The 10-Minute Take

Are higher oil prices good or bad for Canada’s economy?

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 12:43:00 -0400

Ongoing conflict in the Middle East has pushed global oil prices higher, raising questions about the impact to Canada’s oil-exporting economy.

This shock differs fundamentally from the past including 2015’s oil price collapse, which drove structural changes in Canada’s energy sector over the past decade. The result: A surprisingly neutral net effect from today’s high oil prices on real economic growth.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

Why domestic energy investment isn’t likely to surge despite higher oil prices.
How the price shock can benefit some sectors but hurt others, creating a fractured impact.
What to expect for Bank of Canada rate decisions as inflation pressures evolve.

The fallout from the global oil shock on U.S. inflation

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 08:45:00 -0400

Rising oil prices and its impact on the US economy are continuously evolving, and how long the crisis lasts will be the key determinant of where headline inflation settles.

If the shock persists, higher energy prices will layer onto core inflation pressures amid the passthrough of tariffs to prices.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC’s Head of US Economics, Mike Reid, joins economist Carrie Freestone to discuss how he’s thinking about inflation and the hit to consumption in the months ahead. The episode covers:

Constructing a range of scenarios to assess potential impact of higher energy prices on headline inflation.
Signs of early tariff passthrough already showing up beneath the surface.
Whether the US labor market and consumers are well-positioned to withstand these shocks.

What’s next for U.S. tariffs after IEEPA strike down

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:50:00 -0400

The U.S. Supreme Court’s decision against the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad-based tariffs is far from the end of the U.S. tariff story.

The administration has already pivoted to new legislative authorities and opened investigations for future measures. For Canada, the implications are more limited than many would think.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down what the ruling means for trade policy and the economy. They discuss:

What IEEPA is, why it was struck down, and what the administration is doing instead
Four major statutory authorities the U.S. administration could use to reinstate or expand tariffs.
Why Canada’s tariff backdrop hasn’t really changed from the ruling—and what matters for the bilateral relationship going forward.

U.S. inflation’s stubborn ceiling: Why the Fed’s 2% target remains elusive

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 06:00:00 -0400

One month into 2026, U.S. inflation continues to run above 2% for a fifth consecutive year—and the reason goes beyond a single cause.

Some recent data—including easing in core services and vehicle prices—might suggest relief is near, but a closer look reveals these improvements are unlikely to persist as a trend.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore what's driving inflation and how to cut through the noise. They explore:

How a tight labor market, robust consumer demand, tariffs flowing through supply chains, and a lagging housing inflation measure are all keeping inflation elevated.
What are the critical differences between the Consumer Price Index and Personal Consumption Expenditures and why the Fed's preferred measure often tells a different story than headline CPI readings.
Key data challenges and what to monitor: The Producer Price Index for tariff signals, business surveys for pricing intent, and wage dynamics for inflation's floor.

Breaking the trade trap: Can Canada diversify fast enough?

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 10:10:00 -0400

Canada's extreme trade concentration—with 75% of energy exports and 77% of manufacturing exports going to the U.S. in 2024—has left the country vulnerable to protectionist trade policies.

While 2025 data shows encouraging early signs of diversification, most Canadian exporters still lack the infrastructure and trade channels needed to pivot away from U.S. markets effectively.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone are joined by colleague Salim Zanzana for conversation on:

Canada’s concentrated trade reality and how it’s evolved in the past year.
What early diversification efforts reveal about Canadian exporters adapting.
Recent developments between Canada and China and their economic impact.

Season 4 premiere: What 2026 holds for North America

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 09:12:00 -0400

We're back for season four!

In this season premiere, join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they cut through the noise and reveal themes that matter for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2026.

Despite a turbulent 2025, Canada's economy is starting from a surprisingly stronger position than many realize. Per-capita GDP improved for the first time in three years. The real question is: Can this improvement be sustained as international headwinds continue to grow.

South of the border, our outlook for the U.S. remains "stagflation lite"—sticky services inflation around 3% paired with growth below 2%. It's not just about tariffs. Uneven consumer spending driven by wealthy households and retirees is keeping inflation pressures alive.

Three common economic trends in Canada and the U.S. in 2025

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 06:00:00 -0400

Trade disruptions in 2025 took a toll on Canada-U.S. relations after decades of coordination and integration. Still, the two economies are more similar than many may appreciate.

In this season finale of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone round up three common themes shaping both economies this year. They include:

• Slowing population growth, and how it’s impacted a key labour market benchmark—breakeven employment rates.

• Resilient consumer spending holding up despite much trade uncertainty and deteriorating job market conditions.

• Big government deficits—an ongoing theme in the U.S. post-pandemic, but also emerging in Canada as well.

What end of U.S. government shutdown means for data and Fed

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 06:00:00 -0400

The U.S. government shutdown ended after 43 days—the longest in history—and, economists now have more clarity about the release of government data.

But, clarity on timing doesn't mean clarity on the state of the U.S. economy. Without key October data, the U.S. Federal Reserve faces significant fog heading into the critical December interest rate decision.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss:

When (and if) key indicators like the October jobs and inflation data will be released, and what gaps we're facing.
What September data revealed about the economy heading into the shutdown
How the shutdown will weigh on GDP growth in Q4 2025.
Why the Fed's December meeting is consequential, and whether a pause may be the most prudent move.

Canadian Budget 2025: How should we be thinking about bigger deficits?

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 06:00:00 -0400

In response to tariff pressures and economic weakness, Budget 2025 commits big new spending to spark private investment and reignite growth – with higher deficits and debt as a result. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economist Claire Fan is joined by RBC Assistant Chief Economist Cynthia Leach to discuss:

Why fiscal policy is the right tool to address the weak growth outlook
How the growth agenda is central to the government’s fiscal plan
Whether the budget does enough to catalyze growth – and the execution risks that could derail it
If Canada can afford to spend big right now

When data goes dark: The ripple effects of a U.S. government shutdown

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 06:00:00 -0400

It’s the 23rd day of the U.S. government shutdown and 750,000 federal workers are furloughed.

Significant data disruptions are clouding visibility over the economy just as the U.S. Federal Reserve restarts its rate-cutting cycle.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they discuss:

Why data disruptions may be more concerning than immediate economic disruptions.
What alternative private sector indicators reveal about the current state of the U.S. economy.
The Fed's likely path forward amid the data blackout and trade uncertainty.

International trade 101—the Canadian edition

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 05:30:00 -0400

Amid the constant churn of U.S. tariff headlines, fundamental questions about Canada's trade often go unanswered. Questions such as:

• What exactly does Canada export—and where does it all go?

• Has Canada always been this dependent on the U.S. market?

• Which provinces are most at risk from trade disruptions?

• Should we worry less about tariffs on certain goods like fungible raw materials than others?

In this episode on the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into these questions and more.

Rate Cuts and Crossroads: What’s Next for the Fed and BoC?

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 10:48:00 -0400

Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada returned from the sidelines this week – with widely anticipated decisions to cut their policy rate by 25 basis points.

But behind these moves lie different motivations and signals, sparking debate over what this means for the economic outlook on both sides of the border.

In this episode, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what drove these decisions and why they view the Fed’s action as a step toward policy normalization—not easing. Later, they shift their focus to Canada, where a mixed data picture begs the question: will the BoC cut rates again in October?

Are U.S. tariffs close to achieving their goals?

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 05:45:00 -0400

U.S. tariff collection among imports are now at the highest level since the 1930s, and many are wondering how these policies are measuring up against their objectives.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen is joined by Senior Economist Claire Fan to discuss:

• Who’s bearing the costs of tariffs so far.

• The current and future prospects for U.S. manufacturing amid protectionist measures.

• Whether tariff revenues can make a meaningful dent in America's massive federal deficit.

• What these findings mean for the sustainability of U.S. tariff policy going forward.

Stagflation lite: What this means for the U.S. economy

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 06:00:00 -0400

Recent economic data in the U.S. reinforces our "stagflation lite" view as early signs of tariff impacts have emerged alongside unexpected labour market weakness.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:

• What stagflation lite means and why it's different from severe stagflation in the 1970s.

• How producer price data are showing early impacts of tariffs before these fully reach consumer prices.

• Why dramatic downward revisions to employment figures signal a concerning trend.

• What this scenario in the U.S. means for Canada’s export-dependent economy.

