The Higher Standard

Iran War: Oil Prices, Fed Shakeup, Jobs Report & Crypto Lives

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Episode 325 is what happens when a jobs report, crypto’s glow-up, Fed-chair musical chairs, and a live geopolitical powder keg all walk into the same podcast and nobody leaves with lower blood pressure. Chris and Saied tear into the bizarre disconnect between war headlines and market optimism, question whether Wall Street has confused “priced in” with “blindfolded,” break down oil, rates, and why replacing Powell with Warsh is a lot messier when inflation and recession risk are both lurking in the room, and still find time to laugh their way through the chaos like only THS can. In other words: a little macro, a little mayhem, and a strong reminder that just because the market is acting calm does not mean the world is.

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🔗 Resources:

We skipped the links and just kept it as real as possible this week.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

You’re Probably Going to Lose Your Job. Get Valuable Now.

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 02:00:00 -0700

AI isn’t coming “eventually.” It’s coming this year... and the biggest scam is that you’re training the model that replaces you every time you use it. We break down Nvidia’s blowout quarter and why the market still shrugged, then zoom out to the darker part: the circular financing and “investment” theater where Big Tech writes checks to OpenAI… and OpenAI hands it right back as infrastructure spend. We talk the real endgame (jobs → AGI → UBI → asset owners win), and we close with the only sane answer: own assets, learn agentic AI, and build yourself into the part of the system that can’t be commoditized.

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🔗 Resources:

Nvidia just reported record Q4 revenue (Christopher M. Naghibi via X)

The Macroeconomic Consequences of AI (Moody’s Analytics)

Report: Jobs That Are Most And Least Impacted By AI (Forbes)

The next chapter of the Microsoft–OpenAI partnership (OpenAI)

The Investment Example (Christopher M. Naghibi via X)

What Sam Altman Doesn't Want You To Know (More Perfect Union)

Inflation Down, Pain Still Up: The Real Cost-of-Living Crisis

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Inflation “cooled” to a 2.4% headline print and yields eased, so the market tried to act like everything’s fine. Then you pay your utility bill, buy groceries, or look at a mortgage payment and remember we’re living in a post 2020 price reset economy. In this episode, we break down why CPI can look “better” while real life stays expensive, why housing is still stuck even with slightly lower rates, and how incentives are doing the heavy lifting for builders while affordability remains the real problem. We also hit the reality check in autos with record 1.67T in debt and subprime delinquencies at an all time high. And because the timeline can’t just be normal, we wrap with the AI ladder, from narrow tools to agentic systems, and what it means when the robots go from talking to doing.

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🔗 Resources:

Consumer Price Index Summary (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics)

Treasury yields slip after slightly lighter CPI reading (CNBC)

The Jobs Report Is A LIE... And Retirees Are Taking The Jobs Back

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 02:00:00 -0700

This episode is a full-on “the headline is the least important part” takedown. We break down how the U.S. manufacturing side of the jobs data is quietly screaming recession (32 straight months of declines… yeah, that’s a thing), while the media does victory laps on top-line numbers like we’re not all watching the revisions come in later with a chair and popcorn. Then we get into the weirdest plot twist of the labor market: retirees are re-entering and grabbing new roles at rising rates, while under-25 workers are fading from the “new job” pipeline—because apparently the American Dream is now a part-time shift… after you already retired. Add in the usual THS spice: AI hype, crypto whiplash, and the “sensational headlines vs. reality” problem that keeps everyone emotional and nobody informed.

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🔗 Resources:

Retirees are increasingly re-entering the labor market (Hedeye via X)

NEW: Job growth SURGED in January, adding 130,000 total non-farm jobs and 172,000 private sector jobs (Rapid Response 47 via X)

I wouldn’t exhale with today’s job numbers (Mark Zandi via X)

Historic Negative Jobs Revisions: 1 Million Fewer Jobs Added In 2025 (Zero Hedge via X)

2025 Worst Year for U.S. Hiring Since 2003 (Walter Bloomberg via X)

U.S. home prices will be flat in 2026 (Lance Lamber via X)

AI Bubble Reality Check: $285B Rout, Layoffs Incoming, Housing Still Unaffordable

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Markets had a little “AI anxiety attack” this week and Wall Street responded the only way it knows how: smash the sell button and ask questions later. We break down the $285B Anthropic-fueled rout, why the “automation boom” is starting to look like an entry-level job extinction event, and how Big Tech’s data-center dreams are already colliding with tighter financing and very real layoff math (looking at you, Oracle). Then we zoom out to the part nobody wants to talk about at cocktail parties: job cuts flashing red, wages getting blamed for everything, and a housing market that’s still wildly unaffordable because the underlying problem never left — it just changed outfits. Add a little bitcoin weakness for spice, and you’ve got Episode 321: the reality check Wall Street didn’t order, but absolutely needs.

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🔗 Resources:

New Anthropic AI problem (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

Bitcoin Prices Fall Below $75,000 To Reach Fresh 2026 Low (Forbes)

Michael Burry says THIS is Bitcoin’s “death spiral” (Yahoo! Finance)

Oracle plans biggest layoff in years (People Matters via Instagram)

AI is gutting parts of the labor market (Ed Eldon via Instagram)

Anthropic CEO on white collar jobs (AI.Rise.Co via Instagram)

75% of tech jobs are about to disappear (Haris.Sy via Instagram)

Tariff Time Bomb: How War, Inflation & the Fed Are Setting Up the Next Market Shock

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Episode 320 is a reminder that inflation isn’t a mystery and it definitely isn’t caused by your paycheck going up. This one cuts straight through the noise: tariffs aren’t “tough policy,” they’re a hidden tax, war risk isn’t some abstract headline, it’s an inflation accelerant, and the Fed is stuck trying to clean up a fiscal mess it didn’t create. While markets pretend everything is fine, corporate margins sit at historic highs, consumers keep spending, homeowners are insulated, and the cost quietly gets passed down the line. Wages get blamed, voters get distracted, and the money printer stays off-camera. Calm on the surface, pressure underneath... and a tariff time bomb sitting right in the middle of it all.

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🔗 Resources:

American consumers are bearing 96% of tariff costs, study finds (Morning Brew via Instagram)

Tariffs have raised $200,000,000,000 in revenue for the U.S., but… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Consumer sentiment up 2.5 points from December, but… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Elon Musk made his first appearance at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Citi’s CEO Jane Fraser warns staff in memo… (Business Insider via Instagram)

Starbucks jumps after U.S. sales rise for the first time in 2 years… (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Rent concessions are on the rise in American Sunbelt cities… (Wall Street Journal via Instagram)

The ‘Inverse Cramer’ fund launched 3 years ago… (Join Autopilot via Instagram)

Studios’ share of the domestic box office in 2025 (CNBC via Instagram)

Davos Talks, Bond Markets Decide & Jamie Dimon Gets Sassy

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Davos felt like a global ideas conference with elite vibes and thin solutions. AI talk shifted from fear to acceptance, while housing fixes turned into political theater full of carveouts and long-shot proposals. We break down why none of it moves the needle for real affordability, then zoom out to the real story: money, confidence, and a monetary system under pressure. As Ray Dalio warns and gold keeps signaling stress, Treasury yields do the real talking, because when the 10 year moves, everything follows.

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🔗 Resources:

Recklessness is the spending of governments (DiscloseTV via X)

Ray Dalio monetary order is breaking down (Pete Rizzo via X)

Build-to-rent is exempt from White House’s order to 'ban' institutional homebuying (ResiClub)

Understanding institutional landlord Invitation Homes’ new housing market bet (ResiClub)

A 10% cap on credit card rates would be an "economic disaster..." (Yahoo! Finance via X)

Markets Are Breaking While the Fed Is Under Attack

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Markets are doing that thing where everything looks fine until you zoom out and realize risk is quietly pooling in all the wrong places. In this episode of The Higher Standard, we break down why green screens don’t mean healthy markets, how capital is hiding in mega-cap tech, and what our new U.S. Markets Risk Profile and Synthetic Volatility Index reveal about fragility beneath the surface. We unpack the Trump–Fed showdown, why central bank independence actually matters, and how Jamie Dimon’s warning fits into a growing confidence problem. Then we hit housing, where sales are up, prices are easing, rates are moving — and affordability is still broken — before closing on rising consumer stress. This isn’t a market in free fall; it’s a market quietly mispriced on risk.

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🔗 Resources:

A major development in Trump’s Fed feud is set to happen next week in the Supreme Court (CNBC)

Jamie Dimon warns Federal Reserve subpoena 'not a good idea' (Fox Business)

Trump Says Dimon ‘Wrong’ to Criticize DOJ Probe of Fed’s Powell (Bloomberg Law)

Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

Markets Hit Records, Volatility Creeps In & Washington Picks New Fights

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Markets sprinted to record highs, stumbled, and carried on like nothing happened, with the S&P 500 and Dow briefly touching new peaks before financials and energy lost momentum. Oil slid as President Donald Trump floated Venezuelan barrels coming to the U.S., a reminder that geopolitics never stays offstage for long, while stocks rising alongside a climbing VIX signaled positioning, not panic. At the same time, Washington rattled Wall Street landlords with talk of banning institutional buyers from single-family homes, media deal drama flared as Warner Bros. Discovery again swatted away Paramount in favor of Netflix certainty, and the through-line became clear: confidence is still driving the party.

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🔗 Resources:

U.S. Stocks Hit New Highs In Record-Setting Start To The Year (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Dow closes more than 450 points lower, S&P 500 pulls back from record: Live updates (CNBC)

Trump says U.S.oil companies will invest billions of dollars in Venezuela (CNBC via Instagram)

Venezuela instability: market implications (Allianz Global Investors)

Venezuela's Maduro Declares Innocence in NY Court Hearing; Trump Reiterates the U.S. Is 'In Charge' (The Wall Street Journal)

S&P 500 and the VIX Post Gains On the Same Day (Market Watch via Instagram)

US will ban Wall Street investors from buying single-family homes, Trump says (Reuters)

Warner Bros rejects Paramount takeover again and tells shareholders to stick with Netflix bid (Yahoo! Finance)

Everyone Thinks 2026 Stocks Only Go Up — That’s the Problem

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 02:00:00 -0700

Wall Street has apparently reached a group chat consensus: 2026 only goes up. Every major strategist, from big banks to boutique shops, is lined up predicting another year of gains... because after a 90% rally off the 2022 lows, skepticism has officially been benched. Even lifelong bulls are starting to feel uneasy about the total absence of dissent, which historically isn’t exactly when you want everyone pounding the table at once. When pessimism disappears, risk doesn’t... it just gets 'mispriced.'

➡️ Meanwhile, the macro backdrop looks oddly “perfect” on paper and deeply questionable underneath. GDP prints strong, inflation magically cools, housing costs flatline… except a government shutdown quietly forced the data to assume reality took a month off. Add in tariff distortions, election-year volatility, AI bubble anxiety, and a looming funding deadline in Washington, and suddenly the bullish narrative starts to wobble.

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🔗 Resources:

Every Wall Street Analyst Now Predicts a Stock Rally in 2026 (Bloomberg)

The Stock Market Could Soar in 2026 as the Economy Booms Despite President Trump's Tariffs, According to Wall Street (The Motley Fool)

Why This Stock Market Expert Says He’s ‘Cautious’ Heading Into 2026 (Investopedia)

Clock ticking on government funding deadline as House battles other issues (The Hill)

Inflation falls to 2.7% as slower housing and food increases offset a surge in electricity (NBC News)

‘This is a wacky number’: economists cry foul as new government data assumes zero housing inflation in surprising November drop (Fortune)

The Year Money Changed: What 2025 Really Taught Us About Wealth

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 02:00:00 -0700

2025 didn’t hand out cheat codes... it handed out invoices. High interest rates stopped being an abstract headline and started showing up in monthly payments. Cash flow mattered more than net worth screenshots. Emergency funds went from “nice to have” to “you better have one.” And the illusion that buying a home, chasing trends, or riding hype automatically meant progress finally cracked. This wasn’t a year for predictions or gurus. It was a year that quietly punished bad assumptions and rewarded patience, discipline, and realism.

➡️ In our final episode of the year, we strip the noise away and talk honestly about what actually worked, what didn’t, and why financial literacy is no longer optional if you want peace of mind. No forecasts, no sugarcoating, just hard-earned lessons about money, work, investing, and navigating a system that changed faster than most people were ready for. If 2025 taught us anything, it’s this: the rules didn’t disappear. They just stopped being forgiving.

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No homework this week kids.

The Old Way of Getting Rich Is Dead (Here’s What Replaces It In 2026)

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 02:00:00 -0700

If you’ve been feeling frustrated or gaslit about money lately, you’re not crazy, you’re paying attention. If you’re under 40, you lived through zero rates, asset inflation you couldn’t benefit from, a housing boom you were priced out of, and now the highest mortgage rates in decades. The Fed says “maybe one cut,” housing affordability is broken, and the old work hard, save, wait playbook just doesn’t work the way it used to. In this episode, we break down why the anger makes sense... and why it’s rooted in lived experience, not emotion.

➡️ This isn’t a doom episode, it’s a pivot. We talk about where wealth is actually concentrating, why ownership matters more than ever, and what an investing framework looks like in this economy, not the one you were promised. No hopium, no gurus — just clarity. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays from The Higher Standard, and thanks for riding with us this year. 🎄💰

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🔗 Resources:

The Fed sees one rate cut in 2026 (Chart of the Day via Instagram)

A 4.6% unemployment rate (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram )

The U.S Labor Market Has Stalled (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

The Window Manifesto (Markets & Moonshots)

The Fed Cut Rates - So Why Are Mortgage Rates Rising and Layoffs Surging?

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The Fed cut rates… again. And somehow mortgage rates said, “nah, we’re good.” This episode starts where most headlines stop—why markets stopped believing the Fed, why the 10-year Treasury is doing its own thing, and why this might be the last cut anyone feels confident about for a while. We say the quiet part out loud: inflation isn’t dead, liquidity is sneaking back in, and the bond market is signaling something policymakers don’t want to admit yet. Translation: the economy is being held together with optimism and FOMO.

➡️ Then we zoom out to the part no spreadsheet can explain—why people feel broke, burned out, and behind even when they’re “doing everything right.” Layoffs are rising, AI is cutting jobs under the banner of “efficiency,” home prices are slipping, and yet everything still feels more expensive. We talk career minimalism, side hustles, and the realization hitting a lot of Americans: you’re the CEO of your household now, whether you asked for the job or not. The system didn’t break overnight—but it’s asking more from you than it’s giving back.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Cuts Rates Again, Is Divided Over Future Moves (New York Times)

Mortgage rates are surging ahead of the Fed’s expected rate cut. What gives? (Market Watch)

Home prices go negative for the first time in over 2 years (CNBC)

Where homes are losing value most (Axios)

This year’s layoff total is now highest since the pandemic (Morning Brew via Instagram)

HP to cut about 6,000 jobs by 2028, ramps up AI efforts (CNN Business)

Why The ‘Career Minimalism’ Trend Is Spreading Beyond Gen Z (Forbes)

FOMC Countdown: Rate Cut Odds Explode, AI Privacy Nightmare & THS Live

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The boys are back, and this time Jerome Powell shows up looking like he just stepped off the set of Terminator: Rate Cut Salvation. In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil break down why markets are foaming at the mouth for a policy pivot… while conveniently ignoring every economic signal flashing bright orange. From exploding rate-cut odds to the consumer tapping out like they’re on their ninth round of BNPL debt, this one’s a full-speed sprint through the chaos the mainstream financial world desperately pretends isn’t happening.

➡️ Then we take a hard turn into the AI privacy nightmare no one seems ready for, and the kind of tech overreach that makes Skynet look spiritually grounded. You’ll hear why the job market looks strong on the surface but hollow underneath, how corporate America keeps skating by on vibes, and why the average investor is still totally unprepared for what’s coming. It’s sharp, it’s funny, it’s troubling... in other words, it’s The Higher Standard in peak form.

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🔗 Resources:

Why Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei spends so much time warning of AI's potential dangers (CBS News)

The Melt-Up Economy EXPOSED: Fed’s Pivot, AI Jobs DESTROYED & A Recession

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The melt-up economy isn’t a victory lap, it’s the part of the horror movie where everyone thinks the monster is gone because the music gets quiet. Markets keep ripping, consumers keep spending money they don’t have, and the Fed is out here pretending their “pivot” wasn’t telegraphed like an amateur magician revealing the trick before the reveal. And meanwhile, everyone’s acting shocked that AI is destroying jobs when we’ve been screaming for a year that replacing humans with silicon brains might come with a little collateral damage.

➡️ But sure... recession? “What recession?” That’s the vibe. America is basically stress-shopping its way through warning signs big enough to put on billboards. Confidence surveys are collapsing, savings are gone, debt is exploding, and the only thing holding this whole Jenga tower up is hope… and hope is not a strategy we endorse. If a soft landing actually happens, it’ll be the first miracle the Fed has pulled off without breaking something in the process. Buckle up because the data says there is turbulence ahead, even if the captain keeps smiling.

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🔗 Resources:

Polymarket.com

Special Edition: Economic Insight (Stifel)

Mortgage rates dropped this week amid fresh signs of job market weakness (Yahoo! Finance)

Beige Book - November 2025 (Federal Reserve)

US consumer confidence tanks in November as Americans see more financial pain ahead (Yahoo! Finance)

The Housing Market Is Getting DESTROYED, The Fed’s Fake Data & Nvidia’s Fall

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode, Chris and Saied break down one of the strangest weeks in economic news we’ve ever covered: missing jobs data thanks to the government shutdown, a Fed that suddenly sounds like it forgot what “data-dependent” means, and a housing market showing cracks big enough to drive a mortgage banker through. From Zillow quietly admitting half of America’s home values slipped, to builders slashing prices at record levels, to foreclosures quietly creeping up while mortgage lock-ins freeze the market solid — the guys dig into why the “everything is fine” narrative just isn’t matching the numbers.

➡️ But chaos wasn’t limited to housing. Billionaires started bailing on Nvidia like they saw the ending of the AI movie early, Michael Burry essentially rage-quit public filings, and Peter Thiel unloaded his entire stake while VC money keeps ping-ponging between the same five tech giants in the most incestuous loop imaginable. And because this is The Higher Standard, the episode somehow ends with a heated, physics-based debate about whether men should sit or stand when they pee — complete with splash-radius analysis, public-restroom trauma, and a shocking confession about portable butt-gaskets. Peak THS.

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🔗 Resources:

The Fed raises alarm over 'deterioration' in the US housing market (Money Wise)

More than half of US homes lost value in the past year (Yahoo! Finance)

Home values always go up, right? (Nick Gerli via X)

Bill Ackman to unveil plan for mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (Fox Business)

Peter Thiel's fund offloaded Nvidia stake in third quarter, filing shows (Reuters)

Why some elite investors are turning on the darling of the AI rally (CNN Business)

Broken Data, Job Cuts & The Wealth Secrets the Rich Don’t Want You to Know

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil dive face-first into the chaos Washington left behind after the longest government shutdown in U.S. history — and surprise, surprise: the data we rely on to understand the economy might be "permanently broken." With CPI and jobs reports delayed, distorted, or potentially never released at all, the guys unpack what happens when policymakers, investors, and everyday Americans are flying blind. Add in whispers of shadow revisions, missing reports, and political spin, and suddenly “the data is fake” feels less like a meme and more like a macroeconomic red flag.

➡️ But that’s not all. The job market is flashing warnings, the housing market is handing out 50-year mortgages like party favors, and the government’s “we’ll fix it later” approach is aging about as well as a warm gas station sushi roll. Chris and Saied strip away the noise, break down the numbers, and ask the uncomfortable questions no one else wants to touch. If you’re tired of sugar-coated narratives and want the real story behind the headlines, this episode is your financial reality check — delivered with the usual THS wit, skepticism, and a couple of perfectly timed eye rolls.

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🔗 Resources:

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures slip as longest government shutdown in history nears end (Yahoo! Finance)

Karoline Leavitt, White House Press Secretary (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Boston Fed's Collins: The bar for cutting rates further is 'relatively high,' sees holding for 'some time' (Yahoo! Finance)

Bostic announces retirement amid Trump push for more influence over Fed (Reuters)

Housing Recession EXPOSED: Buffett, Zillow & Burry WARN What’s Coming 🚨

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode, Chris, Saied, and Rajeil dive head-first into the fiery mess that is America’s housing market. Where even 0% mortgage rates wouldn’t make homes affordable, and Buffett and Zillow are suddenly on the same side of the doomsday table. From the longest government shutdown in U.S. history to first-time homebuyers now averaging forty (because apparently adulting got delayed a decade), the guys break down why affordability has officially left the chat and how the “Zero Interest Rate Period” turned into the world’s most expensive hangover.

➡️ Then it gets spicy... Michael Burry is back, betting billions against AI and the stock market like it’s 2008 all over again. Meanwhile, Warren Buffett quietly agrees the math no longer works, and The Higher Standard crew connect the dots between social frustration, rising socialism vibes, and a government that can’t even pay its own bills. Equal parts data, sarcasm, and therapy session — this one’s a masterclass in how to laugh through an economic meltdown.

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🔗 Resources:

The US government shutdown (The Kobeissi Letter via X )

US government shutdown enters 36th day to become longest in history (The Guardian)

The profitability of investing in real estate has declined (Nick Gerli via X)

US Median First-Time Homebuyer Age Now at Record-High of 40 (Bloomberg)

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway and Zillow say mortgage rates can’t fall enough for Americans to afford a home (Fortune)

Housing market turnover is at a 30-year low amid real estate deep-freeze (Business Insider)

'Big Short' Michael Burry bet against Palantir and Nvidia (Business Insider)

The Ridiculous Reality Behind the Fed’s Latest Rate Cut

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The Fed says it’s “flying blind,” but somehow keeps reaching for the autopilot. In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris, Saied, and Rajeil break down the latest 25-basis-point rate cut and the confusing logic behind Jerome Powell’s “data-driven” decision-making... made without, well… the data. From the Beige Book to balance-sheet shrinkage (and yes, the jokes write themselves), the guys dissect how the Fed’s moves are shaping jobs, mortgages, and the markets. All while Powell looks like he’s literally in bed with A.I.

➡️ Picture J.P. himself, post-press conference, lounging in a robe, cigarette in hand, with a grinning robot by his side. It’s the perfect metaphor for an economy seduced by artificial intelligence and easy money. Meanwhile the rest of us wonder who’s really in control. The team dives into the absurdity, the economics, and the existential dread of our new robot overlords, all with the wit, sarcasm, and brutal honesty only The Higher Standard can deliver.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Cuts Rates by Another Quarter Point, but Future Cuts Are ‘Far From’ Certain (The Wall Street Journal)

Repo and Reverse Repo Agreements (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

The Brutally Honest Economic Red Flags Nobody’s Ready For

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The red flags are flying high... and no, we’re not talking about your ex. In this episode, Chris and Saied take a brutally honest look at the economic signals that everyone seems determined to ignore. (The Fighting Fijian, Rajeil was on leave for this episode.) From inflation’s sneaky comeback to the quiet unraveling of corporate debt, they break down the numbers, the narratives, and the nonsense behind America’s “everything is fine” façade. If you think the Fed has this under control, buckle up... because history says otherwise.

➡️ But this isn’t your average doomscroll session. The guys go beyond the headlines to unpack how these warning signs actually affect you: your job, your mortgage, your portfolio, and your peace of mind. Expect laughs, data, and the kind of truth bombs only The Higher Standard delivers. It’s real talk about the economy without the jargon, hype, or 'hopium'... just a clear-eyed look at the meltdown we might already be living through.

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🔗 Resources:

Regional bank stocks are sliding again (EndGame Macro via X)

The alleged ‘sweeping betrayal of trust’ that rocked Zions bank and spooked Wall Street (CNBC)

More Americans are falling behind on their auto loan payments. Here's why. (CBS News)

Percentage home price declines from their respective highs in prior years (Darth Powell via X)

Gold climbs on rate-cut bets, broader uncertainty; investors eye US-China trade talks (Reuters)

Disney Needs One Franchise To Return After Tron: Ares' Box Office Failure (Screen Rant)

Why are many of the year’s buzziest films failing to make a profit at the box office? (Variety)

Exposing Fake Gurus: Brutally Honest Breakdown of Social Media Scammers

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 02:00:00 -0700

When someone looks too good to be true online, they probably are! And we’re putting that theory to the test. In this episode, Chris, Saied, and Rajeil invite listeners to submit the Instagram handles of “professionals” who might just be full-time finessers in disguise. From fake real estate moguls to lifestyle coaches with mysteriously rented Lambos, the crew breaks down how to spot a scammer before your wallet does.

➡️ But this isn’t just about calling out nonsense, it’s about teaching you how to separate the signal from the scam. The hosts dissect why so many people fall for polished frauds, the psychology of digital deception, and how clout has become the new currency of credibility. It’s part social experiment, part financial intervention, and fully hilarious.

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🔗 Resources:

We don't link to scammers.

The Brutal Honest Truth About An AI Bubble: How Private Equity Will Destroy the Market

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Artificial Intelligence has gone off the rails, private equity’s running out of cash, and venture capital’s throwing billions at anything with a “A.I.” in the name... welcome to Episode 304. Chris, Saied, and Rajeil unpack how Sora 2.0 just erased the line between real and fake, how 41 stocks now make up nearly half the S&P 500, and why every startup pitch sounds like a bad ChatGPT prompt. Sprinkle in a dash of market concentration risk, a splash of FOMO-fueled insanity, and you’ve got a recipe for the next great bubble.

➡️ But the gang doesn’t stop there. They dig into the dark side of private equity: the vintage funds running on fumes, the liquidity crunch nobody wants to admit, and what happens when inflated A.I. valuations meet leveraged balance sheets. Mix in a little immature humor, a few uncomfortable truths, and the kind of laughter that comes right before the crash, and you’ve got the brutally honest breakdown only The Higher Standard can deliver.

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🔗 Resources:

How Much of the S&P 500 Is AI Related Stocks? (Jim Bianco via X)

Venture capitalists have poured a record $192.7 billion into AI startups YTD (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Private equity in general is totally hosed (The All-In Podcast via X)

Why The Great Wealth Transfer is a LIE

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Everyone keeps talking about the “Great Wealth Transfer” like it’s some mythical pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. But here’s the reality: the rich aren’t exactly lining up to hand you their keys to the kingdom. Between tax loopholes, estate strategies, and the fact that most heirs are just as debt-happy as everyone else, the so-called wealth transfer looks more like a magician’s sleight of hand than a generational payday. Spoiler: if you’re waiting around for this miracle to hit your bank account, you’re going to be waiting a very long time.

➡️ In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil tear into the headlines, decode the market noise, and break down why the “great wealth transfer” narrative is just another shiny distraction. From volatility bets on Wall Street to the political circus surrounding a potential government shutdown, we cut through the hype with a mix of cold, hard facts and the occasional sarcasm that CNBC can’t deliver.

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🔗 Resources:

US households have massive exposure to equities (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Renting is no longer just a stepping stone for young 20-somethings (Amy Nixon via X)

The bottom 50% of U.S. households have historically had little exposure to stocks (Stock Market News via X)

Rise of the ‘Accidental Landlords’ Is Bad News for Investors Who Bet Big on Rentals (The Wall Street Journal)

By the end of Q4 2025, there will be more 6% mortgages than sub-3% mortgages (Nick Gerli via X)

Housing Market Reality Check: New Home Sales Hype & Buffett Indicator Warning

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The headlines are screaming “Housing Boom,” but we’re here to ask—boom for who? In episode 302 of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied cut through the CNBC hype, breaking down why those shiny new home sales numbers don’t tell the whole story. Spoiler: it’s not buyers suddenly feeling rich, it’s builders slashing prices and handing out incentives like Halloween candy. From Lennar’s margins getting crushed, to the wild affordability math that shows just how far we’ve drifted from reality, the housing market isn’t booming—it’s bargaining.

➡️ But housing isn’t the only thing flashing red. Powell’s latest speech, a youth unemployment spike that should terrify policymakers, and the Buffett Indicator screaming “overvalued” louder than ever, all collide in one jam-packed week of economic chaos. Add in a record-breaking concentration of power in the Magnificent 7 stocks, and you’ve got a market that looks more like Vegas than Wall Street. No fluff, no sugarcoating—just the unfiltered breakdown you’ve come to expect from The Higher Standard.

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🔗 Resources:

New home sales soar 20% in August to a three-year high (CNBC)

2024 Fannie Mae home price affordability (Lance Lambert via X)

Lennar’s gross margin on home sales (Lance Lambert via X )

Lennar is showing you what has to happen in the housing market to drive sales (Nick Gerli via X)

The two largest residential real estate brokerage are combining (Lance Lambert via X)

Shocking stat of the day (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Buffett Indicator (Current Market Valuation)

Fed Cuts Rates Markets Soar, Middle Class Squeezed & Side Hustles Surge

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The Fed finally pulled the trigger on its first rate cut of the year, but before you pop champagne, let’s ask the real question: who actually benefits? Wall Street’s partying like it’s 1999, the top 10% are still swiping cards like money grows on trees, and Jerome Powell is out here trying to convince everyone the house isn’t on fire. Meanwhile, middle-class families are staring down credit card bills, mortgages, and a job market that feels more like musical chairs with fewer chairs every month.

➡️ We’re breaking down the “two-tier economy” McDonald’s CEO warned about, why mortgage refis just spiked harder than a college frat party, and how side hustles have gone from optional to survival gear for millions of Americans. This isn’t CNBC soundbites or sugar-coated headlines — it’s The Higher Standard, where we strip the spin, call out the nonsense, and give you the real story behind the Fed’s move.

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🔗 Resources:

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year (NBC News)

The top 10% of income earners in the US now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, a record high (Charlie Bilello via X)

Mortgage refinance demand spikes nearly 60%, as interest rates drop sharply (CNBC)

Recession risk remains uncomfortably high (Mark Zandi via X)

38% of Americans have taken on jobs to cover debts — how the rise of the reluctant hustler is rewiring careers (Money Wise)

Jobs Shock, Stagflation Fears & Robinhood’s Big Bet

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Three hundred episodes in and the Fed is still the main character. In this milestone episode, Chris, Saied, and Rajeil dissect Jerome Powell’s latest balancing act — walking the tightrope between cooling inflation and keeping the jobs market afloat. The crew pulls apart the latest employment data, digging into what the numbers really say versus the spin you’re being sold.

➡️ And just when you thought Wall Street was enough of a circus, Robinhood steps back into the spotlight with its latest moves — proving once again that retail trading isn’t just about apps and charts, it’s about influence and psychology. Episode 300 delivers exactly what you’d expect from The Higher Standard: sharp analysis, sarcasm that stings, and the kind of perspective you won’t get from the talking heads on TV.

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🔗 Resources:

US judge temporarily blocks Trump from removing Fed Governor Cook (Reuters)

Job Revisions and the Trump Economy (Wall Street Journal)

Stagflation jitters grow after steepest jobs downgrade in decades (Yahoo! Finance)

Stagflation: 5 signs that economy's worst-case scenario is inching closer (Business Insider)

Robinhood Aims Social Platform at Reddit’s WallStreetBets (Bloomberg via Yahoo! Finance)

Markets Already Betting on Fed Cuts... Here’s What You Need to Know

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 02:00:00 -0700

This episode of The Higher Standard is a cocktail of Fed-watching, real talk, and the kind of banter only we can pull off. Chris, Saied, and Rajeil rip into the upcoming FOMC meeting, breaking down why a rate cut is basically baked in and why the real drama is all about Powell’s spin at the mic. We cover everything from nonfarm payroll revisions to bond market chess moves, and even take a detour into real estate Twitter beefs that prove “demand without affordability is not demand.” If you’ve ever wanted to know how politics, Wall Street, and your mortgage payment all collide in one giant economic soap opera, this one’s for you.

➡️ But don’t get it twisted. We still find time to roast bad reviews, gossip about Leonardo DiCaprio’s dating strategy, and debate whether OnlyFans has an app (spoiler: it doesn’t). There’s merch talk, newsletter hacks, and the occasional foot fetish confession. By the time we wrap, you’ll know why Powell’s ties matter, why housing prices feel like Lamborghinis, and why episode 300 might just involve port wine, air mattresses, and regrettable decisions. Welcome to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world where economics meets entertainment, and we somehow make both make sense.

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🔗 Resources:

FedWatch (Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group)

Higher 'core' inflation reading unlikely to knock Fed off course for rate cut in September (Yahoo! Finance)

Can Trump Fire Lisa Cook? Rate-Cut Pressure, Jackson Hole & Apple’s AI

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 02:00:00 -0700

We open light... Amex perks, Saks talk, and Chris’ infamous “no flip-flops” code—then slam straight into the heavy stuff: a President publicly leaning on the Fed to cut rates and targeting Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations. Can a President remove a Fed official “for cause”? We unpack the precedent, the legal gray, and why Fed independenceactually matters. Plus, Powell’s Jackson Hole comments and how a few words swung rate-cut odds—and markets—fast.

➡️ Then we zoom out: what politicized monetary policy means for investors, borrowers, and the election-year economy. Finally, a sharp turn into tech: Apple’s puzzling strategy (a thinner iPhone—really?) versus the real arms race—AI. We debate foldables, whether Apple will plug in third-party AI (ChatGPT or Google), and why the next big leap has to be usefulness, not just sleekness. Keywords you’ll care about: Trump vs the Fed, Lisa Cook, rate cuts, Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole, Apple, iPhone, AI.

