Top Traders Unplugged

ALO33: The Psychology Behind Better Asset Allocation ft. Aoifinn Devitt

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alan Dunne speaks with Aoifinn Devitt about what it really means to build resilient portfolios in a world of shifting regimes and competing narratives. Drawing on experience across pensions, hedge fund advisory, and private wealth, Aoifinn reflects on how institutional lessons translate to individual investors. The conversation explores the role of diversification, the evolving case for private markets, and the limitations of labels such as hedge funds, factors, or alternative assets. Along the way, they discuss the behavioral traps that influence allocators, the challenges of manager selection, and why outcome based investing may offer a clearer framework for navigating uncertain markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Aoifinn on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introducing Aoifinn Devitt and her background

03:14 - From corporate law to a career in finance

05:16 - Institutional vs private wealth portfolio construction

09:47 - How macro regimes influence asset allocation

12:53 - Rethinking the endowment model and private markets

15:32 - Private credit and diversification challenges

18:13 - Total portfolio approach vs traditional allocation

21:27 - Bonds, equities, and changing correlations

27:52 - Concentration risk and the dominance of mega cap stocks

37:33 - The evolving role of hedge funds in portfolios

42:35 - Gold, commodities, and inflation protection

46:23 - Behavioral biases and long term market cycles

57:35 - Advice for young professionals entering finance

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI390: When Narratives Change Faster Than Markets ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Markets can shift direction faster than the narratives used to explain them. In this episode, Niels and Alan unpack the sharp reversal in bond markets, the geopolitical tensions shaping energy prices, and the role of options flows in keeping equity indices pinned despite rising uncertainty beneath the surface. The conversation moves through recent hedge fund industry discussions in Miami, renewed interest in portable alpha and the total portfolio approach, and the growing influence of AI on economic thinking and policy debates. Along the way, they revisit the core role of trend following in portfolios, explaining why its value often appears precisely when traditional allocations struggle most.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

01:38 – Bond market reversal and shifting macro narratives

03:29 – Options flows and the pinning of equity indices

10:13 – AlphaQuest closure and pressures in short term trading strategies

15:14 – Crisis alpha and how trend differs from a 60/40 portfolio

23:18 – Recent CTA performance and trend opportunities across markets

25:23 – Key takeaways from the Miami hedge fund conference

37:48 – AI, productivity, and the policy dilemma for the Fed

46:40 – Political dynamics behind the potential Fed leadership shift

50:13 – Trend following as the “midfield player” in portfolios

58:08 – Building a portfolio of CTAs and the challenge of tracking indices

01:07:20 – Is CTA beta stable enough to benchmark?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO10: The Fourth Turning Is Here: How to Trade the Regime Shift ft. Neil Howe

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan sits down with Neil Howe to examine what a true regime shift means for markets and society. Howe argues that we are deep into a Fourth Turning, a generational winter that historically brings institutional fracture, geopolitical strain, and inflation that reshapes debts, assets, and political power. Cem ties that arc to today’s realities: the exhaustion of the 40 year tailwind from falling rates, record valuations meeting refinancing risk, and the uncomfortable truth that 60/40 has failed for long stretches before.

They explore the growing divide between capital and labor, the pivot from globalization to industrial policy, and the rising appeal of commodities, cash, and convex hedges in a world where outcomes are less linear. Howe also details how his Fourth Turning ETF reflects that view, pairing thematic equities with real assets and disciplined tail protection.

This is a conversation about preparing, not predicting, when history starts to rhyme a little louder.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:28 - Introducing Neil Howe and why this conversation matters now

03:37 - What the Fourth Turning is and how the cycle works

10:26 - “The Fourth Turning Is Here” and the practical question: what do we do?

16:42 - Rates, inequality, and why the last 40 years may not repeat

20:17 - Inflation as a crisis tool, not a forecasting error

26:43 - Options, convexity, and non-linear portfolios in regime change

33:31 - The surge into “non-correlated” assets and what it signals

39:39 - Market closures, devaluation, and the limits of buy-the-dip history

45:28 - Commodities as a missing portfolio leg and the volatility debate

48:12 - Howe’s ETF framework: themes, commodities, cash, and tail hedges

52:43 - Timing the crisis, geopolitics, and the authoritarianism question

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI389: The Market Is Pinned, But Risk Is Growing ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alan Dunne and Cem Karsan explore a market that appears calm on the surface yet increasingly unstable underneath. As indices move sideways, they discuss how options flows and structured products are reshaping market behavior, driving rotation rather than direction. From the weakening of former leaders to the rise of defensives, the conversation turns to what these shifts may signal about a broader topping process. They also examine the growing influence of AI narratives, political incentives, and global tensions, not as isolated shocks but as forces building pressure within the system. The result is a discussion about how markets evolve when structure, policy, and sentiment begin to move out of sync.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Cem on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 Intro to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 Performance check: CTAs strong, trend tailwinds

03:13 Range-bound indices, but big dispersion and rotation

03:45 Why options pin the index: dealer flows and vol compression

05:42 Dispersion mechanics: idiosyncratic risk, falling correlation

07:32 Rotation as a topping process: leaders fade, defensives rise

09:54 OPEX and quarterly expiries: why timing windows matter

11:56 The March support effect, then weaker flows into April

17:02 AI narrative shock: anxiety, backlash, and policy consequences

22:32 Populism versus deflation stories: why inflation returns

32:43 Gold outlook: secular bull, but expect two-sided volatility

45:45 Rates as “tectonic plates”: vol compressed now, release later

50:23 Midterms, incentives, and the fight for control

57:42 Liquidity loop: markets stop rising, collateral stops expanding

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL46: The Business Model Trap: Why Short Ideas Start in the Real World ft. Mark Roberts

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In today’s episode we talk to Mark Roberts, founder of Off Wall Street, a legendary provider of short selling research to hedge funds. Seven months before Enron became the biggest bankruptcy in US corporate history, Off Wall Street published a report recommending the shares be sold. The success of this call made Mark and Off Wall Street synonymous with original and rigorous research. We talk to Mark about his unusual personal background, how being a hippie in Berkeley in the 1960s prepared him for identifying overvalued companies two decades later. He explains why questionable accounting and high valuations are the “symptoms, not the disease” and compares today’s markets with those of the Dotcom era. His new book, Off Wall Street How To Win At Short Selling By Betting Against The Crowd was just released in February 2026.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:41 - Introducing Mark Roberts, Off Wall Street, Enron, and the book

03:35 - An unconventional path: French literature, skepticism, and early life choices

07:40 - The first “short sale”: selling a failing steel business and learning risk firsthand

11:10 - Fidelity, Peter Lynch, and the origins of independent short research

16:48 - Founding Off Wall Street and the first major short thesis (TCBY)

27:34 - How short ideas are built, tested, and abandoned without sunk-cost bias

30:56 - Business models vs accounting: why accounting issues are symptoms, not causes

40:11 - Timing, crowd psychology, and surviving being early on a short

47:08 - Why short selling is dangerous for individuals and crowded trades fail

52:44 - Markets today vs the dot-com era, passive flows, and portfolio construction

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI388: Peak Bubble? Why Markets Feel Different in 2026 ft. Mark Rzepczynski & Alan Dunne

Sat, 21 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Today Alan and Mark step back from the noise to examine a market environment that feels subtly but meaningfully different. From AI euphoria giving way to harder questions, to gold’s steady rise and a surprising divergence between US and emerging market inflation, the conversation centers on rotation, uncertainty, and shifting assumptions about safety. They explore whether Treasuries still anchor portfolios the way they once did, how fiscal pressures could reshape monetary policy, and why regime thinking matters for systematic investors. Beneath it all is a reminder that correlations change, narratives evolve, and adaptability remains the most durable edge in uncertain markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Introduction & market check-in

02:52 – February performance: CTAs, trend following & commodities

04:53 – Peak bubble? AI, metals & speculative excess

07:10 – Gold demand, central banks & safe-haven flows

10:40 – The AI narrative shift & tech repricing

13:22 – Global rotation: US vs Europe & emerging markets

15:22 – EM inflation now lower than US — why it matters

21:48 – Why macro still matters (regime thinking vs stock picking)

31:49 – Fiscal vs monetary dominance explained

41:59 – $700B in Treasury issuance — scale of the debt machine

44:51 – Inflation, asset bubbles & fiscal theory

56:45 – Machine learning, regime shifts & why trend following survives

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM97: Why Isn’t Anything Breaking? ft. Steen Jakobsen

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

The global order is shifting in plain sight. In this Global Macro conversation, Steen Jakobsen, inventor of the Outrages Predictions, joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Alan Dunne to examine the slow grind reshaping productivity, debt, currencies, and political stability. From dollar regime risk to state capitalism, from market concentration to commodity repricing, the discussion moves beyond headlines to structural fault lines. Is gold signaling debasement? Can the U.S. sustain its debt path? Does AI lift productivity or hollow it out? Rather than predict collapse, Jakobsen outlines a drawn-out transition where capital reallocates, volatility hides beneath the surface, and political systems are tested long before markets finally react.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Steen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:38 - Introducing Steen Jakobsen

03:45 - From trading floors to outrageous predictions

06:32 - Dollar hedging and regime shift signals

08:06 - Davos as a macro catalyst

12:11 - The K shaped U.S. economy

14:50 - State capitalism and fiscal dominance

17:30 - What could invalidate the bearish dollar view

21:37 - Fed independence and policy credibility

24:49 - AI productivity or structural disinflation

27:56 - The modern Soviet analogy

31:21 - Democracy, debt and slow breakdown

33:18 - What could finally trigger market stress

37:08 - Commodities and tangible asset repricing

47:02 - Gold as a debasement signal

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI387: The Cost-Benefit of Being Trendy ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Today, we examine a year that looked chaotic but felt familiar to trend followers. Gold surged, equities rotated globally, and non-US markets quietly gained momentum. Yet beneath strong returns lies a deeper debate about model design, short versus long horizon signals, and whether innovation in liquid alternatives serves investors or sales desks. From AI disruption to product engineering and allocator behavior, this episode explores where systematic strategies truly create value and where structural incentives distort outcomes. In a changing macro regime, clarity of purpose may matter more than ever.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introducing the Systematic Investor series

01:17 - AI disruption and systematic investing

06:52 - The shifting perception of US risk

09:21 - Winter Olympics and market metaphors

12:59 - Hedge funds versus private equity

19:23 - 2025 review and the importance of risk allocation

22:17 - Why CTAs did not fully capture gold

29:48 - Short term versus long term trend models

35:27 - Letting risk run versus investor palatability

44:43 - The problem with liquid alternatives

51:21 - Product design versus fiduciary duty

59:06 - QIS, innovation and investor sophistication

01:04:41 - Model risk and the myth of risk premia

01:10:51 - Hopes for a trending year ahead

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM96: The End of the Hedge: When Bonds Stop Protecting Portfolios

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

A familiar portfolio map is being redrawn. Ian Harnett traces the regime shift from disinflation and reliable bond hedges to a world where inflation pressures linger, supply chains shorten, and capital becomes a policy tool. The conversation moves from China’s exported deflation to Europe’s structural constraints, then into America’s strategy of attracting investment with tariff leverage. Beneath it all sits a political question: what happens if the governing coalition fractures ahead of the midterms. Harnett argues that is the moment the dollar turns from anchor to risk.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Ian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - The gray swan: political fracture and the point to sell the dollar

00:37 - Show intro and risk disclaimer

01:33 - Setting the frame: global macro, geopolitics, and regime change

04:34 - The new regime: inflation risk and the stock-bond relationship breaking

06:39 - Structural inflation drivers: deglobalization, trade weaponization, China’s deflation export

09:14 - Capital as a battleground: surcharges, controls, and Europe’s capital markets problem

12:02 - Europe’s catalyst problem: why it may take a crisis to build a true safe asset

14:44 - America’s playbook: inbound capital, tariff bargaining, and “neo-royalism”

18:32 - Trump-era economic ideology: the coalition, “333,” and running the economy hot

23:06 - The Fed under Warsh: rates, QT, balance sheet politics, and liquidity consequences

28:21 - Portfolio reality: slow rotation, hidden tech exposure, and where diversification breaks

41:22 - Gold, reserves, and the end of inflation targeting as a defining shift

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI386: When Position Sizing Saves You ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Rob Carver to unpack one of the most volatile weeks seen in commodity markets in years. The conversation centers on silver’s sharp rise and sudden collapse, using it as a case study in volatility targeting, liquidity risk, and disciplined position sizing. From Freaky Friday to broader dislocations across assets, they examine why systematic risk management matters when markets move faster than narratives. The discussion expands into diversification, correlation assumptions, alternative markets, and new research on trend portfolio construction, offering a grounded reminder that survival often matters more than precision.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

03:56 - Freaky Friday in precious metals

04:29 - How Rob trades silver in a volatility adjusted framework

10:25 - When volatility forces position reduction

12:38 - Liquidity myths in hot commodity markets

16:25 - Risk management lessons from silver’s collapse

22:28 - Dislocations across assets beyond metals

24:54 - Fed chair speculation and muted market reactions

31:33 - Discretionary versus systematic decision making

34:03 - Trend barometer and market breadth update

37:34 - Estimating portfolio correlation from PnL

41:18 - Correlation versus volatility predictability

45:13 - MAN Group paper on market selection

58:36 - What investors really want from trend following

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: SI386 - A Trend Following Deep Dive:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO09: Playing the Players in a Narrative Market ft. Ben Hunt

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan sits down with Ben Hunt, founder of Epsilon Theory, to explore how narratives shape markets, politics, and decision making itself. Drawing on decades of experience across academia, hedge funds, and applied AI, Ben explains why stories, not data, increasingly drive outcomes in modern markets. The conversation spans unstructured data, inference, common knowledge, and the mechanics of narrative momentum. Together, they examine consumer expectations, inflation silence, geopolitical signaling, and the slow shift away from US dominance. What emerges is a framework for understanding markets as reflexive systems, where perception often matters more than reality.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to U Got Options and the trading floor setting

02:18 - Ben Hunt’s background and Epsilon Theory origins

04:11 - Markets as the ultimate multiplayer game

06:15 - Inference, unstructured data, and narrative analysis

08:18 - Why sentiment and word counts miss the real signal

11:16 - Mapping meaning and truthy stories

15:00 - LLMs as operating systems, not oracles

18:01 - Giving money back and when models stop working

21:16 - Applying narrative tools beyond markets

24:10 - Consumer weakness versus bullish expectations

30:43 - Inflation, recession, and why markets do not care

33:29 - Dormant stories and volatility discovery

34:26 - The sell America narrative and capital flows

40:05 - Common knowledge and reflexivity

45:44 - Regime change, multipolarity, and narrative dominance

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI385: When Volatility Becomes the Signal ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 31 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Katy Kaminski joins us to assess the early signals shaping markets in 2026. The conversation explores the resurgence of commodity trends, the role of volatility estimation, and why diversification across markets and speeds matters more than ever. Drawing on new research, they examine dispersion within the CTA universe, the limits of replication, and how volatility targeting quietly determines outcomes. From precious metals to currencies, from crisis alpha to geopolitical risk, this episode offers a grounded look at why trend following thrives during disruption and why regime change remains its natural habitat.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:39 - Weather disruptions and market perspective

02:31 - Precious metals and extreme commodity moves

04:28 - Gold, central banks, and monetary regime shifts

07:43 - Replication versus full CTA diversification

09:47 - Liquidity differences across metals

12:03 - Metals leading trend performance in 2026

15:01 - Multi-sector trends and diversification benefits

20:13 - Media attention and the return of trend following

23:29 - Research insights on speed and dispersion

31:44 - Trend speed and timing tradeoffs

40:59 - Market concentration and narrow universes

43:19 - Volatility estimation as a hidden driver

50:41 - Crisis alpha and regime change

59:53 - Geopolitical risk and future research themes

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM95: When Consensus Gets the Cycle Wrong ft. Dario Perkins

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alan Dunne is joined by Dario Perkins to examine why the global macro consensus may be fundamentally misreading the current cycle. The conversation moves from US fiscal stimulus and Federal Reserve credibility to the limits of the K-shaped economy narrative. Perkins challenges prevailing assumptions around AI-driven productivity, labor market weakness, and falling inflation, arguing that policy choices are pushing economies toward overheating rather than stagnation. The discussion extends to bond markets, term premia, Japan’s normalization, Europe’s fiscal pivot, and China’s rebalancing dilemma. What emerges is a picture of renewed growth, rising risks, and a cycle whose ending is now becoming visible.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Dario on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and context

02:25 - Global uncertainty and growth expectations

05:00 - The K-shaped economy under scrutiny

08:12 - Fiscal stimulus, tariffs, and timing effects

11:07 - Fed independence and political pressure

17:06 - The race to appoint the next Fed chair

26:35 - Productivity data and the AI narrative

35:51 - Labor market stall speed debate

39:56 - Bond markets, term premia, and inflation risk

46:03 - Japan’s normalization and demographic myths

49:46 - Europe’s fiscal pivot and growth outlook

53:28 - Defense spending as an industrial catalyst

58:13 - China’s rebalancing challenge

01:00:29 - Optimism, overheating, and how the cycle may end

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI384: Building an Inflation-Proof Portfolio ft. Yoav Git

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Niels hosts Yoav Git to explore inflation risk, bond fragility, and the changing role of trend following in a world defined by supply shocks and declining trust. Drawing on recent research and market behavior, the conversation examines why traditional bond allocations struggle during inflationary regimes and how commodity trend strategies may offer structural resilience. The discussion spans geopolitics, deglobalization, energy markets, fixed income autocorrelation, and the limits of forecasting macro outcomes. Rather than predicting inflation’s path, the episode focuses on portfolio construction that can endure multiple regimes. What emerges is a disciplined argument for robustness over precision in an increasingly unstable global system.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and series context

01:08 - Inflation back on the radar

02:38 - Recent podcast influences and inflation narratives

06:56 - Geopolitics, trust, and market fragmentation

08:52 - Commodities, volatility, and supply driven moves

10:48 - Trend performance and early 2026 conditions

11:30 - Fixed income, FX, and emerging market trends

17:26 - The all weather portfolio problem

18:18 - Bonds, inflation regimes, and correlation breakdowns

22:39 - Commodity trend as a defensive building block

27:01 - Are markets signaling higher inflation ahead

30:04 - What commodity trend really means

33:35 - Institutional resistance to commodities

43:51 - Allocation stability versus macro forecasting

45:23 - Fixed income trends, carry, and autocorrelation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL45: Where Markets Reveal Human Error ft. Alex Imas

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Today we discuss one of the most popular and influential economic books of the last few decades - The Winner’s Curse. Originally published in 1994, a new version has just been released and we are joined by co-author Alex Imas who wrote the new edition alongside Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler. When are we likely to spend a windfall and when are we likely to save it? When is it most dangerous to bid for business against competitors? And are ‘arbitrage’ opportunities in markets really a free lunch?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Alex on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and framing the law of one price

01:42 - Introducing the Ideas Lab series and Alex Imas

03:44 - From pre med to behavioral economics

08:15 - Mental accounting and how people really treat money

10:45 - Housing wealth, illiquidity, and self control

15:39 - Savings behavior, capital gains, and inequality

17:11 - Attention, salience, and why nudges work or fail

22:07 - Nudges versus incentives and policy confusion

25:18 - The winner’s curse and common value auctions

30:01 - Auctions, IPOs, and competitive overbidding

33:44 - The law of one price and market mispricing

36:50 - Limits to arbitrage and hidden risks

39:32 - Why mispricing persists even without confusion

43:26 - Why behavioral economics stays outside textbooks

46:53 - What makes decisions difficult and why it matters

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI383: When Signals Matter More Than Stories ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas to examine how narratives, signals, and structural design are reshaping trend following at the start of 2026. The conversation moves from investor storytelling and information digestion to a sober review of what truly drove dispersion in 2025. We explore why speed and universe choice mattered more than expected, why recent outcomes may be misleading, and why reacting to performance is often a mistake. The discussion then turns technical, unpacking new academic research on nonlinear momentum, signal construction, and the deeper mechanics behind trend following’s defensive behavior during stress. The episode closes with a reminder that discipline, not prediction, remains the strategy’s core advantage.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and welcome

01:05 - A disrupted start to 2026

03:10 - Narratives, information, and price formation

07:06 - Why stories often fail to move markets

09:31 - Recurring themes and market attention

10:59 - Strong early conditions for trend following

12:01 - Dispersion across strategies in 2025

15:06 - Familiar patterns in an unfamiliar year

18:42 - Speed versus universe in trend design

23:17 - Why recent outperformance can mislead

31:08 - Institutional views on trend following

40:21 - Nonlinear time series momentum research

50:30 - Autonomy of trend and crisis behavior

56:35 - What theory explains about trend robustness

59:00 - Closing thoughts and next episode

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM94: When Capitalism Reboots and Crashes Again ft. Mark Blyth

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

As the long era of neoliberal certainty frays, Mark Blyth argues that we are drifting back toward a 19th century world of rival blocs, imperial habits and dangerous illusions. In this conversation, he traces how repeated “software crashes” of capitalism produced inflation, austerity, populism and now a return to industrial policy and great power confrontation. He connects deficits, demographics, migration, and housing with the lived reality of stagnant wages and rising prices. Along the way, he questions central bank mythology, challenges deficit obsession, and asks whether politics can adapt before events force a far harsher reset.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Cold open and warning on a return to 19th century style imperialism

00:23 - Niels and Alan introduce Mark Blyth and set the macro context

02:24 - From Scottish childhood to monetarism and the politics of macro ideas

08:33 - Capitalism as hardware and software and the recurring crashes of each regime

15:32 - The slow death of neoliberalism and the rise of populist reactions

18:57 - Deficits, austerity, bond vigilantes and why the house is on fire anyway

23:49 - Affordability, grocery prices, housing and the disconnect in elite dashboards

29:02 - Generational conflict, asset concentration and the missing left response

35:42 - Aging, health care, migration and the politics of who does the caring

40:43 - Inflation myths, central bank limits and lessons from recent shocks

45:13 - Britain’s broken growth model, deindustrialization and the London problem

48:01 - Industrial policy, defence, housing and what a real project state would do

53:14 - Trump’s hemispheric vision, hydrocarbons, and a world of regional satrapies

59:03 - Dollar power, cheaper currency strategy and fragile growth built on tech valuations

01:02:33 - Long term outlook, risks, and the books that still explain the mess we are in

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI382: The End of Globalization, the Rise of Trends ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

The new year opens with a shift hiding in plain sight. As globalization recedes and the world fractures into spheres of influence, Rich argues this isn’t just a political story - it’s a structural shift that favors trend following. In this episode, he challenges the illusion of control baked into most trading systems: why backtests offer comfort, not readiness; why precision breeds fragility; and why the future isn’t something to predict, but something being built in real time. This is a conversation about trading with humility, designing for persistence, and letting go of the need to know. The signal is now.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and the start of 2026

03:21 - A fragmented global order and what it means for trend following

08:55 - Why coordination fades and imbalances persist

12:41 - Early market signals and unusual positioning

14:34 - 2025 in review, concentration and recovery

17:36 - Familiar pain and familiar payoffs in trend following

23:00 - Timeframes, diversification, and ensemble thinking

28:37 - Brakes and acceleration, trading the now

40:58 - The future as unfinished, not hidden

49:54 - Prediction versus participation

53:53 - Optimization, comfort, and hidden fragility

01:02:49 - Predetermined response and process control

01:05:30 - Closing reflections and looking ahead

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM93: The Calm Before a Systemic Reckoning ft. William White

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 07:00:00 +0100

William White returns to assess a world edging closer to systemic stress. Drawing on decades advising central banks, he describes a macro regime defined not by temporary shocks, but by a deep reversal of the forces that once kept inflation low and debt manageable. From de-globalization and demographic decline to energy constraints and fragile supply chains, the conversation traces how rising costs collide with record public and private leverage. White warns that policy makers are trapped between inflationary pressures and debt sustainability, with no clean exit in sight. The discussion closes on AI, currency fragmentation, and the uncomfortable possibility that today’s stability masks a far more dangerous future.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow William on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why unchecked booms become more dangerous over time

01:37 - Setting the stage for a new global macro regime

03:53 - From disinflation to persistent inflation pressure

07:10 - Supply side forces reversing after decades of support

12:07 - Debt accumulation and unintended policy consequences

13:03 - Why higher rates did not trigger an immediate crisis

18:53 - Debt dynamics and the problem of sustainability

19:57 - Tipping points and the psychology of market breaks

26:40 - What happens when trust in central banks erodes

35:51 - AI optimism and the risk of large scale malinvestment

39:44 - Lessons from financial history and false starts

41:08 - Why economic models failed to see this coming

48:32 - The dollar, fragmentation, and global currency shifts

57:56 - Europe’s opportunity and its unresolved risks

01:03:24 - Complexity, politics, and why forecasting breaks down

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI381: Process Over Pain: Trend Following in an Unforgiving Market (Group Conversation Part 2)

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 06:00:00 +0100

In part two of our year-end roundtable, the Systematic Investor team goes beyond performance to ask harder questions about the path forward. Are today’s drawdowns a signal of structural change? - or just the cost of staying disciplined in a low-volatility regime? As allocators repackage old ideas under new acronyms and model drift tempts even seasoned managers, the conversation turns to what still holds. From AI and capital efficiency to the quiet value of doing less, this is about defending process when the payoff isn’t obvious - and knowing what not to change when pressure mounts. We close off with our 2026 Outrages Predictions... don't miss them!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and recap of the year end roundtable format

02:05 - Introducing AI in systematic investing and total portfolio approaches

04:00 - Will TPA meaningfully increase allocations to CTAs or just rebrand 60/40

06:30 - Practical uses of AI in research, coding and client communication

08:50 - Process stability in changing regimes and the temptation to “fix” models after pain

12:00 - When, if ever, model changes are justified versus pure overfitting

16:00 - What really causes CTA drawdowns and why “nothing happening” is so costly

20:00 - Communicating long and shallow drawdowns to committees that want simple villains

24:00 - High volatility and leveraged trend products for the retail and ETF audience

28:00 - Capital efficiency, portable alpha and how higher rates change the game

32:00 - Is dispersion in CTAs healthy diversification or a barrier to broader adoption

36:30 - Outrageous predictions for 2026 in rates, equities, vol and trend following

41:00 - Final reflections, investor takeaways and invitation for listener questions

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL44: From AI Hype to Transformative AGI ft. Aubrie Pagano

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0100

In this Ideas Lab episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with venture capitalist and former founder Aubrie Pagano about what stands between today’s AI hype and a truly transformative AGI economy. Rather than treating AI as destiny, Aubrie maps the frictions that hold it back: hard power limits, fragile industrial data, and agents that still cannot coordinate with humans or each other. She explains why we may be a full capital cycle or two away from real AGI and why that delay is precisely where the best opportunities lie. The conversation then widens into the “Aquarius Economy,” a possible future in which human agency, not algorithms, becomes the scarcest and most valuable asset.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Aubrie on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Why agent coordination is still clunky and unreliable

00:38 - Intro to Top Traders Unplugged and performance risk framing

01:34 - Kevin sets up the Ideas Lab and today’s focus on AGI

02:59 - Aubrie’s background as founder, researcher and VC shaping her lens

06:04 - Why she wrote about AGI and the Aquarius Economy

07:21 - AGI as the last cycle built on labor scarcity

10:41 - The blockers framework and why AGI may be a cycle or two away

12:58 - Blocker 1: energy constraints and the race for firm power

15:17 - Where investment opportunities emerge in power and grid resilience

17:43 - Blocker 2: foundational industry data gaps and Moravec’s paradox

22:00 - Skilled trades as a bottleneck and a long term opportunity

24:34 - Blocker 3: agent to human coordination and walled gardens

29:04 - Early agent marketplaces and trust mechanisms

34:41 - The Aquarius Economy as a framework for future societal structure

42:09 - Outlier groups, human agency and implications for investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI380: Dispersion Is the Story This Year (Group Conversation Part 1)

Sat, 27 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Niels is joined by all 9 amazing co-hosts, to discuss a year that refused to behave. In part one of the annual "roundtable", Niels and the group map why 2025 produced such striking dispersion across trend followers. They revisit the Liberation Day shock and the uncomfortable truth it exposed: results often came down to unglamorous choices like market selection, time horizon, and how quickly risk is resized after clustered volatility and sharp reversals. The conversation then widens to a structural theme: the rapid growth of strategies investors hope will sit outside stocks and bonds, from managed futures and multi strats to structured products, gold, and crypto, plus the liquidity, reflexivity, and selection challenges that follow when everyone reaches for the same diversifier.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

02:24 - Setting the agenda for the year-end group discussion

06:04 - Return dispersion and the shock around Liberation Day

10:41 - Market selection versus trend speed as performance drivers

15:17 - Volatility adjustment and why mid-speed models struggled

21:11 - The rapid growth of non correlated assets

26:40 - Liquidity limits and reflexive effects of large inflows

31:23 - Is dispersion healthy or a hurdle for allocators

37:17 - Investor behavior versus strategy outcomes

42:56 - Are model design choices ever truly obvious

46:22 - Objectives, factor exposure, and what investors really buy

50:49 - Dispersion as differentiation or classification problem

57:07 - Evaluating managers in a world of randomness

01:02:02 - How much data is enough to judge performance

01:11:05 - Closing remarks and preview of part two

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI20: Why Commodities Refuse to Trend Forever ft. Doug King

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Moritz Siebert speaks with Doug King about what it really means to trade commodities through cycles, distortions, and stress. Drawing on decades at Cargill and more than twenty years running a commodities hedge fund, Doug explains why innovation keeps scarcity narratives in check, why commodities resist buy and hold logic, and how real edge comes from cash markets rather than futures screens. He reflects on defining trades in oil, nickel, and agriculture, the limits of volatility targeting, and the discipline required to survive violent squeezes. The result is a grounded account of conviction, risk control, and why commodities reward patience more than prediction.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Doug on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks and introduction to Top Traders Unplugged

01:24 - Introducing Doug King and his background

04:49 - From Cargill to hedge funds and the pull of commodities

07:05 - Why the fund is purely discretionary and fundamentals driven

09:50 - Team size, selectivity, and waiting for the right trades

10:45 - Why commodities are cyclical and innovation breaks scarcity

13:46 - Electrification and where long term excitement may lie

15:37 - Defining edge in commodities trading

18:12 - Physical delivery, convergence, and real market signals

20:23 - Concentration, themes, and risk limits

22:34 - Risk budgets, drawdowns, and volatility control

26:35 - Margin stress, squeezes, and market dysfunction

30:43 - Defining trades in oil and nickel

35:54 - Linking physical trading to hedge fund insight

43:00 - Discipline, noise, and surviving as a commodity trader

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI379: The Illusion of Safety in a Fully Invested Market ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 20 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Niels and Cem reflect on a year marked by concentration, confidence, and growing structural fragility beneath calm markets. They examine extreme positioning, record low cash levels, and the quiet dominance of reflexive flows over fundamentals. Cem challenges common readings of volatility, explains where real fear hides in options markets, and outlines why tail exposure becomes critical late in cycles. The discussion broadens into portfolio construction, questioning the legacy of 60/40 investing and the illusion of diversification built during falling-rate decades. Grounded in history, market structure, and political cycles, this conversation offers a disciplined framework for navigating regimes where leverage, policy, and inequality quietly redefine risk.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:49 - Geopolitical tensions beneath the surface of markets

02:07 - Extreme bullish sentiment and record low cash levels

04:12 - Margin use, positioning, and why this setup is fragile

06:07 - Why the VIX fails as a true fear indicator

11:48 - Buffett’s concentration and risk management through quality

16:27 - Leverage, Sharpe ratios, and misunderstood diversification

21:02 - Trend following performance and late year positioning

23:48 - Positioning, reflexivity, and market microstructure

28:25 - Volatility traps and convexity before stress events

31:06 - Asymmetric opportunities in gold, FX, and bond volatility

37:17 - Populism, inequality, and long cycle market behavior

45:31 - Why 60/40 is a product of a falling rate era

54:47 - Key lessons from 2025 and structural market shifts

01:07:32 - Political cycles, midterms, and forward looking risks

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM92: Politics in an Age of Hard Borders and Rising Hegemons ft. Gary Gerstle

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0100

In this conversation, the veneer of political continuity is stripped back to reveal a world drifting toward harder borders, sharper identities and a reshaping of power once thought unthinkable. Gary Gerstle traces the erosion of the neoliberal order and the rise of a political logic that places national strength above universal norms. He examines how affordability stress, authoritarian impulses and fragmented parties are redrawing economic life and democratic expectations. The discussion widens into a global map of competing hegemons and the uneasy choices facing Europe and the United States. What emerges is a portrait of a century unsettled, yet not without agency.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow Gary on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening remarks on a shifting world and national security visions

00:44 - Introduction to Top Traders Unplugged and context for the discussion

01:40 - Framing the global macro environment and the need for deeper perspectives

02:24 - Introducing Gary Gerstle and his work on political and economic orders

04:00 - Defining the end of the neoliberal era and what has replaced it

07:02 - The tension between authoritarian forces and liberal democratic hopes

08:17 - Democracy under strain and the implications of Trump’s second term

10:06 - Shock, discipline and the early strategic force of Trump 2.0

14:27 - The economic agenda redefining tariffs, reshoring and political constituencies

17:17 - Manufacturing limits, automation and long term structural realities

21:11 - Tariffs, tax politics and the competing factions within the Republican Party

21:50 - Deregulation, AI, Silicon Valley realignment and state influence

26:34 - The affordability crisis and political expectations around prices

31:23 - Prospects for Democrats in 2026 and shifting electoral dynamics

59:32 - A global lens on rising nationalism, new hegemons and the future of the EU

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI378: When Prices Stop Making Sense ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 10:00:00 +0100

This episode examines markets through the lens of uncertainty rather than prediction. As the Federal Reserve delivers a rate cut amid dissent and conflicting signals, Alan and Mark explore what it means for systematic investors navigating noisy data, fragile liquidity and shifting regimes. The conversation moves from Fed credibility and term premia to bubbles, leverage and the limits of valuation in an environment shaped by narratives as much as fundamentals. Along the way, they return to a core question at the heart of systematic investing: when uncertainty rises and explanations multiply, should prices remain the final arbiter of risk, signal and portfolio design?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction to the Systematic Investor series

00:23 - Market context and recent CTA performance

02:41 - Initial reactions to the Fed decision and rate cut

03:12 - A messy Fed and the problem of dissenting signals

06:48 - Inflation, growth projections and policy uncertainty

08:31 - Signal versus noise in systematic trading models

11:22 - Employment data revisions and confidence in fundamentals

13:10 - Bond valuation, term premia and the question of safe assets

16:30 - Fiscal dominance, inflation risk and portfolio fragility

19:29 - Prices versus value and the limits of interpretation

22:47 - Narratives, reflexivity and momentum in markets

28:07 - Bubble dynamics, leverage and wealth effects

36:51 - Credit markets, AI investment and systemic risk

41:07 - Momentum, trend following and persistent market behavior

54:36 - Total portfolio approach and adaptive asset allocation

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU151: What Comes After 60/40? Systematic Thinking, BlackRock Style ft. Jeff Rosenberg

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Niels and Alan sit down with BlackRock’s Jeff Rosenberg to examine how the post Covid shift from too little to too much inflation is reshaping portfolios. Jeff explains why bond and equity correlations have changed, why fixed income is drifting back toward income rather than pure diversification, and how fiscal pressure and soft financial repression may influence rates. They explore what systematic really means at BlackRock, from trend ETFs and defensive alpha to market breadth and execution. The conversation ends with the rise of liquid alternatives, whole portfolio thinking and growing equity concentration risk.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jeff on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

00:00 - Introduction, Jeff’s role at BlackRock Systematic and setting the agenda

04:09 - From too little to too much inflation and the end of divine coincidence

09:32 - Wage dynamics, “prices are too high” and persistent, not resurgent, inflation

14:48 - Bond equity correlation, the changing role of fixed income and income versus diversification

19:55 - Fiscal dominance, debt loads and the risk of soft financial repression

25:21 - What “systematic” means at BlackRock across beta, factors and pure alpha

30:44 - Trend as a systematic return stream and why BlackRock entered the ETF trend space

35:58 - Breadth, capacity and why market selection matters more than cocoa

41:12 - Defensive alpha explained using a credit lens on equities and crisis behaviour

46:27 - Execution, implementation alpha and using BlackRock’s liquidity river

51:39 - Constraints of wrappers, leverage limits and designing strategies for ETFs

56:54 - Growth of liquid alternatives, 50 30 20 and replacing the old 60 40 mindset

01:02:10 - Equity concentration, big tech, AI and the need for uncorrelated return streams

01:07:32 - Whole portfolio thinking, total portfolio approach and final takeaways

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI377: What's New in SG Indices in 2026? + The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 06 Dec 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Niels and Alan explore how a fragile macro regime reshapes systematic investing, from a politicised Fed succession to widening cracks in a debt-laden, equity-dependent economy. A shifting bond landscape, rising capital demands from AI and renewed tariff risks challenge the old 60/40 orthodoxy. Listener questions on US policy shocks and the Yen carry trade open a deeper look at when trend helps and when it hurts. The episode culminates in a world exclusive of SocGen's 2026 index changes and the first public reveal of Alan’s new paper: The Regime-Adaptive Portfolio, for genuinely resilient, opportunity-aware global wealth compounding intelligently, prudently over the decade ahead.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Voiceover and introduction to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Niels and Alan open, what is on their radar this week

01:27 - Fed succession as a political risk factor and betting markets

03:33 - Crypto moves, Vanguard’s platform shift and MicroStrategy index pressure

05:53 - Listener questions: can constant US policy shocks break trend?

