The Perch Pod with Jacob Shapiro

Making Sense of Iranian Unrest

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 10 Oct 2022 05:15:00 -0400

Got you again!

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Agricultural Currents: Food Prices, Fertilizer, & The Future

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 03 Oct 2022 03:45:00 -0400

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Ukraine is Winning!

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 19 Sep 2022 09:30:00 -0400

Ukraine’s counteroffensive last week was shockingly effective. Sim rejoins the show to explain what is happening on the ground…and to tease out the chances and attendant implications of a Russian defeat.

Sim Tack is Military Analyst at Force Analysis and GEOINT Analyst at AllSource Analysis. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack.

NYTimes article referenced here

TimeStamps:

1:54-11:15 – What’s happening?

11:15-23:35 – Ukraine’s Strategy

23:35-28:04 – Europe’s Resolve

28:04-42:10 – Russia’s Options

42:10-end – Implications of Russia’s Defeat

Cognitive Investments Link

Geopolitics and Cyberwarfare (+ Bitcoin Neutrality)

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 29 Aug 2022 03:30:00 -0400

ONE MORE MONTH OF PERCH POD BEFORE WE FINALLY, PERMANENTLY, IRREVOCABLY, IRRECOVERABLY, SWITCH TO THE COGNITIVE DISSIDENTS FEED.

GO!!!

SUBSCRIBE!!!

NOW >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> LINK HERE

Matt Pines, yet ANOTHER connection via the Twittersphere, breaks down the present day risks associated with cyber warfare and espionage across geopolitical boundaries. Matt is a management consultant at Krebs Stamos and a fellow at the Bitcoin Policy Institute. He is appearing on the podcast in a personal capacity.

Here is a link to Matt's white paper on bitcoin.

Tiestamps:

1:37 - 20:20 - Cyberwarfare

20:20 - 28:00- 5G + China + Huawei

28:00 - 34:44 - Trust Networks

34:30 - 45:35 - Has there every been a full-on cyber war?

45:35 - End - Let's talk bitcoin!

Whose Fault Is It Anyway? The Sino-Australian Breakup

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 22 Aug 2022 07:45:00 -0400

Take some time with us to explore the Sino-Australian breakup drama and hear an honest opinion from a real life Australian (his name is John Fowler and he's a former Australian diplomat and international lawyer) on why relations between the two are slowly but surely deteriorating. John and Jacob also talk AUS/NZ relations, viewpoints on the South Pacific and much, much, much more.

John is co-founder and CEO of International Intrigue, a newsletter at the intersection of geopolitics, business, and technology. We've included a link because you should go subscribe to it.

TimeStamps:

2:30-19:37 – Australia/China relations

19:37-25:20 – Australia/New Zealand relations

25:20-39:32 – The South Pacific

39:32-46:30 – Indonesia

46:30-57:57 – Latin America/France/Antarctica

57:59-1:05:30 – Taiwan

1:05:30 – International Intrigue

Cognitive Investments Link

Here Be Animal Spirits

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 15 Aug 2022 03:30:00 -0400

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How do inflationary cycles work? Are we in a tech innovation environment or are we just iterating on the same old concepts? Also, what constitutes "old"? Jordi Visser joins us this week to discuss these questions and much, much more (yes, we mean China).

Jordi Visser is the President and Chief Investment Officer of Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers LLC, a market neutral pioneer of the asset management industry. At Weiss, Jordi oversees the portfolio managers and is responsible for the overall risk aggregation. Additionally, he is the architect and a portfolio manager for the Weiss Alternative Multi-Strategy Fund (Ticker: WEISX).

Weiss Morning Seeds: https://hubs.la/Q01jhfjY0

Weiss Insights: https://hubs.la/Q01jhftd0

Weiss Podcast Page: https://hubs.la/Q01jhgds0

Timestamps:

2:20-14:42 – Inflation/Deflation

14:42-35:50 – Tech/longevity

35:50-45:38 – mRNA

45:38-1:03:30 – Energy

1:03:00 – end – China

66. Water We Waiting For? The Decline of Fresh Water

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 08 Aug 2022 14:02:00 -0400

Peter Mayer discusses the history the Colorado River Basin - and why it's a canary in the coal mine for the waves of water issues already sweeping the globe. Water access conflicts are going to escalate both nationally and internationally as the globe heats and our atmosphere's composition fluctuates. Peter and Jacob dive into the conflicts already occurring, ( eg. the Georgia vs. Florida water wars), the future of agriculture, and how we conserve water for posterity.

Peter is a professional engineer and urban water expert and the Principal and Founder of Water Demand Management. For more than 25 years, his work has focused on urban water management, water use patterns, assessing the impact of water rate structures and metering, evaluating water conservation measures and programs, forecasting future demand with and without conservation, preparing water conservation plans and conducting water supply scenario analysis.

Link to Lake Mead pics: https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150111/lake-mead-keeps-dropping

Peter’s website: https://www.waterdm.com/

TimeStamps

2:34-30:30 – Colorado River Basin

30:30-42:30 – Georgia v. Florida on water. (If I could have this on in the background during this section I would.)

42:30-50:30 – Agriculture

50:30 – Pete’s past

Cognitive Investments Link

The Art of Geopolitics w/ Stratfor

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 01 Aug 2022 05:45:00 -0400

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Rodger Baker is Executive Director at the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE – Risk Assistance Network + Exchange.

