves, tenders, and wings about steady. Dark meat activity slow. Legs and thighs well cleared. Year-to-date chicken slaughter six point nine nine nine billion birds, up one point two percent.

SHAWN: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is Thursday. Reuters survey: September breeding herd down about seven-tenths to five point eight nine four million, potentially the lowest September inventory since twenty fifteen. June–August pig crop expected down one percent. Farrowings down one point seven. Pigs per litter up nine-tenths. Those expectations concern future hog availability. Current pork pricing and margins are telling a different story. Sterling farrow-to-finish fell nearly ten dollars to twenty-eight forty-seven. Packers slipped slightly below breakeven at a loss of thirteen cents a head. Western Corn Belt lean carcass eighty-three twenty-two. Pork cutout eighty-seven sixty-three in that weekly tracker. Daily cutout eighty-seven ninety-nine, down ninety-two hundredths. Bellies down five forty-seven cents. Loins down four forty-nine. Hams up three sixty-four. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-one. Seventy-twos ninety-eight twenty-eight. Circana: August processed meat pounds down five point six percent. Frankfurters down ten point five. Thursday’s report will clarify inventory and pig-crop expectations heading into twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Crude declined Tuesday. Diesel moved the other way. October W T I ninety-four fifty-nine, down a dollar nineteen. November Brent ninety-nine twenty-five. October U L S D four ninety-four twenty-one a gallon, up three eighty-eight cents. Declining crude futures will not produce immediate reductions in freight rates or fuel surcharges. U L S D is a wholesale futures benchmark, not the pump price. December corn five thirty-six and three-quarters, down six and a quarter cents, despite harvest disruptions. Farm Journal reported more than seven inches in some areas and record September-to-date totals in several districts. Wet conditions can delay deliveries, increase drying costs, and affect local cash basis even as futures decline. Q T Information Systems reported regional cash soybean bids exceeding fourteen dollars as buyers sought remaining old-crop supplies. Sterling’s Pork Profit Tracker estimated feed costs of ninety twenty-six a head for new finishing placements, versus eighty-one seventy-seven for hogs marketed during the reporting week.

SHAWN: The first lean-beef tranche opened September first and closes September thirtieth. Subsequent tranches October first and October thirty-first. S and P Global Energy CERA reported about twenty-two thousand metric...]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: You know the protein business is getting interesting when a truckload of frozen chicken becomes currency. According to reports out of Memphis, a driver allegedly offered one hundred ten thousand dollars’ worth of Koch Foods chicken to settle a drug debt. Twelve arrests later, the load was recovered. Somewhere, a freight broker is having a very bad week. We’ve got diesel prices pushing toward record territory, August cattle placements at their lowest August level on record, and hog inventories potentially tightening into twenty twenty-seven. Apparently, we can add poultry to the list of accepted currencies. I’ve spent plenty of time negotiating pennies per pound, watching diesel prices, and trying to squeeze another nickel out of freight. Never occurred to me that someone might be negotiating a chicken-for-cocaine exchange rate. Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills.

HOST: August cattle placements fell nine point two percent to their lowest August level on record as Santa Teresa prepares to reopen Thursday. Sterling shows beef packers profitable while feedlots lose three hundred twenty-four a head. Pork producers remain profitable while packers operate near breakeven. Imported lean offers a substantial discount to domestic supply, although Asian demand raises questions about forward availability. Bird flu threatens turkey production. Thursday’s hog inventory report approaches. Elevated diesel complicates delivered protein economics.

SHAWN: USDA placements totaled one point six one seven million head, down nine point two percent from last year, versus a pre-report expectation of a two point seven percent decline. Lowest August placement total on record — not the lowest total for any month. September first inventories eleven point one six three million, just seven-tenths above twenty twenty-five. The year-over-year inventory surplus has narrowed from about two hundred thirty-nine thousand head on June first to eighty-three thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter nineteen point seven three two million through September twenty-second, down seven point five percent — about one point six million fewer cattle than the comparable twenty twenty-five period.

HOST: Fewer cattle do not translate into an equivalent reduction in beef pounds. Hales reports fed carcass weights nine hundred fifty-four pounds, up twenty-four from last year. Beef-type cattle grading Choice or higher reached eighty-eight percent, five points above twenty twenty-five. Heavier carcasses are partially offsetting reduced slaughter. Higher grading changes the composition of available beef. Cattle numbers, total beef pounds, and the availability of specific grades and manufacturing inputs are three different considerations.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen September twenty-fourth. Historically that crossing handled about forty-three percent of the one point two five million cattle imported annually from Mexico — roughly five hundred thirty-seven thousand five hundred head on an annualized basis. The reopening remains scheduled despite confirmation of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. Actual crossing volumes, inspection requirements, Mexican feeder availability, and finish time will determine the commercial impact. Reopening the crossing could improve feeder availability. It will not immediately restore finished-cattle supplies.

HOST: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot losses deepened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head in the week ending September nineteenth, versus three oh seven nineteen the prior week. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cow-calf twenty twenty-six annual projection plus one thousand four a cow. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated breakeven of two forty-five, versus two thirty-five oh nine for new placements. Sterling still projects an annual beef packing loss of one fifty-three seventy-five a head for twenty twenty-six.

SHAWN: Imported lean remains a meaningful alternative. Platts tradable C I F Philadelphia indications for October–November Australian and New Zealand shipments: ninety-five C L three forty-nine. Nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives three oh four. Against the last established domestic fresh nineties of four nineteen eighty-three, imported nineties at three nineteen C I F is a gross differential of about a dollar one. That is not a directly executable dollar-one saving. Product condition, shipment timing, duties, inland freight, handling, and financing have to go into delivered blend economics.

HOST: Forward availability deserves attention. Platts reports New Zealand is approaching its seasonal production low, with Chinese buyers absorbing available October production. Cattlenomics reported Australian beef imports into the United States declined forty-five point seven percent week over week to six thousand four hundred thirty-one metric tons in the week ending September eleventh. Brazilian imports increased eight percent to seven thousand seven hundred sixty-one. One week’s arrivals do not establish a lasting shift. Platts assessed imported nineties at three oh eight F C A East Coast. Those F C A and C I F assessments carry different terms and should not be compared without adjustment. The question is whether today’s discount is an opportunity to establish forward imported lean coverage before Asian demand changes available supplies and pricing.

SHAWN: HPAI is returning as the U.S. turkey industry tries to recover. Len Steiner’s Daily Livestock Report: more than six hundred thousand turkeys in commercial farms and breeder operations affected over the past five weeks, versus about fifty-five thousand in the corresponding period last year. Turkey breast reached about seven twenty a pound in December twenty twenty-five before retreating toward three ten as production recovered. USDA expects turkey production of about five point one billion pounds in twenty twenty-six, versus four point eight last year. That recovery remains vulnerable. Hormel’s Foodservice business is about one-third of company sales and roughly half its profits. Third-quarter Foodservice sales about one billion, up two percent. Segment profit one hundred forty-four point five million, up three. The Flash one eighty chicken platform is further processing — package to plate in about three minutes. The opportunity isn’t simply selling a pound of chicken. It’s helping customers reduce labor, simplify preparation, and improve kitchen throughput.

HOST: USDA September twenty-second broiler glance: whole birds steady, firm pricing tendencies, light availability. Bone-in breasts, front halves, tenders, and wings about steady. Dark meat activity slow. Legs and thighs well cleared. Year-to-date chicken slaughter six point nine nine nine billion birds, up one point two percent.

SHAWN: Quarterly Hogs and Pigs is Thursday. Reuters survey: September breeding herd down about seven-tenths to five point eight nine four million, potentially the lowest September inventory since twenty fifteen. June–August pig crop expected down one percent. Farrowings down one point seven. Pigs per litter up nine-tenths. Those expectations concern future hog availability. Current pork pricing and margins are telling a different story. Sterling farrow-to-finish fell nearly ten dollars to twenty-eight forty-seven. Packers slipped slightly below breakeven at a loss of thirteen cents a head. Western Corn Belt lean carcass eighty-three twenty-two. Pork cutout eighty-seven sixty-three in that weekly tracker. Daily cutout eighty-seven ninety-nine, down ninety-two hundredths. Bellies down five forty-seven cents. Loins down four forty-nine. Hams up three sixty-four. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-one. Seventy-twos ninety-eight twenty-eight. Circana: August processed meat pounds down five point six percent. Frankfurters down ten point five. Thursday’s report will clarify inventory and pig-crop expectations heading into twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Crude declined Tuesday. Diesel moved the other way. October W T I ninety-four fifty-nine, down a dollar nineteen. November Brent ninety-nine twenty-five. October U L S D four ninety-four twenty-one a gallon, up three eighty-eight cents. Declining crude futures will not produce immediate reductions in freight rates or fuel surcharges. U L S D is a wholesale futures benchmark, not the pump price. December corn five thirty-six and three-quarters, down six and a quarter cents, despite harvest disruptions. Farm Journal reported more than seven inches in some areas and record September-to-date totals in several districts. Wet conditions can delay deliveries, increase drying costs, and affect local cash basis even as futures decline. Q T Information Systems reported regional cash soybean bids exceeding fourteen dollars as buyers sought remaining old-crop supplies. Sterling’s Pork Profit Tracker estimated feed costs of ninety twenty-six a head for new finishing placements, versus eighty-one seventy-seven for hogs marketed during the reporting week.

SHAWN: The first lean-beef tranche opened September first and closes September thirtieth. Subsequent tranches October first and October thirty-first. S and P Global Energy CERA reported about twenty-two thousand metric tons had cleared under the September tranche as of September twenty-first. Quota clearances, contracted shipments, and physical arrivals are different measures. The September thirtieth deadline makes customs-entry timing commercially relevant.

HOST: Radar. Confirmed Australia-New Zealand trades, forward availability, and delivered blend economics. Actual Santa Teresa crossing volumes after Thursday’s scheduled reopening. Thursday’s breeding herd, pig crop, and farrowing intentions. Additional HPAI cases and wholesale turkey breast. Harvest progress, regional cash basis, and meal. Diesel and carrier fuel-surcharge exposure.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-nine. Select three fifty-eight. Fresh nineties four twenty, last established September twenty-first. Fifties eighty-six cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. October live cattle two eighteen seventy-eight, down two eighteen. October crude ninety-four fifty-nine. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-one thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-five point seven million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: A lower cattle placement number doesn’t necessarily mean fewer beef pounds today. A lower crude price doesn’t guarantee cheaper freight tomorrow. And a dollar-per-pound discount on imported lean doesn’t automatically translate into a dollar of procurement savings. Different markets operate on different timelines, and the difference between a quoted price and an executable delivered cost matters. The opportunity isn’t simply finding the lowest price. It’s understanding when the market is offering value — and whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September twenty-second. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. The question is whether we’ve gotten as good at giving consumers what they actually want. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion. They’re buying dinner. The next opportunity isn’t necessarily more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more.

HOST: August placements down nine point two percent. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Cattle on feed one hundred fifty days or longer up eighteen point three percent.

SHAWN: More pounds from cattle already in the system. Fewer replacements entering it. Packer margins seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head. Last week’s slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand. Southern cash two twenty-six to two twenty-seven. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. South American nineties shown three oh eight F O B Philadelphia. Today’s inventory price may not be the next shipment.

HOST: Pork cutout up. Bellies and loins did the work. Seaboard’s point: consumption still near fifty pounds a person. Beef built eating quality. Chicken built convenience. HPAI hit commercial turkeys — not reported broiler losses. Corn thirteen percent harvested. Ratings worse than last year. Crude ninety-five seventy-eight.

SHAWN: The important number isn’t always today’s price. Sometimes it’s the cost of being covered tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. But have we gotten just as good at giving consumers what they actually want? Chad Groves at Seaboard made an interesting point this week. Pork has spent decades improving efficiency and producing more pounds, yet domestic consumption hasn’t moved much. Beef invested in eating quality and gave consumers a reason to pay more. Chicken made itself convenient, versatile, and affordable. Here’s where I think we need to pay attention. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion, carcass yields, or plant efficiencies. They’re buying dinner. And they’re deciding whether that dinner was worth what they paid for it. We can keep chasing lower costs and more volume, but if we don’t give consumers a reason to choose our product, we’re eventually left competing on price. The next opportunity in protein isn’t necessarily producing more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more to the consumer.

HOST: August placements fell nine point two percent, while positive packer margins supported additional slaughter. Export sales strengthened. Chicken wholesale remains mostly steady. New HPAI detections are affecting commercial turkey production. The pork cutout improved as Seaboard raised a broader question about demand and pork’s value proposition. Rising Brazilian cattle costs and competing Chinese demand are changing imported beef replacement economics. A potential Brazil–Uruguay quota arrangement adds another consideration. Corn harvest is advancing, but crop conditions remain below last year.

SHAWN: The cattle pipeline is tightening even though feedlot inventories remain above last year. September first cattle-on-feed inventories increased seven-tenths of a percent. August placements declined nine point two percent. Cattle are staying on feed longer and producing heavier carcasses. The number on feed one hundred fifty days or longer increased five hundred fifty-four thousand head, or eighteen point three percent from last year. We’re getting more pounds from the cattle already in the system while fewer replacements enter it.

HOST: Hales estimates positive packer margins of seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head, depending on region. USDA finalized last week’s cattle slaughter at five hundred twenty-nine thousand, up twenty-four thousand from the previous week. Doug Wright reports southern cash around two twenty-six to two twenty-seven, with packers managing slaughter volumes to protect recently improved margins. Hales reported one thousand twenty-eight loads of boxed beef export sales last week, up thirty-six percent from the previous week and fifty-one percent year over year. That improvement is worth distinguishing from China’s reduced purchases of U.S. beef. One destination doesn’t tell the entire export-demand story.

SHAWN: Monday’s Choice cutout advanced to three seventy-six thirty-five. Select three fifty-five seventy-seven. Fresh nineties four nineteen eighty-three. Eighty-fives three forty-five oh four. Fifties eighty-three forty-one cents. Imported lean remains an important alternative for manufacturers, although forward replacement economics are changing.

HOST: Chicken remains mostly steady. USDA reports adequate whole-bird supplies and moderate trading. Breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat generally held. Bone-in breasts and front halves continued trading at discounted prices. Chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. New HPAI detections affected about one hundred forty thousand two hundred commercial turkeys across Minnesota and Wisconsin, with another commercial turkey outbreak in Manitoba. These are turkey-production losses, not reported commercial broiler losses. They are nevertheless relevant as the industry approaches holiday procurement.

SHAWN: Bellies and loins helped lift Monday’s pork cutout to eighty-eight ninety-one, up a dollar ninety-three. Bellies gained five thirty-five. Loins three sixty-four. Picnics declined two thirty-seven. Chad Groves, president and C E O of Seaboard Foods, speaking at the Leman Swine Conference, noted that domestic pork consumption remains near fifty pounds per person despite decades of efficiency and yield gains. He contrasted that with beef’s investment in eating quality and consumer-recognized grading. Beef cutout values increased about three point three times over the period he discussed, versus one point nine times for pork. Producing pork more efficiently helps manage costs. It doesn’t automatically increase what consumers are willing to pay. Kansas State’s Meat Demand Monitor reinforces taste and price, alongside growing attention to nutrition and health.

HOST: Latest October–November South American offerings shown F O B Philadelphia: ninety-five C L three twenty-five. Nineties three oh eight. Eighty-fives two ninety-eight. Imported beef trimming arrivals declined sixteen point five percent to fourteen thousand seven hundred sixty-two metric tons in the week ending September twelfth. Brazilian packers are facing higher cattle acquisition costs while competing for China and the United States.

