HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September sixteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Having protein is not the same as having demand. Consumers are still buying. They are being more selective. Convenience, flavor, value. If the product does not give them a reason, they move on. Somebody still has to want the product. That is where the margin fight starts.

HOST: More cattle on feed does not mean more cattle becoming available.

SHAWN: Inventories may print one point eight percent above last year. Almost three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up eighteen point seven percent. That can make the report look comfortable without improving near-term availability. Year-to-date slaughter is still down seven point six percent. Choice closed three seventy-six. Futures sold off.

HOST: The quota is open. About fifteen thousand tons of the September tranche had cleared last week.

SHAWN: Three hundred thousand tons of access is not three hundred thousand tons arriving. South American nineties indicated around three oh eight to three fifteen East Coast. Domestic last established four thirty-five. Watch arrival, not the headline.

HOST: Pork cutout fell to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped almost eleven cents. Chicken still has the pounds. Meal jumped almost ten dollars. Crude one oh five.

SHAWN: Pork has supply. It needs reasons to consume it. Chicken remains the value story. Wisconsin added an HPAI detection — watch it, don’t over-read it. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure and the consumer decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: I keep coming back to one thing this week: having protein is not the same as having demand. Holly Poultry is adding capacity around fresh, convenient, value-added chicken. Hardee’s is putting bacon everywhere it can. Japan grew pork consumption by giving consumers more ways to use the product. Meanwhile, Ruiz Foods is cutting production to better match what customers are actually buying. That tells me something. Consumers are still buying protein, but they are being more selective. Convenience matters. Flavor matters. Value matters. And if the product does not give them a reason to buy it, they will move on. We spend a lot of time talking about pounds, production, and supply. But somebody still has to want the product. That is where the real fight for margin starts.

HOST: Beef remains tight, but the composition of supply matters more than the headline on-feed number. Imported lean is cheaper, yet actual flow remains slower than the expanded quota suggests. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken remains comparatively balanced. Higher energy and feed costs are adding another layer of margin risk across the complex.

SHAWN: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report needs to be read beyond the headline inventory number. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect September first feedlot inventories one point eight percent above last year. The age of those cattle tells a more important story. The Daily Livestock Report estimates nearly three point six million head have been on feed more than one hundred fifty days — up five hundred sixty-seven thousand head, or eighteen point seven percent year over year. Placements expected at ninety-six point eight percent of last year. Marketings ninety-six point one. Feedlots are getting more pounds from cattle already in the system. That can make total inventory look more comfortable without materially improving near-term cattle availability.

HOST: The physical market still reflects the constraint. USDA closed Tuesday with Choice three seventy-six oh eight. Select three fifty-six thirty-six. Spread nineteen seventy-two cents. October live cattle two twenty seventy, down a dollar fifty-five. October feeders three thirty-three eighty-five, down four dollars. Tuesday slaughter one hundred eight thousand. Year-to-date nineteen point one nine five million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: The rebuilding problem has not disappeared. High cattle values make retention attractive in theory, but they also make heifers valuable to sell today. Add drought, grass, water, and land constraints, and expansion remains difficult. Fertilizer belongs in that discussion too. If higher fertilizer costs reduce pasture inputs, they could limit productivity and carrying capacity.

HOST: The quota is open. The product is still slow to show.

SHAWN: S and P Global reported only about fifteen thousand metric tons of the September tranche had cleared as of last week. That raises questions about whether the first monthly tranche will be fully utilized. The temporary program permits an additional three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef trimmings in three thirty-day tranches capped at one hundred thousand each, through November thirtieth. S and P Global Energy CERA estimates actual South American volume during the full three-month window could be materially below the headline allowance because cattle remain expensive and plant activity has not increased enough to support that kind of export surge.

HOST: Economics still matter. South American ninety C L indications around three oh eight to three fifteen F C A East Coast, versus roughly three thirty-seven to three forty-two for Australia-New Zealand cow nineties. Domestic lean remains much higher. Tuesday did not establish a new fresh ninety. Last established USDA value four thirty-five twenty-seven. Fresh eighty-fives did establish at three sixty oh ninety-seven. Brazil and other eligible suppliers can take share from Australia and New Zealand without the United States ever receiving the full three hundred thousand tons. Price, eligibility, shipment timing, and physical arrival all have to line up.

SHAWN: Chicken continues to offer the cleanest supply position. USDA called Tuesday mostly steady, dark meat well supported, wing demand fair and somewhat lackluster. Year-to-date slaughter about six point eight two three billion birds, up one point two percent. Wisconsin confirmed HPAI in a commercial flock in Barron County. Flock size and species were not disclosed, so there is not enough information yet to assign a meaningful national production impact. Holly Poultry’s new eighty-thousand-square-foot Maryland facility may tell us more than another production statistic. The investment is aimed at fresh retail, private label, and value-added chicken built around convenience. Supply is available. Capital is still chasing the products consumers want to use.

HOST: Pork had the weakest physical-market move Tuesday. Afternoon cutout fell two twenty-eight cents to eighty-seven fifty. Bellies dropped ten ninety-six cents to eighty-nine sixty-seven. Hams moved against the broader decline. Forty-twos seventy-four fifty-one. Seventy-twos ninety-three sixty-five. Negotiated hogs weakened. Tuesday slaughter four hundred eighty-eight thousand. Year-to-date hog slaughter only one percent below last year.

SHAWN: Japan did not build pork consumption simply by producing more pork. It developed products consumers wanted to eat. Tonkatsu created another outlet for loins. Beef-pork blended patties broadened ground applications. Export markets helped create value across the carcass. Hardee’s Bacon Beast platform is a smaller domestic version of the same idea: bacon across breakfast, beef, and chicken gives one raw material multiple reasons to be on the menu. Pork has supply. The challenge is creating enough reasons to consume it.

HOST: Policy. Authorization and utilization are two different things. The numbers that matter now are how much product actually clears, which origins gain share, and whether imported lean keeps enough of a discount to domestic product to keep moving. The proposed federal settlement with Agri Stats would restrict the timeliness and granularity of nonpublic chicken, pork, and turkey processor information. Reported statistics generally at least forty-five days old on average. Data reflecting production decisions at least ninety days old. Less timely company-level competitive intelligence.

SHAWN: Feed. The board moved higher Tuesday. December corn five thirty-five and three-quarters, up two and a half cents. November soybeans thirteen eighteen and three-quarters, up fourteen and a half. October meal three sixty ten, up nine ninety. A nearly ten-dollar meal move matters directly to pork and chicken, and it matters if higher feed costs change how long cattle stay on feed. October crude one oh five eighty-three, up four forty-four. When grain, meal, and energy strengthen together, the protein cost structure changes quickly. Fertilizer is the forward piece. Retail fertilizer does not have to be sharply higher today for sulfur, phosphate, and nitrogen pressures to become a twenty twenty-seven feed-production problem.

HOST: Radar. Fresh nineties did not establish Tuesday. Imported alternatives remain cheaper. Do not confuse quota capacity with physical inventory. Crude above one oh five and diesel above six flow into livestock movement, refrigerated freight, and delivered cost. Bellies after an almost eleven-cent drop deserve attention. Foodservice bacon activity is encouraging. The wholesale tape remains weak.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef remains a supply story. Pork is increasingly a demand story. Chicken remains the value and availability story. What is changing underneath all three is cost. Energy is higher. Meal jumped. Fertilizer risk is building. Imported beef can help the grind, but only if the product actually arrives. The protein price gets the attention. The cost structure — and the consumer — decide the margin. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 16, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September fifteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: The cutout didn’t do much Monday. The grind did.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Both sides of the blend got cheaper. Packers are making about eighty to one hundred ten a head — fourth profitable week. Cattle slaughter is still down seven point six percent year-to-date. The supply didn’t improve. The economics did. Wholesale relief is not automatically cheaper hamburger at retail.

HOST: Pork’s number is demand. August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent.

SHAWN: That weakness is estimated at about fifteen dollars a head. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand. Bellies dropped another ten cents to a dollar oh six. Chicken production is up. Breasts more than twenty-six percent cheaper than last year. Minnesota added HPAI detections. Watch the birds. Don’t call it a supply problem today.

HOST: Quota headline is three hundred thousand tons. USDA only raised the import forecast one hundred thirty million pounds. Fed decision Wednesday. Crude is one oh one.