Timestamps

3:00-25:13: Mackinder and the Arctic

25:13-34:30: The Art of the Net Assessment

34:30-44:30: The biggest change of the last 25 years…and the biggest change to come

44:30-56:54: Will China invade Taiwan?

56:54-end: Around the world: Poland, Turkey, Indonesia, Korea, Brazil, and more

64. Economy, Energy, and The Odds Of a Recession

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 18 Jul 2022 08:45:00 -0400

Marko and Jacob explore the rumbles in the US Economy, energy trends, and geopolitical headwinds across the hemispheres. Marko Papic is a Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group.

Timestamps:

2:00-14:00 – U.S. Economy

14:00-21:36 – Oil/Natural Gas

21:36-35:54 – Europe

35:54-42:00 – China

42:00-52:52 – Saudi Arabia

50:52-59:11 – India

59:11-1:10:11 – Food

1:10:11-1:16:31 – Recession odds

1:16:31- end: Basketball

63. Who's Winning the Ukraine-Russia Conflict?

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 04 Jul 2022 10:35:00 -0400

Sim Tack revisits the Ukraine-Russia conflict with Jacob to talk about the war as it drags into its later stages. Sim is Chief Military Analyst at Force Analysis. His expertise is in intelligence-driven approaches to the study of armed conflicts and military capabilities, as well as other resources of power that support foreign policy behavior. You can follow him on Twitter @SimTack

Timestamps

4:30-16:45 – Russia-Ukraine War Update

16:45-19:45 – Grain tangent

19:45-27:15 – Who is winning? How important is Western support?

27:15-36:30 – Russia’s military capacity

36:30-48:45 – The future of NATO

48:45-56:45 – Talking about Turkey

56:45-end – Deep strikes

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com

Website: https://perchperspectives.com

62. A Polish Perspective on The Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Perch Perspectives LLC — Tue, 28 Jun 2022 03:30:00 -0400

Jacob brings on special guest Dr. Jacek Bartosiak to discuss the Polish perspective on the Russia-Ukraine War, the implications of Kaliningrad being sealed off from Russia, and much more.

Dr. Jacek Bartosiak is the Chief Executive Officer and Founder of Strategy & Future. He is the author of best-selling books including “Pacyfik i Eurazja. O Wojnie” (Pacific and Eurasia. On War” (2016), which focuses on the ongoing great power competition in Eurasia and the possible war in the Western Pacific. He is also the author of ”Rzeczpospolita między Lądem a Morzem. O wojnie i pokoju.” (Poland and Intermarium between the Land and the Sea Powers – (2018), which deals with the geostrategic reality Poland and Europe face in the era of great power competition and is an in-depth study of the Central Eastern European theatre of war and modern warfare.

Timestamps:

3:00-11:30: Kaliningrad

11:30-21:15: A Polish view of the world

21:15-28:30: The Suwałki Corridor

28:30-39:30: What happens next?

39:30-45:00: Ukraine and the new balance of power in Europe

45:00-End Turkey

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com

Website: https://perchperspectives.com

61. Kazakhstan, Pakistan, & Iran w/Kamran Bokhari

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 20 Jun 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Kamran Bokhari of the New Lines Institute dives deep into the turbulence brewing in Eurasia, with the war in Ukraine destabilizing some already tenuous relationships with Russia, and the US's decision to withdraw from Afghanistan and leave the Taliban in charge - The US, China, Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran are all pushing for a foothold in the region, with Kazakhstan at the center of this tug-of-war.

Kamran Bokhari is Director of Analytical Development at the New Lines Institute.

You can find his article on Kazakhstan here.

Timestamps:

0:00-18:00 – Kazakhstan

18:00-36:24 – Pakistan

36:24-48:30 – Iran

48:30-end: Russia/Turkey

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: jacob@perchperspectives.com

Website: https://perchperspectives.com

60. Geopolitics + Investing w/ Cognitive Investments

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 13 Jun 2022 05:30:00 -0400

Crossover episode! Cognitive Dissidents comes to the Perch Pod. Jacob and Rob sit down together (in person!) to talk about the between geopolitics and investing, why it makes sense to combine the two, and what they've learned in their time using them together.

~Imporant~

We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here!

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59. Biden's Missteps + More w/Cousin Marko

Perch Perspectives LLC — Fri, 03 Jun 2022 05:00:00 -0400

Marko Papic hops on the Perch Pod (transitioning to Cognitive Dissidents Pod) to talk Biden's new missteps, India, Russia, and SO much more. Marko is a partner and strategist at the Clocktower Group, as you've probably heard us say before - make sure to reach out to us with your thoughts, reactions, or insights!

1:15-21:15: Taiwan/Latin America

21:15-41:15: Russia/Ukraine

41:15-50:05: Europe

50:05-end: Basketball

~Imporant~

We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here!

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

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Socials:

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58. Inflation, Corn, and Turkey

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 16 May 2022 00:00:00 -0400

Chase Taylor joins Jacob for a SECOND time, discussing Inflation, Corn, Energy, and, of course, Turkey. Enjoy the conversation!

~Imporant~

We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here!