SHAWN: Brazil may also gain access to unused Uruguayan beef quota for China. After a meeting with Uruguay’s president Monday, President Lula said Uruguay had authorized Brazil to use surplus quota for beef exports to China. Uruguay’s twenty twenty-six China allocation is three hundred twenty-four thousand metric tons. Shipped through September twelfth: one hundred eighteen thousand six hundred thirty-seven. Unused: two hundred five thousand three hundred sixty-three — about sixty-three percent of the annual allocation. That unused balance is not the quantity Brazil would receive. Australia has also expressed interest. Any reallocation requires Chinese approval. No final transferable volume or schedule has been established. Additional access to China could create another outlet for Brazilian export production as cattle costs rise. Latest Brazilian F F Q eight-cut offerings for January arrival around seven thousand two hundred dollars a metric ton C F R China. That isn’t manufacturing trim, but it illustrates competing markets for Brazilian cattle.

HOST: The additional three-hundred-thousand-ton lower-tariff quota has suppliers evaluating how much eligible product can be shipped and entered within the window. There is a meaningful difference between inventory already positioned in the United States and new production that must be purchased, processed, shipped, and cleared. Today’s available inventory price may not be the price of the next shipment. Saudi Arabia remains a developing U.S. beef export market. U S M E F reported April–July shipments of five hundred seventy-five metric tons valued at six point two million, and estimates a potential annual opportunity of one hundred fifty million.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is expected to reopen to Mexican cattle September twenty-fourth, subject to animal-health safeguards. That crossing historically handled about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. Actual shipment volumes will determine the near-term contribution. Mandatory beef labeling is in the Senate Agriculture Committee Farm Bill package. It has not become law. USDA directed the Dairy Checkoff to stop funding specified E S G-related initiatives and instructed A M S to examine other commodity checkoffs. A September fourth executive order directs USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations. Illinois continues exploring interest in Tyson’s former Joslin beef facility. USDA is supporting expanded state meat inspection and eligible interstate shipment for smaller processors.

HOST: USDA reports thirteen percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested, ahead of the eleven percent five-year average. Only fifty-seven percent rated good to excellent versus sixty-six a year ago. Seventeen percent poor to very poor. Monday’s grain rally: December corn fifteen and a half cents to five forty-three. November soybeans twenty-four and a half to thirteen twenty-eight. October meal up twelve dollars to three sixty-six sixty. Tuesday morning brought selling pressure. World Weather Inc. forecasts one to three inches across portions of the western Corn Belt — Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin. Rain could delay fieldwork even as the national harvest advances. National production is only part of the feed-cost equation. Local yields, crop quality, basis, and transportation determine what feed costs at the point of use. October crude declined four fifty-two to ninety-five seventy-eight. Elevated fuel costs still affect grain movement, livestock transportation, and refrigerated freight.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-six. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. Pork cutout eighty-nine cents. Bellies ninety-six cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-five, up five oh two. Feeders three thirty twenty-five, up six seventy-five. December corn five forty-three. October crude ninety-five seventy-eight. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-six point one million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Markets are rewarding different things at different points in the supply chain....]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. But have we gotten just as good at giving consumers what they actually want? Chad Groves at Seaboard made an interesting point this week. Pork has spent decades improving efficiency and producing more pounds, yet domestic consumption hasn’t moved much. Beef invested in eating quality and gave consumers a reason to pay more. Chicken made itself convenient, versatile, and affordable. Here’s where I think we need to pay attention. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion, carcass yields, or plant efficiencies. They’re buying dinner. And they’re deciding whether that dinner was worth what they paid for it. We can keep chasing lower costs and more volume, but if we don’t give consumers a reason to choose our product, we’re eventually left competing on price. The next opportunity in protein isn’t necessarily producing more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more to the consumer.

HOST: August placements fell nine point two percent, while positive packer margins supported additional slaughter. Export sales strengthened. Chicken wholesale remains mostly steady. New HPAI detections are affecting commercial turkey production. The pork cutout improved as Seaboard raised a broader question about demand and pork’s value proposition. Rising Brazilian cattle costs and competing Chinese demand are changing imported beef replacement economics. A potential Brazil–Uruguay quota arrangement adds another consideration. Corn harvest is advancing, but crop conditions remain below last year.

SHAWN: The cattle pipeline is tightening even though feedlot inventories remain above last year. September first cattle-on-feed inventories increased seven-tenths of a percent. August placements declined nine point two percent. Cattle are staying on feed longer and producing heavier carcasses. The number on feed one hundred fifty days or longer increased five hundred fifty-four thousand head, or eighteen point three percent from last year. We’re getting more pounds from the cattle already in the system while fewer replacements enter it.

HOST: Hales estimates positive packer margins of seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head, depending on region. USDA finalized last week’s cattle slaughter at five hundred twenty-nine thousand, up twenty-four thousand from the previous week. Doug Wright reports southern cash around two twenty-six to two twenty-seven, with packers managing slaughter volumes to protect recently improved margins. Hales reported one thousand twenty-eight loads of boxed beef export sales last week, up thirty-six percent from the previous week and fifty-one percent year over year. That improvement is worth distinguishing from China’s reduced purchases of U.S. beef. One destination doesn’t tell the entire export-demand story.

SHAWN: Monday’s Choice cutout advanced to three seventy-six thirty-five. Select three fifty-five seventy-seven. Fresh nineties four nineteen eighty-three. Eighty-fives three forty-five oh four. Fifties eighty-three forty-one cents. Imported lean remains an important alternative for manufacturers, although forward replacement economics are changing.

HOST: Chicken remains mostly steady. USDA reports adequate whole-bird supplies and moderate trading. Breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat generally held. Bone-in breasts and front halves continued trading at discounted prices. Chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. New HPAI detections affected about one hundred forty thousand two hundred commercial turkeys across Minnesota and Wisconsin, with another commercial turkey outbreak in Manitoba. These are turkey-production losses, not reported commercial broiler losses. They are nevertheless relevant as the industry approaches holiday procurement.

SHAWN: Bellies and loins helped lift Monday’s pork cutout to eighty-eight ninety-one, up a dollar ninety-three. Bellies gained five thirty-five. Loins three sixty-four. Picnics declined two thirty-seven. Chad Groves, president and C E O of Seaboard Foods, speaking at the Leman Swine Conference, noted that domestic pork consumption remains near fifty pounds per person despite decades of efficiency and yield gains. He contrasted that with beef’s investment in eating quality and consumer-recognized grading. Beef cutout values increased about three point three times over the period he discussed, versus one point nine times for pork. Producing pork more efficiently helps manage costs. It doesn’t automatically increase what consumers are willing to pay. Kansas State’s Meat Demand Monitor reinforces taste and price, alongside growing attention to nutrition and health.

HOST: Latest October–November South American offerings shown F O B Philadelphia: ninety-five C L three twenty-five. Nineties three oh eight. Eighty-fives two ninety-eight. Imported beef trimming arrivals declined sixteen point five percent to fourteen thousand seven hundred sixty-two metric tons in the week ending September twelfth. Brazilian packers are facing higher cattle acquisition costs while competing for China and the United States.

SHAWN: Brazil may also gain access to unused Uruguayan beef quota for China. After a meeting with Uruguay’s president Monday, President Lula said Uruguay had authorized Brazil to use surplus quota for beef exports to China. Uruguay’s twenty twenty-six China allocation is three hundred twenty-four thousand metric tons. Shipped through September twelfth: one hundred eighteen thousand six hundred thirty-seven. Unused: two hundred five thousand three hundred sixty-three — about sixty-three percent of the annual allocation. That unused balance is not the quantity Brazil would receive. Australia has also expressed interest. Any reallocation requires Chinese approval. No final transferable volume or schedule has been established. Additional access to China could create another outlet for Brazilian export production as cattle costs rise. Latest Brazilian F F Q eight-cut offerings for January arrival around seven thousand two hundred dollars a metric ton C F R China. That isn’t manufacturing trim, but it illustrates competing markets for Brazilian cattle.

HOST: The additional three-hundred-thousand-ton lower-tariff quota has suppliers evaluating how much eligible product can be shipped and entered within the window. There is a meaningful difference between inventory already positioned in the United States and new production that must be purchased, processed, shipped, and cleared. Today’s available inventory price may not be the price of the next shipment. Saudi Arabia remains a developing U.S. beef export market. U S M E F reported April–July shipments of five hundred seventy-five metric tons valued at six point two million, and estimates a potential annual opportunity of one hundred fifty million.

SHAWN: Santa Teresa is expected to reopen to Mexican cattle September twenty-fourth, subject to animal-health safeguards. That crossing historically handled about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. Actual shipment volumes will determine the near-term contribution. Mandatory beef labeling is in the Senate Agriculture Committee Farm Bill package. It has not become law. USDA directed the Dairy Checkoff to stop funding specified E S G-related initiatives and instructed A M S to examine other commodity checkoffs. A September fourth executive order directs USDA to expand Packers and Stockyards investigations. Illinois continues exploring interest in Tyson’s former Joslin beef facility. USDA is supporting expanded state meat inspection and eligible interstate shipment for smaller processors.

HOST: USDA reports thirteen percent of the U.S. corn crop harvested, ahead of the eleven percent five-year average. Only fifty-seven percent rated good to excellent versus sixty-six a year ago. Seventeen percent poor to very poor. Monday’s grain rally: December corn fifteen and a half cents to five forty-three. November soybeans twenty-four and a half to thirteen twenty-eight. October meal up twelve dollars to three sixty-six sixty. Tuesday morning brought selling pressure. World Weather Inc. forecasts one to three inches across portions of the western Corn Belt — Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin. Rain could delay fieldwork even as the national harvest advances. National production is only part of the feed-cost equation. Local yields, crop quality, basis, and transportation determine what feed costs at the point of use. October crude declined four fifty-two to ninety-five seventy-eight. Elevated fuel costs still affect grain movement, livestock transportation, and refrigerated freight.

SHAWN: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-six. Select three fifty-six. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. Pork cutout eighty-nine cents. Bellies ninety-six cents. October live cattle two twenty ninety-five, up five oh two. Feeders three thirty twenty-five, up six seventy-five. December corn five forty-three. October crude ninety-five seventy-eight. Daily slaughter: cattle one hundred five thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, down one percent. Chicken thirty-six point one million, up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Markets are rewarding different things at different points in the supply chain. Cattle owners are benefiting from a tightening pipeline. Processors are responding to improved margins. Imported beef buyers are weighing available inventory against rising replacement costs. Livestock producers are watching harvest for delivered feed. The important number isn’t always today’s price. Sometimes it’s the cost of being covered tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined

Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September twenty-first. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? August placements down nine percent — about one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. Lowest August since nineteen ninety-six. Fresh nineties at four oh eight. Fifties under ninety cents. Another one hundred thousand tons of quota opens October first. There may be buying to do before the supply picture catches up. Six forty-four diesel can eat a good purchase quickly. An import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat.

HOST: Theoretical seventy C L from equal nineties and fifties is about two forty-nine before freight and shrink. Not the same as a delivered plant cost. Still worth looking at.

SHAWN: Year-to-date cattle slaughter down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Heavier carcasses help. They don’t replace every missing animal. Platts imported nineties about three nineteen C I F East Coast. Brazil still has China. Quota access is not a redirected load. Santa Teresa is slated September twenty-fourth. Those cattle still have to be fed.

HOST: Bellies dropped thirty cents. Hams and picnics went the other way. Chicken frames cheaper. Wings a dollar eleven. Don’t apply the cutout to every primal.

SHAWN: I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? That’s the question Friday’s Cattle on Feed report left me asking. August placements were down nine percent, roughly one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. We covered the numbers in our special report, but I keep coming back to what happens when those missing cattle would normally be ready for slaughter. And here’s what makes this market interesting. USDA fresh nineties are at four oh eight. Fifties are under ninety cents. And we have another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opening October first. There may be opportunities to get some buying done before the supply picture catches up with us. But six forty-four diesel can eat into a good purchase pretty quickly, and an import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat. I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now.

HOST: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report raised new questions about fed-cattle availability heading into twenty twenty-seven. Domestic fat trim remains inexpensive relative to lean. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opens October first. Elevated diesel costs are changing delivered protein economics. Pork bellies declined sharply. Chicken frames softened. Whole wings moved slightly higher.

SHAWN: USDA reported August placements of one point six one seven million head, down nine percent year over year and about one hundred fifteen thousand head below pre-report expectations. Lowest August placement total since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. September first feedlot inventory eleven point one six three million, about one percent above last year. August marketings declined three percent to one point five one nine million. With about forty-three percent of August placements weighing eight hundred pounds or more, the timing of those cattle reaching slaughter will matter just as much as the headline placement number.

HOST: What concerns Shawn is the combination of fewer cattle entering feedlots and an industry already processing substantially fewer head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent. Beef production is down five point one. Heavier carcasses offset part of the slaughter reduction. They cannot replace every missing animal.

SHAWN: The domestic processing-beef market presents an interesting contrast. Latest national weekly fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties under ninety cents. For a manufacturer producing seventy percent lean ground beef, equal pounds of nineties and fifties generate a theoretical raw-material cost of about two forty-nine a pound before freight, processing, shrink, and margin. We can have a legitimate longer-term cattle supply problem and still find interesting purchasing economics in the current ingredient market. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor points to continued consumer interest in beef taste and quality, while higher prices put more pressure on lower-income households. I would not assume premium steaks and value-oriented ground beef will respond identically.

HOST: Chicken. Modest increase in the national whole-bird average. Parts moved in different directions. Frames declined two oh seven cents to seven fifty-nine cents. For processors using frames in mechanically separated chicken and other recovery applications, that could improve raw-material economics. Recovery yield, processing expense, and finished-product value determine how much of the lower purchase price reaches the bottom line. Whole wings averaged a dollar eleven, up slightly. Wing prices remain a separate consideration for foodservice as fall sports demand develops. Boneless skinless breast and bulk leg quarters also moved higher. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. A small reduction in feed cost can be erased by deterioration in bird performance. The relevant measure is cost per pound of saleable chicken, not simply the lowest-priced ration.

SHAWN: Pork. Bellies declined thirty thirty-one cents. Hams increased five twenty-one cents. Picnics gained two forty. A buyer purchasing bellies experienced a substantially different market from one buying ham or picnic. The overall cutout declined. That movement should not be applied indiscriminately across the carcass. Weekly hog slaughter two point four nine zero million. Year-to-date slaughter remains one percent below last year. Pork production nearly unchanged, down just one-tenth. Product mix and promotional timing may matter more than the overall cutout suggests.

HOST: Imported lean remains central heading into October. The additional tariff-rate quota is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches. The second opens October first. The third opens October thirty-first, following the October thirtieth close of the second tranche. First-come, first-served in the other-countries-or-areas category.

SHAWN: September seventeenth Platts assessments: imported nineties about three nineteen C I F U.S. East Coast and three oh eight F C A East Coast, versus USDA domestic fresh nineties weekly average of four oh eight. Those assessments are not interchangeable with domestic fresh prices or a delivered plant quote. The difference still warrants attention from manufacturers that can use frozen imported lean. Platts Brazil Beef Marker six thousand eight hundred fifty dollars a metric ton. China continues to provide an important outlet. Additional U.S. quota access does not guarantee packers will redirect every available load toward American buyers. Material entering under the October quota still has to move through the supply chain before it hits a production schedule.

HOST: Santa Teresa was scheduled for a September twenty-fourth reopening, with New World screwworm surveillance remaining central. Any additional Mexican feeder cattle would still require feeding before contributing to finished-cattle availability. In pork, N P P C continues to seek federal action on California Proposition Twelve. Packers and Stockyards investigations and proposed poultry grower-rule changes remain on the calendar. Announced enforcement and proposed rules should not be confused with actual changes in processing capacity.