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🔗 Resources:

Money grows on the tree of persistence. —Japanese proverb

Trump vs The Fed: Mortgage Fraud Scandal Could Shake Wall Street

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 02:00:00 -0700

When Trump tells a Fed governor to resign over “mortgage fraud,” you know it’s not about the mortgage. In this episode, Chris, Saied, and Rajeil peel back the layers on political theater, headline manipulation, and the not-so-subtle art of bullying the Fed. From LBJ literally grabbing his Fed chair by the lapels to Nixon strong-arming rates before an election, the crew shows how history repeats itself — only now, the stage is Twitter and Truth Social instead of Texas ranches and secret tapes.

➡️ But this isn’t just about politics. It’s about how perception drives markets more than policy — and why mortgage fraud isn’t always the Wall Street-sized scandal it sounds like. The guys break down what “occupancy fraud” really means, why banks often look the other way, and how weaponizing technicalities against political opponents cheapens the entire system. Add in some comedy about red-eye flights, cream-cheese pretzels, and fried chicken ice cream, and you’ve got classic THS: irreverent, unfiltered, and just educational enough to make you dangerous at your next dinner party.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed governor Cook responds after President Trump says she 'must resign' (Yahoo! Finance)

Fed Found Over 22,000 Mortgages Like Those Pulte Is Flagging (Bloomberg)

What Is Mortgage Occupancy Fraud, the Claim Wielded by the Trump Administration? (Wall Street Journal)

The Fed’s $2 Trillion Secret: Reverse Repo Explained

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 02:00:00 -0700

This episode of The Higher Standard pulls back the curtain on the Fed’s $2 trillion “magic trick” that never makes the headlines. Chris, Saied, and Rajeil break down how the overnight reverse repo facility works like a no-risk money parking garage for banks—one so massive it once held enough cash to buy every home in New York City twice. Add in a little history lesson on the Fed literally locking away gold in the 1930s to keep money out of circulation, and you’ve got a playbook of hidden levers that shape the economy while the average person is left scratching their head. Spoiler: it’s less about Main Street and more about keeping Wall Street on life support.

➡️ But this isn’t just charts and jargon—expect sushi horror stories, octopus debates, Hulk Hogan controversies, and even a detour into alien tech possibly cruising toward Earth (thanks, Harvard). The crew wrestles with the big question: are these financial maneuvers protecting consumers, or just quietly bailing out the system? Either way, the laughs hit as hard as the lessons. Welcome back to the only financial literacy podcast that can connect the Fed’s shadow moves to turtle mating rituals without missing a beat.

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🔗 Resources:

Comet 3I/ATLAS (Nasa)

Hulk Hogan listening to Young Jeezy (YouTube)

School Failed You, Your Job Failed You & So Did Conventional Wisdom

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris, Saied and Rajeil pull no punches in dissecting how the system is built to keep you running on a hamster wheel you didn’t even know you were on. From the wage stagnation that’s been silently robbing you for decades to the way debt culture is disguised as “financial freedom,” the guys lay out the unvarnished truth: the playbook you’ve been following was never designed for you to win. Expect sharp takes, brutal stats, and enough “wait, what?!” moments to make you question every money decision you’ve made since high school.

➡️ But it’s not all doomscrolling for your wallet, there’s a way out, and this episode draws you the map. Chris and Saied break down how ownership, leverage, and developing high-value skills can flip the script, giving you the same advantages the wealthy have been exploiting for years. Think of it as financial red-pilling: once you see it, you can’t unsee it. And once you act on it, you’re done playing the role of economic background character - you’re in the driver’s seat.

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🔗 Resources:

“The poor and the middle class work for money. The rich have money work for them.” -Robert Kiyosaki

Curtis Lorincz | Exposing the Guru Grift: One Man vs. The Cult of Bro Culture

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 02:00:00 -0700

What happens when a straight-shooting car guy with zero patience for bullshit takes on the loudest, most insecure bros on the internet? You get Curtis Lorincz — the viral voice calling out fake gurus, bro culture, and “number one car salesman” fantasies with nothing but a phone and the truth. In this episode, Curtis joins Chris and Rajeil to unpack how obedience gets monetized, why yelling at men isn’t motivation, and what really goes on behind those cringey sales events with VIP dinner upgrades and God-tier grifting.

➡️ From $6,000 podcast invites to baptism-by-course-selling, this one pulls no punches. We talk Andy Elliott, Grant Cardone, Ryan Pineda, and the shady playbook behind monetized masculinity. If you’ve ever side-eyed a rented Lambo or rolled your eyes at “faith-based business coaching,” buckle up. Curtis is here to torch the cult — and he's bringing receipts.

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🔗 Curtis Lorincz's Links:

Personal Instagram

H&S Motocars Website

How Corporate America Broke the Social Contract: Wages Down, Debt Up, Loyalty Dead

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this no-holds-barred episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied dissect the death of the American Dream through a lens only they can provide—one that blends biting humor with financial clarity. Picking up where episode 291 left off, they explore how corporate America broke the social contract: wages are down, debt is up, and company loyalty is officially dead. Chris opens up about his recent exit from corporate life, shedding light on how fear and financial insecurity trap most people in a cycle of compliance. From housing market madness to the real reason Jerome Powell wears purple ties, this one peels back the curtain on power, policy, and personal freedom.

➡️ But it’s not all doom and gloom. The crew also dives deep into what actually builds wealth—ownership, autonomy, and making your money work for you. They dismantle the myth that hard work alone gets you ahead, spotlighting the tax code’s favoritism toward business owners and investors over W2 employees. You'll hear stories of immigrant grit, generational wisdom, and why even your lemonade-stand-running kid might have a brighter financial future than most adults. If you’ve ever traded time for money or questioned the rat race, this episode is your wake-up call.

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🔗 Resources:

“If you don’t find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die.” -Warren Buffett

Jason Lu | From Taiwan to Streetwear Stardom: The Journey With Pleasures & Beyond

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 02:00:00 -0700

🎙️ From grinding in a Taiwanese music studio for 12-hour days to running operations at one of the hottest streetwear brands on the planet, Jason Lu has lived a story most people wouldn’t believe — and probably couldn’t survive. In this episode, Chris sits down with Jason to talk about the reality behind the hype: grueling work, brutal lessons, and how authenticity can cut through a crowded, noisy industry.

➡️ From the early days of SoundCloud rappers and “blood money” merch to collaborating with On Running and dressing NBA players, Jason pulls back the curtain on what it really takes to make it in music, merch, and fashion.

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🔗 Jason Lu's Links:

Personal Instagram

Pleasures Website

The Education Scam: Why You’re Not Rich (And Never Were Meant To Be)

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Most of us grew up believing school was our golden ticket — a noble path to knowledge, success, and the elusive American Dream. Turns out, that dream was engineered to keep you obedient, predictable, and poor. In this episode, Chris, Saied, and Rajeel peel back the curtain on the greatest con ever run on the masses: the education system. With wit, fire, and a touch of irreverence, they trace the origins of modern schooling to the Prussian model — a system deliberately designed to churn out soldiers, compliant workers, and docile consumers for industrialists like Rockefeller and Carnegie. It’s not a bug. It’s the feature.

➡️ We break down how the very structure of school — from its bells and rows to its obsession with grades — trains you to tolerate boredom, obey authority, and measure your worth by someone else’s approval. If you’ve ever wondered why entrepreneurship feels foreign, risk feels scary, and freedom feels unattainable, this is your wake-up call. The machine that conditioned you doesn’t even exist anymore, yet it’s still teaching you to fit in and punishing you if you don’t. Tune in as we expose the scam, laugh through the pain, and (most importantly) show you how to unlearn the lies — for yourself and your kids.

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🔗 Resources:

The Underground History of American Education, Volume I: An Intimate Investigation Into the Prison of Modern Schooling (Amazon)

Matt Moghaddam | The Reality of Social Media, Small Business & Big Dreams

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Ever wonder how a kid rebuilding engines in his dad’s garage ends up shaping the off-road and Overland industries while dodging influencer clichés and crushing corporate glass ceilings? In this episode, Chris sits down with Matt Moghaddam — creative, entrepreneur, and all-around gearhead — to talk about his journey from customer service grunt to marketing director to magazine editor. From building Mustangs and Tacomas to navigating the Wild West of social media and brand deals, Matt reveals what it really takes to turn a passion into a career without losing your sanity (or your suspension).

➡️ We unpack why nobody actually “has it all figured out,” why the Overland craze may have peaked (and how to score a rooftop tent on Facebook Marketplace), and why growing too fast can ruin even the best business. Plus: customer service horror stories, Nordstrom tales, influencer marketing gripes, and how Larry the Cockroach became a studio mascot. If you’ve ever thought about quitting your day job to chase a dream — or just wondered where all those Sprinter vans went — this one’s for you.

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🔗 Parsa Vahid's Links:

Personal Instagram

The Fragile Mirage of Economic Recovery

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The U.S. economy is sending more mixed signals than a Gen Z relationship status. One minute, the S&P 500 is flirting with all-time highs, the next, the housing market's giving you whiplash with record prices and signs of a downturn. Is it a buyer’s market? Depends who you ask—and what city you’re in. Meanwhile, if you’ve been financing burritos with Buy Now, Pay Later, congratulations: it's now officially affecting your credit score. That’s right—your lunchtime debt just got real.

➡️ This episode is the financial equivalent of trying to read the tea leaves during a hurricane. The stock market’s partying like it’s 1999, Bitcoin is soaring on dollar weakness, and the Fed is quietly pretending they don’t see any of it. Plus, Jeff Bezos has a foam party on a yacht, and somehow that ties into prenups, choice-of-law clauses, and Chris being petty about FaceTime etiquette. Yeah, we went there.

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🔗 Resources:

Stunning turnaround: The stock market is on the precipice of an all-time record (CNN)

The US Treasury posted a $316 billion budget deficit in May (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

U.S. Home Prices Hit Record High (The Real Deal via Instagram)

The housing downturn is broadening (Nick Gerli via X)

Bitcoin Price Rises. These 2 Things Are Driving Crypto Higher (Barron’s)

Nearly Two Million Student-Loan Borrowers Are at Risk of Docked Pay This Summer (The Wall Street Journal)

Inside the Complex and Petty Prenups of the Superwealthy (The Wall Street Journal)

Parsa Vahid | From Broke Engineer to Manages Hundreds of Millions

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 02:00:00 -0700

What does it take to walk away from a stable career in engineering and build a boutique wealth advisory firm that manages hundreds of millions? In this episode, Chris and Saied sit down with Parsa Vahid, founder of Strand Life, to unpack that exact journey — from cold calls and 100% commission work to becoming the trusted financial strategist for high-net-worth families. Parsa shares how he navigated the pressure of legacy expectations, ditched a career that didn’t fit, and leaned into building a firm that handles everything from investments and tax planning to estate structures designed to protect families from, well… their own kids.

➡️ This one goes deep into the real mechanics of building wealth — not just for yourself, but for generations. You’ll hear candid takes on how most advisors fall short, what red flags to watch out for, and why financial literacy gaps don’t magically disappear when you hit seven figures. Whether you're trying to decide when to hire an advisor, how to leave your safe job, or what happens when you leave a windfall to someone wildly unprepared, this episode will make you think — and maybe even rethink your whole plan.

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🔗 Parsa Vahid's Links:

Business Website

Business Instagram

Personal Instagram

The Fed Held Rates, But Will War With Iran Trigger a Recession?

Sun, 22 Jun 2025 08:45:00 -0700

The Fed held rates steady — again — and while that might not sound sexy, it triggered a deep dive into the uncomfortable parallels between today’s economy and some of history’s most turbulent wartime recessions. Chris and Saied unpack Powell’s post-FOMC “dot plot shuffle,” exposing how forward guidance has become a PR game instead of a reliable economic compass. Spoiler: if you think shelter inflation is cooling fast, you’re probably still using a 3G data plan.

➡️ From Operation Iraqi Freedom to drone-led wars of tomorrow, the guys explore how conflict has become a recession trap — and not the kind that you wan to get stuck in. With unemployment lagging recession signals and AI creeping into defense strategy, the conversation gets heavy, insightful, and just the right amount of unhinged. Plus, if the U.S. government needs a Microsoft BI subscription to speed up their shelter data, Chris offers to cover it himself. That’s service.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Holds Rates Steady and Keeps Door Open to Cuts (Wall Street Journal)

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank is beginning to see the price impacts of tariffs (CNBC via Instagram)

Farshad Dehbozorgi | Clubs, TikTok & How Millions of Views Turned Him In To a Lawyer

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, we’re joined by viral sensation turned courtroom assassin, Farshad Dehbozorgi, Esq. — or as we like to call him, “The Club-to-Courtroom Closer.” We dig into his unlikely journey from viral TikToks and bottle service to bar prep and building a boutique law firm. If you’ve ever wondered how roasting your wife online could land you a law license, this one’s for you.

➡️ Chris, Saied, Rajeil and Farshad get real about the grind of content creation, the misconceptions around being a creator, and how law, social media, and outrageous honesty can collide in one man’s career. From being mistaken for a nightclub promoter to now negotiating with insurance companies and personal injury clients, Farshad proves that you really can go from “likes” to litigation — if you’re bold (and delusional) enough.

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🔗 Farshad Dehbozorgi's Links:

Dimon Drops Bombs, Powell Plays Defense, & Housing Still Hurts

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Jerome met Trump, Trump yelled "Cut Rates," and Powell clutched his “Data Dependent” sign like a life raft. In this episode, Chris, Saied and Rajeil dissect the political theater behind a rare Oval Office showdown between the Fed Chair and the former President. Spoiler: Jamie Dimon’s lurking in the background muttering “I told you so,” and Uncle Elon’s possibly staging a PR divorce from Trump just to win back California Tesla buyers. The guys break it all down — from media optics to real economic implications — with sarcasm, stats, and side-eyes.

➡️ Plus, the housing market's got more cracks than your uncle’s drywall job. A record-breaking gap between sellers and buyers has the guys asking if affordability is even real anymore, or just something we say to feel better. Sprinkle in some hard truths about wage stagnation, a cameo from Saied’s son Adam (who steals the show), and a breakdown of why “the American dream” now requires a \$300K salary and a therapist. This one hits hard — and hits funny.

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🔗 Resources:

Trump meets with Powell, tells him it's a 'mistake' not to lower rates (Yahoo! Finance)

‘It Is Going to Happen’: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Warns of Crack in the Bond Market (Barron's)

Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers in Record Numbers. Here's What It Means for Home Prices (Entrepreneur)

This is why Jamie Dimon is always so gloomy on the economy (CNBC)

Inflation rate slipped to 2.1% in April, lower than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows (CNBC)

The No. 1 skill to teach your kid ‘as early as possible,’ says psychology expert—they’ll be successful at ‘pretty much everything’ (CNBC Make It)

Jeff Fargo | The Truth About Bought Followers, Bot Engagement & Podcast Fame

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris welcomes longtime friend and digital strategist Jeff Fargo into the freshly minted Black Crown Studios—and it’s not just a tour, it’s a masterclass in podcasting authenticity. The two chop it up over everything from DIY sound treatment and the obsessive details of studio design to how podcasting unexpectedly hijacked both their lives. But don’t let the good vibes fool you. Jeff comes with receipts—calling out fake engagement, bought followers, and the darker side of podcasting’s growth hacks. If you’ve ever wondered how to spot a real digital presence from a rented Lambo flex, this one’s for you.

➡️ But this isn’t just a roast session—it’s a revealing look into the heart of real content creators. Chris and Jeff break down everything from fatherhood and financial freedom to algorithm secrets and viral hits, like Jeff’s 8.3 million–view clip on Vegas strip clubs. You'll hear Jeff drop gems on how to use Social Blade, why brand trust is everything, and why he believes podcast growth is like compound interest. Add in Saied’s silent sniper contributions and a whole lot of witty one-liners, and you’ve got yourself a high-value hangout with two guys who give a damn—and aren’t afraid to say it.

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🔗 Jeff Fargo's Links:

Jeff's Instagram

Fargo Talks Instagram

Jeff's TikTok

Jeff's LinkedIn

Jeff's Facebook

Fargo Talks X (formerly Twitter)

Fargo Talks Website

Fargo Talks on Spotify

Fargo Talks on Apple Podcasts

Fargo Talks YouTube Channel

Credit Downgrade Chaos, Mortgage Madness & a Fijian

Tue, 27 May 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this high-octane episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied officially welcome Rajeil to the show—and initiate him with a healthy dose of sarcasm and button-pushing. They hop right in to Moody’s U.S. credit downgrade. What does it mean when Uncle Sam takes a hit to his credit score? It’s not just a bad look—it signals rising debt, inflation, and interest payments spiraling out of control. With 30-year mortgage rates back above 7%, the crew dives into why your rate acts more like a moody teenager than a constant, and how the 10-year Treasury is the true puppet master behind housing affordability.

➡️ But wait—there’s more. Chris explains why your home isn’t an investment, it's a utility (no, you can’t charge rent to your shower), and why “marry the house, date the rate” is advice best left in 2019. The guys talk taxes and why today’s housing market may be the most unaffordable in U.S. history—yes, even worse than 2006. Whether you’re scraping by on Top Ramen or flexing your broker’s license, this episode delivers a reality check wrapped in a warm tortilla of wit and wisdom.

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🔗 Resources:

Moody's downgraded US credit rating: What does that mean? (Fox Business)

Mortgage rates climb back above 7% after Moody's U.S. debt downgrade (CBS News)

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 7.08% (Lance Lambert via X)

The housing market has never been this unaffordable in U.S. history. (Nick Gerli via X)

Consumer Sentiment Hits Second Lowest Level On Record (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

U.S. Tariff Revenue Soars To Record High In April (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Inflation Was Stubborn Ahead Of Tariffs (Investopedia via Instagram)

Pejman Ghadimi | Exotic Car Hacks, Cash & Consciousness

Tue, 20 May 2025 02:00:00 -0700

What happens when you bring Pejman Ghadimi, the man who turned hacking exotic cars into a six-figure side hustle for thousands, onto The Higher Standard? You get a masterclass in how society has sold us a broken narrative about wealth, success, and “playing it safe.” With Saied riding shotgun at the production desk, Chris pulls back the curtain on Pejman’s wildly polarizing—but undeniably effective—philosophy that challenges everything you thought you knew about finance, personal growth, and chasing your dreams without going broke. From flipping Ferraris for profit to dismantling the myth of the American Dream, nothing was off-limits in this unfiltered conversation.

➡️ Pejman takes us on a journey through his evolution—from broke immigrant to corporate banker, and ultimately to building his own empire teaching everyday people how to turn luxury assets like watches and cars into investment vehicles. Along the way, the guys dive deep into why most people are addicted to being told what to do, why external validation is a prison, and why true freedom comes from taking uncomfortable, messy action. This is the episode that will either make you curious enough to level up—or angry enough to stay exactly where you are. Either way, you’ve been warned.

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🔗 Pejman Ghadimi's Links:

Exotic Car Hacks Instagram

Exotic Car Hacks YouTube

Watch Trading Academy

Watch Trading Academy Instagram

Watch Trading Academy YouTube

Warren Buffett Retires, Powell Holds Rates, & GDP Turns Negative

Tue, 13 May 2025 02:00:00 -0700

You’ve heard the headlines, but we’re here to break down what they really mean for your wallet. In this episode, Warren Buffett officially announces his retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, Jerome Powell leaves rates untouched (again), and America’s GDP takes a nose dive into negative territory. Meanwhile, the media spins, Wall Street panics, and your buddy on Instagram who just discovered ETFs is suddenly an "economic expert." Don’t worry, we’ve got the real story—served fresh, with a side of wit and sarcasm.

➡️ But that’s not all. We’re diving into the housing market that still refuses to correct, student loan garnishments that are coming for your paycheck, and why UPS is laying off 20,000 people after parting ways with Amazon. Oh, and AI is officially eating white-collar jobs for breakfast—so there’s that. Grab your favorite overpriced latte, sit back, and let Chris and Saied help you navigate the chaos with facts, jokes, and just enough cynicism to keep it fun. Welcome to The Higher Standard.

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🔗 Resources:

Q1 GDP Goes Negative On Imports Surge (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Existing homes sales are at multi-decade low (Nick Gerli via X)

Trump administration restarts student loan collections for millions in default after years-long pause (CNBC)

UPS to Cut 20,000 Jobs After Amazon Breakup (Wall Street Journal)

Warren Buffett is not retiring for good as Berkshire board votes to keep him as chairman (CNBC)

A Bittersweet Farewell: Reflecting On Our Journey

Tue, 06 May 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Welcome to a milestone episode of The Higher Standard — our final recording in the studio that saw it all: hot takes, financial rants, emotional confessions, and at least one broken mic stand. In this sendoff, Chris and Saied wax poetic (and sarcastic) about the evolution of the show, what it took to build the brand from a neon-lit cave to a next-gen recording fortress, and why growth — both personal and professional — sometimes requires saying goodbye to comfort. If these walls could talk, they’d probably file for workers’ comp.

➡️ But this isn’t just a trip down memory lane. We tackle the uncomfortable realities of volatility in today’s markets, the rise of AI’s takeover of traditional labor, and how to stay grounded when the ground keeps shifting. It’s a mix of tough love, real talk, and a little nostalgia — delivered in our signature style: punchy, unfiltered, and mildly inappropriate. Buckle up. The future is now, and it’s got better lighting.

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🔗 Resources:

We aren't crying, you're crying...

Equity, Debt, & The Volatile Future of Home Ownership

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take a wrecking ball to the myths of modern homeownership—armed with caffeine, sarcasm, and a well-earned chip on their shoulder. From the Fed’s tightrope act to the slow-motion implosion of consumer confidence, they unpack the real estate market’s latest mood swings, including a 5.9% drop in existing home sales and why homebuilder incentives might not be the golden ticket they appear to be. Whether it’s mortgage points, ARMs, or the lock-in effect, the guys explain how debt, equity, and psychology are shaping a volatile new paradigm for aspiring homeowners.

➡️ But wait—this isn’t just economic therapy. It’s also gym confessions, cold plunges, burrito-based diet plans, and a hard truth: you’re probably not timing the market better than Warren Buffett. The duo dives into the dangers of being house poor, why your credit score isn’t as accurate as you think, and why buying a home should be more about life fit than market timing. If you’ve ever wondered whether intermittent fasting, lifting routines, and homeownership prep could be discussed in the same breath, buckle up. This is The Higher Standard—where financial literacy meets real-life chaos and a lot of unsolicited fitness advice.

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🧊 Get 12% off any purchase at Ice Barrel (Excludes chillers)

🔗 Resources:

March home sales drop to their slowest pace since 2009 (CNBC)

Tariffs, Tumbling Tech & The Fed’s Tightrope

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Jerome Powell might be the only man in America who can tank the stock market and calm it down—all in the same sentence. In this episode, Chris and Saied break down Powell’s most recent cryptic speech (complete with purple tie and Fed-speak flair) and explain why the central bank is stalling like your friend who won’t define the relationship. With tariffs looming like a bad sequel and markets reacting like it’s a rollercoaster sponsored by Dramamine, the guys dive into the real question: Is this a dip… or just indigestion?

➡️ Meanwhile, Nvidia is catching strays, Netflix is crushing it in a recession (because apparently we all just want to binge and cry), and retail sales are peaking like everyone rushed to buy a car before the tariff guillotine drops. Throw in a McLaren parked in general population, some spicy banter about floppy-wrist jump shots, and a side of Zaddy Zandi recession forecasts, and you’ve got an episode that’s equal parts economic insight and comedy gold. Pull up, pour a cold brew, and don’t forget your gooseneck.

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🔗 Resources:

Powell sees 'challenging scenario' for Fed if Trump tariffs stoke inflation and slow growth (Yahoo! Finance)

Stock market today: Dow slides as UnitedHealth plunges, Nasdaq, S&P 500 sputter to end down week (Yahoo! Finance)

Netflix stock rises after earnings, outlook top Wall Street forecasts (Yahoo! Finance)

Recession 'more likely than not' if trade war keeps escalating (Yahoo! Finance)

Tariff Chaos, Market Meltdowns & Why This Economy Feels So Broken

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 02:00:00 -0700

With the market in full-blown tantrum mode—thanks to headline whiplash over tariffs, Fed drama, and bond sell-offs—we decided it was time to do the unthinkable: relax. That’s right. This week, your favorite duo dials back the financial fear porn to take a breather from the endless stream of doomsday news. Don’t worry, we still dissect what happened in the markets, how Treasury yields spiked like your heart rate reading economic headlines, and why even Jerome Powell might be asking for a mental health day. But we also peel back the curtain a bit on how we cope with it all, why taking a step back can be the smartest move you make, and how to avoid becoming another casualty of financial anxiety.

➡️ This one isn’t about panic—it’s about perspective. We break down what’s real, what’s performative, and why everyone suddenly thinks they’re an expert on the VIX. Plus, Chris has a few spicy thoughts on media overreach and Saied waxes poetic about cortisol (again). If you’re looking for a much-needed reset with just enough macro to keep your edge—this episode is your serotonin shot with a side of smarts.

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🔗 Resources:

Nah. This time, we’re skipping the citations and giving you permission to stop doom-scrolling and just vibe. Not every episode needs a thesis and footnotes—sometimes, it’s okay to laugh, breathe, and admit we’re all just trying to figure it out.

The Art of the Tariff: Trump Shakes the Global Trade Table

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Chris Naghibi and Saied Omar toss aside their planned topics faster than a politician dodging a question to tackle the economic grenade President Trump just lobbed: tariffs. And not just any tariffs—reciprocal tariffs with the subtlety of a wrecking ball. With import taxes soaring as high as 49%, countries like China, India, and the EU are basically being told, “Nice try, but America first.” As global markets went into panic mode, futures took a nosedive, and investors clutched their portfolios like toddlers clinging to their blankies.

➡️ But fear not—Chris and Saied break it all down with historical flair (hello, Smoot-Hawley), modern spice, and a side of "WTF just happened to the stock market?" They explore the ripple effects on jobs, car prices (RIP affordable Jeeps), and even what this might mean for that imported espresso machine you were eyeing. If you’ve ever wondered how tariffs could impact your wallet, your 401(k), and your stress levels all at once, this episode delivers answers with wit, wisdom, and the economic sass you never knew you needed.

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🔗 Resources:

President Trump’s Economic Plan Breakdown (NBC News)

Stock Market Reacts to Trump’s Tariff Announcement (CNN)

Trump Announces Higher Reciprocal Tariff Rates (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Trump Unveils Sweeping Global Tariffs (The New York Times)

These Cars May Be More Expensive As Trump’s Auto Tariffs Take Effect (Forbes)

What Apple, Trump, & Your Second Job Say About the Economy

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 02:00:00 -0700

What do a $500 billion Apple flex, Trump’s economic record, and your second job all have in common? They’re all part of the weird, wild economic moment we’re living in—and the guys are breaking it down. Chris and Saied take a sharp, funny, and occasionally savage look at how big companies are hedging political bets, what Trump actually did for the economy, and why more Americans are clocking in after hours just to keep up.

➡️ From Elon stirring the pot to AI’s role in job-hopping, we unpack what’s real, what’s media spin, and what it all means for your wallet. And if you're wondering whether taking on a side hustle makes you part of a larger economic trend or just a burnout statistic—yeah, we’ve got thoughts on that too. This is The Higher Standard, and we're not pulling punches.

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🔗 Resources:

President Trump's Economic Plan Breakdown (Elon Musk via X)

Apple boosts U.S. investment plans with $500 billion pledge (NBC News)

More Americans are holding down multiple jobs (WSJ via Instagram)

The Week Ahead (Yahoo! Finance)

Auto loan delinquencies & repossessions reached concerning levels (Intels via Instagram)

Consumer confidence hits lowest level in more than 4 years (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

When Dollar General Sounds Like the Fed, You Know It’s Bad

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 02:00:00 -0700

If the CEO of Dollar General starts talking like Jerome Powell, it might be time to check your emergency fund. In this episode, Chris and Saied dive headfirst into the weird intersection of retail earnings calls and central bank policy. Spoiler alert: both are saying the same thing — the consumer is tapped out. From February's disappointing 0.2% bump in retail sales to Walmart's CFO basically whispering, "We're screwed", the guys break down why Americans are spending less, stressing more, and maybe reconsidering that $7 oat milk latte.

➡️ We also unpack a haunting chart from Bravos Research that only shows up before market crashes (yay!) and revisit the growing wealth gap with Kathryn Anne Edwards' spicy reminder that 154,000 households now earn more than the bottom 77 million. Oh, and mortgage applications? At 30-year lows. But sure, the economy’s totally fine. With their signature blend of brutal honesty and sarcastic charm, Chris and Saied connect the dots between inflation fatigue, consumer psychology, and why this might just be the moment to stop pretending everything's “resilient.”

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🔗 Resources:

The Fed makes multiple revisions to their 2025 economic data projections (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

This signal has flashed only 2 times since 1960 (Bravos Research via X)

Retail sales came in weaker than expected (CNN)

Mortgage rejections at the highest level since GFC (Darth Powell via X)

Existing home sales came in at 4.26 million annualized in Feb 2025 (Nick Gerli via X)

Court records show how many federal workers were fired & rehired (CBS News)

The top 0.1% went from earning 8.1% of all taxable income to... (Kathryn Anne Edwards via Instagram)

Stocks, Rates & Jobs: The FOMC vs. The President

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 02:00:00 -0700

🚨 Disclosure: Due to an unexpected technical plot twist, the show's cameras stopped recording at the 27-minute mark. But instead of leaving you hanging, we got creative—real MacGyver vibes. If you're watching on YouTube or Spotify, enjoy the unconventional but still brilliant presentation. Hey, sometimes the universe forces you to innovate!

This episode of The Higher Standard is a wild ride through the economic turbulence gripping America. Chris and Saied tackle the hottest financial headlines, from the staggering reality of consumer debt to the relentless grind of inflation. If you think your credit card balance is bad, wait until you hear the numbers on a national scale. The guys break down the absurdity of rising car prices, how big banks are cashing in on your financial struggles, and why the dream of homeownership feels like a distant fever dream for many Americans. Oh, and if you’re wondering whether the Fed will swoop in to save the day—well, let’s just say, don’t hold your breath.

➡️ But it’s not all doom and gloom—there’s strategy in the chaos. With their signature wit and no-BS approach, the trio explores how to navigate these economic headwinds without losing your sanity (or your savings). From interest rate hacks to the real way to build wealth, they break it down in a way that makes sense. And if you’re looking for an excuse to stop scrolling Zillow at 2 AM, this episode might be it. Buckle up, because The Higher Standard is bringing the hard truths—plus a few good laughs along the way.

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🔗 Resources:

$6 eggs and other inflation pain points: Here's where prices are rising (Yahoo! Finance)

Millions in US juggle several jobs (LinkedIn)

US Mortgage Rates Drop for a Sixth Week to Lowest Since December (Yahoo! Finance)

Redfin Spikes After Rocket Announces $1.75 Billion Deal To Buy The Company (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Understanding Tariffs: Impact on Consumer Prices & the Risk of Stagflation

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Brace yourselves—this episode is a rollercoaster of wit, wisdom, and a little bit of economic doom. Chris and Saied break down the most contentious topic in finance right now: tariffs. Are they a necessary economic weapon or a sneaky tax on the everyday American? The guys cut through the noise with a no-nonsense breakdown of how these new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico are set to shake up prices on everything from your morning avocado toast to the car you (maybe) planned to buy next year. They also take a moment to reflect on their own economic genius—because when you call stagflation a year and a half ahead of time, you deserve some flowers.

➡️ But it’s not just economic policy that gets roasted today—Best Buy, Target, and even fresh produce take a hit as the hosts connect the dots between trade wars, inflation, and your dwindling savings account. From the absurdity of avocado pricing to the hidden costs of an iPhone made in China, this episode peels back the layers of financial jargon to show you how these decisions will hit your wallet, your weekend grocery run, and possibly even your job. Oh, and if you thought guacamole was overpriced before, just wait.

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🔗 Resources:

Free Trade (Wikipedia)

How Uncertainty From Trump’s Tariffs Is Rippling Through the Economy (Wall Street Journal)

How scared should you be about tariffs? (VOX)

Here's how Trump's tariffs could cost you and your wallet (NPR)

Will Trump’s tariffs push the U.S. economy into recession? Many economists think so. (Market Watch)

Why Warren Buffett Is Sitting on $334 Billion in Cash (What You Should Know!)

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take a wild ride through financial headlines, questionable government efficiency, and the enigma that is Warren Buffett’s ever-growing cash pile. From the SEC’s scathing dismissal of meme coins to Elon Musk demanding his employees justify their existence via email, no topic is safe from their razor-sharp commentary. The duo unpacks why the housing market remains stuck in limbo despite lower mortgage rates, and they throw in a little existential dread about government overspending just to keep things interesting. And if you’ve ever wondered why your health insurance costs an arm and a leg despite your tax dollars funding it, this episode might leave you with more questions than answers.