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57. Let's Talk About Sanctions w/Brian O'Toole

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 02 May 2022 00:00:00 -0400

Jacob and Brian O'Toole of the Atlantic Council chat about out the sanctions as a geopolitical weapon. Brian is a Former OFAC senior advisor and IC analyst, and a current nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. His Twitter handle is @brianoftoole

~Imporant~

We're switching channels to Cognitive Dissidents! Go follow here!

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Socials:

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Perch Perspectives LLC — Fri, 25 Feb 2022 16:12:00 -0400

EMERGENCY EPISODE

Cousin Marko Papic and Jacob convene an emergency meeting to discuss the ramifications and long-term efficacy of Russia's surprising full-on invasion of Ukraine.

Marko is a partner at the Clocktower Group, providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

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Socials:

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50: The View from Italy w/ Dario Fabbri

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 21 Feb 2022 00:00:00 -0400

Dario Fabbri hops back onto The Pod to discuss his views on global geopolitics from his perch in Italy. Dario and Jacob touch on Russia-Ukrainian relations, French-Italian relations, the future of Europe, and Italy’s greatest geopolitical threats.

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Timestamps:

1:12-10:12: Russia

10:12-21:37: Italy’s greatest geopolitical threat

21:37-32:30: The future of Europe

32:30-End: Thoughts on France and Italy

Links:

Download the transcript here.

Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here.

Socials:

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49: What is Putin Trying to Prove, Inflation, etc. with Marko Papic

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 07 Feb 2022 00:00:00 -0400

Come join Jacob as he gets the lowdown on Russia's (postured?) aggression towards Ukraine, China's role in the mix, money market drama, and of course, Basketball, with cousin Marko Papic!

Timestamps:

1:00-20:53: Russia

20:53-36:40: China + inflation

37:00-46:41: The Race to Zero/ESG investment concerns

46:40-56:10: Turkey and Brazil and Chile oh my!

55:10-1:04:20 Over-under

1:04:20-end: Basketball

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

Subscribe to the Perch Perspectives Newsletter here.

Check out LatamPolitik here!

Socials:

Twitter: @PerchSpectives

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48. The Dollar-Milkshake Theory

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 24 Jan 2022 00:00:00 -0400

Brent Johnson and Jacob talk fiat, crypto, milkshakes, and gold. Brent is the CEO of Santiago Capital, where he manages $175mm for High Net Worth families via separately managed accounts and private funds. He's fantastic at what he does, and he brings a particularly interesting perspective to the podcast.

Santiago Capital: https://santiagocapital.com/

Lykeion: https://www.thelykeion.com/

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

Subscribe to the Perch Pod Newsletter here.

Check out LatamPolitik here!

Socials:

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47: Will Russia Invade Ukraine with Max Suchkov

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 10 Jan 2022 00:00:00 -0400

One of the most pressing questions in current geopolitical affairs brings Max Suchkov back to the table for this week's episode. Will Russia Invade Ukraine? If so, why? Check in to this week's episode to hear a Russian perspective on the question.

Max is, of course, Director for both the Institute for International Studies and the Center for Advanced American Studies at Moscow State Institute of International Relations in Russia. If you're interested, you can learn more about Max's illustrious career here.

Questions? Comments? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

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Check out LatamPolitik here!

Socials:

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46: The Rise and Fall of the Death Penalty with Maurice Chammah

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 27 Dec 2021 00:00:00 -0400

"Politics is about justice, and power, and the interactions between them." Maurice Chammah, staff writer at the Marshall Project, comes on with Jacob to discuss the criminal justice system in the United States, which is about as political as things get. Maurice and Jacob discuss how we treat prisoners, how we deal with life and death, the origins and definitions of justice, our perceptions of justice, and what we think about as a collective of terms like good and evil.

Buckle up for another fantastic episode! Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

Maurice's fantastic book: Let The Lord Sort Them: The Rise and Fall of the Death Penalty

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Socials:

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45: Hydrogen is Inevitable w/ Garry Golden

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 13 Dec 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Garry Golden hops back into the fray after his appearance in episode 30! Garry is an academically trained, bona fide futurist who's been providing insights to clients on industry trends for a long time. Garry and Jacob talk about the future of hydrogen, the differences between electrification and decarbonization, and why Garry thinks that hydrogen is the inevitable future of clean energy. Cheers!

Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

Links:

Download the transcript here.

Garry's Innovative Learning Space in NYC: IntoTheFuture.nyc

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Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 06 Sep 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Joining us on the podcast this week is Chase Taylor. Chase is a macro trader and the global macro strategist and editor at Pinecone Macro Research. You can find more about Chase and his work here. Aside from his excellent work at Pinecone, Chase started in the Air Force working on B-1 bombers and spent a lot of his career as a geospatial intelligence analyst. Chase and Jacob delve into the future of investment (especially energy investment), Chase delivers some interesting and hot takes on the global climate crisis, we get into the weeds of Latin American politics and copper, and end the episode in the American energy sector. Hope you enjoy this episode as much as we did!

Links:

Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

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Socials-

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38: Nord Stream 2, US-German Relations, and Russia's Ukrainian Agenda

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 23 Aug 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Maria Shagina joins us on the podcast to talk about the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline project, its effect on US-German relations, and how Russia is using it as a political weapon against Ukraine. Dr. Maria Shagina is a CEES Postdoctoral Fellow at the Center for Eastern European Studies at the University of Zurich. She is currently affiliated with the Geneva International Sanctions Network. As a political risk analyst for Global Risk Insights, she covered energy politics and sanctions in post-Soviet countries. Needless to say, she's a badass.