SHAWN: Watch the offers, not the quota. Cheaper protein does less when it costs more to finance and move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Consumers aren’t walking away from protein. They’re trading around it. Beef is still expensive at retail, but the grind is getting cheaper. Pork has tightened production and still can’t get enough demand underneath it. Chicken keeps putting affordable pounds in front of the consumer. When the price gap gets wide enough, somebody loses an occasion. Beef can lose one to chicken. Pork can be cheap and still not win it. Retailers can get relief at wholesale and keep some of it before the consumer ever sees it. The consumer still wants protein. They just don’t have to buy the same one every week. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins.

HOST: Fresh beef trim gave grinders more room Monday. Nineties around four thirty-five. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. Packer margins are positive again, so processors have more incentive to run cattle even while year-to-date slaughter remains down seven point six percent. Pork’s issue is clearer: August wholesale demand was down seventeen point three percent year over year. Chicken keeps the relative-value advantage, though new HPAI cases across the Upper Midwest put animal-health risk back in the conversation. Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announces its September rate decision. A quarter-point increase is widely expected.

SHAWN: The cutout did not do much Monday. The grind did. Fresh ninety C L finished around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three fifty-two. Fifties below eighty-nine cents. On the weekly averages, nineties fell two point eight percent and fifties nearly seven. For grinders, both sides of the blend got cheaper at the same time. That is a bigger development than another small move in Choice.

HOST: Packers have a reason to run again. Hales estimates calculated margins around plus eighty to plus one hundred ten a head — a fourth consecutive profitable week. Monday slaughter returned to one hundred six thousand after last week totaled five hundred five thousand. The cattle supply did not suddenly improve. USDA still shows slaughter seven point six percent below last year year-to-date. The economics improved.

SHAWN: Mexican cattle are moving again through the Douglas, Arizona port of entry. Current volume remains modest — roughly five hundred eighty to eight hundred fifty head a day presented for inspection. Some of the early cattle are reportedly seven hundred to nine hundred pounds, heavier than the traditional Mexican calf flow. The larger event would be Santa Teresa, New Mexico. That crossing historically handled far more volume. USDA has not confirmed a reopening date.

HOST: Retail is moving more slowly than wholesale. Beef and veal prices fell one percent in August, the second straight monthly decline, but remain five point nine percent above last year. Ground beef was essentially unchanged for the month. Wholesale relief does not automatically become consumer relief. Retailers have room to rebuild margin before every penny gets passed through the meat case.

SHAWN: Pork finally has a number that explains a lot. Wholesale pork demand in August was seventeen point three percent below August twenty twenty-five. The demand index fell from seventy-seven ninety-seven to sixty-four forty-nine. That weakness is estimated to have reduced market hog prices by roughly seven point five percent, or about fifteen twenty-four a head. And August was not a one-off. Wholesale pork demand averaged six point seven percent below last year from January through August.

HOST: Monday’s cutout finished almost unchanged at eighty-nine seventy-eight cents. Underneath it, the carcass was not quiet. Loins gained three thirty-nine cents. Butts added two forty-six. Picnics jumped five seventy-nine. Bellies dropped another ten thirty-three cents to a dollar oh six. On the weekly averages, bellies were down nearly eighteen percent, while hams gained more than eight and fresh seventy-twos increased seven point five. That creates opportunity between primals and raw materials. You can kill fewer hogs. That doesn’t fix demand.

SHAWN: Chicken still has the price advantage. Weekly production reached eight hundred sixty-two point one million pounds, up four point one percent from last year, with year-to-date production running two point two percent higher. Boneless skinless breast values remain more than twenty-six percent below last year. USDA called the market mostly steady — whole birds steady, breast meat at least a steady undertone, wings about steady, dark meat active. Meat-department pounds grew two percent in twenty twenty-five. Millennials and Gen Z accounted for sixty-seven percent of meat unit growth. That matters when chicken can put a materially cheaper meal in front of the consumer.

HOST: The developing risk is HPAI. Minnesota added two commercial detections totaling sixty-two thousand three hundred birds — forty-four thousand three hundred meat turkeys and eighteen thousand breeder birds. Recent commercial cases also in South Dakota, North Dakota, and Manitoba. That is not a chicken supply problem today. With fall migration building, poultry health is back on the radar. Chicken has the pounds. Chicken has the price. Now watch the birds.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton temporary lean-beef quota is a large headline. USDA’s actual import forecast increase is much smaller. The Daily Livestock Report estimates the additional quota represents roughly nine hundred million pounds carcass weight, yet USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds in September. USDA now projects six point two six two billion pounds of beef imports in twenty twenty-six, up sixteen point two percent year over year, while domestic beef production is forecast down four point three percent. Brazil has every reason to look harder at the U.S. market. Paraguay has opportunity as well. Buyers will know whether the quota is changing the lean market before the final import statistics arrive. Watch the offers, not the quota headline.

HOST: The Federal Reserve announces Wednesday at two p.m. Eastern. A Reuters poll Monday found eighty-five percent of economists expecting a twenty-five-basis-point increase. Higher rates increase the cost of carrying inventory, financing working capital, and holding forward positions. October crude is already one oh one thirty-nine. December corn five thirty-three and a quarter. November soybeans thirteen oh four and a quarter. October meal three fifty twenty a ton. Cheaper protein does less for you when it costs more to finance it and move it.

SHAWN: Radar. Beef grind improving — nineties and fifties both lower. Pork demand high risk — August wholesale demand down seventeen point three percent. Chicken still has the value advantage. Imported lean is an opportunity if Brazilian and South American forward nineties actually book. Douglas is moving cattle. Santa Teresa would bring substantially more volume. Crude above one hundred with the Fed on Wednesday.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-five. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Fifties eighty-eight cents. Pork cutout ninety cents. Bellies a dollar oh six. October live cattle two twenty-two twenty-five. Feeders three thirty-seven eighty-five. Lean hogs seventy-nine sixty.

SHAWN: Bottom line. Beef grind is getting cheaper even though cattle remain tight. Pork has less of a supply problem than a demand problem. Chicken still owns the relative-value argument. Imported lean and Mexican cattle are giving buyers more options around the edges, while energy and financing costs are pushing the other way. The consumer is still buying protein. They’re just choosing between them. People don’t quit protein. They trade proteins. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 15, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September fourteenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline built to bypass Hormuz. Diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed, and every truck from plant to customer. Harvest is running on diesel too. We've spent a lot of time on the price of protein. This week, watch the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Grind math improved. Cattle profits moved. They didn't disappear.

SHAWN: Fresh nineties finished four thirty-seven. Fifties ninety-three cents. Sterling has packers around plus one sixty-nine and feedlots about minus three twenty-nine. Cow-calf still looks strong. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point six percent. Retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August while wholesale coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from June. Cheaper inputs and cheaper hamburger are not the same thing.

HOST: Pork broke again on bellies. Chicken still has the extra birds. HPAI is a watch item, not a supply reversal.

SHAWN: Weekly pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies down more than twenty-six cents. Brazil shipped more pork in August for less money. Chicken slaughter is up one point three percent. Cases in the northern Plains and Manitoba are a risk to that advantage—not proof it's gone. USDA only added one hundred thirty million pounds to the twenty twenty-six import forecast against a three-hundred-thousand-ton window. Watch utilization and landed lean, not the headline. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Oil jumped above one hundred three this morning after attacks shut the Saudi pipeline designed to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel futures moved above five dollars. That's not an energy story sitting off to the side of the protein market. That's freight, refrigeration, packaging, feed inputs, and every truck moving product from a plant to a customer. Take it one step further back. Harvest is underway across the Corn Belt. Diesel runs the equipment harvesting corn and soybeans and the trucks moving those bushels. Those crops still have to be processed into feed and moved again before an animal ever reaches a plant. We've spent a lot of time talking about the price of protein. This week, I'd pay just as much attention to the cost of producing and moving it.

HOST: Energy moved sharply higher Monday morning after another disruption to Middle East oil infrastructure. Beef buyers have some relief in the grind. Fresh ninety C L finished the week at four thirty-seven. Fifties at ninety-three cents. Imported lean remains competitive. The cattle margin keeps shifting: packers positive, feedlots deeply negative, cow-calf returns still strong. Pork weakened again, led by a sharp break in bellies. Chicken still has the clearest supply cushion, though HPAI across the northern Plains and Manitoba deserves attention.