➡️ But don’t worry, it’s not all doom and gloom—Chris and Saied keep the laughs coming, whether it's dissecting the latest crypto meltdown, debating whether a $5 million "gold card" green card is the ultimate immigration hustle, or reminiscing about their younger, broker days. Plus, they drop a hint about the new studio space and the long-awaited return of guest interviews. If you love unfiltered financial takes, economic deep dives, and a little bit of chaos, this is an episode you don’t want to miss.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed cuts rates by quarter point, scales back cuts for 2025 (Yahoo! Finance)

Summary of Economic Projections (Q4 2024) (The Federal Reserve)

The $VIX spiked 74% higher today (Charlie Bilello via X)

Where inflation is and isn't (Q4 2024) (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Jerome Powell doesn't see the stag or the flation (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

The Housing Market, Remote Work Shakeups & Jamie Dimon’s Big Warning

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Chris and Saied break down the ever-misleading jobs report, exposing its flaws as a lagging indicator that fuels misguided Fed decisions. They reveal why unemployment figures don’t tell the full story—especially when they ignore discouraged workers and the rise of multiple job holders struggling to keep up. And if you’re a government worker in D.C., brace yourself—layoffs are coming. The duo also tackles housing market hysteria, debunking the doomsday headlines with hard data.

➡️ Then, Uncle Jamie (Dimon, that is) drops some *spicy* leaked audio, slamming remote work as an efficiency killer. Is this about productivity, or just a clever way to push employees out? Chris and Saied weigh in. And in classic Higher Standard style, they wrap up with a deep dive into workplace dissatisfaction, hybrid work struggles, and why your mindset might be the biggest factor in your job satisfaction.

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🔗 Resources:

Unemployment spikes in Washington, D.C. (Chart of the Day via Instagram)

Washington, D.C.’s economy looks like 2008 (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Active inventory for sale in the DC-VA-MD-WV metros (Lance Lambert via X)

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index (Lance Lambert via X)

Since World War II, there have been many recessions, but only one housing crash (Logan Mohtashami via X)

JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon goes ham on remote work (Barron’s via LinkedIn)

Declines in remote work (Washington Post Opinions via TikTok)

RTO or remote, where you work doesn’t change how happy you are in your job (CNBC)

Inflation Is Rising & Consumer Protections Are Vanishing - What It Means for You

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 02:00:00 -0700

This week, Chris and Saied tackle the latest inflation print that came in hotter than a tiger del fuego—and yes, that’s the official economic term now. With prices climbing for consumer staples like eggs (who knew you should’ve invested in chickens?), we dissect what this means for rate cuts, the Fed’s next move, and whether we’ll all just resort to eating cardboard to save money. And if you thought the government was on top of things, think again—because even regulators are scratching their heads over the latest CFPB drama. A federal agency created to protect consumers is basically getting ghosted by Washington, and let’s just say… crypto bros are very excited about this development.

➡️ But wait, there’s more! We break down the absurdity of credit card interest rates, why Home Alone 2’s Plaza Hotel suite now costs more than a used car, and the potential impact of Elon Musk’s secret Visa deal. Plus, Saied relives a scandalous youth basketball championship game that involved bad reffing, technical fouls, and one very dramatic post-game car ride. Oh, and Chris is still bleeding money on his studio construction—send thoughts, prayers, and five-star reviews. 🚀🔥💰

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🔗 Resources:

Here’s the inflation breakdown for January 2025 - in one chart (CNBC)

Inflation over 4 years (Charlie Bilello via X)

Trump's consumer watchdog freezes CFPB activity on first day of job (Reuters)

Russell Vought, CFPB's new acting head, issues directives to halt parts of bureau activity (NBC News)

Trump names Jonathan McKernan director of gutted CFPB (Housingwire)

Warren: Only Congress — not Trump or Musk — can 'get rid of the CFPB' (Yahoo! Finance )

The Psychology of Financial Decision-Making in Today's Economy

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this mind-expanding episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take a detour from their usual financial deep dives to expose the sinister underbelly of human decision-making. Turns out, the economy isn’t broken—our brains are. From Robert Shiller’s Narrative Economics to Jonathan Haidt’s The Anxious Generation, the duo unpacks how financial markets, political ideologies, and your everyday spending habits are more influenced by viral stories and social media hysteria than by any rational thought process. Long story, short: You’re probably not making financial decisions—you’re reacting to the subconscious cues planted in your head by algorithms, dopamine hits, and good old-fashioned tribalism.

➡️ And just when you thought you were in control, they hit you with The Chaos Machine by Max Fisher, a book that details how social media isn’t just ruining dinner-table conversations—it’s actively rewiring your brain for extremism and anxiety. From doomscrolling mortgage rate headlines to being emotionally blackmailed into buying gold, Chris and Saied reveal that the only way to escape the manipulation matrix is to step back, slow down, and—dare we say—think. But hey, no pressure! If you’d rather stay plugged into the fear factory, there’s always another viral headline waiting to tell you the economy is collapsing.

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🔗 Resources:

The Mortgage Rate Reality Sets In (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates Amid Economic Slowdown (The Guardian)

US Imposes New Tariffs, Prompting Global Trade Tensions (CNN Politics)

US Job Growth Slows in January (Associated Press )

Unlocking The Future With Quantum Computing

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 02:00:00 -0700

Strap in, folks! This episode of The Higher Standard dives into the mind-bending world of quantum computing, where traditional computers look like toddlers trying to do calculus compared to these futuristic behemoths. Chris and Saied break down how these machines are poised to change finance, security, and possibly the way your toaster thinks about bread. They also take a moment to discuss actual science before spiraling into side rants about social media trolls, the American dream, and why nobody really understands what venture capitalists do. Spoiler alert: It involves a lot of money and just the right amount of arrogance.

➡️ Of course, it wouldn’t be The Higher Standard without a healthy dose of banter. Saied gets existential about how much control private equity really has over the economy, while Chris exposes his deep-seated frustration with home prices and tax loopholes. They also take a moment to roast each other over everything from past financial missteps to the secret lives of CEOs who think they’re rich but are actually just playing in the minor leagues. Oh, and if you've ever wondered whether a broom by the front door is just "decorative" or a sign that witchcraft is officially taking over the household—Saied has some thoughts. Tune in for a hilarious, informative deep dive into the future of computing and the financial chaos of today.

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Stands Pat on Rates, Entering New Wait-and-See Phase (Wall Street Journal)

Why Your 401k Isn’t Enough: The Real Path to Wealth

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 02:00:00 -0700

The Jeff Goldbum of podcasting, Chris Naghibi, and the Louie Anderson of podcasting, Saied Omar, are back, and this time they're tackling the economy with unfocused and unstructured charm. Starting with a light-hearted critique of Chris' newfound love for wearing green—a strategy he swears is to win favor at home but admits has been a complete flop. From there, the duo launches into the harsh realities of wage stagnation and rising home prices, painting a vivid picture of how even modest salary increases are devoured by the ever-growing beast of inflation. They break down why the average American is essentially on a financial hamster wheel, running faster but getting nowhere.

➡️ Amid the numbers and economic analysis, Chris and Saied keep it relatable with personal anecdotes, like Chris recounting his transition from being overly sensitive to criticism to leaning into the jokes—a move that’s made life a lot more enjoyable (even if Saied insists he still hasn’t fully let go). The conversation turns to actionable advice, encouraging listeners to take charge of their financial futures by stepping out of their comfort zones and treating financial growth like fitness: intimidating at first, but life-changing with consistency. If you’ve ever wanted a masterclass in turning financial stress into a strategy, this episode is your comedic and educational golden ticket.

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🔗 Resources:

These boys went so off script, there are no links. Amateur hour right?

Artificial Intelligence: Boosting Innovation or Killing Careers?

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied embark on a laugh-out-loud journey into the brave new world of artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and why you might want to rethink your TikTok algorithm. From discussing how AI is turning banks into crystal ball-wielding financial wizards to debating whether robots will steal your job (spoiler: they’re coming for the lawyers first), it’s a rollercoaster of insight and hilarity. Oh, and if you think your browsing history is private, think again. AI is watching, and it knows you binge-watched that prison cooking channel.

➡️ But wait, there’s more! Dive into the existential crises caused by quantum computing tapping into other dimensions (yes, really) and the terrifying potential of AI deciding which car accident is “best” for your family. If that doesn’t keep you up at night, maybe the realization that your digital assistant knows your buying habits better than you do will. Tune in for all this, plus shocking revelations about how AI is creating, saving, and possibly obliterating jobs across industries. And remember, your data is the product, folks—don’t let the chatbots tell you otherwise!

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🔗 Resources:

Sizing the prize: What’s the real value of AI for your business and how can you capitalize? (PWC)

AI in Banking – An Analysis of America’s 7 Top Banks (Emerj)

The Scientist vs. the Machine (The Atlantic)

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work: Mapping the Ethical Issues (Springer: The Journal of Ethics)

AI is already taking video game illustrators’ jobs in China (Rest of World)

Money Stress in America: Breaking Down Financial Anxiety

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied tackle the growing emotional toll of money management and the chaos of California’s insurance market. Against the backdrop of the devastating Los Angeles fires, they unpack how insurers are fleeing high-risk areas, leaving homeowners with overpriced, bare-bones policies like the California Fair Plan. With homes underinsured and rebuilding costs skyrocketing, the financial stress for affected residents is a wildfire of its own.

➡️ But it’s not all doom and gloom! Chris and Saied bring their signature wit to dissect the psychology of money stress, sharing practical strategies to stop freaking out about your finances and start taking control. From reevaluating your beliefs about money to understanding how your childhood shaped your spending habits, they keep it real and relatable. Whether you're overwhelmed by rising costs or just tired of flex culture on social media, this episode offers a roadmap to finding clarity and a little peace of mind.

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🔗 Resources:

California Was Already in Home-Insurance Crisis Before Los Angeles Infernos (Wall Street Journal)

California Reverse Jim Cramer (Not Jerome Powell via X)

Fed's Bowman said December rate cut was 'last step' in 'policy recalibration' (Yahoo! Finance)

Unemployment is above its 36-month moving average (Bravos Research via X)

December jobs report shows unemployment fell to 4.1% (Yahoo! Finance)

The Stress Less Guide To Managing Money (Men's Health)

Classic Money Scripts (Your Mental Wealth Advisors)

What Happens When a Whole Generation Never Grows Up

Tue, 07 Jan 2025 02:00:00 -0700

🎧 What happens when a whole generation hits pause on adulthood? Chris and Saied are here to unpack the Wall Street Journal’s claim that millennials and Gen Z are stuck in “arrested development.” Spoiler: it’s not TikTok’s fault—try student loans, absurd housing costs, and a financial system that makes The Hunger Games look like a utopia.

➡️ From child-free lifestyles to 38-year-old first-time homebuyers, the guys tackle the systemic issues behind these trends with their trademark mix of wit and wisdom. Plus, a little shade for everyone’s favorite buzzwords (“soft maxing,” anyone?) and a hilarious tale of Chris’s recent tech splurge. If adulting feels impossible, don’t worry—you’re not alone. 🏡📉💸

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🔗 Resources:

What Happens When a Whole Generation Never Grows Up? (Wall Street Journal)

Current loan-to-value data in housing is 46.6% (Logan Mohtashami via X)

The value of a home in America since 1924 (Nick Gerli via X)

Your 2024 Economic Year in Review

Tue, 31 Dec 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Happy New Year! In this special year-end episode, Chris and Saied dive deep into the wild ride that was 2024, recapping the economy quarter by quarter with their signature mix of insight and banter. From the "pensive" start of the year where the Fed played cat-and-mouse with rate cuts to the real estate market's affordability crisis and the Magnificent Seven’s domination of Wall Street, this episode is packed with more twists and turns than a rollercoaster at an abandoned theme park. Whether it's debating AI's transformative potential, lamenting high mortgage rates, or pointing out the "Jersey Shore" dynamics of the Federal Reserve, Chris and Saied break it all down with wit, wisdom, and the occasional mocktail reference.

➡️ As they toast to a new year (mocktail in hand), the duo doesn't shy away from discussing the highs and lows of 2024, from soaring office vacancies to spiraling service costs. And as tradition dictates, they leave you with a little financial humor to ring in 2025: "Remember, folks, economic resolutions are like gym memberships—great in theory, but it’s the follow-through that counts! Stay sharp, stay savvy, and don’t let inflation shrink your New Year’s champagne budget." Here's to another year of keeping it real, financial nerds. Cheers! 🥂💥 Have you left your "honest ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️" review?

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🔗 Resources:

No links this week kids! The Higher Standard loves you.

The Fed's Latest Move: Why Markets Are About to Get Wild

Tue, 24 Dec 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode, Chris and Saied break down the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut, and let’s just say, it’s got everyone—from Wall Street to your wallet—feeling some kind of way. With a 25 basis point cut to the Fed Funds rate, inflation still refusing to play nice, and the bond market throwing a full-on tantrum, it’s clear: the Fed’s decisions are anything but boring. Oh, and don’t miss Chris’s hot take on how housing affordability has officially hit “you-can’t-make-this-up” levels of absurdity. Spoiler alert: the 10-year Treasury and your dreams of a lower mortgage rate aren’t on speaking terms.

➡️ From the VIX spiking a jaw-dropping 74% to why shrinkflation has you paying more for less Doritos, the duo dives into why markets have gone wild. Is the Fed’s “data dependency” just another way of saying “we’re winging it”? And what does this all mean for you, dear listener? Whether you’re a seasoned investor or someone just trying to figure out why eggs are still so damn expensive, Chris and Saied deliver insights with their signature blend of smarts and sass. Tune in for all the juicy details, and remember, it’s not the size of the rate cut—it’s how you use it!

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🔗 Resources:

Fed cuts rates by quarter point, scales back cuts for 2025 (Yahoo! Finance)

Summary of Economic Projections (Q4 2024) (The Federal Reserve)

The $VIX spiked 74% higher today (Charlie Bilello via X)

Where inflation is and isn't (Q4 2024) (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Jerome Powell doesn't see the stag or the flation (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Why Your First $100,000 Is The Hardest: Lessons From Financial Fails

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 02:00:00 -0700

You know what they say – the first $100,000 is the hardest, and it feels like scaling Mount Everest in flip-flops. In this episode of *The Higher Standard*, Chris and Saied unpack why breaking that six-figure milestone is such a struggle and how even Charlie Munger (RIP) called it a "b*tch." But once you hit that $100K, things start compounding faster than your excuses for skipping leg day. It’s like flipping a switch to rocket toward $1 million – or so we tell ourselves between sweet cream nitros and existential dread.

➡️ The boys also explore childhood money habits that might be sabotaging your wallet and dive into the *Case Shiller Index* to understand the warning signs of recessionary bubbles. From historical asset crashes to the 2008 housing crisis, they highlight why economic indicators are more than just fancy graphs. Saied’s expressions are priceless – equal parts shock, dread, and "I need a drink." So buckle up, hit play, and see if you’re on a path to wealth or just another bubble waiting to burst. Smash that like button, ring the bell, and remember: the road to wealth is paved with memes, mindset shifts, and maybe a little less avocado toast. 🥑💸

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🔗 Resources:

Robert Shiller and His CAPE Ratio (Gary Stone via X)

Can the S&P 500’s CAPE Ratio Predict a Market Crash? (Charts)

2025 Housing Market Predictions You Can’t Ignore

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Buckle up, folks—it's a wild week for the economy, and The Higher Standard crew is here to navigate the chaos so you don’t have to. Chris and Saied tackle the avalanche of data from the ISM, JOLTS, and the much - anticipated Jobs Report. (Haroon is still out on paternity leave.) Will these numbers flex harder than a bodybuilder at the beach, or are cracks starting to show? And don’t worry, Fed Chair Powell made sure to sprinkle some cryptic wisdom into the mix, like a monetary-policy Gandalf reminding us that "You shall not politicize!"

➡️ Meanwhile, the housing market predictions for 2025 are wilder than a Florida hurricane forecast. With Sun Belt cities building apartments like they're going out of style, rents are dropping faster than your self-esteem at an open mic night. And the predictions? They range from Apollo's optimistic “We’re all gonna be rich!” +10.8% to Moody’s pessimistic “Yeah, no” at -0.4%. Which regions will boom, and where will your real estate dreams get a reality check? Tune in to get the laughs, the insights, and maybe a crystal ball for 2025!

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🔗 Resources:

Fed Chair Powell Defends Fed Independence (Investopedia)

Rents in Southern and Sun Belt Cities Are Falling (Business Insider)

Realtor.com Predicts Modest Rise in Home Sales and Prices for 2025 (Business Insider)

Housing Price Predictions Across Major Markets (Lance Lambert via X)

Will Home Prices Crash in 2025? (Market Watch)

Is The American Dream Officially Dead Now?

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The American Dream is increasingly being questioned as financial challenges mount for many Americans. With 84% of the population believing it's a bad time to buy a home, the podcast dives into the shocking statistics surrounding homeownership costs, credit card debt, and the soaring rejection rates for loans.

➡️ Hosts Saied and Chris share their candid thoughts on the current economic landscape, including the burdens of rising prices and stagnant wages. As they navigate the complexities of the housing market and consumer debt, they highlight the importance of financial literacy in these turbulent times. Join them for a sexy yet insightful conversation that blends laughter with valuable lessons on navigating today’s economy.

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🔗 Resources:

The U.S. government’s hiring spree: 50,000 workers per month and its implications (Bravos Research via X)

Analyzing inflation and its long-term effects on the economy (Vlad the Inflator via X)

A deep dive into U.S. housing market inventory trends post-pandemic (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

54% of the nation's largest housing markets surpass pre-pandemic inventory levels (Resi Club Analytics via X)

Mortgage purchase applications: A historic downturn across years (Nick Gerli via X)

Buying a home in 2024 cost 42% more than renting one (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Auto loan delinquencies hit higher rates than the 2009 peak (Skorus Ark via X)

You Need To Know This About Your Job

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 02:00:00 -0700

🎙️ In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take listeners on a rollercoaster ride through the land of leadership, stress, and... Whole Foods hot bars? 🍳 Yes, it’s that kind of episode.

Starting with some playful banter about overpriced turmeric shots and parental leave policies (because Haroon is off becoming a “baby-making legend”), the hosts quickly shift gears to tackle the high-stakes world of corporate leadership. Chris gets real about his week of legal battles, emotional highs, and the unrelenting stress of balancing family life, work pressures, and the occasional existential crisis. All while trying to figure out if he’s genetically predisposed to being weak. (Thanks, 23andMe!)

➡️ The duo dives deep into the art of authenticity, unpacking why being your true self at work and on social media is a game-changer in today’s hyperconnected world. From Chris defending the misunderstood GLP-1 weight loss meds to Saied advocating for tough morning workouts that reset your day, the conversation is as educational as it is entertaining.

🔔 P.S. Happy Thanksgiving! Remember to be grateful for the little things—like when your grocery bill doesn’t require a loan.

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🔗 Resources:

What Are GLP-1 Medications? Understanding their use in weight loss and diabetes management (WebMD)

Cortisol: The Stress Hormone. Learn how cortisol impacts stress and overall health (Mayo Clinic)

Authentic Leadership: Exploring its impact on workplace culture and leadership dynamics (Harvard Business Review)

Emotional Intelligence in Leadership: The role of EQ in building resilience and managing stress (Psychology Today)

The Rise of the Slash Career: Balancing multiple career paths in a fast-evolving economy (Harvard Business Review)

Why Government Spending Is Soaring & How Elon Musk Plans to Fix It

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon tackle the behemoth that is U.S. government spending. With deficits skyrocketing 287% year-over-year and the national debt now exceeding $33 trillion, the hosts break down how this level of fiscal mismanagement impacts everything from mortgage rates to Social Security. They also delve into Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy's bold new roles in the Department of Government Efficiency, dissecting what their proposed agency cuts mean for the average American. Spoiler: The Department of Education and IRS might be on the chopping block.

➡️ As always, the conversation is packed with sharp humor and insightful analysis. Whether you're intrigued by the $250 billion deficit balloon in just one month, or curious about how Treasury bond issuance influences your car loan, this episode has you covered. By the end, you'll have a deeper understanding of why "balancing the budget" isn't just a catchy slogan—it's a necessity. Plus, a sprinkle of conspiracy theories and Musk's Dogecoin-inspired department name makes this one a must-listen.

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🔗 Resources:

Deficit spending surges to $250 billion in one month (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

What Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy could abolish in the name of government efficiency (Yahoo! Finance)

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy appointed to lead Trump’s “Department of Government Efficiency” (CNN)

Federal deficit reaches alarming new heights (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

How government spending affects you (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Americans fall further behind on debts as household debt reaches all-time high (Yahoo! Finance)

Why You’re Paying More for Cars, Homes, & Everything In Between

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The average age of U.S. homebuyers has soared to 56, proving that owning a home now requires both age and a level of patience previously reserved for waiting in line at the DMV. Saied, Chris, and Haroon hilariously dissect this trend, blaming skyrocketing home prices, nosebleed mortgage rates, and a painfully thin housing inventory for forcing younger buyers to stay on the sidelines—or back in their parents’ basements.

➡️ With a cocktail of sharp humor and real talk, the hosts unpack how these shifts impact everything from family planning to the American Dream itself (spoiler: it’s expensive). They also debate whether "strategic investing" is just code for "hope and prayer" in this market. Tune in as they turn these bleak economic trends into laughs while giving you the lowdown on navigating the financial jungle without losing your sanity—or your sense of humor.

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🔗 Resources:

Job growth slowed sharply last month (Wall Street Journal)

Even Some High-Income Americans Can't Afford New Cars Anymore (Bloomberg)

Homebuyer average age rises to 56 amid rising homeownership costs (CNBC)

Mortgage apps to buy a house are down 45% from pre-pandemic levels (Nick Gerli via X)

Warren Buffett is now building his cash balance at an unprecedented rate (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

28% of shoppers who used credit cards have not paid off the presents they purchased for family and friends last year(CNBC via Instagram)

Election Economics: How Inflation, GDP & The Fed Shape 2024’s Future

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 02:00:00 -0700

As the U.S. approaches Election Day on November 5th, the trio dives deep into the intersection of politics and economics, exploring how election outcomes could impact the market and your wallet. With rising anxiety reflected in the VIX index, your hosts discuss the historical volatility seen during previous elections, particularly in 2008 and 2020, and how this year’s political climate feels different yet uncertain. They dissect the implications of potential policy shifts and the Fed's monetary strategies, all while keeping the conversation light and humorous.

➡️ Anecdotes and witty banter interlace the serious discussions, making complex financial concepts more relatable. Join Saied, Chris, and Haroon as they navigate these critical topics with their signature blend of insight and levity, ensuring you’re informed and entertained as you head to the polls.

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🔗 Resources:

Election 2024: Inflation Outlook (Morgan Stanley)

October 2024 Beige Book Insights (Federal Reserve)

Episode 253 | Markets vs. The Fed: Who’s Right About Inflation 📈 & Employment? 📊 (The Higher Standard via YouTube)

A Look at Historical Market Patterns in Election Years (CME Group)

U.S. economy grew at 2.8% pace last quarter, powered by consumer spending (CBS News)

Markets vs. The Fed: Who’s Right About Inflation & Employment?

Tue, 29 Oct 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied take the stage as a dynamic duo, flying solo without their third musketeer, Haroon, who’s off on PTO (probably in a pickleball tournament or hiding from the Fed). With no one to keep them in check, the two dive headfirst into a whirlwind of financial insights, market predictions, and why the MAG 7 tech giants are carrying the S&P 500 on their backs like Atlas — except Tesla, whose latest earnings had investors buzzing despite mixed results. It’s a "two wise men" operation this week, and things get as real as inflation at a gas pump on payday.

➡️ Chris and Saied break down the love-hate relationship between the markets and the Fed — one’s bullish, the other’s just a buzzkill. They riff on whether inflation is here to stay, question if we’re headed for stagflation, and poke fun at economists trying to predict a recession like it’s the weather. Along the way, they tackle rising insurance premiums, paycheck-to-paycheck living, and the surreal cost of burritos ($46 for breakfast?!). With humor, hard-hitting insights, and a few Monopoly references thrown in for good measure, this episode is a wild ride through the tangled mess of today’s economy.

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🔗 Resources:

Financial insecurity and cost of living (Business Insider)

Tweet on inflation and financial markets (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on housing affordability crisis (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tweet on MAG 7 stocks and market concentration (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Tesla's Q3 Earnings Report (Yahoo Finance)

Existing Home Sales Fall To 14 Year Low (Yahoo Finance via Instagram)

Here’s when prices might ease, per Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

Housing Market Update: Prices Falling in 26 of 28 Major Cities

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Consumers might have to wait two to three years for their perceptions of inflation to normalize, as highlighted by Fed’s Daly, leaving many still wincing at higher prices. Meanwhile, falling home prices are causing significant distress, particularly in ten states where mortgage balances now exceed property values.

➡️ Episode 252 of The Higher Standard podcast dives into the alarming drop in US mortgage applications, which saw a 17% decrease—the largest since April 2020—along with potential benefits for homeowners in certain cities as interest rates tumble. The discussion also covers the anxiety surrounding credit card debt among Americans and JPMorgan’s new strategy to attract affluent clients with enticing branch experiences. Wrapping up, Chris, Saied and Haroon tackle why so many companies are firing Gen-Z employees, emphasizing a disconnect between workplace expectations and work ethic in today’s job market.

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🔗 Resources:

Here’s when consumers might finally stop wincing at higher prices, according to Fed’s Daly (MarketWatch)

Falling home prices are hitting homeowners in these 10 states the hardest — with up to 10% of mortgage balancesnow topping their property values (Business Insider)

JUST IN: US mortgage applications have dropped by 17.0% over the last week, the most since April 2020 (X / The Kobeissi Letter)

22 cities where homebuyers and owners will benefit most as interest rates tumble (Apple News)

The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America: Sept Update: Prices Drop in 26 of 28 Big Metros, even San Diego, Los Angeles (Wolf Street)

Americans are really anxious about their credit card debt (The Street)

'Signature bites' and free umbrellas: Inside JPMorgan’s plan to lure more rich people to its branches (Yahoo Finance)

Why So Many Companies Are Firing Gen-Z Employees (Inc.)

Kobe, Cash Flow, & Chasing Dreams: A Laid-Back Financial Chat

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The hosts take a hilarious trip down memory lane, reminiscing about the good old days of AIM (AOL Instant Messenger). They crack up over their embarrassingly bad usernames—ones that should probably never see the light of day again. You know that cringe-worthy online persona you thought was behind you? Turns out, it never really leaves! They dive into how their AIM alter-egos might still be haunting their present-day selves, proving once again that the internet never forgets. It’s a delightful mix of awkward nostalgia and a gentle reminder of how those early days of the internet shaped us all.

➡️ But it’s not all goofy usernames and AIM nostalgia. The conversation gets deeper (but still funny!) when they tackle how social media has made us all professional curators of our own lives. The hosts poke fun at the gap between the online versions of ourselves and the real deal, dropping truth bombs about authenticity and how everyone’s just trying to “fit in” online. And just when you think things couldn’t get more entertaining, they throw in some absurd ideas about modern marketing, suggesting brands take on the wild task of marketing to the homeless. It’s a genius blend of sharp social commentary and laugh-out-loud moments that’ll keep you thinking—and chuckling—long after the episode’s over.

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🔗 Resources:

Rate cuts were supposed to push mortgage rates lower. The opposite has happened. (AOL)

US credit card interest rates hit 23.4% in August, a new record. (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

From Basic Budgeting to Port Strikes & Bananas

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The 250th episode of The Higher Standard podcast marks a significant milestone packed with our unique style of humor and engaging discussions on financial literacy. Hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon navigate the complexities of budgeting and personal finance with an entertaining twist. They delve into the nitty-gritty of establishing a payday routine, breaking it down into digestible segments for their audience. The conversation emphasizes the importance of a 60/30/10 budgeting rule, where 60% of income is allocated to essentials, 30% to savings, and 10% to discretionary spending.

➡️ Chris and Saied share their personal experiences, illustrating how small daily habits, like enjoying a morning coffee, can contribute to overall financial well-being. The episode captures the essence of making finance relatable and fun while equipping listeners with actionable strategies to improve their monetary management. Additionally, the episode features a lively segment discussing the ramifications of the recent port strike, highlighting its potential impact on the economy and consumer prices. With witty banter and insightful commentary, your favorite anti-economist hosts create a lighthearted atmosphere, making financial literacy feel accessible and engaging for everyone.

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🔗 Resources:

Harold Dagger President of the International Longshoremen’s Association (Plant Based Omnivore via Instagram)

Over 50,000 port workers across the United States are now on strike for the first time since 1977. (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs hires his jail mate Sam Bankman-Fried’s lawyer (Fortune)

The Housing Market Has A BIG Problem

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Chris takes the helm for episode 249 of The Higher Standard podcast, delivering an insightful solo deep dive into the economic landscape. The episode kicks off by addressing the Federal Reserve's unexpected 50 basis point rate cut and its implications for the U.S. economy, drawing parallels to previous cuts in 2001 and 2007 that preceded recessions.

➡️ With a focus on the housing market, Chris unpacks the complexities of mortgage rates, home prices, and why current market conditions make rental property investments less profitable. He also delves into the intricacies of bond market reactions, providing listeners with a comprehensive understanding of the current financial climate and what it may mean for the future.

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🔗 Resources:

US consumers believe the economy is in a recession (The Kobeissi Letter)

The US consumer confidence index declined (The Kobeissi Letter)

Fed Governor Bowman explains dissent on rate vote, says she’s worried about inflation (CNBC)

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says he remains skeptical (Bloomberg Economics via X)

U.S. Home prices are up…. A lot. (Lance Lambert)

The median US mortgage payment fell 2.7% YOY (The Kobeissi Letter)

If you could magically conjure up 1.5 million housing units (Lance Lambert)

Buying a rental property in America is no longer profitable (Nick Gerli)

The Fed Cut Rates Half A Point, Now What

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Episode 248 of The Higher Standard is here and Saied, Chris and Haroon break down the key takeaways from the Fed's decision to cut a full 50bps for its first rate cut of the cycle. The last two times this happened historically was in 2001 and 2007. After each of those was a notable recessionary economy.

➡️ Real estate agents are also dropping like flies already, falling to the lowest number of reported employed agents since 2014. Almost as shocking is that the 23andMe CEO Anne Wojicicki has lost her entire board of directors in a single day. Lastly, as tragic as the Diddy situation may be, you know they guys had to unpack it and cover some of the absolutely stunning and strange revelations.

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🔗 Resources:

Key takeaways from the Fed’s decision to deliver a jumbo-sized interest rate cut (CNN)

Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps (Geiger Capital via X)

BREAKING: The number of full-time real estate agents and brokers in the US dropped to 440,000 in 2023, the least since 2014 (Kobeissi Letter via X)

23andMe CEO Anne Wojcicki ‘surprised and disappointed’ by board resignations: Read the memo (CNBC)

Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs to remain in custody after judge denies bail appeal in racketeering conspiracy and sex trafficking case (CNN)

We Are Getting A Rate Cut This Week

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In episode 247 of The Higher Standard, Saied, Chris and Haroon dive deep into a lighthearted discussion about the unexpected appearance of cockroaches in their studio. As they transition into the financial content, the team tackles a listener question on how to find the best real estate agent. And of course they had to cover the guaranteed rate cut happening this week when the FOMC announces their decision on Wednesday, September 18th.

➡️ The second half of the episode shifts gears with a robust debate about LeBron James and his impact on the economy, comparing his legacy to other sports icons like Tom Brady. They also touch on pop culture, covering everything from the Bad Boys movie franchise to Jackie Chan’s unique quirks.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation falls to 2.5% year-over-year lowest since Feb. 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Where inflation is…. And isn’t (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Housing costs keeping inflation over 2% (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Fresh jobs data tests how deeply Fed will cut rates ahead of government payroll report (Yahoo! Finance)

Real Money Making Habits That Can Make You Millions

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard, your charming hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive deep into the habits that might be holding you back from financial freedom, inspired by Humphrey Yang’s insightful YouTube video “The Middle Class Habits Keeping You in the Rat Race.” The trio dissects the habits that seem harmless but might be chaining you to mediocrity, and they share their own witty takes on breaking free and creating real wealth. Get ready for some laughs, real-talk advice, and actionable steps to escape the rat race for good. Spoiler: It's not just about skipping that morning latte!

➡️ Expect a dynamic conversation that balances humor and depth, with takeaways like the importance of investing in yourself, mastering delayed gratification, and rethinking the way you approach money management. Whether you’re just starting your financial journey or a seasoned pro, there’s something in here for everyone — and as always, it’s delivered with the signature banter that keeps you coming back.

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🔗 Resources:

The Middle Class Habits Keeping You in the Rat Race (Humphrey Yang via YouTube)

What You Need To Know About Rate Cuts & How to Make Millions

Tue, 03 Sep 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In episode 245 of The Higher Standard podcast, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive into the latest market-moving headlines. They start with a bombshell from Jerome Powell, who finally hints that the Fed might cut interest rates. But before you get too excited, they break down why rate cuts tied to a looming recession might spell trouble for your stock portfolio. The hosts then shift gears to the housing market, discussing how U.S. home prices have hit a record high, making it tougher than ever to afford your dream home.

➡️ And if that wasn’t enough, they expose some jaw-dropping admissions from Mark Zuckerberg that could change the way you see Big Tech. Lastly, they take a fascinating detour into the lucrative (and risky) world of professional whistleblowing—spoiler alert: you can make millions if you play your cards right!