Links:

Questions? Reach out at: info@perchperspectives.com

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Socials-

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37: Canadian Droughts, Food Systems, and Farms.

Perch Perspectives LLC — Wed, 11 Aug 2021 00:00:00 -0400

What happens when a drought pushes corn and wheat yield estimates low, and index prices even higher? Tune in as Neil Townsend and Jacob discuss the Canadian farming industry and its wide-reaching impacts on global food prices, food accessibility, and much, much more! Neil is, of course, Chief Market Analyst FarmLink Marketing Solutions.

Subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss any new episodes!  We put out new episodes every other Monday

Links:

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36: "The Race to Zero," Russia, Latin America, and The Bond Market

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 26 Jul 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Cousin Marko comes back to the Perch Pod to discuss a variety of topics. We'll get deep into the global "Race to Zero," hot takes on Russia, the bond market, Latin America, and, of course, the NBA. Watch out for some lighter-hearted segments that Marko and Jacob each wrote as tongue-in-cheek exercises (kinda) - they appear at the beginning and near the end! Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group.

Links:

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35: Iran, Israel, and Imran Khan

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 12 Jul 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Kamran Bokhari comes back to the Perch Pod to discuss Iran's newest "elections," details behind the Israel/Iran conflict, and the issues faced by ethnic minority populations of Xinxiang. Dr. Kamran Bokhari is the Director of Analytical Development at the Newlines Institute for Strategy & Policy.

Timestamps:

0:00-28:10: Iran’s June 6th election

28:10-49:46: How to think about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

49:46-END: Pakistan, China, and Uighurs

Links:

The interview mentioned at 51:10

Kamran’s Book

Link to Kamran’s Newlines Institute in the podcast description: https://newlinesinstitute.org/

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34: The New, Post-Pandemic Italy

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 28 Jun 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Dario Fabbri and Jacob talk about Italy as it emerges from the pandemic, the steps being taken towards recovery, and a reckoning with its colonial past. Dario is a journalist, scientific advisor and America coordinator of Limes. Expert in America and the Middle East. On twitter: @dlfabbri

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

You can check out the Limes Associates here.

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33: Investment, Macro-Finance, and Geopolitics from 20,000 Meters

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 14 Jun 2021 00:00:00 -0400

Sune Sorensen and Jacob discuss the macro-forces that push investment and finance across the globe, and how geopolitics weaves its way into the world of global finance. Sune is the founder of Librarium Associates, an Advisory Board member at BFI Capital, a Partner and advisor to the Orbis28 Family Office Solutions platform, a Partner at the Malmgren Strategic Institute, and a Board Member and the Director of Macro Research with The Strategic Funds Group.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:40 What is Macro-Thinking?

06:10 How has the Democratization of Information affected Macro-based insights?

08:27 Discussing Sune's unique perspective based on living in Switzerland

22:07 The Future of the EU

25:22 Where is Globalization Trending?

36:09 The push and pull between Democracy and Capitalism

42:15 Where does Crypto fall into this conversation?

47:44 Basketball!

You can check out the Librarium Associates here

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32: Russian Domestic Issues, Perspectives on American Politics and Ukraine

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 31 May 2021 00:00:00 -0400

In this episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob speaks with Andrey Shushentsov. Andrey is the Director, Institute for International Studies at MGIMO University. In this episode they talk about Russian domestic conflicts, Russian views on American politics and Ukraine. Here are the timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:53 A Russian perspective on American Politics

10:08 What does Russia want with their relationship with the US?

15:15 The Key Pressure Point between US and Russia: Ukraine

28:30 Russian Domestic Issues

40:17 Will there be a successor after Putin?

45:47 Outro

If you speak and/or Understand Russian Check out Andrey's Youtube channel

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31: Internal Israeli Politics w/ Nitzan David Fuchs

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 17 May 2021 00:00:00 -0400

In this episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob speaks with Israeli Geopolitical Analyst, Nitzan David Fuchs. They speak about the internal politics of Israel. They discuss the Abraham Accords, Israel’s biggest national security challenge of the future and the possibility of an independent Kurdish State in our lifetimes

00:00 Intro

11:00 Israeli Elections

16:50 Internal Israeli politics

25:00 The truth about the “Abraham Accords”

40:38 Israel’s biggest national security challenge of the future

56:40 Possibility of an Independent Kurdish State?

59:40 Outro

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30: What is Cryptocurrency? Breaking Down Decentralized Finance and Cardano (ADA)

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 03 May 2021 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Gary Golden. Gary is an academically trained futurist. They speak about the overall concept of a blockchain, how cryptocurrency got to where it is now and where it is going. Here are the timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:35 What is blockchain?

07:35 What is Cryptocurrency?

16:32 What is DeFi? (Decentralized finance)

25:52 What is Cardano (ADA)?