SHAWN: The purchasing question is how much of a manufacturer’s forward beef requirement can be covered at today’s ingredient economics without taking on unnecessary inventory, freight, or delivery risk. For plants that can use both domestic fresh and imported frozen lean, examine forward requirements rather than evaluating every load independently. Brownfield reported national diesel at six forty-four a gallon, versus three seventy a year earlier. An Indiana farmer described using five hundred to one thousand gallons daily during harvest. At that consumption, the year-over-year difference is an illustrative additional one thousand three hundred seventy to two thousand seven hundred forty dollars a day. Those expenses extend through grain hauling, feed delivery, livestock transportation, and refrigerated protein distribution. A favorable raw-material quote can look considerably different when the delivered economics are calculated.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-two. Select three fifty-three. Fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties eighty-nine cents. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. Bellies ninety cents, down thirty cents. Whole bird one seventeen. Frames seven fifty-nine cents. October live cattle two fifteen ninety-two. October crude one hundred thirty. Latest week: cattle slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand, down seven point five year-to-date. Hogs two point four nine million, down one percent. Chicken slaughter up one point two. Beef production down five point one. Pork production down one-tenth.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report gave us a better look at what may be coming down the road, but the next several weeks could be just as interesting for buyers. Domestic fifties are under ninety cents. Imported lean remains worth examining. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of quota opens October first. Those are real considerations for anyone buying beef to grind. I wouldn’t assume today’s ingredient market will look the same when the cattle placed — or not placed — in August would normally be reaching slaughter. There may be some buying decisions made this fall that look pretty smart six months from now. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Special Report | September 18, 2026

Cattle on Feed: lowest August placements on record

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September eighteenth. From The Sparks Group. Cattle on Feed.

SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are up one percent. I would not get comfortable with that number. August placements fell nine percent to one point six one seven million — the lowest August since the series began in nineteen ninety-six. Marketings were also a record-low August. The cattle are there today. The replacements are not coming fast enough.

HOST: On feed eleven point one six three million. Placements down one hundred sixty-three thousand head. Trade wanted placements at ninety-six point seven percent of last year. USDA printed ninety-one. That’s a five point seven point bullish surprise.

SHAWN: Declines across every major weight class — not just light calves. Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas were about seventy-two percent of placements, and they were all down. Near term this is not an immediate fed-cattle shortage. Farther forward the pipeline tightened. The Protein Pulse A I model reads bullish to strongly bullish, with more sensitivity in February and April. This is not a ninety C L report. It still reinforces why imported lean matters to the grind. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Special Report | September 18, 2026

Cattle on Feed: Placements drop to lowest August on record

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 18, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA’s September Cattle on Feed report: placements dropped to the lowest August on record.

SHAWN: The headline says cattle on feed are up one percent. I would not get comfortable with that number. August placements fell nine percent year over year to one point six one seven million head — the lowest August placement total since USDA began the series in nineteen ninety-six. Marketings were also the lowest August on record. That matters because feedlots can carry inventory for a while when cattle are moving out more slowly. But eventually the math catches up. Fewer cattle placed today means fewer fed cattle available tomorrow. For beef buyers, this is not a relief report. It is another reminder that the U.S. cattle pipeline remains constrained, and there is still no meaningful supply rebuild showing up in the data. The cattle are there today. The replacements are not coming fast enough.

HOST: As of September first, cattle and calves on feed in lots of one thousand head or more totaled eleven point one six three million, up one percent from a year ago. August placements one point six one seven million, down nine percent. August marketings one point five one nine million, down three percent. Other disappearance fifty-two thousand, up two percent. Net placements one point five seven million.

SHAWN: The September report is more important as a forward-supply signal than as an inventory report. Inventories remain one percent above last year, but August placements were down one hundred sixty-three thousand head from twenty twenty-five and reached a record August low. Slower marketings helped keep current inventories elevated. Fewer cattle entered the system for future slaughter. The Protein Pulse A I Cattle on Feed Reaction Model also reads the report as a bullish futures signal, driven primarily by placements coming in materially below pre-report expectations.

HOST: Placements are the story. August placements declined from one point seven eight zero million in August twenty twenty-five to one point six one seven million this year. USDA identified that as the lowest August placement number since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. Nebraska four hundred ten thousand, down fourteen percent. Colorado one hundred fifteen thousand, down eighteen. Kansas four hundred forty thousand, down seven. Texas three hundred twenty thousand, down six. Oklahoma fifty-three thousand, up eight. Kansas, Nebraska, and Texas accounted for roughly seventy-two percent of August placements. Weakness there matters to the forward fed-cattle pipeline.

SHAWN: The decline was broad, not isolated to one weight class. Under six hundred pounds: three hundred twenty thousand, down nine point nine percent. Six to six ninety-nine: two hundred forty thousand, down nine point four. Seven to seven ninety-nine: three hundred fifty-five thousand, down nine. Eight to eight ninety-nine: three hundred eighty-seven thousand, down seven point nine. Nine to nine ninety-nine: two hundred thirty thousand, down eleven point five. One thousand and up: eighty-five thousand, down five point six. Year-over-year declines across every major placement weight category. This was not simply a lightweight-calf timing issue. Fewer cattle entered feedlots across the weight spectrum.

HOST: The Protein Pulse A I model measures surprise versus pre-report expectations rather than relying only on the year-over-year percentages. Pre-report trade estimates were about one oh one point seven percent on feed, ninety-six point seven placements, and ninety-six point oh marketings. USDA actual: on feed one oh one point oh versus one oh one point seven — minus point seven, bullish. Placements ninety-one versus ninety-six point seven — minus five point seven points, strongly bullish. Marketings ninety-seven versus ninety-six — plus one point, bullish. The dominant signal is placements. The trade was looking for about ninety-six point seven percent of last year. USDA reported ninety-one.

SHAWN: Indicative Cattle on Feed-only futures impact from the model. October plus one ninety-five, target two seventeen ninety-seven. December plus two thirty-eight, target two nineteen oh five. February plus two seventy-seven, target two twenty fourteen. April plus two seventy, target two twenty-one forty. Strongest indicative response in February and April, where August placements carry greater relevance to future fed-cattle availability. This is an indicative Cattle on Feed-only model, not a forecast that futures must trade to those exact levels. Cash cattle, boxed beef, macro markets, fund positioning, trade policy, and technical flows can all alter the actual market reaction.

HOST: Why the headline inventory can still be up. Feedlots began August with eleven point one one seven million on feed, two percent above last year, while August marketings were also lower. Slower movement out of feedlots helped keep September first inventory above twenty twenty-five even as placements fell sharply. Current inventory remains adequate. Forward inflows are weaker.

SHAWN: What it means for beef buyers. Near term: more than eleven point one six million cattle remain on feed, so this report does not indicate an immediate shortage of fed cattle. Farther forward: August put substantially fewer cattle into the feeding system. Cash cattle: the report should reinforce feeder leverage, although weekly cash direction will still depend on packer needs, slaughter schedules, and boxed beef. Live cattle futures: the placement surprise creates a bullish fundamental signal, with greater model sensitivity in deferred contracts. Boxed beef: Cattle on Feed does not determine cutout direction by itself. Demand, carcass weights, slaughter pace, and packer operating decisions remain critical. Lean beef and grinding: this is not a cow-slaughter or ninety C L report. Continued constraints across the domestic cattle complex reinforce the strategic importance of imported lean in U.S. grinding and blend economics.

HOST: Radar. Current inventory plus one percent. August placements minus nine — record August low. Placement surprise versus trade minus five point seven points. Forward fed cattle: tightening. Model: bullish to strongly bullish. Highest sensitivity February through April live cattle. Imported lean remains strategically important. The disconnect: current inventory remains elevated while forward inflows weaken.

SHAWN: Bottom line. USDA says there are eleven point one six three million cattle on feed today. But August placements fell to one point six one seven million, down nine percent from last year and materially below trade expectations. The current cattle supply is still there. The forward inflow is weaker. The Protein Pulse A I model reads the report as a bullish fundamental signal, with the strongest indicative impact in the deferred contracts. Eleven point one six million on feed tells us where we are. One point six two million placements tells us more about where we are going. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 18, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | September 18, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September eighteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Pick your screen and you can tell yourself a different beef story. Cash cattle holding two twenty-two to two twenty-three. October live cattle just lost two eighty. Packers making money. Feedlots still more than three hundred underwater. Fresh fifties jumped eighteen percent in a day. Cattle on Feed is later today. Everything around it is already under tension.

HOST: Pre-report: one oh one point eight on feed, ninety-seven point three placements, ninety-six point two marketings.

SHAWN: Choice slipped. Fifties printed a dollar oh two seventy-one on good demand and light offerings. South American nineties still around three oh eight to three twenty East Coast. Santa Teresa is expected to reopen September twenty-fourth. Peel puts one hundred fifty thousand Mexican head by year-end, maybe two fifty. Tyson is concentrating around Dakota City, Holcomb, and Amarillo. The herd is rebuilding slowly. The system is already adapting.

HOST: Pork still profitable. Iowa State August farrow-to-finish plus twenty sixty-three — down sixty-one percent from a year ago. Feed costs highest of twenty twenty-six. Chicken still adding birds. Crude still above one hundred.

SHAWN: The shortage is not new. What changed this week is how clearly the industry is adapting to it. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Closing Bell Friday | September 18, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 18, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Pick your screen and you can tell yourself a different beef story. Cash cattle are holding around two twenty-two to two twenty-three while October live cattle just lost two eighty. Choice is slipping. Packers are making money again. Feedlots are still more than three hundred a head underwater. Fresh fifties jumped eighteen percent in a day, while imported South American lean remains materially cheaper than domestic lean. Later today, USDA releases Cattle on Feed. Pre-report expectations are one oh one point eight percent on feed, ninety-seven point three placements, and ninety-six point two marketings. Mexican cattle are starting to return. Tyson is repositioning capacity around where cattle actually are. Imported lean is doing more work in the grind. Cattle on Feed is the next hinge. Everything around it is already under tension.

HOST: The week closes with beef pulling in several directions at once: firm cash cattle, lower futures, softer Choice, improving packer margins, and sharply higher fresh fifties. Domestic cattle supply remains tight, but the industry is adapting around it. Pork producers remain profitable, although rising feed costs are narrowing the cushion. Chicken production continues above year ago. The Senate Farm Bill has put beef labeling, pork production standards, and corn demand into the protein conversation.

SHAWN: Cash and futures are sending two different messages. Nebraska trade developed around two twenty-two to two twenty-three live and three fifty dressed. October live cattle closed two fifteen sixty-five, down two eighty. October feeders fell five twenty-seven to three twenty-four thirty-seven. Thursday afternoon Choice cutout three seventy-two fifteen, down three sixty-six. Select three fifty-one eighty-eight, down two sixty-nine. Spread twenty twenty-seven.

HOST: Packer economics moved the other direction. Sterling estimates beef packer margins at plus one seventy-seven sixteen a head. Feedlot margins remain around minus three oh seven nineteen. Hales expects weekly slaughter around five hundred twenty-five to five hundred thirty-five thousand as positive packer margins provide more incentive to run cattle. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is still seven point six percent below twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: The grind supplied one of the week’s biggest moves. USDA reported fresh fifty percent lean at a dollar oh two seventy-one, describing trimmings as mostly sharply higher on good demand and light offerings. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three sixty-one ninety-three. Against that, South American nineties have recently been indicated around three oh eight to three twenty F O B U.S. East Coast. That spread keeps imported lean firmly inside the U.S. blend equation.

HOST: Another supply valve is beginning to reopen. Santa Teresa, New Mexico, is expected to reopen September twenty-fourth — a port that historically handled roughly forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. Derrell Peel estimates around one hundred fifty thousand head could enter by year-end, with an outside possibility of two hundred fifty thousand. Tyson says its beef network is increasingly centered around Dakota City, Holcomb, and Amarillo, matching slaughter capacity more closely with where cattle are. The cattle herd is rebuilding slowly. The beef system is already adapting around it.

SHAWN: Chicken remains the clearest production-growth protein. For the week ending September twelfth, federally inspected slaughter totaled one hundred fifty-eight point nine oh six million head. Weekly USDA data showed slaughter and ready-to-cook production both about two percent above year ago year-to-date. The daily series through September seventeenth showed head count running one point two percent above year ago. HPAI remains the principal operational wildcard. New U S Poultry-funded work has produced a depopulation-planning calculator for emergency response. For now, chicken continues adding production while beef continues managing scarcity.

HOST: August pork producer economics remained positive, but the cushion is narrowing. Thursday cutout eighty-seven fifty-four, up a dollar nineteen. Loins eighty-six sixty-three. Bellies eighty-five forty-eight. Picnics seventy-one thirty-two. Forty-twos seventy-three ninety-one. Seventy-twos ninety-five ninety-eight. Iowa State estimates August farrow-to-finish returns at plus twenty sixty-three a head — twenty-nine consecutive months of profitability. That was down twenty-four percent from July and sixty-one percent from a year ago.

SHAWN: Feed is doing more of the squeezing. August feed costs reached eighty-eight ninety a head, the highest of twenty twenty-six. Corn thirty-nine fifty-two. Meal fifteen forty-five, up nineteen percent from last August. Pork remains profitable. The forward margin picture is becoming less comfortable.

HOST: China is sending two very different signals. August imports of corn, sorghum, and barley increased sharply year over year. Pork imports fell nearly twenty-nine percent. Feed-grain demand strengthened while imported pork demand weakened. July U.S. beef exports held up despite high domestic prices — roughly eighty-nine thousand metric tons, essentially steady with year ago, while value increased about six percent to nearly seven hundred ninety-seven million. Pork exports declined roughly six percent in both volume and value. South America remains especially important to the U.S. lean-beef equation. Competitively priced South American product continues to influence blend economics well beyond the import market itself.

SHAWN: The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the Agriculture Act of twenty twenty-six on a twelve-to-eleven vote. The package includes year-round E fifteen and mandatory country-of-origin labeling provisions. It still has to move through the broader process. For beef, the labeling language directs USDA and U S T R toward a W T O-compliant path for reinstating M COOL. Additional origin segregation and recordkeeping could affect processing economics in a market currently reliant on imported lean. For pork, an effort to insert the Save Our Bacon Act aimed at state livestock-production mandates such as California Proposition Twelve did not make the committee package. For feed, year-round E fifteen adds another structural demand consideration for corn.

HOST: Radar. South American nineties remain materially below domestic fresh lean. Fresh fifties moved to a dollar oh two seventy-one on good demand and light offerings. Cash cattle have not followed futures lower. Improved packer economics are supporting slaughter rates. Corn remains above five thirty. Meal jumped seven eighty. Crude remains above one hundred, keeping freight and processing costs elevated.

SHAWN: This week changed the shape of the cattle story. Packers moved back into positive territory. Cash cattle refused to follow futures lower. Fresh fifties tightened sharply. Mexican feeder flows started reopening. Tyson made clear it is restructuring around a smaller cattle supply rather than waiting for the herd to rebuild. The shortage is not new. What changed this week is how clearly the industry is adapting to it.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-two. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four twenty-seven, last established September sixteenth. Fifties a dollar oh three. Pork cutout eighty-eight cents. October live cattle two fifteen sixty-five. October crude one oh one ninety-one. Thursday slaughter: cattle one hundred seven thousand, hogs four hundred ninety-three thousand, chicken thirty-five point seven eight four million. Year-to-date cattle down seven point six. Hogs down nine-tenths. Chicken up one point two.

SHAWN: Bottom line. The cattle herd still has not rebuilt. But the rest of the beef system is already adapting around the shortage. Packers are running harder because margins improved. Tyson is concentrating capacity where cattle actually exist. Mexican feeder cattle are beginning to return. Imported lean is filling part of the grind gap. Domestic trim can still move sharply even while boxed beef softens. Later today, Cattle on Feed will give another read on how many cattle are already in the system and how many were placed in August. This edition does not need that number to define the week. The market is adapting faster than the cattle herd is rebuilding. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 18, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | September 17, 2026

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September seventeenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Feedlots lost three hundred seven a head last week. Beef packers made one hundred seventy-seven. Across a five-thousand-head yard that’s about one point five million underwater. Domestic nineties are four twenty-eight. Fifties under eighty-seven cents. South American nineties still around three ten to three twenty. Those numbers change blend math. The Fed hiked another quarter point. On twenty million dollars that’s fifty thousand a year. If you’re still costing fall business on summer assumptions, sharpen the pencil.

HOST: Packers have reason to run. Positive margins don’t create cattle. Slaughter is down seven point seven percent year-to-date — about one point six million fewer head.