SHAWN: Friday's boxed beef: Choice three seventy-five ninety-four, down two forty-three cents. Select three fifty-three thirteen, up a cent. The spread narrowed to twenty-two eighty-one cents. USDA established fresh nineties at four thirty-six seventy-four on one point five one million pounds. Eighty-fives three sixty-eight eighty-seven. Fifties ninety-three oh four on more than two point one seven million pounds. That puts the ninety-fifty spread at three forty-three seventy. With fifties below a dollar, the fat side is becoming increasingly important to grind economics.

HOST: Imported lean adds another variable. Brazilian nineties still compete at a significant discount. Landed values and actual September arrivals matter more to fall blend math.

SHAWN: The cattle margin has shifted. Sterling estimates packers around plus one hundred sixty-nine a head. Feedlot margins have deteriorated to about minus three hundred twenty-nine, with breakevens at two forty-two fifty-two. CattleFax estimates cited by Drovers put cow-calf returns near plus fourteen hundred a head on their annual cost methodology. Those series aren't directly comparable. The direction is clear. Profits haven't disappeared from beef. They have moved. The pressure today is sitting in the feedlot.

HOST: Cash last week: North mostly two eighteen to two nineteen. South two twenty-two to two twenty-three. Year-to-date cattle slaughter eighteen point nine eight four million head, down seven point six percent.

SHAWN: There is also a disconnect between wholesale and retail ground beef. Average retail ground beef hit a record seven sixteen in August, up seven point nine percent year over year, even though wholesale eighty-one C L coarse ground had already fallen sixteen percent from its June peak. Steiner expects more seasonal pressure on wholesale values in September and October, and notes retailers may use some of that decline to rebuild margins. Cheaper inputs and cheaper retail hamburger aren't necessarily the same thing.

HOST: Chicken. Whole bird one sixteen oh eight, down a third of a cent. Breasts one twenty-one thirty-five. Wings one ten oh two, down another two thirty-five cents. Year-to-date slaughter about six point seven five seven billion birds, up one point three percent, against cattle down seven point six and hogs down one percent.

SHAWN: HPAI deserves renewed attention, not an overreaction. Commercial cases in South Dakota, Minnesota, and North Dakota. Canada confirmed a commercial case in Manitoba after nearly four months without a new commercial-flock infection. HPAI is a risk to chicken's supply advantage—not evidence that the advantage has disappeared.

HOST: Pork weakened again. Weekly cutout ninety-one seventy-seven, down three twenty-six cents. Loins eighty-eight sixty-five. Picnics sixty-seven oh nine. Bellies a dollar twenty-one, down twenty-six twenty-seven cents. Forty-twos eighty-five seventy-six. Seventy-twos eighty-eight eighty-five. Negotiated hogs eighty-five thirty-eight, down a dollar forty-eight. Year-to-date hog slaughter eighty-seven point two two zero million, down one percent.

SHAWN: Brazil exported about one hundred thirty-one thousand metric tons of pork in August, up eight percent year over year, while export revenue declined about two percent. More product moved at less value. The global pork market keeps diversifying away from post-A S F dependence on China. Mexico and Southeast Asia matter more. Brazil is competing hard for those customers. Lower projected production hasn't translated into stronger product values. Demand remains the issue.

HOST: Global energy. Attacks forced the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which had been moving roughly four million barrels a day toward Red Sea terminals as an alternative around the disrupted Strait of Hormuz. Exports can temporarily continue from storage at Yanbu. There is no firm repair timeline. Shipping risk remains elevated around Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor. Monday morning W T I traded above one hundred three. Diesel futures above five dollars a gallon. Extended disruption raises fuel and freight exposure across domestic and imported protein supply chains.

SHAWN: Policy. USDA increased its twenty twenty-six beef-import forecast by only one hundred thirty million pounds after the additional three hundred thousand metric tons of temporary in-quota lean access through November. Some early September clearances were Brazilian beef already in bonded warehouses. Normal shipping lead times limit how much newly produced beef can reach the U.S. during the temporary window. Brazil still has strong incentive to move product. China's safeguard has constrained volume there. New European restrictions have complicated another premium outlet. The next useful information isn't another quota headline. It's weekly utilization, Brazilian offers, and landed lean values against domestic nineties.

HOST: Procurement radar. Duration of the Saudi pipeline outage and the response in diesel, trucking, and ocean freight. Imported nineties landed against domestic four thirty-six seventy-four. Cash leverage after last week's North-South split. Slaughter response with packers back in the black. Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Corn stocks-to-use remains tight after WASDE despite Friday's grain selloff. Soybean supply is more comfortable. Watch HPAI case progression as fall migration develops.

SHAWN: Friday futures close. October live cattle two nineteen sixty-seven, up a dollar eighty-five. Feeders three thirty-two fifty, up four ninety-five. Lean hogs eighty-one fifty-two, down a dollar sixty-two. December corn five thirty and a quarter. November soybeans twelve ninety-six and a half, down thirty-five and three-quarters cents. October meal three forty-six eighty. W T I Friday close one hundred oh five, down two forty-three—before this morning's jump.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Beef grind inputs are moving in the buyer's direction. Domestic nineties at four thirty-seven. Fifties below a dollar. The cattle margin has shifted again—packers positive, feedlots absorbing expensive cattle. Pork remains under pressure despite slightly lower slaughter. Chicken still carries the strongest supply position. Friday's grain selloff made feed look easier than the underlying corn balance sheet suggests. Energy added another layer of cost risk over the weekend. Harvest, feed manufacturing, trucking, refrigeration, and global protein trade all become more expensive if diesel stays elevated. The protein markets are providing some relief in places. The cost structure isn't. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Monday Market Open for September 14, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Special Report | September 11, 2026

The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Special Report, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. It took another piece of the cushion away. Corn yield fell two point two bushels to one seventy-eight point five. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million. The farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty.

HOST: Soybeans made more crop. Meal still went higher.

SHAWN: Production rose to four point five three five billion bushels. Stronger exports pulled stocks to three hundred ten million. Soybeans to twelve dollars. Meal up thirty dollars to three hundred forty a short ton. That is the number poultry and pork cannot overlook. Feed is no longer getting cheaper by default.

HOST: Protein side. Beef production down. Imports up. Chicken still adding pounds.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef ninety million pounds and raised imports one hundred thirty million on stronger South American shipments. The quota does not create cattle. It creates another source of lean. Pork production and exports were both trimmed. Chicken twenty twenty-six is still nearly one point six billion pounds above last year — now against a firmer feed outlook.

HOST: The crop is still big.

SHAWN: The cushion is getting smaller. Watch harvest versus one seventy-eight point five. Watch whether three point two seven five billion corn exports hold. Watch meal at three forty. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is a Special Report for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group. USDA cut corn yield, production, and ending stocks — and raised feed-cost expectations.

SHAWN: USDA didn’t create a feed shortage today. But it took another meaningful piece of the cushion away. Corn yield dropped two point two bushels. Production lost two hundred thirteen million bushels. Ending stocks fell another eighty-six million, and USDA added thirty cents to the farm-price forecast. Soybeans produced more, but stronger exports absorbed the increase. Ending stocks moved lower, soybeans went up sixty cents, and soybean meal jumped thirty dollars a short ton. For protein producers, that is the part of this report I would not overlook. Beef supply is still tight. Chicken is still adding pounds. Pork remains comparatively balanced. But the feed side of the equation is no longer getting cheaper by default. The crop is still big. The cushion is not as big as it was.

HOST: September tightened the feed outlook again.

SHAWN: USDA cut corn yield from one hundred eighty point seven to one hundred seventy-eight point five bushels an acre. Production fell two hundred thirteen million bushels to fifteen point eight hundred billion. Ending stocks dropped eighty-six million bushels to one point five six seven billion. The season-average farm-price forecast rose thirty cents to four eighty. Exports stayed at three point two seven five billion bushels. Soybean production increased slightly to four point five three five billion, but stronger exports pulled ending stocks down to three hundred ten million bushels. USDA raised soybeans to twelve dollars and soybean meal to three hundred forty dollars a short ton. On the protein side, USDA lowered beef and pork production, raised expected twenty twenty-six beef imports on stronger South American shipments, and increased the twenty twenty-seven broiler-production outlook.

HOST: Corn is the headline. Big crop. Smaller cushion.

SHAWN: Harvested acreage slipped from eighty-eight point six to eighty-eight point five million acres. Beginning stocks were cut from one point nine four five billion to one point nine two two billion. USDA left ethanol use unchanged at five point six billion and cut feed and residual from six point one hundred billion to five point nine five zero billion. Even with lower feed use, carryout still fell eighty-six million bushels. This is still a large crop. The balance sheet has less room in it. USDA maintained strong export demand, reduced feed use, and still took more out of stocks. For livestock and poultry producers, the feed outlook is less forgiving than it looked earlier this summer.