BoC hits pause: Why rates aren’t budging amidst uncertainty

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 06:00:00 -0400

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate steady for the third consecutive meeting in July despite acknowledging some softening in the Canadian economy since January.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down:

What's keeping the central bank on the sidelines.
How CUSMA exemptions have protected Canada from the worst of U.S. tariff impacts.
The role of growing government spending plans in shaping the outlook.

Is Canada's housing market regaining its footing?

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 06:00:00 -0400

Canada's housing market is showing early signs of recovery after months of trade war anxiety kept homebuyers on the sidelines.

But even with three consecutive months of increasing home resales, activity remains below levels at the beginning of the year, with significant regional differences across the country.

In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics' Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss:

-How housing affordability has improved to its best level in three years, even though it’s still far from pre-pandemic levels.

-The significant variations in market conditions between regions and housing segments (i.e. condos vs. detached homes).

-How trade uncertainty, Bank of Canada interest rate decisions and labour market trends are influencing the housing recovery.

Why is the U.S. unemployment rate low amid trade uncertainty?

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 09:45:49 -0400

The U.S. unemployment rate has remained near historic lows amid massive uncertainty from trade wars. A long-term structural trend—surging retirements—is keeping the unemployment rate from rising drastically even during short-term cyclical deterioration in the labour market. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss: • The mechanisms of how record retirements keep the unemployment rate low over the medium-term. • Why the U.S. arguably needs more new workers than it needs new jobs. • How these structural forces will play out with near-term cyclical forces (like a labour market deterioration). • How immigration policy in Canada has blunted—but not fully eliminated—the cost of population aging.

How worried should we be about spiking oil prices?

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 10:00:04 -0400

Oil prices spiked last week following escalating conflict in the Middle East between Israel and Iran. This has raised concerns about higher inflation against an already uncertain economic backdrop. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack: • How high inflation could hit in Canada and the U.S. if oil prices continue higher. • How higher energy prices could impact growth. • What this could mean for interest rates in Canada and the U.S.

How is large government debt in the U.S. shaping its economy?

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 13:24:45 -0400

An enormous U.S. government deficit continues to raise concerns about fiscal sustainability as Moody’s joined other rating agencies in downgrading the U.S.’s credit rating. This raises questions about the implications for U.S. monetary policy, interest rates, and the impact on neighboring economies. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore: • Why fiscal challenges may be limiting the U.S. Federal Reserve’s ability to cut interest rates. • How the recent "Big Beautiful Bill" could add to the fiscal burden. • What these trends mean for Canada’s economy and monetary policy.

How has the U.S.-China trade war de-escalation impacted our forecasts?

Thu, 22 May 2025 17:18:28 -0400

The U.S. administration reducing tariffs on Chinese imports from a staggering 145% to 30% marked a significant breakthrough in the ongoing trade war. But, the average effective U.S. tariff rate still sits at 13%— and fundamental trade headwinds haven't disappeared. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC's Economics Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone take you through how our forecasts for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending and growth have changed with the reduction of Chinese tariffs. They also tackle: • How an unwinding of tariffs on Chinese imports will impact our outlooks for U.S. core inflation, consumer spending, and growth. • How this policy shift factors into the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions for 2025. • Whether Canada's economic outlook will be impacted by U.S.-China trade developments.

Trade war backlash: Where are Canadians vacationing now?

Thu, 08 May 2025 09:30:15 -0400

The trade war is changing travel plans. As tensions simmer, Canadians’ trips to the U.S. dropped substantially in early 2025 compared to last year. But, vacations weren’t cancelled altogether—Canadians are just going somewhere else. And, this trend of travelling less to the U.S. isn't unique to Canada – arrivals to the U.S. from other countries have also slumped this year. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explore: • How travel patterns have changed in 2025 to reflect broader trade tensions. • Whether tourism within Canada will rise to offset international declines. • How these trends may impact the services sector’s outlook and trade deficits.

Forecasting in volatile times: Are tariffs a game changer for growth and inflation?

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 10:30:26 -0400

Full-blown reciprocal U.S. tariffs are on pause for 90 days, but sizeable 10% tariffs imposed on most countries on April 5 remains in place, and it, along with steep tariffs on imports from China, could have significant implications for the country’s inflation and growth. The U.S. trade-weighted average tariff rate is currently at its highest since the 1930s, but, in a twist of fate, Canada has emerged as one of the least impacted countries, thanks to USMCA exemptions. RBC Economics has updated forecasts for the U.S. and Canada to reflect these developments. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone attempt to answer these questions: · How will tariffs influence inflation and GDP growth in the U.S. and Canada? · Will either country see a recession in the coming year? · What could future policy from the Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve look like?

Are services immune to tariffs in the trade war?

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 00:00:00 -0400

More attention is being focused on how Canada can better diversify trade to alternative sources as U.S. tariffs and threats continue to escalate. In the goods trade, Canada's geographical proximity to the U.S. makes it difficult to diversify away from the U.S. But, that is much less of a constraint for services. In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dig into: • How much services Canada trades and with who? • Is Canada is well positioned to leverage services for broader trade diversification? • What are the headwinds facing services amid the ongoing trade war?

Have the impact of tariffs shown up in the jobs market yet?

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 00:00:00 -0400

Consumers and businesses on both sides of the border have been paralyzed with uncertainty related to trade. Confidence has tanked and we've also witnessed a notable deterioration in other “soft” sentiment data in recent months. The extent that recent trade policies have impacted hard data is unclear but matters more for central bank decisions. In this week’s episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down how trade turbulence is impacting labour markets in Canada and the U.S., and what to expect next in the ongoing trade war.

Is inflation making a comeback in Canada?

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 00:00:00 -0400

Economic data has shown that Canadian inflation was a little firmer than expected in early 2025, especially after considering the impact of the federal tax holiday that pushed prices lower for a few categories including restaurant dining. In the U.S., the picture is a bit “stickier.” Broadly resilient consumer demand has been keeping price pressures at uncomfortably high levels, and not all U.S. households are impacted equally. Those that earn less tend to have less options in avoiding higher priced essentials. Join RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they give their latest take on inflation, and how the looming trade rift plays into that.

What we’ve learned about U.S.-Canada trade so far

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 00:00:00 -0400

As the threat of tariffs has been evolving, economists have been busy assessing the potential economic fallout. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss: -What we know about the tariffs announced, what retaliation could look like and how these forces will impact both the Canadian and U.S. economies. -What Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem said in the January meeting about how the Bank could respond. -How markets reacted to tariff news and how we are assessing the balance of risk between a hit to demand and price pressures arising from potential policies. Join us as we unpack how we’re thinking about the potential damage from a trade war.

How do Economists measure the impact of potential tariffs on Canada?

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 00:00:00 -0400

The looming threat of potential U.S. tariffs is keeping economists and monetary policymakers up at night. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: -How RBC Economists are thinking about a U.S. tariff shock- including the multiple stages of passthrough to the economy. -How we think the Bank of Canada could respond to higher prices resulting from tariffs. -Why “reshoring” isn’t as easy as it sounds. Tune in to hear why tariffs are demand-destructive and to understand the Bank of Canada’s predicament if required to respond to these policy-induced price-shifts. While we highlight that the economic damage is likely too severe for these threats to materialize, we also discuss what the consequences would be for the U.S. and Canada if tariffs are implemented.

The Loonie slump: What’s behind it and where it’s headed

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 11:00:16 -0400

Season three of the 10-Minute Take is here, and we’re kicking things off with a deep dive into a hot topic—the Canadian dollar’s dramatic dip against the U.S. dollar, to levels unseen since the pandemic. In this episode, RBC Economics’ Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break down: • The key drivers behind the loonie’s recent slump. • What this means for inflation in the current economy. • Where we think the currency is headed in 2025. Tune in to hear why we don’t expect the Bank of Canada to bat an eye, and how Canada’s strong net international investment position will be particularly helpful.

What economists are thinking about heading into 2025

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 11:00:29 -0400

The Canadian economy has been through a whirlwind in 2024. Canada has been in an extended period of underperforming per capita growth compared to the United States since 2019. Still, 2024 was a pivotal year for Canadians with inflation coming down and interest rates finally moving lower. But has inflation truly been tamed? If so, why doesn't it "feel" like affordability has truly gotten better? And, how do big policy pivots on immigration and global trade fit into it all? Join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this 2024 10-Minute Take wrap-up episode. They'll discuss the highlights in a year-in-review before addressing key themes for 2025 in the final episode of the season.