SHAWN: Futures broke. Cash and boxed beef did not confirm it. A fifty-fifty blend of nineties and fifties puts theoretical seventy C L raw material around two fifty-seven before yield and freight. Summer grind assumptions are done.

HOST: Pork producers at thirty-eight a head — less than half a year ago. Packers near two dollars. Retail pork has not followed wholesale lower.

SHAWN: Chicken is two markets. Tyson sees foodservice softness. Amylu is up one hundred seven percent at retail. Corn ratings at fifty-seven percent. Meal and energy still matter. S and P thinks the import window may deliver as little as one hundred twenty thousand tons. Price the arrival, not the headline. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Thursday Margin Monitor | September 17, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 17, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Feedlots lost three hundred seven dollars a head last week while beef packers made one hundred seventy-seven. Put that across a five-thousand-head yard and you’re talking about roughly one point five million underwater. Pork producers are still making thirty-eight a head, less than half a year ago, while Sterling has pork packers scraping out less than two dollars a head. What really has my attention is the grind. Domestic nineties are down to four twenty-eight. Fifties are under eighty-seven cents. South American nineties are still being shown around three ten to three twenty. Those numbers change blend calculations. The Fed raised rates another quarter point Wednesday. On twenty million dollars, that’s fifty thousand a year. That’s a pretty nice pickup truck disappearing from the P and L. If you’re still costing fall business using summer assumptions, sharpen the pencil.

HOST: Weekly packer margins have swung positive while feedlots remain more than three hundred a head underwater. Packers have reason to run cattle. Positive margins don’t create cattle. Year-to-date slaughter is down seven point seven percent — roughly one point six million head — following years of herd contraction. Mexican feeder flows remain constrained by the border situation. Pork producer margins have fallen from about eighty-two a head a year ago to thirty-eight, while packers are near breakeven. Wholesale pork has repriced substantially. Retail hasn’t. Chicken: retail and value-added keep finding winners while Tyson reports foodservice softness. A deteriorating corn outlook is rebuilding feed pressure. South American lean remains materially below competing origins, but the physical U.S. market still isn’t behaving as if the full three-hundred-thousand-ton headline volume is arriving.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot margins at minus three hundred seven nineteen a head, versus minus three twenty-eight last week and plus six sixty-eight a year ago. Beef packers improved to plus one seventy-seven sixteen from plus one seventy seventy-six. Oklahoma City seven-fifty to eight-hundred-pound feeder steers averaged three thirty-eight fifty-seven, putting Sterling’s current placement cost around three thousand three hundred ninety-nine a head and projected breakeven near two thirty forty-four. Sterling still projects the full-year twenty twenty-six packer margin at minus one fifty-three seventy-five. One profitable week doesn’t erase the cattle-cost problem.

HOST: Packers have more reason to run cattle today. Whether the cattle are there is another question. Years of drought and herd liquidation aren’t reversed overnight. Mexican cattle are only beginning to move again through Douglas. USDA cattle slaughter is down seven point seven percent year-to-date.

SHAWN: Wednesday produced a pretty good disconnect between paper and the physical market. October live cattle fell two twenty-five to two eighteen forty-five. October feeders lost four twenty to three twenty-nine sixty-five. Cash cattle didn’t confirm a comparable break. Choice boxed beef finished three seventy-five eighty-one. Select three fifty-four fifty-seven. Spread twenty-one twenty-four cents.

HOST: USDA called lean boneless sharply lower Wednesday. Fresh nineties averaged four twenty-eight. Eighty-fives three sixty-three sixty-seven. Fifties eighty-six eighty-three. At those values, a simple fifty-fifty blend of nineties and fifties puts the theoretical seventy C L raw-material cost around two fifty-seven a pound before processing, yield, freight, and other costs. Fed-cattle grind moved too. USDA reported eighty-one percent ground beef at three thirty-one oh seven on more than three hundred thirty-two thousand pounds. Summer grind assumptions no longer belong in fall costing.

SHAWN: Chicken is sending two different demand signals. Tyson has cited consumer softness in foodservice behind a lowered Chicken outlook. At retail, Amylu Foods reports dollar sales up one hundred seven percent year over year while expanding distribution from about eighty-seven thousand five hundred points in twenty twenty-five toward one hundred thirty thousand by the end of twenty twenty-six. Same species. Very different demand signal.

HOST: USDA’s corn-yield projection has fallen from an early trend estimate of one eighty-three to one seventy-eight point five. Good-to-excellent ratings have deteriorated to fifty-seven percent. Feed can represent as much as seventy percent of broiler and turkey production costs. One industry outlook puts twenty twenty-six twenty-seven cash corn in a five to five-fifty range. That’s going to get an integrator’s attention if foodservice is softer at the same time. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent — roughly eighty-one million more birds than this point last year.

SHAWN: Pork margins are getting tighter on both sides of the hog. Sterling’s farrow-to-finish margin fell to plus thirty-eight forty-five, down from forty-three forty-six last week, sixty eighty-nine a month ago, and eighty-one ninety-one a year ago. Packers averaged only plus one seventy a head. Wednesday’s corrected pork cutout closed eighty-six thirty-five, down a cent fifteen. Loins eighty-seven sixty-two. Bellies eighty-five thirty-eight. Picnics sixty-seven sixteen. Forty-twos seventy-three seventy-four. Seventy-twos ninety-five twenty-five.

HOST: Retail hasn’t followed wholesale. August retail pork averaged four eighty-nine a pound and has averaged four ninety-one through the first eight months. Last week’s cutout was sixteen percent below a year ago. The national base hog price was thirteen percent lower. Early-weaned pigs have gone from nearly one hundred a head in February to about forty-one. Forty-pound feeders from roughly one twenty-seven to fifty-six. The producer is still making money in Sterling’s model. The cushion is less than half what it was a year ago.

SHAWN: August meat sales don’t support a simple “consumer is weak” story. Total retail food and beverage units declined two point one percent, but inside protein it’s all over the board. Ground beef pounds were essentially flat. Ground chicken and pork remained stronger. Processed-meat pounds fell five point six. Frankfurters dropped ten point five. Foodservice is showing more pressure, with Q S R traffic down two point six percent year over year in late August. Kraft Heinz says Oscar Mayer accounted for roughly sixty percent of its first-half share losses, with packaging problems and lost shelf distribution contributing. Then put Amylu’s plus one hundred seven percent retail growth beside it. The consumer hasn’t quit buying protein. They’re moving around the meat case — and between channels.

HOST: South American lean remains one of the more compelling procurement spreads. Recent East Coast indications put South American nineties around three ten to three twenty, versus about three thirty-nine to three forty-two for Australian-New Zealand nineties. On ninety-five C L cow, the origin spread has recently been roughly forty to fifty cents. On a forty-thousand-pound load, fifty cents is twenty thousand dollars. You still have to account for spec, fresh versus frozen, freight, duty treatment, delivery terms, and basis. Twenty thousand dollars gets my attention.

SHAWN: The anticipated import surge still isn’t showing up in physical trade. S and P Global reported thin U.S. lean activity and a Brazilian packer saying U.S. demand had not accelerated following the three-hundred-thousand-ton tariff announcement. S and P Global Energy CERA suggested actual imports could be as low as one hundred twenty thousand metric tons during the window. That’s their number, not mine. Price the origin. Price the lean point. Price the basis. Price the arrival. Don’t price the headline.

HOST: Policy. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the Agriculture Act of twenty twenty-six Wednesday. Country-of-origin labeling, Proposition Twelve, and SNAP are worth following as it moves. USDA announced up to fifty million dollars for its Stand-Up Program to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection. Fifty million sounds substantial. National slaughter puts it in perspective. The two smallest processor categories represent ninety point eight percent of processors but only two point two percent of cattle slaughter. Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel estimates adding only one percent to national cattle slaughter would require roughly one hundred four additional plants processing fifty head a week. Small processing can make a real difference locally. It doesn’t replace national slaughter capacity.

SHAWN: December corn five thirty-four and a quarter, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen twenty and a half. October W T I dropped three forty to one oh two forty-three. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel remained five twenty-four a gallon. Don’t confuse lower crude with cheap refrigerated freight. Another quarter point on twenty million is fifty thousand a year. That’s real money when you’re carrying inventory.

HOST: Wednesday slaughter. Cattle one hundred two thousand. Hogs four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Chickens thirty-five point seven oh eight million. Year-to-date: cattle down seven point seven. Hogs down one percent. Chicken up one point]]>THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST

Thursday Margin Monitor | September 17, 2026

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 17, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Feedlots lost three hundred seven dollars a head last week while beef packers made one hundred seventy-seven. Put that across a five-thousand-head yard and you’re talking about roughly one point five million underwater. Pork producers are still making thirty-eight a head, less than half a year ago, while Sterling has pork packers scraping out less than two dollars a head. What really has my attention is the grind. Domestic nineties are down to four twenty-eight. Fifties are under eighty-seven cents. South American nineties are still being shown around three ten to three twenty. Those numbers change blend calculations. The Fed raised rates another quarter point Wednesday. On twenty million dollars, that’s fifty thousand a year. That’s a pretty nice pickup truck disappearing from the P and L. If you’re still costing fall business using summer assumptions, sharpen the pencil.

HOST: Weekly packer margins have swung positive while feedlots remain more than three hundred a head underwater. Packers have reason to run cattle. Positive margins don’t create cattle. Year-to-date slaughter is down seven point seven percent — roughly one point six million head — following years of herd contraction. Mexican feeder flows remain constrained by the border situation. Pork producer margins have fallen from about eighty-two a head a year ago to thirty-eight, while packers are near breakeven. Wholesale pork has repriced substantially. Retail hasn’t. Chicken: retail and value-added keep finding winners while Tyson reports foodservice softness. A deteriorating corn outlook is rebuilding feed pressure. South American lean remains materially below competing origins, but the physical U.S. market still isn’t behaving as if the full three-hundred-thousand-ton headline volume is arriving.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot margins at minus three hundred seven nineteen a head, versus minus three twenty-eight last week and plus six sixty-eight a year ago. Beef packers improved to plus one seventy-seven sixteen from plus one seventy seventy-six. Oklahoma City seven-fifty to eight-hundred-pound feeder steers averaged three thirty-eight fifty-seven, putting Sterling’s current placement cost around three thousand three hundred ninety-nine a head and projected breakeven near two thirty forty-four. Sterling still projects the full-year twenty twenty-six packer margin at minus one fifty-three seventy-five. One profitable week doesn’t erase the cattle-cost problem.

HOST: Packers have more reason to run cattle today. Whether the cattle are there is another question. Years of drought and herd liquidation aren’t reversed overnight. Mexican cattle are only beginning to move again through Douglas. USDA cattle slaughter is down seven point seven percent year-to-date.

SHAWN: Wednesday produced a pretty good disconnect between paper and the physical market. October live cattle fell two twenty-five to two eighteen forty-five. October feeders lost four twenty to three twenty-nine sixty-five. Cash cattle didn’t confirm a comparable break. Choice boxed beef finished three seventy-five eighty-one. Select three fifty-four fifty-seven. Spread twenty-one twenty-four cents.

HOST: USDA called lean boneless sharply lower Wednesday. Fresh nineties averaged four twenty-eight. Eighty-fives three sixty-three sixty-seven. Fifties eighty-six eighty-three. At those values, a simple fifty-fifty blend of nineties and fifties puts the theoretical seventy C L raw-material cost around two fifty-seven a pound before processing, yield, freight, and other costs. Fed-cattle grind moved too. USDA reported eighty-one percent ground beef at three thirty-one oh seven on more than three hundred thirty-two thousand pounds. Summer grind assumptions no longer belong in fall costing.

SHAWN: Chicken is sending two different demand signals. Tyson has cited consumer softness in foodservice behind a lowered Chicken outlook. At retail, Amylu Foods reports dollar sales up one hundred seven percent year over year while expanding distribution from about eighty-seven thousand five hundred points in twenty twenty-five toward one hundred thirty thousand by the end of twenty twenty-six. Same species. Very different demand signal.

HOST: USDA’s corn-yield projection has fallen from an early trend estimate of one eighty-three to one seventy-eight point five. Good-to-excellent ratings have deteriorated to fifty-seven percent. Feed can represent as much as seventy percent of broiler and turkey production costs. One industry outlook puts twenty twenty-six twenty-seven cash corn in a five to five-fifty range. That’s going to get an integrator’s attention if foodservice is softer at the same time. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent — roughly eighty-one million more birds than this point last year.

SHAWN: Pork margins are getting tighter on both sides of the hog. Sterling’s farrow-to-finish margin fell to plus thirty-eight forty-five, down from forty-three forty-six last week, sixty eighty-nine a month ago, and eighty-one ninety-one a year ago. Packers averaged only plus one seventy a head. Wednesday’s corrected pork cutout closed eighty-six thirty-five, down a cent fifteen. Loins eighty-seven sixty-two. Bellies eighty-five thirty-eight. Picnics sixty-seven sixteen. Forty-twos seventy-three seventy-four. Seventy-twos ninety-five twenty-five.

HOST: Retail hasn’t followed wholesale. August retail pork averaged four eighty-nine a pound and has averaged four ninety-one through the first eight months. Last week’s cutout was sixteen percent below a year ago. The national base hog price was thirteen percent lower. Early-weaned pigs have gone from nearly one hundred a head in February to about forty-one. Forty-pound feeders from roughly one twenty-seven to fifty-six. The producer is still making money in Sterling’s model. The cushion is less than half what it was a year ago.

SHAWN: August meat sales don’t support a simple “consumer is weak” story. Total retail food and beverage units declined two point one percent, but inside protein it’s all over the board. Ground beef pounds were essentially flat. Ground chicken and pork remained stronger. Processed-meat pounds fell five point six. Frankfurters dropped ten point five. Foodservice is showing more pressure, with Q S R traffic down two point six percent year over year in late August. Kraft Heinz says Oscar Mayer accounted for roughly sixty percent of its first-half share losses, with packaging problems and lost shelf distribution contributing. Then put Amylu’s plus one hundred seven percent retail growth beside it. The consumer hasn’t quit buying protein. They’re moving around the meat case — and between channels.

HOST: South American lean remains one of the more compelling procurement spreads. Recent East Coast indications put South American nineties around three ten to three twenty, versus about three thirty-nine to three forty-two for Australian-New Zealand nineties. On ninety-five C L cow, the origin spread has recently been roughly forty to fifty cents. On a forty-thousand-pound load, fifty cents is twenty thousand dollars. You still have to account for spec, fresh versus frozen, freight, duty treatment, delivery terms, and basis. Twenty thousand dollars gets my attention.

SHAWN: The anticipated import surge still isn’t showing up in physical trade. S and P Global reported thin U.S. lean activity and a Brazilian packer saying U.S. demand had not accelerated following the three-hundred-thousand-ton tariff announcement. S and P Global Energy CERA suggested actual imports could be as low as one hundred twenty thousand metric tons during the window. That’s their number, not mine. Price the origin. Price the lean point. Price the basis. Price the arrival. Don’t price the headline.

HOST: Policy. The Senate Agriculture Committee advanced the Agriculture Act of twenty twenty-six Wednesday. Country-of-origin labeling, Proposition Twelve, and SNAP are worth following as it moves. USDA announced up to fifty million dollars for its Stand-Up Program to help states establish or expand meat and poultry inspection. Fifty million sounds substantial. National slaughter puts it in perspective. The two smallest processor categories represent ninety point eight percent of processors but only two point two percent of cattle slaughter. Oklahoma State’s Derrell Peel estimates adding only one percent to national cattle slaughter would require roughly one hundred four additional plants processing fifty head a week. Small processing can make a real difference locally. It doesn’t replace national slaughter capacity.

SHAWN: December corn five thirty-four and a quarter, down a cent and a half. November soybeans thirteen twenty and a half. October W T I dropped three forty to one oh two forty-three. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel remained five twenty-four a gallon. Don’t confuse lower crude with cheap refrigerated freight. Another quarter point on twenty million is fifty thousand a year. That’s real money when you’re carrying inventory.