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🔗 Resources:

Jerome Powell says "time has come" for Fed to cut interest rates (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

Rate Cuts That Come With Recession Aren't Good For Stocks (Yahoo! Finance)

U.S. Home Prices Hit A Record High (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Mark Zuckerberg just admitted three things (House Judiciary GOP via X)

How To Make Millions As A Professional Whistleblower (GQ via Apple News)

The BIG We Told You This Would Happen Episode

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard podcast, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive into the timeless lessons of Robert Kiyosaki's "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," reflecting on the book’s enduring insights into wealth-building strategies. While they acknowledge the value of its principles, the hosts candidly express their mixed feelings about Kiyosaki’s modern-day social media persona, suggesting that his transformation might have taken some of the shine off his original teachings.

➡️ The conversation then shifts gears to current events, where the trio tackles the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data, followed by a deep dive into the startling news that the U.S. economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. They discuss the implications of this revision, including the Fed confronting the reality of potentially losing up to a million jobs in their forecast. On a lighter note, the hosts sprinkle in some pop culture commentary, from Ashanti and Nelly's baby news to the potential $550 million fallout from a rumored Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck divorce, and even a nod to Lil Jon's surprise appearance at the DNC. As always, Chris, Saied, and Haroon deliver sharp insights with their signature wit.

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🔗 Resources:

Bureau of Labor statistics shenanigans (ZeroHedge via X)

Fed Confronts Up to a Million US Jobs Vanishing in Revision (Bloomberg)

US economy created 818,000 fewer jobs than previously reported (Fox Business)

These Are The Influencers You Can't Trust

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In episode 243 of The Higher Standard podcast, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive headfirst into the world of social media financial influencers, giving a no-holds-barred critique of those you should avoid at all costs. They call out big names like Grant Cardone, Pace Morby, Kris Krohn, Luke Belmar, Albert Preciado and more.

➡️ As the conversation shifts gears, the hosts tackle some of the hottest financial news floating around Instagram. They break down the cooling inflation rates, the credit card debt that's soaring to dizzying heights, and Starbucks' bold move of poaching Chipotle's CEO like it's a new menu item. It wouldn’t be The Higher Standard without a little pop culture flair, the hosts wrap up with a whirlwind tour through the latest celebrity news and jaw-dropping headlines—from Adele’s engagement to Rich Paul to Tom Cruise’s Olympic-sized stunt planning.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation cools to lowest level since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

U.S. consumer price index (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Overall inflation below 3% for first time since march 2021 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Credit card debt hit record $1.14 trillion (NBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Starbucks soars after poaching chipotle CEO (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Emergency Economic Fireside Chat

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The stock market’s recent nose dive has everyone buzzing, and The Higher Standard crew is here to break it all down. Chris, Saied, and Haroon dig into the fleeting positivity of the 2Y/10Y spread—did it really mean anything, or was it just a tease? Meanwhile, Dave Ramsey’s relentless “buy, buy, buy” mantra gets a skeptical side-eye as the hosts question whether it’s time to pump the brakes instead of the gas.

➡️ As if things weren’t shaky enough, U.S. credit card debt hits a staggering $1.14 trillion, and job growth falls way short of expectations. With unemployment creeping up to 4.3%, the guys explore whether we’re headed for a full-blown recession or just a rough patch. Buckle up—this episode is a wild ride through the latest financial turbulence.

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🔗 Resources:

Caution, Recession Ahead? (Investopedia)

Credit card debt hits record $1.14T (Chart Of The Day)

Job growth totals 114,000 in July, much less than expected, as unemployment rate rises to 4.3% (CNBC)

How To Get Rich In This Economy

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Getting rich can happen a lot of different ways, but very few instances are quick or by chance. Most people build wealth over time by following the principles that Chris, Saied and Haroon lay out for you at the top of episode 241 of The Higher Standard podcast.

➡️ But don't stop there, the boys jump in to all the financial information you need to know in order to stay abreast of what is going on in the economy. The only other thing they can do to make it easier to build wealth is just give you the money.

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🔗 Resources:

Job openings dip slightly in June amid signs of 'turbulence' in labor market (Yahoo! Finance)

The Fed needs to cut rates. Now. (Bloomberg Opinion)

Trump turns up heat on Fed ahead of expected rate cuts: 'It's something that they know they shouldn’t be doing.' (Yahoo! Finance)

The US national debt just surpassed another milestone: $35 trillion (Yahoo! Finance)

GDP: US economy grows at faster-than-expected pace in second quarter as inflation eases (Yahoo! Finance)

Financial Terms You Didn't Know You Needed To Know

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 02:00:00 -0700

We get it. Some times on The Higher Standard podcast we throw around a lot of financial terms that not everyone is familiar with. Chris, Saied and Haroon aim to fix that, in part, by practically defining a lot of financial terms for you that you didn't know you needed to know in episode 240 of the show.

➡️ From balance sheets to high yield savings accounts. From securities to bonds. From EPS to P/E ratios. We got you covered.

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🔗 Resources:

What Is an Asset? Definition, Types, and Examples (Investopedia)

Net Worth: What It Is and How to Calculate It (Investopedia)

The Bond Market and Debt Securities: An Overview (Investopedia)

What Is the Formula for Calculating Earnings per Share (EPS)? (Investopedia)

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: Definition, Formula, and Examples (Investopedia)

Shocking Financial Statistics Of The Average Person & Looming Rate Cuts

Tue, 23 Jul 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Episode 239 of The Higher Standard podcast starts off with Chris, Saied and Haroon diving in to some of the top financial mistakes people make. Some of these may sound basic or simple, but you would be shocked at how many people are impacted by these problems every single day.

➡️ For the second segment of the show, the boys go deep on the first strong probability of a Fed Funds rate cut. See, we told you that we don't only bring you bad news.

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🔗 Resources:

Powell indicates Fed won't wait until inflation is down to 2% before cutting rates (CNBC)

Powell Says US Data Offer Confidence That Inflation Is on Path to 2% (Bloomberg)

Markets are betting there's a 100% chance the Fed cuts rates in September (Yahoo! Finance)

Wall Street Economists See Compelling Case for Fed to Cut Now (Yahoo! Finance)

No rush for US Fed to cut rates, IMF's chief economist says (Yahoo! Finance)

Investing For Your Kids And Recession Red Flags

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this jam-packed episode of The Higher Standard, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive headfirst into the fiery debate of 529 plans versus brokerage accounts for kids. With Chris hilariously comparing brokerage accounts to the wild west and Haroon trying to make 529 plans sound as exciting as a superhero origin story, this segment is both informative and entertaining.

➡️ And just when you thought things couldn't get crazier, Saied drops the bombshell that US bankruptcies have hit their highest level in 14 years. It’s the perfect mix of financial advice and economic drama you didn’t know you needed. Don’t miss this rollercoaster of an episode that turns financial turmoil into pure podcast gold.

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🔗 Resources:

US Bankruptcies hit the highest level in 14 years (Global Markets Investor via X)

Job openings have been rapidly declining (Game of Trades via X)

50 housing markets where home prices are down the most from peak (Lance Lambert via X)

Price cuts on the US Housing Market just hit their highest level in six years (Nick Gerli via X)

A massive housing bubble has developed, and is about to pop, in the South (Nick Gerli via X)

EBITDA Explained, Inflation Persists & Hawk Tuah

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Welcome back to another episode of The Higher Standard podcast, where Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive into the latest in finance, investing, and pop culture. Today, we're breaking down some intriguing insights and bringing a touch of humor to your financial woes. First up, the boys aim to demystify "EBITA" – yes, we know you probably thought it was a hip new tech term, but no, it’s just Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, and Amortization.

➡️ And just when you thought this episode couldn’t get any more eclectic, we shift gears to the world of entertainment. Will Smith made a heartwarming return to music with his BET Awards performance, Jamie Foxx spills the beans on his mystery illness, and J.J. Redick has some thoughts about the Lakers drafting Bronny James.

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🔗 Resources:

EBITA Explained (Nicolas Boucher via LinkedIn)

Where do wealthy younger and older investors see the greatest potential for growth? (CNBC Chart of the Day via Instagram)

Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected (CNBC)

Fed’s preferred inflation gauge shows prices rose at slowest pace since March 2021 (Yahoo Finance via Instagram)

Mind Pump's Amazing Adam Schafer Returns

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Some of you might not know this, but The Higher Standard podcast wouldn't be here if it were not for Mind Pump's Adam Schafer. Chris and Saied were long time fans of Mind Pump, the #1 fitness podcast in the world. Adam and Chris formed a friendship over time and the idea to create The Higher Standard in a model after Mind Pump was born. You may even note the homage to the Mind Pump studio in The Higher Standard's aesthetic.

➡️ It has been a while since Adam Schafer and Chris had an opportunity to sit down in front of a hot mic and talk about life. It's been nearly 10 years since Mind Pump started and a lot has changed. Adam is thinking a lot about the next chapter of his business and his life. The boy talk about cars, watches, the evolution of business, why being an "influencer" is a bad idea and so much more.

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🔗 Resources:

Bringing Truth To Health & Fitness Worldwide (Mind Pump Media)

Some Random Dude (Full Compression via Instagram)

Pejman Ghadimi (Exotic Car Hacks via Instagram)

Episode 232 | 💥 The Get Dynasty Origin Story (The Higher Standard )

The Fed Admits They Were Wrong

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied, and Haroon kick off this episode of The Higher Standard podcast with a look in to dive deep into what was once the hype around the Bilt credit card program. The Flashy Rent Credit Card was backed by Wells Fargo Bank and is costing them $10 million a month thanks to some poor business decisions. Sometimes when something sounds too good to be true, it is. And yes, even big, sophisticated banks can make bad decisions sometimes.

➡️ Even though Chris forgot his introduction in this week's show and Saied stole the show closing, they still managed to provide some economic insights on the Fed holding rates unchanged, what the CPI report means for you and what could potentially be the "mother of all layoffs."

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🔗 Resources:

Wells Fargo Bet on a Flashy Rent Credit Card. It Is Costing the Bank Dearly. (Wall Street Journal)

Another more-of-the-same report on CPI rent (and OER) (Jay Parsons via X)

The mother of all mass layoffs is coming (ZeroHedge via X)

Buying conditions in the US housing market have collapsed (Game of Trades via X)

GDP, CPI & All The Data You NEED to Know Explained

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard podcast, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive deep into the essential economic data impacting today's market. They kick off with the critical information you need to understand about GDP and CPI, highlighting the significance of the latest CPI print.

➡️ The discussion then moves to the US yield curve problem, including its record-breaking inversion of 702 days. The hosts explore the longest streaks of low unemployment, the surge in people working multiple jobs, and the dramatic 47.1% rise in US home prices since 2020. arket shifts, Trump’s trial verdict, and the postponement of the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight.

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🔗 Resources:

Tomorrow's CPI inflation data is HUGE (Kobeissi Letter via X)

The US Yield Curve (Charlie Bilello via X)

The US Treasury yield curve has been inverted for 702 days, the longest streak in bond market history (Kobeissi Letter via X)

This is one of the longest streaks of low unemployment ever (Investopedia)

The number of people working multiple jobs in the US hit a near-record of 8.4 million in May 2024 (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Home prices in the US are up 47.1% since 2020 (Kobeissi Letter via X)

CEO of Reventure’s interpretation of Realtor.com data (Nick Gerli via X)

Market backs off on hopes for interest rate cuts following strong jobs report (CNBC)

How Much Home Can You ACTUALLY Afford

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In episode 233 of "The Higher Standard," Chris, Saied and Haroon dive into the crucial topic of home affordability, exploring how much house you can actually afford without breaking the bank or sacrificing your prized Pokémon collection.

➡️ They delve into the latest housing market trends, discussing the surge in new single-family homes for sale as highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter and the rising listings in the US housing market noted by Mohamed A. El-Erian. Lance Lambert’s insights on housing affordability also get the spotlight, while the trio adds their unique commentary on job market shifts, Trump’s trial verdict, and the postponement of the Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight.

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🔗 Resources:

The number of NEW single-family houses for sale has surged (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

The US housing market is finally starting to see listings rise (Mohamed A. El-Erian via X).

Housing affordability is the story (Lance Lambert via X).

Job openings fall to lowest level since February 2021 (Yahoo! Finance).

Trump trial: After guilty verdict (NBC News).

Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul fight postponed (NBC News)

The Get Dynasty Origin Story

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this episode of The Higher Standard podcast, hosts Chris, Saied, and Haroon engage in an insightful conversation with Alessandro Chesser, co-founder of GetDynasty. GetDynasty is revolutionizing estate planning by offering a platform that allows users to create and manage living trusts entirely online. This innovative approach helps protect assets, avoid probate, and ensure seamless inheritance. Highlighted in the discussion are Dynasty's notable investors, including Bill Ackman, Henry Ward, and Jerry Murdock, underscoring the company's strong backing and potential impact on democratizing wealth management.

➡️ If Alessandro looks strikingly handsome, you can chalk that up to good genetics as he also happens to be the cousin of the one and only Sal Di Stefano, who is partially responsible for The Higher Standard podcast's creation.

Learn More Here: https://www.getdynasty.com

📌 Get Dynasty On:

https://www.youtube.com/@GetDynasty

https://www.instagram.com/getdynasty

https://www.tiktok.com/@getdynasty

https://www.facebook.com/getdynastycom

https://x.com/getdynasty_com

https://www.linkedin.com/company/getdynasty/

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🔗 Resources:

Mind Pump Media (Mind Pump's Website)

Shelter Is Propping Up Inflation

Tue, 28 May 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Sometimes the title says it all. Shelter is actually propping up inflation and Chris, Saied and Haroon have the data to prove it.

➡️ Specifically, shelter accounts for approximately 33% of the total CPI and approximately 40% of core inflation. With this much weighting, you can't hit the Fed's 2% target without a decrease in shelter costs.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation cools off in April (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Inflation has not fallen in a single month since January 2021, according to Zerohedge (Kobeissi Letter via X)

U.S. Rental vacancy (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Housing Market Data (Redfin)

Total US household debt increased by $190 billion in Q1 2024 (Kobessi Letter via X)

U.S. Household debt climbs to a record $17.69 trillion (Yahoo! Finance via X)

US credit card delinquency rates jumped to 8.9% in Q1 2024 (Kobessi Letter via X)

U.S. jobless claims jump to highest level in eight months (Yahoo! Finance)

In New York City, rents grew more than seven times faster than wages last year (Unusual whales via X)

Fed Governor Waller wants ‘several months’ of good inflation data before lowering rates (CNBC)

A Conversation With Fridays Founders

Tue, 21 May 2024 02:00:00 -0700

It's been a while since the boys have had a guest on and they thought why not keep it in the family. Saied's cousin, Weiss Surkhabi, MD and his co-founder, Dr. Sina Arham join us to talk about their journey in building their company "Fridays." Fridays aims to provide patients with weight loss solutions that fit their biology and their budget. They believe in a patient's right to fair and equitable medical treatment to achieve their healthiest weight. Essentially treating obesity as a disease before someone's health deteriorates in to so many of the conditions that tend to develop afterward.

➡️ If you have followed the show, you already know that Chris is a big fan of peptides and what they mean for longevity and preventative care. So naturally it made sense to speak to two subject matter experts on some of the more popular variants and the nuances of how and when they are prescribed. Of course, it wouldn't be The Higher Standard podcast if we didn't get in to the nuances of how the business was started, the challenges that needed to be overcome and the lessons learned along the way.

Learn More Here: https://www.joinfridays.com

📌 Join Fridays On:

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/joinfridays/

TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@joinfridays

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/joinfridays

LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/joinfridays

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🔗 Resources:

Breakdown of all lifestyle (Dave Pascoe's Website)

The Most Important Lessons In Investing

Tue, 14 May 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Okay, look, we admit it. We are a tiny bit older than 20 years-old and sure, that makes us the "old guys." But, it does mean we have lived through some good and bad decisions. Particularly when it comes to investing. Chris, Saied and Haroon open the show by breaking down their most important lessons in investing. Some have lead to big wins and some have lead to big losses. We hope they help you decide whether or not you are will to take the risk and invest on your own.

➡️ After a prolongated trip down memory lane, the boys dive right in to the week's important data and what yo should watch out for, Neel Kashkari is doing Neel Kashkari things again and rental vacancy for apartments is at its highest level in 4 years. Then, just after the hour mark, they pivot to Haroon's pop culture segment which includes all the things you should know from the past week. We got rap beefs, met galas and artificial intelligence.

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🔗 Resources:

Notable data this week (Chris Naghibi via X)

Fed may need to hold rates steady all year, Kashkari says (Reuters)

U.S. Rental vacancy (Kobeissi Letter via X)

How To Value Real Estate Like The Pros

Tue, 07 May 2024 02:00:00 -0700

So many people use Zillow or Redfin to determine the value of their home, but should they? Even if you get a value, how do you have confidence that it is the right one and not skewed by the wrong data? Realtors would tell you to leave it to the professionals, but a fun fact is that Realtors are not licensed to value homes, but rather only to sell them. Chris, Saied and Haroon are going to tell you how to value your home like a licensed real estate appraiser.

➡️ The great real estate professionals use this same methodology when they try to figure out what value to sell your home for or what the offer price should be of a home you are looking to buy. It's time you knew how to do it too.

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🔗 Resources:

Notable data this week (Chris Naghibi via X)

Consumer confidence hits lowest level since July 2022 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

U.S. Economic grows slower than expected in first Quarter (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Avg. 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 51 bps below the cycle high (Lance Lambert via X)

Mortgage rates rise further above 7% (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

How To Begin Investing In Real Estate

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 02:00:00 -0700

If you have ever wondered if you can ask a question and be a guest on the show, the answer is absolutely... yes! Episode 227 of The Higher Standard podcast brings us a long time listener and first time caller, Vache. The young father-to-be sent a direct message to Chris about how to begin real estate investing and plan for his future. Saied, Chris and Haroon thought it would make a wonderful segment that would provide value to all. So we hope you like this analytical breakdown and personalized approach. If you have any questions or would like to be on the show, please do not hesitate to reach out.

➡️ Should the target inflation rate be 2%? The Fed is going to keep rates higher for longer after all. And, some interesting side hustle data that we thought would be compelling enough to share. Of course, no show would be complete without Haroon's growing pop culture segment.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation will likely be above the Fed's 2% inflation target for the rest of 2024 (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

The Fed is keeping interest rates higher for longer than normal (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

This Flexible Side Hustle Is Helping Millions Earn Extra Cash — and Might Be 'More Attractive' Than an Office Job (Entrepreneur)

You Need To Do This Before You Build A Business

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Do I need a corporation? Do I need an LLC? What the hell is an "S" corporation and a "C" corporation? We have been asked this question so many times that it became obvious we needed to provide some insight in to what you need to know and do before you build a business. Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to help you get your business started with the right foundation in episode 226 of The Higher Standard.

➡️ Inflation also came in super hot and layoffs are happening in the market with some of the largest companies in business today. We also have an extra sexy dose of pop culture coming your way with commentary on Coachella, Caitlin Clark, Joe Rogan, Max Holloway, UFC and more.

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🔗 Resources:

Inflation comes in hotter than expected in March (Yahoo! Finance)

Where inflation is… and isn’t (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Powell Dials Back Expectations on Rate Cuts (Wall Street Journal)

Credit card delinquency rates are still on the rise (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Apple will lay off over 600 employees in California (CNET via Instagram)

Tesla plans to lay off more than 10% of workforce as sales slump (CBS News via Instagram)

Before You Buy A Property, Recession Warning & The Perfect Wife

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In a jam packed episode of The Higher Standard podcast, Chris, Saied and Haroon cover everything you need to know before you buy a property. They then jump over the the importance of financial literacy in schools before the hit the hardcore data segment. A big recession indicator is flashing red, total credit card debt is up while the saving rate is plummeting and the boy have concerns of the looming inflation print. They think we won't see a probably of a rate cut until likely July at the earliest.

➡️ Episode 225 is also the beginning of testing a third show segment where Haroon hits us with some popular culture topics to discuss. Some will be finance related, some will not be, but for those of you who wanted to hear more about our thoughts and a more intimate look at who we are. We got you.

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🔗 Resources:

Value of a financial education: why more schools are providing financial literacy classes (CNBC via Instagram)

The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Total credit card debt vs. savings rate (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Oregon Player comes forward as $1.3 billion powerball lottery winner, officials say (USA Today)

Lara Croft is the ‘most iconic’ video game character, new polls finds (NBC News)

‘House of the Dragon’ Drops ‘Dueling’ Season 2 Trailers as HBO Makes Viewers Choose Between Rhaenyra and Alicent (Variety)

The UConn men's basketball team has won back-to-back NCAA championships (Variety)

Bad Boys: Ride or Die (Screen Rant)

Four Paths To Millions, Lots Of Data & Kashkari Gets It

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Years after reading an article on CNBC titled "There are 4 main paths to becoming a millionaire—and this is the easiest one, says money expert" Chris still feels like the salient points are still very much relevant to this day. Chris, Saied and Haroon kick off the show with Rich Corley's 4 paths to becoming a millionaire from his book titled "Rich Habits."

➡️ Episode 224 then pivots to a breakdown of Jerome Powell's love for Neel Kashkari, some fresh perspective on the FOMC's thoughts and methodology on what may happen next and an 800,000 payroll mistake.

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🔗 Resources:

There are 4 main paths to becoming a millionaire—and this is the easiest one, says money expert (CNBC)

Remarks from Chair Jerome H. Powell at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy Conference (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

We now have…Higher for longer back? (Kobeissi Letter via X)

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure rises to 2.5% (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Philadelphia Fed Admits US Payrolls Overstated By At Least 800,000 (Zero Hedge)

Corporate Profits reach new highs & profit margins hover at historic highs (Yahoo! Finance)

You Need A Trust, The Fed, Housing & Diddy

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Friends, please make sure your financial seat backs and tray tables are in their full upright position because we are about to tell you why you need a trust. Make sure your economic seat belt is securely fastened and all carry-on luggage is stowed underneath the seat in front of you like Diddy sneaking through customs or in the overhead bins like his drug mule.

➡️ We are going to dive in to the last Fed meeting, the impact to the rate environment and talk to you about how it impacts you in the near future. Then, even though home prices rose 2.4 times faster than inflation since 1960s, new home prices are now down 20% and THS is here to tell you why.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Top takeaways from Jerome Powell’s FOMC press conference (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

The FED Reserve posts record loss of $114 billion in 2023 (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

A rush of money has hit US corporate bond markets in 2024 (Mohamed El-Erian via LinkedIn)

Average rate for U.S. savings accounts (Chart of the Day via Instagram)

Home prices rose 2.4 times faster than inflation since 1960s (CNBC via Instagram)

New home prices are now down 20% (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

The Investment Strategy & Wild NAR Settlement

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 02:00:00 -0700

After many repeated requests, Chris shares his own basic investment strategy that took his personal growth portfolio from $0 to over $1,000,000 with as little oversight as possible. He provides you the names of the low cost index funds he uses, the allocation to each and then explains how he has built his portfolio from there. This is not investment advice; however, it is what he did to create his wealth in the markets and is still what he does today. This strategy will work for the novice investor and for most experts; however, your own risk profile will determine if it is the best strategy for you. The Higher Standard boys, missing Haroon, then turn to the landmark lawsuit settlement by the National Association of Realtors and its potential impacts to the housing market. They dive in to the stock market's wild levels lead by the Magnificent 7 and then cap off the episode with a quick look at the rental housing market with a new found economist.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

What to Know about the New Rules for Buying and Selling Homes (Wall Street Journal)

Real Estate Stocks Slide Following Landmark Realtor Settlement (Yahoo! Finance)

U.S. Home Values Are Growing Faster Than National Debt (Investopedia via X)

Stock concentration is now at Great Depression levels (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Rental Housing Economist (Jay Parsons via LinkedIn)

The #1 Wealth Killer & Why The Jobs Report Is Broken

Tue, 19 Mar 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied and the spirit of Haroon are back at it and still playing with an updated beta version of the format for "The Higher Standard" podcast. We are trying to hit you right in the face before the intro, before the shenanigans with useful financial literacy. We are still going to get in to current events and our take, but we want to make sure that each and every single one of you find value within each episode. So, please let us know what you think. We start off today's show with the #1 one killer of wealth. Auto debt can be way more deadly to your financial prosperity than you know. In breaking this all down, Chris and Saied share their mistakes along the way. Then they hop on over to a detailed breakdown on why the jobs report is broken and why the numbers you are hearing do not match the reality of the world around you.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

February jobs report: US economy adds 275,000 jobs, unemployment rate hits 3.9% (Yahoo! Finance)

Inside The Most Ridiculous Jobs Report In History: Record 1.2 Million Immigrant Jobs Added In One Month (Zero Hedge)

Employment numbers actually fell (The Kobeisissi Letter via X)

How To Get A Perfect Credit Score, Inflation & Shelter

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this "The Higher Standard" episode, Chris, Saied, and Haroon mix humor with economic deep dives. They cover building a top credit score and analyze S&P 500's performance via Bloomberg. Next, they tackle CNBC's report on the Fed's latest inflation measure. They then explore SuperCore Inflation with The Kobeissi Letter and tackle rent inflation's mysteries with the Washington Post. Plus, they dissect dire predictions of a $34 trillion debt crisis and rising mortgage rates from Fortune. Join them for a blend of laughs and insights in today's financial seas.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

S&P 500 Sector Performance (Bloomberg)

Key Fed inflation measure rose 0.4% in January as expected, up 2.8% from a year ago (CNBC)

Core services less shelter inflation is a key metric that the Fed follows, also known as SuperCore Inflation (The Kobeisissi Letter via X)

Rent is driving inflation. But there’s something off in the data (Washington Post)

Pending homes sales are officially back below 2008 levels in the US (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’ (Fortune)

Hack A Massive Discount On A Mortgage & The Fed Ain't Playing

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The boys start the show right off the bat with a commonly asked about mortgage hack that will actually save you a whole lot of money. The problem is that it isn't really something too many people actually do. It requires discipline, planning and making sure your bank applies the payments correctly. The rest of the episode is spent diving in to the Fed and their rate cut paradigm. By all outward measures, the FOMC should take a victory lap in that they have gotten inflation back in line while employment remains strong according to the data. You do know that Chris, Saied and Haroon already don't trust the jobs reports though. Episode 219 of The Higher Standard brings you a lot to think about as far as what may come for the economy and how to plan for your financial future. Also, Chris needs to stop doing drugs, he thinks he can take The Rock.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Interest rate cut expectations continue to scale back (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets Less eliminations from consolidation (St. Louis Fed FRED Economic Data)

Fed Minutes show unease over premature cuts (Wall Street Journal)

Economic Conspiracy, Trump Sneakers & AI Problems

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The boys are off and running with shenanigans from the beginning. Haroon inadvertently opens his energy drink before the show started so he can't entertain you with his usual unnecessary interruptions, but don't worry, he filled his can with water for reasons we still don't fully understand. They spend a good amount of time recapping Jerome Powell's commentary from Jackson Hole, Wyoming which were clearly designed to strike fear in to the markets. One of their favorite economists, Mohamed El-Erian is very concerned that the Fed's actions to date may have 'destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand.' Which was a fantastic segue in to the complete trash nonsense that Zillow is attempting to market. What do you do when home affordability is at an all time low? Rates are rising, home values haven't come down. Well, if you're Zillow, you offer a 1% down payment program to lure in homebuyers so you can sell more leads to Realtors.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Japan is no longer the world's third-largest economy as it slips into recession (CNBC)

0.3% decline in Q4 GDP (Mohamed A. El-Erian via X)

U.S. Layoffs more than double month-over-month to start 2024 (Yahoo Finance)

Frigid temperatures chill US retail sales, factory production (Reuters)

Investors bought 26% of low-priced US homes that sold in Q4 2023 (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Excess Supply Of Apartment Deliveries Now, But Possible Shortages By 2026 (Forbes)

What to know about the debut of Trump's $399 golden, high-top sneakers (NPR)

Data Show the Economy Is Booming. Wall Street Thinks Otherwise (The Wall Street Journal)

Mountains Of Debt, Influencers Are Fake & Circle Of Trust

Tue, 20 Feb 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Dive into the financial deep end with Chris, Saied, and Haroon for episode 217 of The Higher Standard podcast where they slice through the week's money maze with sharp wit and wisdom. From the dizzying heights of household debt mountains—mortgages to credit cards—revealed by The Kobeissi Letter, to decoding the inflation crystal ball before the big CPI reveal of 2024, they've got you covered. Don't miss their take on TikTok's "get-rich-quick" gurus, where the math's as fuzzy as a two-dollar wig, and the Airbnb arbitrage scandal that's left investors with pockets emptier than a politician's promises. They are brining all the smoke and dropping names of some of the most cliché of “influencers.” It's all about keeping it real with laughs, insights, and advice that could just save your financial bacon. Tune in for a rollercoaster ride through the money matters that matter!

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Household debt, mortgages, auto loans, student loans, and credit card debt (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

The first big inflation report of 2024 is coming out. Here’s what the CPI is likely to show (Market Watch)

TikTok Influencers Promise They’ll Make You Rich. The Math Doesn’t Add Up (Rolling Stone)

Investors in Airbnb arbitrage business allege they were defrauded in scheme promising ‘higher returns than the stock market’ (CNBC)

Jerome Powell Did Community Banks Dirty

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 02:00:00 -0700

In this exhilarating episode 216 of The Higher Standard Podcast, Chris, Saied, and Haroon dive into the the tumultuous tumble of regional bank stocks, led by New York Community Bancorp's dramatic diva moment — cutting dividends and flaunting losses like it's going out of style. But don't let NYCB's solo act fool you; while they're busy singing the blues and getting sued by shareholders for a throwback to their 1997 stock price, Moody’s isn't here for the nostalgia, slapping them with a junk rating faster than you can say "financial meltdown." Meanwhile, Powell plays it cool, promising rate cuts with the enthusiasm of a parent telling their kids they’ll think about getting a puppy.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Regional Bank Stocks Fall After New York Community Bancorp Cuts Dividend, Posts Loss (The Wall Street Journal)

New York Community Bank’s Problems Look Mostly to Be Its Own (The Wall Street Journal)

New York Community Bancorp is sued by shareholders as stock sinks to 1997 level (Reuters)

Moody’s Cuts NYCB to Junk, Extending Sharp Decline in Shares (The Wall Street Journal)

Powell insists the Fed will move carefully on rate cuts, with probably fewer than the market expects(CNBC)

Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says (CNBC)

A Big Week, FinTech Bubble 2.0 & A Bezos Mentorship

Tue, 06 Feb 2024 02:00:00 -0700

With this weekly cadence, the boys have a jam packed episode of data and things to challenge your perspective about what's going on in the market. They hit CRE and office prices, the yield curve inversion, corporate debt defaults and even a theoretical Tech Bubble 2.0 discussion. Lots of charts, lots of fun and all The Higher Standard you can handle.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Key events this week (Kobeissi Letter via X)

14% of all CRE loans and 44% of office buildings loans are now in negative equity (Kobeissi Letter via X)

The inventor of Wall Street's favorite recession indicator predicts a slowdown this year - and slams the Fed for making things worse (Business Insider)

Corporate debt defaults soared 80% in 2023 and could be high again this year, S&P says (CNBC)

'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession (Business Insider)

The S&P 500 is back at a record level for the first time in 2 years (Mohamed A. El-Erian via X)

Fed’s favorite inflation gauge rose 0.2% in December and was up 2.9% from a year ago (CNBC)

Jeff Bezos shares his childhood working on a ranch (MoneyCelebs via YouTube)

Your Best First Investments, Home Sales & Repos

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The Higher Standard is back, fresh off their new once a week cadence. It feels equally as weird for Chris, Saied and Haroon. Behind the scenes, our boy Hayden, is getting up to speed on all the editing work. The end goal is to bring you all better content, better shows and better guests. We start off episode 214 with a hard look at the housing market and where it could be going. Chris expresses concerns for the "repo" market and the pressure it may ultimately put on the Fed to cut rates earlier than expected. Then the boys dive in to a long segment on saving and investing your twenties, why that's so important and what you can do to build wealth right now!

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2023 was the worst year to buy a house since the 1990s. But there's hope for 2024 (NPR)

December home sales slump to close out worst year since 1995 (CNBC)

In the Market: Repo market may throw a fit, spur Fed to action (Reuters)

Here’s why it’s so important to start saving and investing in your 20s (CNBC)

The Last Thursday, Bostic Is A Hater & Cash Is Moving

Tue, 23 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

This was a sad episode. Reluctantly, the boys have decided to try and change things up a bit by going from two shows a week down to one. Chris, Saied and Haroon are eliminating the Friday episode so that they can focus on improving the quality of content and growing the brand. They say the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I guess we are a little crazy. But not as crazy as the CEO who was the most accurate home-price forecaster in 2023. Chris has objections to that stance. The Fed's Raphael Bostic expects rate cuts to happen in the third quarter and Saied is convinced they are trying to scare the economy out of the optimism. And the Biden administration may have actually got something right for once. We are as shocked as you are.