What does a massive U.S. government deficit mean for Canada?

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 00:00:00 -0400

The U.S. government deficit is unusually large at 6.4% of gross domestic product in 2024—the average over the last five decades is 3.7%. Promises from the new Trump administration on the campaign trail suggest it is likely to grow even bigger over the next four years. Massive fiscal spending has been fueling U.S. growth, but will have important and, ultimately, costly consequences for the economy. Lower corporate taxes could also hurt Canada’s competitiveness, at a time when the economic divergence with the U.S. is already large. In this 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone dive into the growing government deficit in the U.S., and its ripple effects on Canada.

Why are so many Canadians struggling if we’re amassing record savings?

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 00:00:00 -0400

Canadian household balance sheets appear exceptionally strong as disposable income continues to rise alongside savings. But, what the latest economic data tells us is distinctly different from how many households are feeling. There are many signs the average Canadian consumer is suffering. How can both be true at the same time? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this paradox of some Canadians falling behind on credit card payments, while others see savings rise. We’ll unpack the different realities experienced by various income groups, focusing on spending behaviours, debt accumulation or savings, and the distinct difference between wage growth and changes in disposable income.

Will there be another jumbo rate cut from the BoC in December?

Tue, 29 Oct 2024 00:00:00 -0400

The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 basis points in October—marking the largest reduction since the pandemic. A day later, the federal government announced new immigration targets for the next three years that would drastically alter population growth in Canada. Both of these moves will have an impact on the Canadian economy. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest rate cut, why it was bigger than before and what to expect from the BoC going forward. They’ll also tackle how immigration targets fit into it all.

Canadians are still renewing mortgages at higher rates- will this hurt the economy?

Thu, 17 Oct 2024 18:28:13 -0400

With many Canadian households planning to renew longer-term fixed rate mortgages at higher rates into 2025 and 2026, Canada’s “mortgage renewal cliff” is hardly behind us. Higher mortgage payments mean less money leftover to spend on essentials and non-essentials and on balance, a weaker economic outlook. But we don't think this is a huge risk, as long as interest rates continue to drop and labour markets don't plummet. Join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan to discuss the upcoming wave of mortgage renewals, how it impacts the overall economy, and why we think the worst of the mortgage renewal cliff is behind us.

Inflation is back at 2%—why doesn’t it feel like it?

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 10:00:37 -0400

Headline inflation in Canada dropped to the 2% target set by the Bank of Canada for the first time since the pandemic in August. That means higher interest rates implemented by the central bank since 2022 have worked to reduce price pressures and restore balance back in the economy. But as much as that is good news, a closer look at the data shows today’s 2% inflation is not quite the same as 2% inflation from before the pandemic. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone discuss the latest inflation trends in Canada and how and why it’s different from before and what this means for the economy going forward.

What led the U.S. Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points?

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 09:00:35 -0400

The U.S. Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the first time since the pandemic in September by 50 basis points. The easing of monetary policy was highly anticipated with inflation showing further signs of deceleration and a very gradual, but worrying, rise in unemployment. Still, many were expecting a 25 basis point cut, because overall economic output remains strong–propped up by robust consumer activity. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone and special guest, RBC Chief Economist Frances Donald, as they unpack the Fed's latest interest rate decision and what red or green flags are emerging from U.S. economic data.

What do new Chinese EV tariffs mean for Canadian businesses and consumers?

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 13:17:08 -0400

The Liberal government recently announced new tariffs on electric vehicles, steel and aluminum imports from China—marking the latest move in the global trend of trade segregation to boost domestic priorities. That’s not the end of it - by the end of the ongoing 30-day government consultation, tariffs could also be imposed on other products including solar cells, EV batteries, chips, and critical minerals. These new measures are aimed to shield domestic producers from unfair international competition, but will also lead to an immediate increase in input costs for Canadian importers, while creating more tension amid an already frigid global trade environment.

What have market volatility and recession fears meant for Central Banks?

Thu, 22 Aug 2024 14:14:53 -0400

Both U.S. and Canadian households are facing recession fears- but for different reasons. Downside surprises to U.S. data in early August triggered a massive equity selloff. And a triggering of the “Sahm rule” in the U.S. was met with recession fears. In Canada, households are feeling stretched and job seekers struggle to find work. Despite not being in a recession, it certainly feels like one. How will Central Banks react and when will things start to feel easier for Canadian households? In this episode of the 10-minute take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone for a macro update as they answer your burning questions around the latest data points, recession fears, and what all of this means for the year ahead.

Young Canadians are complaining about the economy. Do they have a point?

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 10:00:20 -0400

Younger Canadians are bearing the brunt of the softening labour market, accounting for the lion’s share— 80%—of the increase in Canada's unemployment rate since the summer of 2022. That share is much higher than in previous downturns like the global financial crisis. Not having a job results in a big hit to disposable income. That coupled with surging costs to service mortgages and other debt has forced many younger Canadian households to deleverage. Some of these challenges are set to unwind in the year ahead, as inflation eases and interest rates drop lower. Other issues, including limited access to the housing market could have a longer-lasting impact on young Canadians' lives. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they take a deep dive into the challenges facing young Canadians.

What is behind Canada’s rising unemployment if it’s not immigration?

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 10:00:13 -0400

The recent deterioration of the Canadian labour market comes at a time when immigration and population growth have also increased significantly. Many have put the two together, and attributed rising unemployment solely to the increase in the labour force due to newcomers. On that, we have a different view. It is true that landed immigrants are seeing a faster increase in the unemployment rate, but that’s been the case whenever the economy has softened in previous periods. This time around, the bigger deterioration was seen among students and new graduates who are having an increasingly hard time landing a job as demand for labour continues to pull back. In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack trends in the labour market, starting with how immigration fits into it all. They’ll then discuss which age groups and industries have been hit particularly hard, before finishing up with what to expect going forward.

What does a second Trump presidency mean for North American trade?

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 10:00:29 -0400

The focus is back on former U.S. president Donald Trump’s regressive trade policies after the first U.S. presidential debate and heading into November’s elections. On his campaign trail, Trump has promised to impose hefty tariffs on imports if elected for a second term—suggesting 60% tariffs on imports from China and 10% tariffs on all other imports across the board. in this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone look back at tariffs imposed by Trump during his last presidency and their impact on the U.S. economy. They’ll debunk some of the common misconceptions about the impact of tariffs on economic growth and job creation, before moving on to answer key questions such as what to expect this time around, and how Canada fits into it all.

Why should we care about a productivity gap in Canada?

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 16:28:47 -0400

Canada’s underperformance in productivity has attracted a lot of limelight recently. It’s not a new problem, but the gap (especially when measured against the U.S.) has simply gotten too large to ignore. In the 1970s, the level of Canadian productivity was roughly 90% of U.S. levels. Today it’s more like 70%. That deterioration over the decades leads to an enormous $20,000 earnings gap, between an average Canadian and an average American currently per year. Indeed, historically, gains in productivity have correlated well with real wage growth. And that’s really why everyone should care about slower productivity. Because at its core, a lack of productivity growth means a lack of improvement in living standards. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen and Economist Claire Fan as they tackle productivity. They’ll start by going over all the basics – what productivity is, how it’s measured and why it matters, before detailing a few of the many drivers underlining Canada’s underperformance, and what could help in the period ahead.

Travel season’s here! What can we look forward to?

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 10:00:27 -0400

With summer approaching, what can we look forward to this year’s travel season that might be different from before? For one, it took longer for Canadians to feel comfortable with longer distance travel following pandemic disruptions but as of the end of 2023, demand for overseas tourism had finally recovered. That trend will likely continue this summer, as more Canadians travel further away to destinations that may have something different to offer. Switching the lens inward, the rebound in travel demand among Canadians has not been fully reciprocated by foreign visitors coming to travel in Canada. That’s where there’s still a sizable gap to be filled. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack travel trends. They’ll start by going over where things stand as of the beginning of this year, before getting to some soft spots remaining, and explain why or why not those will bounce back in 2024.

How does population aging weigh on Canada’s economy, and how can immigration help?