HOST: Wednesday slaughter. Cattle one hundred two thousand. Hogs four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Chickens thirty-five point seven oh eight million. Year-to-date: cattle down seven point seven. Hogs down one percent. Chicken up one point two. Roughly one point six million fewer cattle and eighty-one million more chickens through federally inspected slaughter versus twenty twenty-five.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Better packer margins don’t create more cattle. Pork at retail hasn’t followed wholesale lower. Chicken depends on where you’re selling it. Imported lean still has origin spreads worth thousands of dollars per load. The board tells you where the market traded. Your margin depends on what you bought, where it came from, how you blended it, how long you carried it, and where you sold it. That’s the math worth doing this morning. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 17, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September sixteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Having protein is not the same as having demand. Consumers are still buying. They are being more selective. Convenience, flavor, value. If the product does not give them a reason, they move on. Somebody still has to want the product. That is where the margin fight starts.

HOST: More cattle on feed does not mean more cattle becoming available.

SHAWN: Inventories may print one point eight percent above last year. Almost three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up eighteen point seven percent. That can make the report look comfortable without improving near-term availability. Year-to-date slaughter is still down seven point six percent. Choice closed three seventy-six. Futures sold off.

HOST: The quota is open. About fifteen thousand tons of the September tranche had cleared last week.

SHAWN: Three hundred thousand tons of access is not three hundred thousand tons arriving. South American nineties indicated around three oh eight to three fifteen East Coast. Domestic last established four thirty-five. Watch arrival, not the headline.

HOST: Pork cutout fell to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped almost eleven cents. Chicken still has the pounds. Meal jumped almost ten dollars. Crude one oh five.

SHAWN: Pork has supply. It needs reasons to consume it. Chicken remains the value story. Wisconsin added an HPAI detection — watch it, don’t over-read it. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure and the consumer decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I keep coming back to one thing this week: having protein is not the same as having demand. Holly Poultry is adding capacity around fresh, convenient, value-added chicken. Hardee’s is putting bacon everywhere it can. Japan grew pork consumption by giving consumers more ways to use the product. Meanwhile, Ruiz Foods is cutting production to better match what customers are actually buying. That tells me something. Consumers are still buying protein, but they are being more selective. Convenience matters. Flavor matters. Value matters. And if the product does not give them a reason to buy it, they will move on. We spend a lot of time talking about pounds, production, and supply. But somebody still has to want the product. That is where the real fight for margin starts.

HOST: Beef remains tight, but the composition of supply matters more than the headline on-feed number. Imported lean is cheaper, yet actual flow remains slower than the expanded quota suggests. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken remains comparatively balanced. Higher energy and feed costs are adding another layer of margin risk across the complex.

SHAWN: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report needs to be read beyond the headline inventory number. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect September first feedlot inventories one point eight percent above last year. The age of those cattle tells a more important story. The Daily Livestock Report estimates nearly three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up five hundred sixty-seven thousand head, or eighteen point seven percent year over year. Placements expected at ninety-six point eight percent of last year. Marketings ninety-six point one. Feedlots are getting more pounds from cattle already in the system. That can make total inventory look more comfortable without materially improving near-term cattle availability.

HOST: The physical market still reflects the constraint. USDA closed Tuesday with Choice three seventy-six oh eight. Select three fifty-six thirty-six. Spread nineteen seventy-two cents. October live cattle two twenty seventy, down a dollar fifty-five. October feeders three thirty-three eighty-five, down four dollars. Tuesday slaughter one hundred eight thousand. Year-to-date nineteen point one nine five million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: The rebuilding problem has not disappeared. High cattle values make retention attractive in theory, but they also make heifers valuable to sell today. Add drought, grass, water, and land constraints, and expansion remains difficult. Fertilizer belongs in that discussion too. If higher fertilizer costs reduce pasture inputs, they could limit productivity and carrying capacity.

HOST: The quota is open. The product is still slow to show.

SHAWN: S and P Global reported only about fifteen thousand metric tons of the September tranche had cleared as of last week. That raises questions about whether the first monthly tranche will be fully utilized. The temporary program permits an additional three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef trimmings in three thirty-day tranches capped at one hundred thousand each, through November thirtieth. S and P Global Energy CERA estimates actual South American volume during the full three-month window could be materially below the headline allowance because cattle remain expensive and plant activity has not increased enough to support that kind of export surge.

HOST: Economics still matter. South American ninety C L indications around three oh eight to three fifteen F C A East Coast, versus roughly three thirty-seven to three forty-two for Australia-New Zealand cow nineties. Domestic lean remains much higher. Tuesday did not establish a new fresh ninety. Last established USDA value four thirty-five twenty-seven. Fresh eighty-fives did establish at three sixty oh ninety-seven. Brazil and other eligible suppliers can take share from Australia and New Zealand without the United States ever receiving the full three hundred thousand tons. Price, eligibility, shipment timing, and physical arrival all have to line up.

SHAWN: Chicken continues to offer the cleanest supply position. USDA called Tuesday mostly steady, dark meat well supported, wing demand fair and somewhat lackluster. Year-to-date slaughter about six point eight two three billion birds, up one point two percent. Wisconsin confirmed HPAI in a commercial flock in Barron County. Flock size and species were not disclosed, so there is not enough information yet to assign a meaningful national production impact. Holly Poultry’s new eighty-thousand-square-foot Maryland facility may tell us more than another production statistic. The investment is aimed at fresh retail, private label, and value-added chicken built around convenience. Supply is available. Capital is still chasing the products consumers want to use.

HOST: Pork had the weakest physical-market move Tuesday. Afternoon cutout fell two twenty-eight cents to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped ten ninety-six cents to eighty-nine sixty-seven. Hams moved against the broader decline. Forty-twos seventy-four fifty-one. Seventy-twos ninety-three sixty-five. Negotiated hogs weakened. Tuesday slaughter four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Year-to-date hog slaughter only one percent below last year.

SHAWN: Japan did not build pork consumption simply by producing more pork. It developed products consumers wanted to eat. Tonkatsu created another outlet for loins. Beef-pork blended patties broadened ground applications. Export markets helped create value across the carcass. Hardee’s Bacon Beast platform is a smaller domestic version of the same idea: bacon across breakfast, beef, and chicken gives one raw material multiple reasons to be on the menu. Pork has supply. The challenge is creating enough reasons to consume it.

HOST: Policy. Authorization and utilization are two different things. The numbers that matter now are how much product actually clears, which origins gain share, and whether imported lean keeps enough of a discount to domestic product to keep moving. The proposed federal settlement with Agri Stats would restrict the timeliness and granularity of nonpublic chicken, pork, and turkey processor information. Reported statistics generally at least forty-five days old on average. Data reflecting production decisions at least ninety days old. Less timely company-level competitive intelligence.

SHAWN: Feed. The board moved higher Tuesday. December corn five thirty-five and three-quarters, up two and a half cents. November soybeans thirteen eighteen and three-quarters, up fourteen and a half. October meal three sixty ten, up nine ninety. A nearly ten-dollar meal move matters directly to pork and chicken, and it matters if higher feed costs change how long cattle stay on feed. October crude one oh five eighty-three, up four forty-four. When grain, meal, and energy strengthen together, the protein cost structure changes quickly. Fertilizer is the forward piece. Retail fertilizer does not have to be sharply higher today for sulfur, phosphate, and nitrogen pressures to become a twenty twenty-seven feed-production problem.

HOST: Radar. Fresh nineties did not establish Tuesday. Imported alternatives remain cheaper. Do not confuse quota capacity with physical inventory. Crude above one oh five and diesel above six flow into livestock movement, refrigerated freight, and delivered cost. Bellies after an almost eleven-cent drop deserve attention. Foodservice bacon activity is encouraging. The wholesale tape remains weak.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef remains a supply story. Pork is increasingly a demand story. Chicken remains the value and availability story. What is changing underneath all three is cost. Energy is higher. Meal jumped. Fertilizer risk is building. Imported beef can help the grind, but only if the product actually arrives. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure — and the consumer — decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September fifteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: The cutout didn’t do much Monday. The grind did.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Both sides of the blend got cheaper. Packers are making about eighty to one hundred ten a head — fourth profitable week. Cattle slaughter is still down seven point six percent year-to-date. The supply didn’t improve. The economics did. Wholesale relief is not automatically cheaper hamburger at retail.

HOST: Pork’s number is demand. August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent.

SHAWN: That weakness is estimated at about fifteen dollars a head. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand. Bellies dropped another ten cents to a dollar oh six. Chicken production is up. Breasts more than twenty-six percent cheaper than last year. Minnesota added HPAI detections. Watch the birds. Don’t call it a supply problem today.

HOST: Quota headline is three hundred thousand tons. USDA only raised the import forecast one hundred thirty million pounds. Fed decision Wednesday. Crude is one oh one.

SHAWN: Watch the offers, not the quota. Cheaper protein does less when it costs more to finance and move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. Beef is still expensive at retail, but the grind is getting cheaper. Pork has tightened production and still can’t get enough demand underneath it. Chicken keeps putting affordable pounds in front of the consumer. When the price gap gets wide enough, somebody loses an occasion. Beef can lose one to chicken. Pork can be cheap and still not win it. Retailers can get relief at wholesale and keep some of it before the consumer ever sees it. The consumer still wants protein. They just don’t have to buy the same one every week. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: Fresh beef trim gave grinders more room Monday. Nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Packer margins are positive again, so processors have more incentive to run cattle even while year-to-date slaughter remains down seven point six percent. Pork’s issue is clearer: August wholesale demand was down seventeen point three percent year over year. Chicken keeps the relative-value advantage, though new HPAI cases across the Upper Midwest put animal-health risk back in the conversation. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision. A quarter-point increase is widely expected.

SHAWN: The cutout did not do much Monday. The grind did. Fresh ninety C L finished around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three fifty-two. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. On the weekly averages, nineties fell two point eight percent and fifties nearly seven. For grinders, both sides of the blend got cheaper at the same time. That is a bigger development than another small move in Choice.

HOST: Packers have a reason to run again. Hales estimates calculated margins around plus eighty to plus one hundred ten a head — a fourth consecutive profitable week. Monday slaughter returned to one hundred six thousand after last week totaled five hundred five thousand. The cattle supply did not suddenly improve. USDA still shows slaughter seven point six percent below last year year-to-date. The economics improved.

SHAWN: Mexican cattle are moving again through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry. Current volume remains modest — roughly five hundred eighty to eight hundred fifty head a day presented for inspection. Some of the early cattle are reportedly seven hundred to nine hundred pounds, heavier than the traditional Mexican calf flow. The larger event would be Santa Teresa, New Mexico. That crossing historically handled far more volume. USDA has not confirmed a reopening date.

HOST: Retail is moving more slowly than wholesale. Beef and veal prices fell one percent in August, the second straight monthly decline, but remain five point nine percent above last year. Ground beef was essentially unchanged for the month. Wholesale relief does not automatically become consumer relief. Retailers have room to rebuild margin before every penny gets passed through the meat case.

SHAWN: Pork finally has a number that explains a lot. Wholesale pork demand in August was seventeen point three percent below August twenty twenty-five. The demand index fell from seventy-seven ninety-seven to sixty-four forty-nine. That weakness is estimated to have reduced market hog prices by roughly seven point five percent, or about fifteen twenty-four a head. And August was not a one-off. Wholesale pork demand averaged six point seven percent below last year from January through August.

HOST: Monday’s cutout finished almost unchanged at eighty-nine seventy-eight cents. Underneath it, the carcass was not quiet. Loins gained three thirty-nine cents. Butts added two forty-six. Picnics jumped five seventy-nine. Bellies dropped another ten thirty-three cents to a dollar oh six. On the weekly averages, bellies were down nearly eighteen percent, while hams gained more than eight and fresh seventy-twos increased seven point five. That creates opportunity between primals and raw materials. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand.

SHAWN: Chicken still has the price advantage. Weekly production reached eight hundred sixty-two point one million pounds, up four point one percent from last year, with year-to-date production running two point two percent higher. Boneless skinless breast values remain more than twenty-six percent below last year. USDA called the market mostly steady — whole birds steady, breast meat at least a steady undertone, wings about steady, dark meat active. Meat-department pounds grew two percent in twenty twenty-five. Millennials and Gen Z accounted for sixty-seven percent of meat unit growth. That matters when chicken can put a materially cheaper meal in front of the consumer.

HOST: The developing risk is HPAI. Minnesota added two commercial detections totaling sixty-two thousand three hundred birds — forty-four thousand three hundred meat turkeys and eighteen thousand breeder birds. Recent commercial cases also in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Manitoba. That is not a chicken supply problem today. With fall migration building, poultry health is back on the radar. Chicken has the pounds. Chicken has the price. Now watch the birds.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton temporary lean-beef quota is a large headline. USDA’s actual import forecast increase is much smaller. The Daily Livestock Report estimates the additional quota represents roughly nine hundred million pounds carcass weight, yet USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds in September. USDA now projects six point two six two billion pounds of beef imports in twenty twenty-six, up sixteen point two percent year over year, while domestic beef production is forecast down four point three percent. Brazil has every reason to look harder at the U.S. market. Paraguay has opportunity as well. Buyers will know whether the quota is changing the lean market before the final import statistics arrive. Watch the offers, not the quota headline.

HOST: The Federal Reserve announces Wednesday at two p.m. Eastern. A Reuters poll Monday found eighty-five percent of economists expecting a twenty-five-basis-point increase. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying inventory, financing working capital, and holding forward positions. October crude is already one oh one thirty-nine. December corn five thirty-three and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen oh four and a quarter. October meal three fifty twenty a ton. Cheaper protein does less for you when it costs more to finance it and move it.

SHAWN: Radar. Beef grind improving — nineties and fifties both lower. Pork demand high risk — August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent. Chicken still has the value advantage. Imported lean is an opportunity if Brazilian and South American forward nineties actually book. Douglas is moving cattle. Santa Teresa would bring substantially more volume. Crude above one hundred with the Fed on Wednesday.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-five. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout ninety cents. Bellies a dollar oh six. October live cattle two twenty-two twenty-five. Feeders three thirty-seven eighty-five. Lean hogs seventy-nine sixty.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef grind is getting cheaper even though cattle remain tight. Pork has less of a supply problem than a demand problem. Chicken still owns the relative-value argument. Imported lean and Mexican cattle are giving buyers more options around the edges, while energy and financing costs are pushing the other way. The consumer is still buying protein. They’re just choosing between them. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September fourteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline built to bypass Hormuz. Diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed, and every truck from plant to customer. Harvest is running on diesel too. We've spent a lot of time on the price of protein. This week, watch the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Grind math improved. Cattle profits moved. They didn't disappear.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties finished four thirty-seven. Fifties ninety-three cents. Sterling has packers around plus one sixty-nine and feedlots about minus three twenty-nine. Cow-calf still looks strong. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point six percent. Retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August while wholesale coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from June. Cheaper inputs and cheaper hamburger are not the same thing.

HOST: Pork broke again on bellies. Chicken still has the extra birds. HPAI is a watch item, not a supply reversal.

SHAWN: Weekly pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies down more than twenty-six cents. Brazil shipped more pork in August for less money. Chicken slaughter is up one point three percent. Cases in the northern Plains and Manitoba are a risk to that advantage—not proof it's gone. USDA only added one hundred thirty million pounds to the twenty twenty-six import forecast against a three-hundred-thousand-ton window. Watch utilization and landed lean, not the headline. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's not an energy story sitting off to the side of the protein market. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed inputs, and every truck moving product from a plant to a customer. Take it one step further back. Harvest is underway across the Corn Belt. Diesel runs the equipment harvesting corn and soybeans and the trucks moving those bushels. Those crops still have to be processed into feed and moved again before an animal ever reaches a plant. We've spent a lot of time talking about the price of protein. This week, I'd pay just as much attention to the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Energy moved sharply higher Monday morning after another disruption to Middle East oil infrastructure. Beef buyers have some relief in the grind. Fresh ninety C L finished the week at four thirty-seven. Fifties at ninety-three cents. Imported lean remains competitive. The cattle margin keeps shifting: packers positive, feedlots deeply negative, cow-calf returns still strong. Pork weakened again, led by a sharp break in bellies. Chicken still has the clearest supply cushion, though HPAI across the northern Plains and Manitoba deserves attention.