06:33 - Trouble for trend or just another regime to endure and adapt to

08:55 - Short-term CTAs, Liberation Day and when speed becomes a handicap

11:11 - How CTAs are positioned for a yen carry unwind and JGB nuances

12:16 - November trend update, five straight positive months and short-term pain

13:35 - World exclusive: new SocGen CTA and Trend index line-ups and cutoffs

21:02 - Tariffs, AI capex, rising long rates and the changing bond landscape

29:28 - Is this really a 1990s-style productivity boom or something riskier?

33:52 - Why traditional versus alternative is the wrong lens for portfolios

38:30 - Inside Alan’s Adaptive Portfolio and the 40/40/20 risk framework

47:48 - Behavioural traps and the chronic under-allocation to true diversifiers

53:34 - Tail risks, fiscal dominance and what most portfolios are missing

56:59 - Adaptive versus 60/40: drawdowns, compounding and implications for retirees

01:01:42 - Implementation, return stacking and Morningstar’s leverage label problem

01:05:54 - Closing reflections, next week’s episode and final risk reminders

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO32: AI Booms, Fiscal Strains and the New Macro Regime ft. Joe Little

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 10:00:00 +0100

Alan Dunne speaks with HSBC Asset Management’s Global Chief Strategist, Joe Little, about what happens when the old macro rules stop working. Joe traces the shift from a demand led, low inflation world to a supply constrained regime of sticky and spiky prices, where 2 percent becomes a floor rather than a target. He explains the “reverse bond conundrum,” rising term premia and the quiet return of fiscal dominance. The conversation explores AI as investment boom, not yet productivity cure, the maturing of emerging markets, the fate of the dollar and how to build truly multipolar portfolios.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening clip, long bonds misbehaving and the “reverse bond yield conundrum”

00:55 - Introduction and risk disclosure for Top Traders Unplugged listeners

01:50 - Joe’s path from economist to global chief strategist and house view author

05:16 - From post crisis disinflation to a supply constrained, sticky inflation regime

10:32 - Why 2 percent looks like a floor, tariffs, profits and delayed inflation effects

13:34 - 2026 baseline: muddle through growth, positive policy impulse and inflation nuance

16:42 - AI as capital expenditure boom, echoes of the 1990s and the missing productivity surge

20:40 - China and Asia: regionalisation, industrial policy and an exit from deflation

24:54 - Role reversal in 2025 and why future Asian performance must be earnings led

27:22 - Debt, deficits and fiscal dominance, from UK gilts to French OATs and US Treasuries

31:34 - Steeper curves and rising term premia, how the bond market can “murder” the cycle

32:26 - Rethinking 60/40, weaker bond diversification and the case for “diversifying diversifiers”

35:32 - Hedge funds, macro and why emerging markets may now be structurally less fragile

37:13 - Can EM really decouple, and what India versus China tells us about country effects

41:59 - Dollar overvaluation, policy preference for weakness and the fading of the dollar smile

47:27 - Fed succession, populism, and why 2 percent inflation will not feel like a ceiling

51:23 - Gold’s rise, stock bond correlation and the search for genuine risk mitigators

53:53 - Investor sentiment, nervous equilibrium and how institutions are repositioning risk

58:00 - Ten year return assumptions and constructing multipolar, all weather portfolios

01:02:04 - Book recommendations, learning macro and closing reflections

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI376: What They’re Only Now Starting to See ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 29 Nov 2025 06:45:00 +0100

In this week’s Systematic Investor episode, Niels and Andrew Beer explore how a broken 60/40 paradigm is forcing wealth managers into a new world of “other” diversifiers. Andrew reflects on the Goldman Sachs report about private wealth flows, the rise of liquid alts and why big houses are suddenly launching trend ETFs. The conversation dives into replication versus traditional CTAs, the true cost of complexity, and Simplify’s new index-based product built on Andrew’s strategy. Along the way they debate pods, Bitcoin, and Andrew’s evolving metaphor of managed futures as a cloudy, but occasionally crystal-clear, macro crystal ball.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro and Thanksgiving reflections, gratitude and mood after the holiday

01:14 - Goldman report: trillions from wealthy investors and a seismic shift away from 60/40

03:38 - Why bonds stopped diversifying and the growth of the “other” bucket in portfolios

05:44 - Liquid alts vs illiquid alts and the timing of big firms launching trend ETFs

08:25 - Odd Lots, pods and Dalio’s skepticism on multi-strats’ future

09:22 - Bitcoin’s volatile run and rumors of a manipulated pullback

10:59 - November performance: zigzags in trend indices and short-term traders’ struggles

12:55 - How DBMF positioned: concentration, short yen, euro pain and being contrarian post “Liberation Day”

16:05 - Are we still “replication”? Alternative data beta, tracking error and what’s really being delivered

18:16 - Targeting “space beta” plus cost savings: is complexity in CTAs adding or destroying value?

22:14 - Indexing the replication strategy and using swaps: Simplify’s new "low" headline fee ETF built on Andrew’s index

30:49 - The fee and cost debate: headline fees, trading costs, swaps and what investors should really ask

34:33 - Implementation costs, incentive fees and tax efficiency versus simple fee labels

45:08 - A better story for managed futures: from black box trend to “cloudy crystal ball”

51:22 - How trend taps local information: “someone knows something” and prices as detectors

58:03 - Takeaways from the Stockholm roundtable: short vs long term, exotic markets and heterogeneity

01:01:07 - Alpha-beta separation, core CTA beta vs high-conviction managers and where the space is heading

01:03:44 - Closing thoughts: civilized disagreement, common mission and why every portfolio needs this exposure

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL43: The Land Trap: How Property Shapes Power ft. Mike Bird

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

In today’s episode we talk about the world’s oldest, and still most important asset: land. Our guest is the Economist’s Wall Street Editor Mike Bird. Mike is the author of a newly released book The Land Trap: A New History of the World’s Oldest Asset. We discuss the properties that make land unique as an asset and why it serves as collateral for almost two-thirds of all bank loans, making it the backbone of the world’s money supply. Mike explains what the “land trap” means and why China is caught in its grip like no other country. We also discuss the one country in the world that seems to have escaped the trap and whether their lessons can be applied elsewhere.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mike on X and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and setup

00:00:49 - Disclaimer and show introduction

00:01:45 - The premise: land as humanity’s oldest asset

00:04:18 - Defining the “land trap” through Hong Kong’s model

00:09:01 - Three defining traits: scarcity, immovability, endurance

00:18:17 - Why technology can’t replace geography

00:23:29 - Land as collateral and the rise of mortgage finance

00:28:31 - Lazy banking and the limits of innovation

00:35:17 - Dead capital, human potential, and access to credit

00:39:37 - China’s land machine and the politics of stasis

00:46:37 - Evergrande, reallocation, and what “collapse” really means

00:52:28 - Singapore’s experiment: broad ownership, stable prices

00:58:17 - Can others follow Singapore’s path?

00:59:33 - Closing reflection

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI375: CTAs After the Walls Come Down ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 22 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver returns for a conversation that quietly questions the foundations. Is trend following an edge - or just a reward for holding discomfort others can’t? From the role of skew in shaping outcomes to the blind spots in most robustness frameworks, Rob and Niels takes you through the mechanics with uncommon clarity. Listener questions open up the deeper layers: when volatility targeting helps, when it hurts, and why Sharpe Ratios can mislead. They end with a shift that may matter more than it seems: CalPERS moving to a Total Portfolio Approach. Not just a new framework - potentially a new lane for CTAs.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro and welcome to the Systematic Investor Series

00:23 - Catching up with Rob and a cold, sunny UK

01:35 - Is trend following an edge or a risk premium?

03:38 - Overcomplicating edges and the Cliff Asness perspective

04:30 - Renaissance’s bad month and how even legends struggle

09:25 - Managed futures ETFs, performance narratives, and media framing

11:22 - AI, Nvidia and what an “AI bubble” might mean for trends

13:10 - Trend barometer, current positioning and where returns come from

18:35 - George’s question: robustness testing, overfitting and multiple testing

25:45 - How often to re-fit models and when to leave parameters alone

27:44 - Frederik’s question: intraday versus end of day for medium term trend

32:10 - Why trend following struggles on single assets and very fast timeframes

34:07 - Abraham’s question: what Rob would do differently after a decade live

41:05 - Carlo’s question: static vs dynamic sizing, skew and volatility targeting

46:07 - Rebalancing frequency, buffering, and asymmetric volatility risk

50:49 - Dario’s question: sentiment indicators, skew and what Rob actually uses

53:10 - Andreas’ question: ATR vs standard deviation and daily vs weekly data

56:29 - Stops, intraday execution and combining slow trend with fast mean reversion

59:27 - CalPERS adopts the total portfolio approach: what changes and why it matters

01:08:12 - Boxes, sleeves and why CTAs never fit neatly anywhere

01:11:55 - Could TPA be a game changer for trend following allocations?

01:14:19 - ChatGPT, consultants and the future of portfolio construction language

01:16:18 - Closing disclaimers and how to send in future questions

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO08: The Coming Hunger Games for Global Savings ft. David Dredge

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Recorded live from the Cboe RMC floor in Munich, Cem Karsan sits down with volatility veteran David Dredge for a deep exploration of what truly drives risk. From the crash of 1987 to today’s era of correlation, Dredge reframes volatility not as fear, but freedom. Through his F1 “brakes” analogy, he reveals why protection enables performance, and how convexity builds resilience in an uncertain world. Together, they trace the arc from structured-product flows to demographics, fiscal repression, and the coming global “Hunger Games” for savings. A masterclass in compounding through uncertainty.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01:29 – Cem introduces David Dredge live from Munich.

00:03:28 – Dredge recalls arriving in Asia before the 1987 crash.

00:05:06 – The F1 brakes analogy—why protection enables speed.

00:07:45 – The “preserve and enhance” portfolio that defied 65/35.

00:10:57 – Rethinking 60/40 and the illusion of diversification.

00:14:33 – Cem on $500 trillion of correlated assets.

00:17:22 – Why covered calls lose to convexity over time.

00:19:14 – Misreading 2022: correlation, not equities, was the risk.

00:21:20 – When diversification fails, only convexity endures.

00:27:13 – Value investing in volatility—buying what others suppress.

00:37:48 – Euro FX vol: the paradox of cheap risk.

00:44:07 – Demographics and the quiet mathematics of decline.

00:47:46 – The “Hunger Games” for global savings begins.

00:52:57 – Lessons from 1997: FX and gold vol as survival trades.

00:56:11 – The anti-fiat portfolio—Bitcoin, gold, and long vol.

01:01:13 – Closing reflection on resilience as freedom.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI374: When the Data Goes Dark: Trend Following, Turbulence & Total Portfolios ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 15 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

What happens when the data goes dark, yet markets barely flinch? In this episode, Niels and Katy unpack the month of October defined by missing economic releases, relentless equity strength and three extraordinary days of Liberation Day turbulence. They explore why price often tells the truest story, how total portfolio thinking could rewrite the role of trend, and why short term strategies faltered while precious metals surged. The conversation then shifts to the coming wave of alternatives in private wealth and the silent risk inside target date funds, asking how managed futures can reshape retirement outcomes when timing paths go wrong.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction and catching up from Boston

02:00 - Life without economic data and what markets really need

04:20 - Price as the only truth and the limits of official data

05:45 - CalPERS, total portfolio thinking and what it means for trend

08:20 - AI, data centers and the inflation story hiding in electricity

10:30 - Inflation regimes, unstable prices and why trend cares about change

12:40 - Year to date trend review across equities, metals, FX and bonds

15:10 - Why short term traders struggled in a headline driven year

20:00 - Picking “the best strategy” and why robustness matters more than Sharpe

24:10 - Parameters, speed of response and treating markets differently

26:20 - Liberation Day: three consecutive shock days and what CTAs learned

33:40 - Economic trend, price trend and the blurry line with global macro

39:00 - Crisis alpha, convexity and when fundamentals stop mattering

44:50 - The rise of alternatives and why “core” portfolios are changing

48:20 - How the industry can tap private wealth and model portfolios

52:00 - Trend in target retirement funds and the sequence of returns problem

56:40 - Looking ahead, volatility forecasting and next week’s guest

58:25 - Wrap up, disclosures and final reflections

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM91: Inside China’s Growth Dilemma ft. George Magnus

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 05:30:00 +0100

China’s ascent tells two stories. One of power, precision, and industrial brilliance - the other of imbalance, aging, and constraint. In this episode, Alan Dunne and George Magnus trace the hidden geometry of that divide. They explore how a nation that builds for the future struggles to sustain its present: an economy split between advanced manufacturing and fading momentum, between the Party’s control and the market’s gravity. From local debt and demographic drag to rare-earth diplomacy and the politics of currency, Magnus sketches China not as a riddle to be solved, but as a system nearing the limits of its own design.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Follow George on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 – Opening and disclaimer

02:23 – George Magnus on career path and China focus

06:56 – Data, distortions, and how to analyze China credibly

11:37 – Two-track reality: advanced industry vs. a strained macro base

16:56 – Why consumption rebalancing keeps failing

22:29 – Stock-market boosts vs. household wealth effects

25:45 – China’s “QE by other means”: credit, banks, LGFVs

27:40 – Who’s levered? Local governments and off–balance sheet debt

29:51 – Japan echoes and key differences

33:23 – Trade frictions, rare-earth leverage, and U.S.–China tactics

38:01 – Belt & Road 2.0: fewer loans, more influence

42:56 – Capital controls and the ceiling on RMB internationalization

49:00 – Hong Kong’s evolving financial role

50:54 – CCP control after the plenum; succession optics

53:47 – Taiwan scenarios and risk contours

55:51 – Plateau vs. precipice: what could still break

57:54 – Career advice for macro and China analysis

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI373: Why Trend Thrives When Inflation Returns ft. Yoav Git

Sat, 08 Nov 2025 13:00:00 +0100

What if markets move not by logic, but by pressure? In this conversation, Alan Dunne and Yoav Git trace the invisible currents behind price formation, namely how a single dollar of inflow can lift valuations fivefold, and why that distortion challenges everything the efficient market promised. From the slow mechanics of supply and demand to the moral hazards of policy and liquidity, the discussion follows money as it reshapes narrative. They revisit research that foresaw inflation’s return, and question why QIS indices so often fade in practice. Beneath it all lies a quiet question: what truly drives the modern market?

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:23 – Opening and agenda for the discussion

00:01:05 – Math education in the UK and XTX’s push to fund young talent

00:03:39 – Market performance recap for early November

00:04:49 – Reflections on volatility and fixed income trading conditions

00:05:13 – Introduction to the “Inelastic Markets Hypothesis”

00:05:53 – Supply, demand, and elasticity explained in market terms

00:10:30 – Instrumental variables and how economists measure elasticity

00:14:51 – The debate: if markets clear, how can flows move prices?

00:15:44 – Why equities are more inelastic than bonds

00:21:04 – Questioning the 5x effect and how flows follow prices

00:23:48 – Policy and moral hazard implications of inelastic markets

00:26:07 – How elasticity differences shape trend-following speeds

00:29:57 – Should all markets use the same trading models?

00:36:19 – “Best Strategies for Inflationary Times” revisited

00:38:30 – Why the paper predicted 2022 so accurately

00:42:03 – The nature of trend following: slow losses, fast wins

00:44:24 – Inflation mandates and the overlooked role of CTAs

00:48:33 – Why TIPS and real estate can fail as inflation hedges

00:50:05 – Examining “Quantifying Backtest Overfitting” in QIS

00:53:59 – The 60% haircut between backtests and live returns

00:56:00 – How CTAs add value beyond bank QIS products

01:00:40 – QIS as a low-cost, capital-efficient exposure

01:01:15 – Closing thoughts and next week’s preview

01:01:59 – Outro and disclaimer

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM90: The Quiet Repricing of Reality ft. Adam Rozencwajg & Cem Karsan

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles

08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes

13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets

20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system

27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation

34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk

41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”

49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle for supply

55:48 - Oil’s forgotten value and echoes of past energy cycles

01:00:19 - Gold, miners, and the new hierarchy of precious assets

01:07:23 - Helium, the next frontier, and closing reflections on a changing world

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI19 BONUS: Living With Ed Seykota ft. David Druz

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to part 2

02:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota

06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen

17:13 - The optimal bed size

21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota

24:42 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns

26:54 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota

31:58 - Living with Ed Seykota

34:16 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI372: QIS Unboxed: Rules, Wrappers, and Reality ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 01 Nov 2025 06:00:00 +0100

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick

01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone

02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025

04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds

06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback

07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts

08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion

10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones

11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside

14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats

18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge funds

21:30 - What QIS really provides: rules, access, and efficiency

28:05 - The four pillars of product design (research, clients, tech, markets)

30:20 - Why thousands of indices exist (customization, wrappers)

33:22 - Delta-1 vs. options on indices: when each makes sense

36:58 - Vol targeting trade-offs for optionality and recovery

38:55 - Built for scale, but with capacity discipline

42:00 - Innovating without data-mining traps

47:12 - Crowding: congestion, vol carry, and trend mechanics

56:35 - Wrap-up and what to expect next week

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI19: The Trader Who Never Spoke...Until Now ft. David Druz

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

SI371: Trends Don’t Form Randomly. They Form Reflexively ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 25 Oct 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series

00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich

00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk

00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules

00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following

00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens

00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust

00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends

00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade

00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions

00:35:48 – Volatility ≠ risk: compression warehouses latent tail risk

00:40:08 – Engineer robustness, don’t optimize to statistics

00:49:41 – From micro impulses to structure: feedback builds trends

00:50:06 – Patterns vs structure; outliers as phase transitions

00:55:00 – Ensemble design: behavioral (not correlational) diversification

01:03:05 – Survival first: closed-equity sizing in a non-ergodic world

01:05:43 – Niels’ counterpoints: dynamic sizing, flows, and “cutback” debate

01:12:20 – Rich: why he frames it as outlier hunting

01:16:30 – Wrap-up, programming notes, and disclaimer

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO07: The Illusion of Safety: How Markets Became the Economy ft. Keith DeCarlucci, Patrick Kazley & Hari Krishnan

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 06:30:00 +0100

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and introductions

01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI

03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades

14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies

21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity

32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations

39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers

44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility

56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts

01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimers

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI370: Sharpe Ratios, Tail Risks, and the Cost of Comfort ft. Nigol Koulajian & Alan Dunne

Sat, 18 Oct 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:32 - Introduction to our special guest

01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?

09:15 - Is it just a cycle?

19:46 - What is the end game?

23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity

31:45 - How trend following has changed over time

39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?

45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs

53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities

56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM89: When Credibility Becomes the Risk Premium ft. Maurice Obstfeld

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

SI369: Liquidity, Leverage, and the End of Safety ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 11 Oct 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Gold is ripping, but it’s not about inflation. It’s about trust - or the slow erosion of it. Mark Rzepczynski returns to map out the shifting terrain as central banks quietly step away from sovereign debt and build reserves in metal, not paper. Niels presses on what this says about safe assets, liquidity, and the narratives we’ve long taken for granted. They unpack the rise of short-term options, the distortive power of retail flow, and the fragility buried inside modern plumbing. And as trend followers chase edge in crowded markets, Mark offers a glimpse into what comes next: networks, feedback loops, and systems that learn - until they break.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:34 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:43 - Is this time different for gold?

14:13 - Just a gold story?

16:38 - Should we redefine the definition of safe assets?

19:45 - The Fed has to change

26:08 - An overbearing uncertainty

30:25 - Our thoughts on meme stocks

35:30 - Not every innovations are good

39:02 - How narratives impact how products are sold

46:21 - Industry performance update

49:39 - Alternative vs traditional assets

01:00:43 - Every CTA is a short term trader

01:05:59 - The power of seeing the connection between markets

01:14:32 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM88: Cycles of Promise and Pain: Argentina’s Unfinished Lesson ft. Nicolas Dujovne

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Argentina’s history is one of recurring promises and painful resets. Nicolas Dujovne has lived that cycle from the inside, serving as Finance Minister during a rare attempt at fiscal repair before markets and politics turned against it. Now, as CIO of Tenac Asset Management, he reflects with Alan Dunne on why economic reform so often falters, how short-term pain fuels long-term instability, and what it would take to finally break the trap. Beyond Argentina, the discussion widens to emerging markets at large - their hard-won stability, the new risks born of geopolitics and demographics, and the shifting fault lines of globalization.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

SI368: Valuation Has Left the Room ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

Sat, 04 Oct 2025 09:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to chart a market running on more than just momentum. Beneath the surface: a structural liquidity engine, political incentives aligned with asset reflation, and a surge in non-correlated flows reshaping risk itself. As institutions scramble to catch up and volatility begins to rise with price, Cem draws on lessons from the late 90s to explain why the real story is not about valuation - but positioning. From AI’s misunderstood impact to the growing role of options, gold, and crypto, this is a portrait of a regime defined not by fundamentals, but by reflex and constraint.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alan on X

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:00 - Industry performance update

03:07 - Are current valuations a sign of a bubble?

12:13 - The importance of reflexivity

18:59 - The move towards non correlation is upon us

22:55 - What is driving up asset prices?

26:34 - When will the supply/demand imbalance normalize?

31:56 - Reaching an uncontrollable situation

35:47 - What are markets showing us about options?

39:38 - Precious metals is the place to be

42:26 - Is AI actually the game changer that we all expect it to be?

52:07 - Will better technology = better performance?

56:03 - A timeline for possible risk dates

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL42: Redefining Sovereignty in a Borderless Financial System ft. Zoe Liu

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 07:00:00 +0100

China’s trade surplus with the US remains stubbornly large, but its appetite for Treasuries is fading. So where are the dollars going, and what does that say about the country’s evolving financial strategy? Kevin Coldiron welcomes back Dr. Zoe Liu for a nuanced look at how Beijing is managing external pressure, internal control, and the creeping disruption of dollar-backed stablecoins. Behind the headlines is a deeper story about surveillance, capital flight, and the boundaries of monetary sovereignty. As China builds shadow reserves and experiments with programmable money, the question isn’t just what it fears it’s what kind of system it’s trying to build instead.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Zoe on Twitter and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 - Introduction to Zoe Liu

04:15 - How U.S tariffs impact shipping costs and the deficit with China

17:27 - What is China actually doing with their earned dollars?

27:52 - Are FX entrusted loans reinforcing the dollar based trading system?

36:07 - What are stable coins and why are China worried about them?

42:31 - The second level of threat of stable coins

49:08 - How would a Hong Kong dollar backed stable coin look like?

54:37 - Are stable coins actually stable in Hong Kong or China?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI367: Portfolio Design in a Distorted World ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 27 Sep 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Equities are up more than 50% since the April lows, yet the world feels anything but stable. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Andrew Beer examine the widening disconnect between market behavior and the backdrop it’s unfolding against. From drone incursions over Denmark to political fragmentation and a rising tolerance for systemic risk, they explore why nothing seems to break - and what that complacency might be masking. Along the way, they unpack Bouchard’s inelastic market hypothesis, CalPERS’ pivot toward Total Portfolio thinking, and the structural trade-offs inside multi-strat hedge funds. It's a conversation about signals in the noise - and the quiet shifts that could reshape the landscape.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:38 - The tension between talents

11:08 - Is the popularity of certain alternative strategies just a sign of the times?

22:07 - Industry performance update

27:46 - Q1, Michael: Why shouldn't I sell Andrew's product when it's outperforming single managers and vise versa?

30:15 - The evolution of replication strategy performance

37:44 - The storytelling behind hedge fund losses

41:04 - Do all markets have the ability to trend?

48:57 - The rise of multi strategy hedge funds

57:47 - It shouldn't work but it does, so why?

01:04:27 - A reminder for Andrew's generous book offer

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO06: Democratizing the Asymmetric Trade ft. Vlad Tenev

Wed, 24 Sep 2025 15:00:00 +0100

Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood joins Cem Karsan at the Hood Summit in Las Vegas, for a timely conversation about the shifting edge in markets. From memories of hyperinflation in Bulgaria to unlocking tools once reserved for institutions, Vlad outlines how Robinhood is positioning retail for a different kind of market regime. Futures, short selling, 24-hour options, AI-driven trade simulation, and embedded social features aren’t just upgrades - they’re signals. With market structure evolving and a historic wealth transfer underway, this episode captures a platform staking its claim on the next generation of capital allocators - and the volatility they’ll inherit.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:27 - Introduction to Vlad Tenev

05:11 - Big announcements from Robinhood

09:15 - Tenev's favorite commodities

12:13 - Lets talk about options!

18:20 - How AI can benefit options trading

21:56 - Short selling is coming to Robinhood

25:44 - The path to making Robinhood more resilient

28:02 - The great transfer of wealth

31:17 - How Robinhood differentiates themselves from other platforms

33:35 - Creating a broader army

37:23 - What is Robinhood most excited for going forward?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI366: The Strategy Didn’t Fail. The Investors Did. ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 20 Sep 2025 07:30:00 +0100

Rob Carver is back from summer break for a conversation that moves between past and present through the lens of lived experience. Starting with the anniversary of Lehman’s collapse, Rob and Niels unpack why strong performance often coexists with poor investor outcomes - and how timing, not strategy, remains the silent killer. They question the recent push into trend by asset management giants, weigh whether CTA underperformance marks a structural shift or a familiar cycle, and examine what the data can and can’t tell us when conviction fades. If there’s a theme this week, it’s simple: knowing what works is not the same as using it well.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:14 - What has been on our radar recently?

12:09 - Industry performance update

19:23 - Q1, John: What are your recommendations for adapting a continuous forecast-based position sizing for a cash-only portfolio?

23:15 - Q2, Absolute: Is short/long symmetry optimal for a strategy in which the price of the traded instruments is measured in units (fiat currencies) that are inflated (devalued)?

30:19 - Q3, Lin: Got any ideas for trading a crypto portfolio?

32:04 - Why investors are losing money on 42% gain ETFs

39:50 - The difference between percentage return and cash return

43:24 - Debunking the persistent score card

46:19 - How the world has changed for CTAs

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO31: What If the Illiquidity Premium Was Never Real? ft. Richard Tomlinson

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Richard Tomlinson joins Alan Dunne for a conversation shaped by experience, not theory. As CIO of LPPI, Richard is responsible for £27 billion in pension assets - but what stands out here is the clarity with which he navigates complexity. From the fading utility of labels like “illiquidity premium” and “hedge fund” to the trade-offs between cost, alignment, and control, this episode is about building portfolios that work in the real world - not just in a model. They explore inflation’s structural drivers, the quiet rise of fiscal dominance, and why some of the industry’s most comfortable assumptions no longer hold. It’s not about being contrarian - it’s about being clear-eyed.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Richard Tomlinson

07:07 - What makes Tomlinson and LPPI stand out from their peers?

11:52 - Who are LPPI's clients?

13:26 - The investment philosophy behind LPPI's work

18:06 - How LPPI's allocators work together

19:05 - Getting the allocation right

21:29 - Are they worried about the decline of equities?

23:37 - Tomlinson perspective on global macro

26:55 - Public vs private markets

29:05 - Their approach to allocating domestically

31:15 - How their allocation is distributed

33:51 - Is there a place for multi strategies at LPPI?

36:01 - Balancing growth strategies with risk

39:13 - How much would they allocate to alternatives?

41:22 - Their framework for thinking about risk

43:59 - How they approach commodities in their strategy

45:39 - How much focus do they put on ESG?

48:15 - The challenges of high fees in the hedge fund space

50:36 - Is it best to keep managers in-house or external?

53:41 - How they create a strong team of managers

55:37 - The right way of evaluating success and performance

58:41 - Advice for others investors

01:00:19 - The structural themes and trends that are likely to continue

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI365: Design or Luck: Why Trend Following Results Diverge ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 13 Sep 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Katy Kaminski returns to explore why results in trend following rarely look alike, even when the rules sound the same. Using fresh research from Man Group and Quantica, she and Niels trace the fingerprints of design choices: the pace of signals, how portfolios tilt, whether to add carry, and the impact of alternative markets. Along the way they connect these differences to today’s landscape, from the Fed’s looming decision to Europe’s bond jitters, from gas and power’s outsized role in recent Alternative CTA returns to the risks of crowding. It’s a clear-eyed discussion about how systematic strategies evolve - and why dispersion matters.

Get Your FREE Copy of the latest Research Paper from DUNN Capital.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:12 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:44 - Industry performance update

12:01 - How different can managers really be in the trend following space?

22:30 - Is Andrew Beer onto something about the sharpe ratio of trend indices?

24:26 - Why Katy and Alex are obsessed with return dispersion

30:34 - What drives dispersion the most?

32:41 - Designing a trend following benchmark

35:46 - Quantifying turbulence in CTAs

39:46 - The importance of simplicity as a CTA

42:30 - Every asset is an opportunity for trend

47:41 - Do we actually have enough data to evaluate the performance of alternative markets?

52:34 - Potential papers for the future

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM87: Who Really Sets Policy Now? ft. Anna Wong

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist at Bloomberg, joins Alan Dunne with a clear-eyed assessment of where policy and politics are headed. As markets bet on cuts and the Fed talks balance, she sees a different risk: a slow-burning inflation that’s quietly taking hold. Anna breaks down why tariffs haven’t hit as expected, how AI is already reshaping the labor force, and what’s really driving service-sector price pressures. Beyond the data, the conversation turns to Fed culture, the limits of independence, and what a Trump-aligned central bank might mean in practice. Less about what’s forecast - more about what’s misunderstood.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Anna on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Anna Wong

03:57 - The current state of Fed

06:35 - A potential flare up in inflation

16:19 - Wong's read on the labour market

22:50 - Fed's inflation argument makes no sense

28:59 - The outlook of the housing market

31:15 - Is AI destroying the labour market?

34:20 - The future direction of the Fed and the potential candidates

40:10 - The Fed is losing its balance

48:43 - How increasing Trump representatives could impact the Fed

51:58 - How monetary policy will unfold going forward

54:43 - How we achieve a healthy level of debt and growth

58:47 - Trump wants a weak dollar

01:00:59 - Why Wong is optimistic about AI's impact on GDP growth

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI364: What makes an Alternative Investment Truly Valuable? ft. Moritz Seibert

Sat, 06 Sep 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What makes an alternative investment truly valuable? In this episode, Moritz Siebert joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation that moves past market moves and into the core design of systematic strategies. They explore what diversification really means, why manager size shapes more than just capacity, and how incentives - both fees and institutional expectations - quietly reshape the industry. From carbon markets and copper dislocations to volatility suppression and position sizing, this is an episode about alignment: between strategy and structure, manager and mandate, risk and resilience. At a time when most portfolios still rely on the familiar, this is a case for what’s missing.

And you can get your free copy of the recent paper from DUNN Capital here!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:34 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:26 - Industry performance update

13:20 - Building the perfect portfolio composition

17:18 - Insights on carbon markets

21:39 - Should we start to rethink how we approach markets?

28:54 - Removing complexities from a trend system

34:02 - The key aspects of designing a trend system

47:27 - More diversified = more risk?

49:00 - What is the most Valuable Alternative Investment?

57:50 - Is trend following losing the battle against hedge funds?

01:02:49 - Trend following fees are changing

01:10:14 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL41: They’re Not Just Reading You... They’re Rewriting You ft. Sandra Matz

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What if knowing you isn’t the end goal... but shaping you is? In this episode, Kevin Coldiron speaks with Columbia professor Sandra Matz about how algorithms trained on our clicks, searches, and faces don’t just predict our behavior - they influence it. They unpack how personalization narrows possibility, why convenience can come at the cost of resilience, and what happens when machines learn to mirror us better than we mirror each other. From the false promise of data consent to the quiet collapse of complexity, this is a conversation about power, psychology, and the systems quietly remaking the human experience.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Sandra on LinkedIn and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Introduction to Sandra Matz

08:22 - How data is a window into our psychology

12:13 - What is the "right" benchmark?

14:12 - How algorithms learn to understand who you are

19:11 - Do algorithms care about your feelings?

22:16 - The "basic bitch" effect

25:10 - Computers can learn your personality from a picture of your face

32:01 - How the power of algorithms can be used in a positive way

40:17 - A framework for avoiding the negatives of collecting personal data

44:06 - Solving the complex challenges of cookies (not the ones you eat)

51:14 - The rise of data unions and cooperatives

57:01 - How Matz protects her own data

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI363: The Misreading of Trend ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 30 Aug 2025 07:00:00 +0100

As trend following begins to reassert itself, Niels and Nick Baltas dig beneath the surface of recent CTA performance - where the signals are working, why fixed income remains unresolved, and how speed is revealing deeper structural divides. But this episode goes beyond attribution. What if the industry has mistaken correlation shifts for changes in signal speed? What if the very idea of a “trend beta” is flawed? And what if compounding durable returns isn’t about chasing performance, but protecting against path? This is a conversation about design over style, clarity over convention, and the quiet decisions that shape real outcomes.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - Catching up

05:02 - Industry performance update

13:18 - How the speed of trend following strategies is changing

24:13 - Is there a way to define speed differently?

32:19 - Do we have the right definition of a trend index?

38:20 - Brainstorming ideas on how to improve trend following benchmarks

43:50 - The best car needs the best brakes

49:26 - Baltas framework for enhancing trend following performance

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI18: The Carbon Trade, Without the Illusion ft. Mike Azlen

Wed, 27 Aug 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Mike Azlen joins Moritz Seibert for a frank look at carbon markets, and why much of what passes for climate action may be making things worse. While offsets dominate headlines, it's the regulated markets that deliver real emissions cuts by design, not intention. They unpack how cap-and-trade channels profit into abatement, why moral hazard plagues the voluntary space, and where long-only investors can find a real risk premium. From structural inefficiencies to measurable impact, this is a conversation about aligning incentives with outcomes - in a market where price isn’t just a signal, but a lever.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Mike Azlen

04:00 - What are Carbon Markets and how do they function?