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This CEO was the most accurate home-price forecaster in 2023. Here’s what he expects for 2024 (Fast Company)

The $8.8 Trillion Cash Pile That Has Stock-Market Bulls Salivating (Wall Street Journal)

Fed’s Raphael Bostic expects rate cuts to happen in the third quarter (CNBC)

Macy’s to Cut About 2,350 Jobs, Close Five Stores (Wall Street Journal)

Biden administration unveils proposed changes to big banks’ overdraft fees (CNBC)

The Truth About The Data & We Are Changing

Fri, 19 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

The boys stepped in to the studio a little saucy from an earlier business meeting over steaks and adult beverages. So much so that they forgot to do the introduction of the show. After 20 minutes of a sobriety check, they hop in to a recession discussion pointing out that history is pretty clear that we have not in fact avoided a recession. Although Chris disagreed with an article from The Wall Street Journal, he thought it was worthwhile to share for additional recession perspective. Saied breaks down the massive 2023 economic loss as he take a victory lap for calling it a year in advance. And, despite what you heard, Wall Street is not buying all the homes and driving up home prices. Oh! And Haroon sounds like Grover.

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Recession avoided? History says otherwise (CNN)

It Won’t Be a Recession—It Will Just Feel Like One (Wall Street Journal)

Fed reports record loss for 2023 amid surge in interest expenses (Reuters)

No, Wall Street investors haven’t bought 44% of homes this year (Housing Wire)

Office Space, Crypto, CPI & A Strange Suit

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied and Haroon kick off the show with a slow and sexy leisurely introduction. They know the road ahead is filled with some dark data and wanted you to be nice and warm for the cold, hard truth. Then the roundhouse of data which signals that office space has hit an all time high vacancy number across the country. A sign of the potential challenges that are on the horizon for the sector. Then in a surprising turn of events, a Bitcoin ETF was actually approved by the SEC. The Higher Stand was stunned at this move after all the open criticism from high ranking government officials and long respected investors like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, not to mention Jamie Dimon is openly not a fan. The new inflation report is in and after cooling most of 2023, it is back up incrementally. Then the boys spend a good amount of time breaking down the newly announced $100 million dollar lawsuit filed by Grant Cardone against John Legere for defamation.

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Offices Around America Hit a New Vacancy Record (Wall Street Journal)

Here’s what a bitcoin ETF actually means for investors (CNBC)

Inflation Edged Up in December After Rapid Cooling Most of 2023 (Wall Street Journal)

Finance guru Grant Cardone slaps telecom big John Legere with $100M defamation suit (New York Post)

Mounting Debt, Real Estate Agents & Drugs

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

This is an eclectic episode where the boys talk about boiling frogs and somehow relate it to the $34 trillion mountain of nation debt. Then they dive right in to how the pain in the real estate market is now beginning to have a heavy impact on Realtors with 45% of US real estate agents saying they're struggling to pay rent. If buying a home wasn't bad enough, home and auto insurance is becoming nothing short of impossible. It could be worse though, if you're the National Association of Realtors president who announced she is resigning after a "blackmail threat." Then to cap off the show, Chris, Saied and Haroon dive in to how the insanely high rent in most markets is impacting Gen Z.

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The $34 trillion mountain of national debt is a 'boiling frog' situation for the US economy, JPMorgan warns (Business Insider)

‘Incredible distortions in our marketplace’: 45% of US real estate agents say they're struggling to pay rent — another bad omen for the housing market. But 2024 could be better (Money Wise)

Buying Home and Auto Insurance Is Becoming Impossible (Wall Street Journal)

Rent is so expensive for Gen Zers that almost one-third are living with their parents, new report finds (Fortune)

National Association of Realtors president says she is resigning after blackmail threat (CNBC)

We Have Not Avoided A Recession Yet

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Despite all the positive commentary regarding the increasing likelihood of a "soft landing," Chris, Saied and Haroon are not convinced that the economy is in a good place. Episode 209 kicks off with a look at the looming CPI report data and US national debt. Then they break down how the Fed has stopped talking about a recession for three consecutive meetings in a row now. The Higher Standard boys urge you not to make the same mistake that many made during the dot-com and housing bubbles because they believe The Great Correction is coming.

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What To Look For From The December 2023 CPI Report (Forbes)

US national debt hits record $34 trillion as Congress gears up for funding fight (Yahoo! Finance)

The Federal Reserve is done talking about recession (Business Insider)

A soft landing for US economy is 'increasingly conceivable' but not 'inevitable': Fed's Barkin (Yahoo! Finance)

Recession deniers are making the same mistake as during the dot-com and housing bubbles, top economist David Rosenberg says (Business Insider)

5 Best Money Resolutions for the Middle Class, According to Experts (Yahoo! Finance)

Fed Minutes Suggest Rate Hikes Are Over, but Offer No Timetable on Cuts (Wall Street Journal)

Cash Or Trash And $100 For That Ass

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Trying something new, Chris, Saied and Haroon wanted to play a little game of "Cash or Trash." In this game they asked for you, the listener, to ask any questions you wanted to or name a popular social media personality you wanted to hear their opinion on. The idea was not to disparage anyone, but provide a roadmap and some insight in to what we look at when trying to determine if someone on social media is what they are representing themselves to be. Since The Higher Standard has not done an episode like this before, we really want to hear your thoughts. Did you like it or was it "trash?"

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2024 Global Investment Outlook (BlackRock)

Happy New Year, Real Estate & Recession Red Flags

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 02:00:00 -0700

Happy New Year friends! The Higher Standard is kicking off the year with some heat to make you think about all the positive data you are hearing. Chris and Saied were in the studio just before New Year's Eve to cook up this banger for you, while Haroon remained out on a prolongated PTO. He may be out on a sabbatical at this point. The boys dive in to the home prices and some red flags you need to be aware of. Then after giving you the you the good, bad and the ugly, they drop seven reasons why there is likely to be a recession in 2024. We hope it makes you think about what is in store for the year. Thank you for a wonderful 2023 and for supporting the show!

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Home prices are up in all major U.S. cities, except one (CNBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram )

2023 Home Price Growth, by City (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

End of the Middle-Class Dream? (Newsweek)

Home prices to heat up after Fed rate cuts with 88% of market overvalued (Business Insider)

U.S. Pending Home Sales Stuck At 22-Year Low Despite Falling Rates (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

10-Year Treasury Yield Sees Biggest December Drop Since 2008 Crisis (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Recession Outlook 2024: 6 reasons why a 2024 downturn looms RBC says (Business Insider)

Nike Translated, Silent Depression & No Pigeons

Tue, 26 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

That's right! While most other podcasts are on a winter break, The Higher Standard boys are still bringing you some fresh content the day after Christmas. We cover all the topics you want to hear most in this holiday banger. Mortgage rates could soon drop to 6.5% and Saied, Chris and Haroon will tell you why they know that is likely to be true. The housing market slowdown is rippling through the economy. Nike sinks 10% after it slashes their sales outlook leading to $2 billion in cost cuts. And, finally, we top you of with a U.S. is in a silent depression debate. 2023 isn't over yet, let's gooooooooo!

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Mortgage Rates Could Soon Drop to 6.5%. The Bond Rally Helps (Barron’s)

How the Housing Market Slowdown Is Rippling Through the Economy in Five Charts (Wall Street Journal)

Nike sinks 10% after it slashes sales outlook, unveils $2 billion in cost cuts (CNBC)

Is the U.S. in a ‘silent depression?’ Economists weigh in on the viral TikTok theory (CNBC)

Patrick Bet-David's Reverse Market Crash Exposed

Fri, 22 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

As fans of Patrick Bet-David, Chris, Saied and Haroon were getting asked to review his "Reverse Market Crash: The Worst Possible Economic Outcome" video on YouTube. So we thought we would take a stab at watching it for the first time live and giving you our visceral and real reactions to it. It should be no surprise that The Higher Standard boys agree with many of PBD's points; however, they do clearly disagree on some of it. Oh and yeah, we went full clickbait with the thumbnail and title. We blame our marketing department, Haroon.

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Patrick Bet-David (Wikipedia)

Reverse Market Crash: The Worst Possible Economic Outcome (Valuetainment via YouTube)

Tumultuous Times Ahead, Haroon On PTO & Uncertainty

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Spoiler alert, Haroon is once again out on PTO. Man, The Higher Standard podcast must have some incredible employee benefits. So to honor the unsupervised recording, Chris and Saied elected to go almost entirely off script. No show notes, no structure, just two old friends talking about the economy and their lives. Chris and Saied dive in to what a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy means for you. They hop in to regional bank indexes pivoting past their "contagion period" losses to erase all the damage done by Silicon Valley Bank's collapse. And, the boys go H.A.M. on Janet Yellen who predicted a soft landing for the U.S. economy. This episode was so good that Haroon actually text the boys that he thought it was a really good listen and we all know he hates listening to this show.

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Economists now predict the U.S. is heading for a soft landing. Here's what that means.. (CBS News)

Regional bank indexes just erased all losses since the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (Yahoo! Finance)

Janet Yellen on Why She Predicts a Soft Landing for the U.S. Economy (The Wall Street Journal)

No One Knows What Happens Next & The Two Comma Club

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

After a brief hiatus, the boys are back and ready for the December 12-13 FOMC meeting results. They already know it's going to be a "pause," but Chris, Saied and Haroon predict what they think will be the rhetoric coming out of the meeting. More likely than not is a rally based on pure market optimism. The boys pivot to a thorough breakdown of the wealth stratification in America today because we have reached an alarming milestone. The top 1% of American earners now own more wealth than the entire middle class. Lastly, they round out the show with a discussion regarding the housing market and what lower rates could do to the economy while Larry Summers issues a sharp warning for the real estate entrepreneur bros.

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A 'severe recession' may be coming in 2024 as the stock market, job market flash warning signs, strategist says(Business Insider)

The top 1% of American earners now own more wealth than the entire middle class (USA Today)

Homebuyer conundrum: If mortgage rates fall, bidding wars will follow, expert says (Yahoo! Finance)

Home prices will fall for the first time since 2012, Redfin’s chief economist predicts. Here’s why they will still be ‘out of reach’ for many buyers (Fortune)

Here's Where Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Are Heading, According to Zillow and Redfin (Money)

Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan says YOLO spenders aren’t wrung out just yet: They’re ‘in pretty decent shape’ (Fortune)

The Fed will spark a 'seismic moment' if it cuts rates, and should wait for overwhelming evidence the economy is slowing, Larry Summers says (Business Insider)

How many times will the Fed cut rates? Here's what Wall Street expects for the key stock-market driver in 2024 (Business Insider)

Jordan Franks | From Football To Finance

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Jordan Franks is a fan of The Higher Standard having heard about it from the one and only Mind Pump! Having a huge personal interest in finance and building wealth has helped this former professional football player pivot to post football life with a zeal toward building his next chapter with the same discipline and commitment. After an impressive college football career at Jordan played in the National Football League (NFL) for the Cincinnati Bengals and Cleveland Browns. He capped his career by winning Super Bowl LVII as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs in 2022 just before his retirement. It's a fascinating episode with an inside look at how he plans to build wealthy moving forward, how NFL athletes are paid and his thoughts on the economy.

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Jordan's Links:

Personal Training Website

Instagram

Wikipedia

Inflation Doesn't Solve All Problems & RIP Charlie Munger

Tue, 05 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied and Haroon are back and trying to read the economic tea leaves to help us all figure out what may or may not happen next. Inflation cooled in October, but that doesn’t mean we have officially “beaten it.” But, even the Fed’s Waller is out sounding confident that we have. There has been a strong pull back in consumer spending, which the boys think is really good news for the battle against inflation. The cost-of-living squeeze isn’t getting much better though. Don’t forget that inflation dropping to the target of 2% still means things are getting slowly more expensive. Even though all this is happening, cash hoarding investors are ready to invest in the market when the time is right. Lastly, the great Charlie Munger has left us and the boy are slightly devastated in their own, special comedic way. May he rest in peace.

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Inflation continued to cool in October (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math (Bloomberg)

Consumers Pulled Back on Spending, Inflation Eased in October (Wall Street Journal)

Median New vs. Existing Home Sale Price (Kobeissi Letter via X)

Fed’s Waller expresses confidence that policy is in the right place to bring down inflation (CNBC)

Investors Are Hungry for Risk—and Holding Record Cash Sums (Wall Street Journal)

Charlie Munger, Who Helped Buffett Build Berkshire, Dies at 99 (Bloomberg)

The Current State of Housing & It's Not Our Fault

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 02:00:00 -0700

In a jam packed episode 198, Chris, Saied and Haroon are very caffeinated and coming in hot. You can just feel the palpable stench of the powerful combination of sarcasm and data. Kicking off the show, the boys jump into US holiday retail sales. They quickly pivot to how much the “typical American” has in a 401(k) account. Then wham! Its all housing market updates all day for you the rest of the way. Almost too much data for you to handle. I guess that’s why we are the #1 financial literacy podcast in the world isn’t it? Let’s go!

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Growth in US holiday retail sales (CNBC Chart Of The Day via Instagram)

Here's how much — or little — the typical American has in a 401(k) (CBS News)

Stocks, houses, and commercial real estate are all expensive – and prices are under 'notable' pressure, Fed economists say (Business Insider)

40% of all US homes currently don't have mortgages (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Existing Home sales drop again in October (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Home prices are falling fastest in these 25 cities, helping buyers escape the least affordable housing market since 1985 (Business Insider)

‘To buy or not to buy, that is the question’: BofA reveals rent is cheaper than mortgages in all but two of 97 major metros (Fortune)

OpenAI brings Sam Altman back as CEO less than a week after he was fired by board (CNBC)

A Market Crash, Housing Impossible & Not So Open AI

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Yea though I walk through the valley of the shadow of the recession, I shall fear no Gary Shilling. Gary has been a permanent bear in the markets, but he did call and make a lot of money of The Great Recession. Now he is saying you can expect stocks may crash 30%, a recession looks imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst. We give you 8 of his best quotes from a new interview. Chris, Saied and Haroon once again break down the impossible mess of the housing market. And, then place all tray tables and seat backs in their locked and upright positions because the boys are going all in on OpenAI's massive CEO debacle.

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Stocks may crash 30%, a recession looks imminent, and commercial real estate is a bubble about to burst, market prophet says. Here are Gary Shilling's 8 best quotes from a new interview (Business Insider)

The US Housing Market Has Become an Impossible Mess (Bloomberg)

OpenAI Investors Try to Get Sam Altman Back as CEO After Sudden Firing (Wall Street Journal)

OpenAI’s Unusual Corporate Structure Gave the Board Complete Control (Chartr Daily via Instagram)

Inflation Drops, NAR Gets Popped & Racks and Bibles

Fri, 24 Nov 2023 02:00:00 -0700

October is in and it appears to have moderated, cooling measurably more than anticipated. Consumer prices rose 3.2 percent in the year through October, decelerating from the previous month and showing encouraging signs under the surface, but is it enough to keep Jerome Powell and The Fed data dependent and focused on the potential for future rate cuts? Saied, Chris and Haroon breakdown what they think "higher for longer" may mean and what you should actually expect. Walmart CEO says "deflation could be coming this holiday season" and the boys take the opportunity to remind you that they feel we are already in an earnings recession. Lastly, what would an episode of The Higher Standard be without a healthy degree of trash talk? Did you know that almost no one else in the world pays a 6% real estate commission outside of Americans? Join the boys as they dive in to how the rest of the world buys and sells homes. Oh! And, full disclosure, everyone had a cocktail or two this episode.

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October Inflation Report (New York Times)

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020 (CNBC)

Deflation could be coming this holiday season, Walmart CEO says (CNBC)

Almost No One Pays a 6% Real-Estate Commission—Except Americans (Wall Street Journal)

The Recession Saga And A Market Adjustment

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world! It's The Higher Standard podcast. This episode Chris, Saied and Haroon continue to breakdown why they think we are likely already in a recession and the overwhelming likelihood that a "soft landing" was never actually possible. Owning a home has gotten way too unaffordable and despite the rhetoric from too many real estate economists, the boys think we have a long adjustment period in front of us. Lastly, there appears to be some mounting evidence that Airbnbs being banned actually helps rental rates go down in cities with new restrictions. All facts, no cap.

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Recession: The Stars Continue To Align (Forbes)

Owning a Home Has Gotten Pricey, Fast. A Market Adjustment Is Coming (Barrons)

The best evidence yet that banning Airbnbs will make rent go down (Business Insider)

JP Goes Hard, Nouriel Roubini Sells Out & Head Bobbing

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 02:00:00 -0700

This show, like Saied's jumper 15 years ago is "moist." The boys start off acknowledging there is a noticeable hum in Haroon's microphone. We apologize for the technical glitch. Jerome Powell finally proves he is about that life. Sadly, Chris, Saied and Haroon are horrified at one of their favorite economists selling out in the most hypocritical way possible. And, if that wasn't bad enough, Planet Fitness is raising prices so that you can get your Tootsie Roll and pizza treatments. This economy is out of control! Someone ring the "lunk" alarm things are getting out of control.

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Federal Reserve ‘Won’t Hesitate’ To Raise Rates Again If Necessary, Powell Says (Forbes)

Jerome Powell says to “Close the fucking door.” when climate protests interrupted his speech today (Wall Street Bets via Instagram)

Right Now Is a Bad Time to Spend Money (Wall Street Journal)

Crypto Critic Nouriel Roubini is Launching a Token (Yahoo! Finance)

Never Mind the 1%. Mini-Millionaires Are Where Wealth Is Growing Fastest (Wall Street Journal)

CHART OF THE DAY: Inflation will hit the Fed's 2% target by April and keep falling, analyst says (Business Insider)

Beloved fitness brand may have very bad news for customers (The Street)

Slowdown Signals Cooling Economy, SBF Will Die In Jail & 3 Amazing Reviews

Fri, 10 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Let's not mince words here, we got three spectacular reviews and they were the highlight of our night. Thank you to the listeners who made this episode extra special. The episode of The Higher Standard podcast is a ton of fun at every stop. The boys briefly touch on mortgage demand dropping to approximately 50% of pre-pandemic levels, a sharp slowdown in hiring and where to put your money while all this is going on. Saied couldn't resist diving head first in to Sam Bankman-Fried's most recent conviction on all seven federal charges against him and both Chris and Haroon show no sympathy. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end when the guys are simply at a loss for words.

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Mortgage demand is now down 50% from pre-pandemic levels (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Sharp U.S. Hiring Slowdown Signals Cooling Economy Ahead (Wall Street Journal)

If Interest Rates Are Peaking, What Investments Are Likely to Do Best? (Wall Street Journal)

Sam Bankman-Fried Is Convicted of Fraud in FTX Collapse (Wall Street Journal)

Sam Bankman-Fried found guilty on all seven criminal fraud counts (CNBC)

Desperately Faking Riches: Inside A Hong Kong Businessman’s Outlandish Efforts To Get On The Forbes Billionaire List (Forbes)

The Fed Leaves Rates Unchanged, Stickier Inflation & Finally M&A

Tue, 07 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0700

The boys called it, The Fed has left rates unchanged. Granted, it wasn't that hard of a call as all the data seemed to suggest that was the overwhelming likely result. Yet, somehow Jamie Dimon came out sounding hawkish after Jerome Powell came out dovish. Adjustable-rate mortgage demand jumps nearly 10% and Wells Fargo is now warning of a 1980s style recession. Confused, don't be. Saied, Chris and Haroon are here to break it all down and make sense out of all this chaos. All facts, no cap. Bars.

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The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s what that means for your wallet (CNBC)

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon suspects Fed 'may not be done' raising rates amid 'stickier' inflation (Yahoo! Finance)

Adjustable-rate mortgage demand jumps nearly 10% as buyers struggle to afford housing market (CNBC)

M&A to explode in 2024 as roughly 1,200 companies are expected to run out of money (Yahoo! Finance)

Housing Market Crash: Wells Fargo Warns of 1980s Recession (Investor Place)

Private sector payrolls rose 113,000 in October, less than expected, ADP says (CNBC)

What All This Debt Could Mean For You

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied and Haroon unpack the outstanding mortgage market by rate before hopping in to an example of how tenuous the business has become for lenders and their employees. Then they dive in to some chart work with sexy visual stimulus regarding the current state of the consumer credit market. To round off the show ahead of jumping in to Saied's self-inflated basketball ego, they boys take a look at Americans' net worth at every age.

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Outstanding mortgages by their mortgage rates (Kobeissi Letter via X)

The Mortgage Market Is So Bad Lenders Want Ex-Employees to Give Back Their Bonuses (Wall Street Journal)

Credit card balances in the U.S. have crested at $1 trillion (CNBC Chart of the Day via Instagram)

Here’s Americans’ net worth at every age—for people under 35, it’s up 142% (CNBC)

Fed's preferred inflation gauge shows biggest monthly jump since May (Yahoo! Finance)

M&A to explode in 2024 as roughly 1,200 companies are expected to run out of money (Yahoo! Finance)

GDP, Economists, Consumption & Rates Cuts

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected, but Chris, Saied and Haroon aren't convinced this is a good thing. They look back at previous recessions and some of the GDP trending before and after declaration to try and determine if the newest GDP print really has any meaning. Mohammaed El-Erian seems to share many of the same fears regarding the impact of rates on the economy and is apparently equally as skeptical of the GDP print. Jamie Dimon then rips central banks a new one for being 100% dead wrong on economic forecasts. Then this dark episode takes a darker turn as The Fed's Raphael Bostic doesn't foresee a rate cut coming until "late 2024." And, for those of you who missed Haroon's desk pop of a Monster Energy mid-show, don't worry, he comes back strong in episode 189 of The Higher Standard.

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U.S. GDP grew at a 4.9% annual pace in the third quarter, better than expected (CNBC)

Strong GDP growth isn't a sign the US has escaped a recession, and interest rates are a big headwind to economic activity, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says (Business Insider)

Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts (CNBC)

Fed’s Raphael Bostic doesn’t foresee rate cuts coming until ‘late 2024’ (CNBC)

Housing Affordability, Realtor Problems & Saied Is Grumpy

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

From the very beginning of this data heavy episode Saied is salty, dare we say even – grump! Come for the discussion on housing affordability versus renting, mortgage rate debates and updates on the National Association of Realtors antitrust lawsuits. But, stay for the sassy attitude that Saied is bringing to the table. Listen as Chris and Haroon are attacked at every turn by an unprovoked attack.

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As mortgage rates hit 8% for the first time in 23 years, affordability continues to fall off a cliff (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

There’s Never Been a Worse Time to Buy Instead of Rent (Wall Street Journal)

America’s Downtowns Are Empty. Fixing Them Will Be Expensive (Wall Street Journal)

Is the ongoing run of Fed rate hikes “taking away the American dream”? This economist says so (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

Why the housing market is going from tough to terrible (CNN)

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 as Treasury yields soar (CNBC)

Morgan Stanley makes a bold, tough prediction for home prices next year (The Street)

Fastest declining Housing Markets (1-year drop) (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Rocky few months for NAR (The Real Deal via Instagram)

Real-Estate Commissions Could Be the Next Fee on the Chopping Block (Wall Street Journal)

Recession Red Flags, Home Sales Slow & Treasuries Pop

Tue, 24 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Your favorite bank CEO, Brian Moynihan is back at it again with a full on contradiction from just a year ago. Chris, Saied and Haroon waste no time calling him to the carpet. Not to be outdone, Peter Schiff pointed out that Bank of America has unrealized losses of approximately $47.8 billion dollars. The boys get in to home sales data which indicate that 2023 may be the slowest year since The Great Recession. Not helping things is the 10-year treasury which just moved above 5.00% for the first time since 2007. All the recession red flags are waving and The Higher Standard podcast is here to give you the raw, unfiltered truth.

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Resources:

Big banks are quietly cutting thousands of employees, and more layoffs are coming (CNBC)

Bank of America warned consumers they would be pushed to the ‘point of pain’—and CEO Brian Moynihan says we’ve now reached that point (Fortune)

BoA lost $47.8 Billion (Peter Schiff via Instagram)

Home Sales on Track for Slowest Year Since Housing Bust (Wall Street Journal)

10-year Treasury yield breaks above 4.9% for the first time since 2007 (CNBC)

Morgan Stanley shares fall over 6% as wealth management results disappoint (CNBC)

Oil jumps as Iran increases rhetoric against Israel, US stockpiles drop (Yahoo! Finance)

Rents Dropping, Syndications Popping & Apple Juice

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Spoiler alert, it's cheaper to rent than it is to buy in many markets and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to break it all down. They use the Austin market, which was a major growth market during the pandemic, as a prime example of the stress that may be forcing rental rates further down. They take a break to celebrate some of the nation's top colleges eliminating student loans entirely, but then get back to the apartment market by citing Miami's downward rental trends. Finally, to cap the show, Chris and Saied talk a whole lot of trash about novice syndicators like Brad Sumrok. Oh, and apparently Haroon opens up apple juice jars with his rear end.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Mortgage Cost Surge Makes It Cheaper to Rent in Tough US Market (Bloomberg)

Austin has over 120K apartments in pipeline (The Real Deal

Some of the nation’s top colleges are eliminating student loans (CNBC)

Miami’s Rental Market Roller Coaster Is Headed Downhill (Wall Street Journal)

Multifamily mentor Brad Sumrok built an empire. Now, the cracks are showing (The Real Deal)

CPI & PPI Swing, A Housing Bubble & Fraud

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Saied, Chris and Haroon are back in the lab with a fun filled dive in to the wild swings of CPI, PPI and a full breakdown on whether or not this will ultimately influence the Fed's next meeting. The boys unpack some housing data and similarities to The Great Recession's housing market bubble and today.

Sponsored By Transcend Company:

Resources:

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than expected (CNBC)

September PPI inflation rises above expectations (The Kobeissi Letter via X)

Dollar steady on underlying moderate PPI data, dovish Fed officials (Reuters)

Incomes are falling in 17 states. Here's where Americans are falling furthest behind (CBS News)

The housing market looks like a bubble, 2008 regulator says (CNN)

Goldman Sachs says home prices are now more unaffordable for the average buyer than they were during the 2008 housing bubble. Here are the 2 things they say would have to happen for home prices to crash (Business Insider)

Auto-loan interest rates are now at their highest since 2008 (The kobeissi Letter)

How this 77-year-old widow lost $661,000 in a common tech scam: ‘I realized I had been defrauded of everything’(CNBC)

Housing industry urges Powell to stop raising interest rates or risk an economic hard landing (CNBC)

Wholesale inflation rose 0.5% in September, more than expected (CNBC)

Fed officials see ‘restrictive’ policy staying in place until inflation eases, minutes show (CNBC)

Bankman-Fried was very concerned about his image, including his big hair, ex-girlfriend Ellison testifies (CNBC)

What This Crazy Bond Market Means For You

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Chris, Saied and Haroon have been building up slowly on our collective knowledge and discussions about the bond market. Well, in this episode we put it all together and talk about how its current status is likely going to impact you and all the news you're hearing. But first, the boys jump in to some compelling financial facts they quote from one of their favorite X pages - The Kobeissi Letter. One of the boys' favorite economists Mohamed A. El-Erian says that "something is likely to break" after the most recent jobs data came out. And, we are in the worst bond selloff since 1787 which allegedly ends the "Free-Money" era. Chris and Saied also lovingly sound off on Internet trolls because it wouldn't be an episode of The Higher Standard without some sassy banter.

Resources:

The Kobeissi Letter (via X)

How much can and should the government borrow? (Bloomberg Opinion via Instagram)

The 5% bond market means pain is heading everyone’s way (Bloomberg)

‘Something Is Likely to Break’ After Jobs Data, El-Erian Says (Bloomberg)

Markets Brief: Will Bond Yields Top 5%? (Morningstar)

Long Bonds’ Historic 46% Meltdown Rivals Burst of Dot-Com Bubble (Bloomberg)

Worst US Bond Selloff Since 1787 Marks End of Free-Money Era (Bloomberg)

Redfin v. NAR, Housing, Squatting & Sex Talk

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Redfin can't cut ties will the National Association of Realtors ("NAR") because they have a monopoly over the Multiple Listing Service or "MLS." The MLS is a database established by cooperating real estate brokers to provide data about properties for sale and it is under the sole dominion and control of NAR. The MLS allows Realtors to see one another's listings of properties for sale with the goal of connecting homebuyers to sellers. There is only one problem, you have to belong to NAR to have access to it. Chris, Saied and Haroon get in to and give you their perspective of how this looming fight may shake out. Saied then pivots to an article by the Wall Street Journal in which they break down the elements of why your home may not be selling. Lastly, Chris goes deep on the Brentwood Airbnb tenant who has refused to leave and has not paid rent in over 540 days that made national headlines. Also, fun fact, Haroon belongs to a very curious WhatsApp thread titled "Sex Talk" which he states he uses the end-to-end encryption service to talk to friends about "sports." Does he have a valid excuse? Tune in to find out...

Resources:

NAR’t so easy: MLS control means partners can’t make a clean break (The Real Deal)

Why Is Your Home Not Selling? 5 Reasons It’s Sitting on the Market (Wall Street Journal)

Brentwood Airbnb tenant refuses to leave or pay rent for 540 days (The Real Deal)

Everything You Need to Know About The Fed

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

You asked for it and we heard you. Today's episode is a focused single topic edition with a deep dive in to everything you need to know about The Fed. How its Board functions, how they get the positions and more. Of course we had to take a few shots at Neel Kashkari because he often has an opinion that frustrates Chris and Saied. Then as a special ending, we cap the show with an homage to Saied's favorite topic, cryptocurrency. We cover five strange facts about Sam Bankman-Fried that are shockingly true. Stay tuned all the way to the end because some of these will blow you away.

Resources:

The 5 weirdest Sam Bankman-Fried stories Michael Lewis told to ’60 Minutes’ (Market Watch)

Meaningfully Higher, Global Economy, ARMs & Aloha

Tue, 03 Oct 2023 05:00:00 -0700

After a long needed week off of production, the boys are back in the studio. Haroon kicks off the episode by actually making sure that all three red lights are on to ensure that no video or audio will be missed for this reunion episode. Chris spent a week in Kauai and returns to Saied and Haroon with some new found emotional warmth, no jokes about the male anatomy, but plenty of "aloha!" Jumping right in to things, Chris discusses how frustrated he is with the clickbait title and interview by The Fed's Kashkari to Yahoo! Finance. Then Saied and Chris go down a long rabbit hole of what holding rates "higher for longer" actually means for the global economy and not just the United States. For those of you who want to know "Is Saied still coughing every damn episode?" The answer is absolutely and we leave every single one in the show to annoy you as much as it annoys us.

Resources:

Fed's Kashkari: 40% chance of needing 'meaningfully' higher rates (Yahoo! Finance)

What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates? (Reuters)

Rising Loan Costs Are Hurting Riskier Companies (Wall Street Journal)

The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator rose less than expected in August (CNBC)

Listener Appreciation Q&A Episode

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Saied, Haroon and Chris wanted to find a way to give back to the THS community and "thank you" all for your support. We know that at times we can't and don't always answer questions in the "DMs" as well as we would like to. So, we posted a Q&A opportunity on our respective Instagram accounts. We were overwhelmed with the wonderful questions asked and we can't thank each and every single one of you enough. This show is literally funded by your small gestures. Honest five star reviews and your engagement make long nights of editing, mixing and mastering audio for streaming and managing social media accounts worth it. The Higher Standard podcast is what is today because you have enabled us to keep going. Since we got so many questions, we will be trying to do more Q&As and make actually attempt to do a live show on YouTube in the not too distant future. Until then, we hope you enjoy the episode.

Resources:

Everything You Need to Know About the Bond Market (The Motley Fool)

10-Year Treasury Bond Yield: What It IS and Why It Matters (Investopedia)

How the 10-year U.S. Treasury Note impacts mortgage rates (MCT Trading)

Fed’s interest rate history: The federal funds rate from 1981 to the present (Bankrate)

The Fed Holds, Housing Peaks & Saied Fisting

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

In a spectacular display of machismo, Saied gives Chris not one, but three separate fist pounds during this sensational episode. Maybe Saied was just happy that the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged? Maybe it was the Fed's terrible track record of forecasting what the economy is likely to do? I guess we will never know, but what you will know for sure after this show is that we may be in the biggest housing bubble ever, Zillow shifted their 2024 home price forecast down and 30-year mortgage rates have in fact hit 8%. Economic data, financial literacy and a healthy portion of fisting. What else could you ask for?

Resources:

The Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged. Here’s how it impacts your money (CNBC)

Take the Fed forecast with a grain of salt. It has a terrible track record (CNBC)

Biggest Housing Bubble Ever (Nick Gerli via X)

Zillow once again shifts its 2024 home price forecast. Here’s why (Fortune)

The Fed would be ‘flying blind’ on interest rate decisions after a government shutdown (CNBC)

30-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Again, Flirting with Historic Peak (Investopedia)

Fed Meeting, $100 Billion Loss & Saied is RFK, Jr.

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Please place all seat back and tray tables in their locked and upright positions, because you're about to go on a long voyage of economic data baby! Saied, Chris and Haroon are back and they have a lot to talk about in this episode. The September 20th Fed announcement hasn't even happened yet and Goldman Sachs is already saying that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates in November. So, naturally The Higher Standard had to chime in to the debate. Chris offers up a questionable segue into why a soft landing could not only be elusive, but then explains why the current Fed Policy is costing the Fed between $100 billion and $200 billion themselves. Chris and Saied then dive down deep in to the dark canyon of a hole that is the inverted yield curve where they discuss the wide spread between the 2-year and 10-year treasuries. Which also happens to be at it deepest inversion since 1981. Haroon provide an elegant hypothetical answer to an intimate personal question and legendary investor Jeremy Grantham is ringing alarm bells.