SHAWN: Friday's boxed beef: Choice three seventy-five ninety-four, down two forty-three cents. Select three fifty-three thirteen, up a cent. The spread narrowed to twenty-two eighty-one cents. USDA established fresh nineties at four thirty-six seventy-four on one point five one million pounds. Eighty-fives three sixty-eight eighty-seven. Fifties ninety-three oh four on more than two point one seven million pounds. That puts the ninety-fifty spread at three forty-three seventy. With fifties below a dollar, the fat side is becoming increasingly important to grind economics.

HOST: Imported lean adds another variable. Brazilian nineties still compete at a significant discount. Landed values and actual September arrivals matter more to fall blend math.

SHAWN: The cattle margin has shifted. Sterling estimates packers around plus one hundred sixty-nine a head. Feedlot margins have deteriorated to about minus three hundred twenty-nine, with breakevens at two forty-two fifty-two. CattleFax estimates cited by Drovers put cow-calf returns near plus fourteen hundred a head on their annual cost methodology. Those series aren't directly comparable. The direction is clear. Profits haven't disappeared from beef. They have moved. The pressure today is sitting in the feedlot.

HOST: Cash last week: North mostly two eighteen to two nineteen. South two twenty-two to two twenty-three. Year-to-date cattle slaughter eighteen point nine eight four million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: There is also a disconnect between wholesale and retail ground beef. Average retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August, up seven point nine percent year over year, even though wholesale eighty-one C L coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from its June peak. Steiner expects more seasonal pressure on wholesale values in September and October, and notes retailers may use some of that decline to rebuild margins. Cheaper inputs and cheaper retail hamburger aren't necessarily the same thing.

HOST: Chicken. Whole bird one sixteen oh eight, down a third of a cent. Breasts one twenty-one thirty-five. Wings one ten oh two, down another two thirty-five cents. Year-to-date slaughter about six point seven five seven billion birds, up one point three percent, against cattle down seven point six and hogs down one percent.

SHAWN: HPAI deserves renewed attention, not an overreaction. Commercial cases in South Dakota, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Canada confirmed a commercial case in Manitoba after nearly four months without a new commercial-flock infection. HPAI is a risk to chicken's supply advantage—not evidence that the advantage has disappeared.

HOST: Pork weakened again. Weekly cutout ninety-one seventy-seven, down three twenty-six cents. Loins eighty-eight sixty-five. Picnics sixty-seven oh nine. Bellies a dollar twenty-one, down twenty-six twenty-seven cents. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-six. Seventy-twos eighty-eight eighty-five. Negotiated hogs eighty-five thirty-eight, down a dollar forty-eight. Year-to-date hog slaughter eighty-seven point two two zero million, down one percent.

SHAWN: Brazil exported about one hundred thirty-one thousand metric tons of pork in August, up eight percent year over year, while export revenue declined about two percent. More product moved at less value. The global pork market keeps diversifying away from post-A S F dependence on China. Mexico and Southeast Asia matter more. Brazil is competing hard for those customers. Lower projected production hasn't translated into stronger product values. Demand remains the issue.

HOST: Global energy. Attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had been moving roughly four million barrels a day toward Red Sea terminals as an alternative around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Exports can temporarily continue from storage at Yanbu. There is no firm repair timeline. Shipping risk remains elevated around Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor. Monday morning W T I traded above one hundred three. Diesel futures above five dollars a gallon. Extended disruption raises fuel and freight exposure across domestic and imported protein supply chains.

SHAWN: Policy. USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds after the additional three hundred thousand metric tons of temporary in-quota lean access through November. Some early September clearances were Brazilian beef already in bonded warehouses. Normal shipping lead times limit how much newly produced beef can reach the U.S. during the temporary window. Brazil still has strong incentive to move product. China's safeguard has constrained volume there. New European restrictions have complicated another premium outlet. The next useful information isn't another quota headline. It's weekly utilization, Brazilian offers, and landed lean values against domestic nineties.

HOST: Procurement radar. Duration of the Saudi pipeline outage and the response in diesel, trucking, and ocean freight. Imported nineties landed against domestic four thirty-six seventy-four. Cash leverage after last week's North-South split. Slaughter response with packers back in the black. Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Corn stocks-to-use remains tight after WASDE despite Friday's grain selloff. Soybean supply is more comfortable. Watch HPAI case progression as fall migration develops.

SHAWN: Friday futures close. October live cattle two nineteen sixty-seven, up a dollar eighty-five. Feeders three thirty-two fifty, up four ninety-five. Lean hogs eighty-one fifty-two, down a dollar sixty-two. December corn five thirty and a quarter. November soybeans twelve ninety-six and a half, down thirty-five and three-quarters cents. October meal three forty-six eighty. W T I Friday close one hundred oh five, down two forty-three—before this morning's jump.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Beef grind inputs are moving in the buyer's direction. Domestic nineties at four thirty-seven. Fifties below a dollar. The cattle margin has shifted again—packers positive, feedlots absorbing expensive cattle. Pork remains under pressure despite slightly lower slaughter. Chicken still carries the strongest supply position. Friday's grain selloff made feed look easier than the underlying corn balance sheet suggests. Energy added another layer of cost risk over the weekend. Harvest, feed manufacturing, trucking, refrigeration, and global protein trade all become more expensive if diesel stays elevated. The protein markets are providing some relief in places. The cost structure isn't. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Special Report | September 11, 2026

The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. It took another piece of the cushion away. Corn yield fell two point two bushels to one seventy-eight point five. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million. The farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty.

HOST: Soybeans made more crop. Meal still went higher.

SHAWN: Production rose to four point five three five billion bushels. Stronger exports pulled stocks to three hundred ten million. Soybeans to twelve dollars. Meal up thirty dollars to three hundred forty a short ton. That is the number poultry and pork cannot overlook. Feed is no longer getting cheaper by default.

HOST: Protein side. Beef production down. Imports up. Chicken still adding pounds.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef ninety million pounds and raised imports one hundred thirty million on stronger South American shipments. The quota does not create cattle. It creates another source of lean. Pork production and exports were both trimmed. Chicken twenty twenty-six is still nearly one point six billion pounds above last year — now against a firmer feed outlook.

HOST: The crop is still big.

SHAWN: The cushion is getting smaller. Watch harvest versus one seventy-eight point five. Watch whether three point two seven five billion corn exports hold. Watch meal at three forty. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA cut corn yield, production, and ending stocks — and raised feed-cost expectations.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. But it took another meaningful piece of the cushion away. Corn yield dropped two point two bushels. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks fell another eighty-six million, and USDA added thirty cents to the farm-price forecast. Soybeans produced more, but stronger exports absorbed the increase. Ending stocks moved lower, soybeans went up sixty cents, and soybean meal jumped thirty dollars a short ton. For protein producers, that is the part of this report I would not overlook. Beef supply is still tight. Chicken is still adding pounds. Pork remains comparatively balanced. But the feed side of the equation is no longer getting cheaper by default. The crop is still big. The cushion is not as big as it was.

HOST: September tightened the feed outlook again.

SHAWN: USDA cut corn yield from one hundred eighty point seven to one hundred seventy-eight point five bushels an acre. Production fell two hundred thirteen million bushels to fifteen point eight hundred billion. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million bushels to one point five six seven billion. The season-average farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty. Exports stayed at three point two seven five billion bushels. Soybean production increased slightly to four point five three five billion, but stronger exports pulled ending stocks down to three hundred ten million bushels. USDA raised soybeans to twelve dollars and soybean meal to three hundred forty dollars a short ton. On the protein side, USDA lowered beef and pork production, raised expected twenty twenty-six beef imports on stronger South American shipments, and increased the twenty twenty-seven broiler-production outlook.

HOST: Corn is the headline. Big crop. Smaller cushion.

SHAWN: Harvested acreage slipped from eighty-eight point six to eighty-eight point five million acres. Beginning stocks were cut from one point nine four five billion to one point nine two two billion. USDA left ethanol use unchanged at five point six billion and cut feed and residual from six point one hundred billion to five point nine five zero billion. Even with lower feed use, carryout still fell eighty-six million bushels. This is still a large crop. The balance sheet has less room in it. USDA maintained strong export demand, reduced feed use, and still took more out of stocks. For livestock and poultry producers, the feed outlook is less forgiving than it looked earlier this summer.

HOST: Soybeans tightened for a different reason.

SHAWN: Production rose from four point five one nine billion to four point five three five billion. Yield ticked up to fifty-two point eight. Harvested area eighty-five point nine million acres. Exports were raised from one point six six zero billion to one point six eight five billion. That pushed ending stocks from three hundred twenty million to three hundred ten million. Crush stayed at two point seven eight zero billion. More beans did not translate into cheaper protein feed. For poultry and pork margins, the thirty-dollar-per-short-ton meal increase is the number that matters most.

HOST: Wheat. U.S. balance sheet essentially unchanged.

SHAWN: Production remains one point five three one billion bushels. Exports seven hundred seventy-five million. Ending stocks seven hundred seventeen million. USDA raised the farm price from six twenty to six forty. Globally, wheat moved the other direction from corn. Production increased to eight hundred twenty-two point four three million metric tons and ending stocks to two hundred seventy-six point two nine, helped by larger crops in Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. Wheat is not the major feed story this month. But the higher U.S. price forecast reinforces the point: September was not a more bearish feed report.

HOST: Global corn tightened with the U.S. sheet.

SHAWN: World production fell from one thousand two hundred ninety-eight point eight eight million metric tons to one thousand two hundred ninety point nine five. World ending stocks from two hundred seventy-four point six six to two hundred seventy-two point one zero. Brazilian production stayed at one hundred thirty-nine million metric tons, but exports were cut from forty-four to forty-three as more corn stays home. Russia’s crop was also reduced. September removed corn supply cushion both domestically and globally.

HOST: Beef. Production lower. Imports higher.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef production from twenty-five point zero three five billion pounds to twenty-four point nine four five billion — ninety million pounds lower than August. Twenty twenty-seven production was cut from twenty-five point zero four eight billion to twenty-four point nine zero three billion. Twenty twenty-six beef imports rose from six point one three two billion pounds to six point two six two billion — up one hundred thirty million pounds. USDA cited stronger expected shipments from South America while the expanded quota allows qualifying beef to enter at reduced tariffs through November. The cattle-supply problem has not changed. The sourcing equation has. More imported lean can affect grind economics even while domestic beef production remains constrained.

HOST: Chicken still owns the supply-growth advantage.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six broiler production was left essentially unchanged at forty-nine point zero nine zero billion pounds — still nearly one point six billion pounds above twenty twenty-five. For twenty twenty-seven, USDA raised production from forty-nine point three six six billion to forty-nine point four six five billion. Per-capita disappearance is projected at one hundred six point eight pounds in twenty twenty-six and one hundred seven point seven in twenty twenty-seven. Those additional pounds are now being produced against a somewhat firmer feed-cost outlook.

HOST: Pork. Supply trimmed. Exports softer.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six pork production fell from twenty-seven point eight nine two billion pounds to twenty-seven point seven eight seven billion. Exports were cut from seven point one seven five billion to seven point one one zero billion. For twenty twenty-seven, production fell to twenty-eight point zero eight six billion and exports to seven point one nine zero billion. This remains a different setup from beef. USDA removed production and also reduced export demand. That keeps pork comparatively balanced domestically while putting more attention on feed costs and margins.

HOST: The quota is now in the balance sheet.

SHAWN: Expanded quota, stronger South American shipments, higher U.S. beef imports, more lean available to the grind complex. The quota does not create cattle. It does create another source of lean.

HOST: What I’m watching. Does one hundred seventy-eight point five corn yield hold. USDA kept corn exports at three point two seven five billion despite the smaller crop. Soybean meal at three hundred forty changes the margin conversation. South American beef arrivals — USDA has now raised the official import forecast. Firmer feed expectations matter most to chicken and pork. And USDA lowered cattle-price expectations even while reducing beef production.

SHAWN: Bottom line. September did not create a feed shortage. It reduced the cushion. USDA removed two hundred thirteen million bushels of corn production, cut ending stocks another eighty-six million, and raised the corn-price forecast thirty cents. Soybean production increased, but stronger exports reduced stocks and pushed meal thirty dollars a short ton higher. For protein producers, the feed backdrop is no longer automatically getting cheaper. Beef remains tight. Imports become more relevant. Pork stays comparatively balanced. Chicken keeps adding pounds. The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning I was in Oklahoma City. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Today I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that — the week. Packer margins turned positive. Feedlots went deeper in the red.

SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one hundred sixty-nine a head and unhedged feedlots at minus three twenty-nine. A year ago feedlots were making more than seven hundred. Asking prices this morning were two twenty-five live and higher. One profitable packer week does not fix the cattle problem.

HOST: Grind math improved. Fifties fell to about ninety-one cents. Domestic nineties around four thirty-five. Imported lean still near three oh five.

SHAWN: Watch the blend. The tariff-free window is three hundred thousand metric tons. S and P thinks Brazil and Paraguay may only ship thirty-five to forty thousand a month. The window is real. The assumption that all of it shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Pork is squeezed on both sides. Chicken still has the extra pounds. Crude closed above one hundred two.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork and Hog Production losses in the third quarter. July pork stayed home. Recheck landed cost. A raw-material opening can disappear before the load reaches the plant. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning, I was in Oklahoma City working as a commodity and futures broker and hedging specialist. I remember exactly where I was when September 11 began to unfold. I remember watching it happen and realizing very quickly that whatever we thought that Tuesday was going to be about no longer mattered. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Twenty-five years later, I still think about the people who went to work that morning and never came home, the first responders who ran toward danger, and the families who have carried that loss every day since. Today, I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that remembrance — the week. The shortened post-Labor Day tape ended with margin pressure shifting rather than disappearing.

SHAWN: Beef packers regained weekly profitability while feedlots moved deeper into the red. Pork margins compressed across both production and processing. Chicken remains the major protein with growing supply. Imported lean continues to trade well below domestic, although physical availability may limit how quickly the new tariff-free window is filled. Crude’s move above one hundred dollars added another layer of cost across freight, processing, and distribution.

HOST: Beef. The margin moved.

SHAWN: Sterling’s Beef Profit Tracker has estimated packer margin at plus one hundred sixty-nine twenty-two a head. Unhedged feedlot margin deteriorated to minus three hundred twenty-eight seventy-five. The breakeven on cattle marketed last week climbed to two forty-two fifty-two against five-area Choice steers averaging two nineteen oh four. A year ago, feedlots were making more than seven hundred a head. One profitable week does not mean the packing problem is solved.

HOST: Cattle sellers were pushing back Friday morning.

SHAWN: Asking prices moved to two twenty-five and higher live, with a small northern dressed trade reported at three fifty-five. Packers are buying for a full upcoming week, but feeders have little incentive to keep surrendering margin now that their own economics have turned sharply negative. Choice was around three seventy-eight. Select held near three fifty-two.

HOST: The more interesting move may be in the grind.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties were around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three seventy-nine. Fresh fifties fell to roughly ninety-one cents. USDA characterized beef trimmings as mostly sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings. That changes the equation even if domestic lean remains expensive. The ninety is only half the story. Watch the blend.

HOST: Chicken. Supply remains the difference.

SHAWN: Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent. Cumulative broiler chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five. USDA describes whole birds as steady with adequate supplies, breast meat at least steady, fair wing demand, and firm dark meat. Export markets were active. Twenty-seven members of Congress are pressing U S T R over remaining China poultry restrictions, arguing lost access is costing U.S. producers more than eight hundred million dollars a year. The pounds are there. Export access will help determine where they clear.