13:32 - How Carbon Markets work in different countries

16:35 - The complexities of carbon offsets - viable or just a scam?

21:58 - Is Carbon Capture a viable solution to the climate crisis?

25:44 - Why is there a risk premium in compliance carbon markets?

29:31 - The difference between spot and physical permits

32:35 - Why is the funding premium so large in California?

33:49 - The investment philosophy behind Carbon Cap Management

36:56 - It's all in the EUAs

40:50 - The positive impact of Carbon Cap Management

45:39 - Wrapping up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI362: The Alpha Most Systems Miss ft. Yoav Git

Sat, 23 Aug 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Yoav Git and Alan Dunne sits down for a conversation that challenges familiar assumptions about curve trading, market structure, and the role of CTAs. They explore why dislocations across time horizons create pockets of alpha most models miss, and how breakout behavior in commodity spreads signals more than noise. Drawing on a recent Bank of England study, Yoav explains how different participants leave distinct footprints on the FX curve, and why CTAs, far from being passive allocators, can act as dynamic responders to changing regimes. This is systematic trading, without the shorthand.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?

07:10 - Industry performance update

09:20 - Dont just trend it, curve it

16:33 - The drivers of spread

23:26 - Breaking markets into factors

26:37 - Mastering speed in spread trades

31:39 - Is there too much money in trend?

36:47 - Key insights into FX trading

44:23 - How dealers and market makers approach risk differently

47:28 - The thought provoking fact about the top 5% dealers and market makers

50:23 - The real process of an allocator

56:39 - Using trend as part of a long term strategy

01:01:35 - You should just go play golf

01:04:21 - The tools of trade as an allocator

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM86: Everyone’s Watching the Fed. The Real Story’s Somewhere Else. ft. Louis Vincent-Gave

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 06:30:00 +0100

Louis-Vincent Gave returns with a blunt assessment of a global order fraying at key seams. Construction is stalling. Trade policy is adrift. Capital is retreating from the U.S. And yet, markets hum along... propped up by AI euphoria and the illusion of fiscal permanence. In this conversation with Alan Dunne, Louis questions whether investors grasp the shifting ground beneath their feet: from rising tariff walls to energy fragility, from the quiet restructuring of China’s financial system to the early signals of capital rotation into emerging markets. If this is a transition phase, most portfolios aren’t built for what comes next.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - (Re)Introduction to Louis Gave

03:45 - Gave's analysis of the current economic data

09:45 - What causes the weakening of the economy?

11:54 - The outlook for tariffs - will they eventually become stable?

16:16 - The future for inflation - will it become more persistent over time?

20:43 - The risk factors of energy markets

25:51 - Will we see a Fed cut in September?

26:58 - Powell - in or out?

31:13 - We are seeing a paradigm shift in the US Dollar

38:26 - The outcome of the AI revolution

43:03 - Deficits are like tequila shots

46:55 - We started an equity bull market in China - but one is involved

55:49 - The impact of tariffs on global macro

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI361: The Four Faces of Trend Following ft. Richard Brennan

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Richard Brennan joins Niels for a conversation that redefines how trend following is understood. Behind the shared language lie four distinct archetypes - each built around a different purpose. Richard walks through them with clarity, then unpacks the trade-offs: static sizing vs. vol targeting, symmetry vs. asymmetry, speed vs. patience. A real-world portfolio test drives the point home... some strategies don’t just prefer diversification, they depend on it. This episode is about design, but more than that, it’s about alignment. Because in a field crowded with performance metrics, the most important question often goes unasked: what exactly is this built to do?

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:58 - ChatGPT5 is on fire

06:04 - The AI revolution could be the end of humanity

14:23 - Industry performance update

19:19 - An overview of what topics this episode will cover

21:23 - The decisions that really matter in trend following

27:10 - The 4 archetypes of trend following

34:05 - Its not about facts, its about objectives

40:09 - 1st debate: Diversification vs. concentration

48:52 - 2nd debate: Absolute momentum vs. cross-sectional momentum

50:21 - 3rd debate: Volatility targeting vs static small bits

54:02 - What trend followers sometimes get wrong about volatility and position sizing

57:48 - 4th debate: Symmetry vs asymmetry

01:02:00 - 5th debate: Speed of execution

01:08:01 - Why your approach to diversification is critical

01:18:36 - Brennan's preferences in market diversification

01:22:52 - Is ChatGPT5 actually a downgrade?

01:25:27 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO05: Volatility’s Blueprint: How Markets Really Move ft. Mandy Xu & Ed Tom

Wed, 13 Aug 2025 01:00:00 +0100

From the first futures in 1848 to today’s zero-day options, Cem Karsan, Mandy Xu, and Ed Tom chart how derivatives have moved from the market’s periphery to its center of gravity. At the core is Cboe’s new VIX decomposition tool, which disentangles moves driven by downside hedging, upside speculation, and shifts in the volatility surface. Through episodes like the yuan shock, Volmageddon, and 2024’s “Liberation Day,” they show how positioning can amplify or mute risk, and why vol sometimes rises into rallies. This is a guided tour of volatility’s inner workings, and how reading its structure can reveal the market’s next move before price does.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

59:42 - Introduction to the series

02:21 - Where did options come from and where are we going?

10:20 - The purpose and mechanisms of the VIX decomposition tool

18:55 - The history of the VIX index

23:20 - The beginning of a volmageddon

26:24 - A comparison between 2 recent volatility events (August 2024 and April 2025)

35:03 - Key indicators for understanding risk in markets

42:23 - The current state of 0DTE options

50:29 - The optimal way of using VIX and hedge options

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI360: The Fed, the Fiction, and the Fight for Control ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 09 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

When official data starts serving politics, markets lose their anchor. Alan Dunne and Niels examine the quiet shift unfolding as the U.S. edges closer to emerging market behavior - firing statisticians, sidelining inconvenient numbers, and pressuring the Fed ahead of a consequential leadership reshuffle. With labor supply falling, growth stalling, and tariffs acting as stealth taxes, the Fed’s playbook no longer fits the moment. Behind the scenes, hedge fund power brokers position themselves to shape what comes next. Plus, an unvarnished look at trend following’s drawdown, the lazy critiques making the rounds, and why so many allocators still miss the point.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:32 - What has caught our attention recently?

08:53 - Dunne's global macro overview

13:31 - Is our understanding of growth and GDP outdated?

17:52 - The Fed is under threat from multiple angles

21:38 - Dunne's impression of Kevin Warsh as a candidate for Fed chairman

26:43 - An odd juxtaposition with hedge fund titans' influences on the Fed

32:35 - Industry performance update

37:30 - Our takeaways from The Wall Street Journal's article on Trend Following

43:35 - Why should investors even consider managed futures in the first place?

45:40 - Has Dunne ever been on the verge of cutting trend?

52:08 - Do long term investors really need diversifiers?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL40: Why the Economy Feels Broken... Even When It’s Growing ft. Diane Coyle

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What if our most trusted economic statistic is pointing us in the wrong direction? Diane Coyle joins Kevin Coldiron to explore why GDP - long treated as a proxy for progress - now obscures more than it reveals. As economies shift toward services, intangibles, and unpaid digital labor, much of today’s value creation falls outside the frame. Drawing on her new book, The Measure of Progress, Coyle makes the case for a new way of seeing - one that captures time, trust, and the real foundations of growth. The question isn’t how fast we’re moving. It’s whether we’re measuring the right road.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Diane on X and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - Introduction to Diane Coyle

03:55 - How did the current systems of national accounts came to be?

06:55 - Why the national statistics doesn't add up

11:22 - The underlying problems of GDP

18:42 - How software pose a problem for measuring GDP and economic activity

23:25 - The challenges of cloud computing

26:39 - What is disintermediation and why is it a problem for economic statistics?

33:35 - The importance of considering time as a variable in economic statistics

38:38 - How technological innovations can mess up our ability to measure GDP

40:45 - Coyle's framework for improving how we measure GDP

46:34 - We are thinking about measuring national capital in the wrong way

48:48 - How human capital is measured

53:13 - What kind of statistics does Coyle value when trying to gauge the economy

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI359: Trend Following in a World That Loves Bubbles ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 02 Aug 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Mark Rzepczynski joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation shaped by tension between surface calm and deeper dislocation. From copper’s sudden collapse to signs of stress in liquidity and leverage, they explore how market behavior is increasingly defined by fragility, not fundamentals. With Fed policy boxed in, equity optimism rising, and stablecoins quietly redrawing the contours of the monetary system, the challenge for investors isn’t prediction - it’s positioning. They also confront the limits of complexity in models and why, in uncertain regimes, the discipline of doing less may offer the most resilience. This is trend following in context.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:15 - What has caught our attention recently?

09:08 - The tough situation of Fed independence

10:43 - Industry performance update

14:27 - Mark's analysis of the current trend following performance

21:01 - Are we picking up long term inflation trends?

23:04 - 2025 has given us something rare

26:05 - The core problem that trend followers face today

36:42 - The evolution of stablecoins

43:52 - The definition of financial bubbles is becoming diluted

53:11 - Risk - a feeling or a factor?

58:42 - The seductiveness of complexity

01:01:10 - Key observations from our conversation

01:07:17 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM85: What If the Real Risk Isn’t Recession — But Reinvention? ft. Steven Bell

Wed, 30 Jul 2025 15:00:00 +0100

Steven Bell has seen the macro machine from every angle - Treasury insider, hedge fund manager, and chief economist. In this wide-ranging conversation with Alan Dunne, he traces the quiet erosion of economic orthodoxy and why AI, not tariffs, may prove the more destabilizing force. Bell explains how Fed independence is fraying, why wage dynamics matter more than headline inflation, and what investors miss when they over-index on models. With stories from trading floors and policy rooms alike, this episode captures a rare perspective: someone who’s watched markets evolve, not just from charts, but from inside the decisions that moved them.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Steven on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - Introduction to Steven Bell

05:37 - Has the challenge of forecasting economics changed?

10:27 - Was it easier to be a money manager back in the days?

13:11 - Is emotion and hysteria taking over markets?

16:48 - Tariffs disappearing? Forget it

21:41 - The economic impact of the recent CPI data

24:38 - How tariffs will impact workers and productivity

28:54 - Bell's outlook for inflation

32:15 - Do deficits even matter?

36:51 - How messy will the Fed's handling of inflation be?

44:16 - Who is a likely replacement for Powell?

45:11 - An AI productivity boom

49:14 - Bell's outlook for the economy

56:32 - Navigating the consensus view on the dollar as an economist

01:01:06 - Macro advise for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI358: Why the Best Trend Models Might Be the Simplest Ones ft. Tom Wrobel & Andrew Beer

Sat, 26 Jul 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Andrew Beer and Tom Wroble return to join Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a timely examination of how trend following is adapting, and why some say it may be losing its edge. Tom unpacks new research showing a quiet drift toward slower models, raising the question of whether CTAs are evolving or converging. Andrew pushes back on the prevailing wisdom around diversification, suggesting that complexity often obscures cost rather than delivering true value. From shifting model speeds to the incentives shaping manager behavior, this is a conversation about what trend following is becoming... and what investors risk overlooking as some strategies grow more complex in pursuit of outperformance.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn,

Episode TimeStamps:

01:52 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:11 - Industry performance update

07:44 - Wrobel's perspective on the current CTA environment

09:32 - Key findings from Wrobel's recent paper

14:51 - The shape is key for managing risk

17:26 - How changes in the underlying managers affect replication strategies

22:10 - Is there such a thing as a happy "medium" in trading speed?

28:09 - Are replication strategies less challenged when selecting markets?

33:35 - The structure of an allocator

36:12 - How much tracking error is acceptable in replication?

42:14 - Trend is doing better than people expect

43:49 - The Voldemort of the trend following space

51:02 - Are ultra diversified portfolio merely a party trick?

56:25 - The challenges of slippage and implementation cost

01:03:49 - It all comes down to the predictability of trends

01:06:23 - Let's talk about the data, please

01:09:01 - Common misunderstandings of trend

01:12:12 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU150: Scarcity, Security, and the Shift to Soil ft. Artem Milinchuk

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What happens when an overlooked asset becomes essential? Artem Milinchuk returns to share how farmland, long seen as niche... is quietly stepping into the center of long-term portfolios. He and Niels discuss what’s changed since 2020: rising inflation, tighter capital, a demographic handoff reshaping land ownership, and how tech is altering both the economics and culture of agriculture. This isn’t about chasing yield. It’s about owning what endures. From almonds to avocados, tariffs to treasuries, and legacy to liquidity, this episode offers a clear-eyed look at an asset class rooted in necessity, and poised for relevance.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Artem on X.

Check out these resources about farmland investing

Episode Timestamps:

02:24 - A recap on our previous conversation

06:22 - What has changed about their strategy since our last conversation (in 2020)?

10:28 - How does farmland investing actually generate income?

12:32 - How does farmland investing work and operate?

15:28 - Geopolitical volatility - How FarmTogether deals with tariffs

19:00 - How different types of crops carries different types of risk

23:22 - A deep dive into the volatility behind farmland investing

27:40 - What is a fair level of volatility to expect from farmland investing?

30:49 - The tech side of agriculture - where are we heading?

33:58 - Major changes in agriculture on the horizon

40:22 - How much money has been allocated to farmland investing today?

41:58 - Are institutions sleeping on farmland investing?

43:40 - Liquidity and fees - what can you expect from farmland investing?

46:00 - Sustainability and profitability - 2 sides of the same coin

49:08 - How FarmTogether deals with drought and limited water supplies

52:26 - How political pressure impacts agriculture

56:12 - Are we entering an agricultural supercycle?

58:56 - How the billionaires are approaching farmland

01:00:26 - The most important question(s) to ask in farmland investing

01:03:59 - The biggest challenge for family offices today

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI357: Liquidity, Leverage, and the Lie of Calm ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 19 Jul 2025 06:00:00 +0100

As summer sets in, Cem Karsan joins Niels Kaastrup-Larsen to trace the contours of a market that feels calm but isn’t. What looks like low vol masks a crowded hedge fund ecosystem and a structural vol compression regime few understand. From a VIX spike driven by unexpected Call activity to the slow-motion political pressure on Powell, the signals are subtle but mounting. They cover China’s resource diplomacy, AI’s quiet dislocation of white-collar work, and the rising fragility from concentration across assets, brokers, and narratives. This is a conversation about setup, not outcome... and the traps hiding in plain sight.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:30 - Stay tuned for the latest UGO episode!

05:04 - China is taking the long view - and succeeding with it

07:04 - Tech companies are starting to buy into rare earth

08:30 - The risk of high stock trading firm concentration

11:01 - Industry performance update

13:33 - Q1, Rick: What other asset class volatilites besides gold are mispriced at the moment?

24:59 - Karsan's thoughts on the current macro environment

30:33 - What could trigger a deleveraging/degrossing event?

32:28 - The impact of tariffs - what do the numbers tell us?

41:21 - Is a firing on the horizon for Powell?

46:53 - Inflation is becoming hard to hedge

56:15 - The Emperor's New Clothes moment

58:05 - Addressing Paul Jones' asset allocation

01:03:35 - Will AI make us all unemployed?

01:10:13 - Is Libertarianism is a bigger threat to the US than Socialism?

01:13:28 - Where are markets heading according to Karsan?

01:28:27 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO04: CNBC Legend on the Price of Losing Price ft. Rick Santelli

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 01:00:00 +0100

Rick Santelli joins Cem Karsan for a conversation that cuts through the noise. From the floor of the Cboe to the era of central bank primacy, Santelli reflects on how markets have been reshaped... not just by technology or policy, but by the loss of honest signals. They cover the Fed’s shift from restraint to control, the unintended consequences of zero rates, and why housing, credit, and the long bond may be nearing a breaking point. This isn’t a retrospective. It’s a clear warning from someone who’s seen what happens when incentives go unchecked.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:02 - Introduction to the UGO series

01:26 - Introduction to Rick Santelli

05:16 - The first trade Santelli ever made

06:32 - The historical performance of gold

08:39 - Why did Santelli move to interest rates?

10:28 - How technology impacts the way we invest

13:30 - A shadow Fed president

14:46 - How Alan Greenspan changed everything

18:47 - We are starting to pay the price of overspending

22:04 - Money printing - a daisy chain of a closed circuit

23:50 - How do we get out of debt and how does it end?

29:06 - How do you invest wisely in today's economy?

36:48 - Cost of credit: The lurking financial threat

39:03 - How young people should set themselves up for retirement

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI356: The Anatomy of a CTA Recovery ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 12 Jul 2025 06:30:00 +0100

Katy Kaminski returns to examine a moment in trend following that feels familiar... but isn’t. Drawing on new research, she and Niels explore how drawdowns resolve, why recovery is faster when markets break, and slower when they don’t, and what that asymmetry reveals about the current cycle. They unpack copper’s historic 1-day move, the role of China in CTA return dispersion, and what slower, replication-based strategies might be capturing that others aren’t. This episode isn’t about defending trend - it’s about understanding what environments it needs, and what signals suggest we’re getting closer.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has been on our radar recently?

07:43 - Crazy moves in US copper

09:45 - Industry performance update

14:31 - How should we approach the current drawdowns in managed futures?

23:01 - Why trend following is struggling at the moment

31:22 - Rebalancing in trend following is key

33:57 - A better alternative trend following?

37:32 - The different types of impact to markets and how it reflects on the CTA industry

44:41 - The key variables for understanding regimes

53:21 - Replication is beating the benchmarks that they are trying to replicate

58:16 - Mechanical vs. regression based replication

59:33 - Defining tracking error

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO30: The Quiet Rewire of Portfolio Construction ft. Cian Walsh

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 07:30:00 +0100

Cian Walsh, Head of Hedge Funds and Private Debt at Formue, joins Alan Dunne to explore what it means to allocate capital when the macro regime, client expectations, and the structure of markets are all in flux. He explains why the 60/40 model obscures more than it reveals, how he is adapting institutional frameworks for thousands of private clients, and what changes when you view hedge funds not as a bucket, but as a function. From the discipline of sizing trend in a sideways regime to the slow shift from vintage private credit to evergreen, this is a conversation about building portfolios that can hold together when the ground moves.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Cian Walsh

05:30 - How does institutional asset allocation stand out?

06:39 - Asset allocation in a shifting regime

09:33 - A move towards mass customization

10:26 - The 60/40 portfolio is dying - what is next?

13:28 - The challenges of implementing a total portfolio approach

17:16 - Dealing with underperforming strategies

20:09 - More growth or more all-weather?

23:30 - Why Walsh believes in systematic trading

28:51 - Do Walsh hold any long volatility strategies?

30:04 - Walsh's process for selecting managers

36:55 - Managing fees and the rise of Pod Shops

39:54 - Their approach to early stage allocation and risk

42:03 - How manager selection differs from asset allocation

44:32 - Their process of upholding expected returns and performance

46:55 - Balancing hedge fund allocation and private credit

50:20 - Does hedge fund allocation call for more caution?

52:46 - How to avoid sitting short on liquidity

54:48 - The pitfalls of the private credit space

58:19 - Will credit markets outperform growth equity markets?

01:00:27 - Walsh's key advice and book recommendations for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI355: Drawdowns Don’t Lie, But They May Mislead ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 05 Jul 2025 07:30:00 +0100

Markets have recovered fast - maybe too fast. Alan and Niels unpack what sits beneath the surface: a bond market brushing off record deficits, volatility draining from asset prices, and trend followers caught between sharp reversals and shrinking conviction. They explore how sentiment, structure, and speed are shaping today’s trading environment, and what most investors still underestimate about liquidity, macro policy, and risk. With fresh research in hand, they ask whether drawdowns are misunderstood, if diversification has become an illusion, and why clarity often emerges only after the pain. We do recognize that we had some technical issues with this recording and appreciate you for sticking with us.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:38 - Industry performance update

07:38 - Is trend thriving?

09:57 - Dunne's global macro overview

16:33 - A catastrophic year for the dollar

18:12 - Is this time different for trend following drawdowns?

27:26 - The value of long term track records

34:30 - Is trend following flawed?

37:48 - What are investors actually interested in?

44:32 - What is up for next week?

----

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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI17: The End of the Bull Market: What’s Next for Equities? ft. Asim Ghaffar

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 07:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Asim Ghaffar, the founder and CIO of AG Capital, a Boston-based macro hedge fund. Asim explains why he believes insourcing rather than outsourcing the organizational processes of running a hedge fund business is critical and how it can add long-term value to the business. He also describes why sales and branding are key components to a successful investment management business, and how AG Capital connects with clients and prospective investors. In the second part of the conversation, Asam and Moritz speak about AG Capital’s style of trading, how they position size, why they take concentrated positions, how their methods differ from those of systematic trend following funds, and what their current long-term and short-term investment themes are, touching on gold, Bitcoin, copper, natural gas, and some other markets.

-----

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IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Introduction to Asim Ghaffar and AG Capital

06:48 - What defines a great hedge fund?

12:13 - How do you find clients as a hedge fund?

18:32 - Creating world class in-house operations

25:32 - Ghaffar's framework for building portfolios

35:05 - How Ghaffar differs from a classical trend follower

39:16 - Why Ghaffar enforces a fixed number of positions

41:40 - What is so cool about stocks?

46:16 - Why Ghaffar sometimes decreases an exposure

51:36 - How Ghaffar approaches gold

54:05 - Why AG Capital stays away from Bitcoin

01:01:54 - Is China actually more democratic than the US?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI354: Everyone’s Different. Until They’re Not ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 28 Jun 2025 06:30:00 +0100

With markets drifting and conviction thinning, Rob Carver joins Niels to take stock of a moment that feels suspended... not quite crisis, not quite calm. They discuss why recent rule changes around bank capital and crypto assets may carry more weight than headlines suggest, and what falling shipping volumes might be whispering about global demand. Rob breaks down the math of drawdowns, the tension between Kelly sizing and real-world volatility, and how systematic managers can fool themselves into thinking they’re diversified. It’s a conversation about structure, discipline, and why most edges today come from avoiding mistakes rather than discovering secrets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught out attention recently?

01:23 - Rob and Niels have done the unthinkable

02:59 - Fed is rolling back important capital rules

05:22 - What the shipping industry reveals about the economy

07:33 - Industry performance update

16:00 - Q1, William: Is it possible to apply the concept of decomposing returns in commodity trading?

27:24 - Q2, Raphael: About estimating the full sharpe and Kelly of trend following

37:03 - Q3, Dom: Has Rob come across any useful frameworks, research, or resources for designing systems that intentionally combine systematic structure with discretionary judgment?

41:52 - Are all managers the same, although we all claim to be different?

52:26 - Why are bond investors contrarian while equity investors extrapolate?

01:01:59 - "What if you missed the best days of a market?"

01:11:53 - Rounding up

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM84: What Everyone Saw, but No One Priced ft. Bob Elliott

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Bob Elliott joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a conversation about what happens when strong economic data masks a deeper structural shift. The income engine still runs, but tariffs, labor scarcity, and immigration limits are quietly rewiring the system. Inflation may not fall the way people expect. Profit margins may not hold. And capital may start flowing away from the US for the first time in a generation. This isn’t a cycle call. It’s a question of what kind of economy we are becoming—and whether portfolios built for the past can survive what’s coming.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:58 - Revisiting the Income Driven Expansion

12:30 - Inflation Dynamics and Economic Policy

15:31 - The Dynamics of Labor and Immigration

27:58 - Strategic Decoupling and Its Implications

32:04 - The Economic Implications of Manufacturing in China

42:13 - Economic Growth and Market Dynamics

48:28 - The Evolving Landscape of Investment Strategies

53:25 - Understanding Alpha Strategies and Portfolio Diversification

01:01:10 - The Dynamics of Hedge Fund Strategies and Correlation

01:09:34 - Global Macro Trends and Financial Decoupling

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3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI353: You Don’t Buy It for Returns. You Buy It Because It Works! ft. Yoav Git

Sat, 21 Jun 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Some of the most effective portfolio components may generate little or no return on their own. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Yoav Git explore that discomfort - why allocators often overlook strategies that offer the most structural value. Through a series of new research papers, they examine how negative correlation, volatility, and capital efficiency can outweigh standalone performance, and why trend following continues to challenge conventional assumptions. It’s a conversation about construction over conviction, contribution over headline returns, and the gap between what improves a portfolio and what investors are willing to own.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 - Introduction and latest update

07:57 - Trend Following score card

12:38 - Latest paper from R.G. Niederhoffer

26:45 - Latest insights from Quantica Capital

36:55 - Review of Soc Gen's latest report on the state of the CTA Industry

44:52 - The Science and Practice of Trend-following Systems paper by Artur Sepp

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM83: The Risk We Forgot to Price ft. Barry Eichengreen

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 11:00:00 +0100

Barry Eichengreen joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at a system losing its anchors. The dollar’s standing, long insulated by trust and habit, now faces a different kind of test... one shaped less by challengers abroad than by fractures at home. They explore how rising debt, political entropy, and institutional strain are converging in ways that markets are only beginning to price. From the quiet retreat of safe haven flows to the uneasy future of central bank independence, this is a conversation about slow shifts with fast consequences, and what happens when credibility, not currency, becomes the liability.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Follow Barry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:09 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen

03:51 - The Future of the Dollar: Concerns and Predictions

14:29 - Fiscal Challenges and Policy Responses

33:04 - Analyzing Economic Policies and Their Impacts

49:18 - Global Economic Perspectives: Trade Wars and Currency Alternatives

56:46 - The Future of Global Currency Systems

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI352: Trend Systems Under Strain ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 14 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Nick Baltas is back with Niels for a conversation that sits at the intersection of technology, uncertainty, and discipline. As AI-generated data floods the system and market reversals grow sharper, the challenge isn’t just strategy design — it’s deciding what still counts as signal. They explore how systematic managers are rethinking volatility targets, why certain constraints persist in institutional portfolios, and what recent underperformance may actually be revealing. This episode is less about solutions than about orientation: how to stay aligned when the tools evolve faster than the terrain, and when conviction must coexist with doubt.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:01 - Introduction to Systematic Investing

02:11 - The Impact of AI and Machine Learning on Data Analysis

07:05 - The Impact of AI on Education and Examination Policies

12:06 - Transitioning Perspectives on Democracy and Markets

21:49 - Dynamic Volatility Targeting in Portfolio Management

24:24 - Exploring Volatility and Leverage

29:50 - Understanding Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics

36:29 - Exploring Investment Constraints and Strategies

45:04 - Rethinking Investment Constraints

49:36 - Strategic Allocations and Market Timing

56:11 - Market Dynamics and Trend Following

01:00:09 - The Evolution of Systematic Investing

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

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And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO03: This Isn’t 2008. That’s the Problem ft. Benn Eifert

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 02:00:00 +0100

Back on the Cboe floor, Cem Karsan sits down with Benn Eifert to trace the fault lines shaping today’s volatility regime. They dig into why market structure, not just macro, is driving outcomes... from the reflexive cycles of implied vol to the growing influence of structured product flows and zero-day options. With correlations breaking down and dispersion rising, Benn makes the case that path matters more than magnitude. It’s a conversation about what happens when liquidity fragments, when the Fed can’t step in, and when legacy playbooks stop working. Quietly technical, deeply contextual, this one rewards a careful listen.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:11 - Introduction... setting the stage

03:01 - Understanding Options and Market Dynamics

09:47 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Administration

11:41 - Market Volatility and Structural Changes in Trading

19:00 - The Impact of Structural Changes on Market Volume

26:13 - Understanding Market Dynamics and Asset Allocation

30:23 - The Impact of Interest Rates on Investment Strategies

34:21 - Understanding Zero DTE Options and Their Market Impact

39:50 - Economic Outlook: Tariffs and Interest Rates

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

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2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI351: The Two Tribes of Trend ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 07 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

As trend followers push through one of the toughest environments in years, Rich and Niels unpack what’s actually driving the pain. They draw a sharp line between two camps in the industry - those who focus on standalone market behavior and those who manage trend as a portfolio-level phenomenon, and explain why that distinction now matters more than ever. From the ripple effects of tariff policy to the quiet fragility in institutional positioning, this episode traces how structural shifts are colliding with legacy assumptions. Also on the table: AI’s growing role in model development, the hidden costs of bad data, and what it really takes to build a resilient, scalable process in a world where noise is cheap and conviction is rare.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing

03:55 - The Shift Towards AI in Trading

11:25 - The Rise of Idiosyncratic Trend Following Post-2020

21:42 - The Impact of Recent Market Dynamics

25:39 - The Rise of Retail Trading in Futures

34:09 - The Panama Method of Historical Adjustments

42:32 - Understanding Backtesting and Data Integrity in Trading Models

47:36 - Navigating Capital Constraints in Trend Following

55:14 - Understanding AI in Trading Strategies

01:00:14 - The Challenges of AI in Trading and Strategy Development

01:04:44 - The Impact of AI on Humanity

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI16: Return Stacking: Form, Function & Friction ft. Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 06:00:00 +0100

Corey Hoffstein and Adam Butler joins to unpack the mechanics of stacking returns inside an ETF — not as a branding exercise, but as a way to navigate the hard constraints of scale, structure, and investor behavior. They break down how Return Stacked blends top-down replication with a bottom-up trend engine, why most investors misunderstand what replication actually captures, and where the fault lines lie between mutual funds and ETFs. From margin management and bid-offer spreads to the limits of liquidity in a product built for growth, this conversation surfaces what it really means to package active strategies for a public wrapper — and what gets lost, or found, in the process.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 - Introduction to Corey Hoffstein & Adam Butler

09:06 - How Hoffstein and Butler see the trend following industry going forward

12:24 - The possibilities and constraints of trading ETFs

20:52 - The philosophy behind their trading strategy

27:26 - How they calibrate their model to accommodate markets changes

32:03 - How they incorporate replication in their strategy

35:50 - Their process behind capturing beta

46:42 - The benefits of adding a longer tail for markets

49:25 - How much volatility can trend followers tolerate?

54:23 - How they maintain balance in their trend following portfolio

57:37 - Implementing different types of return streams

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI350: Why All Roads Lead to Higher Yields ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 31 May 2025 09:30:00 +0100

Why are markets still priced as if the old world is coming back? Alan Dunne and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen examine the case for structurally higher yields — not as a risk, but as the regime. Drawing from Alan’s recent writing, they trace how debt levels, policy incentives, and investor complacency have converged into a feedback loop that central banks may no longer control. From Japan’s bond signals to the quiet retreat of fiscal discipline in the U.S., this episode maps a shift that’s already underway. For investors still relying on yesterday’s models, the risk isn’t missing the turn...it’s not seeing that we’ve already made it.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 - Introduction to Systematic Investing

10:52 - Global Macro Picture: All Roads Lead to Higher Yields

17:26 - The Evolution of Economic Policy and Debt Dynamics

29:55 - The Influence of Economic Policies on Inflation and Growth

40:13 - Market Trends and Investor Sentiment Survey

45:08 - Navigating Market Expectations and Historical Trends

59:34 - The Importance of Diversification in Investment Strategies

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL39: Is Trump Making Europe Great Again? ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

Wed, 28 May 2025 10:00:00 +0100

We're diving deep into some serious discussions about the shifting dynamics in Europe, particularly how the political landscape, especially with Trump's influence, is shaking things up. Economists Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels who authored a compelling book on the New World Economy, argue that Trump's policies might actually be a wake-up call for Europe, pushing it to innovate and stand on its own. We explore the concept of multi-globalization, where emerging markets are stepping into the spotlight as global trade partners, and how the geopolitical climate is driving this change. We also touch on the implications of these shifts for global markets and the economy, especially in terms of energy and raw materials. It's a thought-provoking chat that challenges our views on dependency and the future of Europe in a rapidly changing world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Koen on LinkedIn.

Follow Philippe on LinkedIn.

Learn more about their book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Welcoming back Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

04:05 - What is multi globalization and how does it apply to today's global economy?

11:57 - Is it safe for European companies to rely on U.S tech?

19:01 - The future of Europe

24:52 - The forces driving gold

29:04 - Investing in the physical metals vs investing in the miners

31:08 - How climate changes impacts raw materials like copper

37:36 - How the energy transition impacts investor sentiment

42:32 - When will AI make an impact on productivity?

48:44 - Start investing in yourself

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI349: Navigating the Age of Uncertainty with Trend Following ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 24 May 2025 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Niels and Mark Rzepczynski examine a market where the usual relationships have broken down. Bonds offer no shelter, volatility moves without conviction, and political intervention keeps distorting the signals investors rely on. What once served as protection now feels unreliable. Behind the headlines on tariffs, inflation, and eroding trust in institutions lies a deeper question about how to navigate when the frameworks built for one regime are carried into another. With a balance of macro insights, behavioral nuance, and hard-earned skepticism, this conversation looks at what really drives returns when narratives shift faster than the data.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:13 - What Caught our Attention

04:16 - The Impact of Supply Chains on Global Trade

08:51 - The Complexities of Trust in Economics

17:45 - Understanding Trend Following in Financial Markets

27:18 - The Age of Uncertainty

32:51 - Understanding Market Uncertainty

36:52 - More than One Type of Uncertainty

49:53 - The Fallout of Trend Following

01:01:22 - The Dynamics of Safe Assets

01:02:41 - Transitioning from Concepts to Practical Insights in Trend Following

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM82: The Surprising Success of the U.S. Economy ft. Elroy Dimson & Kiran Ganesh

Wed, 21 May 2025 06:45:00 +0100

America's recent economic performance has been a surprise, as it's managed to outperform many other markets over the last quarter century. We review the insights from the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, discussing how the US has thrived and what that means for future investment strategies. Our guests, Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh, share their expertise on market trends, the importance of diversification, and the implications of recent economic shifts. We also explore the complexities of factors like equity risk premium and the evolving role of bonds in an investment portfolio. Join us as we explore these themes and consider what’s next for investors in a changing global landscape. You can read the Global Investment Returns Yearbook here.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Elroy on LinkedIn.

Follow Kiran on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - Introduction to Elroy Dimson and Kiran Ganesh

09:21 - What kind of feedback do they get from clients?

13:04 - Stocks for the long run?

17:41 - Is the US losing its grip on its economy?

24:08 - Are indicies becoming more crucial for portfolios?

25:39 - Ranking equity markets according to risk

27:22 - How often should we expect economic collapses?

29:13 - The surprising outcomes of bonds

34:00 - Bonds - are we returning to 1999?

38:31 - Which asset classes are the optimal inflation hedges?

40:47 - Where do most of their returns come from?

41:56 - How they approach the evolving interest rate landscape

43:49 - The state of Bitcoin and alternative assets

49:59 - Key insights to factor investing

54:38 - Is value investing becoming structurally more challenged?