47:26 Geopolitics of ADA/Ethiopia

54:51 Charles Hoskinson and the future of crypto/DeFi

01:02:40 Outro

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29: What are the Implications of an Independent Scotland? w/ Anthony Salamone

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 19 Apr 2021 04:00:00 -0400

In today’s episode, Jacob speaks with Anthony Salamone, Founder and Managing Director of European Merchants, which is a Scottish political analysis firm based in Edinburgh. Check out his work on the European Merchants website here. Anthony and Jacob discuss that if Scotland was independent, what some of the foreign policy questions an independent Scotland would look like? They also discuss how realistic an independent Scotland actually is.

Timestamps

00:00 Intro

5:00 Why should Scotland join the EU?

16:36 The future of the EU

27:12 Scottish relations with NATO/Five Eyes

35:15 Scottish elections

45:00 Scottish independence -- how real?

01:03:18 Outro

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28: Reflecting and Breaking down the Idea of Geopolitics with Professor and Author Phil Kelly

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 05 Apr 2021 04:00:00 -0400

Today’s guest is Phil Kelly. Phil’s a Professor at Emporia State University. He is the author of Classical Geopolitics which is one of the five books Jacob has assigned almost every geopolitical analyst he has ever trained. He and Jacob talk about the definition and intention of Geopolitics and delve into the Geopolitics of Latin America. Check out

00:00 Intro

03:37 Why Geopolitics?

06:08 What is Geopolitics?

24:09 Geopolitics of the “Three Americas”

46:06 Mexico + South America- Discussing Immigration and Climate Change

Outro 51:52

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Check out LatamPolitik here!

27: Introducing LatamPolitik! + The Economics and Geopolitics of Fracking w/ Bethany McLean

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 22 Mar 2021 04:00:00 -0400

In today’s episode, Jacob speaks with Bethany McLean, an American journalist and contributing editor for Vanity Fair magazine. She is known for her writing on the Enron scandal and the 2008 financial crisis. They talk about her latest book, Saudi America The Truth About Fracking and How It's Changing the World. Here are the timestamps:

00:00 - Intro

04:20 - Check out LatamPolitik here!

07:06 - The Economics of Fracking

29:31 - The Geopolitics of Fracking + the U.S. as an Energy Superpower

45:54 - Enron

52:12 - Outro

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Check out LatamPolitik here!

26: A Conversation about Romania’s Current and Future Geopolitical Position

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 08 Mar 2021 05:00:00 -0400

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In this episode, Jacob speaks with Radu Magdin. He's the CEO of Smartlink Communications. He's a global analyst, consultant, trainer, think tanker, a former prime ministerial advisor in Romania and Moldova. Writes all over the place all the time if you're interested in things Eastern and Central Europe. Here’s what they talked about: (08:27 onwards)

00:00 Intro- A brief on Brazil (Bolsonaro), China (Rare Earth)

08:27 Radu’s thoughts on Romania’s current geopolitical position

11:52 Where does Romania stand on the future of the Transatlantic Relationship

19:16 A conversation about Nord Stream 2

26:54 Romania’s potential future with China?

31:27 Romania and Turkey Relations

35:28 Outro

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25: A $GME (GameStop) Retrospective +The Geopolitics of AI and Semiconductors

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 22 Feb 2021 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Chris Seifel. He founded Seifel Capital after a career investing in private markets, and brings a private equity approach to public markets. The reflect on GameStop’s short selling, the geopolitics of AI and Semiconductors. Jump to a section of their conversation using these timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:56 What’s the deal with Gamestop stock?

14:46 How Information affects markets- How the $GME rollercoaster has changed things

39:35 The Geopolitics of AI

53:19 The Geopolitics of Semiconductors

01:08:41 Over-Unders

01:15:24 Outro (LIKE, SUBSCRIBE AND LEAVE US A RATING!)

Read Seifel Capital’s newsletter, penned by Chris, here

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24: A Discussion on Recent Scottish Political Developments, Potential Independence and more Over-Unders

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 08 Feb 2021 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Tom Macleod. Tom is an anchor and journalist for Sky News and has also worked for the BBC World Service. He holds a Masters in Geopolitics from the University of Sussex. He’s covered some of the world's biggest breaking stories and has a particular interest in International Affairs and Scotland’s future in the global arena. Here’s what they talk about:

00:00 Introduction 00:00

02:30 Assessing recent political developments in Scotland

13:00 Politics v. emotion in independence votes

20:42 The EU’s view of Scotland

30:37 Scottish foreign policy considerations

51:02 Geopolitical over-unders

01:00:16 Outro

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23: The Economics of Climate Change and Renewable Energy + SAP Climate 21 initiative

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 25 Jan 2021 05:00:00 -0400

On this episode, Jacob speaks with Tom Raftery. Tom is a Global VP, Futurist, Podcaster and Innovation Evangelist for SAP. They talk about SAP's Climate 21 initiative, the economics of renewable energy and the important role water plays in the sustainability conversation.

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro

02:21 What’s the craic with COVID?

11:26 SAP Climate 21 initiative

24:01 The economics of climate change + renewable energy

38:14 Water

43:18 What to eat in Seville
44:35 Outro

Check out Tom's Podcasts here:
Digital Supply Chain Podcast: https://plinkhq.com/i/1466599957?to=page
Climate 21 Podcast: https://www.climate21podcast.com/

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22: SURPRISE EPISODE: Capitol Riot, Impeachment #2, Biden Stimulus, Basketball/Geopolitical Over-Unders

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 18 Jan 2021 05:00:00 -0400

Marko Papic, now known as “Cousin Marko,” is back! In this surprise episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob and Marko talk about the economic and political impact of the Capitol riot, 2nd impeachment and Biden Stimulus. They also de-stress with a quick discussion about basketball and end the episode with a game of some over-unders (starting at 40:00).

Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group. He leads their strategy team providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book: https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

03:19 Marko’s macro perspective - Capitol Riots, 2nd Impeachment and Biden Stimulus

11:20 Political future of the U.S.

29:00 Basketball!

39:56 Geopolitical and NBA over-unders

57:10 - Outro

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21: Japan's Domestic Politics, International Relations and Historical Comparisons

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 11 Jan 2021 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Stephen Nagy, a Senior Associate Professor in the Department of Politics and International Studies at the International Christian University of Tokyo and a distinguished fellow of Canada’s Asia Pacific Foundation about Japan’s history, international relations and geopolitical future.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

04:40 Will Japan act more independently of the US?

10:39 Comparing Japan in the 20th century to Japan today

17:01 Domestic Japanese politics and Shinzo Abe’s legacy

29:00 Japan’s view of the region

35:40 Japan-South Korea relations

42:20 Stephen’s favorite Japanese food dish

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20: A Year In Review: The Good, The Bad and the Ugly of 2020

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 28 Dec 2020 05:00:00 -0400

Xander’s back for the last episode of 2020! This year has been quite the geopolitical ride and Jacob is here to break down its best, worst and everything in between. Xander is the Vice President of analysis at Perch Perspectives. Xander also has his own podcast called ReConsider.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:37 The almost US-Iran war

04:42 Turkey’s busy 2020

08:10 US-China phase 1 trade deal

11:56 SPICY TIBET TAKE, thoughtful Xinjiang take

16:11 The state of US politics

21:07 Looking back at COVID

24:54 Ethiopia

26:37 Hurricanes, typhoons, fires

31:39 COVID 19 as a Geopolitical Accelerant

36:41 Looking ahead to 2021

37:07 Important elections

38:01 Food insecurity

40:53 Scotland and Brexit

45:23 How climate change will affect politics

51:37 Outro

Check out Xander’s Podcast: https://reconsidermedia.com/category/podcasts/

19: South Korea Episode! Discussing its Relations with China, North Korea and the US

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 14 Dec 2020 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Tony Rinna. Tony is a senior editor at Sino-NK, a research website dedicated to producing academic research on North-East Asia for popular consumption. He’s been a resident of South Korea since 2014. Read his latest article about Asia Policy here: https://www.nbr.org/publication/russia-south-korea-relations-and-the-u-s-indo-pacific-strategy/

Timestamps:

00:00 HOT TAKE Intro: Is China really the US’s Boogeyman?

4:15 Covid in South Korea

14:12: How does South Korea feel about U.S. election results?

24:55: South Korea’s view of China

35:10: What’s next with North Korea?

49:50: The most important thing you aren’t thinking about re: South Korea

57:39 Tony’s favorite Korean food dish

58:52 Outro

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18: Nihilism, The Dream Team v. Yugoslavia and Geopolitical Investment Predictions w/Marko Papic

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 30 Nov 2020 05:00:00 -0400

On this episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob speaks with Marko Papic. Knowing Jacob from his Stratfor days, Marko is currently a partner at the Clocktower Group. He leads their strategy team providing research to clients and partners on geopolitics, macroeconomics and markets. He has recently published a book called Geopolitical Alpha: An Investment Framework for Predicting the Future.

Marko’s Book: https://www.amazon.com/Geopolitical-Alpha-Investment-Framework-Predicting-ebook/dp/B08LDNBF78

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

3:06 The Virtues of Nihilism

8:54 The one thing Marko wants you to know

9:56 The Buenos Aires Consensus

14:08 Why should you care about median voter theory

29:29 Future of the EU

36:46 Debating India as an investment

44:44 How to think about the U.S.-China relationship

54:49 The Dream Team v. Yugoslavia

1:03:00 Outro

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17: Freedom of Speech in the Muslim World w/ Kamran Bokhari

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 16 Nov 2020 05:00:00 -0400

Jacob speaks with Kamran Bokhari (again!) Along with being the first repeat guest on the podcast, Kamran is the Director of Analytical Development at the Center for Global Policy where he heads the Governance and Muslim Majority States Program. This time, Jacob and Kamran have a detailed conversation about the current events and politics of the Muslim world.

Timestamps:

Intro 00:00

2:24 Recap on the Muslim-Turkey diplomatic spat

4:58 Why is depicting the Prophet Muhammed such a controversial issue?