HOST: Pork. Both sides are getting squeezed.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish at forty-three forty-six a head, down from forty-six eighty-eight last week and seventy-six sixty-eight a year ago. Packer margin narrowed to two seventeen a head. Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar third-quarter operating loss in Fresh Pork, with Hog Production projected to lose another twenty-five to forty-five million. The cutout was around ninety-two cents, with bellies taking another significant step lower.

HOST: Demand is part of it.

SHAWN: July U.S. pork exports fell to five hundred twenty-eight point seven million pounds, down four point six percent year over year and almost one hundred fifty million pounds below the March peak. After production, exports, and imports, Steiner estimates domestic pork availability was two point nine percent above last year. More pork is staying home while margins tighten on both sides of the chain.

HOST: Global. The import window meets physical reality.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton tariff-free beef window is one of the biggest fall variables. S and P Global says it may be difficult for Brazil and Paraguay to ship anything approaching one hundred thousand metric tons a month. Their team currently estimates U.S. imports could run around thirty-five to forty thousand metric tons a month under current conditions. At that pace, a substantial portion of the window would remain unused. Brazil-origin ninety C L has been indicated around three oh five or lower, against domestic fresh nineties still above four thirty-five. China’s Brazilian beef quota was reported about ninety-nine percent complete. Australian cattle remain tight. Asian buyers continue competing for product. The tariff window is real. The assumption that all three hundred thousand metric tons simply shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Policy. COOL is back in the political discussion. There is not yet a new mandatory beef-labeling regime. An actual rule change matters more than the headline. On poultry, Chinese access remains unresolved while U.S. chicken supplies keep growing. On beef, implementation of the tariff-free window — not the headline number — will determine how much additional lean actually reaches U.S. buyers.

SHAWN: This week in review. Packer margins turned positive as feedlot losses deepened. Domestic nineties softened, fifties dropped below a dollar, and imported lean stayed substantially cheaper. Smithfield warned of third-quarter losses while Sterling showed pork profitability tightening. Chicken slaughter and placements remain ahead of last year. Crude moved above one hundred.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Blend economics are improving faster than the domestic ninety price alone suggests. Cheaper fifties and discounted imported lean deserve as much attention as domestic lean. Falling wholesale pork values create buying opportunities, but weak producer and packer margins say the economics remain unsettled. Chicken coverage is still structurally less constrained than beef. Recheck landed-cost assumptions. This week’s move above one hundred crude can erase part of a raw-material advantage before the load reaches the plant.

HOST: Into Monday: cash cattle leverage, imported ninety bookings, pork cutout stabilization, post-WASDE feed direction, and whether crude holds above one hundred.

SHAWN: Latest established values from September tenth. Choice three seventy-eight. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Eighty-fives three seventy-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies a dollar twenty-one. October live cattle two seventeen eighty-two. October crude one oh two forty-eight. Cattle slaughter year-to-date down eight percent. Hogs down one point two. Chicken up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The shortened week gave buyers some openings. Fat trim is cheaper. Domestic lean is backing away from summer highs. Imported lean remains heavily discounted. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken continues to carry more supply. None of those opportunities exist in a vacuum. Cattle sellers are trying to regain leverage. Global buyers are competing for imported beef. Crude above one hundred raised the cost of moving protein through the system. The opportunity is there. The question next week is how much of it survives the landed cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September tenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October. Over fifteen years, October nineties have averaged four point nine percent below September—and lower every year. Cattle slaughter is down eight percent. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has.

HOST: Wednesday was not one margin story.

SHAWN: Choice gained three twenty. Select lost three oh five. The spread blew out to twenty-eight forty-three. Fifties dropped to ninety-three cents. Nineties and eighty-fives did not establish. Cash cattle stayed quiet. Late-week trade matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Pork has cheaper hogs and a compressed spread. Chicken has more birds. Crude jumped three dollars to ninety-six.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar Fresh Pork loss in the third quarter while Hog Production stays profitable. Bellies bounced almost fourteen cents after Tuesday's break. Corn fell into Friday's crop report. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost did not.

HOST: The quota is about nineteen percent used. Imports were already filling the hole.

SHAWN: July production was short about a hundred million pounds. Imports made up most of the domestic gap. More access is not unlimited beef. Watch October. Watch what actually gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October.

HOST: Labor Day is behind us. Fresh fifties are back below a dollar. Domestic nineties are off their summer highs. Imported lean remains well below domestic.

SHAWN: Normally, the calendar starts giving buyers some help here. Over the last fifteen years, October ninety C L has averaged four point nine percent below September—and it has been lower every single year. But domestic cattle slaughter is down eight percent, cow availability remains tight, and imports are filling more of the pounds we aren't producing here. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has. The question is how much leverage buyers actually get this fall.

HOST: There wasn't one margin story Wednesday. There were several.

SHAWN: Beef split. Choice gained three twenty to three eighty oh seven. Select lost three oh five to three fifty-two thirty-four. That widened the Choice-Select spread six twenty-five cents in one session to twenty-eight forty-three a hundredweight. Fresh fifty C L dropped another six fifty-two cents to ninety-three forty-six cents on more than one point two seven million pounds. USDA did not establish fresh nineties or eighty-fives Wednesday. Tuesday's last prints were four thirty-eight thirty-seven for nineties and three fifty-five forty-four for eighty-fives.

HOST: The supply side remains the counterweight.

SHAWN: Wednesday cattle slaughter was one hundred nine thousand. Year-to-date slaughter is eighteen point six nine five million head, down eight percent. Tuesday included twenty-one thousand cows and bulls. So the grind looks different than this summer: cheaper fat, domestic lean off the highs, imported lean well below domestic—and fewer domestic cattle pounds underneath it. Cash cattle stayed quiet in the holiday-shortened week. The late-week cash number matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Chicken still has what the other proteins don't: more supply.

SHAWN: National composite whole bird held at one sixteen forty. Northeast boneless skinless breast increased a cent and a quarter to one twenty-two eighteen. Leg quarters gained to fifty-three thirty-six cents. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is six point six eight two billion birds, up one point two percent. Cattle slaughter is down eight. Hog slaughter is down one point three.

HOST: Feed helped. Energy did not.

SHAWN: December corn fell five and three-quarters cents to five twenty-seven and three-quarters ahead of Friday's USDA crop report. Harvest is starting. Yield expectations remain wide. October crude jumped three dollars and two cents to ninety-six oh five. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost didn't get the same help.

HOST: Pork is the margin divide.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork to post a seventy to ninety million dollar adjusted operating loss in the third quarter, primarily from fresh-pork spread compression. Hog Production is expected to make twenty-five to forty-five million. Packaged Meats is still expected to generate one point oh seven five to one point one five billion for the year. Same protein chain. Three very different places to make—or lose—money. Tyson has described the same problem: lower livestock costs help, but not when product values fall faster than the cheaper hog.

HOST: Wednesday's cutout gained a cent eighty-one to ninety-three sixty-three. It was not a broad move.

SHAWN: Bellies rebounded thirteen ninety-three cents to a dollar thirty-two after falling almost sixteen cents Tuesday. Loins fell three forty-eight cents. Picnics, ribs, and butts slipped. Hams gained. Forty-twos finished eighty-four eighty-one cents. Seventy-twos eighty-nine seventy-eight. Cheaper hogs help. They don't help enough when what you're selling falls faster than what you're buying.

HOST: Global. The imported lean market was quiet coming out of Labor Day. The price difference is not.

SHAWN: S and P assessed imported ninety C L at three oh five F C A East Coast and three twenty-three C I F East Coast on September eighth. Unchanged on the day. Chinese interest in Brazilian beef has started to emerge again. Volumes remain uncertain. Brazil exported forty thousand five hundred eighty-two metric tons of fresh and frozen beef in the first four business days of September. Australian beef exports through September seventh were down fourteen percent year over year, shipments to the U.S. down eight point five. We have more access. That doesn't mean the rest of the world suddenly has unlimited beef to sell us.

HOST: Policy. Imports were already doing the work.

SHAWN: September's one hundred thousand metric ton Affordable Beef tranche was about nineteen point three percent utilized through September ninth. Roughly eighty thousand seven hundred metric tons left. The bigger story started before September. July U.S. beef imports were five hundred forty-one point six million pounds carcass weight, up nineteen percent. Through July, three point eight three eight billion pounds, up twelve point nine percent. July U.S. production was about one hundred million pounds below last year. After lower exports, the domestic shortfall was about eighty-seven million pounds. Imports increased about eighty-five million. July exports fell six point one percent. Brazilian shipments to the U.S. in August for September arrival were about thirty-one thousand three hundred thirty-two metric tons, or roughly ninety-four million pounds carcass weight. The new quota didn't create America's need for imported beef. It changes access and economics. The supply hole was already there.

HOST: Procurement radar. Late-week cash cattle. Next established USDA ninety C L print. Quota utilization, physical arrivals, and delivered values on imported lean. Whether belly volatility keeps carrying the pork cutout. Friday's crop report. Whether crude holds near ninety-six after a three-dollar day.

SHAWN: Labor Day shortened the production week. Week-to-date slaughter comparisons are not a normal five-day week.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Wednesday didn't give us one margin story. Beef buyers got cheaper fifties, but cattle supply remains tight. Pork has cheaper hogs, but processors are still fighting the spread. Chicken got some help from corn, while higher crude pushed against delivered cost. Imported beef continues filling part of the domestic gap. Lower inputs are showing up. Keeping the savings is the harder part. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September ninth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved. Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than a dime under last week. Brazilian nineties are indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port. Fifties did not establish.

HOST: Cheap imported lean can change grind math. Indications are not bookings.

SHAWN: Brazilian sellers are watching China. U.S. buyers are waiting on domestic lean. Until volume actually books, we don't know how much of that discount hits U.S. nineties or the finished grind. Access is three hundred thousand metric tons. Access is not arrivals.

HOST: Chicken has more supply. Demand is uneven. Pork's problem is demand, not efficiency.

SHAWN: Chicken production is three to four percent above last year. Tenders and wings are the foodservice weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports looked better Tuesday. Bellies dropped nearly sixteen cents. Hog slaughter is down. Pork production is up. Efficiency makes pounds. It does not make reasons to buy them.

HOST: Harvest is five percent done. Crude settled at ninety-three.

SHAWN: Crop ratings are worse than last year. Friday's USDA report is the next feed checkpoint. Ninety-three-dollar oil is already in freight, refrigeration, and inputs. Don't trade the headline. Watch what gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said quit watching nineties by themselves and watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved.

HOST: Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than ten cents below last week's average. Brazilian ninety C L is being indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port.

SHAWN: That doesn't mean Brazilian beef automatically trades here. Sellers are watching China while U.S. buyers wait to see where domestic lean settles. And fifties didn't establish Tuesday, so we still don't have the other half of the blend equation.

HOST: That's the post-Labor Day market.

SHAWN: The imported lean is cheap enough to change the grind equation. Now we need to see whether U.S. buyers actually buy it—and what that does to domestic nineties and fifties. The calendar changed. Now price discovery has to catch up.

HOST: Beef first. The blend started moving.

SHAWN: Tuesday's fresh ninety C L national average was four thirty-eight, versus last week's four forty-nine weekly average. USDA reported more than seven hundred thirty-two thousand pounds of fresh ninety trade. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three fifty-five. Fresh fifties did not establish.

HOST: Offshore, the discount is large.

SHAWN: Brazilian nineties near three oh three to three oh five at the U.S. port. Australia-New Zealand around three twenty-three C I F East Coast. These aren't directly interchangeable quotes, but the discount to domestic fresh lean is substantial. The important word is indications. Actual business remains limited. U.S. trimming imports through August twenty-ninth reached about six hundred seventy-three thousand five hundred metric tons, up sixteen point five percent year over year. Tight cattle supplies haven't disappeared. Year-to-date slaughter remains well below last year. Heavier carcasses are cushioning some of the production decline.

HOST: Takeaway on lean.

SHAWN: Brazilian lean is cheap enough to change blend economics. Until U.S. buyers start booking meaningful volume, we don't know how much of that discount works into domestic nineties—or the finished grind.

HOST: Chicken. More supply. Uneven demand.

SHAWN: Ready-to-cook production is tracking roughly three to four percent above twenty twenty-five. Tenders and wings—two foodservice-heavy cuts—are tracking toward their lowest annual average prices since twenty eleven. Inflation-adjusted restaurant sales were down about one percent year over year from March through May. But Tuesday's physical market was a counterpoint. USDA called chicken mostly steady, adequate supplies, moderate demand. Tender demand increasing. Dark meat clearing well. Exports active.

HOST: HPAI is back on the radar. About two hundred fifty thousand six hundred commercial birds in recent Upper Midwest detections, ahead of fall migration.

SHAWN: More chicken is coming. The pressure isn't uniform. Foodservice-heavy cuts remain the weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports are showing better current demand.

HOST: Pork. More pounds won't fix demand.

SHAWN: Bellies grabbed the headline Tuesday, dropping nearly sixteen cents. That's not the larger story. Pork's share of U.S. consumer food spending fell from four point six percent in two thousand one to three point three percent in twenty twenty-five. Year-to-date hog slaughter is below last year while pork production is slightly higher. Production incentives reward feed conversion, growth, and pigs per sow. Consumers reward eating quality, convenience, and value. Producing another pound more efficiently doesn't create another pound of demand. Pork doesn't need beef or chicken to lose for pork to win. The opportunity is getting consumers to value pork more.

HOST: Global. China's next bid matters.

SHAWN: Brazilian beef shipments to China fell to sixteen thousand eighty-one metric tons in August, down more than eighty percent from July, as China's twenty twenty-six Brazilian beef quota approaches exhaustion. Some exporters are already talking twenty twenty-seven quota business. The U.S. has opened temporary additional access for lean beef. Brazil can compete here, wait for China, or move product elsewhere. Australia and New Zealand sit in the middle of that pricing pressure.

HOST: Policy. Access isn't the same as arrivals.

SHAWN: The temporary lean-beef expansion is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches through November. Three hundred thousand of announced access does not equal three hundred thousand arriving. USDA and USTR are directed to monitor a pricing condition. If it isn't met, the remaining additional quota can be pulled. Congress has also moved to constrain it. Watch how fast the first tranche fills, which origins participate, where Brazilian nineties actually transact, and whether the full program lasts through November.

HOST: Feed. Harvest started. Cost risk didn't end.

SHAWN: Corn harvest is five percent complete, ahead of the three percent five-year average. Only fifty-six percent of the crop is rated good or excellent versus sixty-eight percent last year. Some Illinois field reports are twenty to forty bushels below last year. Friday's USDA update is the next checkpoint. Energy moved the other way. October W T I settled ninety-three oh three, up a dollar forty-one. November Brent finished ninety-seven ninety-two after trading as high as ninety-nine forty-six. That exposure runs through diesel, freight, refrigeration, processing, and inputs.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Watch actual U.S. bookings of Brazilian nineties—not just offers. The next fifty C L print matters because cheaper fat can lower grind cost before imported lean fully works in. Look past Tuesday's belly break. Fall ham demand may tell us more about pork's next leg. Friday's crop update can move feed while ninety-three-dollar crude has already changed freight and inputs.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-eight, up a cent and a half. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-eight. Fresh eighty-fives three fifty-five. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies one eighteen, down almost sixteen cents. October live cattle two seventeen oh two, up four oh seven. October feeders three twenty-five forty-five, up five thirty. October hogs eighty-four twenty-five, up a dollar ninety-five. December corn five thirty-three and a half. October crude ninety-three oh three.

SHAWN: Cattle slaughter year-to-date down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Hog slaughter down seven-tenths. Pork production up four-tenths. Chicken production up two point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The first post-Labor Day numbers are separating the stories. Domestic lean moved lower, but imported nineties still have to turn cheap offers into actual U.S. business. Pork's bigger problem is demand, not production efficiency. Chicken has more supply, but demand isn't weak across every cut. Harvest begins to answer the corn question. Ninety-three-dollar crude adds another cost risk. This isn't the week to trade the headline. Watch what actually gets bought, where demand holds, and which costs really move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September eighth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Labor Day is in the rearview. So is the last major grilling holiday of the summer. I'd quit watching nineties by themselves. Watch the blend—and watch the calendar.