55:48 - Performance expectations in the major asset classes

57:36 - Advice for constructing a solid long term portfolio

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI348: The Quiet Cost of Overfitting ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 17 May 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Andrew Beer returns to confront a moment of reckoning for trend following. As managed futures suffer one of their worst periods in decades, he and Niels explore a deeper question: has the strategy evolved in ways that undermine its edge? From the seduction of short-term models to the unintended consequences of complexity, this conversation traces how well-meaning enhancements may be compounding the very problems they aim to solve. Layer in political volatility, crowded positioning, and allocator fatigue, and the path forward looks less like innovation and more like rediscovery. This episode isn’t a defense of recent results... it’s a clear-eyed look at what happens when a strategy built on discipline gets pulled off course, and what it takes to steer it back.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:20 - Reflecting on Apple and China's Tech Revolution

17:28 - Shifts in the Market Landscape: The Influence of Trump and AI

20:03 - The Dynamics of Negotiation in Real Estate

30:15 - Market Dynamics and the Role of Central Banks

39:26 - The Changing Dynamics of Market Trends

48:00 - Evaluating Investment Strategies and Performance

53:19 - Navigating Market Challenges and Expectations

01:08:34 - The Future of Investment Strategies

01:11:10 - Navigating Market Changes

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO02: Inequality, Inflation, and the End of Consensus ft. Jim Bianco

Wed, 14 May 2025 00:15:00 +0100

What if the volatility we’re seeing is not a pause in the cycle, but the start of something lasting? In this episode, Cem Karsan sits down with Jim Bianco to unpack the forces reshaping the market and the political landscape around it. From the roots of labor unrest in 1880s Chicago to rising tariffs and inflation today, they trace how decades of policy widened inequality and fractured the middle. This is a conversation about debt, power, and the limits of the old playbook. The Fed may no longer be able to step in. Passive investing may no longer offer safety. If you are still positioned for the past, this episode is a clear signal to rethink what comes next.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Jim on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:01 - Introduction to Jim Bianco and Bianco Research

06:36 - The big macro picture view

16:02 - The financial inequality is at an all time high

22:51 - The power of generational wealth

24:07 - The imbalance of politics - something has to change

27:47 - Why we will see a major shift in how we invest soon

30:19 - How the economy is changing

36:10 - What defines a strong economy?

40:58 - What is Trump talking about?

45:36 - The outlook of the economy

53:33 - The core of the political problems in the US

55:16 - How to benefit from the current market volatility

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI347: Stagflation, Storytelling, and the Search for a New Hero ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 10 May 2025 06:30:00 +0100

Today Cem and Niels dissect a world quietly shifting beneath our feet.

As markets hum along, Cem explains why the real story lies beneath the surface: a structural liquidity drain, a creeping stagflation that defies familiar playbooks, and a political regime shift few are pricing in. From Buffett’s exit to dollar fragility, elite endowments tapping the bond market, and oil diplomacy with geopolitical undertones—this is a conversation about change in motion.

But this episode doesn’t stop at markets. It’s about the narrative arc of societies under stress—about whether the West can summon the unity and courage to face its next great test.

Insightful, urgent, and layered - this is the episode you will look back on and say: the clues were all there.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:17 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:54 - Industry performance update

08:44 - Inflation is coming - what now?

16:43 - The Fed is stuck and the Trump administration is changing

26:07 - If US debt defaults, what is left?

29:32 - Are we experiencing the decline of the dollar?

40:19 - The OPEC game

43:21 - Reflecting on the conversation with Demetri Kofinas

48:33 - What is courage as a society?

50:49 - The West is being disunified...on purpose

53:22 - Do we actually know who or what the real enemy is?

58:58 - Cem's latest market forecast

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM81: What If Everything You Believe About Markets Is Wrong? ft. Demetri Kofinas

Wed, 07 May 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What if the biggest risk in markets today isn’t volatility, inflation, or geopolitics - but the stories we believe to be true? In this unfiltered and thought-provoking episode, Demetri Kofinas joins Cem Karsan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen for a piercing conversation that challenges how we process information, construct narratives, and make decisions in uncertain environments. This isn’t about market forecasts - it’s about how easily our thinking can be hijacked. From the corrosive incentives of financial media to the quiet ways conviction becomes cognitive quicksand, Demetri argues that investors today are drowning not in data, but distortion - misled by institutions built to entertain, not enlighten. Yet this episode is more than critique. It offers a path forward - one grounded in introspection, discomfort, and the discipline of intellectual honesty. For anyone managing capital - or simply trying to see clearly in a noisy world—this is a conversation that may shift not just your positions, but your perspective. Because the greatest edge in markets isn’t a model. It’s clarity when others are lost in the fog.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Demetri on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:21 - Introduction to Demetri Kofinas

04:39 - The era of financial nihilism

11:44 - The birth of a radical optimism?

20:10 - The risk of not heeding the call

26:16 - The dark side of smoothing the business cycle

29:14 - What have we lost in the vacuum of consequence?

33:39 - The collapse of the social contract

38:25 - The importance of a unified narrative

47:16 - Technology - a driver of unity or disunity?

50:05 - The role of government in libertarianism

53:12 - How far are we from a fourth turning?

56:25 - Crisis is a perception relative to where you are

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI346: Is the Trend Still Your Friend ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 03 May 2025 07:30:00 +0100

This episode is all about understanding the nuances of trend-following and how current market dynamics are shaking things up. Together with Rob Carver, we discuss the turbulence that hit financial markets in April and how that affected Trend Followers, as well as how Rob navigated the last 12 months as a trend follower. Plus, we explore the intriguing topic of safe haven assets, questioning if traditional choices like U.S. treasury bonds still hold up under pressure. We also explore a paper that the discuss the pros and cons of simplicity over complexity in strategy design.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:59 - Society is going crazy

09:47 - Industry performance update

16:22 - How to capture the bounce in trailing stops

23:20 - Industry performance numbers

25:18 - Q1, Niall: What books would you recommend for a young quant entering the CTA space today?

29:05 - Reviewing Rob's annual trend following performance

36:26 - Should we start to rethink our approach to drawdowns?

40:45 - How do we stop investors from projecting market expectations to trend following performance

44:16 - How Rob defines slippage

50:12 - What if we base our trend system on one indicator?

54:18 - Does this trend following thing still work?

58:56 - Getting to know the founders of trend following

01:01:09 - Rob's approach to leveraged ETFs

01:07:27 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL38: Our Dollar, Your Problem ft. Kenneth Rogoff

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 07:00:00 +0100

What if the most dangerous thing in the global economy isn’t a shock — but the quiet collapse of the frameworks we still rely on?

In this rare, unfiltered conversation, Kenneth Rogoff — Harvard professor and former IMF Chief Economist — joins Kevin Coldiron to confront the reality that’s too uncomfortable for most policymakers to admit:

The world has changed. The models haven’t.

Rogoff explores what happens when inflation refuses to respond, debt compounds beneath the surface, AI reshapes productivity, and geopolitics redraws the map — while central banks keep playing by yesterday’s rules.

This isn’t a call for panic. It’s a call for intellectual honesty.

Because in a world where the past no longer explains the present, clarity is the only edge that matters.

If you manage capital — or ideas — in a world built on assumptions, this episode is for you.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Kenneth on X and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:01 - Introduction to Kenneth Rogoff

03:04 - What is at stake if the dollar loses its dominance?

09:13 - How Trump tariffs are destroying the dollar

13:27 - What are the alternatives to the dollar dominance?

19:18 - How increased military spending could strengthen the European currencies

27:19 - The Chinese Yuan is evolving

36:01 - The potential for alternative stable coins

43:25 - The perks of currency dominance

44:26 - Why dollar dominance gives us lower rates

52:05 - Are we entering a new era of currencies?

54:55 - What form will the financial repression take?

59:24 - How Rogoff would deal with the U.S debt

01:03:21 - We are gambling on rates

01:06:31 - Its time for the profession to wake up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI345: From Chaos to Clarity: The Power of Systematic Investing ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 26 Apr 2025 06:30:00 +0100

This episode is all about exploring the intricacies of market behavior, how trends shift, and what that means for our investment strategies. We’re having a serious chat about the impact of recent market fluctuations and how they influence our approaches to trend following. Together with Nick Baltas, we’ll touch on the dynamics of crowding in trades and how that shapes investor sentiment. So, grab your headphones and get ready for a straightforward, no-nonsense journey through the latest trends and insights in the investing world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:59 - What has caught our attention recently?

09:44 - We are entering an era of new market drivers

15:31 - Why gold might be overrated

17:34 - The challenges that investors are facing at the moment

21:26 - Pension funds - reasons for concern?

25:05 - Industry performance update

27:08 - How Baltas' models react to the current markets

30:46 - Industry performance numbers

32:57 - Q1, Tim: Should an allocator into trend following strategies keep holding on to the winners or switch between trend following strategies?

43:35 - Q1.1, Tim: Based on his models, where does Nick currently see crowded trades, and what is his assessment on crowdedness / positioning in equities where things have been particularly choppy?

47:15 - Q2, Dimitri: I’m curious whether Nick sees banks allocating more resources to systematic strategies in credit over the next few years?

51:12 - Deep dive into economic trend

58:29 - Discussing Katy Kaminski's & MAN Groups latest paper on crisis and corrections

01:06:31 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI15: Navigating the Commodity Markets with Calculo Capital ft. Ole Hansen & Philip Carlsson

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Today, we're diving deep into the world of commodities with Calculo Capital, a short-term quantitative hedge fund based in Denmark. Our guests, Philip Engel Carlsson and Ole Hansen, share their insights on how they navigate the fast-paced commodity markets using machine learning techniques. We explore how their focus on liquid markets and short holding periods allows them to capitalize on price movements driven by supply and demand imbalances. The conversation also touches on the current trends in commodities, like the rising demand for precious metals and the impact of geopolitical events. Join us as we uncover the strategies behind Calculo's approach and what sets them apart in the investment landscape.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Ole on LinkedIn.

Follow Philip on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 - Introduction to Calculo Capital

03:53 - The state of today's commodity markets

10:35 - Commodity performance numbers

11:34 - What is driving the increased performance in the precious metal markets?

15:35 - How the commodity performance impacts the way Calculo Capital is trading

16:48 - Why do Calculo Capital only focus on commodity markets?

18:12 - What kind of commodities do they trade and why?

19:50 - What is a supply/demand imbalance and how do you spot it?

21:23 - It's all about price

24:49 - How they find the optimal trading position

28:57 - How they apply machine learning in their trading

32:16 - How they execute trades

33:48 - What has attracted Ole Hansen into investing in Calculo Capital?

39:51 - Why is Calculo Capital based in Denmark?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI344: Trend Following during Trump Tariff Turmoil ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 19 Apr 2025 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, we explore the current market dynamics and discuss Katy Kaminski's latest research paper on crisis and correction alpha, which provides insights into how CTA strategies are navigating turbulent times. We also touch on the importance of understanding how trends shift and the implications for various asset classes. From examining the impact of correlation and volatility in risk management to discussing the nuances of different trading speeds, we aim to equip you with a clearer perspective on what to expect from these time tested strategies, which forms part of the latest wave of Portable Alpha offerings. Join us, as we find out how you can uncover opportunities in these challenging market conditions.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:58 - Industry performance update

08:33 - What are the most interesting markets according to Kaminski?

14:06 - Industry performance numbers

15:31 - Crisis or correction?

22:04 - A historical perspective - we have been here before..

28:50 - Crisis alpha or Chaos alpha?

33:01 - Why are managers' performance so different this time?

39:20 - It's all about the long game

41:42 - The trend following trading speed is shifting

50:18 - Should markets be treated differently in terms of speed?

52:18 - Advice for building strong trend following portfolios

57:37 - The role of correlation and volatility in trend following

01:07:45 - The search for crisis alpha continues

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL37: Hate the Game? How to Navigate Life's Economic Challenges ft. Daryl Fairweather

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 05:00:00 +0100

Discover how to navigate the complexities of personal and professional decisions through the lens of behavioral economics. Kevin Coldiron speaks with Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin and author of the book "Hate the Game," who shares insights on using economic principles to tackle everyday challenges, from negotiating salaries to understanding workplace dynamics. They explore the importance of empathy and perspective-taking in decision-making, emphasizing that understanding the rules of the economic game can empower individuals to succeed despite systemic inequalities. Fairweather discusses her own journey in economics and the lessons learned from her experiences, including the value of strategic thinking in competitive environments. This conversation is not only enlightening but also serves as a practical guide for anyone looking to improve their decision-making skills and career trajectory.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Daryl on X and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Daryl Fairweather

07:30 - Choosing games and assessing probabilities

13:14 - How do you know if your boss is a jerk?

14:03 - Why it is important to be aware of how you present your resumé

16:23 - What happens when algorithms take over the hiring process

17:19 - Should you de-emphasize your resume if you are overqualified for a job?

19:22 - A real life example of recency bias

22:34 - How to minimize recency bias when designing systems

24:42 - How to master the promotion process through backward induction

28:26 - The key steps to get promoted and get higher salaries

29:40 - Fairweather's approach to negotiating salaries

36:46 - Why men and women should handle workplace conflicts differently

39:27 - How Fairweather would solve the challenges of the housing market

43:21 - Reflecting on the new Californian housing laws

47:10 - What was Fairweather's favorite chapter in her book?

47:50 - What did she exclude from the book and why?

48:23 - What is the target audience for the book?

49:28 - Why is the book called "Hate the Game"?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI343: CTAs: The Unexpected Heroes of Market Crises ft. Yoav Git

Sat, 12 Apr 2025 16:00:00 +0100

Together with Yoav Git, we’ll explore how market conditions are shifting and what that means for investors, especially in light of recent bond market movements. It’s been a wild ride lately, with unexpected changes in correlations between stocks and bonds, and we’re here to break it all down. We’ll also touch on the implications for trend-following strategies and how they can adapt in these turbulent times. So, whether you’re a seasoned investor or just curious, hang tight as we unravel these complex topics together!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:21 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:39 - Are there more to the Trump Tariffs than meets the eyes?

09:53 - What is actually a safe haven asset today?

11:50 - Industry performance update

15:15 - Git's trend following perspective on fixed income

17:25 - Trend following performance numbers

21:39 - What you can expect from trend following during a crisis period

30:31 - What we can learn from the current economic events

34:27 - Key insights to achieving diversification

40:40 - Achieving better performance through trend predictors

45:01 - How CTAs interpret diversification in a unique way

50:03 - Are we experiencing more dispersion today than previously?

57:57 - The symbiotic relation between time and price in a trend following strategy

01:09:43 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU149: Risk, Return, Repeat: The Portable Alpha Revival ft. Razvan Remsing & Alan Dunne

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Today, we’re diving into the world of portable alpha and how it can really shake up your investment game. Alan Dunne and I are chatting with Razvan Remsing from Aspect Capital, who shares that this concept isn’t new but is gaining traction again as allocators look for ways to make their portfolios work harder. With everything going on in the markets, it’s essential to think about how different strategies can fit together, especially in a world where traditional asset allocations might not cut it anymore. We’ll explore the benefits of a multi-asset approach and how CTAs can play a crucial role in managing risk while seeking out returns.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Razvan on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

01:28 - Introduction to Razvan Remsing and Aspect Capital

06:50 - A critical time for portable alpha products

18:25 - The evolution of the sophistication of investors

25:44 - Why trend following is the magic sauce to your portfolio

33:07 - Are investors sleeping on portable alpha strategies?

37:07 - The state of the CTA space from a global macro perspective

45:14 - The total portfolio approach

52:48 - Razvan's perspective on replication strategies

58:14 - Key advice for working with clients

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI342: From Trend Following to Super Determinism ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 05 Apr 2025 07:30:00 +0100

Together with Richard Brennan, we’ll explore how current market uncertainties are shaping investor sentiment and prompting a massive shift in how we think about financial systems. As we navigate through some heavy topics, we also touch on the importance of maintaining a disciplined approach in a world where noise can easily drown out the signals. Expect insights on the evolving landscape of trading, where we emphasize the necessity of aligning with processes rather than predictions. Join us as we unpack these ideas and their implications for both our trading philosophy and our understanding of the market dynamics at play.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:24 - What has caught our attention recently?

12:58 - The damage of leveraged ETF products

15:38 - Reflecting on the trend following performance of Q1

25:18 - Industry performance numbers

26:42 - Super determinism - how it impacts our trading

41:59 - The relationship between science, trend following and the universe

55:36 - Understanding complex adaptive systems as a trend follower

01:13:36 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

UGO01: Reflexive Markets, Real-Time Risk: The Dawn of the 0DTE Era ft. Mike Green

Wed, 02 Apr 2025 18:00:00 +0100

In the premiere of U Got Options, Cem Karsan is joined by Mike Green for an unfiltered, high-conviction conversation straight from the floor of the CBOE. Together, they dive deep into the explosive growth of 0DTE options - now driving over 60% of S&P volume - and unpack how this shift is quietly rewiring market reflexivity, volatility dynamics, and the path of dispersion. With stories from the pits and sharp macro takeaways, this episode sets the tone for a series that goes beyond the headlines to decode the real forces shaping today’s markets. Raw. Insightful. Essential.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - Introduction to Mike Green

07:39 - How and why 0DTE options have changed the investing landscape

17:23 - Implied volatility is changing - what does it mean for investors?

25:18 - How periods of relative stability impact investor behaviour

31:03 - The unwind of passives - is the system under pressure?

39:51 - What are prices actually telling us?

43:31 - Why this cycle might be different

48:52 - What makes a long lasting investor?

54:17 - A deep dive into passive flows

57:18 - Individualism in investing - are we becoming too separated?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI341: Nothing Good Happens Below the 200-Day Moving Average ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 29 Mar 2025 04:30:00 +0100

Alan Dunne and Mark Rzepczynski tackle the current market vibes, focusing on how factors like the 200-day moving average can shift market sentiment and affect portfolio strategies. As they navigate through the choppy waters of market performance, they discuss the importance of understanding uncertainty versus risk and how it impacts decision-making for both individual investors and managers alike. There’s also an exploration of how curiosity plays a crucial role for fund managers in adapting to ever-changing market dynamics. Join us for an insightful discussion on making sense of today's investment landscape.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:09 - Industry performance update

06:22 - How markets and managers respond to tariffs

09:39 - Are we talking ourselves into a recession?

12:55 - Why the distinction between risk and uncertainty is important

16:26 - What is price telling us about market noise?

24:06 - How quant traders should approach uncertainty

28:59 - How the current economic landscape shapes systematic trading

31:52 - Feedback loops, reaction functions and monetary policy

36:05 - Advice for dealing with uncertainty as an investor

41:36 - Curiosity as a characteristic in fund managers

50:30 - Are quants more curious than discretionary traders?

53:55 - Mark's perspective on portable alpha

58:33 - All you need is equity exposure?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL36: Democracy, Money, and the Central Bank - A Risky Balance ft. Leah Rose Downey

Wed, 26 Mar 2025 02:00:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Leah Downey, Junior Research Fellow at St. John’s College Cambridge and author of the new book Our Money: Monetary Policy as If Democracy Matters. Independent central banks are thought to be necessary to prevent politicians using monetary policy to influence elections and to avoid dangerously high levels of inflation. Is this really correct? Is it really healthy for a democracy to allocate so much power to a very small group of unelected people? Why is monetary policy considered ‘too complicated’ for politicians when equally complex areas like energy and defence are not? Is more uncertainty in monetary policy actually better for long-run economic stability? We tackle all these questions as we explore Dr. Downey’s view that the way we govern central banks needs to change.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Learn more about Leah on her website and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Leah Rose Downey

08:36 - A comic flimsy ground

10:34 - Examples of the tension between legislators and Fed

15:21 - Legislators have become a weak economic muscle

19:32 - The complexity of tax policy

25:19 - A better way to manage a central bank

32:08 - The monetary system is like a set of pipes

34:00 - Why efficiency is not always the top value

37:42 - The core philosophy behind Downey's project

40:42 - Why there is a need for a rechartering discussion

44:34 - Should the US economic system be more democratic?

50:20 - "To sustain a democracy over time, the future must be uncertain"

53:55 - Investors should take democratic politics more seriously

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI340: ETFs, Size, and the Commodity Problem ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 22 Mar 2025 07:00:00 +0100

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne and I take a step back - and a step forward - by exploring 125 years of hard-earned market wisdom, courtesy of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook, the definitive source of long-term asset class performance. What does this rich dataset tell us about equities, bonds, diversification, and the underrated role of patience in investing? And how relevant are these lessons for investors navigating today’s high-concentration markets, stubborn inflation, and the potential cracks in the classic 60/40 portfolio?

But that’s not all - we also dive into one of the most overlooked challenges facing systematic trend followers today: capacity constraints, especially in commodities. Drawing on Quantica’s latest research, we examine why commodities have historically been critical to CTA performance, how liquidity limits silently erode returns as strategies scale, and why the explosive growth of trend following ETFs may come at a hidden cost investors rarely see.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:41 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:14 - A new era for Germany?

10:02 - The ETF space is on fire

11:21 - The Nordic countries are on a roll

12:18 - Dunne's global macro perspective

21:39 - Industry performance update

27:07 - An analysis of the Global Investment Returns Yearbook

34:29 - Why are expected returns so far off real returns in the Pension Fund space?

41:07 - The cycle of returns

46:07 - When trend following hits capacity

53:56 - Why Niels is concerned about new replication products

58:52 - Can trading few markets actually provide more diversification than trading many markets?

01:03:40 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU148: CTAs - The Good, The Bad, and The Misunderstood ft. Rob Carver, Graham Robertson and Yoav Git

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 10:00:00 +0100

Today, we’re diving deep into the world of CTAs and their role in investment portfolios. We discuss the balance between focusing on a single asset class versus a multi-asset approach, emphasizing that different asset classes offer unique utilities to investors. Our guests share insights from their experiences, highlighting the importance of tailored execution strategies and how technology can enhance trading performance. We also explore the growing interest from major players like Fidelity and BlackRock in trend-following strategies, raising questions about the future of CTAs in institutional portfolios. Join us as we unpack these themes and share our thoughts on the evolving landscape of systematic trading.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Graham on LinkedIn.

Follow Yoav on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

04:02 - Introduction to Yoav Git

06:16 - The background behind Graham, Rob and Yoav's relationship

12:15 - What is common about people working at Man AHL?

15:47 - Should you focus on single or multi asset classes?

24:58 - The state and outlook for fixed income and

29:47 - Liquidity and how it plays a role in alternative markets

36:09 - Are investors misunderstanding liquidity?

37:28 - How do you actually measure and think about liquidity?

39:50 - Why are CTAs not widely represented in portfolio?

49:14 - How to understand and master execution

58:01 - Research and technology in systematic trading

01:02:36 - "My love for you is like a magnitude 6 earthquake, your sharpe ratio makes me tremble in size"

01:05:00 - Are we at a turning point for trend following?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI339: CTAs vs ETFs: The Showdown That Could Change Everything ft. Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel

Sat, 15 Mar 2025 10:00:00 +0100

Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel joins us to talk about the current state of global markets and the pivotal changes affecting our industry. We’re all feeling the shift in dynamics, and we’re here to unpack how that impacts our investing approaches. From the rise of new ETFs to the ongoing debate about the future of managed futures, we’ll cover it all. So grab your headphones and get ready for some straight talk on trends, volatility, and what it means for all of us as investors.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Tom on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:11 - Industry performance update

14:30 - Wild moves in markets

16:55 - Trump dumps on Trump trade

26:23 - A wealth of products - is it just a phase?

35:16 - The developments in the CTA space

36:21 - Are we trying to engineer the impossible?

41:45 - The pros and cons of inflection points vs short term models

50:28 - Why do CTAs replicate the way they do?

57:36 - Are the new ETFs threatening the CTA franchise?

01:01:56 - Discussing performance in the CTA space

01:09:22 - The use of QIS strategies in trend following

01:13:52 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO29: What Every Investor Should Know About Valuations ft. David Giroux

Wed, 12 Mar 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Leveraged loans combined with treasuries create a solid strategy for navigating today’s fixed income market. These two asset classes work like a peanut butter and jelly sandwich, balancing each other out—leveraged loans shine when interest rates rise, while treasuries thrive when rates drop. In our chat today with David Giroux, portfolio manager at T. Rowe Price, we dive into how this mix helps manage risk and enhance returns in uncertain market conditions. Giroux shares his insights on the current investment landscape, emphasizing the importance of evaluating management quality and capital allocation strategies. Join us as we unpack these ideas and explore what they mean for the future of investing.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

SI338: Politics, Markets & Power Plays: An Unfiltered Look ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 08 Mar 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Together with Cem Karsan, we take a serious look at how the shifting political landscape and economic pressures are impacting global markets. We discuss the implications of a potential (engineered) recession and what it means for various asset classes, especially in relation to current U.S. policies. With the conversation turning to Europe, we analyze the region's military rearmament and its potential effects on the global balance of power. We also touch on the evolving dynamics regarding Turkey's economic challenges and geopolitical significance. Buckle up for a straightforward discussion filled with insights and practical implications for investors navigating this complex landscape.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:40 - We are at a populism crossroads

07:09 - Industry performance update

09:02 - The current state and outlook for the global economy

21:03 - The absurdity of lowering yields to maintain a strong dollar

28:47 - The Mar-a-Lago accord - realistic or pure speculation?

35:42 - Are we seeing a new new world order?

42:20 - How the TSMC deal with the US will impact the conflict between Taiwan and China

50:28 - A perfect storm for the Turkish economy

57:20 - The importance of Turkey's position and military power

58:49 - Oil is in a weird spot at the moment

01:03:00 - Could extreme market drops cause policy changes?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM80: Doomsday Clock Ticks: Are We Close to a Monetary Shift? ft. Adam Rozencwajg

Wed, 05 Mar 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Today Cem Karsan and I are diving into a pretty intense topic today: the looming potential for a monetary regime change that feels like it's right around the corner. We're talking to Adam Rozencwajg about how the shifts in global commodity dynamics, particularly in natural resources like oil and gas, are becoming a lot clearer as supply constraints tighten up. It's all about recognizing the signs, and we believe that the next six to nine months will be crucial for investors looking to ride this wave. We’re also throwing around some serious thoughts on how geopolitical factors are impacting these markets, especially regarding energy security. So grab a seat, because we're about to unpack why you should be paying attention to these developing trends and what they could mean for the future of commodities.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:32 - A big picture framework - what has changed since our last conversation?

09:32 - Why are commodities so cheap today?

17:03 - Why is now the moment to go long?

31:04 - We are in a huge carry trade

47:04 - Commodities are taking over another role

51:15 - Where are the greatest opportunities in rare metals?

58:40 - It will end badly for millennials

01:04:09 - Conspiracy theories in the gold industry

01:06:55 - The outlook for the U.S energy market

01:14:02 - Europe is in a difficult energy spot

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI337: How Best to "Replicate" Managed Futures Returns ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 01 Mar 2025 10:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Katy Kaminski helps us explore the latest trends in managed futures and how different approaches to replication can impact performance and correlation. We explore the pros and cons of index versus mechanical replication, highlighting how each method reacts differently in various market conditions. Plus, we touch on the most recent developments in the ETF space and how they're reshaping access to CTAs, but also question if all of the new products are truly worthy of the "CTA" label. Stick around as we break down these ideas and share insights that can help shape your investment strategies.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:50 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:09 - Industry performance update

13:06 - Q1, Rick: Has Katy done any work on Co-Movement Factor and "offsides" systems?

18:12 - Q1.2, Rick: Katy's work shows us the dispersion between "slow" and "fast" systems w/ an optimal window of 10mo: How does this "optimal window" differ by year?

25:54 - Q2, Brian: Are there more individual investors than institutional investors?

28:43 - Q2.2: Are investors holding the ETF “long term”, or do they “chase performance”?

32:25 - Q3, Niels: How should we think about future returns in trend following?

36:24 - The beta of trend following and how to access it

44:05 - Combing index- and mechanical replication

50:58 - The pitfalls of replication strategies

52:32 - What does managed futures/CTAs mean to Katy?

59:14 - Why is mechanical replication often simplified versions of a full trend following system?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL35: The New Age of Economic Warfare: Are We Ready? ft. Edward Fishman

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Edward Fishman, a world expert on the modern art of economic warfare. Edward is author of the new book Chokepoints: American Power In The Age of Economic Warfare. He currently teaches at Columbia University and prior to that advised the US Secretary of State, Joints Chiefs of Staff and Treasury Department on the deployment of economic sanctions. We discuss the details of how the US uses its dominant position in the world’s financial markets and technology software to pressure countries like Iran, Russia and China. Most importantly this episode explains why these tools used to influence these chokepoints are permanent and are starting to form the contours of the new global economy that will persist for the coming decades.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Edward on X and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Edward Fishman

08:24 - The failures of economic warfare

14:04 - What Stuart Levy can teach us about economic

19:26 - Who even want to work at banks nowadays?

22:10 - The most successful sanction in modern times

27:02 - The dangers of sanctions, export controls and tarifs

32:56 - What is a denial order and why is it such a powerful tool?

37:52 - What is the entity list and what is it used for?

38:55 - Technology chokepoints and the challenges they pose

46:08 - The secret to the American success

48:29 - Is the price cap on Russian oil actually working as intended?

53:31 - The oil market is changing

55:17 - Where is the global economy heading?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI336: How to Invest in Turbulent Times? ft. Graham Robertson

Sat, 22 Feb 2025 07:00:00 +0100

With global market dynamics shifting rapidly and geopolitical noise reaching new heights, how can investors adapt and thrive? In this episode, we explore why an adaptive approach is crucial for navigating today’s turbulent financial landscape. Our conversation delves into the challenges investors face when competing against dominant market players and how trend-following strategies can shine in times of crisis. We also examine the often-overlooked disconnect between price and value - and how this mismatch might actually present fresh opportunities. Join us for an insightful discussion with Graham Robertson from Man AHL, as we unpack these critical insights and explore why trend following remains a powerful tool for generating "crisis alpha." Buckle up for a fascinating conversation!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Graham on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:11 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:27 - Are kids too worried about the state of the world?

05:58 - Our current observations on trend

10:54 - How to capture the moves in the European energy markets

13:05 - Valuable insights on alternative markets

17:11 - Are alternative markets trending better?

23:02 - The state of liquidity in the industry

25:52 - How Man AHL approaches crypto

29:47 - Industry performance update

31:42 - Q1, Rick: Is a cross-over system typically the primary tool for Trend?

37:14 - The origins of breakout systems

41:36 - The taxi driver problem

46:15 - Using trend as a alternative defensive strategy

50:27 - Are investors expecting more from trend following?

53:35 - Defensive equities and the impact of Deepseek

57:59 - The disconnect between price and value

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI14: Behind the Scenes of a Crypto Hedge Fund ft. Michael Hall & Anatoly Crachlilov

Wed, 19 Feb 2025 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Anatoly Crachilov and Michaell Hall from Nickel Digital, a prominent London-based crypto hedge fund. Anatoly (CEO) and Michael (CIO) founded the company in 2019 with an initial focus on in-house arbitrage and basis trading strategies. Over the years, their business model has evolved and adapted to the fast-changing world of digital assets. Today, Nickel Digital operates as a multi-strategy, multi-manager setup with more than $250 million in AUM, making it one of the largest and longest-standing crypto hedge funds globally.

Anatoly, Michael and Moritz speak about the opportunities and challenges of operating a multi-PM digital asset hedge fund, how they differ from traditional asset hedge fund pod shops, and how the attract and find new PMs to work with them.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Follow Anatoly on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Introduction to Nickel Digital and how they found their way to crypto

08:10 - A trip down memory crypto lane

12:25 - Why is the basis still so wide on crypto?

15:07 - The state of alpha in the crypto space

18:23 - What kind of portfolio does Nickel Digital run?

19:56 - How they take advantage of automation to carry out a 24/7 365 trading strategy

22:24 - How they manage the managers

25:22 - How they approach netting cost

27:40 - Their process for paying managers

30:59 - Their manager onboarding process

38:41 - Why traders make more money at Nickel Digital than anywhere else

40:52 - What is the average sharpe ratio in the crypto space?

43:19 - The tech backbone - how Nickel Digital is connected to exchanges

46:08 - FTX collapse - The most stressful period for their business

49:46 - How they manage price and risk in 24 hours/day markets

54:06 - How crypto differ from regular markets

57:09 - The pitfalls of trading crypto

01:02:35 - What is their long term vision for Nickel Digital?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI335: Trend Following or Mean Reversion: What Works Best When? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 15 Feb 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Join us for a fascinating and in-depth conversation with Rob Carver, where we’ll discuss the current state of gold, the impact of rising borrowing costs on futures pricing, and how these elements intertwine with market trends. Along the way, we’ll tackle listener questions that challenge the status quo, digging into everything from fees in the hedge fund world to the implications of recent political shifts. It's a jam-packed session for anyone looking to get a clearer picture of the investment landscape today.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What on earth is going on with gold?

04:58 - The hidden fees of the hedge fund world

11:25 - Industry performance update

15:00 - Q1, David: Since Rob's book was published, several multi-asset leveraged ETFs have become available. Do you think these products have a place in a long-term portfolio? If so, what kind of allocation would you consider reasonable?

21:17 - Q2, Carlos: Imagine a systematically traded trend following account starting with $100k across 10 markets. Over time, the account grows to $200k. Would it generally be “better” to split the capital into two separate and different trading strategies (each trading 10 instruments), or to add more instruments/markets to the existing strategy for greater market diversification?

24:49 - Q3, Chris: Does the use of ETFs to backtest Rob’s trend following strategies provide an accurate representation of performance?

29:41 - Q4, Steve: Any pointers on how to use predictive modelling techniques (linear regression, etc) and how would we combine it with your forecast scaling framework. Also can you comment on potential objective functions to use?

32:54 - Q5, Vik: Once you’ve included established risk premia rules like trend, carry, and fundamental valuations, do most research efforts by experienced teams in big and small firms amount to just fancy branding exercises? In a competitive environment where everyone is working with more or less the same data, is it possible to meaningfully move the needle?

38:19 - Q6, Andrew: Approximately about a year and a half ago or more you published on X that you were making a discretionary trade increasing your bond position. I am Just curious how that trade worked out and if you think, in retrospect, that discretionary call was correct? And are there any learnings for the rest of us about when to know if a discretionary call makes sense?

40:33 - Q7, Paul: What is the benefits/drawbacks of having an absolute strategy, that just looked at if the post returns were positive or negative (rather than relative to the performance of the asset class)?

43:12 - Q8, Samuel: What does the research say (if any) of trend following strategies that don't rely on lagging indicators? To your knowledge has anyone done any studies using the current state of monthly/quarterly/yearly candles for a trend following system?

48:41 - Q9, CryptoCaptain: How to handle missing data when contracts get delisted and then re-listed. Chatgpt suggested that I use Co-integration and Error Correction Models to fill the missing data because the larger contract data is available. What are other things I can try out?

52:01 - Key insights from Quantica on position sizing

55:14 - What should we be paying for risk?

59:10 - Should you still optimize for sharpe?

01:02:10 - Trends and Reversions in Financial Markets

01:09:43 - The economic consequences of Donald Trump

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO28: Why Hedge Funds Still Matter ft. Alexander de Bruin

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 07:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alexander de Bruin, Head of Fund Research at Edmond de Rothschild, joins Alan Dunne to discuss the art and science of selecting managers and building portfolios of alternatives. Alexander shares insights from his background in convertible bond trading and how it has shaped his approach to allocating capital. The conversation explores the rapid growth of private markets, with a focus on the current opportunities in private credit. They also delve into Alexander's framework for constructing hedge fund portfolios, examining the role of multi-manager, multi-strategy funds compared to other diversifying strategies. Alexander provides a behind-the-scenes look at his manager due diligence process, including his unique approach of sitting on the trading floor with hedge fund managers to gain a deeper understanding of their strategies.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Alexander de Bruin

09:08 - The clients and portfolios that Edmond de Rothschild

13:24 - Should the 60/40 portfolio be revamped?

15:45 - de Bruin's approach to implementing new strategies

19:46 - How de Bruin deal with the paranoia of something going wrong

22:33 - Is there a place for multi-strat approaches?

25:14 - The challenges of managing risk as a multi-strat manager

26:59 - How hedge funds deal with portfolio constraints

29:25 - Opportunities and risks in private markets

35:37 - How high yield portfolios are allocated

37:31 - Which managers do they prefer?

39:49 - How to assess hedge funds as a manager and vice versa

44:51 - How de Bruin uses his backgammon experience when selecting managers

47:54 - Move the managers to where there is more edge

50:05 - Where does the disappointment in hedge fund allocation stem from?