Resources:

Fed unlikely to raise rates in November, says Goldman Sachs (Reuters)

Why a Soft Landing Could Prove Elusive (Wall Street Journal)

Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise (Reuters)

Economist says S&P 500 will sink 40% due to recession (Business News)

Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81 (Reuters)

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham rang the alarm on stocks and recession, warned about the housing market, and hailed Elon Musk's Tesla. Here are his 10 best quotes from a recent event (Business Insider)

The bond market has broken the longest time ever with a 10-year field, 3 month inversion at 212 days per Bloomberg (Unusual Whales via Instagram)

Inflation, Income, Home Prices & A 3 Star Review

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

With an uncharacteristically early recording time, the boys come in extra hot and caffeinated. Saied finally admits to being 1 of the podcast's one star reviews; however, the show did receive a real, legitimate 3 star review from a listener. We wanted to address it head on and talk about the data behind the insurance position which upset someone. They, of course, save the expletive filled rage for the end of the show. This episode covers all the underlying detail of the latest inflation print which continues to show that the real cost of living is likely higher for most consumers. Then Chris and Saied pivot to an article on banks having $1.2 trillion dollars in "hot" deposits which they believe signals a much larger concern. Home prices according to Zillow seem to suggest that there have been tremendous gains still despite even some areas having lived through minor corrections in recent months. What does this mean? Saied and Chris will tell you their thoughts. Make sure to stay tuned all the way to the end because this one gets extra sassy in the last quarter of the show.

Resources:

Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2023, in one chart (CNBC)

Banks Load Up on $1.2 Trillion in Risky ‘Hot’ Deposits (Wall Street Journal)

Real incomes fell last year. No wonder Americans were bummed out (Axios)

Home price shift, as tracked by the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) (Lance Lambert via X)

August core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3%, hotter than expected (CNBC)

Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows (CNBC)

A HUGE Mistake, Goldilocks & Haroon Returns

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Haroon has returned and has already put in for his next PTO request in November where he thought he would be visiting the European country of Belize. While discovering that being Muslim is not an ethnicity, we quickly hop on over to a warning issued by JP Morgan's CEO, Jamie Dimon. Jamie D is suggesting that it would be a "huge mistake" to think the economy will boom. Yet, at the same time, new data suggests that the fall in home prices may already be over. Confused? Don't be, we explain what we think is happening. All three of us discuss the Fed's own economist's prediction of a "Goldilocks" scenario where we have no recession, low inflation, and positive growth. Then to cap the show Haroon provides some important life advice.

Resources:

Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there (CNBC)

The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over (Wall Street Journal)

The US is on course to build more apartments than ever in 2023 (Chartr Daily Instagram)

Business Bankruptcies Soar in August as Rising Interest Rates Bite (Bloomberg)

The Fed's own economists now expect a Goldilocks scenario: No recession, low inflation, and positive growth(Business Insider)

The man who bought the NYSE just made a $11.9 billion bet that he can fast-track your mortgage for far less than you’re paying now (Fortune)

Airbnb, Beige Book, Roku, WeWork & A Bromance

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

In their second show without Haroon, who continues to be out on PTO in “The Sac,” Chris and Saied decide to crack a few of their own cans during the show in order to pay homage. Shortly after lamenting the value of Haroon’s contributions they jump in to New York City’s crackdown on Airbnb and what this could mean if other cities follow suit. They examine the Fed’s Beige Book data, what it tells us about the Fed’s perspective going into the September Fed meeting and give their predictions on whether or not there will be another 25 bps rate increase to Fed Funds. They then pivot to Roku’s stock jumping after laying off 10% of their workforce while WeWork is reportedly renegotiating all of its leases. The round out the show by reading on the National Association of Realtors new class action lawsuit, but stop short of a full analysis because they are going to need more time to review the legal filings. It is an episode chalked full of laughs and facts, so make sure to wear your manpon.

Resources:

New York City's crackdown on Airbnb and short-term rental goes into effect (Guardian)

Fed's Beige Book Shows Slower Activity Growth and Hiring in Peak Summer (Bloomberg)

Roku stock jumps after company says it will lay off 10% of workforce (CNBC)

WeWork CEO says company is ‘here to stay’ as it renegotiates ‘nearly all our leases’ (CNBC)

Monumental NAR lawsuit snags class action status (The Real Deal)

Oh Yeah!, Insurance Changes & Happiness

Fri, 08 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

They boys open the show without Haroon who is once again out on PTO while he visits his in-laws in "Sac." They quickly jump in to a discussion regarding the changing landscape of home insurance in America. Many home insurers are starting to or have already cut natural disaster from policies as climate risks continue to mount. As a proxy, Chris and Saied leverage a Wall Street Journal article which asks the question "Are we ready for a $100 billion dollar catastrophe?" Global insured losses from natural disasters and the number of billion-dollar insured loss events worldwide have increased over time visibly. After all the negativity, Chris wanted to make a pivot in to something positive and highlights an article from CNBC which identifies the three things that Americans say define wealth in their mind. Shockingly none of them require making money, but most of them are a byproduct of making money. Without Haroon in the studio, you will need to pay homage to him by opening a beverage mid-show in order to cover for him in his obnoxious absence.

Resources:

The Fed's preferred inflation measure stayed high in July — and consumers are continuing to spend (CNN Business)

Bigger Pockets x The Data Deli Instagram (Instagram)

Full impact of Fed hikes still to be seen in real economy, ex-vice chair Blinder says (Reuters)

Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow (The Washington Post)

Are We Ready for a $100 Billion Catastrophe? How About $200 Billion? (The Wall Street Journal)

Americans say these 3 things define wealth -none of them require making a lot of money (CNBC)

Americans Are Bailing on Their Home Insurance (The Wall Street Journal)

Unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.8% in August as payrolls increased by 187,000 (CNBC)

Here's where the jobs are for August 2023 - in one chart (CNBC)

Shoppers pull back on 'big ticket' items as furniture, appliance sales lag (Yahoo! Finance)

99 Problems, But Mitch Ain't One

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

It was bad enough that Michael Burry - the investor who profited from the subprime mortgage crisis by shorting the 2007 mortgage bond market - just took a $1.6 billion dollar short on the market again. Now, the man, the myth, the legend is that the great investor in world history - Warren Buffett - has just dumped $8 billion dollars of stock and is moving to a cash position. The boy think these are very telling signs of an impending recessionary economy by two men who know what they are doing. At the same time, a new report out states that 61% of Americans are living paycheck-to-paycheck and US department stores are seeing higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending. It's a wild episode that is capped by a special collaboration between Mitch McConnell and Jay-Z.

Resources:

Warren Buffett just dumped $8 billion of stocks (here's why economists are worried) (The Street)

61% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck — inflation is still squeezing budgets (CNBC)

US department stores see higher credit delinquencies amid strained spending (Reuters)

US labor market loses steam as job openings, resignations decline (Reuters)

U.S. job growth slowed sharply to 177,000 in August, below expectations, ADP says (CNBC)

US consumer spending in July surges; weekly jobless claims fall (Yahoo! Finance)

Jerome Powell Makes Threats, Zillow Is Insane & Haroon Drinks Water

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Resources:

Fed Chair Powell calls inflation ‘too high’ and warns that ‘we are prepared to raise rates further’ (CNBC)

Jerome Powell says it ‘takes time’ for slowdown in rent rises to show up in the Fed’s inflation gauge (Market Watch)

Fed's Mester sees another rate hike, says rate cuts may have to wait (Reuters)

The Fed may have destroyed the housing market by crushing both supply and demand, top economist Mohamed El-Erian says (Business Insider)

Zillow offers 1% down payment to lure homebuyers as mortgage rates hit 22-year high (NY Post)

Goldman Sachs unloads another business acquired under CEO David Solomon (CNBC)

A 'valuation reset' hits the IPO market as Better stock crashes 90% after debut (Yahoo! Finance)

Why the Era of Historically Low Interest Rates Could Be Over (Wall Street Journal)

Rolling Recession, Mortgage Rates & Why Saied?

Tue, 29 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0700

After wasting an hour eating Chick-fil-A, the boys are off to a slow start this episode. Maybe it was the unnecessary amounts of sodium. After gaining some traction and coming out of a food coma, Chris dives in to the ideology of a “rolling recession” and what this could mean for you. They pivot in to an interesting Yahoo! Finance article on the American retailers and restaurants that are bracing for the impact of student loan payments restarting. Many of these topics we have all covered together before; however, there is more data and probable impacts that can be seen in the economy that should not be ignored. Chris and Saied navigate through 30-year mortgage rate and mortgage application charts suggesting that the trending is indicative of recessionary stress. And finally, you all get to hear the coughing that Haroon does behind the scenes which we edit out for your audio pleasure.

Resources:

The experience-hungry American consumer is already crashing the economy into a ‘rolling recession,’ Oxford Economics says (Fortune)

America's retailers and restaurants brace for a shock from student loan payments (Yahoo! Finance)

US 30-year mortgage rate soars to highest since 2000 (Reuters)

S&P just downgraded some big banks. Here are the 5 that are impacted (Yahoo! Finance)

Powell Is Using Jackson Hole as Final Push in Inflation Fight (Yahoo! Finance)

Home sales fall again in July, as supply drops to near quarter-century low (CNBC)

C&I Lending Is Shifting, Car Prices & How To Get Rich & Famous

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Business loans, also known as “Commercial and Industrial” lending is shifting as the landscape of the economy pivots. The boys break down what you need to know and what this means for you. They spend some time on the generational differences in the expectation of workers as they dive in to a CNBC article that states “American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job.” In what is arguably the world’s worst segue they jump in to the car market and some of the changes the industry is experiencing that are early indicators of strain on the consumer. Chris provides a colorful backstory on the never-ending “beef” between Nouriel Roubini and CZ. Saied awkwardly forces in an unnecessary article on mortgage rates to cap the show and Haroon fumbles the audio, but blames it on the “inter-webs.” We also got a new, spectacular review. We appreciate every single one, so much. Thank you! Also, if you haven’t, we are not friends. No pressure….

Resources:

Commercial and industrial lending falls again this week, but lending by small banks is up (Market Watch)

American workers are demanding almost $80,000 a year to take a new job (CNBC)

Car Prices Might Be Unsustainable for Buyers (Wall Street Journal)

How to Get Rich and Famous From a Stock Market Crash (Wall Street Journal)

Mortgage rates hit their highest point since 2000 (CNBC)

Toronto Mortgage Rates 1981 (Instagram)

Mortgage Rates, Fed Minutes & Janet Yellen Gets High

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0700

Well, damn it, mortgage rates just hit their highest level in 21 years and Chris, Saied and Haroon are here to tell you why. Spoiler alert, they think the yield curve inversion has something to do with it and that the 10-year treasury has more to move up before the end of the year signaling 8% to end the year for mortgage rates as a possibility. The Fed dropped their minutes where some of the FOMC members were apparently quoted as suggesting that another 25bps increase may be necessary; however, our Chief Economist is declaring shenanigans. Chris pops off on real estate company Compass and apparently Janet Yellen micro-doses mushrooms when she visits China.

Resources:

Mortgage Rates Just Hit Highest Level In 21 Years (Forbes)

Mortgage rates could hit 8%, economists say, citing a worrying sign not seen since the Great Recession (Market Watch)

Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show (CNBC)

Unpaid commissions key ingredient in Compass’ cash-flow positivity (The Real Deal)

Did Janet Yellen Accidentally Eat Psychedelics In China? What To Know About The Sold-Out Dish Cooked With Hallucinogenic Mushrooms (Forbes)

Here's when the San Francisco Fed expects households to run out of COVID-era extra savings (Morning Star)

Fed Saw ‘Significant’ Inflation Risk That May Merit More Hikes (Bloomberg)

How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’ (Wall Street Journal)

Wall Street Is Ready to Scoop Up Commercial Real Estate on the Cheap (Wall Street Journal)

Larry Wheels | Adversity Builds Character

Fri, 18 Aug 2023 05:00:00 -0700

In this captivating episode, we dive into the extraordinary life of Larry Wheels, a remarkable individual who's not only conquered the realms of bodybuilding, powerlifting, strongman and arm wrestling but has also taken the social media world by storm. Larry opens up about his journey, from being a teenage powerlifting prodigy to evolving into a multifaceted entertainer, influencer, and budding entrepreneur. In this hour-long interview, we explore Larry's candid reflections on his early use of performance-enhancing substances, shedding light on the challenges and lessons learned. As he shares his experiences, Larry also imparts invaluable wisdom for aspiring youth looking up to him, highlighting the importance of making informed decisions. The episode kicks off with Larry discussing his recent hospitalization due to a health scare involving Rhabdomyolysis, offering a raw and real glimpse into his life beyond the spotlight. Tune in for a conversation that goes beyond the surface, aiming to inspire and educate on "The Higher Standard." Also, please note, Saied was on vacation and only Chris and Haroon were present for the interview. Saied is still very salty about it, please don't mention it to him. This is our secret.

Larry's Links:

Larry Wheels Website

Larry's YouTube Channel

Larry's Brands:

Pump & Power Meal Prep

Transcend Company

Student Loan Repayment, Creating Wealth & Affordability

Tue, 15 Aug 2023 03:45:00 -0700

Episode 167 is here and, spoiler alert, it is not the promised Larry Wheels episode. Not to worry, that episode will drop in the days to come. In the meantime, please place all tray tables and setbacks in their locked and upright positions as the boys take you along on their fantastical journey of this sexy Tuesday’s financial literacy. This episode will give you a robust review of the impacts of the looming student loan repayment restarting post-pandemic, a deeper dive in to the average consumer credit card debt and what this means for the creation of wealth for generations to come. Chris says that while he does not want a recession, he is more scared of what happens to this country if we do not have one. While carefully navigating a small political discussion, the boys breakdown what could lead to the “smashing” of the middle-class. Of course, there is no better way to cap the show off than by basking in the tragic comedy that is the now infamous SBF’s most recent debacle.

Resources:

When student loan payments resume, 56% of borrowers say they’ll have to choose between their debt and buying groceries (CNBC)

Average consumer carries $5,947 in credit card debt — a 10-year high (CNBC)

Only 16% of Californians Can Afford to Buy a Home (Bloomberg)

Are You Rich? (Bloomberg)

Americans are moving further away for affordable homes and 'grandbabies' (Yahoo! Finance)

Judge Sends FTX’s Sam Bankman-Fried to Jail Ahead of Fraud Trial (Wall Street Journal)

Inflation Tamed, A Government Recession & Haroon Wears Salmon

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 04:00:00 -0700

The boys are finally back together again. Haroon has welcomed the birth of his second daughter and Saied is back from his family’s Hawaiian vacation. To start the show Chris, Saied and Haroon wanted to emphasize their thoughts and prayers are with the people of Maui who have been impacted by this tragic and devastating fire. After which, they jump in to Ray Dalio’s interesting recession perspective. Saied gives a complete rundown of July’s inflation numbers and Chris continues to declare that the JOLTs report is manipulated and can’t be trusted. Something interesting is happening in Minneapolis, home prices hit a record high in 60% of U.S. markets and credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion dollars. Then, despite Chris thinking that asking for reviews was a colossal waste of time, we got several new amazing honest five star reviews. This of course continues to prove that 50% of the time Chris is wrong, every time.

Resources:

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio says the Fed’s measures haven’t slowed consumers down, and the government is paying the price (Fortune)

July CPI report shows inflation gauge rose 3.2%, less than expected (CNBC)

US economy adds 187,000 July jobs in sign labor market is cooling (The Guardian)

First American City to Tame Inflation Owes Its Success to Affordable Housing (Bloomberg)

Home prices hit record highs in 60% of U.S. markets (CNBC)

Rental housing cost rises to ‘slow significantly’ over next 18 months, Fed researchers say (Market Watch)

Credit card debt hits a record high at $1 trillion, NY Fed says (Yahoo! Finance)

Americans are pulling money out of their 401(k) plans at an alarming rate (CNN Business)

July jobs report: U.S. payroll growth totaled 187,000, lower than expected (CNBC)

This Is When The Recession Arrives

Tue, 08 Aug 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Haroon starts off the show extra sassy by giving Chris a taste of his own medicine. Chris quickly jumps in to a CNBC article about how 1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city. The boys break down why Zillow tends to be bullish and their data should be looked at with caution. U.S bank lending is declining for the second straight week and Chris goes off on “tipflation” once again. He has been visceral every single time he talks about how out of control tipping has gotten. They round-out episode 165 by diving in to where starter homes are affordable and migration trends as reported by the always superior data source provider - Redfin. If you’ve read this far and you haven’t left us an “honest 5 star review,” we would appreciate you doing so now.

Resources:

1 in 4 U.S. homebuyers want to move to a different city—here’s the No. 1 place they’re looking (CNBC)

It’s Getting Even Harder to Afford a ‘Starter’ Home in the US (Bloomberg)

Zillow is so sure that U.S. home prices have bottomed that it just issued bullish calls for these 48 housing markets (Fortune)

U.S. bank lending declines for second straight week (Market Watch)

Clock on the Fed's 'soft landing' may already be ticking (Reuters)

3 places people say they never tip amid ‘tipflation’: ‘It’s out of control’ (CNBC)

One-Quarter of U.S. Homebuyers Are Looking to Relocate (Redfin)

Las Vegas Tops List of Popular Homebuyer Destinations For First Time, With West Coast Migrants Drawn to Cheaper Homes (Redfin)

Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years (CNBC)

How the U.S. Economy Is Sticking the Soft Landing (WSJ)

Austin Office, Luxury Homes & Dallas Aribnb

Fri, 04 Aug 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Finishing off their double header, the boys are back-to-back again and are ferociously diving in to the Austin office market, the luxury home market's new reality and some new changes in Dallas. Apparently Dallas' City Council has banned short-term rentals from "single-family areas." Oh, and Saied also thinks that this is a financial literary podcast where we discuss books about finance. Confused? So are we. Episode 164 of The Higher Standard is here to save the day.

Resources:

Austin office market hits record-high vacancy (The Real Deal)

The Luxury Home Market Confronts Its New Reality: Not Enough Buyers and Sellers (The Wall Street Journal)

The Dow sinks, snapping its longest run since 1987 (CNN Business)

Dallas City Council bans short-term rentals from single-family areas (Fox 4 News)

Biggest winners and losers from the Fed’s interest rate hike (Yahoo! News)

US economy defies recession fears with strong second-quarter performance (Yahoo! News)

A $5.5 trillion savings wipeout is raising risks for the US economy (Yahoo! News)

The Fed Raised Rates 25bps And The Boys Are Fed Up

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Welcome back to the number one financial literacy podcast in the world! It’s The Higher Standard. Saied, Chris and Haroon come out swinging in Episode 163 and they are no pulling in punches in their thoughts on The Fed’s latest 25bps interest rate increase. Join us as the boys go deep, real deep, in to the US economy, GDP and give you a historical look at the Fed Funds Rate with a 62 Year Historical Chart. It also marks the third episode of back-to-back appearances by Haroon who had been out sick for three consecutive episodes.

Resources:

US economy blows past expectations: 3 quick takeaways (The Hill)

GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls (CNBC)

Federal Funds Rate - 62 Year Historical Chart (Macrotrends)

Recession Odds Are A Joke & Saied Is Basically Drake

Fri, 28 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

In Episode 162 of The Higher Standard Podcast, Chris, Saied and Haroon discuss why they believe a majority of US Economists are wrong about their predictions on whether or not the US will be entering a recession. They explain how analysts track and predict earnings for US publicly traded companies and how A.I. has impacted this space. They dive in to earnings from American Express and how it showcases record spending. Chris takes it a step further by shedding light on the human condition of wanting to believe in optimism while some at JPMorgan believe the time to sell is still now. They round out the show by examining Tesla’s new 84-month financing option and stand their ground on why that would be a terrible option for you. We hope you enjoy because we did!

Resources:

American Express earnings show record spending: 'The U.S. consumer just looks really strong.' (Market Watch)

Economists See US Recession Odds at 50% or Less in New Survey (Bloomberg)

JPMorgan's Kolanovic Sticks to Stock Selloff Call Even as Market Defies Gloom (Bloomberg)

Blame the Fed? Tesla offers 84-month financing (Yahoo! Finance)

Cardone Gets A Spanking, Fed Now, Cry Later & Non-Recession, Recession

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Chris and Saied welcome back Haroon after being gone for a few episodes. The Huffington Post blasts "influencer" Grant Cardone in a sensational new article which speaks to many of the criticisms shared by Chris, Haroon and Saied on previous shows. Naturally, they get in to it and tell you how they really feel while providing insight in to why most of his purported investors don't understand what they are signing up for. They also explain how the Fed's looming instant payment modernization rollout is long overdue, but may be the first steps at a nationalized cryptocurrency. They dive in briefly to the rising homebuilder sentiment before wrapping up the show with Apollo's CEO description of a potential "non-recession" recession.

Resources:

Financial Influencer Grant Cardone Says He Can Make You A Billionaire. His Investors Claim He Defrauded Them (Huffington Post)

Here are 10 reasons why Wall Street’s inevitable recession never arrived (Market Watch)

Fed launches long-awaited instant payments service, modernizing system (Reuters)

Federal Reserve officially launches new FedNow instant-payments service (CNBC)

Fed launches new payments system that lets you send money in seconds (Yahoo Finance)

Apollo CEO: We are going to have a "non-recession" recession (YouTube & CNBC)

Homebuilder sentiment rises again in July, but builders warn higher mortgage rates are hurting (CNBC)

Why Do We Idolize and Admire Celebrities (Success Consciousness)

Disclaimer: Please note that the content shared on this show is solely for entertainment purposes and should not be considered legal or investment advice or attributed to any company. The views and opinions expressed are personal and not reflective of any entity. We do not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, and listeners are urged to seek professional advice before making any legal or financial decisions. By listening to The Higher Standard podcast you agree to these terms, and the show, its hosts and employees are not liable for any consequences arising from your use of the content.

Home Price Regression, Two Economists and Two Road Trips

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

According to Federal Reserve data, the median sales price of homes sold peaked in the final quarter of 2022, reaching $479,000 before rising mortgage rates brought them back down. But April's S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller report, which tracks national home-price changes, came in above expectations at 0.53% from the previous month. On the surface, the data suggests prices are on the rise again. But a July 11 note from Goldman Sachs strategists suggests that any optimism stemming from this lagging indicator would be premature.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss new checking and savings account data that shows Americans are better off now than before the pandemic, with nearly 10 to 15 percent more in their bank accounts than in 2019, despite new heights of inflation.

Chris and Saied look at data compiled by the research firm Equilar Inc., indicating that total pay for top Hollywood executives soared during the height of the pandemic to $1.43 billion in 2021, up 50% from 2018.

They also offer some thoughts on JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s Marko Kolanovic comments on the CPI for June, claiming that it has slightly increased the Federal Reserve’s chances of a “soft landing” — or taming inflation without triggering a downturn.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Goldman Sachs' predictions that home price growth is regressing in certain key cities.
Why a Nobel Prize-winning economist believes there's no need for the Fed to keep hiking rates.
Why the Federal Reserve needs to look hard at Milton Friedman's monetarism.
And so much more...

Resources:

"10 US cities where home-price growth is regressing the most as high mortgage rates worsen affordability, according to Goldman Sachs" (Insider)

"Nobel Prize-winning economist says there’s no need for the Fed to keep hiking interest rates" (CNBC)

"Jeremy Siegel says we are in a ‘Goldilocks economy’ and the Fed doesn’t need to raise interest rates anymore" (Fortune)

"Americans are still better off, with more in the bank than before the pandemic" (The Washington Post)

"Here's how much Hollywood executives make" (LA Times via Instagram)

"JP Morgan’s Kolanovic Sees ‘Modestly Wider’ Path to Soft Landing" (Bloomberg)

Inflation Breakdown and How to Interview for a Job

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Goldman Sachs has embraced a new plan to avoid a third straight quarter of disappointing investors on earnings day. Breaking with its own long-standing convention, Goldman executives have been actively downplaying expectations for results that will be disclosed next week. The outcome: Analysts have slashed their estimates for quarterly profit by almost half since mid-June — the biggest revision before an earnings report under CEO David Solomon. That translates into one of the steepest profit drops among peers, and a return on equity that could slip below 5%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an analysis by Realtor.com indicating that rent in the 50 largest U.S. cities is now cheaper than it was a year ago, with significant decreases in southern cities that were real estate hotspots during the pandemic. Median rent prices in these cities dropped by 0.5% in the last year.

Chris and Saied look at a report stating that former Celsius CEO Alex Mashinsky was arrested Thursday, as federal regulators announced his bankrupt crypto exchange Celsius would pay a $4.7 billion fine.

They also offer some thoughts on the consumer price index (CPI) which has increased 3% from a year ago, the lowest level since March 2021. On a monthly basis, the index, which measures a broad swath of prices for goods and services, rose 0.2%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why one month of data is not enough for a 'wait and see' approach to the economy.
Why core inflation is a better metric, and why food and energy data is too volatile.
Goldman Sachs new tactic of downplaying its earnings.
And so much more...

Resources:

"US Inflation Hits Two-Year Low, Giving Hope for End to Fed Hikes" (Bloomberg)

"Goldman breaks its own rule to flag results much worse than rivals" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"These are the US cities where the rent has fallen the most since last year" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Former Celsius CEO arrested, company agrees to pay $4.7 billion settlement" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (Chart of the Day via Instagram)

"Inflation Eased to 3% in June, Slowest Pace in More Than Two Years" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Inflation rose just 0.2% in June, less than expected as consumers get a break from price increases" (CNBC)

Interest Rates, Yield Curve, The Banks, Outies & Conspiracies

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

There is good news on inflation in store for Americans. The Labor Department is expected to report that overall inflation fell to about 3% in June, the lowest in two years. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer price inflation is expected to drop to around 5%, an 18-month low, from 5.3%. Economists think core inflation could ebb further in coming months, to between 3.5% and 4%, depending on the price index. The bad news: Getting inflation down further from there, to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, will prove difficult if the economy keeps chugging along. That could force the Fed to keep monetary policy tight until the labor market weakens.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a Labor Department report indicating that nonfarm payrolls increased 209,000 in June and the unemployment rate was 3.6%. That compared with the Dow Jones consensus estimates for growth of 240,000 and a jobless level of 3.6%.

Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, following the winning bid for First Republic, a lender to rich coastal families that had $229 billion in assets, who claimed that "This part of the crisis is over."

They also offer some thoughts on Fitch analyst Chris Wolfe's assertion that half the country’s banks will likely be swallowed by competitors in the next decade.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the printing of trillions of dollars by the Fed in 2020-2022 led to a spike in inflation.
Why over 40 million Americans will have to restart their student loan payments in the coming months.
Why the inverted yield curve is such an important topic.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Treasury yields fall as investors look to key economic data" (CNBC)

"America’s Biggest Banks Are Going to Need More Capital" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Everyone Wants Interest on Their Deposits. That’s Bad for Main Street Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Last Mile of the Inflation Fight Will Be the Hardest" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Payrolls rose by 209,000 in June, less than expected, as jobs growth wobbles" (CNBC)

"Job openings fall by half a million" (CNBC)

"The American banking landscape is on the cusp of a seismic shift. Expect more pain to come." (CNBC)

BS Jobs Report, Bankruptcies, and Haroon Ends The Show

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The Commerce Department is reporting that the US economy expanded at a much faster pace in the first three months of the year than previously estimated. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of America’s gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the economy, so it’s nearly impossible to enter a recession when spending is growing. Over the pandemic, historic levels of stimulus cash boosted household income significantly. Spending, meanwhile, was severely curtailed as the economy shut down. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. That’s about $2 trillion more than they would have saved under normal circumstances.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a warning from the Federal Trade Commission, indicating that scammers are likely to target student loan borrowers after the Supreme Court struck down the Biden administration’s debt forgiveness plan, and as loan repayments are poised to restart in the fall.

Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that private sector jobs surged by 497,000 for the month, well ahead of the downwardly revised 267,000 gain in May and much better than the 220,000 Dow Jones consensus estimate. The increase resulted in the biggest monthly rise since July 2022.

They also offer some thoughts on comments from Epiq Bankruptcy, a provider of US bankruptcy filing data, which claims that Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings jumped 68% in the first half of 2023 from a year earlier.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why Forbes thinks inflation is keeping the housing market afloat for now.
Why the credit tightening cycle has not yet begun.
Why office mortgage delinquencies have suffered the biggest six-month spike in 20 years.
And so much more...

Resources:

(Chart of the Day via Instagram)

"The Fed can’t decide how much money US households have left" (CNN)

"Mortgage rates hit the highest point of the year" (Yahoo! Finance)

"America's economy rapidly shifts south" (Axios)

"Bankruptcy filings surge in first half of 2023 in US, Epiq says" (Reuters)

"CRE Nightmare For CMBS Holders: Office Mortgage Delinquency Rate Suffers Biggest 6-Month Spike Ever" (Zerohedge)

"Private sector companies added 497,000 jobs in June, more than double expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Payrolls report Friday likely to show a jobs market that is still hot" (CNBC)

"Fed sees more rate hikes ahead, but at a slower pace, meeting minutes show" (CNBC)

"FTC warns about student loan scams following Supreme Court decision" (CNBC)

"Corporate America Faces a Bankruptcy Boom" (New York Times)

"Inflation Keeps The Housing Market Afloat — For Now" (Forbes)

"Some Fed Officials Supported Raising Rates in June" (The Wall Street Journal)

The Special 4th of July Episode

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Millions of Americans will have to prepare to repay the entire balance of their student debt now that the Supreme Court has overturned President Biden’s loan-forgiveness plan. After a three-year pause in payments and months of uncertainty and legal challenges, the program won’t be allowed to move forward. The Biden administration’s forgiveness plan would have wiped out up to $20,000 in federal student-loan debt for qualified borrowers. The court ruled in a 6-3 decision Friday that the Education Department doesn’t have the authority to implement a program that would change student loans this way.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments by Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel, who says he is not ruling out an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, despite market expectations.

Chris and Saied look at a Commerce Department report, indicating that the core personal consumption expenditures price index, a number closely watched by the Federal Reserve, increased 0.3% for the month. On the year, core PCE inflation increased 4.6%, though the headline number was up just 3.8%.

They also offer some thoughts on data from Redfin, showing that nationwide, the median U.S. home sale price fell 4.1% ($17,603) year over year in April to $408,031. That’s the biggest drop on record in dollar terms and the largest decline since January 2012 in percentage terms. April marked the third consecutive month of year-over-year declines following roughly a decade of increases.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The concept of emergency regulatory authority for the President.
Why US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise.
Why the only thing that will bring house prices down is more supply.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Supreme Court Throws Out Biden’s Student-Loan Relief Plan" (Bloomberg)

"US corporate bankruptcies are on the rise" (QZ)

"This economist says he can’t rule out a Fed interest-rate cut by year-end. Here’s why." (MarketWatch)

(Reventure Consulting via Instagram)

"Homes in Austin and Boise are Selling for $80,000 Less Than a Year Ago" (Redfin)

"Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States" (St. Louis Federal Reserve)

"Key Fed inflation measure shows prices rose just 0.3% in May" (CNBC)

"What the Supreme Court’s Rejection of Student-Loan Forgiveness Means for You" (The Wall Street Journal)

"People Hire Phone Bots to Torture Telemarketers" (The Wall Street Journal)

GDP Revised, Trillians of M&A & Don't Be a Richard

Tue, 04 Jul 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The U.S. economy showed much stronger-than-expected growth in the first quarter than previously thought, according to a big upward revision Thursday from the Commerce Department. GDP increased at a 2% annualized pace for the January-through-March period, up from the previous estimate of 1.3% and ahead of the 1.4% Dow Jones consensus forecast. This was the third and final estimate for Q1 GDP. The growth rate was 2.6% in the fourth quarter.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss data from Realor.com, indicating that the number of homes for sale this month was actually 7% higher than June of last year. However, in just the last week, that comparison went negative, with the number of homes for sale falling below year-ago levels for the first time in 59 weeks.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor Department, shown that initial jobless claims decreased by 26,000 to 239,000 in the week ended June 24, lower than all the estimates given in a recent survey of economists.

They also offer some thoughts on cryptocurrency's lack of government regulation and the opportunities it offers to traders wishing to bypass government red tape. However its lack of formal oversight also makes it ripe for abuse.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why luxury watch prices are near their lowest level in two years.
Why positive GDP growth means the economy is in expansion mode.
Why mortgage rates are about to go higher.
And so much more...

Resources:

"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported, in major GDP revision" (CNBC via Instagram)

"World's dealmakers are down $1 trillion in one of worst years for M&A and IPOs in decades" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Dealmakers Adrift as $1 Trillion Vanishes in First Half" (Bloomberg)

"Prices for luxury Swiss watches are near the lowest in almost two years on the secondary market" (Businessweek via Instagram)

"House hunting is already tough. Guess what? It’s about to get harder" (CNBC)

"First-quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision" (CNBC)

"He lost $340,000 to a crypto scam. Such cases are on the rise" (NPR)

https://www.npr.org/2023/06/25/1180256165/crypto-scam-senior-victims-spirebit

"US Jobless Claims Drop by Most Since 2021 in Holiday Week" (Bloomberg)

"Airbnb Could Be in Trouble — Here’s What You Need to Know" (Architectural Digest)

San Francisco Needs Batman, Return To Office & Home Sales

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

In New York and London, owners of office towers are walking away from their debt rather than pouring good money after bad. The landlords of downtown San Francisco’s largest mall have abandoned it. A new Hong Kong skyscraper is only a quarter leased. The rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a prediction from Chapman University economists, calling for a mild national recession in the second half of the year, driving down the coastal community's year-end local median sales price to $885,000 — an 11 percent drop from $993,000 in June and 19 percent off the $1.1 million high of spring 2022.