HOST: Cattle are still tight. The grind is not the same tape.

SHAWN: Beef-cow slaughter is down about fourteen percent through August. Total cattle slaughter is down seven point five. Fresh nineties backed off to four forty-nine. Fifties fell to about a dollar, after nearly one ninety in the second quarter. Choice finished three seventy-six. Select three fifty-six. October live cattle two twelve ninety-five.

HOST: Pork is a margin split. Chicken is the supply protein.

SHAWN: Weekly pork cutout averaged ninety-five cents. Bellies dragged the week, then rebounded Friday. Smithfield made more money raising hogs and less money in packaged meats. Chicken slaughter is up one point six percent. Wings dropped more than a nickel to one twelve. Three South Dakota turkey detections are a watch item, not a national disruption.

HOST: July beef exports were worth more than four hundred twenty-one dollars a fed head, up fourteen percent.

SHAWN: Fewer pounds. More value. Exclude China and the value is still higher. Washington can add hooks and lending. It cannot add cattle.

HOST: Short week. Noisy comparisons.

SHAWN: Labor Day didn't change the cattle supply. It changed the calendar. Protect the grind math. Watch whether Friday's pork rebound holds. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 8, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Labor Day is in the rearview mirror, and so is the last major grilling holiday of the summer.

HOST: That matters when you look at the grind complex.

SHAWN: Beef-cow slaughter is down roughly fourteen percent through August and total cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent, so domestic lean-beef supply has not suddenly become plentiful. Yet fresh nineties have backed off their summer highs while fifties have fallen to about a dollar. The calendar is changing the equation.

HOST: Peak summer grilling has done its job. Fall merchandising is a different pull on ground beef.

SHAWN: Add cheaper fat and potentially more imported lean, and the cost of the grind could look very different this fall even with cattle supplies historically tight. I'd quit watching nineties by themselves. Watch the blend—and watch the calendar.

HOST: Executive summary. Beef supplies remain tight, but the grind equation is changing. Pork margins are splitting between production and further processing. Chicken remains comparatively well supplied. July beef exports generated more than four hundred twenty-one dollars per fed head, up fourteen percent from last year.

SHAWN: The cattle supply hasn't loosened, but parts of the beef complex have. Choice finished Friday at three seventy-six a pound. Select strengthened to three fifty-six, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to roughly twenty cents. October live cattle closed two twelve ninety-five, down a dollar thirty-five. October feeders three twenty fifteen, down ninety-five cents.

HOST: The more interesting move is underneath the grind.

SHAWN: USDA put fresh ninety C L at four forty-nine, below its summer peak. Fresh fifty C L averaged just a dollar, after approaching one ninety in the second quarter. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three forty-one. That decline is not being driven by an abundance of cattle. The cutter cow cutout averaged three forty-six fifty-eight, down three fifty-eight for the week. Beef-cow slaughter through August is estimated at roughly one point three million head, down fourteen percent. Dairy-cow slaughter is about five percent higher. Total cattle slaughter through September fifth is near eighteen point four eight million head, down seven point five percent.

HOST: Beef-on-dairy is supplementing fed supplies, but those cattle are not all economically equal.

SHAWN: High-beef-merit crosses are putting more usable carcass pounds on similar live weights. In a tight cycle, head count tells you how many animals are available. Genetics help determine how many usable beef pounds those animals produce.

HOST: New World screwworm remains another supply variable.

SHAWN: Surveillance, sterile-fly releases, and producer-level prevention are in play. The commercial concern is cattle movement. Further spread could add another constraint to an already tight North American cattle system.

HOST: Chicken remains the comparatively stable protein entering fall.

SHAWN: The weekly whole-bird composite averaged one sixteen a pound, essentially unchanged. Boneless skinless breasts averaged one twenty-two. Drumsticks fifty-six cents. Bulk leg quarters fifty-three. Wings were the mover, falling more than five cents to one twelve. Young-chicken slaughter through September fifth is about six point six billion birds, up one point six percent, against cattle slaughter down seven point five.

HOST: HPAI is back on the watchlist. Three South Dakota commercial turkey detections, about one hundred forty-nine thousand birds.

SHAWN: That is not a national poultry-supply disruption. It does deserve attention as the industry moves into the higher-risk fall period.

HOST: Pork is increasingly a margin story, not a simple price story.

SHAWN: The weekly pork cutout averaged ninety-five cents, down about two cents. Loins ninety cents. Bellies a dollar forty-seven. Picnics sixty-six cents. Bellies were the biggest drag on the weekly primal, down nearly nine cents. Friday's daily market told a different story. The cutout closed ninety-two eighty-six, up a dollar seventy-four, as bellies rebounded. October lean hogs still finished eighty-two thirty, down a dollar fifteen.

HOST: Smithfield's first half shows the split.

SHAWN: North American pork operating profit increased nearly twelve percent to one hundred eighty-two million, helped by lower hog-raising costs and favorable hedging. Packaged-meats operating profit declined as higher meat costs and inflation pressured downstream margins. Better economics at the hog-production level do not automatically mean better economics for further processors.

HOST: Global watch. July beef exports held volume and lifted value.

SHAWN: Eighty-nine thousand one hundred thirty-nine metric tons, essentially unchanged. Value up six percent to seven hundred ninety-six point seven million. Export value exceeded four hundred twenty-one dollars per head of fed slaughter, up fourteen percent year over year. Through July, volume is down eight percent, value down two. Exclude China, and value is up six percent while volume is down only one. Fewer exported pounds do not necessarily mean less export demand.

HOST: July pork exports softened six percent on both volume and value. Year-to-date is still up.

SHAWN: Some of that July weakness reflected trade disruptions affecting pork variety meats, not simply weaker underlying demand.

HOST: Policy. Washington is looking harder at beef processing and competition.

SHAWN: More Packers and Stockyards investigations, more interstate access, technical help for smaller plants, and a guaranteed lending program for small and regional beef processing. Those can create opportunity. They do not create cattle. A processor still needs animals, labor, capital, throughput, and a home for the entire carcass. More hooks don't create more cattle.

HOST: Mandatory country-of-origin labeling has not been reinstated. The order is a review of existing authority. California is moving a voluntary non-ultra-processed certified designation. Prop Twelve already showed how state specs create a parallel pork supply chain with a different cost structure.

SHAWN: The buyer question is whether other state food standards eventually do the same thing.

HOST: Procurement radar. This is not a normal five-day week.

SHAWN: Labor Day shortened slaughter, delayed USDA releases, and compressed cash-cattle, procurement, and logistics windows. Treat holiday-affected comparisons accordingly. For beef, supply stays tight even as the grind adjusts to the post-Labor Day calendar. For pork, watch whether Friday's belly rebound carries. Chicken remains the best-supplied protein. Feed offered some Friday relief—corn, beans, and meal all lower—but one pre-holiday session is not a new feed-cost trend. Monday export inspections and Crop Progress move to Tuesday.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Labor Day didn't change the cattle supply. It changed the calendar. Beef enters fall with fewer cattle but a different grind equation. Pork has better upstream economics without equivalent relief for further processors. Chicken still carries the strongest production growth. The numbers this week will be noisy. Watch what survives the holiday distortion: cattle availability, grind economics, pork processing margins, and chicken supply. Watch the blend. Watch the calendar. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 8, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Host: Market desk

Analyst: Shawn

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September fourth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: One profitable week does not mean the beef business is fixed.

HOST: Packer margins improved. Cattle are still scarce. And Thursday showed why buyers should not get comfortable.

SHAWN: Sterling has packer margins at about one hundred forty-four dollars a head as utilization hit eighty-three point seven percent. Tyson still expects a six hundred twenty-five to seven hundred seventy-five million dollar Beef loss this fiscal year. Both can be true. Cutting capacity can help today’s processing math without fixing the cattle shortage.

HOST: Then the board and the physical market split.

SHAWN: October live cattle jumped four twelve to two fourteen thirty. Feeders gained six seventy-two to three twenty-one ten. But Choice slipped to about three seventy-seven, Select to three fifty-one, and fresh nineties to roughly four forty-three. Don’t chase the board when cash, boxed beef, and lean trim have not confirmed it.

HOST: Pork still has relative value. Margin is thin.

SHAWN: Packers made about three ninety a head. The cutout fell to ninety-one cents, crushed by bellies. Hog breakevens on new placements jumped to seventy-four eighty-eight. Brazil shipped more pork in July and made less money doing it. Being cheaper than beef is not the same as making money.

HOST: Chicken is the protein adding supply.

SHAWN: Slaughter is one point seven percent above last year. Breasts have been running about thirty percent cheaper than last summer. Buyers can find pounds. Processors still have to turn those pounds into margin.

HOST: Feed is back in the conversation. Meal made a new contract high.

SHAWN: October soybean meal closed three forty-eight sixty. A softer corn close does not mean feed got cheaper. Watch coverage, basis, and what you actually pay delivered.

HOST: Globally, Europe suspended affected Brazilian animal products. That is about one point eight billion in annual trade.

SHAWN: European beef is not extra U.S. nineties. Losing a premium outlet changes carcass math and where product competes. The U.S. is also opening three hundred thousand metric tons of lean-beef access. This is a flow story, not a new-supply story.

HOST: Bottom line heading into a short holiday week.

SHAWN: Cattle remain scarce. One better packer-margin week is not an all-clear. Protect coverage. Protect margin. Let the physical market confirm the board. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

Host: Market desk anchor

Analyst: Shawn (Managing Director commentary)

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your executive briefing on U.S. beef, pork, and chicken markets. This is the Closing Bell Friday edition for September 4, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: One profitable week does not mean the beef business is fixed.

HOST: That’s the line from Shawn’s Take this week. Packer margins improved, but cattle are still scarce. Thursday also delivered a sharp reminder of how quickly the equation can change.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates packer margins improved to about one hundred forty-four dollars a head last week as utilization climbed to eighty-three point seven percent. At the same time, Tyson now expects its Beef business to lose six hundred twenty-five to seven hundred seventy-five million dollars this fiscal year. Both can be true. Reduced capacity can improve today’s processing economics without fixing the cattle shortage that created the problem.

HOST: And Thursday showed why buyers shouldn’t get comfortable.

SHAWN: Cattle futures ripped higher while cash cattle, boxed beef, and lean trim moved lower. Soybean meal also reached a new contract high. Don’t chase the board when the physical beef market hasn’t confirmed it. And don’t mistake softer product for abundant supply.

HOST: Across all three proteins, the message is protect margin rather than bet on one market direction heading into a shortened holiday week.

Let’s start with beef.

SHAWN: Thursday exposed the disconnect between the board and the physical market. October live cattle jumped four dollars and twelve cents to two fourteen thirty. October feeders gained six seventy-two to three twenty-one ten. But Choice fell to about three seventy-seven a pound, Select to three fifty-one, steer live FOB over eighty percent Choice was around two eighteen, and fresh nineties declined to roughly four forty-three.

HOST: The weakness wasn’t just the headline cutout.

SHAWN: Choice strips dropped sharply and tenderloins moved lower, while seventy-three percent ground beef moved against the trend. That matters because processors had just started getting some breathing room. Feedlot margins were still estimated around minus two hundred thirty-five a head.

HOST: Tyson’s longer view is still grim.

SHAWN: The company is restructuring processing capacity around a smaller cattle supply. The procurement question is whether cattle costs move higher again before the product side can support them. Thursday’s futures rally says that risk is still very much alive.

HOST: Pork next. Relative value is there, but margin is thin.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates pork packers earned only three dollars and ninety cents a head for the week ended August twenty-ninth. Producers remained profitable at about forty-seven a head, but that was well below last year. Thursday didn’t help the processing side. The cutout fell about five cents to ninety-one cents a pound, driven heavily by bellies. The belly primal dropped more than thirty-two cents.

HOST: Feed is becoming more important to forward hog economics.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates the breakeven for hogs placed last week at seventy-four eighty-eight, compared with sixty-seven ninety-three for hogs marketed last week. And globally, Brazilian pork exports reached one hundred thirty-one thousand five hundred metric tons in July, up three point seven percent from last year. January through July shipments were up nine point one percent. More interestingly, July export revenue fell five point six percent despite the extra volume. Brazil is putting more pork into the global market, but more pounds are not automatically producing more value.

HOST: For U.S. pork, expensive beef still creates an opening. Capturing it will take more than simply being the cheaper protein.

Chicken remains the supply-growth protein.

SHAWN: U.S. chicken slaughter is running one point seven percent above last year year-to-date. Summer production is estimated about two point two percent above twenty twenty-five, and full-year production up two point nine. Those additional pounds have coincided with significant price pressure. Wholesale breast values have been running roughly thirty percent below last summer, and Tyson cited softer foodservice demand as it lowered its Chicken operating-income outlook.

HOST: USDA described Thursday’s broiler market as mostly steady, with moderate supplies and mostly fair demand. Tenders were improving, dark meat continued clearing well.

SHAWN: For buyers, chicken remains the protein with the clearest supply availability. For processors, the challenge is turning those pounds into enough value to protect margin.

HOST: Feed moved back to the front of the conversation.

SHAWN: December corn finished Thursday at five forty and three-quarters, down two and three-quarters cents, but recovered from overnight weakness. November soybeans reversed higher to thirteen sixteen and a quarter. The bigger protein-cost development was soybean meal. October meal gained five seventy to three forty-eight sixty and reached a new contract high. A slightly lower corn close does not mean feed costs uniformly improved.

HOST: The shortened week ahead also compresses purchasing, logistics, and delivery windows.

SHAWN: Buyers need to look beyond Thursday’s corn close and pay attention to coverage, basis, and actual delivered feed economics.

HOST: On the global side, Brazil suddenly has two very different protein stories.

SHAWN: The European Union suspended imports of affected Brazilian animal products effective September third under its antimicrobial-compliance rules. The action affects roughly one point eight billion dollars of annual Brazilian trade, including about one point zero five billion of beef and seven hundred sixty-three million of chicken.

HOST: Europe is an important premium market for higher-value Brazilian cuts.

SHAWN: Those products are not interchangeable with the lean processing beef U.S. buyers need. European-bound beef should not simply be treated as additional U.S. nineties. But losing a premium outlet can change carcass economics, export incentives, and where other Brazilian beef ultimately competes. The timing matters because the U.S. is simultaneously opening additional access for three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef, with Brazil positioned as a potential supplier.

HOST: Chicken faces a similar trade-flow question if European access stays closed.

SHAWN: This isn’t about creating more global protein. It’s about changing where the protein flows, and what each market is willing to pay for it. New World screwworm remains another cattle-supply variable. Mexico continues containment and surveillance. Mexican feeder cattle could supplement tight U.S. feeder supplies, but animal health remains the gatekeeper.

HOST: Policy is trying to address tight beef supplies on three different timelines.

SHAWN: Heifer retention and herd rebuilding address long-term domestic cattle availability. The additional three hundred thousand metric ton lean-beef TRQ can affect processing-beef availability much sooner. Processing investment is the third lever. Capital can reopen a plant. It cannot create the cattle needed to run it economically.

HOST: Executive bottom line.

SHAWN: Cattle remain scarce. The physical beef market weakened Thursday, and futures just put cattle costs back on notice. One improved beef-packer margin week is not an all-clear. Pork continues to offer relative value, but packer margins remain thin while global pork supply keeps expanding. Chicken has the clearest supply availability, but those additional pounds continue pressuring value. Feed deserves a seat at the table again. Meal reached a new contract high, and energy remains expensive enough to matter for freight and refrigerated logistics.

HOST: Monday’s holiday will shorten slaughter, trading, USDA reporting, and procurement schedules.

SHAWN: Cash cattle timing, showlists, and delivery windows can shift. Next week’s week-over-week comparisons should not be treated like a normal operating week. For procurement teams, this is not a week to chase one headline or one futures move. Stay disciplined on coverage, protect margin, and let the physical market confirm the board.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell for September 4, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.