53:36 - Are hedge funds becoming more open to high volatility strategies?

54:49 - What are Edmond de Rothschild looking for in managers?

56:41 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI334: Why Quants Might Be Your Best Bet ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 08 Feb 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Together with Nick Baltas, we're diving deep into systematic investing to discuss why strategies like trend following is a hidden gem in the current (crazy) economic and geo-political landscape. We touch on recent trends, the implications of AI in investing, and how these dynamics can impact our portfolios. We also discuss the costs of rebalancing and the potential pitfalls when it comes to fixed-weight portfolios, how the trust in the financial system and economic data is starting to fade rapidly and much more. Stay tuned, there is a lot to unpack.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:40 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:26 - A mini crash in the crypto space

11:24 - Breath vs Size of Crypto Investors

14:24 - The US Fixed Income policy is changing

16:07 - Industry performance update

19:21 - Reviewing current trends in 2025

23:46 - How people react to trend following as a defensive strategy

28:51 - What are the most popular risk mitigation strategies?

30:53 - An alternative way of allocating away from bonds and into "safe" equities

38:13 - The trust in the system is fading...rapidly

46:53 - Why price might be more accurate when using trend following

49:42 - The unintended impact of rebalancing

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO27: Unlocking Wealth: Insights from UBS's CIO Mark Haefele

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 09:30:00 +0100

Mark Haefele, CIO of Global Wealth Management at UBS, shares valuable insights on the evolving landscape of investing amidst unprecedented government intervention in the economy. He emphasizes that understanding the role of government spending and its impact on market dynamics is crucial for today's investors. The conversation explores the distinction between managing wealth and managing investments, highlighting the importance of adopting a mindset of abundance rather than scarcity. Haefele also explains the significance of long-term structural trends, such as demographics and digitalization, which shape investment decisions. Throughout the discussion, he offers practical advice for navigating the complexities of investing in a world where macroeconomic factors increasingly influence outcomes.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Mark on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:30 - Introduction to Mark Haefele

05:13 - Behind the scenes of Haefele's job

06:46 - The key takeaways from Haefele's book

09:01 - The difference between managing your wealth and managing your investment

11:16 - How has the investing world changed over the years?

14:50 - Is now a culmination of previous crises?

16:58 - The 5 structural trends of the global economy and how it relates to government spending

19:58 - How they apply the 5 structural trends in a broad sense

22:19 - The most important thing you can do for your portfolio

24:09 - Big problems are big money

25:08 - A historical perspective of the economy

27:43 - Are we moving into an era of greater economic intervention?

30:11 - Was Covid19 the beginning of a new era for inflation?

34:07 - Why private markets are crucial for your portfolio

37:39 - Tips to avoid investing on trends that are peaking

42:41 - Overcoming the behavioural challenges as an investor

47:04 - Half of the battle is mental

49:55 - Advice to become a great investor

52:16 - Understanding your relationship to money

54:31 - Practical ideas for investing with ESG

57:25 - Haefele's perspective on US international relationships

01:00:15 - Key advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI333: Convexity - The Trend Following Game Changer! ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 23:30:00 +0100

Most investors focus on returns, but what about the shape of those returns? Today, Rich and I explore the often overlooked concept of convexity - a game-changing principle in trend following that helps us thrive in unpredictable markets. Inspired by insights from our recent guest, Dave Dredge, we break down why mastering convexity is key to cutting losses early, riding big winners, and staying ahead of market turbulence.

If you’re serious about protecting and growing your portfoli - while making smarter, more systematic decisions - this episode is a must-listen. Join us for a deep dive into the mechanics of risk, reward, and the powerful edge convexity can give your portfolio!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:49 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:20 - Industry performance update

11:10 - Why does convexity matter for trend following?

36:13 - What do we actually mean by convexity?

42:04 - Sharpe world - the pitfalls of today's economy

52:30 - Why risk and volatility can feel like the same thing

56:08 - The core of trend following

58:22 - Why open trade equity makes no sense for managers

01:00:03 - The business of trend following

01:01:37 - The exponential potential of trend following

01:08:05 - The times have changed - why is trend following more important than ever?

01:11:22 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM79: How Global Economic Dynamics Shape Our Future ft. Matthew Klein

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 10:00:00 +0100

Today, we explore the intricate dynamics of global trade and economics, highlighting the central thesis of Matt Klein's book, "Trade Wars or Class Wars." Klein argues that the common perception of trade as a zero-sum game is fundamentally flawed; instead, he emphasizes that positive-sum solutions exist, benefiting all parties involved. The conversation explores the impact of internal dynamics within countries, particularly focusing on how these dynamics affect international relations and economic outcomes. Additionally, we discuss the current state of the global economy, rising bond yields, and the potential consequences of immigration policies on labor markets and housing. We invite listeners to rethink traditional economic narratives and consider how collective actions can lead to improved outcomes for everyone.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

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Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 - Introduction to Matthew Klein

05:32 - Expanding the definition of trade

13:45 - The dynamic between growth and productivity

17:04 - The state of the German economy and how it could be improved

22:42 - Klein's perspective on the development of the bond markets

28:49 - Klein's outlook for inflation and interest rates

34:36 - Are we approaching a consumer credit crisis?

38:49 - Is there a productivity boom in sight?

42:25 - Will the deportation become a growth choker?

44:45 - Are we seeing a slow down in housing and rent?

50:10 - What could be done to save the dollar?

59:36 - Advice for other investors

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Disclaimer

SI332: Market Turbulence: How to Adapt to Regime Changes in Investing ft. Alan Dunne & Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 25 Jan 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Today, we explore the complexities of current market dynamics, emphasizing the heightened levels of uncertainty stemming from recent regime changes. Mark Rzepczynski shares insights on how this uncertainty can influence investment behavior and market trends, highlighting the importance for investors to adapt their strategies in response to these shifts. The discussion touches on the implications of fluctuating correlations and volatility, particularly for systematic and trend-following strategies. We also explore how the intricate nature of financial markets as complex systems can lead to nonlinear reactions to shocks, making it crucial for traders to consider both measurable risks and the non-measurable uncertainties that can affect their models. The episode wraps up with reflections on the role of institutional arrangements and how they can impact market outcomes in a rapidly changing environment.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - A flurry of activities

04:05 - The state of VIX and how newspapers and media measure uncertainty

09:11 - How do trend followers take advantage of the uncertainty in markets?

12:50 - What are the components of the regime shift?

16:04 - The implications of the regime shift

17:57 - Industry performance update

19:21 - The state of bond markets from an uncertainty perspective

21:16 - Do indices differentiate between different kinds of uncertainty?

24:45 - How the Trump administration contributes to increased economic uncertainty

28:58 - Are we entering a new, golden age?

33:31 - Do other strategies need adjustment to adapt to the uncertainty?

37:31 - Anything is possible

44:01 - Mastering the balance between convergent and divergent strategies

51:51 - How the banking sector could become less stable the coming years

56:05 - Analyzing economic shocks using a complex systems framework

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

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3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM 78: The Market Risk Nobody’s Watching ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

Wed, 22 Jan 2025 08:00:00 +0100

Today, we take you into the complexities of the current financial landscape, emphasizing the crucial theme of positioning in an environment marked by rising interest rates and shifting market dynamics. We explore how recent structured product issuance is significantly impacting market structure, particularly in the U.S., where the volume of callable bonds and equity-linked products has surged. They highlight the risks associated with reliance on historical correlations, which may not hold in times of market stress, and the implications for investors navigating these turbulent waters. The conversation also touches on the potential for a significant monetary regime shift, akin to what was seen in the late '90s, driven by geopolitical tensions and domestic economic policies. You will gain valuable insights into how to recognize and adapt to these evolving risks, to become well prepared for the challenges ahead.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Read David's report here.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:34 - A quick catch up since last conversation

02:13 - Dredge's key takeaways from 2024

08:58 - When did things really start to move for Dredge?

15:41 - Cem's analysis of the recent global macro environment

22:51 - What has driven the S&P volatility?

24:44 - Positioning is all that matters

29:31 - "Correlation is a bitch"

33:31 - Portfolio Manager in legal trouble for following an ESG strategy

37:57 - The difference between credit and vol investors

42:07 - The good outcome is a recession

45:36 - All the things that you are not worried about is driving your performance

48:49 - The state of interest rates and FX trading

57:24 - Is the Fed losing its grip on the economy?

01:03:46 - The outlook of markets - where are we heading?

01:09:18 - Risk is on your balance sheet, not in the future

01:16:14 - Dredge's perspective on structural products issuance

01:27:22 - The recession might come sooner than we think

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI331: Crafting the Perfect Investment Portfolio in 2025 ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 18 Jan 2025 03:15:00 +0100

Today, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of investment strategies, emphasizing the critical need for diversification in portfolios. With a particular focus on the German economy's challenges, we highlight how geopolitical factors and shifting market dynamics are reshaping investment approaches. We explore the potential implications of rising bond yields and the importance of incorporating trend-following strategies to mitigate risks associated with traditional asset classes. We also touch on the necessity for investors to rethink their allocations to adapt to an uncertain future, moving beyond outdated correlations and assumptions. As we examine the perspectives of notable figures in finance, the episode serves as a timely reminder of the importance of strategic asset allocation in navigating today's complex market environment.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:55 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:41 - Why has the German economy changed so much?

10:20 - A world of unexpected political events

13:57 - How can there be a beta if managers are so different?

16:06 - The state of the global macro environment

25:10 - Industry performance update

28:10 - Are investors relying too much on past performance?

35:01 - Are we seeing signs of a catastrophic bubble?

40:14 - 2025 - a deja vu to 1995?

42:24 - Advice for constructing a robust trend following portfolio

54:49 - What do trend following portfolios have in common with race cars?

01:00:34 - Is ESG ruining portfolio performance?

01:03:01 - The fashion has changed

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI13: The Art of Continuous Trading: Mastering Market Dynamics ft. Bill Gebhardt

Wed, 15 Jan 2025 07:30:00 +0100

Bill Gebhardt from 10Dynamics discusses the intriguing intersection of market efficiency and systematic trading strategies. He emphasizes the idea that while traditional views suggest markets are efficient, many hedge funds continue to find success using price-based strategies that should theoretically not work. This paradox leads to a fascinating exploration of the psychological aspects of trading, particularly how human behavior can create opportunities for systematic traders. Gebhardt shares insights on the operational complexities of running a nearly continuous trading process, utilizing intraday data, and employing a diverse range of signals. The conversation explores the risks of underfitting versus overfitting in trading models, ultimately advocating for a strategy that embraces empirical success without excessive optimization.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Bill on X.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:17 - Introduction to Bill Gebhardt

06:35 - No pain, no gain

08:40 - Why are they called 10Dynamics?

10:08 - What is their philosophy behind how markets work?

12:24 - Are the signals that they run based on trend following?

13:47 - How they handle the operational complexity of their system

18:15 - How they assess the validity of their data

20:39 - Exploring the technical details behind the execution of their system

22:39 - How they approach trading times

25:07 - Combining short and long term trading

26:52 - How they avoid overfitting and underfitting

30:58 - How Gebhardt implements his experience from the energy space

33:54 - How many markets do they trade?

35:50 - Accessing the domestic futures markets

36:56 - Why are single name equities so special to 10Dynamics?

41:08 - How they approach VIX futures

43:39 - Their perspective on replication strategies

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI330: Yield Storm Ahead: Preparing for a New Era ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 11 Jan 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Together with Cem Karsan we take the pulse of the evolving landscape investors are faced with amidst rising interest rates and market volatility. A key takeaway is the recognition of structural changes in bond markets, with the potential for significantly higher yields impacting investment strategies. We explore the implications of current geopolitical dynamics, including Trump's perhaps surprising approach to China, his expansionary agenda and how it may shape market expectations moving forward. We also address the challenges of navigating a world where traditional hedging strategies in markets like fixed income are becoming increasingly difficult. With insights into market sentiment and potential counter-trend rallies, this episode provides a thought-provoking look at the complexities facing investors right now.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:19 - What has caught our attention recently?

06:39 - Industry performance update

08:34 - Long term skew in vol markets is causing trouble

13:41 - Approaching OPEX - what is in sight?

21:28 - Does a strong S&P500 performance indicate an incoming crisis?

24:08 - Are we approaching a counter trend rally?

26:33 - It's getting hard to hedge

35:16 - Investors are long without realizing it

38:34 - We need a shadow Fed President

43:23 - We are in a leadership vacuum

47:58 - Early signs of improvement in China?

55:31 - Will Elon Musk change the narrative around China?

59:02 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU147: How to Craft a Rich Life Beyond Money ft. William Green

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 05:45:00 +0100

William Green, author of the book "Richer, Wiser, Happier", returns to the podcast for an eye opening conversation centered around the complexities of investing and the importance of building a rich life beyond mere financial success. We explore the idea that true wealth encompasses autonomy, meaningful relationships, and personal growth, rather than just monetary accumulation. Throughout the discussion, William shares lessons learned from interviewing some of the greatest investors, emphasizing the significance of self-awareness and understanding one’s biases in decision-making. We also touch on the current landscape of investing, including the dominance of U.S. equities and the implications of artificial intelligence in the financial world. By weaving in personal anecdotes and stories, William illustrate how to navigate uncertainty and position oneself for long-term success while maintaining a focus on what truly matters in life.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow William on X and read his book.

Episode Timestamps:

01:42 - Catching up since our last conversation

07:22 - The importance of having connection and belonging along the path

13:51 - The power of friendships

20:21 - A key component to achieve success

22:20 - The pitfalls of becoming successful

26:47 - How psychology influences investment decisions and how to overcome biases

34:23 - Common biases among successful investors

41:10 - How we can broaden our perspective to include happiness in our perception of wealth

51:45 - Advice to become a healthy successful investor

56:58 - How to set yourself up to survive economic downturns

01:05:00 - How successful investors avoid being taken out of the game

01:11:15 - How successful investors use AI in their investment strategies

01:15:31 - How we can use storytelling to demystify complex financial topics

01:25:25 - Green's advice for other investors

01:31:53 - How different will the future actually be from the past?

01:38:57 - How do you identify ideas and lessons that really matters

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI329: CTAs: Innovation Meets Legacy & the BlackRock Effect ft. Andrew Beer & Tom Wrobel

Sat, 04 Jan 2025 06:45:00 +0100

Together with Andrew Beer and Tom Wrobel, we dive deep into the evolving landscape of managed futures and CTAs, highlighting the critical need for a narrative shift to better communicate their value to investors. Andrew and Tom discuss the challenges faced by allocators in understanding the unique benefits of trend-following strategies, especially amidst a backdrop of changing market dynamics. They explore the implications of BlackRock's recent move to launch an actively managed manager ETF, which could significantly impact how managed futures are perceived and allocated within investment portfolios. The conversation also touches on the potential for new ESG-compliant products that could attract investors reluctant to engage with traditional commodity exposure. With insights into the current market environment and the importance of adaptability, this episode provides valuable perspectives for anyone interested in systematic investing and the future of CTAs.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

01:20 - Our expectations going into 2025

07:00 - What to do when bonds are collapsing

10:21 - Industry performance update

11:49 - A deep dive into indices

17:36 - The mechanisms behind creating an index

23:13 - What returns can you expect from a CTA replication index?

27:21 - What are the average fees in today's indices?

30:31 - The benefits of replication

34:04 - The drivers of replication strategies

40:50 - How CTA replicators handle inflection points

43:11 - What happens to an index if its underlying model changes

50:21 - Do trend followers in general make big changes to their models?

52:30 - How the AUM landscape has evolved

57:06 - Can you replicate a pod shop?

01:03:02 - Why many allocators are missing out on trend following

01:11:57 - What is going on with Blackrock?

01:15:29 - Big news from Andrew

01:21:05 - The challenges of complying with ESG metrics

01:23:58 - It's all about the narrative

01:26:48 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL34: Democratizing Data: A New Approach for Trustworthy Information ft. Julia Lane

Wed, 01 Jan 2025 07:00:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Julia Lane, Professor at New York University and author of the book Democratizing Our Data: A Manifesto. Dr. Lane is a member of the National AI Research Resource Task Force and has advised the White House on promoting the use of Federal data for evidence building. She believes that the US system collecting data is outdated, inaccurate and unable to reform itself. This includes the data that goes into measures like GDP and unemployment. The current system is also unable to track the impact of AI on the economy. We discuss her proposals including her work to establish a new non-partisan institute to provide accurate and secure data available to everyone.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Julia on LinkedIn and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - Introduction to Julia Lane

03:42 - We need to rethink how we generate trustworthy data

12:49 - How does data collection look like in the U.S?

18:14 - How do we find out what firms are working in artificial intelligence?

24:53 - How Lane believes we can solve the challenges of collecting trustworthy data

30:38 - How you maintain trust from an operational point of view

32:38 - What we can learn from the New Zealand data collection system

35:57 - How confident can we be in the economic data

38:26 - We need a standardised approach to data collection

40:10 - Lane's future plans for solving the challenges of data collection

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI328: Year-End Roundtable: The Future of Trend Following and Market Dynamics (Part 2)

Sat, 28 Dec 2024 06:30:00 +0100

Join us for Part 2 of our Year-End discussion between all of the hosts on the Systematic Investor Series where we debate the trends and themes shaping the investment landscape heading into 2025. The episode highlights the significance of social media and podcasts in increasing awareness of systematic investment strategies, as well as the challenges posed by evolving market dynamics. Key topics include the role of the U.S. dollar under the new Trump administration, the impact of trend-following strategies, and the ongoing debate about replication in managed futures. We will also share our outrageous predictions for 2025, including insights into the potential resurgence of alternative investments and shifts in global economic relations. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

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Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - How social media, podcasts etc. helped us to raise awareness of our products

07:26 - How we decompose risk and uncertainty and how we incorporate it in our thinking

13:20 - The world has gone completely mad

19:30 - The outlook for replication strategies

28:22 - How will the trend following industry look in 5 years?

42:02 - Has the appetite for alternatives destroyed alternatives?

50:16 - Where will the dollar go the coming year?

59:14 - Our outrageous predictions for 2025

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI12: Breaking Rules: Going Beyond Traditional Trend Following ft. Tillmann Sachs & Vishal Sharma

Wed, 25 Dec 2024 12:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Tillmann Sachs and Vishal Sharma from J8 Capital Management, a systematic London-based CTA. The main focus of their discussion is J8’s Global Absolute Return Strategy, which trades several different systems across markets and styles, including carry, arbitrage, and trend following. We also speak about their latest addition to this portfolio, namely the Redwood strategy, which is a short-term model trading some of the world’s most liquid futures markets and works with intraday data that’s sampled every 3 minutes. It’s an interesting conversation with a CTA “plus” – a term Tillmann uses as they employ many strategies away from rules-based trend following.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Tillmann on LinkedIn.

Learn more about J8 Capital.

Episode TimeStamps:

16:16 - Introduction to Tillmann Sachs, Vishal Sharma and J8 Capital Management

04:06 - Why did they start J8 Capital?

05:09 - What got them interested in a systematic approach?

09:12 - The story behind the J8 Global Absolute Return Strategy

13:53 - Multiple different systems or one big system?

16:25 - Why don't they incorporate equities in their strategy?

21:36 - Managing risk in arbitrage strategies

24:44 - Their perspective on going long term VIX

26:34 - How you valuate risk when putting multiple systems together

29:59 - Is the best benchmark for them a multistrat hedge fund?

33:04 - How does Sharma's short term systematic system work?

37:58 - What is Redwood's correlation to the short term traders index?

38:17 - How Sharma is trading the markets

41:17 - How is Sharma's strategy performing?

44:28 - How Sharma runs and maintains a 24 hours a day process

46:36 - The future direction of J8 Capital

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI327: 2024's Biggest Investment & Trend Following Insights (Part 1)

Sat, 21 Dec 2024 10:00:00 +0100

This part 1 of 2 episode features a compelling roundtable discussion among all of our incredible co-hosts here at TopTradersUnplugged, where we reflect on the key takeaways of 2024. The main focus is on the significant return dispersion observed in the trend-following community throughout 2024, where performance varied dramatically among managers. We explore the factors contributing to this dispersion, such as differences in speed, market universe, and the impact of discretionary de-risking strategies. Additionally, we examine the influence of macroeconomic changes, particularly the effects of Federal Reserve policies, on market trends and investor behavior. As the conversation unfolds, we also share insights and personal reflections on our investment strategies and predictions for 2025.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

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Episode TimeStamps:

00:22 - Introduction to the group conversations

02:33 - A trend following recap of 2024

13:07 - A new president - how does it impact geopolitics?

17:21 - What role crowding has played in 2024

24:00 - Do less liquid markets trend more?

32:32 - Have markets become less efficient over time?

40:28 - Are we actually using AI in our work?

46:00 - What was the biggest mistake we learned in 2024?

49:21 - Why have we experienced such a high dispersion in 2024?

57:05 - Wrapping up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM77: Unlocking the Roaring 2020s: Is Bitcoin the New Gold? ft. Ed Yardeni

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to review his Roaring 2020s thesis for the US economy. Ed makes a compelling case for sustained economic growth, driven by rising productivity gains fuelled by technological advancements. The discussion covers expectations for the policy mix under the incoming Trump administration, including how fiscal developments could influence the Federal Reserve's actions. The conversation also examines developments in the bond markets, exploring whether meaningful deficit reductions can keep the bond vigilantes at bay. He shares his optimistic outlook on the stock market, despite elevated valuations, high concentration in the S&P 500 and speculative behaviour in certain areas. Finally, Ed offers his perspective on gold and questions whether Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are merely the modern equivalent of “digital tulips.”

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Ed on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - (Re)Introduction to Ed Yardeni

04:51 - How the incoming U.S. administration will impact the economy

07:55 - Has Trump fought back the bond vigilantes?

10:52 - Was the Fed cut unnecessary?

13:20 - Strange decisions from the Fed

16:14 - Will the Fed be true to their words?

17:57 - Will inflation become sticky?

19:29 - Yardeni's perspective on the neutral rate

22:27 - The roaring 20's scenario

25:46 - What is fuelling the productivity?

30:12 - The data behind productivity

31:58 - Is the U.S industrial advantage part of the productivity story?

33:20 - What can we learn from 80s and 90's productivity boom?

36:42 - How is international policy playing out in the U.S?

40:40 - Yardeni's outlook for the stock market

43:43 - Is a recession unavoidable?

45:40 - What happens to the economy when we enter a recession?

48:27 - Yardeni's perspective on bitcoin

52:19 - Why play with gold when you have crypto?

54:10 - Don't mess with the bond vigilantes

57:42 - Where can you following Yardeni's work?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI326: Volatility and Trends: What 2024 Held for Trend Followers ft. Katy Kaminski

Fri, 13 Dec 2024 11:00:00 +0100

Today, we examine the intriguing dynamics of systematic investing, focusing on the theme of volatility sizing and its implications for trend following strategies. We discuss how volatility often expands during profitable trades, highlighting the importance of managing risk through dynamic sizing compared to static approaches. We explore the interplay between equities and managed futures, emphasizing how these strategies can complement each other while navigating the complexities of correlation risk. As we look ahead to 2025, the conversation touches on broader economic themes, including inflation volatility and its potential impact on investment strategies. With insights from recent research, the episode provides valuable perspectives for investors seeking to understand the evolving landscape of systematic investing.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:13 - Industry performance update

03:48 - Our takeaways from 2024

09:20 - How different speed has performed in different markets

13:25 - Has market correlation been lower than usual this year?

14:15 - Concluding on 2024

15:55 - Interesting news in the ETF space

18:29 - Key takeaways from the Hedge Nordic Roundtable 2024

20:18 - Optimism for the managed futures space?

23:10 - A historical perspective on volatility sizing

30:50 - How different styles of trend following work and perform

35:51 - When is long vol a good strategy to use?

37:41 - The challenges of trend following as a strategy

41:36 - Our perspective on running portable alpha

49:15 - Where does portable alpha sit in a portfolio?

51:59 - Tweaking your trend following portfolio to accommodate equities

54:06 - Thoughts on going into 2025

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM76: Are We Being Deceived by Economic Data? ft. Paul Donovan

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 03:00:00 +0100

Alan Dunne welcomes Paul Donovan, Chief Economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, to this episode for a thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Together, they explore the structural challenges facing Europe and whether the current wave of pessimism is overstated. Paul highlights how data mismeasurement contributes to the gap between perception and reality while acknowledging the hurdles for productivity growth in Europe. They also consider whether comparisons between Europe’s economic trajectory and Japan’s stagnation are valid and discuss the prospects for U.S. growth under President Trump. The conversation also examines the recent inflation cycle, the potential effects of new U.S. tariffs on inflation, and the implications for Federal Reserve policy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Paul on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:28 - Introduction to Paul Donovan

06:02 - The state of the European economy

09:19 - The notion of fairness is changing

13:55 - Can a new economic model emerge?

18:54 - Has Europe become Japanified?

22:21 - Should Europe worry about lagging behind on tech?

29:04 - An economic plague in the UK

34:02 - How can economists address the happiness of the people

38:15 - What have the cost of things stayed high?

44:32 - The potential for supply side economics

49:48 - Why tariffs are inflationary

52:21 - How bad can the tariffs war get?

56:18 - How tariffs could impact interest rates

59:00 - How will the rest of the decade look in terms of growth and inflation?

01:01:30 - Advice for other economists

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI325: Why Adaptive Strategies Matter Now More Than Ever ft. Graham Robertson

Sat, 07 Dec 2024 02:00:00 +0100

Today, together with Graham Robertson of MAN AHL, we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following and its relationship with current market conditions, particularly influenced by central bank actions. We examine how trend followers have navigated recent volatility and the challenges posed by fluctuating interest rate expectations. We highlight the significance of understanding correlation trends among different asset classes and the importance of diversifying strategies in enhancing portfolio resilience. The discussion also touches on the complexities of trend following strategies and the necessity for clearer communication to investors about their benefits. As we explore the evolving landscape of systematic investing, the episode underscores the need for adaptive strategies in an unpredictable economic environment.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:04 - Are single stocks signaling trouble?

05:00 - Major divergence in market performance globally

08:06 - Industry performance update

09:06 - Our key observations from 2024

11:24 - Advice for getting your market capacity right

15:33 - Our thoughts on trading speed

17:14 - Don't get too caught up on specific narratives

18:38 - Industry performance numbers

20:02 - How Idiosyncratic risk works

26:55 - Setting up the optimal defense

28:31 - Don't be scared of "days like that"

32:21 - Troublemakers in the class room

38:58 - TINA is back in global markets - but with a makeover

40:45 - Our thoughts on the upcoming U.S administration

43:37 - How do we get trend following into our portfolios?

48:33 - The challenges of propagating trend following

51:53 - How to approach market capacity the right way

55:34 - Different times call for different markets

58:47 - Accents are causing trouble for AI

01:00:03 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL33: The Soul of Wealth: Behavioral Secrets to a Purposeful Life ft. Daniel Crosby

Wed, 04 Dec 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Dr. Daniel Crosby, New York Times bestselling author and Chief Behavioral Officer at Orion Advisor Solutions. Daniel joins us to discuss his new book - The Soul of Wealth: 50 Reflections on Money and Meaning. We discuss simple actions everyone can take to apply the lessons of behavioral finance to their own investing - actions that have a shockingly large impact on wealth accumulation. Daniel talks about why even the most experienced professional investors might benefit from having a financial advisor and how new research on willpower can help us be more effective investors. We end with an overview of Daniel’s new research on the three principles that seem to drive the most purposeful lives.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Daniel on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Daniel Crosby

07:55 - What caused Crosby to write his book?

11:28 - How would Crosby like people to read his book?

13:40 - Does there exist a perfect moment to invest?

17:19 - Crosby's perspective on valuations

21:08 - Does it makes sense to use financial advisors?

25:33 - Taking the worst case off the table

30:00 - How to achieve psychological, financial safety with a low budget

32:25 - The relationship between fees and performance

34:47 - Giving your accounts a purpose

38:04 - The name of your accounts matters

41:23 - We have been wrong about will power

45:01 - Off-loading your mental bandwidth

46:42 - The cheat meal of your financial life

48:03 - Are we thinking too much about happiness?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI324: Embracing Uncertainty using Adaptive Models ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 30 Nov 2024 10:00:00 +0100

Today, we dive deep into the complex dynamics of global markets and the often overlooked risks that can accumulate during periods of apparent stability. Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the rising concerns over declining fertility rates worldwide, highlighting how economic pressures, environmental challenges, and cultural shifts contribute to this seismic change. We draw parallels between these demographic trends and the unpredictability of financial markets, emphasizing the importance of adaptive strategies in navigating uncertainty. The conversation also touches on the limitations of traditional risk management models, advocating for a shift towards frameworks that prioritize resilience and adaptability. In this episode you will gain valuable insights into how both personal and economic landscapes can evolve and respond to changing conditions.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:37 - What has caught our attention recently?

07:20 - Is now the best time to allocate to alternatives?

12:14 - Industry performance update

17:58 - How we manage uncertainty in "chaotic systems"

25:55 - How to translate ensemble models to trend following

28:25 - The benefits of adding more trend following models

34:10 - It takes guts to be a greedy pig

37:04 - The hidden risks of financial markets

48:47 - Why Value at Risk (VaR) models makes more sense than having stops

56:35 - The inevitable outcome of cycles

01:06:40 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM75: Macro Mastery: The Hedgeye Approach ft. Keith McCullough

Wed, 27 Nov 2024 05:00:00 +0100

Keith McCullough, Founder and CEO of Hedgeye Risk Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an in-depth look into Keith’s distinctive approach to global macro analysis and tactical trading. The conversation explores Keith’s background as a hedge fund manager and his views on how markets have evolved, especially in relation to option flows. Keith breaks down his four-quadrant framework for macro analysis, explaining how pinpointing the economy’s position within these quadrants is as much an art as it is a science. His framework currently signals continued strength in the US dollar and US equities. A fundamental aspect of Keith’s approach is his respect for market signals and the need for these signals to confirm his macro views. He also shares valuable insights into the behavioural challenges of investing and emphasizes the importance of a disciplined, repeatable process to drive long-term success.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Keith on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Keith McCullough

05:01 - From hedge fund to research

07:29 - Being a retail investor is an insult

09:56 - How McCullough has reacted to the rise of 0DTE options

13:48 - Have stocks become more macro driven?

15:54 - Where are we currently in the 4 quads?

19:22 - The challenge of lag in macro signals

21:26 - McCullough's framework for monitoring signals

24:25 - When can herding be a distraction?

26:54 - The current market from a quad perspective

31:09 - Reassessing the narrative of the deficits

35:50 - The outlook of the dollar

38:16 - The (un?)importance of valuations

41:07 - How the state of China influences McCulloughs model and framework

43:15 - Getting on the right side of the K

45:12 - The market from the 3 pots perspective

48:33 - Developing a respect for the markets

52:07 - McCullough's advice for preserving your wealth

56:01 - McCullough's philosophy to investing

58:33 - McCullough's perspective on systematic trend following

59:50 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI323: From Politics to Profits: How Regime Changes Affect Your Portfolio ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 23 Nov 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Together with Cem Karsan we explore the current investment landscape, with a particular emphasis on the volatility and dispersion of market correlations as we approach the end of the year. We discuss how a compression of volatility at the index level can lead to increased idiosyncratic risk for individual stocks, creating opportunities for savvy investors. We explore the implications of regime shifts and how geopolitical factors, particularly related to the new U.S. administration, could influence market dynamics. The conversation also touches on the historical context of populism in politics and its potential impact on financial markets, suggesting that upcoming months may reveal significant volatility, particularly in fixed income and currency markets. With insights into sectors like gold and evolving trends in cryptocurrencies, we provide a comprehensive overview of what investors should keep an eye on as they navigate this complex environment.

Add to Show Notes

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:50 - Industry performance update

07:58 - Q1, Adam: What are your thoughts about trading efficiency in VIX futures trading?

09:30 - How volatility compression evolves going into 2025

17:42 - How you take advantage of the volatility compression

26:14 - How Cem acurately forecasted this year's market rallys and his predictions for 2025

39:34 - When does Cem think the current populist period began?

48:22 - How inflation and interest rates have impacted the rise of populism

55:31 - How the gold market has evolved over the recent years

59:12 - Cem's outlook for Bitcoin and crypto currencies

01:03:59 - Is Donald Trump a threat to populism?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI11: Avoiding the Herd: A Different Path to Alpha ft. Jerome Callut

Wed, 20 Nov 2024 08:00:00 +0100

In today’s episode Moritz Seibert is joined by Jerome Callut, one of the founders of DCM Systematic, a quantitative hedge fund based in Geneva, Switzerland. DCM Systematic aims to produce returns that are uncorrelated to trend following CTAs by pursuing a different path to alpha. In fact, the team around Jerome is very much focused on avoiding getting into trend following trades. Instead, they emphasize strategies which anticipate the flows of other traders and use several behavior-based models to distinguish themselves from the SG CTA index and other industry benchmarks. Jerome and Moritz speak discuss generic trade examples and Jerome explains why pro-active and re-active risk management is very important for them.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Follow Jerome on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to Jerome Callut

03:52 - Why they use non-trend following models

08:42 - What would happen if they added a trend following component to their model?

09:57 - The 3 categories of their trading system

11:11 - Category 1, Behavioural: Anticipating the flows and trades of other traders

15:35 - An example of how they handle flow

18:35 - Did Callut anticipate the unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade?

21:51 - Exploiting the skid marks in the markets

23:53 - Category 2: Relative value and spread trading

29:37 - Collecting the roll down yield

31:12 - Is Callut also engaging in a short VIX positioning?

36:59 - Proactive and reactive management

38:33 - What could happen after Volmageddon?

40:42 - How they implement reactive management

41:37 - Category 3: Macro trades

46:37 - What role does automation play at DCM Systematic?

48:36 - How they implement AI and machine learning

53:38 - A work in progress

54:46 - Working with a moving target

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI322: Market Narratives and the Unpredictable Alpha ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 16 Nov 2024 15:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Mark Rzepczynski joins Alan Dunne to explore narratives, rationality, and behavioral uncertainty, particularly in the context of trend following. They discuss recent market trends in the wake of the election, with a focus on bond market movements. Mark shares insights on the current stage of the risk cycle and whether we’re witnessing an excessive buildup of leverage in the financial system. The conversation also delves into two fascinating studies: one on the significance of having access to the news and accurate information in trading, and another on how equity analysts forecast earnings—both with implications for trend following strategies. Finally, they examine the narratives currently shaping markets and debate whether trend following can be considered a source of “unpredictable alpha.”

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:43 - Industry performance update

10:17 - New times for bonds

14:37 - The issue is always in the details

19:02 - What is driving markets at the moment?

22:36 - The perspective on treasuries is changing

26:34 - Trend followers are going crypto

29:22 - Does crypto make sense in trend following?

30:47 - Where are we in the risk cycle?

34:57 - How spikes in credit spreads have impacted leverage

38:16 - Does "perfect information" exist?

43:27 - A kind and a wicked environment

45:56 - Why Mark tries to avoid causal influence in economics

48:50 - Get your position size right or go bankrupt

50:31 - Trailing PE - the secret sauce of successful analysts?

55:18 - How narrative impacts the stock market

58:37 - Discussing recent market action through the narrative lens

01:01:26 - Trend following - an unpredictable alpha?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL32: Unpacking Inflation: What History Teaches Us About Today's Economy ft. Carola Binder

Wed, 13 Nov 2024 02:00:00 +0100

Today we share an engaging discussion with Carola Binder, who explores the intricate relationship between inflation and democracy in the United States. Binder argues that inflation has been a crucial part of economic debate since the nation’s founding, intertwined with the political landscape and the fate of democracy itself. She highlights the significant divergence in inflation expectations between Republicans and Democrats, particularly during the Biden presidency, where rising inflation expectations were predominantly driven by Republicans. The conversation delves into how historical perspectives on inflation have shifted, from concerns about devaluation and price stability to modern debates on monetary policy and the role of central banks. Binder also examines the implications of these dynamics for future inflation and the credibility of the Federal Reserve, providing insights that resonate with current economic challenges.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Carola on LinkedIn and read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Introduction to Carola Binder

03:20 - How did she approach her research?