Thu, 30 May 2024 11:00:21 -0400

An aging population has dire economic and fiscal consequences. It means widespread labour shortages, more upward pressure on wage growth and inflation, and potentially a growing funding gap for public social services. Canada is not alone in facing such challenges. What is unique, however, is how the Canadian government has utilized immigration as a tool to combat those headwinds. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they unpack what it means for the economy to have an aging population. They’ll highlight how Canada measures up against the U.S. and the role immigration can play to soften the blow.

What is a neutral rate of interest and why did the Bank of Canada move it higher?

Thu, 16 May 2024 10:00:22 -0400

In April, the Bank of Canada shifted its estimate for neutral rate up 25 basis points- a reflection that the 'normal' of interest rates in the post-pandemic era is likely higher than the decade before. What exactly are ‘neutral’ rates and how did the Bank know to adjust them higher? After many decades of neutral rates moving lower, why is the pendulum swinging back? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they chat monetary policy and answer all of your burning questions around the ‘neutral’ rate of interest.

Will the Bank of Canada be influenced by higher for longer in the U.S.?

Thu, 02 May 2024 10:00:28 -0400

In early 2024, the disparity in economic performance among advanced economies has grown more apparent. Increasingly, we are seeing the Canadian economy underperforming, especially comparing to strong conditions in the U.S.. Not so optimistic, however, are the U.S. inflation numbers that are once again gathering heat. This has prompted considerations that the Federal Reserve will need to keep rates higher for much longer. But will the BoC have to follow suit? On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will answer this question for you. They will start by going over where the potential concerns are with a rate divergence between the Bank of Canada and the Fed, before getting to why the BoC is not expected to be derailed in its upcoming easing cycle.

How can we improve housing affordability for Canadians?

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 10:00:35 -0400

Housing affordability has become a generational concern in Canada and recently took centre-stage in the Federal Budget. At today’s prices, two-thirds of Canadian households cannot afford to purchase a detached home based on earned-income alone. How did we get here? And how can we improve access to home ownership? On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take we are joined by special guest, RBC’s Assistant Chief Economist Robert Hogue to discuss his latest report, The Great Rebuild. Robert will unpack what has driven Canada’s momentous housing supply challenges and how they can be solved in the years ahead.

What can we expect from Canada’s new cap on temporary residents?

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 10:00:26 -0400

Two weeks ago, Canada’s Minister of Immigration announced plans to limit the scope of international migration in Canada over the coming years. The announcement detailed early plans to reduce the share of temporary residents (mostly study and work permit holders) in the population to 5% over the next three years. In order for that target to be reached, the number of temporary residents will need to drop by a staggering 20% over the same time frame. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone break this new policy down. They will walk through details of the newly announced cap, who’s expected to be impacted in the near-term before delving deeper to discuss the broader implications on Canada’s population growth, GDP and other important economic metrics.

Why is it so hard for renters to save?

Wed, 20 Mar 2024 10:00:39 -0400

Canadian renters are more squeezed than ever before! Renters are allocating a greater share of their take-home pay to housing than homeowners at the same time that costs for other essentials (and interest on debt) have risen. This has resulted in renters as a collective spending more than they earn. Down-payment requirements are mounting relative to take-home pay, making it exceptionally difficult to save for a home. On this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone unpack housing as a vehicle for wealth accumulation, explaining how opportunities for wealth generation are becoming less accessible and what that means for a large segment of Canada’s population.

Can Generative AI solve Canada’s productivity challenge?

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 11:00:23 -0400

Generative AI is still a relatively new technology- to-date, just over 9% of Canadian businesses have adopted it. But among Canadians who use generative AI, the vast majority say it improves their work. Canada has been long plagued by slowing productivity growth, which is essential for raising Canadians’ standard of living. Will generative AI be the silver bullet solution to Canada’s productivity challenge? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan answer all of your burning questions around generative AI and what it could mean for economic growth in Canada.

Will the international student cap impact Canadian rents?

Wed, 21 Feb 2024 11:00:32 -0400

Over the past few years, Canada’s population growth has eclipsed the global average. International students accounted for about 20% of the recent population surge. The immense growth has ignited concerns about housing availability and affordability. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, we welcome back RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia, who will unpack the new federal policy and explain whether it will have an impact on rental demand (and prices) going forward.

What will drive growth in the back half of 2024?

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 11:00:21 -0400

In 2023, Canadian households faced higher debt-servicing costs on mortgages and consumer credit as well as higher rents. Canadians had to tighten their belts and in many cases, forgo savings. Will 2024 look different? What will drive the slow rebound in the back half of the year? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone as they unpack consumer trends and explain why the back half of this year will look different.

Surprises in 2024, already?

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 11:00:36 -0400

Just a couple of weeks into the new year and the economic landscape is full of surprises. Data on Canadian inflation again showed just how "sticky" domestic price pressures can be. Globally, supply chains are again being challenged, with attacks in the Red Sea disrupting container shipments. And finally, Canadian labour markets have been slowing for months. But unlike prior downturns, layoffs have actually been relatively limited and it's longer job searches for students and new graduates that are bearing the brunt instead. On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, join RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan as they walk through three key trends that already jumped out as surprises in 2024.

When are interest rate cuts coming?

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 11:00:29 -0400

It’s a new year and the Bank of Canada (BoC)'s overnight rate is currently sitting at its highest level in over two decades. Canadians facing higher borrowing costs are eager to see the BoC come to the rescue by changing course with interest rate cuts. But is the economic data soft enough for the BoC to pivot? On this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack their views on when rate cuts will happen and what the trajectory will look like.

What surprised economists in 2023?

Thu, 07 Dec 2023 11:00:27 -0400

The Canadian economy has seen some pivotal shifts in 2023. The year started off with inflation at multi-decade highs, widespread labour shortages, and exceptionally strong consumer spending. The economy was very obviously overheating, and “recession” was more of a buzzword than a reality. Fast-forward to December and the macro data is looking considerably softer, in-line with a mild recession. Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this final episode of the season where they provide a recap of key macro themes that played out this year and tell you what to look out for in the year ahead.

What's going on in the Canadian jobs market?

Thu, 23 Nov 2023 11:00:23 -0400

Many indicators these days are pointing to deteriorations in labour market conditions in Canada. Job vacancies are down, job searching time have lengthened. The unemployment rate is still low but has increased by 0.7% over the span of 6 months. Clouding the outlook for the Canadian jobs market is also the slowdown in consumer demand, especially for discretionary services industries where staffing levels never fully recovered to pre-pandemic to begin with. Outright layoffs to-date are still limited. But record level of household indebtedness these days also means that job losses, when they come, could hurt much more than they used to. In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan look at the latest Canadian labour market data. They’ll discuss what’s behind the ongoing deterioration, and what to expect moving forward.

How has soaring immigration impacted economic growth in Canada?

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 11:00:26 -0400

This past decade, Canada's population growth outpaced India, China, and South and Central America, surpassing the global average. In recent years, Canada's soaring population growth has been entirely fueled by immigration. Canada relies heavily on newcomers to fill jobs left vacant by retiring Baby Boomers. But rising need for housing is adding to pre-existing housing affordability concerns. In this week's episode of the 10-Minute Take, economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan will unpack the latest federal immigration targets, and discuss how rising immigration has impacted the Canadian economy.

How badly are Canadian businesses and consumers wounded by high interest rates?

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 14:30:46 -0400

High inflation and even higher interest rates are turning up the heat for Canadians, making it increasingly challenging for consumers and businesses to pay off existing debt, to spend or to invest. Indeed, the latest Bank of Canada surveys revealed that almost 60% of consumers had to cut spending in Q3 as they contended with elevated prices and debt-servicing expenses. Echoing that was a slowing in demand reported by businesses, some of whom even flagged an outright decline in sales over the past year. The silver lining? Slower demand is lowering inflation pressures, making it less likely for prices to have to go up as large or as frequently moving forward. Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan walk you through the latest quarterly Bank of Canada surveys, and unpack what it all means for BoC rate decisions moving forward.

How long can the U.S. economy’s outperformance last?

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 10:00:38 -0400

U.S GDP growth continues to soar while activity cools off in Canada. Canadians have tightened their belts, prioritizing the purchase of essentials over discretionary goods. In the U.S., consumers are still spending at a record pace and momentum has yet to fade. But will the U.S. continue to outperform Canada? We don’t think so! Tune in to this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take as RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan unpack what’s driving U.S. resilience and why it won’t last.

Why are so many workers on strike these days?