Chris and Saied look at announcements from several big companies, including Apple, JPMorgan Chase, and Amazon, who are attempting new pushes to “return to office” after previous attempts foundered. However, the pandemic has showed that many jobs can be done remotely, while a tight labor market and successful pandemic policy has given employees the confidence to push for better working conditions.

They also offer some thoughts on data from Moody’s Investors Service, which indicates that corporate defaults rose last month, with 41 in the U.S. so far this year. That’s more than double the same period last year.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why office real estate values are heading for a sharp crash and likely won't recover by 2040.
Why average US office vacancies currently sit around 50%.
The Case-Shiller index shows the first year-over-year decline in 11 years.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Cinemark closing theater complex at Westfield" (NBC via Instagram)

"OC home prices expected to fall by 11% as recession looms" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

"Silicon Valley vacancy jumps to 17% as tech firms shed floors" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

"Return to office? How COVID-19 and remote work reshaped the economy" (Princeton University Press)

"Corporate bankruptcies and defaults are surging – here’s why" (CNBC)

"The World’s Empty Office Buildings Have Become a Debt Time Bomb" (Bloomberg)

"U.S. new home sales jump in May; median house price falls" (Reuters)

"U.S. Home Prices Posted First Annual Decline Since 2012 in April" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Airbnb CEO says this is ‘loneliest time in human history’ and we need to ‘rebuild physical community’" (Fortune)

"The office real estate crash will be so sharp and deep that Capital Economics thinks office values are unlikely to recover by 2040" (Fortune)

"The Debt Crisis Looming in Commercial Real Estate" (Bloomberg)

Titanic Tragedy, Jerome Powell is Grilled & The Data Is Talking

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has affirmed that more interest rate increases are likely ahead until additional progress is made on bringing down inflation. Speaking a week after FOMC officials decided for the first time in more than a year not to push rates higher, the central bank leader indicated that the move likely was just a brief respite rather than an indication that the Fed is done hiking.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a forecast by London-based research firm Capital Economics, indicating that US office buildings are unlikely to regain their peak pre-pandemic values until at least 2040 as demand for desk space weakens.

Chris and Saied look at a Labor Department report, stating that initial jobless claims held at 264,000 in the week ended June 17 after a slight upward revision to the previous week’s figures. This was above the median forecast of a survey of economists, who estimated 259,000 new claims.

They also offer some thoughts on data from S3 Partners LLC, showing that total US short interest, or the amount traders have spent betting against US equities, exceeded $1 trillion this month as the S&P 500 Index extended its advance. The tally reached the highest since April 2022 before retreating slightly with stocks down for a third straight day.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the FOMC has never explained the reasoning behind the four separate 75-point rate increases.
Why housing makes up the largest component of the COnsumer Price Index (CPI) report.
The definition of a bull market.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Senator Elizabeth Warren pressures Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the SVB and FirstRepublic bank failures" (Bloomberg via Instagram)

"Higher Interest Rates Hit Home Prices Again" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Powell expects more Fed rate hikes ahead as inflation fight ‘has a long way to go’" (CNBC)

"Fed Chair Powell says smaller banks likely will be exempt from higher capital requirements" (CNBC)

"US Office Owners Get Dire Warning: Rebound Unlikely Before 2040" (Bloomberg)

"US Jobless Claims Hold at Highest Level Since October 2021" (Bloomberg)

"Short Bets on US Stocks Hit $1 Trillion, Most Since April 2022" (Bloomberg)

"Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Improve in May Amid Multi-Family Gains" (MSN)

Dr. Doom's Ridiculous Glasses, MJ v. Prince and Why Economists are Late

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

US Federal Reserve officials struck a hawkish tone in their first comments since the central bank held the policy interest rate steady at its meeting this week but signaled that rate hikes will likely resume. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that changes in US credit conditions since the failure of Silicon Valley Bank in early March were 'in line' with financial tightening that was already underway due to Federal Reserve interest rate increases - comments that downplayed the idea a worse-than-anticipated contraction in credit might make further Fed rate increases less necessary.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report by John Burns Real Estate Consulting, indicating that the monthly premium on home ownership is up to $1,030 per month — up 17 percent from this month last year, when the difference favored renters by $884 per month.

Chris and Saied look at the staggering $1.3 billion every day the government pays in interest on its debt. This means that a substantial portion of taxpayer money is being allocated solely to cover the interest costs of the national debt.

They also offer some thoughts on Economist Nouriel Roubini's doubling down on dire warnings about the US, saying the nation is headed for a recession as a combo of higher interest rates, sticky inflation, and a credit squeeze barrel the economy.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Nouriel Roubini's assertion that recession is now 'certain.'
Why economists are saying say it's a near-certainty that housing inflation will fall.
Why the hiring boom is hiding the fact that employees are working fewer hours.
And so much more...

Resources:

"...there will 'certainly' be a recession: Nouriel Roubini" (Yahoo! Finance via YouTube)

"Fed policymakers deliver hawkish vibe after pause decision" (Reuters)

"Why economists say it’s a near certainty that housing inflation will soon fall" (CNBC)

"The government is paying $1.3 billion in interest on its debt every day" (Wealth via Instagram)

"Tech-Stock Boom Pits AI Against the Fed" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Lots of Hiring, but Not So Much Working" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Biden Touts Job Growth in First Re-Election Campaign Rally" (The Wall Street Journal)

"A recession is ‘at our doorstep,’ but investors are falling for a goldilocks scenario, Wells Fargo says. It ‘isn’t going to end all that well’" (Yahoo! Finance)

"U.S. Apartment Values 'Will Plunge A Further 20%,' Economists Say, But Wall Street Still Sees Major Upside In These REITs — Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful?" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Buying costs $1000 more per month than renting" (TheRealDeal via Instagram)

Jerome Powell is Skipping, Inflation and CEO to DJ

Tue, 20 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The stock market is growing more optimistic about US regional banks, but the lenders still face serious pressure. A credit "contraction is invariably coming," Soros Fund Management Chief Executive Officer Dawn Fitzpatrick has said, adding that additional banks will fail because "there are more problems under the surface." One further source of trouble for the industry will be commercial real estate, an area that in recent years smaller and regional banks have become a bigger force in.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report stating that the Federal Reserve will pause its historic rate-hiking campaign as it waits for the effects to trickle further through the economy, while also signaling that additional rate hikes are likely this year.

Chris and Saied look at data from the Labor Department indicating that the inflation rate cooled in May to its lowest annual rate in more than two years, likely taking pressure off the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

They also offer some thoughts on the Consumer Price Index showing that inflation has been cut by more than half from last year’s peak. On an annual basis, prices rose by 4% compared to a year ago. That’s a significant decline from April, when annual inflation was 4.9%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why a terminal rate of 5.6% will likely be necessary.
Why consumer spending has been the number one thing propping up the economy up until now.
Why community banks are in serious trouble at the moment.
And so much more...

Resources:

"The Fed holds rates steady, pausing its rate-hiking campaign" (CNN)

"Fed Chair Powell says more rate hikes coming this year" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Instant Reaction: Fed Decision June 14, 2023" (NARresearch via Instagram)

"Westfield leaving downtown San Francisco amid declining sales" (NBC via Instagram)

"Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon says the U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, the lowest in 2 years" (CNBC)

"Here’s the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart" (CNBC)

"CPI Report Shows Inflation Has Been Cut in Half From Last Year’s Peak" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Regional Banks Face Years of Trouble" (The Wall Street Journal)

"The Richest Person In Every State" (Forbes)

"Fed Holds Rates Steady but Expects More Increases" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Fed, SEC Probing Goldman Sachs’s Role in SVB’s Final Days" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Goldman Sachs Is at War With Itself" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Renters Are About to Get the Upper Hand" (The Wall Street Journal)

"There’s More Trouble Coming for Regional Banks" (Bloomberg)

David Solomon, How To Use Credit Cards & Bonds For Dummies

Fri, 16 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain its benchmark lending rate at the 5%-5.25% range, marking the first skip after 10 consecutive increases going back to March of last year. While officials’ efforts have helped to reduce price pressures in the US economy, inflation remains well above their goal. Investors’ focus will be on the Fed’s quarterly dot plot in its Summary of Economic Projections, which is expected to show the policy benchmark rate at 5.1% at the end of 2023.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who claims to be surprised at the way the US economy has weathered higher interest rates, elevated inflation, and banking turmoil over the past year.

Chris and Saied look at recent Fed data, indicating that Americans have a record amount of credit card debt right now — close to $990 billion.

They also offer some thoughts on a revised home prices forecast from Goldman Sachs strategists, who now predict a smaller decline this year — 2.2% decline in 2023, down from 6.1%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The little signs that people are noticing that signal a recession.
Why people are reluctant to change their living standards.
Why consumers will start cutting back on discretionary spending.
And so much more...

Resources:

"The U.S. economy has been incredibly resilient,” Goldman Sachs CEO" (CNBC)

"Americans have almost $990 billion in credit card debt" (Marketplace)

"The hidden risk on bank balance sheets" (Axios)

"'I told you so': Dave Ramsey made the correct call on US real estate 18 months ago — but is he still right about housing in 2023? Here's what the financial guru thinks now" (Moneywise)

https://moneywise.com/real-estate/dave-ramseys-2023-real-estate-predictions

"Wall Street is divided on the outlook for US house prices. Here's what 6 experts have recently said." (Markets Insider)

"Fed Is Set to Pause and Assess the Effect of Rate Hikes" (Bloomberg)

The Truth About Home Prices, Brian's Bad Advisor & Adam Scores

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

According to Michael Gapen, Bank of America's chief economist, the US economy will likely face a mild recession later this year, but the risk of a severe economic downturn appears low as of now. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession. With risks receding, stress in the banking sector stabilizing, and macroeconomic trends looking good, Gapen said the Fed faces a tough decision regarding interest rates and investors can't completely rule out the possibility of another hike.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Labor Department, indicating that initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous period.

Chris and Saied look at data from Realtor.com with the National Association of Realtors, showing that the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered in the high-6% range in May. At that level, buyers with an annual income of $100,000, slightly above the national median, could afford a house with a maximum price of about $341,000, however just 39% of the homes for sale were listed at or below that price point in May.

They also offer some thoughts on a new real estate transfer tax in Los Angeles, that was supposed to give the city an average of $56 million a month in its first year. However, in its first month, the Measure ULA tax took in $3.6 million. For transactions closing in April, the city received the revenue from five deals that were subject to the new tax.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why growth is often used as a metaphor of prosperity.
Why a credit crunch has already begun in the commercial office real estate.
Why Larry Summers thinks the Fed has made a huge mistake, and why that's wrong.
And so much more...

Resources:

"The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says" (Business Insider)

"Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021" (CNBC)

"U.S. consumer-credit growth accelerates in April to fastest pace in five months" (MarketWatch)

"The shortage of houses is hitting some people and areas harder than others" (CNBC)

"The “mansion tax” was supposed to bring in $56M monthly. It took in $3.6M" (TheRealDeal)

"Larry Summers says that the Fed should consider doubling down on interest rates in July if it pauses in June because the risk of ‘overheating the economy’" (Fortune)

"Are home prices falling? See what it’s like in your area." (Washington Post)

It's Raining Jobs, Ramsey and CZ Have Problems and Let's be Sexy

Fri, 09 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The Securities and Exchange Commission filed 13 charges against Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, alleging both commingled billions of dollars worth of user funds and sent them to a European company controlled by Zhao. The U.S. regulator alleged on Monday that Zhao and his exchange worked to subvert ‘their own controls’ to allow high-net-worth U.S. investors and customers to continue trading on Binance's unregulated international exchange.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a story stating that Christian radio host Dave Ramsey is facing a $150 million lawsuit from 17 listeners who claim he played a role in defrauding them by promoting a timeshare exit company.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labor department indicating that payrolls in the public and private sector increased by 339,000 for the month, better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

They also offer some thoughts on the latest Markets Live Pulse survey, which found that roughly one in two people who work in finance would change jobs — or already have — if their managers required them to spend more time in the office.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why air travel is the highest-ranking inflation item at 26%.
Why realtors are bowing out of the real estate industry.
The concept of timeshares and their benefits.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Christian radio host Dave Ramsey faces $150 million lawsuit from listeners who say they were defrauded by a timeshare exit company he promoted" (Yahoo! Finance)

"SEC sues Binance and CEO Changpeng Zhao for U.S. securities violations" (CNBC)

"Payrolls rose 339,000 in May, much better than expected in resilient labor market" (CNBC)

"Don’t Ask Us to Come to the Office More — Or We Will Quit, Investors Say" (Bloomberg)

"A $1.5 Trillion Backstop for Homebuyers Props Up Banks Instead" (Bloomberg)

"Why the U.S. Remains Far From Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

A Record Plunge, Goldman goes from Bad to Worse and Landlord Problems

Tue, 06 Jun 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Goldman Sachs is preparing for its third round of layoffs since September as Wall Street firms adjust to a slump in deals activity. The company is expected to trim fewer than 250 jobs in the coming weeks. Goldman Sachs, led by CEO David Solomon, was among the first major Wall Street firms to trim jobs in September, cutting a few hundred positions. It then slashed more jobs in January, releasing about 3,200 employees. Morgan Stanley announced about 3,000 job cuts this month, and JPMorgan Chase cut about 500 jobs. However, Goldman is more tied to the ups and downs of Wall Street than its rivals. Its combined 16% drop in first-quarter trading and advisory revenue contributed to a disappointing start to the year.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from Refinitiv's FedWatch, indicating that U.S. rate futures on Wednesday priced in a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve at next month's monetary policy meeting, a massive turnaround from indications of a 25 basis-point increase earlier in the session.

Chris and Saied look at a report from payroll processing firm ADP, showing that the U.S. labor market posted another month of surprising strength in May as companies added jobs at a pace well above expectations.

They also offer some thoughts on the tumble the stock market took on Wednesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%, or 150 points, by 3:15 p.m. ET, while the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq slid 0.5% apiece.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The concept of market capitalization.
Why inversion typically precedes a recessionary economy.
Why the data is showing that employment is headed in the wrong direction.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow falls 130 points after FDIC reveals record plunge in bank deposits" (Forbes via Instagram)

"US rate futures expect Fed pause in June in sharp turnaround from earlier" (Reuters)

"Goldman Sachs is cutting jobs again amid Wall Street deals slump" (CNBC)

"Job openings show surprise increase in April" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Private payrolls rose by 278,000 in May, well ahead of expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Pending home sales unchanged in April, down 20% year-over-year" (CNBC)

"Market Capitalization: What It Is and Why It Matters" (NerdWallet)

"State Farm Halts Home-Insurance Sales in California" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Apple Customers Say It’s Hard to Get Money Out of Goldman Sachs Savings Accounts" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Downtown LA's office distress shows the pain coming for cities" (Bloomberg)

Recession is Here, Don't Tell The Fed & Don't 10X EVER

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 05:00:00 -0700

U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in April, boosting the economy's growth prospects for the second quarter, and inflation picked up, which could prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again next month. The growth picture was further brightened by other data from the Commerce Department on Friday showing a surprise rebound last month in orders of manufactured non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending plans.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the debate among Fed officials, centered on concerns over inflation not cooling fast enough and the labor market’s persistent strength.

Chris and Saied look at the increase in real GDP, which reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment.

They also offer some thoughts on a jump in consumer spending of 0.8% last month after gaining 0.1% in March. Economists had forecast consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, would rise 0.4%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The difference between Gross DOmestic Income (GDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

Why the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared a recession.

Why the additional stress placed on all corporations and profitability will be very visible in July.

And so much more...

"Gross Domestic Income GDI Suggests US Is In Recession Right Now" (Zero Hedge)

"Strong US consumer spending, inflation readings put Fed in tough spot" (Reuters)

"Fed officials debated need for rate hike at last meeting, minutes show" (CNN)

"A Housing Bust Comes for Thousands of Small-Time Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

Savings You Need, The Fed is Confused and Private Equity Booming

Tue, 30 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Deposit runs have led to the collapse of three U.S. banks this year, but another concern is building on the horizon. According to JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, commercial real estate is the area most likely to cause problems for lenders. U.S. banks have experienced historically low loan defaults over the last few years due to low interest rates and the flood of stimulus money unleashed during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the Federal Reserve has hiked rates to fight inflation, which has changed the landscape. Commercial buildings in some markets, including tech-centric San Francisco, may take a hit as remote workers are reluctant to return to offices.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an academic paper from economist Olivier Blanchard and former Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, who guided the central bank and the U.S. economy through the Great Recession, in which they argue that central bankers still have work to do to bring down inflation.

Chris and Saied look at news that San Francisco has the largest sublease market of any U.S. metropolitan area, with 7.2% of its overall office inventory available for sublease, having doubled that figure since late 2019.

They also offer some thoughts on the rise of asset managers, private equity funds and insurers, as the regional banking crisis supercharges the expansion of these non-bank lenders into areas such as providing consumer car loans and mortgages, or financing the construction of buildings.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the debt ceiling 'crisis' is a non-event.
Private equity and how it differs from real estate syndicators.
Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPACs): a new way to take companies public.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Here's how much emergency savings you need amid economic uncertainty, according to financial advisors" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation" (CNBC)

"Jamie Dimon warns souring commercial real estate loans could threaten some banks" (CNBC)

"Analysis: Private equity steps up lending as U.S. banks pull back" (Reuters)

"Former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke says there’s more work ahead to control inflation" (CNBC)

"What's the right emergency fund amount?" (Vanguard)

"These Companies Are Trying To Shed Massive Amounts of San Francisco Office Space" (SF Standard)

"The Majority of U.S. Businesses Have Fewer Than Five Employees" (Census.gov)

"PacWest to Sell $2.6 Billion Real Estate Loans at Discount" (Bloomberg)

"Fed Rate Increases Hit Small Businesses the Hardest" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Regional Banks Rallied Last Week. Traders Continued to Short the Sector" (Bloomberg)

"Fed Official Is Open to Forgoing June Rate Hike" (The Wall Street Journal)

Dissension Amongst the Fed Ranks and Chris Rants

Fri, 26 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester has said that she does not think the U.S. central bank is at a point yet where it can hold interest rates steady for a period of time, given how stubborn inflation is. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled the central bank may pause further rate hikes as it assesses the impact of its past tightening, as well as the effect of recent bank sector stress on lending and credit.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that JPMorgan sees treasuries as the best hedge against a slowdown, and sees the possibility of 10-year rates falling below 2.5% in the event of a deep recession. The 10-year Treasury rate was trading around 3.53% on Wednesday, after rising as high as 4.09% earlier in the year.

Chris and Saied look at comments from Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, who said that, if he were voting on monetary policy today, he would vote to hold interest rates steady, but added there is still a lot of data to come before the Fed's meeting in June.

They also offer some thoughts on Elon Musk's assertions that he doesn’t care if his inflammatory tweets scare away potential Tesla buyers or Twitter advertisers.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why most people believe that a recession is inevitable at this point.
Why, despite the fanfare in the media, we're not yet in a credit tightening cycle.
The importance of looking at the actual data, not the intentions.
Why Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic says he would not cut rates unless inflation fell farther than to mid to high 3%.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Default Fears Rattle Main Street Investors" (The Wall Street Journal)

"JPMorgan Asset Says Markets Are Right to Bet on US Rate Cuts" (Bloomberg)

"Home Prices Posted Largest Annual Drop in More Than 11 Years in April" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Fed's Mester says not yet at point where it can 'hold' rates" (Reuters)

"Fed's Bostic: if vote on policy were today, would vote to hold steady" (Reuters)

"Elon Musk: ‘I’ll say what I want, and if the consequence of that is losing money, so be it’" (CNBC)

RIP Sam Zell, Home Depot Falls Off and Remodels are Mid

Tue, 23 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

According to a report from the Commerce Department, retail sales increased but fell short of expectations. The advanced sales report showed an increase of 0.4%, below the Dow Jones estimate for 0.8%. Excluding auto-related figures, sales increased 0.4%, which was in line with expectations. As the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, the headline increase equaled the 0.4% monthly rise in the consumer price index. On an annual basis, sales were up just 1.6%, well below the 4.9% CPI pace.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that stock in Home Depot tumbled more than 5%, or $13 a share, in premarket trading, which was worth about 100 points on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Once trading opened, the stock recovered some of its gains, and was recently down about 1.5%, still big enough to shave about 30 points off the Dow.

Chris and Saied look at a Census Bureau survey, showing that more Americans struggle to meet expenses now than in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic, when millions lost their means of employment. About 38.5% of American adults — or 89.1 million people — faced difficulty in paying for usual home expenses between April 26 and May 8. That’s up from 34.4% a year ago and 26.7% during the same period in 2021.

They also offer some thoughts on the passing of Chicago real estate magnate Sam Zell, who earned a multibillion-dollar fortune and a reputation as “the grave dancer” for his ability to revive moribund properties.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why retail sales rose 0.4% in April, and why this is indicative of bad things to come.
The concept of a real estate trust.
A University of Michigan report showing that consumer sentiment is at an all-time low.
Why Home Depot is warning of annual sales drop for the first time since 2009.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Home Depot just forecast weak consumer demand — here’s what that could mean for the rest of the economy" (CNBC)

"Almost 90 million American adults struggle to make ends meet, Census says" (Bloomberg Business)

"Retail sales rose 0.4% in April, less than expected as consumers struggle with inflation" (CNBC)

"Americans Curb Spending on Home Improvements" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Home Improvement Goes on Hiatus" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Experts Predict Home Improvement Spending to Decline by 2024" (M Report)

Consumer Debt Hits New High, Burry Believes in Bank and JP Got Bars

Fri, 19 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Total consumer debt hit a fresh new high in the first quarter of 2023, pushing past $17 trillion even amid a sharp pullback in home borrowing. According to a report from the New York Federal Reserve, the total for borrowing across all categories hit $17.05 trillion, an increase of nearly $150 billion, or 0.9% during the January-to-March period. That took total indebtedness up about $2.9 trillion from the pre-Covid period ending in 2019.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that famed short-seller Michael Burry and his hedge fund, Scion Asset Management, snapped up 150,000 shares of First Republic prior to its purchase by JP Morgan, worth about $2 million at the end of the first quarter.

Chris and Saied look at A Gallup poll indicating that 36% of US adults say they have a “great deal” or a “fair amount” of confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman would do or recommend the right thing for the economy, a precipitous drop which is now at or below his predecessors’ as the central bank wages its war against inflation.⁣

They also offer some thoughts on recently-released Federal Reserve data, showing that deposits at U.S. banks climbed to $17.16 trillion in the week ended May 3, up about $67 billion, ticking up from the lowest level in nearly two years while bank lending was little changed at a record level.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why inflaton in Argentina has sped up to 109% as currency weakens before the election.
The three steps to a Federal Reserve pivot.
Why Warren Buffett and Michael Burry are doubling down in the banking sector.
Why the FOMC needs to see inflation going down on a fast enough trend.
And so much more...

Resources:

"With $1B in back rent due, LA landlords struggle to survive" (The RealDeal via Instagram)

"Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Michael Burry loaded up on bank stocks during the banking crisis" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Paul Tudor Jones says the Fed is done raising rates, stocks to finish the year higher" (CNBC via Instagram)

"Confidence in Jerome Powell has plunged to a record low" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"What happens when the prophecy of the blockchain fails?" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"U.S. bank deposits rise in early May, lending little changed at record high" (Reuters)

"US real estate investors are losing money on roughly 1 in 7 homes they sell — among the worst since 2016. And they're most likely to take a hit in these 5 cities" (Moneywise)

"A problem for the housing market: People won’t quit their cheap mortgages" (The Washington Post)

"US Households Show Signs of Stress as New Delinquencies Rise" (Bloomberg)

"Argentina to Hike Rates in Bid to Stem Inflation Crisis" (Bloomberg)

Inflation Isn't What You Think, Tipping is Out of Control and Pot Calling the Kettle

Tue, 16 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits have jumped to a 1-1/2-year high, pointing to cracks in the labor market as demand slows, potentially giving the Federal Reserve room to halt further interest rate increases next month. With demand cooling, inflation pressures are subsiding. Data from the Labor Department indicates that producer prices rebounded modestly in April, leading to the smallest annual increase in wholesale inflation in more than two years.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a Labor Department report showing that the consumer price index (CPI), which measures the cost of a broad swath of goods and services, increased 0.4% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate.

Chris and Saied look at comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon that markets will be gripped by panic as the U.S. approaches a possible default on its sovereign debt, calling the default "potentially catastrophic" for the country.

They also offer some thoughts on a statement by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams, who cautioned that interest rate increases will take a while to work their way through the economy before inflation returns to an acceptable level.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why services inflation is really consumer discretionary spending more than anything else.
Why housing prices are excluded from the Labor Department’s CPI report.
The odds of a Fed rate cut this year.
Why the Fed's 'stress tests' for banks failed.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Jamie Dimon warns panic will overtake markets as US approaches debt default" (CNBC via Instagram)

"The family behind First Citizen's Bank is $1 billion richwer since SVB" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"AirBnB stock craters - founders lose $4 billion in one day" (Forbes via Instagram)

"Inflation rate eases to 4.9% in April, less than expectations" (CNBC)

"Wholesale prices rose just 0.2% in April, less than estimate as inflation pressures ease" (CNBC)

"Fed’s John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn’t come down" (CNBC)

"Worries linger about financial stability following bank rescue, Fed report shows" (CNBC)

"US weekly jobless claims hit 1-1/2-year high; inflation subsiding" (Reuters)

"Brits are being offered no-deposit 100% mortgage loans for the first time since 2008" (CNBC)

"We May Be Getting Used to High Inflation, and That’s Bad News" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Icahn, Under Federal Investigation, Blasts Short Seller" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Inflation Eased in April but Remains Stubbornly High" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Can Inflation Fall Fast Enough for the Fed?" (The Wall Street Journal)

"How the Fed’s stress tests failed to stop a banking crisis" (Fortune)

"Monthly Mortgage Payments Could Surge 22% If US Defaults" (Bloomberg)

The Recession is Looming, Jobs Report and Finance Slum Dog Millionaire

Fri, 12 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The Pandemic Housing Boom saw a flood of institutional homebuying. Low interest rates, easy access to capital, soaring rents, and skyrocketing home values were just too good a deal for Wall Street types like Blackstone and iBuyer players like Opendoor Technologies to pass on. However, it seems that institutional homebuyers are pulling back. According to an analysis conducted by John Burns Research and Consulting, institutional investors — those owning over 1,000 homes — bought 90% fewer homes in January and February than they did in the first two months of 2022. Invitation Homes, the largest owner of U.S. single-family rental homes recently became a net seller. In the first quarter of 2023, Invitation Homes bought 194 homes while it sold off 297.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the reasons that banks are going to choose to be strategic in the deployment of capital, partially because they want to keep as much of their balance sheets as possible, in case of a run on deposits, and partially because any loan they make today is going to be underwater if the Federal Reserve continues to increase rates.

Chris and Saied look at news that shares of San Francisco-based PacWest Bancorp plunged after investors learned the regional bank was considering a sale. Despite thet fact that the bank has said it had not experienced a high number of customer withdrawals, the news still stoked fears of a potential surge in withdrawals among regional banks.

They also offer some thoughts on the results of a survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB), a lobbying organization that represents small business owners nationwide, which shows that small business earnings rose to the highest levels in at least 45 years last month.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the market is not concerned with interest rate increases.
Why the US dollar needs to be the world's currency.
Why the debt ceiling is going to have to be raised well before June 1.
Why, in 2011, the debt ceiling crisis led to an S&P downgrade of US sovereign debt.
And so much more...

Resources:

Wall Street is running away from the housing market. But why?

Powell’s Bet Against Recession Looks Good — Minus the Credit Crunch and a DC Standoff

Fed report shows banks worried about conditions ahead, with focus on slowing economy and deposit outflows

Outlook for household spending slumped in April, New York Fed survey shows

Corporate Stock Buybacks Help Keep Market Afloat

What are the advantages of being the Nation that has the Reserve Currency

The Kardashev Scale - Type I, II, III, IV & V Civilization

Job growth totals 253,000 in April, beating expectations even as the U.S. economy slows

The Fed Kills Banks, the Aftermath and the Galactic Menagerie

Tue, 09 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Employment openings pulled back further in March, hitting a nearly two-year low in a sign that the ultra-tight U.S. job market is loosening and possibly putting less pressure on inflation, according to a report by the Labor Department. The department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed that job vacancies totaled 9.59 million for the month, down from 9.97 million in February and below the FactSet estimate for 9.64 million. At the same time, layoffs and discharges jumped by 248,000 to just over 1.8 million, taking the rate as a share of the workforce up to 1.2% from 1%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from payroll processing firm ADP that states that private payrolls rose by 296,000 for April, above the downwardly revised 142,000 the previous month and well ahead of the estimate for 133,000.

Chris and Saied look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent press conference, in which he said that, "The run on Silicon Valley Bank was out of keeping with the speed of runs through history. And that now needs to be reflected in some way in regulation and in supervision.”

They also offer some thoughts on the recent increase in the Fed's target range for its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, while leaving its options open on future rate hikes.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the entire regional bank sector is taking a significant pounding.
Why the market doesn't believe a lot of what Fed Chair Jerome Powell is saying.
The reason why so many knowledgeable people on the news and in social media seem to have no idea how banking works.
The role of digital banking, providing depositors with quick access to their funds that they can move immediately.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow tumbles more than 300 points as banking sector worries reignite before Fed rate decision" (CNBC)

"Job openings fell more than expected in March to lowest level in nearly two years" (CNBC)

"Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike" (CNBC)

"Federal Reserve pushes interest rates above 5% for first time since 2007" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Exclusive: US officials assessing possible 'manipulation' on banking shares" (Reuters)

"Apple reportedly attracted $1 billion in deposits into its new high-yield savings account in just 4 days" (BusinessInsider)

"As JPMorgan Scoops Up First Republic, Are Banks Facing Their ‘Minsky Moment?'" (Payments.com)

"US job openings fall to a nearly 2-year low of 9.6 million. Fewer people are quitting too" (MarketWatch)

"For Banks Under Stress, There’s a Federal Backstop That Provides Help Without Stigma" (Bloomberg)

"Regional Bank Stocks Close at Lowest Level Since 2020" (Wall Street Journal)

"What a Fed Debate 17 Years Ago Reveals About Its Rate Deliberations Now" (Wall Street Journal)

The Big First Republic Episode

Fri, 05 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Regulators have seized First Republic Bank and sold its assets to JPMorgan Chase & Co in a deal to resolve the largest U.S. bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis and draw a line under a lingering banking turmoil. First Republic was among regional U.S. lenders most battered by a crisis in confidence in the banking sector in March, when depositors fled en masse from smaller banks to giants like JPMorgan as they panicked over the collapse of two other mid-sized U.S. banks.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who said that the crisis that led to the downfall of three regional U.S. banks in recent weeks is largely over after the resolution of First Republic.

Chris and Saied look at a warning from billionaire investor Charlie Munger, vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, who sees trouble ahead for the U.S. financial system because American banks are "full of... bad loans" due to falling property prices in the country in a situation that seems very similar to what caused the banking crisis in 2008.

They also offer some thoughts on recently-released economic data showing that inflation rose again in March, despite a year’s worth of interest rate increases. This is data that the Federal Reserve watches very closely.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why you can’t compare the large global banks to regional community banks.
Why the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will share losses with JP Morgan on First Republic loans.
What other banks are doing to prepare for a possible rate hike.
Why banks are not doing loans right now.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Australia’s central bank hikes rates by 25 basis points; Asia-Pacific markets mixed" (CNBC)

"Jamie Dimon says ‘this part of the crisis is over’ after JPMorgan Chase buys First Republic" (CNBC)

"Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected" (CNBC)

"Charlie Munger says the U.S. commercial property market is in trouble: FT report" (CNBC)

"Big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America asked for final bids on First Republic" (CNBC)

"The U.S. could hit the debt ceiling by June 1, much sooner than expected, Yellen warns" (CNBC)

"Charlie Munger Sounds The Alarm on Issue That Could Bring Down the U.S. Economy" (TheStreet)

"Warren Buffett might help rescue the banks again - but he'll probably make less money this time around" (Markets Insider)

"Renting is still far less expensive in Dallas-Fort Worth than in other metros" (The Dallas Morning News)

"Regulators seize First Republic Bank, sell assets to JPMorgan" (Reuters)

"Ranked: The U.S. Banks With the Most Uninsured Deposits" (Visual Capitalist)

"A Tax Loophole Makes EV Leasing a No-Brainer in the US" (Bloomberg)

"First Republic Bank Is Seized, Sold to JPMorgan in Second-Largest U.S. Bank Failure" (The Wall Street Journal)

"The Building Boom Is Prolonging Market Pain" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Why First Republic Bank Collapsed" (The Wall Street Journal)

GDP Breakdown, Home Value Hype and FRC Wants a Handy

Tue, 02 May 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Growth in the U.S. slowed considerably during the first three months of the year as interest rate increases and inflation took hold of an economy largely expected to decelerate even further ahead. According to the Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) rose at a 1.1% annualized pace in the first quarter. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting growth of 2%.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report stating that U.S. home prices, as measured by the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose 0.15% between January and February. This month-over-month national home price uptick comes after national prices had declined every month between June 2022 and January 2023.