HOST: Soybeans tightened for a different reason.

SHAWN: Production rose from four point five one nine billion to four point five three five billion. Yield ticked up to fifty-two point eight. Harvested area eighty-five point nine million acres. Exports were raised from one point six six zero billion to one point six eight five billion. That pushed ending stocks from three hundred twenty million to three hundred ten million. Crush stayed at two point seven eight zero billion. More beans did not translate into cheaper protein feed. For poultry and pork margins, the thirty-dollar-per-short-ton meal increase is the number that matters most.

HOST: Wheat. U.S. balance sheet essentially unchanged.

SHAWN: Production remains one point five three one billion bushels. Exports seven hundred seventy-five million. Ending stocks seven hundred seventeen million. USDA raised the farm price from six twenty to six forty. Globally, wheat moved the other direction from corn. Production increased to eight hundred twenty-two point four three million metric tons and ending stocks to two hundred seventy-six point two nine, helped by larger crops in Australia, Canada, and Ukraine. Wheat is not the major feed story this month. But the higher U.S. price forecast reinforces the point: September was not a more bearish feed report.

HOST: Global corn tightened with the U.S. sheet.

SHAWN: World production fell from one thousand two hundred ninety-eight point eight eight million metric tons to one thousand two hundred ninety point nine five. World ending stocks from two hundred seventy-four point six six to two hundred seventy-two point one zero. Brazilian production stayed at one hundred thirty-nine million metric tons, but exports were cut from forty-four to forty-three as more corn stays home. Russia’s crop was also reduced. September removed corn supply cushion both domestically and globally.

HOST: Beef. Production lower. Imports higher.

SHAWN: USDA cut twenty twenty-six beef production from twenty-five point zero three five billion pounds to twenty-four point nine four five billion — ninety million pounds lower than August. Twenty twenty-seven production was cut from twenty-five point zero four eight billion to twenty-four point nine zero three billion. Twenty twenty-six beef imports rose from six point one three two billion pounds to six point two six two billion — up one hundred thirty million pounds. USDA cited stronger expected shipments from South America while the expanded quota allows qualifying beef to enter at reduced tariffs through November. The cattle-supply problem has not changed. The sourcing equation has. More imported lean can affect grind economics even while domestic beef production remains constrained.

HOST: Chicken still owns the supply-growth advantage.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six broiler production was left essentially unchanged at forty-nine point zero nine zero billion pounds — still nearly one point six billion pounds above twenty twenty-five. For twenty twenty-seven, USDA raised production from forty-nine point three six six billion to forty-nine point four six five billion. Per-capita disappearance is projected at one hundred six point eight pounds in twenty twenty-six and one hundred seven point seven in twenty twenty-seven. Those additional pounds are now being produced against a somewhat firmer feed-cost outlook.

HOST: Pork. Supply trimmed. Exports softer.

SHAWN: Twenty twenty-six pork production fell from twenty-seven point eight nine two billion pounds to twenty-seven point seven eight seven billion. Exports were cut from seven point one seven five billion to seven point one one zero billion. For twenty twenty-seven, production fell to twenty-eight point zero eight six billion and exports to seven point one nine zero billion. This remains a different setup from beef. USDA removed production and also reduced export demand. That keeps pork comparatively balanced domestically while putting more attention on feed costs and margins.

HOST: The quota is now in the balance sheet.

SHAWN: Expanded quota, stronger South American shipments, higher U.S. beef imports, more lean available to the grind complex. The quota does not create cattle. It does create another source of lean.

HOST: What I’m watching. Does one hundred seventy-eight point five corn yield hold. USDA kept corn exports at three point two seven five billion despite the smaller crop. Soybean meal at three hundred forty changes the margin conversation. South American beef arrivals — USDA has now raised the official import forecast. Firmer feed expectations matter most to chicken and pork. And USDA lowered cattle-price expectations even while reducing beef production.

SHAWN: Bottom line. September did not create a feed shortage. It reduced the cushion. USDA removed two hundred thirteen million bushels of corn production, cut ending stocks another eighty-six million, and raised the corn-price forecast thirty cents. Soybean production increased, but stronger exports reduced stocks and pushed meal thirty dollars a short ton higher. For protein producers, the feed backdrop is no longer automatically getting cheaper. Beef remains tight. Imports become more relevant. Pork stays comparatively balanced. Chicken keeps adding pounds. The crop is still big. The cushion is getting smaller. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Special Report for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September eleventh. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning I was in Oklahoma City. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Today I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that — the week. Packer margins turned positive. Feedlots went deeper in the red.

SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one hundred sixty-nine a head and unhedged feedlots at minus three twenty-nine. A year ago feedlots were making more than seven hundred. Asking prices this morning were two twenty-five live and higher. One profitable packer week does not fix the cattle problem.

HOST: Grind math improved. Fifties fell to about ninety-one cents. Domestic nineties around four thirty-five. Imported lean still near three oh five.

SHAWN: Watch the blend. The tariff-free window is three hundred thousand metric tons. S and P thinks Brazil and Paraguay may only ship thirty-five to forty thousand a month. The window is real. The assumption that all of it shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Pork is squeezed on both sides. Chicken still has the extra pounds. Crude closed above one hundred two.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork and Hog Production losses in the third quarter. July pork stayed home. Recheck landed cost. A raw-material opening can disappear before the load reaches the plant. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Twenty-five years ago this morning, I was in Oklahoma City working as a commodity and futures broker and hedging specialist. I remember exactly where I was when September 11 began to unfold. I remember watching it happen and realizing very quickly that whatever we thought that Tuesday was going to be about no longer mattered. Some days fade with time. That one never has. Twenty-five years later, I still think about the people who went to work that morning and never came home, the first responders who ran toward danger, and the families who have carried that loss every day since. Today, I simply remember. September 11, 2001. Never forget.

HOST: After that remembrance — the week. The shortened post-Labor Day tape ended with margin pressure shifting rather than disappearing.

SHAWN: Beef packers regained weekly profitability while feedlots moved deeper into the red. Pork margins compressed across both production and processing. Chicken remains the major protein with growing supply. Imported lean continues to trade well below domestic, although physical availability may limit how quickly the new tariff-free window is filled. Crude’s move above one hundred dollars added another layer of cost across freight, processing, and distribution.

HOST: Beef. The margin moved.

SHAWN: Sterling’s Beef Profit Tracker has estimated packer margin at plus one hundred sixty-nine twenty-two a head. Unhedged feedlot margin deteriorated to minus three hundred twenty-eight seventy-five. The breakeven on cattle marketed last week climbed to two forty-two fifty-two against five-area Choice steers averaging two nineteen oh four. A year ago, feedlots were making more than seven hundred a head. One profitable week does not mean the packing problem is solved.

HOST: Cattle sellers were pushing back Friday morning.

SHAWN: Asking prices moved to two twenty-five and higher live, with a small northern dressed trade reported at three fifty-five. Packers are buying for a full upcoming week, but feeders have little incentive to keep surrendering margin now that their own economics have turned sharply negative. Choice was around three seventy-eight. Select held near three fifty-two.

HOST: The more interesting move may be in the grind.

SHAWN: Domestic fresh nineties were around four thirty-five. Eighty-fives around three seventy-nine. Fresh fifties fell to roughly ninety-one cents. USDA characterized beef trimmings as mostly sharply lower on light demand and heavy offerings. That changes the equation even if domestic lean remains expensive. The ninety is only half the story. Watch the blend.

HOST: Chicken. Supply remains the difference.

SHAWN: Year-to-date chicken slaughter is up one point two percent. Cumulative broiler chick placements remain about two percent ahead of twenty twenty-five. USDA describes whole birds as steady with adequate supplies, breast meat at least steady, fair wing demand, and firm dark meat. Export markets were active. Twenty-seven members of Congress are pressing U S T R over remaining China poultry restrictions, arguing lost access is costing U.S. producers more than eight hundred million dollars a year. The pounds are there. Export access will help determine where they clear.

HOST: Pork. Both sides are getting squeezed.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates farrow-to-finish at forty-three forty-six a head, down from forty-six eighty-eight last week and seventy-six sixty-eight a year ago. Packer margin narrowed to two seventeen a head. Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar third-quarter operating loss in Fresh Pork, with Hog Production projected to lose another twenty-five to forty-five million. The cutout was around ninety-two cents, with bellies taking another significant step lower.