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 10:00:26 -0400

High inflation has prompted many workers to push for wage increases, and unions are responding by pressuring employers to pony up. Canada has witnessed a drastic surge in labour stoppages- or strikes- in recent months. There’s still a gap to close - wage increases for unionized workers since early 2020 lag those of non-unionized workers by about 7%. But will this mean sustained pressure on wage growth in the future? On this episode, we are joined by RBC Economist Rachel Battaglia to discuss what’s driving the higher frequency of wage disputes and the importance of taming inflation in order to mitigate these disruptions.

How indebted are Canadians and is it a problem?

Thu, 14 Sep 2023 10:00:28 -0400

While Americans are still spending, Canadians are tightening their belts. And the U.S. economy continues to surge while Canada's shows early signs of weakness. Why? Debt levels and faster refinancing! In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain how debt impacts Canadian consumer behaviour, which age cohorts are most impacted--and just how worried we should be about it all. Tune in!

When China sneezes, do we all catch a cold?

Thu, 31 Aug 2023 10:00:20 -0400

Western countries are still grappling with decade-high interest rates and elevated inflation. But in China, prices fell on a year over year basis in July. And amid softer consumer demand and a wobbly real estate market, the Chinese central bank has taken the opposite measure to its Western counterparts: cutting key lending rates. Just how bad could things get in China? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down what's happening and what it might mean for the rest of the world. We explore the slew of data coming out of the country, add some important context on demographic trends before bringing the conversation back to Canada.

Are the Bank of Canada's interest rate hikes working?

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 12:29:45 -0400

Western central banks don't want to push interest rates higher…but they will if they need to. So how effective have rate hikes actually been? The latest data offers conflicting signals: unemployment is up but inflation remains above target—and consumer spending is still strong. In this episode, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone examine this burning question, assess the likelihood of a “soft landing” (and explain what that is).

Will the pandemic pet economy boom last?

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 10:00:26 -0400

If you have a four-legged friend at home, that makes you part of the pet economy! Today the global pet industry stands at over $250 billion USD and is over twice the size of the global film industry. Part of the boom can be traced back to the pandemic, when households’ time spent at home rose substantially, along with their need for companionship - the US alone added 5 million pets from 2019 to 2022. The outlook for the pet sector however is less positive, as interest rate hikes take purchasing power out of households’ hands, lowering spending on all things including pet-related products and services. Join RBC Economics Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan in this week’s episode of the Ten Minute Take, where they take a closer look at the pet economy, how much it’s grown and where it’s headed.

Why aren’t rising rates cooling Canadian spending?

Wed, 19 Jul 2023 10:00:20 -0400

The most aggressive monetary tightening cycle since the 1990s has sent interest rates soaring. Yet Canadians keep on spending. Why and will they keep it up? In this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone explain why spending will slow but won’t outright decline.

Will my grocery bills ever get lower?

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 14:43:07 -0400

If you’re wondering whether your grocery bills will ever turn out less scary than they are now, we have bad news for you. Food inflation peaked in Canada just this past January. But slowing inflation does not mean lower prices, it merely means prices will climb at a slower rate. What’s causing prices for food to stay high? And moving forward, what are some of the challenges that will continue to put pressure on food prices in the next decade? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this episode of the Ten Minute Take, as they dig into food inflation, and answer questions about your grocery bills.

Interest rates are rising again?

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 10:00:26 -0400

The Bank of Canada put the brakes on its record rate hiking cycle in January. Five months later, it sprang back into action—surprising much of Bay Street with a 25 basis point increase. What drove the decision and how much higher will rates rise? More important: how will this impact Canadians? Join RBC Economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone on this week’s episode of the 10-Minute Take.

What will this year's summer travel season look like?

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 10:00:24 -0400

Anxious to scratch your travel itch this summer but worried about disruptions and high prices? You’re not alone! In this week’s episode of the 10 Minute Take podcast, RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan break down this year's travel trends for you. We start with what drove the chaos last summer, before moving on to chat about some interesting trends we’ve uncovered. As it turns out, despite resilient demand, Canadians have already made subtle changes to their travel choices to combat rising prices. Finally, we’ll chat about the outlook for travel in an increasingly challenging economic environment, and why we expect things to slow but not crash.

What keeps economists up at night?

Tue, 23 May 2023 20:16:21 -0400

“Allow us to introduce ourselves!” In this episode of the 10 Minute Take, get to know RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan. Spend a day in the life of an economist and get our latest hot takes on the macro outlook. What's changed since RBC’s initial recession call last summer? Are signs of weakness emerging? And finally, what do we lie awake thinking about?

Will higher wages arising from labour disputes fire up inflation?

Wed, 10 May 2023 10:00:20 -0400

Canada's largest public sector strike in decades just ended—with a deal that includes double-digit wage hikes. Will negotiated wage settlements like these undermine the Bank of Canada’s efforts to cool inflation? RBC economists Carrie Freestone and Claire Fan discuss this and other issues on this episode of the 10 Minute Take.

If Canadian home prices are falling, why are rents going through the roof?

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 10:00:37 -0400

Just as house prices in Canada start to cool off, rent costs are heating up. What's driving the increase? Declining affordability comes to mind as high home prices push more would-be buyers into rentals. But are other factors at play? And just how pricey can the rental market get? On this special episode of the Ten Minute Take, Rachel Battaglia from the RBC Economics team talks us through the ups and downs of Canada's home rental market-and what's next.

How has market turmoil hit the Canadian economy?

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 13:21:10 -0400

The failures of SVB and other U.S. regional banks sent markets roiling. But what does this mean for the broader economy? Is it all temporary noise or could it leave longer-lasting scars on financial markets? In this episode of the 10-Minute Take, RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone will take you back to basics, explaining what market volatility is, where they see it and how it will affect economic growth and central bank decisions.

Will Budget 2023 derail the Bank of Canada's inflation-fighting campaign?

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 10:00:27 -0400

The federal budget tabled a buffet of new spending measures. But the price tag was hefty: a $40 billion deficit and no sign of a return to balanced books anytime soon. Is Ottawa spending too much? And how does the budget jive with the current economic and monetary policy backdrop? RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone answer these and other burning questions in this episode of the 10-Minute Take.

What's up with the long lines at my local coffee shop?

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 09:00:10 -0400

Why are restaurant reservations so hard to find these days? Labour market tightness--it's something we hear on every corner. But what does it really mean? And how is that relevant to you? Join RBC economists Claire Fan and Carrie Freestone in this episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot, where they share their take on Canadian labour markets and where they're heading.

Why are groceries so expensive if inflation is moderating?

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 10:00:20 -0400

Inflation is down, right? So why is my grocery bill still so high? Recent data showed price growth losing steam…yet everything from coffee to chocolate is still expensive. We'll explain why, and what to expect in the months ahead on the first episode of the 10-Minute Take reboot.

The Ten-Minute Take (Trailer)

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 02:21:57 -0400

Macroeconomics for everybody! The (new) 10-Minute Take podcast from RBC Economics will explain (in simple terms) what the latest economic data means and why you should care. It's everything you wanted to know but were too shy to ask -- in less than 10 minutes.

Why markets are edging higher in spite of cautious corporates

Wed, 22 Jul 2020 10:00:29 -0400

As we head into a pivotal period of the current earnings season, tech stocks have buoyed key Wall Street indices – Nasdaq, for one, briefly hit another record high earlier this week. But what's on the ticker doesn't necessarily reflect what's on the horizon. The COVID crisis in the U.S. is worsening, while Congress and the White House square off over another aid package. Even c-suite executives are openly sharing their concerns on the economic recovery. How might the rest of earnings season play out? And what do the latest rallies reveal about consumer sentiment? Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, shares what's beneath the latest market movements. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

U.S. oil demand sputters as lockdowns tighten

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 10:46:56 -0400

Four months into the COVID pandemic and some Americans have hit lockdown fatigue, if traffic data is any indication. Take Las Vegas, which has seen flight activity increase steadily over the last six weeks. Or Houston, where traffic was up and down leading into the 4th of July holiday. Contrast this with Europe and China, which have emerged from lockdowns and are back to near normal activity. How will mobility patterns shift as U.S. re-openings continue to stop and start? And how will this erratic demand affect oil prices? Michael Tran, RBC Capital Markets' Global Energy Strategist, shares his insights from real-time traffic data during the pandemic. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Canada's fiscal snapshot – massive deficit, record federal debt

Wed, 08 Jul 2020 22:25:15 -0400

The COVID crisis delivered a bigger shock to our economy than most expected. Ottawa is forecasting an enormous $343 billion deficit in 2020, which pushes the federal debt load past the $1 trillion mark for the first time. With the worst behind us, the focus now is how to sustain the early economic recovery and especially, how to get Canadians back to work. Can Canada take on more debt without further risking our sovereign credit rating? And how will the federal government transition people from the CERB relief program to more productive wage subsidies or other schemes? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, shares his take on Canada's fiscal snapshot.