14:47 Freedom of speech in the Muslim world

28:21 Turkey’s political use of Islam

46:15 Global context

53:41- Outro

Check out Jacob and Kamran’s first conversation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1ED9GtCQUQ&ab_channel=PerchPerspectives

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16: A Deep Dive on the Presidential Cabinet- Origin, Tradition and Future w/ Lindsay Chervinsky

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 02 Nov 2020 05:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob talks to Lindsay Chervinsky, a historian of early America, the Presidency and especially the Presidential Cabinet. Lindsay came out with a new book linked here. Here’s what they talk about:

00:00 Intro

2:50 The British origins of the cabinet as an institution

9:41 The importance of republican virtue

15:44 The cabinet’s glass ceiling

19:52 Did the cabinet ultimately succeed or fail? Jefferson v. Hamilton

30:59 The future of the cabinet

36:34 Criticism of sitting presidents by former cabinet officials

40:50 Lindsay’s favorite cabinet members in history

45:53 Outro

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15: Russia Episode! A Discussion on Foreign Policy Priorities, Vladimir Putin and International Relations w/ Max Suchkov

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 19 Oct 2020 04:00:00 -0400

Register for the Communications and Geopolitics Webinar HERE: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/communications-and-geopolitics-what-leaders-need-to-know-now-tickets-122586488487

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Max Suchkov, a Senior Fellow and Associate Professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO). He is also a non-resident expert at the Russian International Affairs Council and an Associate Research Fellow at the Italian institute of International Political Studies.

Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction

2:46 What’s the trajectory of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict?

9:35 Whither Iran?

15:07 What are the chances for direct Russia-Turkey conflict, now and in the future?

25:55 What are Russia’s top foreign policy priorities?

32:50 What does Russia think about Xinjiang?

36:49 A Russian’s view of the US

48:20 Will Putin still rule Russia in 2030?

50:48 Outro

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14: Can You Compare China’s Actions in Hong Kong to India’s Actions in Kashmir? w/ Amal Sinha

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 05 Oct 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob talks to Amal Sinha, consulting editor at The Kootneeti which is an Independent Media House based in Delhi publishing pieces having to do with International Relations, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, Economy & Global Elections.

Timestamps-

00:00 introduction
2:00 Is there a double standard between China and India?

14:12 Defining a "Modern Nation"
20:24 Do the ends justify the means in Jammu and Kashmir?

30:57 The demographics and history of Kashmir

39:09 Hong Kong is obscuring what China is doing in Xinjiang

47:50 Did we resolve anything?

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13: Nathan Carson on the Future of Food Supply Chains and the Geopolitics of Food

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 21 Sep 2020 06:47:00 -0400

In this episode Jacob talks to Nathan Carson, Inventory Control Manager at Chemical Dynamics- a family owned and operated liquid fertilizer manufacturing company based in Central Florida. Previously, Nathan worked for EY’s agribusiness team in Chicago and specialized in identifying mega-trends that are driving the future of agriculture.

Timestamps:

Intro 00:00

Food and geopolitics: how drought led to the Arab Spring 2:00

China’s African Swine Fever epidemic and how it affected COVID-19 7:25

Centralization of agriculture 11:40

How should food supply chains...and how will they change? 20:37

Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa 32:23

The dangers of exporting to China...and exporting in general 40:53

Why is America so fat? 47:12

Nathan’s uplifting final takeaway 53:48

Outro 57:08

12: Rory Medcalf on Indo-Pacific, China and India’s Futures and Australian Domestic Politics

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 07 Sep 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode of the Perch Pod, Jacob speaks with Rory Medcalf, head of the National Security College at the Australian National University. Rory has also been a Senior Strategic Analyst with the Australian Office of National Intelligence (formerly the Office of National Assessments) and served as an Australian Diplomat with postings in many countries including India and Japan. He has recently written a book titled: Indo-Pacific Empire: China, America and the contest for the world's pivotal region

Timestamps
00:00 Intro

2:14 The latest on the Quad

6:30 What is the Indo Pacific?

16:40 The Future of China

25:59 The Future of India

31:04: India and Kashmir v. China and Hong Kong

37:00 Australia’s domestic politics as a role model for other democracies

43:44 The curveball/googly: Rory’s favorite Australian PMs

47:28 Outro

Rory’s Book: https://www.amazon.com/Indo-Pacific-Empire-Contemporary-American-Canadian/dp/1526150786

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11: Rui Ma on the Tik Tok ban, Huawei's Vulnerabilities and Chinese Entrepreneurship

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 24 Aug 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Rui Ma- advisor, creator and co-host of the Tech Buzz China Podcast about the Tik Tok ban, the US aggression towards Huawei and how to foster and innovative, entrepreneurship based ecosystem in China.

Timestamps
00:00 Podcast and Guest Introduction

5:00 The TikTok Ban and WeChat Restrictions

9:20 Explaining the US aggression towards Huawei

13:30 The key vulnerabilities of Huawei

27:55 What does China’s technology ecosystem look like?

38:11 How can China foster an innovative environment and keep its talent?

45:02 Rui’s upcoming e-book on Bytedance

50:25 Outro

Tech Buzz China Podcast: https://www.techbuzzchina.com/episodes

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10: Xander Snyder on Geopolitical and Economic Shifts Caused by COVID-19, American focus on Huawei and 5G Race

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 10 Aug 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode Jacob speaks with Xander Snyder, Vice President of Analysis at Perch Perspectives. They talk about the current COVID-19 data, Unemployment in the US vs Germany, the 5G race, and much more.

Timestamps:
00:00 Intro

1:38 Re-Interpreting Current COVID-19 data

5:52 Why is the Hospitalization rate for 20-40 year olds so high?