HOST: Demand is part of it.

SHAWN: July U.S. pork exports fell to five hundred twenty-eight point seven million pounds, down four point six percent year over year and almost one hundred fifty million pounds below the March peak. After production, exports, and imports, Steiner estimates domestic pork availability was two point nine percent above last year. More pork is staying home while margins tighten on both sides of the chain.

HOST: Global. The import window meets physical reality.

SHAWN: The additional three hundred thousand metric ton tariff-free beef window is one of the biggest fall variables. S and P Global says it may be difficult for Brazil and Paraguay to ship anything approaching one hundred thousand metric tons a month. Their team currently estimates U.S. imports could run around thirty-five to forty thousand metric tons a month under current conditions. At that pace, a substantial portion of the window would remain unused. Brazil-origin ninety C L has been indicated around three oh five or lower, against domestic fresh nineties still above four thirty-five. China’s Brazilian beef quota was reported about ninety-nine percent complete. Australian cattle remain tight. Asian buyers continue competing for product. The tariff window is real. The assumption that all three hundred thousand metric tons simply shows up on schedule is not.

HOST: Policy. COOL is back in the political discussion. There is not yet a new mandatory beef-labeling regime. An actual rule change matters more than the headline. On poultry, Chinese access remains unresolved while U.S. chicken supplies keep growing. On beef, implementation of the tariff-free window — not the headline number — will determine how much additional lean actually reaches U.S. buyers.

SHAWN: This week in review. Packer margins turned positive as feedlot losses deepened. Domestic nineties softened, fifties dropped below a dollar, and imported lean stayed substantially cheaper. Smithfield warned of third-quarter losses while Sterling showed pork profitability tightening. Chicken slaughter and placements remain ahead of last year. Crude moved above one hundred.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Blend economics are improving faster than the domestic ninety price alone suggests. Cheaper fifties and discounted imported lean deserve as much attention as domestic lean. Falling wholesale pork values create buying opportunities, but weak producer and packer margins say the economics remain unsettled. Chicken coverage is still structurally less constrained than beef. Recheck landed-cost assumptions. This week’s move above one hundred crude can erase part of a raw-material advantage before the load reaches the plant.

HOST: Into Monday: cash cattle leverage, imported ninety bookings, pork cutout stabilization, post-WASDE feed direction, and whether crude holds above one hundred.

SHAWN: Latest established values from September tenth. Choice three seventy-eight. Select three fifty-two. Fresh nineties four thirty-five. Eighty-fives three seventy-nine. Fifties ninety-one cents. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies a dollar twenty-one. October live cattle two seventeen eighty-two. October crude one oh two forty-eight. Cattle slaughter year-to-date down eight percent. Hogs down one point two. Chicken up one point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The shortened week gave buyers some openings. Fat trim is cheaper. Domestic lean is backing away from summer highs. Imported lean remains heavily discounted. Pork values are under pressure. Chicken continues to carry more supply. None of those opportunities exist in a vacuum. Cattle sellers are trying to regain leverage. Global buyers are competing for imported beef. Crude above one hundred raised the cost of moving protein through the system. The opportunity is there. The question next week is how much of it survives the landed cost. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell Friday for September 11, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September tenth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October. Over fifteen years, October nineties have averaged four point nine percent below September—and lower every year. Cattle slaughter is down eight percent. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has.

HOST: Wednesday was not one margin story.

SHAWN: Choice gained three twenty. Select lost three oh five. The spread blew out to twenty-eight forty-three. Fifties dropped to ninety-three cents. Nineties and eighty-fives did not establish. Cash cattle stayed quiet. Late-week trade matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Pork has cheaper hogs and a compressed spread. Chicken has more birds. Crude jumped three dollars to ninety-six.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects a seventy to ninety million dollar Fresh Pork loss in the third quarter while Hog Production stays profitable. Bellies bounced almost fourteen cents after Tuesday's break. Corn fell into Friday's crop report. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost did not.

HOST: The quota is about nineteen percent used. Imports were already filling the hole.

SHAWN: July production was short about a hundred million pounds. Imports made up most of the domestic gap. More access is not unlimited beef. Watch October. Watch what actually gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Everybody is watching Brazil. I'm watching October.

HOST: Labor Day is behind us. Fresh fifties are back below a dollar. Domestic nineties are off their summer highs. Imported lean remains well below domestic.

SHAWN: Normally, the calendar starts giving buyers some help here. Over the last fifteen years, October ninety C L has averaged four point nine percent below September—and it has been lower every single year. But domestic cattle slaughter is down eight percent, cow availability remains tight, and imports are filling more of the pounds we aren't producing here. The seasonal hasn't changed. The market around it has. The question is how much leverage buyers actually get this fall.

HOST: There wasn't one margin story Wednesday. There were several.

SHAWN: Beef split. Choice gained three twenty to three eighty oh seven. Select lost three oh five to three fifty-two thirty-four. That widened the Choice-Select spread six twenty-five cents in one session to twenty-eight forty-three a hundredweight. Fresh fifty C L dropped another six fifty-two cents to ninety-three forty-six cents on more than one point two seven million pounds. USDA did not establish fresh nineties or eighty-fives Wednesday. Tuesday's last prints were four thirty-eight thirty-seven for nineties and three fifty-five forty-four for eighty-fives.

HOST: The supply side remains the counterweight.

SHAWN: Wednesday cattle slaughter was one hundred nine thousand. Year-to-date slaughter is eighteen point six nine five million head, down eight percent. Tuesday included twenty-one thousand cows and bulls. So the grind looks different than this summer: cheaper fat, domestic lean off the highs, imported lean well below domestic—and fewer domestic cattle pounds underneath it. Cash cattle stayed quiet in the holiday-shortened week. The late-week cash number matters more than the quiet start.

HOST: Chicken still has what the other proteins don't: more supply.

SHAWN: National composite whole bird held at one sixteen forty. Northeast boneless skinless breast increased a cent and a quarter to one twenty-two eighteen. Leg quarters gained to fifty-three thirty-six cents. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is six point six eight two billion birds, up one point two percent. Cattle slaughter is down eight. Hog slaughter is down one point three.

HOST: Feed helped. Energy did not.

SHAWN: December corn fell five and three-quarters cents to five twenty-seven and three-quarters ahead of Friday's USDA crop report. Harvest is starting. Yield expectations remain wide. October crude jumped three dollars and two cents to ninety-six oh five. Feed got cheaper. Delivered cost didn't get the same help.

HOST: Pork is the margin divide.

SHAWN: Smithfield expects Fresh Pork to post a seventy to ninety million dollar adjusted operating loss in the third quarter, primarily from fresh-pork spread compression. Hog Production is expected to make twenty-five to forty-five million. Packaged Meats is still expected to generate one point oh seven five to one point one five billion for the year. Same protein chain. Three very different places to make—or lose—money. Tyson has described the same problem: lower livestock costs help, but not when product values fall faster than the cheaper hog.

HOST: Wednesday's cutout gained a cent eighty-one to ninety-three sixty-three. It was not a broad move.

SHAWN: Bellies rebounded thirteen ninety-three cents to a dollar thirty-two after falling almost sixteen cents Tuesday. Loins fell three forty-eight cents. Picnics, ribs, and butts slipped. Hams gained. Forty-twos finished eighty-four eighty-one cents. Seventy-twos eighty-nine seventy-eight. Cheaper hogs help. They don't help enough when what you're selling falls faster than what you're buying.

HOST: Global. The imported lean market was quiet coming out of Labor Day. The price difference is not.

SHAWN: S and P assessed imported ninety C L at three oh five F C A East Coast and three twenty-three C I F East Coast on September eighth. Unchanged on the day. Chinese interest in Brazilian beef has started to emerge again. Volumes remain uncertain. Brazil exported forty thousand five hundred eighty-two metric tons of fresh and frozen beef in the first four business days of September. Australian beef exports through September seventh were down fourteen percent year over year, shipments to the U.S. down eight point five. We have more access. That doesn't mean the rest of the world suddenly has unlimited beef to sell us.

HOST: Policy. Imports were already doing the work.