Can U.S. markets stay up while summer shutdowns expand?

Mon, 06 Jul 2020 10:00:11 -0400

The U.S. gained nearly 5 million jobs in June, but that was before the latest COVID-19 outbreaks. Now, state re-opening plans are being put on hold, if not dialed back – with almost certain economic consequences. And yet, markets are partying like it's 2019 – Dow Jones had its best quarter since 1987, Nasdaq hit a record high. But just how far will the Fed go to support the economy? And will markets get a reality check? Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets' Chief U.S. Economist, shares his update on the U.S. economy.

How streaming platforms are winning through crisis

Mon, 29 Jun 2020 10:00:22 -0400

If content is king, then streaming platforms are its thrones. And those thrones are getting higher and higher as consumers cut the cord with traditional media providers. Audiences have been seeking refuge in front of their screens and services like Netflix, Amazon Prime, and HBO Max have offered their entertaining alms in-kind. But can these producers continue to satiate the people's growing hunger for quality content, especially with halted production around the world? And who among them can survive the ongoing streaming wars? Kutgun Maral, RBC Capital Markets' Media Analyst, shares his outlook on streaming services. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How the crisis became prime time for Amazon

Fri, 26 Jun 2020 10:00:35 -0400

While most people have been under lockdowns, The Everything Store has been everywhere. The explosive demand for online shopping and surge in remote work have been boons for both Amazon's core retail offering and AWS, its cloud computing business. But can the company capture and sustain this once-in-a-generation opportunity? And how will ongoing antitrust probes in both the U.S. and E.U. affect its growth? Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets' Internet Analyst, shares his take on Amazon. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

A cloudy outlook for young job seekers

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 10:00:12 -0400

The COVID-19 crisis dealt employees a serious blow, and young people have been hit particularly hard with a nearly 30% unemployment rate. The summer months – crucial for internships, seasonal, and starting careers – might not be much better, as employers may call back their furloughed full-timers before hiring students. How will these setbacks affect this cohort's long-term employment prospects? And how effective have government relief programs actually been? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares the outlook on the youth labour market. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Canada’s provinces are turning the corner on their road to recovery

Mon, 22 Jun 2020 12:54:31 -0400

Last week, Saskatchewan, PEI, and Quebec gave updates on their economic and fiscal situation. They weren't pretty, but there's been enough of a boost in activity that RBC Economics has adjusted its forecasts. Quebec was the most dramatic example, with the return of 30,000 jobs. Saskatchewan and PEI, meanwhile, also showed how much damage has been done, with declines in government revenues of 8-10%. Robert Hogue, RBC Senior Economist, shares his update on provincial economic recoveries. Read the Saskatchewan report: https://bit.ly/2Ynowk3 Read the PEI report: https://bit.ly/3dsl1wR Read the Quebec report: https://bit.ly/2BrLihG For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Work 2.0: How tech is catalyzing the “remote first" workplace

Fri, 19 Jun 2020 10:44:31 -0400

Practically overnight, legions of office workers shifted to working from home as their employers figure out how to keep them productive. That meant installing (or improving) video conferencing tools, messaging apps and the like – keys to an effective distributed workforce. Now, employers are going a step further to reimagine the first principles of work – from location dependent to location agnostic. Welcome to Work 2.0. What will this mean for employees? And how are software firms capitalizing on this opportunity? Alex Zukin, Software Equity Analyst at RBC Capital Markets, shares how the workplace is transforming. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

A path to 5G for Canadian telcos

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 10:00:24 -0400

Canada's major telecom operators are forging ahead with their plans to build 5G networks, despite government delays on the decision to allow Huawei to bid and the 3,500 Mhz wireless spectrum auction. At least Canada has strong 4G networks, which may tide us over 5G's decade-long build. But as the crisis has revealed, connectivity is key to thriving in the new economy. Could these delays affect Canada's growth? And how might telcos address the digital divide between urban, and rural and remote communities? Drew McReynolds, RBC Capital Markets' Telecommunications and Media Analyst, shares what's ahead for telecom. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Corporate America's moment of truth on racism

Mon, 15 Jun 2020 12:17:45 -0400

Ongoing protests against racism and violence towards Black communities have hit a boiling point, forcing companies everywhere to re-examine their practices and histories. In addition to questions about police practices and systemic racism across all parts of society, corporate America is being challenged anew on its own record. Black executives hold only 3% of leadership roles in U.S. companies, and only 2% of venture capital dollars goes to African American entrepreneurs. What more can the private sector do? Michael Carter, RBC Capital Markets’ Global Head of Technology Investment Banking and a member of the Washington-based Executive Leadership Council, shares his perspective on how companies can confront racism. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How renewed COVID fears rattled stock markets

Thu, 11 Jun 2020 21:16:20 -0400

Global stock markets plunged after the U.S. Federal Reserve issued grim economic projections for the rest of 2020 and beyond. Budding investor optimism was quickly replaced with the sobering reality of a weak economy and a jump in COVID cases in some U.S. states. Will we see the Fed intervene again? And what could the stock market rout mean for other asset classes? George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading at RBC Capital Markets, shares his take on what's behind the latest market movements. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

The geopolitics of OPEC+ oil cuts

Wed, 10 Jun 2020 11:10:47 -0400

The global group of oil producing countries, known as OPEC+, left its key weekend meeting fractured. While OPEC+ agreed to extend production cuts through to July, its de facto leader Saudi Arabia said it would not. Neither would fellow Gulf states, and Mexico. Add to this an improving (but fragile) demand picture and it could explain why oil prices have been whipsawing since. How will this play out for the oil majors? And where was President Trump this time around? Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets' Global Head of Commodity Strategy, shares her take on the latest OPEC+ deal. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Can pro sports stage an epic comeback?

Mon, 08 Jun 2020 10:48:04 -0400

As the PGA Tour starts up again this week, noticeable changes will include tightened safety measures and the absence of on-site fans – par for the course during a pandemic. Some leagues, like Germany's Bundesliga, have experimented with canned cheers and cut-outs in the stands. But can live sports succeed without live fans? And what does that mean for branding and revenue? Mary DePaoli, RBC EVP and Chief Marketing Officer, shares how the business of sports is adapting to crisis. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

To recover, Canadian tourism needs more Canadians

Fri, 05 Jun 2020 10:54:13 -0400

Summer is around the corner, but the forecast for the tourism sector is less-than-sunny. With border and travel restrictions still in place (even between provinces), families wishing to travel have fewer options than before. Maybe take a road trip around your province. Maybe rent out an Airbnb for a month. Whatever Canadians choose, it will be a boon to Canadian tourism, which has historically depended more on domestic than foreign visitors. But will summer road trips be enough to save the sector? Nathan Janzen, RBC Senior Economist, shares his outlook on tourism. Read the RBC Economics report, For Canadian Tourism, Canadians Matter Most: https://bit.ly/3eQbdhq For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

A U-turn for the auto sector?