Chris and Saied look at news showing the continued decline of First Republic Bank's stock, an ongoing rout that has erased 60% of its value just this week on concerns about the bank's financial health in the wake of two other bank collapses.

They also offer some thoughts on the apparent end of the severe contraction in the US housing market over the past year, a bottoming-out which is raising hopes on Wall Street that America could avoid a recession altogether.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The definition of gross domestic product (GDP).
Why businesses have been drawing down inventory and cutting equipment purchases.
Why home values don’t just drop across the country at the same time.
Why historically, housing has been a critical driver of the broader business cycle.
And so much more...

Resources:

"GDP Report Shows Economic Growth Slowed in First Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Bankers’ pitch to save First Republic: Help us now, or pay more later when it fails" (CNBC)

"Housing market correction is running on fumes as Case-Shiller reports the first U.S. home price uptick since June—these 2 charts tell the story" (Fortune)

"The housing market's bottoming-out raises hopes that the US can avoid a recession" (Bloomberg Business)

"First Republic Bank Is a Problem With No Easy Solution" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Google Ad Revenue Drops for Second Straight Quarter" (The Wall Street Journal)

Credit Doesn't Matter, Sam Zell is Downgrading Work from Home and the Repo Man

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Many critics have blasted new rules from the Biden administration that will force good-credit homebuyers to subsidize the costs of buyers with poor credit. One former Obama housing official is calling out the "unprecedented" move, arguing this is "not the way" to bring in more home buyers. New rules from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) will allow consumers with lower credit ratings and less money for a down payment to qualify for better mortgage rates than they otherwise would have. In turn, the costs are expected to be passed on the those with good credit. The rules are set to go into effect May 1.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss comments from tech investor Chamath Palihapitiya, who said two years ago that bitcoin had replaced gold and predicted the digital currency would climb to $200,000, who is now saying that "Crypto is dead in America," blaming its demise largely on regulators, who have gotten much more aggressive in their pursuit of bad actors in the industry.

Chris and Saied look at reports that Bed Bath and Beyond has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection after it failed in several last-ditch efforts to raise enough money to keep the company alive. It had been warning of a potential bankruptcy since early January, when it issued a “going concern” notice that it may not have the cash to cover expenses after a dismal holiday season.

They also offer some thoughts on real estate magnate Sam Zell's assertion that "Remote work is a bunch of bullshit," speaking at a luncheon at NYU’s Schack Institute of Real Estate as part of its annual REIT Symposium.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

What is Moody's and why do its ratings matter?
Why working from home is here to stay, but it's not for everyone.
Why Google CEO’s compensation package includes $6 million for personal security.
Why Coinbase's CEO Brian Armstrong says his company is preparing for a years-long court battle with the commission.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Former Obama housing chief slams Biden’s ‘unprecedented’ mortgage plan: ‘Not the way to do it’" (Fox Business)

"Frank's Charlie Javice moved millions from JPMorgan to Signature months before the bank collapsed" (Bloomberg Business)

"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet lead earnings rush: What to know this week" (Yahoo! Finance)

"‘Crypto is dead in America,’ says longtime bitcoin bull Chamath Palihapitiya" (CNBC)

"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

"Google’s 80-acre San Jose mega-campus is on hold as company reckons with economic slowdown" (CNBC)

"BuzzFeed News Is Shutting Down, and Vice World News Could Be Next" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Bed Bath & Beyond Files for Bankruptcy" (The Wall Street)

"First Republic Lost $100 Billion in Deposits in Banking Panic" (The Wall Street Journal)

"The Labor Market Might Be Bending; It Isn’t Breaking" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Moody’s Downgrades 11 Regional Banks, Including Zions, U.S. Bank, Western Alliance" (The Wall Street Journal)

"The Repo Man Returns as More Americans Fall Behind on Car Payments" (Bloomberg)

"Remote work is ‘bull***t’ and the ‘office situation will change,’ says real estate billionaire Sam Zell: ‘People need to be together’" (Fortune)

“US existing-home prices fall nearly 1% in March, the biggest drop in a decade” (MarketWatch)

Beige Book, Look at Earnings and Saied is the Villain

Tue, 25 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

The US economy stalled in recent weeks, with hiring and inflation slowing and access to credit narrowing, the Federal Reserve said in its Beige Book survey of regional business contacts. "Overall economic activity was little changed in recent weeks," the Fed said in the report, published two weeks before each meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee. "Several districts noted that banks tightened lending standards amid increased uncertainty and concerns about liquidity. Overall price levels rose moderately during this reporting period, though the rate of price increases appeared to be slowing."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a recent survey from LendingTree Inc., indicating that US consumers are increasingly using installment loans to pay for everyday items like groceries, highlighting the financial pain wrought by the worst inflation outbreak in four decades.

Chris and Saied look at Meta’s latest round of job cuts, as employees with technical backgrounds like user experience, software engineering, graphics programming are being let go.

They also offer some thoughts on earnings season, demystifying some of the terminology and concepts that get tossed about so that you can better understand what earnings reports mean for you and the economy.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

How credit is being impacted by the stalling US economy.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book: What it is and why it matters.
The rise of 'buy now, pay later' services, and the negative impact they're having on consumers.
The continued rash of layoffs in the tech sector - and soon, the banking sector as well.
And so much more...

Resources:

"US Economy Stalls as Credit Narrows, Fed’s Beige Book Says" (Bloomberg)

"Americans Go Deeper Into Debt as They Use Buy Now, Pay Later Apps for Groceries" (Bloomberg)

"More US consumers are falling behind on payments" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Meta has started its latest round of layoffs, focusing on technical employees" (CNBC)

Janet Yellen is Sexy, Site Your Sources, Rent is Falling and Home Rap

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

According to data from Redfin, the median U.S. asking rent fell 0.4% year over year to $1,937 in March. That’s the first U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said that banks are likely to become more cautious and may tighten lending further in the wake of recent bank failures, possibly negating the need for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. In a recent interview, Yellen said that policy actions to stem the systemic threat caused by last month's failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank had caused deposit outflows to stabilize, "and things have been calm."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the launch of Apple's 'Apple Card' savings account, with a 4.15% annual percentage yield. It requires no minimum deposit or balance, Apple said, and users can set up an account from the Wallet app on their iPhones.

Chris and Saied look at a report from investment research firm Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI), indicating that investors have grown voracious for apartment-building acquisitions in 2021 and 2022, having purchased $355.5 billion and $299.2 billion worth of apartment buildings, unprecedented sums that far surpassed the previous $194 billion record of multifamily sales in 2019.

They also offer some thoughts on news that the National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index climbed to 45 in April, a 1-point gain, the highest since September. The index stood at 77 in April 2022.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the Fed believes that unemployment is an inflationary trend.
Why Chris believes inflation may be moderating.
The degree of liability on the line for banking executives in the wake of the current crisis.
Why difficulty getting loans and a lack of inventory has created a stalemate in the housing market.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Yellen says US banks may tighten lending and negate need for more rate hikes" (Reuters)

"Fed should let the economy equilibrate, says former Fed nominee Judy Shelton" (CNBC)

"Warren Buffett Doesn't Hold Back When Asked About Failed Bank Execs" (TheStreet)

"Credit-card balances have hit historic highs. Here’s why that’s a worrying sign." (Market Watch)

"NO ATMs, no fees, and a 103-year old vault: Inside America's Smallest Bank" (Businessweek via Instagram)

"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)

"Rental Market Tracker: U.S. Rents Post First Annual Decline in Three Years" (Redfin)

"Landlords pumped billions into apartment buildings during the pandemic. That bet could now go horribly wrong." (Yahoo! Finance)

"Apple launches its savings account with 4.15% interest rate" (CNBC)

"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)

"Bosses Pay Workers to Move Closer to Offices" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Homebuilder sentiment rises in April, as builders grab near-record share of the market" (CNBC)

"$134.1M! Wells Fargo CEO's retirement payout even bigger than thought" (USA Today)

It's Time to get Frank, Banks and Boing Boing

Tue, 18 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Released Federal Reserve documents seem to indicate that fallout from the U.S. banking crisis is likely to tilt the economy into recession later this year. Minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) included a presentation from staff members on potential repercussions from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and other tumult in the financial sector that began in early March.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss a report from the Labor Department indicating that US producer prices unexpectedly fell in March as the cost of gasoline declined, along with signs that underlying producer inflation was subsiding.

Chris and Saied look at analyst's estimates, suggesting that deposits at JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America will tumble $521 billion from a year earlier, the biggest drop in a decade.

They also offer some thoughts on criminal fraud charges brought by the Department of Justice against Charlie Javice, founder and former CEO of Frank, a startup college financial planning company for students, in which they allege that she "engaged in a brazen scheme" when she sold her company to JPMorgan Chase in 2021.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

The statistics that can be found behind the CPI report.
The two main problems with the shelter component of the CPI report.
Why the Fed expects a banking crisis to cause a recession this year.
The ins and outs of the Charlie Javice fraud case.
And so much more...

Resources:

"US consumer prices rise moderately; underlying inflation too hot" (Reuters)

"US labor market gradually losing steam; producer inflation cooling" (Reuters)

"U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fall in March" (Reuters)

"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show" (CNBC)

"Top US banks to reveal $521 billion deposit drop, the most in a decade” (Bloomberg Business)

"Deposit Crisis Sets Up a Tough First Quarter for All but the Biggest Banks" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Charlie Javice, the founder accused of fraud by JPMorgan, is arrested as DOJ files criminal charges" (Fortune)

"The Fed’s efforts to fight housing inflation by hiking interest rates has backfired, Cramer says" (CNBC)

"Inflation rises just 0.1% in March and 5% from a year ago as Fed rate hikes take hold" (CNBC)

"Bank Volatility to Cut U.S. Economic Growth, IMF Says" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show” (CNBC)

"Fed Keeps May Interest-Rate Increase on Table Despite Expected Recession" (The Wall Street Journal)

Dr. Doom's Boom, Strong Job Numbers and AI is Coming

Fri, 14 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

According to the Labor Department, payrolls grew by 236,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate for 238,000 and below the upwardly revised 326,000 in February. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 3.5%, against expectations that it would hold at 3.6%, with the decrease coming as labor force participation increased to its highest level since before the Covid pandemic.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss Nouriel Roubini's continued calls for disaster, stating that neither the US central bank nor the federal government will have the maneuvering room needed to sufficiently stimulate the economy.

Chris and Saied look at a survey by recruiter Robert Walters of 3,000 white collar workers who moved jobs during the pandemic, found that 71% wanted to return to their pre-pandemic employer.

They also offer some thoughts on a report from Walmart indicating that it expects about 65% of its stores to be serviced by automation by the end of its fiscal year 2026, just days after revealing plans to lay off more than 2,000 people at facilities that fulfill online orders.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why job growth in March is not ideal when the Fed is taken into account.
Why a strong jobs report hurts the services inflation, something that has not come down since the last CPI report.
Why the Saudis and OPEC are moving away from the US dollar.
Insight on community banks and their loan loss provisions.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Bosses are training employees to be influencers - after long discouraging social media posts about work" (Forbes via Instagram)

"Who is Nouriel Roubini, Wall Street's 'Dr. Doom' economist who has warned of catastrophe for 2 decades?" (Markets Insider)

"Morgan Stanley analysts are forecasting something ‘worse than in the Great Financial Crisis’ for commercial real estate" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack?" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Private payrolls rose by 145,000 in March, well below expectations, ADP says" (CNBC)

"Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows" (CNBC)

"Bosses Want Hard Workers — So They’re Hiring Older People" (The Wall Street Journal)

"Great Resignation becomes Great Regret as workers long for their pre-Covid jobs" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Walmart aims for 65% of stores to be automation serviced by 2026" (Yahoo! Finance)

"Here's how many U.S. workers ChatGPT says it could replace" (Yahoo! Finance)

"The coming commercial real estate crash that may never happen" (CNBC)

"Diddy still pays Sting ‘$5,000 a day’ for sampling his hit song ‘Every Breath You Take’ 26 years ago" (CNBC)

"U.S. Debt to GDP Ratio 1989-2023" (Macrotrends)

Jim Cramer Says You're Good Unless you Work Here

Tue, 11 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

One of the world’s most well-known economists believes the banking crisis is far from over, and that U.S. authorities are merely buying themselves some time by insisting the banking system is “sound.” Nouriel Roubini, chief executive of consulting firm Roubini Macro Associates, argued on Friday that the financial system will be unable to cope with the sheer scale of private and public debt that has already been amassed, spawning a “trilemma” that will soon trigger another phase of panic.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the news that an inflation gauge that the Federal Reserve follows closely rose slightly less than anticipated in February, providing some hope that interest rate hikes are helping ease price increases.

Chris and Saied look at comments from asset management giant BlackRock stating that investors are too confident the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year and could pay the price later.

They also offer some thoughts on Jim Cramer's assertion that he’s still searching for the first sign of a recession, even though it’s all anyone seems to be talking about.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why Moody’s expects home prices to decline about 4% both in 2023 and in 2024.
The impact of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases on banks.
Why the Fed is on track to lose 100 billion by the end of the year.
Why markets are betting that the Fed will start cutting rates by July.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February, less than expected" (article from CNBC)

"Home prices suddenly jump after several months of declines" (article from CNBC)

"Bank Stress, Softer Inflation Just Made Fed’s Life Easier" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"BlackRock warns that investors are making a mistake by betting on the Fed to cut rates" (article from CNBC)

"‘Dr. Doom’ Nouriel Roubini warns economic ‘trilemma’ is making a financial crash inevitable" (article from Fortune)

"A recession may be coming, but Jim Cramer says he’s not seeing the early signs yet" (article from CNBC)

Charles Schwab Goes out for McDonalds and Gets Verified

Fri, 07 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

$47 billion. That's the amount of market capitalization Charles Schwab has had wiped out in just one month. The stock fell 33% between Feb. 28 and March 31. At the end of February, Charles Schwab's shares were trading at around $77.92. A month later, the price fell to $52.38. This is Charles Schwab's worst month since the October 1987 stock market crash, known as Black Monday. That day, the Dow Jones index lost 508 points, a decline of 22.6% and the largest daily decline in a stock market index at the time. Only the drop by 76% of the Icelandic stock market in 2008 would exceed this record.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss Federal Reserve data, showing that depositors have removed another $126 billion from U.S. banks during the week ending March 22. The biggest 25 banks lost $90 billion on a seasonally adjusted basis. Smaller banks, which suffered massive withdrawals the previous week as regulators seized regional lenders Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, were able to stabilize their outflows.

Chris and Saied look at a story from Forbes, indicating that more than 136,000 people lost their jobs in major layoffs at U.S. companies over the fiscal quarter ending this week, more than the prior two quarters combined, as tech and manufacturing layoffs, led by Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft, surged.

They also offer some thoughts on new housing market data, showing that existing home sales dropped in 12 of the last 13 months and existing home prices peaked last June. The surge of home prices during the height of the pandemic and the jump in mortgage rates since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates last March dampened home demand.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why cash remains king in this economy.
How consumers can guage buy or sell opportunities.
Why McDonald’s is closing its U.S. corporate offices as it lays off hundreds of workers.
Why there's been mostly silence from the National Bureau of Economic Research.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Depositors yank another $126 billion from US banks" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Charles Schwab Loses $47 Billion in Market Value in One Month" (article from TheStreet)

"136,000 laid off in major US job cuts this quarter - more than prior two quarters combined” (Forbes via Instagram)

"McDonald's temporarily shuts US offices, prepares layoff notices, Wall Street Journal reports" (article from Reuters)

"US Housing Market in Trouble: Moody's Predicts Home Prices Will Fall in 2023 and 2024" (article from TheStreet)

"Instagram sold 44,000,000 blue checks in one day at $15 a check" (DJ Key via Instagram)

"McDonald’s closes corporate offices as it lays off hundreds of workers" (article from CNBC)

Rawcession, Charles Schwab has Trouble and Saied Gets Pink Eye

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 03:00:00 -0700

As the US banking crisis drags on, investors are starting to unearth risks within Charles Schwab that have been hiding in plain sight. Unrealized losses on the firm’s balance sheet, loaded with long-dated bonds, ballooned to more than $29 billion last year. At the same time, higher interest rates are encouraging customers to move their cash out of certain accounts that underpin Schwab’s business and bolster its bottom line.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that Credit Suisse, the collapsed Swiss bank taken over by UBS Group in a hastily arranged bailout, has provided a safe haven for wealthy American clients to hide assets from the IRS — even after it was caught and prosecuted for doing the same thing more than a decade ago, according two former Credit Suisse bankers who are working with the U.S. government as whistleblowers.

Chris and Saied look at a report from the Labour Department, indicating that jobless claims for the week ended March 25 totaled 198,000, up 7,000 from the previous period and a bit higher than the 195,000 estimate.

They also offer some thoughts on the recent news that Binance Holdings, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, and CEO Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, are being sued by a US regulator for allegedly breaking trading and derivatives rules. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Binance shirked its obligations by not properly registering with it.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Where Silicon Valley Bank falls in line with the other banks across the country.
How a company’s market capitalization is estimated.
Why pending home sales were up 0.8% month over month in February.
The concept of a mansion tax.
And so much more...

Resources:

"First Citizens shares soar 50% after the bank buys a large chunk of failed Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)

"Where Financial Risk Lies, in 12 Charts" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Charles Schwab's $7 trillion empire built on low rates is showing cracks" (Bloomberg Businessweek via Instagram)

"Minneapolis Fed chair Neel Kashkari says "fundamentally, the banking system is sound"" (CBS News)

Debt on Blackstone buildings 47% more than portfolio's worth" (The RealDeal via Instagram)

"Apple plans to launch Apple Pay later - allowing users to split purchases into four payments with no additional fees” (Complex via Instagram)

Nick Gerli via Twitter

“Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected” (article from CNBC)

"Binance crypto exchange and CEO "CZ" Zhao sued by US regulator" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"Look: The Brutal Layoff Email Disney CEO Bob Iger Sent Employees Today" (article from TheStreet)

StockMKTNewz - Evan via Twitter

"Higher Rates Are Coming for U.S. Companies" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Markets Are Wrong on US Rate-Cut Bets, BlackRock Says" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"A Tale of Two Housing Markets: Prices Fall in the West While the East Booms" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Binance Sued by CFTC Over Evading U.S. Rules" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Binance Sees $2 Billion in Outflows as Troubles Compound" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"US pending home sales rise for third straight month; loan demand increases" (article from Reuters)

"Credit Suisse whistleblowers say Swiss bank has been helping wealthy Americans dodge U.S. taxes for years" (article from CNBC)

"Thanks to regulators, SVB will be the most costly bank failure in history" (article from The Hill)

Jerome Powell vs Ben Bernanke and Paul Volcker, Bank Conspiracy Theory and Don't Do This

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 03:00:00 -0700

As a series of U.S. lenders were besieged by customers yanking out their money this month, banking giants such as JPMorgan Chase & Co, Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp. warned employees: Do not make it worse. JPMorgan, the nation's largest bank, told all employees they "should never give the appearance of exploiting a situation of stress or uncertainty," in a March 13 memo. "We do not make disparaging comments regarding competitors."

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss data showing that customers have recently pulled nearly $100 billion in deposits, while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and more than a dozen other officials convened a special closed meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.

Chris and Saied look at news that Deutsche Bank’s stock plunged Friday as the market hones in on the German firm as the next major bank at risk in the wake of long-time rival Credit Suisse’s collapse and similar events stateside. Frankfurt-listed shares of Deutsche Bank dropped 7.5%, now down more than 25% since March 8, when confidence in the international banking system began to crumble.

They also offer some thoughts on data from Trepp, an analytics provider for the Structured Finance, CRE, and Banking markets, indicating that this year, roughly $270 billion in commercial mortgages held by banks are set to expire. This means that big owners of property face the prospect that beleaguered banks, especially smaller ones, could get more aggressive with lending arrangements, giving landlords even less room to breathe as they try to refinance a mountain of loans coming due.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Paul Volcker’s monetary policy career and Ben Bernanke’s role in AIG bailout.
Jerome Powell's role in the current banking crisis.
The two different types of lender in the commercial real estate space.
Why JP Morgan and Bank of America have been telling staff not to poach clients from stressed competitors.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Volcker Slayed Inflation. Bernanke Saved the Banks. Can Powell Do Both?" (article from Bloomberg)

"Exclusive: JPMorgan, Citi, BofA tell staff not to poach clients from stressed banks" (article from Reuters)

"Nearly $100 billion in deposits pulled from banks; officials call system ‘sound and resilient’" (article from CNBC)

Custodia Bank via Twitter

"Veteran of FDIC Takeover Tells What It’s Like to Run a Failed Bank" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"What’s Going On at Deutsche Bank?" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Commercial real estate is in trouble. A banking crisis will make it worse." (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Elon Musk says Jerome Powell is so bad at his job that GPT-4 would be a better Fed chair: ‘This foolish rate hike will worsen depositor flight’" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

Janet Yellen vs. Jerome Powell, a Recession Looms and Millennials Messed Up Everything

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Recession chatter has returned on Wall Street as markets deal with the blow of several bank failures and the potential economic aftermath. The likelihood of a U.S. recession is back on the rise for the first time since November 2022, according to the latest Bank of America fund manager survey released on Tuesday. About 42% of fund managers surveyed see a recession happening within the next 12 months, up from 24% in February. While fund managers aren't in universal agreement on a recession, they are almost in unison on the economy being stagnant over the next 12 months.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss data released by the Census Bureau, stating that housing starts, a measure of new home construction, rose by 9.8% in February from January, though that’s still down 18.4% from a year ago. Starts in January rose to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.450 million, up from the revised January estimate of 1.321 million.

Chris and Saied look at news that the Securities and Exchange Commission has unveiled fraud and unregistered securities charges against crypto founder and Grenadian diplomat Justin Sun, alongside separate violations against the celebrity backers of his Tronix and BitTorrent crypto assets, which included Jake Paul, Lindsay Lohan and Soulja Boy.

They also offer some thoughts on a review by Bloomberg News indicating that, in terms of layoffs, 2023 had the the worst start to a year since 2009, with nearly 52,000 jobs lost in one week in January alone. Since Oct. 1, executives across sectors have sacked almost half a million employees around the world.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why small regional banks really help small to midsize businesses.
The importance of understanding that the FOMC’s economic projections are not linear.
The difference between the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Agency.
The importance of getting permits before you apply for a construction loan.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Yellen: U.S. Could Intervene Again to Protect Banking System" (video from The Wall Street Journal)

"Home Prices Fell in February for First Time in 11 Years" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Global layoffs stretch far beyond big tech" (Bloomberg Business via Instagram)

"‘Already past the point of no return’: JPMorgan says the U.S. is probably headed for a recession as economic ‘engines are about to turn off’" (article from Fortune)

"Gen Z is racking up credit card debt faster than any other generation" (Businessweek via Instagram)

"BofA: 'Recession fears are up in March'" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"Goldman boosts US recession odds after slashing GDP forecast" (article from Yahoo! Finance)

"U.S. SEC threatens to sue Coinbase over some crypto products" (article from Reuters)

"Fed Raises Rates but Nods to Greater Uncertainty After Banking Stress" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Home sales spike 14.5% in February as the median price drops for the first time in over a decade" (article from CNBC)

"US home building surged in February" (article from CNN)

"Irvine company to build 4.5K apartments in Irvine" (article from TheRealDeal)

"LA cuts revenue predictions from new transfer tax by 25%" (article from TheRealDeal)

"SEC charges Tron founder Justin Sun, celebrities Lindsay Lohan, Jake Paul with crypto violations" (article from CNBC)

"Jake Paul earned over $2 million by promoting pump and dump crypto schemes" (article from Cryptoslate)

"11 things millennials ruined" (article from Mashable)

Credit Suisse Sells, Regional Banks and the Key to Happiness

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 03:00:00 -0700

Banking giant UBS is in discussions to take over all or parts of Credit Suisse, with the boards of Switzerland's two biggest lenders set to meet separately over the weekend. The Swiss National Bank and regulator FINMA are organising the talks in an attempt to build confidence in the country's banking sector. On Friday evening, Swiss regulators informed their counterparts in the United States and United Kingdom that the merger of the two banks was their "Plan A" to salvage the confidence in Credit Suisse. Several other options are also under discussion between the two banks as both sides try to evaluate regulatory constraints in different jurisdictions.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an 85-year long study by Harvard researchers indicating that, while particular roles can’t be reliably correlated with dissatisfaction and burnout, certain job characteristics can be. Jobs that require little human interaction and don’t offer opportunities to build meaningful relationships with co-workers tend to have the most miserable employees, the study found.

Chris and Saied look at news that Bitcoin has climbed to a nine-month high as turmoil in the banking sector drives some investors to turn to digital assets. It rose as far as $28,567, its highest since mid-June, and was last up 0.9%, amid growing expectations that central banks would slow the pace of interest rate hikes.

They also offer some thoughts on contingent convertible bonds, or CoCos, often described as high-yield investments with a hand grenade attached. The UBS takeover of Credit Suisse has pulled the pin on $17 billion of them.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

What’s happened at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday.
Why Switzerland is known for having low levels of financial risk and high levels of privacy.
Why the axing of Credit Suisse’s $17 billion contingent convertible (CoCo) debt has big implications for the newly combined bank and the wider market.
Bitcoin's climb to a nine-month high as turmoil in the banking sector sparks a rally.
And so much more...

Resources:

Markets and Mayhem via Twitter

"UBS in talks to acquire Credit Suisse" (article from The Financial Times)

Ulrich Körner via Wikipedia

"UBS buys Credit Suisse for $3.2 billion as regulators look to shore up the global banking system" (article from CNBC)

"UBS Agrees to Buy Credit Suisse for More Than $3 Billion" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Big Banks Best Positioned to Weather Crisis: Morningstar" (article from The Street)

"Credit Suisse's $17 billion of risky bonds are now worthless" (Bloomberg via Instagram)

"Why $17 billion in risky debt was wiped out in Credit Suisse rescue deal" (Bloomberg via Instagram)

Zerohedge via Twitter

"Bitcoin climbs to 9-month high as bank turmoil sparks rally" (article from Reuters)

"85-year Harvard study found that people with this type of job tend to be the unhappiest" (article from CNBC)

"Local Banks Could Leave Gaps That Are Hard to Fill" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

The Aftermath: Credit Suisses Lifeline and Consumer Spending

Tue, 21 Mar 2023 03:00:00 -0700

In a morning where more banking turmoil emerged and stocks opened sharply lower on Wall Street, traders shifted pricing to indicate that the Fed may hold the line when it meets March 21-22. According to CME Group data, the probability for no rate hike shot up to as high as 65%. Trading was volatile, though, and the latest moves suggested nearly a 50-50 split between no rate hike and a 0.25 percentage point move. Chairman Jerome Powell and his fellow policymakers will resolve the question over raising rates by watching macroeconomic reports that continue to flow in, as well as data from regional banks and their share prices that could provide larger clues about the health of the financial sector.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss the Census Bureau's most recent Household Pulse survey, which indicates that about 36% of consumers say it has been "somewhat" to "very difficult" for them to pay their usual bills in the last seven days.

Chris and Saied look at data from the Labor Department, revealing that inflation rose in February but was in line with expectations, likely keeping the Federal Reserve on track for another interest rate hike next week despite recent banking industry turmoil. The consumer price index increased 0.4% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 6%.

They also offer some thoughts on news that Credit Suisse Group AG is borrowing up to 50 billion Swiss francs, equivalent to $53.7 billion, from the Swiss central bank to shore up its liquidity, capping a day in which fears about the health of global banks leapfrogged to Europe from North America and the giant lender’s shares dropped as much as 24%.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Why the CPI will likely continue to come down.
The real cause of the recent bank failures.
Why Bank of America received more than $15 billion in deposits after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank.
The levels of regulatory scrutiny banks are required to have as they grow.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Bank stocks rebound, but crisis makes the Fed’s next move harder" (article from The Washington Post)

"Where inflation is... and isn't" (Yahoo! Finance via Instagram)

"BofA Gets More Than $15 Billion in Deposits After SVB Fails" (article from Bloomberg)

"What’s going on with Silicon Valley Bank?" (Dave Ramsey via Instagram)

"Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system" (article from CNBC)

"Stablecoin USDC breaks dollar peg after firm reveals it has $3.3 billion in SVB exposure" (article from CNBC)

"More Americans say they can't pay their bills. Here are the states where it's worst." (article from CBS News)

"Banks Borrow $164.8 Billion From Fed in Rush to Backstop Liquidity" (article from Bloomberg)

"One of the best ways to figure out what the Fed will do next is to look at regional bank stocks" (article from CNBC)

"Credit Suisse Promises Overhaul in Wake of Rout as Regulators Offer Lifeline" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Economy Shows Signs of Cooling as Bank Troubles Spread" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"Wholesale prices post unexpected decline of 0.1% in February; retail sales fall" (article from CNBC)

"Inflation gauge increased 0.4% in February, as expected and up 6% from a year ago" (article from CNBC)

"Moody's cuts outlook on U.S. banking system to negative, citing 'rapidly deteriorating operating environment'" (article from CNBC)

The Big SVB Episode

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 03:00:00 -0700

As we already know, Silicon Valley Bank, one of tech’s favorite lenders, has collapsed, becoming the second-largest bank failure in US history. The bank’s blowup has sent shockwaves across the tech sector, Wall Street, and Washington, amid concerns that other banks could be in trouble or that contagion could set in. In the days after SVB’s collapse, the panic appeared to spread, leading to the failure of additional banks, including Signature Bank of New York, which had bet on crypto. But it’s not clear how serious the fallout will be.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss news that Goldman Sachs no longer believes that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate hike at its meeting next week, citing “recent stress” in the financial sector.

Chris and Saied look at comments from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicating that a major government bailout of Silicon Valley Bank is not an option.

They also offer some thoughts on the departure of Silicon Valley Bank CEO Greg Becker from the board of directors at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

What actually happened at Silicon Valley Bank and which sector has been hurt most by its collapse.
Why 14 years of artificial interest rate deflation and unprecedented interest rate increases were guaranteed to create problems.
The bizarre phenomenon of new jobs being implemented on a monthly basis while layoffs continue to happen.
How Silicon Valley Bank made the Forbes list of America’s Best Banks for the fifth consecutive year.
And so much more...

Resources:

"What’s Going on With Silicon Valley Bank?" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"US Discusses Fund to Backstop Deposits If More Banks Fail" (article from Bloomberg)

"Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says U.S. government won’t bail out Silicon Valley Bank" (article from CNBC)

"Strong jobs report shows 311,000 jobs added in February" (article from CBS News)

"Fed Rate Pivot Is Back in Play" (article from Bloomberg)

"Goldman Sachs no longer expects the Fed to hike rates in March, cites stress on banking system" (article from CNBC)

"CEO of failed Silicon Valley Bank no longer a director at San Francisco Fed" (article from Reuters)

"Stablecoin USDC breaks dollar peg after firm reveals it has $3.3 billion in SVB exposure" (article from CNBC)

"What Country Has the Most Banks?" (article from HelgiLibrary)

Jerome Powell’s Testimony, Silicon Valley Bank and Poor People Tax

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 02:00:00 -0700

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has cautioned that interest rates are likely to rise higher than central bank policymakers had expected. Citing data showing that inflation has reversed the deceleration it showed in late 2022, Powell warned of tighter monetary policy ahead to slow a growing economy. His remarks imply that the peak, or terminal, level of the federal funds rate is likely to be higher than the previous indication from the Fed officials, and also that the switch last month to a smaller quarter-percentage point increase could be short-lived if inflation data continues to run hot.

In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.

They discuss an announcement from automaker Rivian indicating a drop in its cash position. Rivian had cash and cash equivalents of $12.1 billion on hand at the end of December, down from $13.8 billion at the end of the third quarter and $15.5 billion as of June 30.

Chris and Saied look at news that investors have dumped shares of SVB Financial Group and a collection of other U.S. banks after the lender said it lost nearly $2 billion selling assets following a larger-than-expected decline in deposits.

They also offer some thoughts on data from ADP, indicating that private payrolls increased by 242,000 in February, versus the estimate for 205,000 and above the 119,000 in January.

Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.

Enjoy!

What You’ll Learn in this Show:

Results of the most recent Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.
The voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank.
Demystifying concepts such as 'index plus margin' and a 'run on the bank.'
Why there is much more at play in banking than just finance.
And so much more...

Resources:

"Dow closes 570 points lower, turns negative for 2023 as Powell ignites higher rate fears: Live updates" (article from CNBC)

"Fed's Powell again rejects idea of raising inflation target" (article from Reuters)

"Rivian Stuns Investors With Very Bad News" (article from The Street)

"US unemployment is falling even as the economy slows. What the heck is going on?" (article from MarketWatch)

"Fed Chair Powell says interest rates are ‘likely to be higher’ than previously anticipated" (article from CNBC)

"Job openings declined in January but still far outnumber available workers" (article from CNBC)

"Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says" (article from CNBC)

"Banks Lose Billions in Value After Tech Lender SVB Stumbles" (article from The Wall Street Journal)

"System Open Market Account Holdings of Domestic Securities" (article from The New York Fed)

"Slack is introducing AI assistant that can write messages for you" (article from Morning Brew)