SHAWN: September's one hundred thousand metric ton Affordable Beef tranche was about nineteen point three percent utilized through September ninth. Roughly eighty thousand seven hundred metric tons left. The bigger story started before September. July U.S. beef imports were five hundred forty-one point six million pounds carcass weight, up nineteen percent. Through July, three point eight three eight billion pounds, up twelve point nine percent. July U.S. production was about one hundred million pounds below last year. After lower exports, the domestic shortfall was about eighty-seven million pounds. Imports increased about eighty-five million. July exports fell six point one percent. Brazilian shipments to the U.S. in August for September arrival were about thirty-one thousand three hundred thirty-two metric tons, or roughly ninety-four million pounds carcass weight. The new quota didn't create America's need for imported beef. It changes access and economics. The supply hole was already there.

HOST: Procurement radar. Late-week cash cattle. Next established USDA ninety C L print. Quota utilization, physical arrivals, and delivered values on imported lean. Whether belly volatility keeps carrying the pork cutout. Friday's crop report. Whether crude holds near ninety-six after a three-dollar day.

SHAWN: Labor Day shortened the production week. Week-to-date slaughter comparisons are not a normal five-day week.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Wednesday didn't give us one margin story. Beef buyers got cheaper fifties, but cattle supply remains tight. Pork has cheaper hogs, but processors are still fighting the spread. Chicken got some help from corn, while higher crude pushed against delivered cost. Imported beef continues filling part of the domestic gap. Lower inputs are showing up. Keeping the savings is the harder part. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Thursday Margin Monitor for September 10, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September ninth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved. Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than a dime under last week. Brazilian nineties are indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port. Fifties did not establish.

HOST: Cheap imported lean can change grind math. Indications are not bookings.

SHAWN: Brazilian sellers are watching China. U.S. buyers are waiting on domestic lean. Until volume actually books, we don't know how much of that discount hits U.S. nineties or the finished grind. Access is three hundred thousand metric tons. Access is not arrivals.

HOST: Chicken has more supply. Demand is uneven. Pork's problem is demand, not efficiency.

SHAWN: Chicken production is three to four percent above last year. Tenders and wings are the foodservice weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports looked better Tuesday. Bellies dropped nearly sixteen cents. Hog slaughter is down. Pork production is up. Efficiency makes pounds. It does not make reasons to buy them.

HOST: Harvest is five percent done. Crude settled at ninety-three.

SHAWN: Crop ratings are worse than last year. Friday's USDA report is the next feed checkpoint. Ninety-three-dollar oil is already in freight, refrigeration, and inputs. Don't trade the headline. Watch what gets bought. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Yesterday I said quit watching nineties by themselves and watch the blend. One day later, the lean side moved.

HOST: Fresh domestic nineties averaged four thirty-eight Tuesday, more than ten cents below last week's average. Brazilian ninety C L is being indicated near three oh three to three oh five at the port.

SHAWN: That doesn't mean Brazilian beef automatically trades here. Sellers are watching China while U.S. buyers wait to see where domestic lean settles. And fifties didn't establish Tuesday, so we still don't have the other half of the blend equation.

HOST: That's the post-Labor Day market.

SHAWN: The imported lean is cheap enough to change the grind equation. Now we need to see whether U.S. buyers actually buy it—and what that does to domestic nineties and fifties. The calendar changed. Now price discovery has to catch up.

HOST: Beef first. The blend started moving.

SHAWN: Tuesday's fresh ninety C L national average was four thirty-eight, versus last week's four forty-nine weekly average. USDA reported more than seven hundred thirty-two thousand pounds of fresh ninety trade. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three fifty-five. Fresh fifties did not establish.

HOST: Offshore, the discount is large.

SHAWN: Brazilian nineties near three oh three to three oh five at the U.S. port. Australia-New Zealand around three twenty-three C I F East Coast. These aren't directly interchangeable quotes, but the discount to domestic fresh lean is substantial. The important word is indications. Actual business remains limited. U.S. trimming imports through August twenty-ninth reached about six hundred seventy-three thousand five hundred metric tons, up sixteen point five percent year over year. Tight cattle supplies haven't disappeared. Year-to-date slaughter remains well below last year. Heavier carcasses are cushioning some of the production decline.

HOST: Takeaway on lean.

SHAWN: Brazilian lean is cheap enough to change blend economics. Until U.S. buyers start booking meaningful volume, we don't know how much of that discount works into domestic nineties—or the finished grind.

HOST: Chicken. More supply. Uneven demand.

SHAWN: Ready-to-cook production is tracking roughly three to four percent above twenty twenty-five. Tenders and wings—two foodservice-heavy cuts—are tracking toward their lowest annual average prices since twenty eleven. Inflation-adjusted restaurant sales were down about one percent year over year from March through May. But Tuesday's physical market was a counterpoint. USDA called chicken mostly steady, adequate supplies, moderate demand. Tender demand increasing. Dark meat clearing well. Exports active.

HOST: HPAI is back on the radar. About two hundred fifty thousand six hundred commercial birds in recent Upper Midwest detections, ahead of fall migration.

SHAWN: More chicken is coming. The pressure isn't uniform. Foodservice-heavy cuts remain the weak spot. Tenders, dark meat, and exports are showing better current demand.

HOST: Pork. More pounds won't fix demand.

SHAWN: Bellies grabbed the headline Tuesday, dropping nearly sixteen cents. That's not the larger story. Pork's share of U.S. consumer food spending fell from four point six percent in two thousand one to three point three percent in twenty twenty-five. Year-to-date hog slaughter is below last year while pork production is slightly higher. Production incentives reward feed conversion, growth, and pigs per sow. Consumers reward eating quality, convenience, and value. Producing another pound more efficiently doesn't create another pound of demand. Pork doesn't need beef or chicken to lose for pork to win. The opportunity is getting consumers to value pork more.

HOST: Global. China's next bid matters.

SHAWN: Brazilian beef shipments to China fell to sixteen thousand eighty-one metric tons in August, down more than eighty percent from July, as China's twenty twenty-six Brazilian beef quota approaches exhaustion. Some exporters are already talking twenty twenty-seven quota business. The U.S. has opened temporary additional access for lean beef. Brazil can compete here, wait for China, or move product elsewhere. Australia and New Zealand sit in the middle of that pricing pressure.

HOST: Policy. Access isn't the same as arrivals.

SHAWN: The temporary lean-beef expansion is three hundred thousand metric tons in three one-hundred-thousand-ton tranches through November. Three hundred thousand of announced access does not equal three hundred thousand arriving. USDA and USTR are directed to monitor a pricing condition. If it isn't met, the remaining additional quota can be pulled. Congress has also moved to constrain it. Watch how fast the first tranche fills, which origins participate, where Brazilian nineties actually transact, and whether the full program lasts through November.

HOST: Feed. Harvest started. Cost risk didn't end.

SHAWN: Corn harvest is five percent complete, ahead of the three percent five-year average. Only fifty-six percent of the crop is rated good or excellent versus sixty-eight percent last year. Some Illinois field reports are twenty to forty bushels below last year. Friday's USDA update is the next checkpoint. Energy moved the other way. October W T I settled ninety-three oh three, up a dollar forty-one. November Brent finished ninety-seven ninety-two after trading as high as ninety-nine forty-six. That exposure runs through diesel, freight, refrigeration, processing, and inputs.

HOST: Procurement radar.

SHAWN: Watch actual U.S. bookings of Brazilian nineties—not just offers. The next fifty C L print matters because cheaper fat can lower grind cost before imported lean fully works in. Look past Tuesday's belly break. Fall ham demand may tell us more about pork's next leg. Friday's crop update can move feed while ninety-three-dollar crude has already changed freight and inputs.

HOST: Snapshot. Choice three seventy-eight, up a cent and a half. Select three fifty-five. Fresh nineties four thirty-eight. Fresh eighty-fives three fifty-five. Pork cutout ninety-two cents. Bellies one eighteen, down almost sixteen cents. October live cattle two seventeen oh two, up four oh seven. October feeders three twenty-five forty-five, up five thirty. October hogs eighty-four twenty-five, up a dollar ninety-five. December corn five thirty-three and a half. October crude ninety-three oh three.

SHAWN: Cattle slaughter year-to-date down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Hog slaughter down seven-tenths. Pork production up four-tenths. Chicken production up two point two.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: The first post-Labor Day numbers are separating the stories. Domestic lean moved lower, but imported nineties still have to turn cheap offers into actual U.S. business. Pork's bigger problem is demand, not production efficiency. Chicken has more supply, but demand isn't weak across every cut. Harvest begins to answer the corn question. Ninety-three-dollar crude adds another cost risk. This isn't the week to trade the headline. Watch what actually gets bought, where demand holds, and which costs really move. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Wednesday Watchlist for September 9, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September eighth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Labor Day is in the rearview. So is the last major grilling holiday of the summer. I'd quit watching nineties by themselves. Watch the blend—and watch the calendar.