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 10:39:55 -0400

In a bygone era, the Sharing Economy had spelled out the death of the personal car – why have your own vehicle when you could just hail an Uber or Lyft? But the auto sector might see some green lights ahead, as people shift from shared transportation towards their own cars. How is COVID changing how (and whether) we drive? And does it put the brakes on trends such as autonomous vehicle technology? Joe Spak, RBC Capital Markets' U.S. Auto Sector Analyst, shares his take on the future of cars. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How the lockdown may hamper Canada's immigrant-fueled growth

Mon, 01 Jun 2020 20:37:28 -0400

2020 was supposed to be a record year for newcomers to Canada – what the country needed to offset an aging population. But then COVID happened. The lockdown, of course, didn't only restrict the movement of people – it dealt a serious blow to Canada's labour market with knock-on effects to other parts of the economy. How are sectors that depend on immigrants, such as agriculture and healthcare, faring? What are the broader consequences if newcomers stop coming? Dawn Desjardins, RBC's Deputy Chief Economist, shares how the drop in immigration levels is impacting our economy. Read the RBC Economics report, COVID-19 Derails Canadian Immigration: https://bit.ly/376AMYX For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How COVID is heralding a new era in healthcare

Fri, 29 May 2020 10:45:07 -0400

Before the pandemic, the challenges plaguing U.S. healthcare seemed insurmountable. Think onerous regulations, outdated processes, and high prices. But the dark clouds of the crisis are bringing silver linings - less red tape, virtual access to doctors, and long-awaited innovation. How are healthcare providers adapting? And what role will Big Tech play? Kennen MacKay, RBC Capital Markets' Co-Head of Biotechnology Research, shares how changes in the U.S. healthcare sector are here to stay. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How Maslow's Hierarchy can explain pandemic spending

Mon, 25 May 2020 20:46:49 -0400

The start of the COVID crisis might forever be associated with a toilet paper shortage as people went into survival mode and stocked up on staples. Or, in the language of Maslow's Hierarchy, people were just trying to meet their basic physiological and safety needs. But as we move up the pyramid and beyond the crisis, where (and how) we spend our money will be different from before. How will retailers adapt? And what are people buying to reach self-actualization? Irene Nattel, RBC Capital Markets' Consumer Discretionary & Staples Analyst, shares how the crisis is changing consumer trends. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

What's ahead for the loonie

Fri, 22 May 2020 10:00:33 -0400

The loonie has defied expectations during the recent rout in oil markets, hitching its wagon to another driver. Move over crude, hello equities. But the road ahead still has bumps, with implications for USD/CAD foreign exchange. How will extended travel restrictions affect cross-border investments? And what could snowbird investors expect from the U.S. Fed? George Davis, Chief Technical Strategist in Foreign Exchange Trading at RBC Capital Markets, joins us with the outlook on the Canadian dollar. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Why gold is glittering while markets churn

Wed, 20 May 2020 10:00:33 -0400

Gold prices have surged during the COVID crisis, driven by low rates and aggressive policy measures to stimulate the economy and investors looking to hedge risks in the market – which explains why gold is staying high even as equities rally. Will the bulls of bullion continue to prevail? And what impact might the eventual recovery have? Chris Louney, RBC Capital Markets' Commodity Strategist, joins us with the outlook on gold. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Quebec's long haul recovery

Thu, 14 May 2020 12:20:38 -0400

The COVID-19 crisis has hit Québec especially hard. The province is dealing with the highest number of cases in the country in parallel with one of the worst economic impacts. In fact, more jobs were lost over March and April than the past three recessions put together. But the government is forging ahead with re-opening plans – giving the economy a much needed shot in the arm to start its gradual recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Quebec. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Mixed economic outlooks across Atlantic Canada

Thu, 14 May 2020 10:00:23 -0400

The Atlantic Provinces faced blows of differing magnitudes to their economies in March and April. Newfoundland and Labrador had the double-whammy of the COVID-19 crisis plus a collapse in oil prices, whereas Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and P.E.I. were impacted similarly to the rest of Canada. Their respective recoveries will likely be just as diverse. With most of the impact hopefully in the past, the provinces can expect some recovery over the second half of this year into 2021. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Atlantic Canada. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Cautious re-opening sets the stage for Ontario's recovery

Thu, 14 May 2020 10:00:23 -0400

The COVID-19 crisis pummeled Ontario's economy and forced more than 1 million people out of a job over the past two months. While the province has avoided the worst scenarios, the government isn't taking any chances. It's chosen a methodical and cautious approach to re-opening, meaning its recovery will be gradual as well. What implications will that have for its diverse economy? How might it handle potential global supply chain disruptions? RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Ontario. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Manitoba, Saskatchewan to see modest recoveries

Thu, 14 May 2020 10:00:23 -0400

The economies of two of the Prairie Provinces have been relatively shielded from the COVID-19 damage, at least compared to the rest of the country, given their shorter lockdowns. However, they face headwinds: Manitoba's manufacturing base is vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions, whereas Saskatchewan has had to deal with falling oil prices and international trade disputes. Despite that, both provinces will likely see modest recoveries through to next year. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Manitoba and Saskatchewan For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Alberta's slow and protracted recovery

Thu, 14 May 2020 10:00:23 -0400

"Double-whammy" might be an understatement for what's happening with Alberta's economy. The twin shocks of oil prices and COVID-19 resulted in job losses in March and April that were worse than the last four recessions combined. But in a positive sign, the government recently put out an ambitious plan to reboot its economy and start a long and winding path to recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for Alberta. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Positive signs for British Columbia's recovery

Thu, 14 May 2020 10:00:13 -0400

While B.C.'s forecasted GDP decline of 5% for 2020 is the worst ever in the province, it's better relative to more than -7% across Canada. That's encouraging news, especially as the province forges ahead with re-opening its economy. It allowed non-essential businesses to stay open through March and April, and given the prominence of its tech sector (tech has outperformed throughout the crisis), might feel even bullish about its recovery. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins us with the outlook for British Columbia. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Can business stimulus hasten the "swoosh" recovery?

Wed, 13 May 2020 10:00:33 -0400

Hopes for a V-shaped recovery – a short, sharp collapse followed by a bounce-back to pre-crisis activity – have been replaced by expectations of a “swoosh.” That is, a large drop followed by a slow incline. To bend the curve, Canadian policy makers have focused the latest round of relief on business. But how effective can these new measures be when much of the economy remains closed? Craig Wright, RBC's Chief Economist, joins us with his outlook for the private sector and a broader recovery. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

What a market recovery can look like

Mon, 11 May 2020 10:15:20 -0400

The U.S. equities market has rebounded upwards of 30% from its low in March, driven by plenty of good news and investor optimism. But the road ahead is full of curves and unknowns that could slow the momentum or worse. Looking in the rearview mirror, previous recessions offer a roadmap to guide the recovery journey. Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Equity Strategy, joins us to share lessons from past market downturns. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

China's economic recovery still a long way off, despite official reports

Fri, 08 May 2020 10:39:14 -0400

China has touted economic re-opening as the central government's triumph over the COVID-19 virus. But though firms are back to work and factories are up and running, growth hasn't recovered. In fact, privately gathered data suggest China's economy continues to struggle. Can the government do more than reopen factories? And what will it take to get Chinese consumers shopping, travelling, and spending again? Leland Miller, CEO of China Beige Book International, joins us our podcast to explain what the official numbers don't. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

What we can learn from Australia’s approach to the crisis

Mon, 04 May 2020 10:00:24 -0400

Australia is flattening the curve of COVID-19 and moving to reopen its economy—slowly. Thanks to a focus on testing and tracing, authorities are gaining confidence to start easing restrictions, but not without some conditions and challenges still ahead. Su-Lin Ong joins us with the details on Australia's COVID exit strategy and economic outlook. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

May Day for commercial retail real estate

Fri, 01 May 2020 11:00:58 -0400

Commercial rent relief programs could not come soon enough. Small businesses, including retailers, struggling to make rent during the crisis months have been handed a lifeline. But will rent relief programs be enough to bridge them through the crisis? And how are landlords weathering the storm? Rod Hunt, RBC Commercial Banking's Managing Director for Real Estate Lending, joins us with his outlook on the commercial real estate market. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How oil producers can help resolve their own crisis

Wed, 29 Apr 2020 10:00:28 -0400

North American producers have struggled to match the historic collapse in demand. One option is “shut and swap” – an idea that would see governments buy future production so oil companies can “smooth” their revenue and plan output with more confidence. Do Ottawa and Washington have the political stomach for that kind of risk? Greg Pardy, RBC's Co-Head of Global Energy Research, joins our podcast to share his proposal. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Why the world’s biggest banks are relatively stable in this crisis – so far

Mon, 27 Apr 2020 10:00:48 -0400

The big U.S. banks have set aside massive loan loss provisions as they prepare for the worst of the COVID crisis. European banks begin to report earnings this week and are expected to do the same. Yet markets have not lost confidence in the world’s biggest banks the way they did in the global financial crisis. Gerard Cassidy, RBC Capital Markets' Head of U.S. Bank Equity Strategy, joins us on the podcast. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Why ESG is outperforming the market