8:15 COVID vs the Flu

10:37: China’s response to COVID-19 and the “Third Opium War”

18:03 Q2 economic figures

21:04 The Status of the Dollar as a Global Reserve Currency

29:07 Unemployment in the US vs. Germany

33:30 Competitive Global Markets vs Federal Intervention

36:30 The 5G race

42:08 What’s the most important thing that happened this week?

Xander's Podcast: https://reconsidermedia.com/category/podcasts/

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9: Stephanie Henaro on US/Mexico Relations, AMLO and Mexico's Next 10 Years

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 27 Jul 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Stephanie Henaro, writer for El Economista, Geopolitical Analyst and Consultant, and a member of the Mexican Council on Foreign Affairs. They discuss US/Mexico relations, an outside the box solution to end cartel violence and the war on drugs and Mexico's next 10 years.

Timestamps:
00:00Podcast Introduction
6:30 US/Mexico's Current Relations
16:31 Mexico and Venezuela
19:19 Cartel Violence and The War on Drugs
26:45 Mexico in 10 Years
29:45 Stephanie's Favorite Mexican Leader

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8: Dario Fabbri on Italy and the EU, the Malleability of European Identity and the Function of NATO

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 13 Jul 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Dario Fabbri, a journalist, scientific advisor and the America Coordinator at Limes, an Italian Journal on Geopolitics. The go back and forth on the future of the European Union, the malleability of European identity and NATO.

Here are the detailed timestamps for this episode if you want to listen to a specific portion:

1:42-13:22 - COVID 19’s impact of Italian perceptions of the EU
13:23-29:29 - How malleable is European Identity?
29:30-36:51 - Introduction to the NATO Discussion
36:52-39:02 - Will Turkey be in NATO in 10 years?
39:03- 41:36 - Will France be in NATO in 10 years?
41:37-46:58 - What is NATO’s main purpose presently?
46:59-51:42 - Italy/China relations post COVID

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7: Kamran Bokhari on the Evolution of Geopolitics, the Possibility of a New Caliphate, and Islam's Globalization

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 29 Jun 2020 04:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob speaks with Dr. Kamran Bokhari, Director of Analytical Development at the Center for Global Policy where he heads the Governance and Muslim Majority States Program. They talk about the evolution of the discipline of Geopolitics, if it is possible for a Muslim power to successfully re-establish the Caliphate within our lifetimes, the Islamic World’s response to the recession of globalization trend and what American Foreign Policy should look like after the 2020 election.

Timestamps:
1:24 - 13:28 - What is the Center for Global Policy?
13:29 - 21:05 - Is there a Muslim approach to geopolitics and if so how does it differ from its western counterpart?
21:11- 26:45 - The evolution of geopolitics
26:46 - 49:42 - Will a Muslim power successfully re-establish the caliphate within our lifetime?
47:43 - 59:45 - The Islamic World’s potential response to the recent recession of globalization
59:46 - 1:07:31 - What should American Foreign Policy look like after the 2020 election in November?

Kamran’s Book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/1137008040?tag=duckduckgo-d-20&linkCode=ogi&th=1&psc=1

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6: John Minnich on China's Economic Rise and its Future with the US

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 15 Jun 2020 07:00:00 -0400

In this episode, Jacob talks to John Minnich, a Ph.D student at MIT in Government specializing in Chinese Foreign Policy, specifically US/China relations. Jacob and John discuss China's economic rise to power in the 20th century and how its future relationship with the US is going to evolve.

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5: Neil Townsend on the Food Supply Chain Under COVID-19

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 01 Jun 2020 14:00:00 -0400

Jacob sits down with Neil Townsend, Chief Market Analyst FarmLink Marketing Solutions. They have a conversation about how food supply chains are breaking around the world due to COVID-19 and what the future of these supply chains looks like in response to the pandemic.

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4: Andrey Sushentsov on Russia's Response to COVID 19, Political Relationships and its Future after Putin

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 18 May 2020 08:30:00 -0400

Jacob chats with Andrey Sushentsov, president of Eurasian Strategies, about Russia as it relates to a world post-COVID. They discuss COVID19's impact on political forecasts, the future of Russia after Putin, relations with Saudi Arabia and Venezuela, and much, much more.

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3: Abdolrasool Divsallar on The Past, Present, and Future of US/Iran Relations

Perch Perspectives LLC — Mon, 04 May 2020 09:53:00 -0400

Jacob sits down with Abdolrasool Divsallar (known to his friends as Farzam) to discuss the past, present and future of US-Iran relations. Farzam brings history to the table in order to help us unpack the last century or so of US-Iran relations, explaining the constituent pieces needed to understand how the two have gotten to where they are.

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2: David Judson on the Geopolitics of Cities, Nations and Water

Perch Perspectives LLC — Tue, 21 Apr 2020 11:32:00 -0400

Jacob Shapiro sits down with David Judson to discuss the geopolitical realm of nation vs city states. They entertain ideas around disbanding entirely with the nation-state model, and explore water as a source of international interconnectedness.

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1: Jeremy Boynton on Investment Decisions under COVID 19

Perch Perspectives LLC — Fri, 27 Mar 2020 04:19:00 -0400

Jacob's good friend Jeremy Boynton from Laureate Wealth Management joins this inaugural podcast to compare layman's notes on what we know about COVID-19 and what it means for making investment decisions. They also touch on the future of globalization, cryptocurrencies... and how the pandemic is (or isn't) testing their respective faiths.

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