07:55 - What does inflation historically mean?

11:19 - How the view on paper money has changed over time

16:25 - How the role of the Fed has evolved historically

22:35 - How gold has impacted the

24:17 - Controlling paper money - advancing democracy or centralizing power?

29:16 - Is 2% inflation the wrong target?

35:27 - Incorporating asset prices into central bank decision making

40:29 - How does Binder measure inflation expectations?

47:10 - Has inflation expectations risen since the Covid19 period?

49:57 - Does the high governmental debt imply a high inflation period ahead?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI321: Post Election - Why Trends Matter More Than Ever ft. Alan Dunne

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 13:45:00 +0100

Together with Alan Dunne, we delve into the shifting landscape of systematic investing, highlighting the growing use of quant based strategies as well as AI and machine learning in portfolio management. The discussion also emphasizes the significant impact of concentration within the S&P 500, with Goldman Sachs now predicting that this could lead to lower returns for traditional equity investments in the coming decade. We explore various economic themes, and note the challenges facing Europe compared to the optimism in the US markets. We also reflect on the recent elections and their implications for future economic policies. The conversation wraps up with insights on trend following strategies and how they can enhance portfolio diversification, particularly in a climate of rising yields and market volatility.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:05 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:17 - Dark times ahead for Europe?

06:26 - An analysis of the election

11:46 - Niels' thoughts on the election outcome

14:58 - Alan's thoughts on the election outcome

18:11 - A global macro perspective

28:00 - Has the election outcome any effect on the US deficits?

31:39 - Industry performance update

37:19 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

37:33 - Q1, Yann: I’m wondering if, for portfolio stability, it might make sense to replace bonds with outcome-defined or buffered ETFs. Any thoughts?

41:56 - Is Goldman Sachs changing their strategy?

48:38 - The role of trend following in an unpredictable market

53:45 - How systematic investing has become integral in portfolio construction

57:54 - Systematic - an overlooked word

59:21 - The mystery paper - a teaser

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM74: Navigating the Bond Market: What You Need to Know About Recent Trends ft. Stephen Miran

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 05:00:00 +0100

Stephen Miran, Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital and Fellow at the Manhattan Institute joins Alan Dunne in this episode to explore the bond market outlook and broader economic trends. They delve into an influential paper Steve co-authored with Nouriel Roubini on Activist Treasury Issuance, examining how Treasury actions may have countered some of the Fed's monetary tightening this year. Steve shares his insights on the economy's current state, his view that the Fed may have erred with its recent 50 basis point cut, and how the upcoming election could shape economic policy. While much focus has been on potential tariff impacts under a Trump administration, Steve highlights the possible benefits of supply-side measures. The conversation also covers the drivers behind the rise in bond yields since the Fed’s rate cut and the medium-term outlook for fiscal policy and bonds.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Stephen on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:25 - Introduction to Steve Miran

05:53 - Why did Miran write his paper on Activist Treasury Issuance?

10:24 - How Quantitative Easing and Exchange Traded Instruments work

15:26 - Treasury is not a market timer

17:39 - Getting lost in the Fed jargon

21:06 - What is driving the increasing yields?

24:38 - The refunding - Miran's expectations

27:26 - The state of the labour market

32:48 - How is Fed handling the economy at the moment?

34:21 - What is plausible range for the neutral rate?

37:07 - Is there a better way to run policy?

40:42 - The economic impact of the election outcome

45:54 - The challenges of regulatory policy

48:57 - Who will be the Treasury Secretary?

50:14 - Will a win for Trump mean bigger concerns for the deficits?

53:49 - The outlook for fixed income

56:07 - Geopolitical concerns

57:37 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI320: Bonds: The Voldemort of Asset Allocation ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 02 Nov 2024 13:00:00 +0100

In this week’s episode, Andrew Beer joins Alan Dunne to dive into the evolution of hedge funds, mutual funds, and ETFs within the managed futures space. Andrew give his perspective on the architecture of the CTA industry from the perspective of asset raising and the role that a diverse investor base plays in shaping product offerings within the sector. The conversation explores how liquid alternative investments compare with traditional hedge funds, examining what recent performance trends reveal about each. They also discuss the influence of narrative in CTA selection and analyse the resurgence of portable alpha and the growing interest in return stacking strategies, inspired by a recent Bloomberg article.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:13 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:30 - Industry performance update

04:48 - Andrew's perspective on the last few months

11:11 - Insights from the Hedge Nordic Event

16:49 - Picking the right managers

19:57 - A Hunger Games mentality

26:53 - Different products for different market segments

33:31 - Are hedge funds better than mutual funds?

43:20 - What we know about the performance of ETFs vs mutual funds

46:33 - Will replicators become more prominent?

53:49 - Tell me what you love

57:24 - Bonds are like the Voldemort of asset allocation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM73: Debt, Deficits, and the Road Ahead ft. Jason Furman

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 13:00:00 +0100

Jason Furman, Professor of Economics at Harvard and former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under President Obama, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to share his thoughts on the current economic outlook. They explore the recent improvement in the inflation data, whether the Fed is justified in claiming victory in its inflation fight and the likely trajectory for inflation over the next year. On monetary policy, Jason expects further rate cuts from the Fed this year but is sceptical about how much additional easing we may see next year. That ‘s partially because he sees a higher neutral policy rate and partly because high fiscal deficits looks set to remain a feature of the next administration. Looking further ahead Jason offers his thoughts on the longer term growth outlook, the likelihood of an AI-led productivity boom, the pros and cons of active industrial policy and whether persistent fiscal deficits might eventually lead to a debt crisis.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Jason on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Jason Furman

04:28 - The state of the economy

04:42 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

06:01 - Is inflation stickier than we thought it would be?

09:40 - The outlook for inflation

12:34 - A move in the right direction?

14:34 - Is the neutral rate a useful concept?

17:35 - The risk of being too sensitive to current data

21:05 - Is the shift towards transparency actually positive?

22:28 - Is the economy too complicated to forecast?

23:44 - Is the era of ultra low rates behind us?

26:46 - Furman's thoughts on the U.S deficits

28:29 - Has the Treasury managed the situation right?

31:34 - Will the political environment change due to larger acceptance to deficits?

34:46 - Will Powell and Trump be able to communicate?

36:32 - A win for Trump = the end of the Fed?

37:57 - Is the Fed in danger?

39:24 - Will the increasing debt levels cause quantitative easing?

40:54 - Productivity - reasons to be optimistic?

43:57 - Is AI a threat to employment?

45:25 - Furman's perspective on the industrial policy

49:33 - Are we going too far in the wrong direction?

51:06 - China's influence on the global economy

54:05 - The outlook of economical growth

55:38 - Is Europe in trouble?

57:12 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI319: The Surprising Factors Behind CTA Performance: Is Less More? ft. Rob Carver

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 20:00:00 +0100

Today, we delve into the nuances of systematic investing with Rob Carver, focusing on the concept of replication in trend-following strategies. The discussion contrasts different approaches to replication, highlighting the potential pitfalls of return-based methods that attempt to mimic established indices. We emphasize that simply increasing the number of markets in a portfolio may not lead to better diversification, as it could ultimately expose investors to similar risk factors. We also explore the implications of a recent paper from Newfound Research, which uses random data to challenge traditional views on replication effectiveness. With insights on factors influencing CTA performance and the importance of understanding true diversification, this conversation offers valuable perspectives for both investors and practitioners in the systematic trading space.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:55 - Should trend followers lower their horizon?

09:26 - The AI CTA's are being tracked

10:37 - An economic Kayfabe

13:58 - Are interest rates approaching a Minsky moment?

18:44 - Industry performance update

20:33 - Q1, CryptoCaptainX3: How do you manage intraday adverse price movement risk while running a daily system?

25:43 - Q1.1 CryptoCaptainX3: How to manage overnight gap risk for futures instruments which trade only 6 hours a day?

26:13 - Q1.2 CryptoCaptainX3: Can you trade directional strategies but instead of using futures, use options. What are the pros and cons of this?

30:55 - Q2, Taylor: How do you think about position rebalancing, and the tradeoff between maintaining your desired risk allocation versus minimizing transaction cost?

34:22 - Q3, Richard: "Position Inertia", a method of avoiding frequent small trades by widening the target to 10% above and below the desired position. Have you considered varying this parameter depending on the estimated trading costs of the instrument?

36:01 - Q3.1 Richard: I currently use a rolling 10 year window of weekly returns to forecast correlations between futures instruments as you suggest in a blog post in 2020. Do you think there would be any value in applying an exponential smoothing to the correlation forecasts?

41:13 - Q4 Michael: How do you monitor that your systems are runnings normally intra-day, without checking the performance?

43:48 - Q5 Richard: How to dynamically allocate capital between different strategies in a live systematic system, given dozens of strategies, all with changing performance over time.

45:33 - Q6: Cloud: Are there any ways or optimizations to pick the right strategies and right instruments (profitable)?

47:38 - Is "less is more" applicable when it comes to market selection?

59:26 - The promises and pitfalls of replication strategies

01:13:30 - A mixed up narrative - do they truly replicate performance?

01:20:00 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI10: The Untold Side of the Turtle Trading Legacy ft. Bill Eckhardt & Rob Sorrentino

Wed, 23 Oct 2024 06:00:00 +0100

In his first podcast episode ever, Bill Eckhardt emphasizes that successful trading hinges more on risk control than on predicting market movements, a theme that resonates throughout his conversation with Moritz Siebert and Rob Sorrentino. The episode explores Eckhardt's journey from the renowned Turtle trading experiment to his current systematic trading strategies at Eckhardt Trading Company. The conversation provides insights into the evolution of trading strategies, the importance of maintaining emotional discipline, and the necessity of adapting to changing market conditions. The discussion also delves into the challenges of overfitting in trading models and the significant role that robust statistical methods play in managing risk. With anecdotes about the unique characteristics of traders and the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio, this episode offers a fascinating look into the mind of a trading legend and the principles that guide his enduring success.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Learn more about Eckhardt Trading Company here.

Follow Moritz on Linkedin.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:30 - Introduction

03:59 - Eckhardt's relationship to Richard Dennis

06:34 - Can trading be taught?

08:50 - The story behind the trading rules

12:32 - What characterises Eckhardt Trading?

13:44 - How did their perception of risk change over the years?

22:01 - Why they focus on short term trading

27:25 - How they use volatility in their trading

32:49 - Do they utilize other methods than trend following?

34:05 - Why do they avoid trade summary statistics?

40:26 - How they control overfitting and underfitting

45:37 - How they use "the gauntlet" to test systems

49:12 - How many markets do they trade and why?

53:57 - Why they don't trade single stocks

56:28 - Their view on replication strategies

01:05:23 - Evaluating the success of systems

01:08:02 - What are the most important things to avoid when designing trend following systems?

01:08:47 - The future of trend following

01:11:11 - Criticise ideas, not people

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI318: How Trend Following Changes with Interest Rates ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 19 Oct 2024 03:00:00 +0100

Join Katy and I as we delve into the intriguing dynamics of trend following in the context of changing interest rates. We cover how trend-following strategies can be a valuable addition to investment portfolios, especially in high-rate environments where traditional fixed income may offer diminished diversification benefits. Katy shares insights from her latest paper, which explores the performance of trend-following strategies during various economic crises, emphasizing the importance of adaptability in turbulent markets. The conversation also touches on the recent Nobel Prize buzz surrounding MIT and its implications for innovation in finance, as well as review the latest quarterly insights from Quantica. As we navigate through market trends, you are encouraged to consider how a well-allocated trend-following strategy can enhance portfolio resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainties.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:01 - What is going on with Danske Commodities?

06:29 - Energy traders are the new star athletes

07:47 - Industry performance update

09:55 - How has 2024 treated us so far?

13:58 - The implications of major regime transitions

18:33 - What made Katy write her paper, "Trend Following in a Defensive Rotation"?

24:22 - How has fixed income behaved over a long period of time?

29:02 - How does trend following portfolios react to the correlation between stocks and bonds?

33:27 - Katy's thoughts on the large dispersion between managers this year

36:44 - Can you use carry trading with the SG Trend Index?

39:48 - Timing trends is a fool's game

42:31 - Bill Eckhardt is coming on the podcast next week!

43:35 - The outlook for trend following

46:42 - How do trend following strategies perform in different interest rate environments

52:15 - Do investors agree with the findings of the Quantica paper?

55:31 - Are investors disappointed about the trend following performance?

01:00:40 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM72: China's Market Rebound: From Chaos to Opportunity ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

Wed, 16 Oct 2024 06:30:00 +0100

Alan Dunne welcomes back Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal in this episode to delve into the Chinese economic outlook and discuss the broader macro trends. Louis shares his thoughts on whether the Chinese economy and Chinese asset markets are truly at a turning point. They examine the crisis of confidence among Chinese consumers and assess whether recent stimulus measures can help. China’s active industrial policy and desire to grow its share of global manufacturing has been a key policy pillar and Louis examines how sustainable the policy is. The conversation also covers US policy, the prospects for a recession, and how the upcoming US election—particularly a potential Trump victory—could be highly significant for US- China relations and impact bond markets and the US dollar. Louis also gives his take on the structural challenges facing France and Europe, and whether we can expect a recovery in productivity.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:27 - Introduction to Louis Gave

03:50 - Is the Chinese economy experiencing a turning point?

09:20 - Can China restore their foreign capital flow?

13:40 - The state of Chinese fiscal policy

19:12 - A flash point in Chinese overcapacity

24:14 - A commodity catalyst - reflation incoming?

28:46 - Will the U.S experience a recession soon?

36:48 - A fiscal crisis in the U.S?

40:32 - The economic challenges that France faces

43:09 - The state of the European economy

47:20 - Welfare states are falling apart

49:48 - The U.S. election - how will it impact investors?

54:00 - How Trump would handle the current global conflicts

56:59 - Trump interfering with the Fed

59:26 - A weak dollar = pressure on bonds?

01:00:05 - Still bullish on emerging markets?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI317: From Hurricanes to Hedge Strategies: The Hidden Common Factors ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 12 Oct 2024 07:30:00 +0100

This episode dives deep into the intricacies of trend following strategies and their connection to complex adaptive systems. Richard Brennan and Niels Kaastrup-Larsen explore how these systems respond to market signals and the importance of boundaries in shaping investor behavior. They discuss the challenges faced by trend followers in the current market environment, particularly in October, where many strategies have encountered difficulties. The conversation touches on significant topics such as risk management, diversification, and the role of outliers in financial markets, emphasizing that these seemingly anomalous events are actually a natural part of the market's fabric. With insights drawn from recent literature, including works by John Holland and Jeffrey West, the episode highlights the necessity of adapting to evolving market signals and the dynamic interplay between agents within these complex systems.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:40 - Our thoughts go to Florida

03:39 - A rough time for trend following

08:39 - Industry performance update

12:14 - Q1, Shahar: Regarding using long only trend following as an overlay to broad market ETFs

23:38 - Applying Warren Buffett's philosophy to trend following

32:33 - Setting limits in your trade following strategy

40:47 - What complex adaptive system can teach us about trend following

01:06:22 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL31: What Your Cashless Future Will Look Like ft. Richard Holden

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Richard Holden, economics professor at the University of New South Wales Sydney author of a new book: Money in the 21st Century: Cheap, Mobile and Digital. Richard explains why the prospect of a private digital currency run by a company like Amazon or Google is a real possibility and why that would represent an enormous transfer of power from democratic governments to a private company. He also talks about China’s digital currency, its vast user base in China and how it even has users in Australia. Richard believes the US should proactively head off the threat from these digital competitors by creating ‘fedcoin’ - a digital currency managed by the Federal Reserve. He believes it could be done with little disruption to consumers and could bring enormous benefits.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Richard on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - Introduction to Richard Holden

06:06 - A whole year without cash

08:08 - What are the benefits of cash?

12:40 - The implications of a cashless society

23:53 - A big hurdle

26:04 - Building a better mouse trap

28:08 - Dealing with the U.S. banking regulation

31:13 - The Fed Coin - How could it work?

38:11 - The dark side of the Fed Coin

41:36 - How the borrowing process works in banks

44:55 - How would the Fed control credits?

51:56 - Is Holden working with the Australian government?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI316: Solving the "How Much" Trend Following Question ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 05 Oct 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Today we tackle the most important questions arising from the evolving landscape of systematic investing, focusing on the changing dynamics of asset allocation in the current market environment. Nick Baltas and Niels discuss the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on traditional 60/40 portfolios, questioning whether this approach remains valid. We explore the potential benefits of incorporating trend-following strategies, especially in light of recent market volatility. The conversation includes insights on risk management and the importance of understanding correlation, particularly during downturns. With a blend of empirical analysis and practical advice, the episode touches on the key question of how much investors should allocate to trend-following strategies from a different perspective and encourages listeners to rethink their investment strategies and consider more adaptive approaches to asset allocation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:28 - What has caught our attention recently?

07:37 - Industry performance update

09:02 - Reflecting on August and September

12:25 - The reversal of the short fixed income trade

17:31 - The death of short-term trend following?

21:32 - Finding the right trading speed

24:15 - Out-performing is a long game

27:47 - Its time to move direction

29:53 - Can CTA's forecast risk and returns?

33:45 - Evaluating models over a long time

39:24 - Baltas' thoughts on correlation forecasting

42:26 - Pairing risk parity and trend following

48:25 - A dangerous game

51:35 - How much should you allocate to trend following?

01:01:06 - Is the benchmark changing?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO26: Managing a C$600 Billion State Pension Fund ft. Amy Flikerski

Wed, 02 Oct 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Amy Flikerski, Head of External Portfolio Management at CPP Investments - the C$600bn Canadian state pension fund - joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss allocating capital to emerging and established hedge funds. They delve into the evolution of the hedge fund industry from the perspective of an allocator and particularly how the growth of the large multi-manager multi-strats has impacted hedge fund allocating. Amy discusses the role of the External Manager Allocations in the context of CPP Investment’s overall portfolio and some of the key considerations from a top down and bottom up perspective when the portfolio is constructed. Amy also highlights how CPP Investments evaluates emerging managers, what makes a great hedge fund manager and also offers valuable advice for hedge fund managers when engaging with allocators.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Amy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 - Introduction to Amy Flikerski

08:02 - How they think about manager selection

09:28 - How do they categorize their strategies?

11:40 - How they assess their investment objective

13:07 - How they manage risk

14:29 - How the global macro environment affects them

15:41 - How they manage a billion dollar portfolio

17:11 - How the hedge fund industry have evolved

19:13 - Is there a place for multi-manager pods?

20:47 - A war for talent

22:34 - How they approach internal vs external management

26:34 - How is their team set up?

28:48 - What are they looking for when assessing managers?

30:54 - Making allocation to emerging managers

33:10 - What characterize their managers?

34:48 - Assessing the scalability of a strategy

37:29 - What makes a good allocator

39:23 - Advice for independant hedge funds

41:40 - What types of early stage managers do they look out for?

42:55 - How they approach their portfolio construction

45:25 - How they manage fund constraints

46:48 - What is their typical ticket size?

47:31 - Reaching the right level of transparency

49:46 - Characteristics of a succesful discretionary manager

51:14 - Managing drawdowns

52:56 - Their decision-making process

55:58 - How they approach commodities

57:33 - Advice for other managers

01:00:18 - Advice for people coming into the industry

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI315: Preparing for a Pivotal Time in Global Markets ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 28 Sep 2024 15:00:00 +0100

In this week’s episode, Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne to discuss the interplay between market flows and global macro developments as we enter a pivotal time of year for markets. They explore the potentially favourable setup for equities in the coming weeks, driven by flow dynamics and dealer positioning, while considering how recent policy moves in China could support the near-term bullish outlook. As the U.S. election approaches, Cem outlines how different outcomes could impact policy, the economy, and geopolitics—ultimately shaping the post-election market landscape. Despite recent U.S. inflation data showing lower prints, Karsan reaffirms his view of a structurally inflationary period ahead and shares key trades that could capitalize on this outlook in the current market environment.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:17 - Industry performance update

05:36 - Seasonality in markets

17:49 - Are China losing the ability to protect their assets?

21:44 - A dangerous path for Chinese assets

25:36 - A structural downtrend in inflation?

35:30 - Is the market looking through the rate cuts?

39:37 - Trump vs. Harris - how will it impact markets?

46:19 - A global conflict perspective

50:40 - How the election might impact commodities

52:06 - Migration policy and its effect on inflation

53:57 - How markets might trade right after the election is over

57:13 - Dangerous periods ahead?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM71: The Carry Risk Lurking in Your Portfolio ft. Kevin Coldiron

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 09:00:00 +0100

In this episode, I’m joined by Alan Dunne and Kevin Coldiron, a co-author of "The Rise of Carry", for an in-depth discussion on the recent unwinding of the Yen carry trade and a broader exploration of how carry trades are becoming more embedded in both our financial decisions and everyday lives. We revisit key insights Kevin took from his book, published in 2019, and explore where things have unfolded differently than anticipated. Kevin also breaks down how the S&P 500 might be central to the current carry regime and offers thoughts on how we could assess the risk of a ‘deflation shock’ or ‘carry crash.’ We round out the conversation by considering the future of carry and the role geopolitics might play in shaping its course.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Kevin on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:02 - How carry trading has evolved since "The Rise of Carry" was published

06:04 - How carry is related to the COVID-19 crisis

09:12 - Has anything surprised Kevin since he wrote the book?

17:02 - Was SVB a lucky escape?

23:15 - S&P 500 - the essence of a carry trade?

30:16 - Short-term moves are being exacerbated

32:30 - VIX inversions and structural changes

34:23 - What are the characteristics of a carry trade?

37:58 - A change in carry = a change in the monetary system?

45:09 - How could you make money from a carry unwind?

49:13 - Will we ever get away from the Fed Put?

53:47 - A new way of treating the S&P 500

56:33 - How the carry regime impacts the economy

59:15 - The impact of geopolitics on carry

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI314: Algo Anxiety... Can AI Resolve This? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 21 Sep 2024 14:30:00 +0100

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we dive deep into the outlook for trend following and discuss what may drive trends in the coming years. We analyze the role that the Fed plays in the rise of carry trading and we discuss how the so-called KuU framework can be used for in your strategy. We also discuss the use of AI when it comes to forecasting and building models and why systematic managers should be better at explaining what they do, how to use the 3 C’s to better understand markets, the pros and cons of buying an index and more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:18 - Industry performance update

09:58 - Who is responsible for the rise of carry?

16:30 - The markets are the real voting machine

18:34 - Reviewing Powell's speech

23:39 - The KuU framework

29:13 - The difference between AI generated and human-made forecasts

38:15 - The flaws of systematic managers

47:05 - Working with the 3 C's

57:13 - "What was it like to be in a bear market?"

01:01:42 - The pros and cons of buying an index

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM70: The State of the Commodity Super Cycle ft. Adam Rozencwajg

Wed, 18 Sep 2024 13:45:00 +0100

This week you are in for a real treat, as Adam Rozencwajg rejoins Cem Karsan and me for a deep dive into the latest developments in the Commodity markets. It's been 15 months since Adam last appeared on the show, and he's back to share his updated perspectives on the highly anticipated next Commodity Super Cycle. Adam even unveils a fascinating and little-known fact about what often coincides with the start of a Super Cycle. We also take a closer look at key markets like Gold, Copper, and the entire Energy Complex—topics at the heart of debates surrounding the US Dollar and the Green Transition. Packed with fresh insights and thought-provoking discussions, we hope you will enjoy this conversation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:14 - Catching up

05:00 - What has happened since we last spoke?

12:58 - The state of the metal sector

22:06 - Thoughts on positioning in commodity trading

28:41 - Getting the timing right

42:51 - It's all about volatility

44:38 - Playing the long game

47:46 - Are investors positioning wrong?

52:40 - A carry trade bubble

54:29 - Why are many investors bullish on copper?

01:01:12 - Why are copper prices going down?

01:05:13 - Demographics - a bizarre kind of beast

01:08:40 - An over-demand of assets in China?

01:12:54 - Thoughts on the recent decline in oil

01:15:44 - What is the current level of the U.S strategic reserve?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI313: The Paradox of High-Volatility Alternatives ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 14 Sep 2024 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alan Dunne and I explore Mario Draghi's latest vision for Europe and discuss an insightful interview with Kenneth Rogoff, titled "We Will See More Spikes in Inflation," which covers key macroeconomic issues. We also explore the recent Goldman Sachs reports, highlighted by the Financial Times, showing significant outflows from multi-strategy funds. Alan shares his perspective on the current macro landscape and why he believes we may witness more “flash crashes and extreme market moves” in the near future. Finally, we dig into two articles by Cliff Asness—"The Less Efficient Market Hypothesis" and "In Praise of High-Volatility Alternatives"—which challenge traditional thinking on market efficiency and make a compelling case for considering higher volatility versions of strategies like Trend Following over their low-volatility cousins.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:42 - What has caught our attention recently?

05:04 - Draghi's vision for Europe

08:09 - Keneth Rogoff's outlook for inflation

14:02 - Clients withdrawing money from multi-strat funds

19:58 - The big macro picture

27:33 - Is monetary policy still loose?

29:11 - Industry performance update (Finally!)

34:11 - The carry unwind

41:20 - Are people underestimating trend following?

44:51 - Are markets becoming less efficient?

48:30 - Why higher volatility funds may be good for your portfolio

56:52 - A historical perspective on volatility

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL30: How To Evaluate True Macro Risk? ft. Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 06:30:00 +0100

Our guest on this episode is Philipp Carlsson-Szlezak, the Global Chief Economist at BCG and author of a new book: Shocks, Crises and False Alarms: How to Assess True Macroeconomic Risk. He explains why it’s wrong to put focus on extreme “doom mongering” predictions - which often turn out to be false alarms. We discuss his intuitive framework for evaluating economic predictions and use it to evaluate the risk of inflation and debt in the coming years.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Philipp on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Philipp Carlsson

03:08 - What motivated Carlsson to write his book?

05:13 - A framework for assessing macro risk

09:00 - How do we react to doomsayings?

11:18 - Covid19 - the perfect example of a false alarm

15:15 - The new area of tightness

18:27 - It is all about labour cost

23:46 - The deflationary power of technology

26:46 - The outlook of the labour market

32:22 - Why inflation expectations will stay achored in a world of tightness

39:38 - What happens in a world with an upward bias to inflation?

43:26 - The difference between existential and tactical crises

46:56 - Carlsson's framework for assessing the risk of debt

52:04 - Carlsson's outlook for the economy going forward

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI312: Should You Just Buy a CTA Index? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 07 Sep 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver is back this week to discuss the importance of being able to detach yourself from the markets and taking “real” breaks from time to time and we also hear from Rob what it is like to let his systematic trading system run by itself whilst he enjoys a long summer holiday. We also discuss the underlying theory of macro momentum and how you can apply it to your own system, how he targets volatility in his portfolio and why Rob does not like using stop-losses to exit trades. We also touch on whether it’s a good idea for Trump to create a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve, how ETFs really work and what they can bring to your portfolio, and whether or not buying one of the new CTA replication products is really the same as buying the underlying CTA index based on a recent paper from Transtrend.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:18 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:59 - How it feels to let your system run without you during holidays?

10:45 - Industry performance update

14:30 - Q1, Luis: What are your thoughts on Macro Momentum for retail traders?

21:00 - Q2, Roman: How to best target portfolio volatility

24:24 - Q3, Joshua: Which risk manament approach is best ATRs vs actual % of capital

31:22 - Would a Bitcoin strategic reserve be a good idea?

39:05 - A deep dive into ETFs

48:52 - An example of a worst case scenario ETF

53:13 - Can't we just buy a CTA index?

59:29 - The best way to think about indices

01:07:41 - Turning a backtest into an index

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK: Just Buy the Index!

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM69: The Global Economy from a Liquidity Perspective ft. Michael Howell

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Michael Howell, Managing Director of Crossborder Capital and Author of the Capital Wars Substack, returns in this episode to speak with Alan Dunne about the liquidity cycle’s influence on global markets. Michael outlines how he sees rising liquidity growth providing a favourable backdrop for risky assets and that the conventional narrative that the Fed has been tightening liquidity via quantitative tightening is misplaced. They discuss how the requirement to refinance $70 trillion in debt every year, and the prospect of double digit growth in debt, will inevitably lead to monetary inflation with profound implications for assets like gold and equities. In contrast, although tactical duration issuance by the US Treasury has supported US Treasuries the longer term outlook is less favourable. The conversation also touches on global FX markets, the recent unwinding of the JPY carry trade, and Michael’s perspective on a possible tacit agreement to weaken the US dollar, which could have far-reaching consequences for liquidity and asset markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Michael Howell

03:15 - Howell's framework for looking at markets

06:32 - How Asian central banks impact U.S equities

09:17 - Do different types of liquidity have different effects?

12:17 - The last 15 years from a liquidity perspective

18:19 - Is liquidity the driver of the bond yield moves?

23:08 - Why has the quantitative tightening not been more disruptive?

32:44 - Is a debt crisis in sight?

39:48 - Howell's advice for allocating assets

42:45 - What has caused the reversal of the Yen?

48:02 - How to distinguish between capital flows and hedging activity

49:44 - Why are the G10 currencies so stable?

51:18 - A risk point on the radar

52:23 - The implications of the shift towards private credit financing

55:02 - A favorable environment for risk assets?

59:15 - Is Howell skeptical about the Chinese currency?

01:00:11 - The outlook of the liquidity cycle

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI311: BREAKING: New CTA Index being revealed ft. Andrew Beer

Sun, 01 Sep 2024 07:00:00 +0100

As August comes to an end, we discuss this month of extremes for the trend-following community, marked by significant dispersion in performance and unusual price activity across multiple asset classes as well as the economy in general. We address the strengths and limitations of replication strategies and Andrew shares insights into how he thinks about appropriate correlations levels between the benchmark and the replication strategy. We discuss the challenges of the due diligence process in replication strategies including team size, why you should start allocating to managed futures and finally Andrew reveals an exciting world premiere that he and his team has been part of.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:49 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:17 - Industry performance update

08:07 - Just another August?

12:35 - Q1, Martin: How to reduce drawdowns in the managed futures ETF space?

14:54 - Has replication become obsolete?

25:14 - Andrew's guidelines for correlation

31:56 - Staying in sync

35:47 - How to deal with the simplicity of replication strategies

43:42 - A world premiere!

51:05 - An index madness

53:05 - Beware of the shiny new things

56:02 - How the new index works

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM68: Chief Strategist: “Most Scenerios Point to Recession” ft. Peter Berezin

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Peter Berezin Chief Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research returns in this episode to discuss with Alan Dunne why he believes the US economy will soon enter recession and the S&P 500 will fall as low as 3750. Peter highlights the leading indicators in the housing market, labour market and in manufacturing that suggest to him that the economy is on a weakening trend and why he expects the unemployment rate to rise from here. They discuss current equity valuations, the Mag 7 and why investors may be overly optimistic on AI - Peter believes his base case of a fall in the S&P 500 to 3750 might be optimistic given the elevated level of profit margins. They also delve into what a Fed easing cycle will look like in the next downturn, Peter’s call for 3% 10 year yields in the US and the implications for fixed income, the US dollar and commodities.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:19 - What has changed since our last conversation?

07:29 - Signs of weakness?

09:31 - The key indicators of weakness

12:15 - Are we actually becoming more wealthy?

15:26 - Assessing the savings rate

17:02 - Berezin's model for analyzing the economy

20:04 - Is the lag kicking in now?

22:00 - Challenges in the banking system

24:37 - Are we seeing a tail wind from fiscal support?

27:11 - Why Berezin thinks the stock market is 50% overvalued

29:26 - Are AI companies in trouble?

35:51 - The long term economic impacts of AI

37:46 - Boosts in inventories: A tipping point to the economy?

40:17 - Berezin's outlook for Fed policy

42:47 - Rate cuts = recession?

45:42 - The state and outlook of the U.S housing market

47:25 - An unsustainable budget outlook

50:44 - Will we see a strengthening of the dollar?

52:19 - An upside for the yen

53:53 - A collective cutting of rates

55:06 - Has globalization run its course?

56:40 - The structural outlook for commodities

58:51 - What should you focus on?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI310: The Illusion of Backtests and True Drivers of Price ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 24 Aug 2024 07:30:00 +0100

Together with Richard Brennan we address the high level of volatility we have experienced this month and what airplane turbulence can teach us about periods of volatility. We also discuss why backtesting can’t predict future performance and what can be done to achieve achieve more realistic expectations of future risk and returns. We then dive into how investor behaviour drives price movement and how trend followers play a role in this, and why it may still make sense to include highly correlated assets in your trend following portfolio and more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:43 - What can trend followers learn from airplane turbulence?

11:48 - Industry performance update

18:24 - The limitations and pitfalls of relying solely on backtesting

33:42 - Advice for using in- and out-of-sample data

36:31 - How collective trader behaviour influences price movement

48:03 - How cocoa is the perfect example of investor behaviour and price movement

52:47 - Why highly correlated assets may still be beneficial to your portfolio

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL29: Technology: The Economic Dynamite ft. Mark Mills

Wed, 21 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode we welcome back Mark Mills, author of The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark was a guest on the show one year ago and many of the predictions he made then have come true. We revisit his view that simultaneous improvements in information, materials and machine technologies are about to unleash an economic boom. He explains the surge in power consumption related to AI and why this should not serve as a brake on its adoption if we employ sensible energy policies. He also discusses why mining will continue to expand and how manufacturing across all industries is evolving to be more like a service.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mark on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to Mark Mills

09:05 - What causes revolutions?

12:27 - How Artificial Intelligence will impact the energy sector

22:02 - Should we be worried about the energy consumption of AI?

29:10 - Are renewables and recycling a viable solution?

37:37 - Putting Mills in the shoes of a mining director

44:13 - The future of battery technology

48:48 - Manufacturing as a service - the new ecommerce?

52:39 - How choke points in manufacturing will challenge the economy

56:16 - Is the economy stronger than we think?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI309: Bonds Behaving Badly ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 17 Aug 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Along with Katy Kaminski, we discuss how the current disruptions in the economy and markets cause a change in investors’ behaviour. We dive deep into the interconnection between inflation, bonds and volatility and we discuss how to build a portfolio that performs well in economic downturns. We also discuss the difference between a crisis versus a correction and the evolution when it comes to "model speed" within the CTA industry, the importance of sticking to the process in times of uncertainty and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:15 - Have investors internalized the new Divergent economies and policies?

05:37 - Are investors mistaking convergence for divergence and vice versa?

08:57 - Industry performance update

17:19 - Connecting the dots

23:35 - Bonds - Why are they Behaving Badly?

27:59 - Conditional return distribution - what and why?

30:04 - Alternative markets and the 60/40 struggle

35:29 - The role of crisis alpha and a discussion on speed

42:42 - Thoughts on carry in the CTA industry

47:29 - Did the VIX really hit 65?