HOST: Cattle are still tight. The grind is not the same tape.

SHAWN: Beef-cow slaughter is down about fourteen percent through August. Total cattle slaughter is down seven point five. Fresh nineties backed off to four forty-nine. Fifties fell to about a dollar, after nearly one ninety in the second quarter. Choice finished three seventy-six. Select three fifty-six. October live cattle two twelve ninety-five.

HOST: Pork is a margin split. Chicken is the supply protein.

SHAWN: Weekly pork cutout averaged ninety-five cents. Bellies dragged the week, then rebounded Friday. Smithfield made more money raising hogs and less money in packaged meats. Chicken slaughter is up one point six percent. Wings dropped more than a nickel to one twelve. Three South Dakota turkey detections are a watch item, not a national disruption.

HOST: July beef exports were worth more than four hundred twenty-one dollars a fed head, up fourteen percent.

SHAWN: Fewer pounds. More value. Exclude China and the value is still higher. Washington can add hooks and lending. It cannot add cattle.

HOST: Short week. Noisy comparisons.

SHAWN: Labor Day didn't change the cattle supply. It changed the calendar. Protect the grind math. Watch whether Friday's pork rebound holds. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Your daily market update on all things protein

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 8, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: Labor Day is in the rearview mirror, and so is the last major grilling holiday of the summer.

HOST: That matters when you look at the grind complex.

SHAWN: Beef-cow slaughter is down roughly fourteen percent through August and total cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent, so domestic lean-beef supply has not suddenly become plentiful. Yet fresh nineties have backed off their summer highs while fifties have fallen to about a dollar. The calendar is changing the equation.

HOST: Peak summer grilling has done its job. Fall merchandising is a different pull on ground beef.

SHAWN: Add cheaper fat and potentially more imported lean, and the cost of the grind could look very different this fall even with cattle supplies historically tight. I'd quit watching nineties by themselves. Watch the blend—and watch the calendar.

HOST: Executive summary. Beef supplies remain tight, but the grind equation is changing. Pork margins are splitting between production and further processing. Chicken remains comparatively well supplied. July beef exports generated more than four hundred twenty-one dollars per fed head, up fourteen percent from last year.

SHAWN: The cattle supply hasn't loosened, but parts of the beef complex have. Choice finished Friday at three seventy-six a pound. Select strengthened to three fifty-six, narrowing the Choice-Select spread to roughly twenty cents. October live cattle closed two twelve ninety-five, down a dollar thirty-five. October feeders three twenty fifteen, down ninety-five cents.

HOST: The more interesting move is underneath the grind.

SHAWN: USDA put fresh ninety C L at four forty-nine, below its summer peak. Fresh fifty C L averaged just a dollar, after approaching one ninety in the second quarter. Fresh eighty-fives averaged three forty-one. That decline is not being driven by an abundance of cattle. The cutter cow cutout averaged three forty-six fifty-eight, down three fifty-eight for the week. Beef-cow slaughter through August is estimated at roughly one point three million head, down fourteen percent. Dairy-cow slaughter is about five percent higher. Total cattle slaughter through September fifth is near eighteen point four eight million head, down seven point five percent.

HOST: Beef-on-dairy is supplementing fed supplies, but those cattle are not all economically equal.

SHAWN: High-beef-merit crosses are putting more usable carcass pounds on similar live weights. In a tight cycle, head count tells you how many animals are available. Genetics help determine how many usable beef pounds those animals produce.

HOST: New World screwworm remains another supply variable.

SHAWN: Surveillance, sterile-fly releases, and producer-level prevention are in play. The commercial concern is cattle movement. Further spread could add another constraint to an already tight North American cattle system.

HOST: Chicken remains the comparatively stable protein entering fall.

SHAWN: The weekly whole-bird composite averaged one sixteen a pound, essentially unchanged. Boneless skinless breasts averaged one twenty-two. Drumsticks fifty-six cents. Bulk leg quarters fifty-three. Wings were the mover, falling more than five cents to one twelve. Young-chicken slaughter through September fifth is about six point six billion birds, up one point six percent, against cattle slaughter down seven point five.

HOST: HPAI is back on the watchlist. Three South Dakota commercial turkey detections, about one hundred forty-nine thousand birds.

SHAWN: That is not a national poultry-supply disruption. It does deserve attention as the industry moves into the higher-risk fall period.

HOST: Pork is increasingly a margin story, not a simple price story.

SHAWN: The weekly pork cutout averaged ninety-five cents, down about two cents. Loins ninety cents. Bellies a dollar forty-seven. Picnics sixty-six cents. Bellies were the biggest drag on the weekly primal, down nearly nine cents. Friday's daily market told a different story. The cutout closed ninety-two eighty-six, up a dollar seventy-four, as bellies rebounded. October lean hogs still finished eighty-two thirty, down a dollar fifteen.

HOST: Smithfield's first half shows the split.

SHAWN: North American pork operating profit increased nearly twelve percent to one hundred eighty-two million, helped by lower hog-raising costs and favorable hedging. Packaged-meats operating profit declined as higher meat costs and inflation pressured downstream margins. Better economics at the hog-production level do not automatically mean better economics for further processors.

HOST: Global watch. July beef exports held volume and lifted value.

SHAWN: Eighty-nine thousand one hundred thirty-nine metric tons, essentially unchanged. Value up six percent to seven hundred ninety-six point seven million. Export value exceeded four hundred twenty-one dollars per head of fed slaughter, up fourteen percent year over year. Through July, volume is down eight percent, value down two. Exclude China, and value is up six percent while volume is down only one. Fewer exported pounds do not necessarily mean less export demand.

HOST: July pork exports softened six percent on both volume and value. Year-to-date is still up.

SHAWN: Some of that July weakness reflected trade disruptions affecting pork variety meats, not simply weaker underlying demand.

HOST: Policy. Washington is looking harder at beef processing and competition.

SHAWN: More Packers and Stockyards investigations, more interstate access, technical help for smaller plants, and a guaranteed lending program for small and regional beef processing. Those can create opportunity. They do not create cattle. A processor still needs animals, labor, capital, throughput, and a home for the entire carcass. More hooks don't create more cattle.

HOST: Mandatory country-of-origin labeling has not been reinstated. The order is a review of existing authority. California is moving a voluntary non-ultra-processed certified designation. Prop Twelve already showed how state specs create a parallel pork supply chain with a different cost structure.

SHAWN: The buyer question is whether other state food standards eventually do the same thing.

HOST: Procurement radar. This is not a normal five-day week.

SHAWN: Labor Day shortened slaughter, delayed USDA releases, and compressed cash-cattle, procurement, and logistics windows. Treat holiday-affected comparisons accordingly. For beef, supply stays tight even as the grind adjusts to the post-Labor Day calendar. For pork, watch whether Friday's belly rebound carries. Chicken remains the best-supplied protein. Feed offered some Friday relief—corn, beans, and meal all lower—but one pre-holiday session is not a new feed-cost trend. Monday export inspections and Crop Progress move to Tuesday.

HOST: Bottom line.

SHAWN: Labor Day didn't change the cattle supply. It changed the calendar. Beef enters fall with fewer cattle but a different grind equation. Pork has better upstream economics without equivalent relief for further processors. Chicken still carries the strongest production growth. The numbers this week will be noisy. Watch what survives the holiday distortion: cattle availability, grind economics, pork processing margins, and chicken supply. Watch the blend. Watch the calendar. Stay disciplined.

HOST: That's The Protein Pulse Taco Meat Tuesday for September 8, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.

Host: Market desk

Analyst: Shawn

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Closing Bell Friday, September fourth. From The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: One profitable week does not mean the beef business is fixed.

HOST: Packer margins improved. Cattle are still scarce. And Thursday showed why buyers should not get comfortable.

SHAWN: Sterling has packer margins at about one hundred forty-four dollars a head as utilization hit eighty-three point seven percent. Tyson still expects a six hundred twenty-five to seven hundred seventy-five million dollar Beef loss this fiscal year. Both can be true. Cutting capacity can help today’s processing math without fixing the cattle shortage.

HOST: Then the board and the physical market split.