Wed, 22 Apr 2020 10:41:34 -0400

On the 50th anniversary of Earth Day, sustainability may seem like the last thing on a troubled market’s mind. And yet, through the crisis, ESG-focussed investments have outperformed the market, and may be positioned to excel as governments design the biggest stimulus investments in history. Lindsay Patrick, RBC Capital Markets' Head of Sustainable Finance, joins us to discuss how sustainability will shape the post-crisis rebuild. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

What the collapse of crude prices means for the oil market

Tue, 21 Apr 2020 00:18:32 -0400

For the first time, the price of West Texas Intermediate on futures markets plunged into negative territory. It’s the market sending oil producers a message: “We’re awash in oil. Please shut in production.” RBC Capital Markets’ Energy Strategist Michael Tran joins us on the podcast to explain what it means for global markets as well as Canadian production. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How COVID-19 is affecting investment strategies

Fri, 17 Apr 2020 20:06:19 -0400

The global pandemic has roiled financial markets and changed the game for investors. For the past several weeks, investors have been tested on multiple fronts: lower risk premiums thanks to unprecedented central bank stimulus, disrupted business models, and their own emotions. Stu Kedwell, RBC Global Asset Management’s Co-Head of North American Equities, joins us on the podcast to share his perspective on how investment strategies are changing amid the crisis. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Quiet resilience in Canada's housing markets

Thu, 16 Apr 2020 01:16:22 -0400

Wednesday saw the release of startling economic numbers, particularly Canada's GDP down 9% for March. That's not the only figure in decline - national home sales are also down 14%. Prices, however, have remained relatively stable as supply dropped in proportion to demand. RBC Senior Economist Robert Hogue joins our podcast to discuss the outlook on housing. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How Big Tech is using a downturn to its advantage

Tue, 14 Apr 2020 15:15:23 -0400

Amazon’s stock surged this week, hitting a new all-time high on Tuesday. The latest spark: Online shopping for basics like groceries is so intense that Amazon announced plans to hire 75,000 more workers, on top of the 100,000 it’s already added in the crisis. And it’s not the only one thriving in the face of dramatic shifts in consumer behaviour. Mark Mahaney, RBC Capital Markets’ Internet analyst, joins our podcast to talk about how the pandemic is leading to enduring changes in the way we shop – and how other Big Tech players like Google and Facebook may fare. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

A downturn like no other

Thu, 09 Apr 2020 13:22:13 -0400

This may be the darkest quarter on record for the Canadian economy. Our consumer-driven economy could make a rebuild even tougher, as we all tend to our wounds and avoid public places for months to come. As GDP declines and unemployment reaches unprecedented levels this quarter, it may be hard to spot silver linings. But come 2021, low interest rates and pent-up demand should get growth headed back to normal. RBC's Chief Economist Craig Wright joins our podcast to discuss his latest macro forecast. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

How Donald Trump's Fed became the world's central bank

Wed, 08 Apr 2020 21:48:38 -0400

Global markets have rarely seen the volatility they endured in March, but in recent days a degree of calm has returned. One big reason is the Fed's quiet role in extending liquidity lifelines to countries around the world, essentially doing for them what central banks everywhere are trying to do for their own economies. Elsa Lignos, RBC's Global Head of FX Strategy, explains how the Fed restored temporary calm – and what lies ahead for markets that are still in the depths of a global pandemic. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

A COVID cure? Watch for wishful thinking

Mon, 06 Apr 2020 22:37:39 -0400

The race is on for vaccines and treatments for COVID-19. Brian Abrahams, RBC’s Co-Head of Biotechnology Research, has some hope based on what he’s seeing but cautions we’re “in the early innings.” A vaccine is probably not realistic before 2021, he warns. And treatments – antivirals and anti-inflammatories, especially – could be months away. The efficacy of treatments could also vary widely across populations, just as we’re seeing with the virus. A magic bullet for curing coronavirus “is probably wishful thinking.” Even so, the availability of treatments, along with other measures, may slow infections, reduce their severity and enable some return to normalcy. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

Health crisis, yes; debt crisis, no

Fri, 03 Apr 2020 21:04:29 -0400

The explosion of fiscal spending plans in recent weeks will lead to more public debt than many thought imaginable just a few weeks ago. The U.S. government will need to borrow $2 to $4 trillion just to get through the crisis. Western Europe perhaps the same. Canada could add another third to public debt levels. But there’s no reason we can’t slowly grow our way out of the debt hole, especially if interest rates remain low. Eric Lascelles, Chief Economist for RBC Global Asset Management, explains how the debt burden of COVID-19 can be managed. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership.

The Eurozone’s next crisis

Wed, 01 Apr 2020 21:00:27 -0400

Good news, the rate of growth of new COVID-19 cases in Europe appears to be slowing. Bad news, the economic cost is just beginning to hit home. With a deep and broad recession underway, the eurozone is again divided over how to stabilize the economy and pay for its recovery. Ideas for joint action, from procurement of protective equipment to unemployment benefits, are coming by the day. But there’s no agreement on how to backstop the enormous debts member countries will incur. RBC’s London-based macro strategist Peter Schaffrik explains how the continent will bridge its newest divide. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

"Market bottoms take time to form"

Mon, 30 Mar 2020 22:41:43 -0400

The past week saw four big up days for equities, and that tells Lori Calvasina that we haven’t seen enough capitulation to signal a new bull run. She believes more lows may lie ahead. As Head of U.S. Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, Calvasina has been listening to big investors and studying market sentiment – and she’s detecting too much calm given the economic storm. On our latest podcast, she explains how investors should approach the current market and prepare for a stronger 2021. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

Canada’s two-fisted punch

Fri, 27 Mar 2020 21:31:31 -0400

Canada struck back with a two-fisted punch to send monetary and fiscal confidence to the economy. The Bank of Canada not only cut rates; it embraced quantitative easing, to buy bonds and other financial assets from governments that will be borrowing a lot more money. For its part, the federal government came out with Phase 2 of its stimulus package, to help small- and medium-sized businesses stay open and keep their workers on payroll. Will it be enough to prevent a major recession? RBC’s Chief Economist Craig Wright explains. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

King dollar steps back

Thu, 26 Mar 2020 22:53:52 -0400

While stocks have been surging, the US dollar has been on a week-long slide. The correction comes after an extraordinary run-up in the dollar in early March, when investors fled to the greenback’s higher ground and corporates followed, to ensure they were dollar-funded heading into an economic crisis. The prospects now of massive fiscal stimulus and concerted central bank intervention have investors looking anew to the euro, pound and even the Canadian dollar. George Davis, RBC Capital Markets’ currency strategist, explains what lies ahead. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

Can Trump bring peace to the oil war?

Wed, 25 Mar 2020 22:17:55 -0400

Donald Trump is using every diplomatic tool to stop the oil war unleashed by Russia and Saudi Arabia, betting that neither can sustain themselves for long at $25 a barrel. But the Russians may be betting that Trump – or at least U.S. oil producers – will blink first, by scaling back American production and allowing OPEC+ to again drive global markets. Even if the oil powers agree to stabilize markets at a higher price, it may take longer than many are expecting, as the COVID-19 pandemic decimates global growth. Helima Croft, RBC Capital Markets Global Head of Commodities Strategy, joins us to explain. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

This is the Backfill

Tue, 24 Mar 2020 23:03:46 -0400

Washington seems to finally have bipartisan agreement for a $2-trillion stimulus package. Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets Chief U.S. Economist, says it’s enough to “backfill” the U.S. economy until mid-May. How will the world’s economic engine fare after that? That depends on the success of social distancing. But Porcelli thinks the creatively-driven U.S. economy – from media streaming to food services – could be more resilient than markets have assumed. And if U.S. consumers come out of lockdown and unleash their pent-up demand, the world will notice. For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership

Have Markets Found a Bottom?

Mon, 23 Mar 2020 23:15:51 -0400

After one month of declines, 10,000 points off the Dow and a lot of “announcement indigestion,” RBC’s Chief Economist Craig Wright says markets are still searching for a bottom. They’re unsure of how to price so much new risk, all at once. Central banks are also struggling to assert themselves, while governments have not been able to get enough new money into the economy. Even when the trillion-dollar checks are cut, will consumers spend and businesses invest? For more insights about social, economic and technological trends, visit rbc.com/thoughtleadership