55:34 - Sticking to the process

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO25: Master Your Hedge Fund Allocation ft. John Jackson

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Join John Jackson, Global Head of Hedge Fund Research at Mercer, and Alan Dunne in this enlightening episode as they dive into the world of hedge fund selection! Discover how a leading institutional consultant selects hedge funds and builds robust portfolios. John shares his insights on why starting with manager selection is key to the portfolio construction process and how he integrates top-down considerations into the mix. The conversation delves into the roles different strategies play in a portfolio, how return expectations are set, and which strategies might thrive in a high-rate, volatile macro environment. John also takes us through Mercer’s rigorous process for researching and selecting new managers, what they look for in a manager, and potential red flags to watch out for. Plus, he sheds light on the importance of emerging managers, the AUM needed for a successful launch, and why he’s passionate about discovering these managers early on.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow John on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Introduction to John Jackson

05:40 - A changed environment for hedge funds?

08:42 - Best strategies for a high rates environment

11:50 - Are clients stuck in the past?

13:40 - A framework for building hedge fund allocations

18:13 - More art than science

19:15 - Define your objectives clearly

20:51 - A multi-strat dominance - pros and cons

25:14 - Getting comfort in your hedge fund strategies

28:32 - How to incorporate diversifying strategies in your portfolio

30:48 - How Jackson approaches return expectations

33:13 - Typical number of managers

34:00 - The role of hedge funds

35:44 - Their process of selecting managers

38:56 - What makes an opportunity compelling to them?

43:28 - How they trade in the systematic space

45:10 - Quant managers - are they any different?

47:08 - AI and machine learning in the quant space

49:25 - How important is transparency?

50:54 - Their process of deselecting and changing their manager roster

54:07 - Identifying talents in the manager space

56:18 - How much capital is needed to launch a macro fund?

57:52 - The pros and cons of committees

01:00:21 - Getting through the committee

01:02:12 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI308: Major Market Moves - What Now, Trend Followers? ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 10 Aug 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Following an eventful week with major market rotations, I'm joined by Nick Baltas to discuss the impact of this weeks turbulence on trend followers. We discuss how trend following strategies had already started to adapt to the market rotations in July and what the consequence of leaving the short fixed income trade behind meant for overall performance in August. We also discuss how the market rotations has changed investors’ perception of trend following speed and why there is no “one size fits all” when investing. Lastly, we discuss how risk management has evolved, how it impacts the trend following industry and if we can draw any parallels to previous market "events".

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:49 - Industry performance update

05:37 - An eventful week

11:22 - Putting the market rotations into context

18:58 - How have trend following strategies started to change recently?

26:40 - How trend following performs according to data

29:03 - How Baltas view the difference between dynamic and static position sizing?

34:07 - Has the perception of speed shifted after this week?

45:07 - How does this period compare to previous periods with market shocks?

50:17 - Zero day options - part of the problem?

54:58 - The evolution of risk management

01:02:10 - A recap of this week's headlines

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM67: Successful Investing in a Disrupted World ft. Aswath Damodaran

Wed, 07 Aug 2024 07:30:00 +0100

Aswath Damodaran, Professor of Finance at NYU Stern and a leading expert on valuation and corporate finance joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a fascinating and thought-provoking discussion on current markets and investing in general. They explore why Aswath believes we have witnessed the death of old-school value investing and how structural shifts in the economy have fundamentally altered the investing landscape. The discussion delves into the valuation of Nvidia and the Mag 7, questioning whether the hype around AI is justified. Aswath outlines his approach for long-term valuation, explains how he estimates the equity risk premium, and discusses what the current equity risk premium suggests for long-term equity market returns. They also cover the importance of bond yields for valuation, the shortcomings of P/E as a valuation measure, and whether assets without cash flows, like gold and crypto, can be valued. The episode wraps up with Aswath’s advice for becoming a better investor and preparing for an AI-driven future.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Aswath on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Aswath Damodaran

03:30 - Nvidia - bullish or bearish?

04:47 - How AI will impact the economy

10:48 - How to make better valuations in AI and technology stocks

14:36 - How to distinguish AI stocks from each other

17:58 - A sticky market

22:40 - How should you act to the AI boom as an investor?

31:07 - Are value investor becoming obsolete?

35:49 - What is the equity risk premium?

40:28 - How much equity risk premium is enough?

45:08 - Dealing with macro shocks and timing the markets

50:01 - Inflation and its impact on stocks

51:51 - Don't rely on the P/E ratio alone

53:08 - The link between GDP and earnings

54:31 - The importance of investing globally

57:35 - Can assets with no cash flows be valued?

58:27 - Managing the risk

01:01:56 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI307: The Unpinning of Volatility & How to Prepare for What is Coming ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 03 Aug 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Together with Cem Karsan, we discuss how the volatility space is experiencing major dispersion at the moment and how you can prepare your portfolio for the unpinning of volatility which we are experiencing. We also address how the groundbreaking events that have happened in the U.S. election recently might change the outcome of the election and what impact this will have on the economy. We discuss the core principles and mechanisms behind market moves and how Fed plays a pivotal role in this. And lastly, Cem explains how flows in financial systems and markets work and what you can do as an investor to stay well prepared.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:44 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:38 - A surprise question for Cem

06:26 - Industry performance update

08:59 - How are volatility strategies doing in general in 2024?

14:59 - Suggestions for which volatility indices to use

16:35 - Q1, Zach: How would someone use a systematic trading system to purchase and sell put options?

20:12 - Q2, Rick: With all the talk about USD and rates, does anyone have a view on how a possible unwind of the USD/Yen carry trade could impact markets? DO we know the size of this?

24:19 - Trump 2.0 - better, faster, stronger?

34:30 - An unfathomable situation

38:38 - The mechanisms behind market moves

47:14 - More conflict incoming?

50:37 - What causes stress in the financial systems?

01:01:50 - The wobble is happening

01:05:51 - What is up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL28: The Transformation of the 21st Century Economy ft. Ernest Scheyder

Wed, 31 Jul 2024 08:15:00 +0100

In this episode we speak to Ernest Scheyder, an award-winning journalist, senior correspondent for Reuters and author of the acclaimed new book: The War Below: Lithium, Copper and the Global Battle to Power Our Lives. We can’t have green energy without mining. But there is no way around the fact that mining is loud, dangerous and disruptive. Our conversation explores this tension that sits at the center of the energy transition. We also discuss new technologies for mineral extraction and recycling that have the potential to resolve some of these conflicts if they can be commercialized.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Ernest on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Ernest Scheyder

03:11 - Why are lithium and copper so important?

05:44 - The outlook of the U.S lithium production

09:12 - Who is Ioneer and the environmental impact of lithium production

17:26 - What is Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) and why is it important?

23:17 - Supply and demand in lithium

25:02 - The challenges of recycling batteries

31:07 - Is a fully circular economy even possible?

34:14 - The negative consequences of copper mining

39:19 - A part of the people

41:53 - The complexities of tribal relations in the U.S.

43:46 - Is outsourcing copper mining morally irresponsible?

47:25 - The challenges of attracting labour in the mining industry

52:00 - How did Scheyder approach the writing of his book?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI306: If Trend Following was an Olympic Sport... ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 27 Jul 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Together with Mark Rzepczynski we discuss how the activist treasury issurance of more bills than coupons have provided more quantitative easing and why we are seeing a decline in concern for inflation and rising interest rates. Mark also shares key insights to why building a system is more important than building models and what you can use a backtest for, and we discuss whether investors should focus mostly on stocks or bonds in their portfolio. We also discuss why you should include trend following in your portfolio and ways to assess macro economic risk, how AI will impact the trend following industry, how the hot hand fallacy applies to investing and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:54 - If trend following was an Olympic sport, which one would it be?

03:17 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:20 - Bills = money?

09:59 - A declining concern for rising rates and inflation?

13:38 - Industry performance update

16:01 - Q1, Philippe: When to remove an asset as a trend follower??

26:10 - "I've never seen a bad backtest"

31:56 - Simplicity vs. complexity

35:26 - Stocks or bonds - what should you prefer?

40:18 - Why you should have trend following in your portfolio

48:50 - How to assess true macro economic risk

53:33 - Machine learning and AI in systematic trading

01:00:22 - The hot hand fallacy

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM66: Trump Trade and the 3 Legged Stool ft. MacroAlf & Cem Karsan

Wed, 24 Jul 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Alfonso Peccatiello joins us for a compelling discussion on today’s challenging macroeconomic environment. Alongside my co-host Cem Karsan, we explore the impacts of massive debts, weak public sector balance sheets, and rising wealth inequality. We delve into how polarized electorates and global economic fragmentation are reshaping policies, discussing the economic implications of new tariffs, a weaker Dollar, and the prospects for Gold and Bitcoin. Alfonso shares his insights on rising interest rates and inflation, emphasizing the crucial role of central bank policies in shaping market dynamics. We also touch upon the potential impacts of geopolitical tensions and speculate on the effects of possible future scenarios, like a Trump presidency, on the global economy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:45 - The impact of rising rates and inflation on the global economy

10:29 - Inflation expectations and the Trump trade

18:38 - What kind of inflation are we dealing with now?

27:10 - What caused a change in MacroAlf's view on inflation

34:16 - It's all about getting the distribution right

46:26 - Alf's perspective on the U.S. Election

51:20 - What will a win for Trump mean for the global economy?

55:38 - Could the U.S. lose their AAA rating?

01:02:31 - A "Golden" idea

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI305: Building A Hedge Fund Allocation ft. Alan Dunne

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 09:30:00 +0100

Together with Alan Dunne, we take the temperature of the current state of affairs in the U.S. election and how the election impacts the economy and markets. Alan also shares his advice for allocator looking to start a new trend following fund and we discuss how fees are currently the big differentiator in the CTA space, with one manager increasing it's performance fee to 30%. We also discuss the "Dual Mandate of Managed Futures Strategies" and how how different frequencies of skewness affect strategies and delves into the use of "delay" by pure trend managers to smooth returns. We continue our conversation on the topic of Building a Hedge Fund Allocation, diving into the considerations and strategies involved in creating a robust hedge fund portfolio and more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:02 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:38 - How we utilize AI in our own work

09:14 - Price on fossil hit an all time high

09:54 - The FOMO narrative in investing

11:52 - Alan's thoughts on the state of affairs in the U.S. Election

19:50 - An unsustainable path

24:37 - Industry performance update

27:58 - Q1, Ciaran: What are allocators looking for in a new trend following fund?

34:25 - Fees - the big differentiator

38:46 - Key takeaway from the paper "Skew Spectrum"

48:20 - Paper on building a hedge fund allocation

01:00:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK SI305: Building a Hedge Fund Allocation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM65: Why Fed Will Raise Rates Next Year ft. Adam Posen

Wed, 17 Jul 2024 14:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Alan Dunne welcomes former central banker and current President of the Peterson Institute, Adam Posen, to discuss the economic outlook and monetary policy. Posen explains why he believes markets are mistaken in expecting rate cuts next year and identifies the key factors driving stronger economic growth. They explore global central banking and monetary policy, examining the successes and challenges of inflation targeting, the models used by central banks, and the most important variables to monitor for policy decisions. Posen also discusses why inflation targeting may become more challenging in the coming years and argues that less forward guidance from policymakers could be beneficial. They discuss the outlook for fiscal policy for the next administration and Posen explains that while a fiscal crisis is not his base case, he foresees significant upside risks to bond yields in the coming years.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Adam Posen

05:45 - Was it all about luck?

07:40 - Was the Covid19 period handled the wrong way economically?

12:06 - Are we going into more challenging times for inflation targeting?

13:56 - The political pressure on central banks

16:48 - The challenges of inflation targeting

23:47 - A micro-managing nightmare?

29:50 - What are the most important factors for policy makers?

35:16 - The lags of monetary policy

39:47 - How the structure of the economy impacts the monetary transmission mechanism

48:15 - Posen's view on the economy

51:07 - Are central banks inflating the debt away?

53:49 - A Fiscal crisis incoming?

01:00:10 - Artificial Intelligence - a game changer?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI304: Taking the Trend Following Temperature with Man AHL ft. Graham Robertson

Sat, 13 Jul 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by our special guest, Graham Robertson who is Partner and Head of Client Portfolio Management at Man AHL, for a wide-ranging conversation about trend following. We discuss how trend following has stood out in recent years and why April 2024 was especially noteworthy, and how Graham views the current interest from investors around the world. We also address to what extent trend following should play a role in your portfolio and what type of environment tends to influence overall performance for the industry based on Principal Component Analysis. Lastly, we discuss how AI might impact the trend following industry, and whether Trend Followers have started saying goodbye to the short fixed income traded, that lasted for more than 2 years.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Graham on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:56 - Introduction to Graham Robertson

03:40 - How Graham came across trend following

04:56 - Graham's observations in 2024 so far

08:03 - Is China becoming an easier market to trade?

09:01 - How to deal with uncomfortable markets

11:17 - Why April was an interesting month for trend followers

14:54 - A discussion on trend following performance

20:45 - Industry performance update

22:03 - How Man AHL assess the interest in trend following and CTA strategies

26:37 - Rating the climate for interest in trend following

31:46 - Which regions or countries are most interested in trend following?

34:16 - Why ESG means different things to different strategies

38:05 - How much should investors allocate to trend following?

41:05 - How to change people's minds about trend following

43:59 - Changing the narrative in the trend following industry

47:28 - Man AHL's general approach to research

55:15 - Graham's perspective on AI in the trend following industry

01:00:20 - A new approach to 60/40

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI09: The Key to Trend Following Success ft. Cole Wilcox

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert and Cole Wilcox from Longboard Asset Management speak about systematic trend following strategies applied to single stocks, including the many advantages compared to long only buy and hold, but also some of the challenges and technical details related to portfolio construction. Cole is the founder and CEO of Longboard Asset Management, an Arizona-based alternatives fund management firm. He explains why participating in some of the big outlier price moves in mid and small cap stocks is as important as cutting out the many stock which don’t perform, in other words, avoiding the failures while having a systematic process that allows for taking part in the upside are both important.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Cole on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Cole Wilcox and Longboard Asset Management

08:27 - Diving deep into the strategy

10:45 - What drives the alpha of their strategy?

15:41 - Understanding your investor base

18:07 - Understanding their correlation

19:31 - Thoughts on including international stocks

24:15 - Do they fully fund their portfolio?

27:52 - How they approach dividends

29:14 - Do they loan out stocks?

30:34 - Did they ever trade single stock futures in the Bond Chicago Exchange?

32:36 - How many names do they have in their portfolio on the long side

33:12 - Dilution vs. concentration

37:15 - The impact of volatility drag

39:43 - Improving the experience of investing

42:01 - A compliment or full portfolio strategy?

45:57 - What are the most important lessons they have learned?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI303: The Unstoppable Volpocalypse ft. Cem Karsan & Alan Dunne

Sat, 06 Jul 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan joins Alan Dunne in this week’s episode to discuss global macro developments and key events to monitor in the coming months. They explore the shifting market microstructure and how volatility supply from structured products is impacting dispersion, correlation, and the value of breadth as a market indicator. Cem outlines his outlook on volatility trading for the coming months, highlighting key dates in the options calendar that may become focal points as the year progresses. They also examine the wealth effect resulting from rising stock prices, discussing how this reflexive process influences market dynamics and what it means for identifying potential turning points for equities. Finally, they delve into the elections in the UK, France, and the US, consider the likelihood of Biden being replaced and discuss to what the extent the market is pricing in a Trump victory.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:59 - Industry performance update

06:30 - The outlook for volatility supply

09:01 - Braking the volatility cascade

11:47 - Is the Yen in trouble?

13:51 - Is bread becoming unreliable?

19:57 - When does it all end?

24:38 - What should you monitor as an investor?

27:46 - When will we begin to see increased risk?

33:09 - What will drive the increasing volatility?

35:10 - The election from a volatility perspective

42:46 - Volatility from a market pricing perspective

45:36 - How will a win for Trump impact the economy?

47:56 - Looking outside of the U.S.

53:06 - Similar volatility supply dynamics in Europe?

54:52 - Good times ahead for gold?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM64: Why the Economy is Vulnerable to Recession ft. Claudia Sahm

Wed, 03 Jul 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Alan Dunne is joined by Claudia Sahm, Chief Economist at New Century Advisors and creator of the Sahm Rule, to discuss the current macroeconomic outlook. They explore the state of the US labour market and what the Sahm Rule reveals about the economy's current condition. They discuss the conflicting signals in today’s macroeconomic data and hear why Claudia believes the economy is more vulnerable to recession now than in recent years. They also discuss the decline in inflation over the past year, evaluating whether it was influenced by monetary policy and its implications for future policy decisions. Finally, they examine the shift towards more active fiscal and industrial policies and consider whether debt sustainability will become a key issue for the next US administration.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Claudia on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Claudia Sahm

04:26 - The background behind the Sahm Rule

08:34 - Does the current data call for a recession?

12:37 - Putting the data together

18:16 - Is the unemployment rate the most reliable indicator for recession?

23:51 - What can we rely on as investors?

29:48 - What is unusual about this inflation cycle?

35:32 - The balance of the dual mandate

40:42 - The state of physical policy

45:32 - The growth picture from a long term perspective

50:32 - The positive sides of inflation

53:17 - Book recommendations and advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI302: The Negative Crisis Beta and CTA's Hidden Market Timing Skills ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 29 Jun 2024 10:00:00 +0100

This week, Alan Dunne chats with Nick Baltas about CTAs' negative crisis beta and their hidden market timing skills. Nick and Alan tackle the question of how to build an effective trend-following program as part of a larger multi-asset portfolio, in relation to the markets traded and speed of system and tie in insights from a recent Quantica paper. They weigh the benefits of unconstrained trend-following programs versus those with capped equity beta. Plus, they discuss the ideal level of volatility for running an investment program and take a closer look at a Resolve Asset Management paper on the best ways to construct carry strategies.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:23 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:00 - Industry performance update

05:32 - Reversions incoming?

07:06 - Q1: Regarding how to choose instruments in your trend following algorithm

14:20 - Getting the speed right

17:37 - Q2: At what point does volatility put an investor in a danger zone?

24:32 - Discussing the paper "Negative Crisis Beta" from Quantica

38:16 - Capping the beta

45:17 - The hidden market timing of CTAs

50:23 - The benefits of adding carry to your portfolio

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM63: War Without Rules ft. General Robert Spalding

Wed, 26 Jun 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Join us as Cem Karsan and I explore China's plan for global dominance with retired General Robert Spalding, author of "War Without Rules." General Spalding discusses the rising tensions between China and the West, pointing out warning signs from the past two decades and mistakes made by the West. We delve into China's long-term strategy for world domination and its impact on investment strategies. We also question if TikTok is being used by China as a weapon against the West. Additionally, we examine the decline of democracy, the rise of autocracy, and the challenges democracies face in competing with autocracies. Finally, General Spalding highlights the importance of protecting digital infrastructure from cyber threats and decentralizing it for resilient communication, a mission he passionately pursues with his company, SEMPRE.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Robert on Twitter and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:49 - Introduction to General Robert Spalding

03:38 - What did Spalding learn from flying B-2 airplanes?

08:44 - Who is Spalding's criticism aimed towards?

10:33 - A visionary perspective

15:37 - TikTok - The ultimate weapon?

21:37 - Is the West as "bad" as China?

30:49 - How do the West compete on a level playing field against autocracy?

42:28 - Spalding's view on the conflict between China and Taiwan

54:29 - How hot can a cold war get?

58:31 - Is there no way back?

01:00:51 - The vulnerability of infrastructure and data

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI301: The AI Hype within Investing...a Step Too Far? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 22 Jun 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Today, Rob Carver shares his insights on buying put options as a tail risk strategy and how trend following can also play a part in tail risk protection...but perhaps not they way some investors may think. Rob also shares his advice for using carry in your strategies when trading rolling futures contracts. We then pivot to hear Rob's thoughts on why the U.S. election appears to be the perfect storm, and we discuss what the outcome of the election will mean for the economy. Rob also explain why he is sceptical about the AI hype and the liability issues that AI poses. Lastly, we discuss the challenges of setting the right level of fees as a manager and how investors may complain about the higher level of fees the multi-billion $ managers charge...yet still chose to invest with them.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:26 - A quick talk on football (soccer)

02:09 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:26 - An update on Rob's portfolio.?

09:37 - Industry performance update

12:07 - Q1, Steve: What are Rob's advice for systematic buying of put options as a tail risk strategy?

26:51 - Q2, Luis: Regarding how to use carry in your strategies when you roll from a contract to the next one

33:39 - A discussion on elections

38:36 - The U.S election - a perfect storm?

44:41 - Should you be cautious about the AI hype?

57:04 - Finding the right level of fees that investors should pay?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI08: Trend Following...Austrian Style ft. Michael Neubauer & Joseph Waldstein from SMN

Wed, 19 Jun 2024 15:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein from SMN Investment Services, a Vienna, Austria-based systematic trend following manager with a 28-year track record. Michael and Joseph explain how they initially got interested in trend following and how their systems have evolved over the years. Moreover, the discuss why trading many different markets – as many as possible – is important for their approach, and that the inclusion of synthetic markets such as spreads and baskets as well as less liquid exotic/alternative markets improves SMN’s risk-adjusted returns. Last but not least, Michael and Joseph explain why they trade VIX futures and why this is a market they trade with a different methodology given the mean-reversion pattern of variance, and how they are monitoring this market – and potentially exiting open positions - on an hourly basis.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Joseph on LinkedIn.

Follow Michael on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Michael Neubauer and Joseph Waldstein

05:52 - How did they learn about trend following?

14:18 - The perfect match?

15:12 - What drove their decision to discretionary overlays?

16:52 - What is causing dispersion in the trend following space?

19:32 - The dangers of overoptimization

23:00 - What are their definition of risk?

27:20 - Are more markets better?

33:21 - Their research process

37:18 - What is their smallest and least liquid market they trade?

39:01 - How they use synthetic markets in their trading

41:20 - Their considerations about cash equities

43:30 - Why are they trading the VIX index?

46:36 - What is the outlook for trend following?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI300: Finding the Optimal Trend Following Rules ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 15 Jun 2024 08:45:00 +0100

Together with Richard Brennan, we discuss the optimal way of doing trend following and how to find the optimal set of rules to use in different market regimes, how to examine market states through Markov models and how artificial intelligence will impact trend following and make short-term trading incredibly competitive. Lastly, we ask ChatGPT what the optimal way of doing trend following is.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

04:03 - Industry performance update

07:50 - Q1, Dennis: Given the nature of lengthy hold periods, do you recommend trading cash CFD's accounting for the overnight costs?

11:40 - Q2, Ramki: Using ATR for position sizing when backtesting a trend following system

14:47 - Optimal rules to use in different kinds of market regimes

18:46 - How to use Markov models and mathematical algorithms to optimize trend following strategies

41:17 - Is trend following threatened by AI?

51:39 - "ChatGPT, what is the optimal way of doing trend following?"

Resources discussed in this Episode:

SI300: Optimal Trend Following Rules Paper

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL27: Unlocking the Secrets of Great Communication ft. Charles Duhigg

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 05:00:00 +0100

In this episode, we speak with Charles Duhigg, a renowned author and writer for The New Yorker, who won the 2013 Pulitzer Prize for exploratory journalism. His book, "The Power of Habit," spent three years on the New York Times bestseller list. Charles joins us to discuss his new book, "Supercommunicators: How to Unlock the Secret Language of Connection." Our conversation centers around the importance of effective communication in personal and professional relationships, including in the investment industry. Charles explains how to become a "supercommunicator" and outlines the four rules for meaningful conversations. He highlights the types of questions top communicators ask and what we can say or do to make our conversations more meaningful and productive. Finally, we explore the unique rules of communication in the digital age and the distinction between communication and manipulation.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Charles on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Charles Duhigg

06:30 - Every conversation is a negotiation

09:21 - It takes two to tango?

11:09 - The importance of listening

13:42 - The magic of understanding each other

15:05 - What is stopping us from having deep connections?

18:40 - How to ask the right questions

23:18 - Advice for having meaningful conversations

28:02 - The business value of deep connections

31:27 - The importance of non-verbal communication

36:28 - How to match the mood of other people

38:48 - The role of identities in communication

42:23 - What does Duhigg means with "identity threat"?

47:48 - How does it apply online?

51:11 - Communication vs. manipulation

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI299: Sharing the Trend Following Pie ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 08 Jun 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer where we discuss the outlook for inflation and why Andrew believes there is an existential crisis in macro economic modelling. We then touch on the question "if trend followers might be the only true short sellers left" as well as how to deal with the lag effect when using replication models. We round off our conversation discussing why Andrew believes we should all “share the trend following pie” and why the managed futures space is stalling when it comes to AuM, why he believes that money is “packed anxiety” for most people, why the ETF space needs an injection of positivity and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:44 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:04 - Is what we thought was "normal" Real Yields actually not normal?

09:30 - Are the trend followers the only true short sellers left?

19:09 - How do CTAs react to the lower prices?

21:35 - Industry performance update

23:00 - Q1, Joe: How do you deal with the lag effect in replication models?

32:36 - Let's share the trend following pie

40:38 - The disadvantages of the institutional world

43:56 - Why is the managed futures space not growing?

49:49 - A crazy story from Andrew

56:26 - Are low-cost offers killing the industry?

01:02:39 - The ETF costs dont add up?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM62: How to Build a Future-Proof Portfolio ft. Bob Elliott

Wed, 05 Jun 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Today, Cem and I welcome Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds and former right-hand man to Ray Dalio at Bridgewater. Bob shares what he learned from his decade at Bridgewater and discusses the unique income-led economic expansion currently happening in the US, contrasting it with typical credit-driven expansions. He also explains why most investors are wrongly positioned in today's macro landscape and how they can create a balanced and diversified portfolio. Bob emphasizes the importance of optimizing portfolio allocation to protect against market volatility and unpredictability, and he discusses how to gain access to alternative investments, along with the challenges these assets present. Finally, Cem provides an update on his outlook for 2024.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Bob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:42 - What Bob learnt from working close to Ray Dalio?

04:24 - The secret to Bridgewaters success

07:17 - Elliott's perspective on the current global macro framework

10:46 - The outlook for interest rates

15:31 - Is inflation here to stay?

20:48 - The outlook for asset allocation

25:48 - The role of demographics

30:04 - A collective memory

32:53 - Advice for achieving a balanced and diversified portfolio

36:37 - Elliott's approach to diversification

42:22 - How to get access to alternative markets

46:24 - What drove Elliott intro replication?

51:45 - Why the majority of investors are invested in the wrong way

57:15 - The state of the global exchange rate markets

01:00:44 - Are US stocks trading as Cem exptected into the June Opex?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI298: The Trend Following ETF Revolution ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 01 Jun 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Together with Katy Kaminski, we dive deep into the ETF space to better understand how you can utilize a new wave of ETFs as an investor. Katy describes the transition many Trend Following managers have gone through to get into the ETF space and how you can integrate the Trend Following ETFs in your own portfolio. We discuss if or how due diligence in the ETF space may be different from traditional due diligence and the different paths into the ETF space managers have chosen. We also discuss fee considerations when building ETF models and how to choose the right replicator, and if we are likely to have too many firms replicating the same few CTA indices. We end our conversation with some thoughts on how AI will impact the trend following industry and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:56 - Industry performance update

07:41 - Our thoughts on CTA offerings in the ETF space

13:40 - Is giving people more liquidity a good thing?

17:32 - Why include ETFs in your portfolio?

21:43 - Use cases for ETFs

25:00 - How does the due diligence process work in the ETF space?

28:58 - Are we becoming a Relative Return industry?

32:01 - Is the increasing trader anonymity a problem?

34:33 - The different paths into the ETF space

40:57 - How ETFs compare to classic managed futures products

43:30 - Should you consider fees when building ETF models?

47:32 - How to choose the right replicator

51:06 - How AI might affect the trend following industry

56:55 - A red card to AI?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM61: The New Politics: Neoliberal Decline and Authoritarian Rise ft. Gary Gerstle

Wed, 29 May 2024 14:00:00 +0100

Join Alan Dunne in conversation with Gary Gerstle, Professor of American History at the University of Cambridge and author of "The Rise and Fall of The Neoliberal Order", as they delve into the shifting landscape of the global political order. From the decline of the New Deal Order to the ramifications of the Global Financial Crisis, Gary traces the trajectory of the Neoliberal Order and its impact on contemporary society. Exploring the nuances of Bidenomics, they analyse the sustainability of current fiscal and industrial policies amidst rising inequality and geopolitical tensions. Gary shares insights on the potential rise of authoritarianism worldwide, the implications of protectionism, and the prospect of increased antitrust activism in the US. Finally, they turn their attention to the upcoming US presidential elections, examining the contenders and the pivotal factors that could shape the outcome.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on X

Follow Gary on X

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Garry Gerstle

05:50 - Understanding political order and neoliberalism

12:04 - How important are the economic principles in dismantling the neoliberal order?

20:06 - What will drive the new political order?

29:01 - How the West's approach to China has changed

36:19 - Do banks have too much power?

43:34 - Is the U.S deficit a constraint going forward?

47:24 - The 4 freedoms of neoliberalism

53:34 - The challenges of the technological evolution

01:02:16 - Thoughts on how the election might end up

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

Si297: Trend Following as a Return Enhancement Overlay ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 25 May 2024 07:30:00 +0100

In today’s episode, Alan Dunne helps us uncover the latest news and data within the global macro landscape. We also discuss the state of the quant macro space, how it compares to trend following and what allocators should consider when comparing the two. Then we break down how family offices are looking to allocate assets at the moment before we turn our attention to a potential new narrative within the trend following world - namely, how trend following can be used as an return enhancement overlay, instead of "crisis alpha". We also dive deep into fees and returns in the multi-strategy space and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:01 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:58 - Is OpenAI falling apart?

09:19 - U.K. and European Parliament elections - should investors care?

11:52 - What is neoliberalism?

12:54 - Unpacking the current global macro landscape

19:07 - Are central banks defeating their own purpose?

22:42 - Industry performance update

25:39 - What is going on with quant macro?

32:00 - Trend follower or quant macro fund - what is hardest to analyze?

34:39 - How are family offices looking to allocate assets currently?

37:43 - Any allocation to whiskey?

39:31 - Trend following: Return Enhancement Overlay or Crisis Alpha?

47:13 - Advice for using trend following as an enhancement overlay

49:46 - How multi-strategy funds achieve smooth return streams

01:00:09 - Multi-strat managers - contact us!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL26: How New Technologies Will Shape the Economy ft. Koen De Leus & Philippe Gijsels

Wed, 22 May 2024 08:00:00 +0100

In this episode we speak to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels. Koen is Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis and Philippe is Chief Strategist. They are co-authors of The New World Economy in 5 Trends: Investing in Times of Superinflation, Hyperinnovation and Climate Transition. We talk about how technologies like AI, 3D printing will drive economic growth and why they are likely to create more jobs than they destroy. Another important trend from a market perspective is the potential for a doubling of the gold price and possibility of a new ‘super cycle’ for industrial metals.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Koen on LinkedIn and read his book.

Follow Philippe on LinkedIn and read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introduction to Koen De Leus and Philippe Gijsels

06:22 - Why haven't we seen higher productivity?

12:11 - What is the chance that productivity could increase?

17:36 - When can we expect productivity to increase?

19:51 - Will AI "steal" our jobs?

24:43 - How you can navigate in the AI trends as an investor

32:17 - Is it even possible for "normal" investors to benefit from AI?

35:26 - Is the energy transition a good investment?

40:51 - A new commodity or metal super cycle?

45:10 - Exploiting the commodity trends

48:12 - Is natural gas a good transition fuel?

52:01 - Why is Philippe so positive on gold?

56:48 - What are their inflation expectations?

01:02:19 - Challenging years ahead?

01:08:00 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI296: Is Trend Following Becoming Too Complicated? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 18 May 2024 12:00:00 +0100

Mark Rzepczynski is back to discuss the latest investor sentiment survey from Societe Generale’s Capital Consulting team, to find out what strategies investors are losing interest in and which are seeing more demand right now. We also dig into how the performance of economies greatly depends on the type of government policies and how going from multilateralism to bilateralism impacts trend following, the complexity of being a systematic manager and the phalacy of consensus. Mark also explains why we need to look beyond price and consider the drivers of price, what the VUCA framework is and how/why to use it, whether trend following is becoming too complicated and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:39 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:59 - Which Alternative Strategies do Investors Want...latest survey?

12:17 - Discussing the data

18:30 - Industry performance update

21:26 - Is the rise of the Chinese stock market legit?

25:08 - From multilateralism to bilateralism

29:42 - The difference between the ideal vs. reality manager

36:31 - The fallacy of consensus

40:23 - Using economic data as a trend follower

43:14 - Is price truth?

47:38 - VUCA - what, why and how?

54:50 - Applying VUCA to trend following

57:46 - Is trend following becoming too complicated?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO24: Managing Money Through Structural Shifts ft. Richard Urwin

Wed, 15 May 2024 07:30:00 +0100

Richard Urwin, Chair of the Investment Committee at Saranac Partners, the $6bn UK wealth manager, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how he is approaching asset allocation at the current juncture. They discuss how long term valuations and asset class return forecast help inform Saranac’s strategic asset allocation and delve into some of the structural forces that may influence the economic outlook and asset class returns in the coming decade. While shifting demographics, climate change, high deficits and rising debt levels all have the potential to contribute to higher inflation and higher bond yields, Richard is cautious about being too pessimistic about the outlook and sees good opportunity in credit and alternative assets and strategies. They also discuss how Saranac think about selecting and sizing hedge funds in their portfolios and how this has changed in a higher interest rate environment.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Richard Urwin

06:31 - A noticeable shift?

08:49 - What is Saranac's investment philosophy?

13:06 - Dealing with structural shifts as an asset allocator

18:07 - How confident are they in forecasts?

24:24 - Balancing competing forces

30:08 - How Saranac builds balanced portfolios

33:55 - Do they consider supply shocks in their portfolios?

40:00 - The dangers of pessimism

44:27 - Their approach to alternative assets and strategies

48:38 - Their perspective on high-risk managers

51:15 - Their manager selection process

55:06 - How does the current environment dictate investing?

58:13 - About Urwin's PhD on option pricing

01:02:40 - Advice for other allocators

01:05:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI295: Trend Followers - The Unwanted Party Guests? ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 11 May 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Together with Nick Baltas, we dive into trading signal direction and discuss if signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction, based on CFM’s paper on Agnostic Risk Parity. Baltas also explains why allocating risk to where opportunity lies is prudent as well as why trend following is a powerful tool to achieve a broad risk allocation. Based on Baltas’ recent paper in the Financial Times, we also discuss equity momentum and why trend followers might be the “unwanted guests at the party”.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - What has been on our radar recently?

12:36 - Industry performance update - how is May so far?

15:45 - New Ultimate Guide out now...How to get your Free copy!

16:38 - Q1, Peter: Should signal direction always trump signal strength in portfolio construction?

27:39 - Q1.1 Peter: Is it reasonable to aim for broadly equal risk allocations across different asset classes?

35:19 - Q1.2 Peter: If you were an institutional investor with an ultra-long time horizon, a stomach for short-term volatility and a mandate to deliver the highest possible CAGR over the long-term, how much of your portfolio would you allocate to systematic trend-following?

39:22 - Q1.3 Peter: Do you agree with Anthony Todd's description of trend alpha coming in bursts?

46:54 - Discussing Nick's paper in the Financial Times

57:48 - What kind of party guest would a trend follower be?

59:09 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO23: Behind the Scenes of a High Net Worth Investor ft. Tad Fallows

Wed, 08 May 2024 08:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Tad Fallows, Founder of Long Angle, a community for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth investors, joins Alan Dunne for a fascinating chat on how they approach asset allocation and find niche investment opportunities. Tad speaks about the typical risk appetite of his co-investors, highlighting how age and generation of wealth shape the risk profile of members. He talks about investments in private equity, alternative assets, and their investment strategies in the shifting macro landscape. Tad highlights why hedge funds may seem less appealing to them but why he has a lot of interest in trend following. He also speaks to some of the more esoteric investments his group makes such as whiskey aging, and talks about their crypto exposure. Finally, he highlights the importance of intuition and high conviction when making investment deals.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Tad on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:34 - Introduction to Tad Fallows

12:38 - The risk appetite of Long Angle investors

15:45 - What defines the Long Angle community?