SHAWN: October live cattle jumped four twelve to two fourteen thirty. Feeders gained six seventy-two to three twenty-one ten. But Choice slipped to about three seventy-seven, Select to three fifty-one, and fresh nineties to roughly four forty-three. Don’t chase the board when cash, boxed beef, and lean trim have not confirmed it.

HOST: Pork still has relative value. Margin is thin.

SHAWN: Packers made about three ninety a head. The cutout fell to ninety-one cents, crushed by bellies. Hog breakevens on new placements jumped to seventy-four eighty-eight. Brazil shipped more pork in July and made less money doing it. Being cheaper than beef is not the same as making money.

HOST: Chicken is the protein adding supply.

SHAWN: Slaughter is one point seven percent above last year. Breasts have been running about thirty percent cheaper than last summer. Buyers can find pounds. Processors still have to turn those pounds into margin.

HOST: Feed is back in the conversation. Meal made a new contract high.

SHAWN: October soybean meal closed three forty-eight sixty. A softer corn close does not mean feed got cheaper. Watch coverage, basis, and what you actually pay delivered.

HOST: Globally, Europe suspended affected Brazilian animal products. That is about one point eight billion in annual trade.

SHAWN: European beef is not extra U.S. nineties. Losing a premium outlet changes carcass math and where product competes. The U.S. is also opening three hundred thousand metric tons of lean-beef access. This is a flow story, not a new-supply story.

HOST: Bottom line heading into a short holiday week.

SHAWN: Cattle remain scarce. One better packer-margin week is not an all-clear. Protect coverage. Protect margin. Let the physical market confirm the board. Stay disciplined.

HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

Host: Market desk anchor

Analyst: Shawn (Managing Director commentary)

HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast, your executive briefing on U.S. beef, pork, and chicken markets. This is the Closing Bell Friday edition for September 4, 2026, from The Sparks Group.

SHAWN: One profitable week does not mean the beef business is fixed.

HOST: That’s the line from Shawn’s Take this week. Packer margins improved, but cattle are still scarce. Thursday also delivered a sharp reminder of how quickly the equation can change.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates packer margins improved to about one hundred forty-four dollars a head last week as utilization climbed to eighty-three point seven percent. At the same time, Tyson now expects its Beef business to lose six hundred twenty-five to seven hundred seventy-five million dollars this fiscal year. Both can be true. Reduced capacity can improve today’s processing economics without fixing the cattle shortage that created the problem.

HOST: And Thursday showed why buyers shouldn’t get comfortable.

SHAWN: Cattle futures ripped higher while cash cattle, boxed beef, and lean trim moved lower. Soybean meal also reached a new contract high. Don’t chase the board when the physical beef market hasn’t confirmed it. And don’t mistake softer product for abundant supply.

HOST: Across all three proteins, the message is protect margin rather than bet on one market direction heading into a shortened holiday week.

Let’s start with beef.

SHAWN: Thursday exposed the disconnect between the board and the physical market. October live cattle jumped four dollars and twelve cents to two fourteen thirty. October feeders gained six seventy-two to three twenty-one ten. But Choice fell to about three seventy-seven a pound, Select to three fifty-one, steer live FOB over eighty percent Choice was around two eighteen, and fresh nineties declined to roughly four forty-three.

HOST: The weakness wasn’t just the headline cutout.

SHAWN: Choice strips dropped sharply and tenderloins moved lower, while seventy-three percent ground beef moved against the trend. That matters because processors had just started getting some breathing room. Feedlot margins were still estimated around minus two hundred thirty-five a head.

HOST: Tyson’s longer view is still grim.

SHAWN: The company is restructuring processing capacity around a smaller cattle supply. The procurement question is whether cattle costs move higher again before the product side can support them. Thursday’s futures rally says that risk is still very much alive.

HOST: Pork next. Relative value is there, but margin is thin.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates pork packers earned only three dollars and ninety cents a head for the week ended August twenty-ninth. Producers remained profitable at about forty-seven a head, but that was well below last year. Thursday didn’t help the processing side. The cutout fell about five cents to ninety-one cents a pound, driven heavily by bellies. The belly primal dropped more than thirty-two cents.

HOST: Feed is becoming more important to forward hog economics.

SHAWN: Sterling estimates the breakeven for hogs placed last week at seventy-four eighty-eight, compared with sixty-seven ninety-three for hogs marketed last week. And globally, Brazilian pork exports reached one hundred thirty-one thousand five hundred metric tons in July, up three point seven percent from last year. January through July shipments were up nine point one percent. More interestingly, July export revenue fell five point six percent despite the extra volume. Brazil is putting more pork into the global market, but more pounds are not automatically producing more value.

HOST: For U.S. pork, expensive beef still creates an opening. Capturing it will take more than simply being the cheaper protein.

Chicken remains the supply-growth protein.

SHAWN: U.S. chicken slaughter is running one point seven percent above last year year-to-date. Summer production is estimated about two point two percent above twenty twenty-five, and full-year production up two point nine. Those additional pounds have coincided with significant price pressure. Wholesale breast values have been running roughly thirty percent below last summer, and Tyson cited softer foodservice demand as it lowered its Chicken operating-income outlook.

HOST: USDA described Thursday’s broiler market as mostly steady, with moderate supplies and mostly fair demand. Tenders were improving, dark meat continued clearing well.

SHAWN: For buyers, chicken remains the protein with the clearest supply availability. For processors, the challenge is turning those pounds into enough value to protect margin.

HOST: Feed moved back to the front of the conversation.

SHAWN: December corn finished Thursday at five forty and three-quarters, down two and three-quarters cents, but recovered from overnight weakness. November soybeans reversed higher to thirteen sixteen and a quarter. The bigger protein-cost development was soybean meal. October meal gained five seventy to three forty-eight sixty and reached a new contract high. A slightly lower corn close does not mean feed costs uniformly improved.

HOST: The shortened week ahead also compresses purchasing, logistics, and delivery windows.

SHAWN: Buyers need to look beyond Thursday’s corn close and pay attention to coverage, basis, and actual delivered feed economics.

HOST: On the global side, Brazil suddenly has two very different protein stories.

SHAWN: The European Union suspended imports of affected Brazilian animal products effective September third under its antimicrobial-compliance rules. The action affects roughly one point eight billion dollars of annual Brazilian trade, including about one point zero five billion of beef and seven hundred sixty-three million of chicken.

HOST: Europe is an important premium market for higher-value Brazilian cuts.

SHAWN: Those products are not interchangeable with the lean processing beef U.S. buyers need. European-bound beef should not simply be treated as additional U.S. nineties. But losing a premium outlet can change carcass economics, export incentives, and where other Brazilian beef ultimately competes. The timing matters because the U.S. is simultaneously opening additional access for three hundred thousand metric tons of lean beef, with Brazil positioned as a potential supplier.

HOST: Chicken faces a similar trade-flow question if European access stays closed.

SHAWN: This isn’t about creating more global protein. It’s about changing where the protein flows, and what each market is willing to pay for it. New World screwworm remains another cattle-supply variable. Mexico continues containment and surveillance. Mexican feeder cattle could supplement tight U.S. feeder supplies, but animal health remains the gatekeeper.

HOST: Policy is trying to address tight beef supplies on three different timelines.

SHAWN: Heifer retention and herd rebuilding address long-term domestic cattle availability. The additional three hundred thousand metric ton lean-beef TRQ can affect processing-beef availability much sooner. Processing investment is the third lever. Capital can reopen a plant. It cannot create the cattle needed to run it economically.

HOST: Executive bottom line.

SHAWN: Cattle remain scarce. The physical beef market weakened Thursday, and futures just put cattle costs back on notice. One improved beef-packer margin week is not an all-clear. Pork continues to offer relative value, but packer margins remain thin while global pork supply keeps expanding. Chicken has the clearest supply availability, but those additional pounds continue pressuring value. Feed deserves a seat at the table again. Meal reached a new contract high, and energy remains expensive enough to matter for freight and refrigerated logistics.

HOST: Monday’s holiday will shorten slaughter, trading, USDA reporting, and procurement schedules.

SHAWN: Cash cattle timing, showlists, and delivery windows can shift. Next week’s week-over-week comparisons should not be treated like a normal operating week. For procurement teams, this is not a week to chase one headline or one futures move. Stay disciplined on coverage, protect margin, and let the physical market confirm the board.

HOST: That’s The Protein Pulse Closing Bell for September 4, 2026. From Shawn Sparks and The Sparks Group. For sourcing, procurement, and market intelligence, visit TheSparks.Group.

SHAWN: Stay disciplined.