19:52 - Why not the traditional route?

23:14 - How are they allocated?

27:20 - How they incorporate private equity in their portfolio

35:02 - How much of their returns are resilient to changes in global macro?

40:18 - Micro or macro?

45:08 - Taking advantage of inefficiencies in markets

47:04 - Why are they staying away from hedge funds?

49:32 - Why are they using trend following?

52:24 - Their thoughts on crypto

56:29 - Generating ideas and finding priorities

01:01:29 - Advice for other investors

01:07:05 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI294: Lowering the Cost of being Long Commodities ft. Hari Krishnan

Sat, 04 May 2024 12:45:00 +0100

Hari Krishnan returns to the show for a deep dive into commodities. He helps us understand why investing in commodities is not as easy as other markets and why he believes that we are entering a commodity super cycle. We also discuss how to overcome the challenges of holding and storing commodities and why cheap commodities are not always so cheap once you start rolling your futures position. We talk about where his new “virtual storage” concept can add value to a trend following system and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What is catching our attention recently?

06:53 - A recap of April

10:14 - Hari's thoughts on trend following

14:30 - The interesting commodities

18:10 - A commodity super cycle inbound?

20:36 - BUT...Commodity Bulls used the same arguments in 2022

22:51 - How commodity storage functions

29:57 - Balancing divergence and convergence

32:26 - How virtual commodity storage works

35:55 - The role of trend following in a regime-based participation

42:47 - How consistent is the virtual warehousing approach?

47:06 - Manual or systematized?

48:59 - Overcoming the challenges of commodities

53:44 - What markets can the method be applied to?

54:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM60: Preparing Your Portfolio for the Second Half of 2024 ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

Wed, 01 May 2024 15:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Cem and I welcome Christian Mueller Glissman back on the show, and together, we tackle the intricacies of capital allocation in 2024, particularly amid the pivotal elections we expect to see. We discuss the pros and cons of starting with a 60/40 portfolio allocation strategy. Cem and Christian highlight Europe's resilience to inflation and its potential energy cost advantages, making it an attractive investment destination. We also analyze how election cycles, especially during populist periods like now, influence the economy and markets. Christian shares insights on using structured products to manage volatility, and both he and Cem strongly advocate for strategies like trend following in current market conditions. Finally, we discuss what an optimal portfolio allocation should include in 2024.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Christian's current big picture macro framework

07:22 - The role of volatility in inflation

12:20 - Should the 60/40 portfolio always be your starting point?

21:02 - What are the risks of the 60/40 portfolio not being the starting point?

27:37 - A scary situation in Europe?

32:16 - How election periods affect the economy

40:22 - A wall of worry

43:30 - Christian's thoughts on using structured products to reduce volatility

48:03 - A push-pull effect

51:41 - Is trend following the solution?

54:39 - The optimal portfolio in 2024

01:01:04 - A time of opportunity?

01:03:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI293: Market Outlook for the Rest of 2024 & EOY S&P500 level ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 27 Apr 2024 14:30:00 +0100

Today, I'm joined by Cem Karsan to discuss how speculations in markets affect the economy and Cem presents his view on the current state of global macro as well as a forecast for the rest of the year. How do conflicts around the world affect the global economy and why does Cem believe that we are going into a “dangerous period”? Why does Cem believe options are key to making profit from different scenarios and outcomes and what are the possibilities of seeing US rate cuts later this year? We also discuss how the U.S election will impact the economy and where Cem believes the equity markets will finish the year and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:47 - What has been on our radar recently?

02:22 - What is the talk of the town in the vol space at the moment?

03:11 - Industry performance update

05:27 - Q1: What is Cem's view on the impact of call speculation on the VIX?

12:17 - Cem's perspective on the current state of global macro

18:09 - Important market development recently?

31:40 - Making profit from different scenarios

35:48 - The structure of markets

42:23 - Are rate cuts coming?

48:10 - How the U.S election will change the economic narrative

53:32 - The pros and cons of a win for Trump

56:49 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM59: The Geopolitical Tug-of-War: Russia, China & the West ft. Marko Papic

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 10:00:00 +0100

Join us for an eye-opening discussion on global power dynamics with geopolitics expert Marko Papic, alongside Cem Karsan and myself, where we dive deep into the ongoing tug-of-war between the West, Russia, China, and the rest of the world. Marko sheds light on the United States' push for a clear bipolar world order. He shares his insights on whether the world as we know it is coming to an end and why a Trump presidency may pave the way for trade deals and foreign policy agreements, particularly with rivals like China. Looking ahead, Marko discusses Europe's industrial sector and explains why investing in European industrials could be a smart move. Finally, we explore the complexities of the relationship between Russia and China. Are they as close as we think? And is China's dream of becoming the next superpower within reach? We also delve into the possibility of China's move to invade Taiwan and what it would entail.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Marko on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Marko's current macro framework

07:20 - Moving towards a multi-polar world

14:43 - How is now different from back in the days?

23:36 - Trump landing the deglobalization plane

31:48 - The election - a macro black hole

36:47 - The new world from a non-US perspective

44:18 - What happens with Ukraine?

49:50 - An increased risk for bigger global conflicts?

56:15 - Creating strong relationships

01:02:50 - Will China invade Taiwan in the next 5 years?

01:05:30 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI292: Is Cocoa becoming Too Hot for Trend Followers? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 20 Apr 2024 02:00:00 +0100

Today, Rob Carver joins me to answer questions about MatLab as a backtesting tool, why you should be careful to apply trend following in crypto and what Rob think about seasonality and relative value as strategies. We also dive into why Rob has increased his allocation to trend following and his thought process when building portfolios, how the surging price of cocoa has impacted the trend following industry and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:05 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:15 - Industry performance update

09:54 - Q1, Paul: Where can I learn MatLab?

13:38 - Q2, Byleth: What is Rob's experience with trend in crypto?

20:41 - Q3, Tauras: What are Rob's thoughts on seasonality and relative value as strategies?

26:23 - Are strategies like seasonality convergent?

27:14 - Rob's thoughts on relative value as a strategy

32:00 - Shock! Horror! I've increased my CTA allocation

41:07 - Rob's thought process on portfolio allocation

46:19 - Vol scaling with a nice cup of hot cocoa

57:43 - Path-dependence vs. non-path dependence

59:53 - Final thoughts and a cliff hanger

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL25: Any Happy Returns... the Next Super Cycle? ft. Peter Oppenheimer

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 03:00:00 +0100

In this episode Peter Oppenheimer, Chief Global Strategist and Head of Macro Research in Europe for Goldman Sachs joins us to discuss his new book Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. Peter believes financial cycles are the primary driver of investor returns. He explains how each cycle consists of four phases with distinct characteristics in terms of returns, earnings growth and valuations. We talk about the structural changes that are creating headwinds for markets in our current super-cycle and how AI and the energy transition might help offset them.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Peter on LinkedIn & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:07 - Introduction to Peter Oppenheimer

04:59 - What do financial cycles derive from?

07:19 - What drives the cycles?

09:31 - A desynchronisation in the cycles

12:15 - Are we entering an optimism phase?

14:39 - Interpreting the signals

17:38 - Does Peter see room for interest rates to rise?

21:59 - What drives the high corporate profits in GDP?

26:54 - Are companies losing their margins?

29:17 - The potential of AI

31:54 - Can high energy consumption ruin the development of AI?

35:48 - Where will the investment in AI come from?

40:00 - Going full cycle

41:37 - The engines of growth

43:43 - Did the central bank response stop markets from becoming volatile?

48:13 - The role of central banks

51:22 - Getting out of a period of high debt

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI291: Trend Following...What should it mean to Investors? ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 13 Apr 2024 13:00:00 +0100

In this episode, we are joined by Richard Brennan to discuss why now is the time to step up your trend following allocation. Rich challenges Andrew Beer’s conclusion that a 3% allocation to trend following is the sweet spot and explains why he believes the trend following industry should simplify its narrative and quit the fancy “jargon”. We also discuss what defines a trend follower and why we may be losing the incentive to keep improving as trend followers, new research on the impact of crises and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:08 - What has been on our radar recently?

08:33 - Industry performance update

16:02 - What is the optimal allocation to trend following?

24:02 - Do trend followers have fiduciary responsibility?

27:09 - Why is Andrew Beer having trouble with his trend following allocation?

31:30 - Are we moving too far away from the classic trend following?

37:21 - What does it take to call yourself a trend follower?

42:01 - Discussing Corey Hoffstein's approach

46:44 - What about the fees?

50:34 - Are we losing the incentive to improve?

58:45 - The impact of crises

01:07:11 - Sign up for our new newsletter

01:08:26 - What is up for next week?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU146: The value of Unpredictable Alpha ft. Anthony Todd

Wed, 10 Apr 2024 02:00:00 +0100

Today, we are delighted to be joined by Anthony Todd, Co-Founder & CEO of Aspect Capital, for an insightful discussion on the role of systematic trading and trend following in today’s economy. We also discuss what has driven Aspect Capital’s shift towards developing multiple strategies and how they guide their clients to make better investment decisions, whether the trend following industry should be concerned about replication strategies and how allocations are funded today. Lastly, we discuss how Aspect Capital uses AI in their work and how systematic trading has changed as a whole with the rise of AI, what Todd is most excited and concerned about in 2024 and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Todd on LinkedIn.

Find out more about DUNN Capital

Episode Timestamps:

02:24 - Introduction to Anthony Todd and Aspect Capital

05:43 - A global macro perspective

09:45 - How has the industry evolved?

13:51 - Are investors under-allocated to trend?

17:11 - Trend following - a return enhancer?

20:37 - The correlation between stocks and bonds

25:27 - The path to offering multible strategies

29:47 - Balancing choices and guiding clients and investors

33:26 - Are CTAs threatened by replication strategies?

39:11 - How are allocations funded now?

42:28 - CTAs - competitors or a different allocation?

44:44 - Does capping the beta make sense?

49:21 - Are investors becoming too difficult?

52:49 - Todd's view on the use of artificial intelligence

58:13 - Has trend following changed because of AI?

01:02:53 - Excitement and concerns for 2024

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK TTU146: Aspect Capital Insights

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend Following ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 06 Apr 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer to discuss why the current surge in Cocoa prices really is a big deal for our industry, but how CTAs have been selling it this year, against many main stream media reports. We also dig into how the strong performance in Q1 2024 is helping Trend Following making its way into more Model Portfolios and the existential crisis that we are seeing in the Model Portfolio world. We explain how the narrative around trend following is changing and why replication strategies are becoming less radical. And we wrap up our conversation touching on what the optimal allocation to trend following should be based on the latest publication from Man Institute, the challenges of dealing with unrealistic expectations in the trend following space and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:38 - Industry performance update

06:49 - What is the big deal with Cocoa?

11:49 - What causes the rising Cocoa prices?

13:56 - A fantastic start to the year for trend following

16:58 - Industry performance update continued

18:12 - Q1, Peter: What percentage of your liquid net worth do you have invested in DBMF?

22:05 - What does Q1 2024 mean for CTAs?

30:51 - A period of normalcy

34:02 - A change in the trend following narrative

42:54 - Are replication strategies becoming less radical?

46:22 - Stacking returns - a good or bad idea?

52:35 - Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following (paper from Man Institute)

57:08 - Finding the optimal allocation

01:04:27 - Niels' different perspective on a trend following allocation

01:07:11 - Different allocations for different situations?

01:11:10 - Too old for unrealistic expectations

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK SI290: Honey, I Shrunk the Trend-Following | Man Institute

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO22: Finding an Absolute Return Solution for a C$11BN Pension Plan ft. Christophe L'Ahelec

Wed, 03 Apr 2024 08:45:00 +0100

Christophe L’Ahelec, Managing Director of Public Markets at University Pension Plan Ontario, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss their approach to managing the C$11bn defined benefit pension plan. We discuss the high level Strategic Asset Allocation of the plan and also how the changed macro environment in recent years has motivated a shift in the asset allocation towards more absolute return strategies. Such strategies play a dual role of diversification and return enhancement for UPP and we discuss how Christophe thinks about an appropriate strategy allocation within absolute return. We also delve into the challenges of manager selection and evaluation, why it is important to remember that you are buying an “investment process” not historical returns when allocating to managers and discuss when is it appropriate to remove a manager and when not.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Christophe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:50 - Introduction to Christophe L'Ahelec

07:06 - A new initiative

10:01 - What kind of strategy drives their asset allocation?

12:40 - What goes into which bucket?

14:45 - What makes absolute return exposure more attractive at the moment?

16:31 - Constructing an absolute return portfolio

18:38 - How they approach trend following

21:58 - Why do they use leverage?

23:32 - What do they expect from their portfolio?

25:12 - Managing liabilities

27:58 - Public equities - where do they stand?

30:59 - Investing in niche strategies

34:11 - How they evaluate managers

36:21 - Open to early stage manager risk?

41:42 - What makes a manager stand out?

44:56 - When should you remove a manager?

46:47 - What is their governance process?

50:36 - How they make decisions as a team

52:20 - Advice for new investors

55:34 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI289: Kahneman, Trend Following & Cocoa ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 30 Mar 2024 05:30:00 +0100

Mark Rzepczynski joins us to remember one of the most important people within modern-day finance, author and psychologist, Daniel Kahneman, and the impact he had on our industry. We also discuss how increasing interest rates change the way investors behave and why trend following and CTAs have performed so well the past 5 years, perhaps without been given the credit the strategy deserves. We also dive into the cocoa market to discuss why it may still have a long way to go, despite racking up another 60% rise in March 2024 alone. We then move on to explain why the financial conditions index is important to understand for trend followers and why Mark believes stocks may continue to rise. Lastly, we discuss what makes trend following unique, why having trend following in your portfolio can help you achieve better performance and more diversification and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - Remembering Daniel Kahneman

03:54 - Things are changing

09:54 - Industry performance update

13:32 - What the Credit Suisse Managed Futures Index is missing

16:23 - Let's talk about Cocoa

21:55 - Trends can last longer than people expect

24:44 - Is the Cocoa market a bubble?

28:31 - Less markets = better performance?

30:43 - Static vs. Dynamic position sizing in the Cocoa market

39:13 - Understanding the financial conditions index

45:09 - A euphoric environment

49:47 - What makes trend following unique?

54:50 - Global macro vs. trend following

59:01 - A rotation in the alternative markets

01:03:15 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI07: The Evolution of Short-Term Trading ft. Tony Kaiser

Wed, 27 Mar 2024 09:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Tony Kaiser, the CEO and founder of Kaiser Trading, a short-term systematic fund based in Melbourne, Australia.

Tony speaks about his start in the late 1990s, leaving a bank prop trading role to set up his own shop, and then comments on how the short-term trading space has changed and evolved over the years. Today, the models they use are shorter-term than the ones they used to trade decades ago, and the entire business is much more tech dependent. Tony mentions that short-term trading is difficult and that the space has a higher barrier to entry, which is why there are relatively few short-term managers for investors to choose from, but that one really attractive feature is the low correlation of their returns not only to traditional asset classes, but also to their own sector, i.e., other short-term managers.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Tony on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:16 - Introduction to Tony Kaiser

04:07 - An interesting journey

16:50 - A difficult space for alpha

20:55 - Why did Kaiser move into the short term space?

28:17 - How has trading frequency and systems evolved?

33:15 - Do Kaiser's original models still work today?

45:28 - A shock to the system

49:43 - Where does the low correlation come from?

57:00 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI288: Why Investors are Under-Allocating to Trend Following? ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 23 Mar 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for the weekly trend following update with Alan Dunne, where we discuss why 2024 is turning into an interesting year for investors with diverging signals from Central Banks. We debate the possibility of the markets entering a bubble and how the levels of interest rates could cause a refinance crisis. Alan also takes us through the history and outlook as per the newly released UBS 2024 Yearbook, uncovering what has been dominating the economy throughout history, and the reason why many investors might be missing out on potential diversification by under-allocating to trend following. Lastly, we discuss the role of hedge funds in a multi asset portfolio and the importance of constructing a portfolio that best suits the investor’s needs.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:21 - What is catching our attention at the moment?

05:40 - Is the economy becoming a bubble?

14:09 - A refinance crisis inbound?

20:41 - Industry performance update

24:49 - The economic outlook and history - UBS 2024 Yearbook

32:29 - Equities are here for the long term

37:57 - All in on equities?

44:15 - Investors are getting this wrong

46:19 - Can hedge funds play the right role?

50:17 - Where do multi-strat funds fit in?

53:28 - Choosing the right strategy

58:00 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI6: A Fundamental Approach to Commodities ft. Ricardo Leiman & Pedro Marion

Wed, 20 Mar 2024 06:30:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is joined by Ricardo Leiman and Pedro Marion from KLI Asset Management, a UK-based commodities-focused hedge fund. Ricardo and Pedro explain why KLI’s trading approach is rooted in deep fundamental analysis of commodity supply and demand and how they integrate commodity equities into their portfolio. Furthermore, they mention that the strong diversification across their portfolio of about 30 markets allows them to hold directional positions longer term, avoiding stop-outs on short-term price reversals – a feature that’s also an edge. Ricardo and Pedro also provide color on markets which they believe are currently interesting, including copper, sugar, coffee, oil, and EUA emission allowances.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn and YouTube.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Ricardo on LinkedIn

Follow Pedro on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Ricardo and Pedro

06:18 - What is their edge?

07:57 - What commodities are they trading?

08:46 - Why they don't trade cocoa

11:09 - Acquiring information through networking

13:40 - Why and how do they trade commodity equities

17:15 - What do they consider long-term?

19:38 - Why isn't copper sky rocketing?

22:01 - Their approach to options

22:50 - How they incorporate trend following in their trading

25:24 - Global macro perspectives

27:28 - No hard landing?

28:35 - Is the coal market dying?

31:14 - The outlook of EUAs

35:03 - Do they formulate a price target in their models?

37:08 - A disconnect in the green transition

38:58 - Natural gas market integrating with LNG

40:55 - Their view on the grain markets

43:34 - A quick touch on other markets

44:20 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI287: No Pain, No Gain ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 16 Mar 2024 03:00:00 +0100

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminiski back to the show as we reflect on her entry into the trend following space and what she has learned on her systematic journey. We also discuss different ways of allocating risk in portfolio construction and why Katy “loves skewness”, why preparing for pain can actually lead to better decisions as an investor and how changes in the global macro environment takes time to manifest in trends. Lastly, we discuss what we are both excited and nervous for in 2024.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:03 - When are trends coming to an end?

06:24 - Industry performance update

07:31 - How did Katy end up in the trend following industry?

11:19 - What attracted her to the industry?

12:40 - What Katy has learned from being an allocator

15:44 - Risk variations in portfolio construction

20:21 - What drives the biggest dispersion?

21:54 - Understanding risk in your portfolio

24:05 - Constant vol targeting - just a phase?

25:25 - The importance of skewness

31:06 - Mind the timeframe

34:57 - Preparing for pain ahead of time (MAN Paper)

38:15 - No pain, no gain...

43:28 - Economic trend (AQR Paper)

47:33 - Dealing with a world in disruption

50:48 - Excitement and worries about 2024

57:05 - What is up for next episode?

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM58: Electric Dreams and Commodity Market Realities ft. Tor Svelland

Wed, 13 Mar 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Tor Svelland, of Svelland Capital, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the global macro forces driving global commodity markets. They discuss how the commodity markets have evolved over the years, as banks have scaled back trading and quant firms and CTAs have become more prominent players. Tor outlines the key reasons he believes commodity markets are in the midst of a super cycle, identifies where he sees the strongest opportunities and discusses what the commodity markets are currently suggesting about the state of global demand. They discuss how the global energy transition, de-globalization and nearshoring, rising geopolitical risk and increased defence spending will impact markets. They also delve into the periodic mis-pricings Tor sees between equities, particularly technology stocks, and commodities given their rising electricity demand.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Tor on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - Introduction to Tor Svelland

06:18 - How have commodity markets evolved?

09:19 - More opportunities in commodity markets?

11:32 - Why Tor started his own firm

14:15 - Tor's outlook for the commodity markets

17:10 - What has driven the flat trend in the major industrial markets?

20:09 - Are we in a super cycle?

22:55 - Translating trends into trades

24:47 - Which markets will benefit from the energy transition?

26:55 - A slow transition

31:14 - The temperature of the global economy

35:21 - Where will we see signs of recession?

39:13 - Is disinflation a major trend?

41:14 - How extreme can it get?

42:42 - How will Europe meet its energy demands going forward??

45:13 - How the defense spending will impact markets

47:07 - Taking advantage of the spikes in markets

51:06 - How volatility sellers affect markets

52:56 - Additional observations in the commodity markets

55:18 - Putting it all together

56:52 - Why has gold miners been so slow?

58:27 - Private capital taking over?

59:20 - Advice for other investors

01:00:30 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI286: Profiting from Different Investment Regimes? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 05:30:00 +0100

This week, Rob Carver joins us to uncover his process of choosing which instruments to trade and how to manage the volatility of these. We also discuss how time frames affect position sizing and the ability to get reasonable exposure to a market as well as how you manage your expenses as a full time systematic trader. We round off our conversation with a deep dive into the latest paper from Man Institute to find out if different regimes exist in reality or just in hindsight. The paper uncovers if investors can reliably profit from correctly identifying them and if so, how? And how various types of investing have performed through different regimes, including Trend Following.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:26 - What has been on our radar recently?

06:31 - Industry performance update

13:41 - Q1.0, Matthijs: Assuming that the trading costs are not a problem for some low-vol instrument, then how can we decide whether/how to still safely include the instrument in our portfolio?

23:50 - Q1.1 Matthijs: How do we distinguish between benign naturally low-vol instruments and disasters waiting to happen due to artificially dampened volatility?

26:18 - Q2, Ben: If I can trade markets like sugar or OJ on 20-day breakouts, is it reasonable to do so or is that quote-unquote too fast?

32:08 - Q3, Emil: As a full time systematic trader, how do you manage your expenses, with up and down months/years?

43:09 - Discussing latest Man Institute paper on regime based investing

50:37 - A win for trend following

59:32 - Does it matter if the Fed is tightening?

01:01:53 - The Impact of Contango vs. Backwardation

01:09:57 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL24: Our Chance to Build a Sustainable Future ft. Hannah Ritchie

Wed, 06 Mar 2024 07:00:00 +0100

In this episode we talk to Dr. Hannah Ritchie, Deputy Editor and Lead Researcher at Our World In Data and author of the Not The End of the World, How We Can Be The First Generation to Build a Sustainable Planet. Dr. Ritchie talks about her personal journey from a climate pessimist ready to switch careers to a data scientist explaining why the world can transition to a sustainable future. We discuss how China and India are becoming greener at a much faster rate than western countries did as they developed. We also talk about why electrification is so important and the role for nuclear and gas power in that process. She explains why food systems play an important role in emissions and the surprising list of individual actions that help - and also hurt - the environment.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Hannah on LinkedIn and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Hannah Ritchie

09:17 - How does Hannah describe herself and her work?

10:56 - How has global CO2 emission developed?

16:01 - How is China managing their intermittency problem?

19:10 - How does nuclear play a role for our future?

21:53 - Natural gas - a perfect bridge?

23:35 - Are EVs a viable solution for transportation?

26:55 - Addressing the criticism of EVs

30:31 - Why does a plant based diet have such a big environmental impact?

34:05 - Why organic farming methods and local meat isn't really sustainable

37:59 - Why is Ritchie skeptical about vertical farming?

40:50 - Can plastic be positive for the environment?

43:16 - Managing the plastic waste

47:27 - Importing and export plastic waste

49:38 - How to be an optimal data scientist

56:11 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI285: Elections Ahead & What this Mean for Investors ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 02 Mar 2024 08:00:00 +0100

Today, Cem Karsan joins us to discuss a wide range or really important topics. Inspired by questions from listeners we discuss how the balance in asset performance is shifting and how 0DTE impact markets. We also discuss how 2024 will contain more inportant elections than any other year in recent history and how we foresee the U.S. election will play out, the state of flows and the rise of a new meme stock. Lastly, we discuss whether the U.S. is beginning to loose the exorbitant privilege due to their huge debt and the potential power shifts that can happen in the nearby future.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:06 - What has been on our radar recently?

05:13 - Industry performance update

08:01 - Q1, Rick: Is positioning in tech under or over weighted?

11:23 - How 0DTE impact markets

18:08 - Is the VIX broken?

24:03 - 2024 - The year of elections

30:19 - Republicans or democrats - does it even matter to the markets?

32:09 - The return of the Kennedy's

39:15 - What is going on with flows?

47:55 - The rise of meme stocks

52:41 - How the U.S. debt will impact the dollar

59:59 - A wild ride for Japan

01:05:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO21: How to Run a Multi-Billion Dollar Sovereign Fund ft. Peter Madsen

Wed, 28 Feb 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Peter Madsen, CIO of SITFO, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss how the $3.5bn State of Utah Sovereign Fund runs its investment portfolio. They discuss the rationale for Peter’s investment philosophy of having a diversified portfolio of growth assets, real assets, income generating assets and defensive strategies in contrast to the equity-centred portfolios of many endowments. Peter discusses the key risk considerations in managing the portfolio and how the team think about formulating return expectations. They discuss the opportunities in private markets and the potential risks in private credit in particular. A key element of the portfolio is the allocation to Systematic Convexity which includes Trend Following and Global Macro strategies and Peter discusses his journey investing in CTAs and some of the challenges and pitfalls of selecting managers.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Peter on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:56 - Introduction to Peter Madsen and his firm

06:54 - How is their portfolio charactarized?

09:16 - Their investment philosophy

14:33 - A skepticism about equities?

17:04 - How do the macro environment influence them?

21:23 - What is reasonable return expectation for equities?

25:19 - Splitting between public and private markets

28:20 - Where lies the most risk?

30:25 - Opportunities in the private credit space

33:21 - Building a strong defense

38:29 - Why don't more people invest?

40:41 - Madsen's view on CTAs and Global Macro

45:51 - The pitfalls of manager selection

49:29 - How important is performance?

51:39 - Constructing an efficient decision-making process

56:24 - Guiding and assessing a team of managers

59:55 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI284: Choosing Your Trend Following Battles ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 24 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Goldman Sachs's Nick Baltas joins us today, to help us uncover if it is meaningful to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures. We also weigh in on couple of articles, relating to the outlook for trend following and the state of the industry, before turning our attention to some hard core research into how to construct the optimal trend following portfolio and why it is important to be conscious of which battles you pick. Lastly, we discuss the challenge of timing an investment into trend following, the pros and cons of trading alternative markets and more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our interest recently?

03:04 - The Nikkei index finally comes out it its 35 year drawdown

05:35 - Industry performance update

07:37 - Q1, Oliver: Does it makes sense to use factor regression to evaluate managed futures?

14:24 - The state of the industry

18:17 - Is trend following flopping?

27:34 - Building optimal trend following portfolios

36:15 - Pick your battles

49:10 - Is there a way to time trend following?

53:34 - Is it actually an advantage to trade alternative markets?

01:04:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI05: Is Trading Fewer Markets Actually Better? ft. Richard Liddle & Gareth Abbot

Wed, 21 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert speaks with Gareth Abbot and Richard Liddle from Bowmoor Capital, a trend following firm based in the UK. Gareth and Richard explain why they decided to go against many trend followers and limit their investment universe to 21 markets – a “compact” portfolio – and why additional markets would likely dilute the return stream they aim to generate. We also speak about their portfolio construction process which includes the combination of 16 systems and results in what they call “smart pyramiding” in and out of positions. Finally, we touch on dynamic position sizing.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Richard on LinkedIn

Follow Bowmoor Capital.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Richard Liddle and Gareth Abbot

05:19 - How did they get into investing?

09:43 - Why trend following?

13:55 - Solving the market puzzle

15:36 - How they designed their strategy?

18:46 - The reason for their market selection

24:18 - Why exactly 21 markets?

31:13 - How did they design their system?

39:47 - Why they don't trade hundreds of markets

42:08 - What timeframes and models do they work with?

50:13 - Controlling the heat

55:31 - What is "heat" in a portfolio?

57:26 - How do they manage the heat?

01:00:06 - How they use dynamic position sizing

01:05:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI283: How to Beat the Benchmarks ft. Richard Brennan

Sun, 18 Feb 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Come along for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan, where we dive into how to the beat the benchmarks as a manager. We discuss the different factors that goes into achieving great performance and why trend following has greater potential return than other alternative investment strategies, why bigger and newer is not always better in terms of complex adaptive systems, why it is important to be aware of system diversification and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught our attention recently?

02:33 - What will 2024 bring for trend following?

07:11 - Inflation? Look to the Tooth Fairy

08:33 - Industry performance update

11:34 - Q1, Mark: Should trend followers size long and short positions the same?

17:20 - Outperforming the benchmarks

36:39 - The "secrets" of achieving great performance

44:42 - Is bigger always better?

52:43 - The importance of system diversification

01:03:45 - Working out the optimal parameters

01:08:14 - Crazy times in the cocoa market

01:09:41 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM57: Navigating the Next Decade ft. Kiril Sokoloff

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Legendary strategist Kiril Sokoloff, founder and Chairman of 13D Research, joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a whirlwind tour of where Kiril sees the risks and opportunities in global markets over the next decade. Kiril outlines the reasons behind his belief that the secular bull market in bonds is over and a secular bear market is now underway. They discuss implications of climate change decarbonisation, the ageing global economy, rising debt levels and the growing risk of a significant derailment of the global economy from protectionism. Kiril explains why he is bullish oil, copper, uranium and gold and why gold mining stocks are the cheapest asset on the planet and his top contrarian call. They discuss China’s current economic challenges and why Kiril remains upbeat on the longer-term outlook for China and Chinese stocks but why there may be even greater opportunities in India.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Kiril's work on 13D.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - Introduction to Kiril Sokoloff

05:21 - Are we heading back to "normal"?

11:17 - Will China become an inflationary force?

14:30 - Is China still investable?

17:05 - A Chinese confidence crisis

18:45 - The outlook for inflation from a historical perspective

23:13 - What is going on in the oil market?

25:45 - What drives the shift towards solar energy in China?

27:57 - The move towards nuclear energy

29:55 - U.S vs. Europe vs. China

33:12 - How to position for the next 20 years

35:12 - Why is Sokoloff a fan of gold?

39:13 - A move away from the dollar

44:50 - Understanding the gold market

49:05 - How will AI impact the economy?

51:30 - India - the next China?

53:34 - How will the decarbonization evolve?

55:38 - Sokoloff's favorite contrarian calls

57:50 - Sokoloff's process for generation ideas

59:24 - Advice for other investors

02:02:03 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI282: Rethinking Bonds: the Changing Role of Fixed Income ft. Andrew Beer

Sun, 11 Feb 2024 06:00:00 +0100

Andrew Beer returns to the show for a fascinating conversation, where we question the role of Bonds in today's environment, and review both current and historic performance, and what it takes to change investors minds about replacing bonds with managed futures. We also discuss why long-term timeframes might be better for most investors within Trend Following and why stock-picking are becoming less relevant due to shifts in the S&P500 structure. Lastly, we touch on the ETF space and how the investment industry is slow at adapting to change, whether democracy is on its last legs and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:53 - A dark time

04:24 - Industry performance update

10:57 - Should we replace bonds with managed futures? (or vice versa)

21:59 - What does it take to change investors minds?

33:26 - No one can erase 2022, and that is important

35:01 - A misleading narrative in the managed futures space

38:30 - Long or short term - who performed the best?

43:39 - Are stocks becoming less relevant?

53:22 - An update on the ETF space

56:25 - An existential crisis within equity hedge funds

58:55 - Capitalism and the political discourse

01:03:58 - Is democracy on its last legs?

01:06:32 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM56: Structural Shifts - A Threat to the Economy? ft. Frances Donald

Wed, 07 Feb 2024 15:00:00 +0100

Frances Donald, Chief Economist and Strategist at Manulife Investment Management, joins Alan Dunne to discuss how the drivers of the economy and inflation are undergoing a structural shift and what this means for the economic outlook. We hear why Frances expects a recession in the US economy in 2024 and why the risks to her forecasts are on the downside. Frances outlines where she currently sees tactical opportunities in fixed income markets and why she expects equity markets to face headwinds as investors start to see “bad news as bad news” this year. The conversations delves into the big shift underway in the global economy, becoming more supply driven than demand driven and the implications this will have for inflation, monetary policy and fiscal policy over the medium term.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Frances on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:39 - Introduction to Frances Donald

06:39 - What caused a pivot from the central banks?

13:10 - Why were they wrong about their forecast?

20:43 - Where are the weak spots?

23:58 - Does recession calls even matter?

27:34 - Frances' outlook for the economy

39:21 - Are we heading into a structural shift?

51:04 - Will things change in the next administration?

53:33 - Are fixed income markets becoming more investable?

59:35 - Advice for the other investors

01:01:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI281: More Markets = Better Performance? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 03 Feb 2024 09:00:00 +0100

Today, Mark Rzepczynski joins us to reflect on how the first month of 2024 has been treating investor. We also discuss how misinformation posses a major threat to the global economy and how some managers are moving away from price as the only data input, how speed plays a role within trend following and why it is important to be aware of a manager’s "personality". Lastly, we dive deep into principal component analysis and the factors that drive trend following performance, how trading more markets may produce better returns according to new research and how diversification can come in many different forms.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What has caught our interest recently?

02:27 - Industry performance update

06:16 - Misinformation - a global threat

12:14 - The drivers of price

17:17 - Finding the optimal lookback period

22:48 - Managers have different personalities

29:53 - What makes up good trend following performance?

32:24 - Diving into principal component analysis

39:32 - More markets = better returns?

44:54 - Diversification can come in many forms

49:37 - How will trend following perform in different cycles?

54:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL23: Learning to Fail Well ft. Amy Edmondson

Wed, 31 Jan 2024 13:00:00 +0100

In this episode we talk to Amy Edmondson, Harvard Business School professor and author of the Financial Times 2023 Business Book of the Year: The Right Kind of Wrong, The Science of Failing Well. Edmondson argues we should cultivate an appetite for “intelligent failure” - events that may be painful but ultimately lead to innovation, personal growth and better relationships. This is difficult because we are hardwired to push failure “underground”, a bias that is often made worse by work cultures that punish failure in the name of accountability. Edmondson explains how we can overcome these obstacles using stories from her own life and findings from her career as a scientific researcher.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Amy on LinkedIn and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Amy Edmondson

10:27 - The importance of psychological safety

15:04 - The different types of failure

18:25 - Why do we fear to fail?

22:54 - The idea of reframing

25:04 - Practicing reframing

27:06 - Has the way students work changed?

30:25 - The dark side of the performance mindset

32:40 - Integrating feedback the right way

36:16 - The Stop. Challenge. Choose Method

41:02 - The key aspect of failing well

44:48 - How can we cultivate intelligent failure?

50:35 - Conceptualizing excellence in a new way

53:33 - Encouraging openness while maintaining intellectual property

56:33 - A philosophical perspective

01:00:36 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI280: Equities for the Long Run? ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 27 Jan 2024 03:30:00 +0100

As we are getting closer to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, Alan Dunne joins us to discuss how markets might be affected, should Trump win the election. We also answer a question from our community, in terms of how much you should consider allocating to Trend Following as part of a multi-asset portfolio and we discuss the historical differences between equity and managed futures drawdowns. Lastly, we dive into a couple of recent papers to find out whether stocks are the most optimal allocation for the long run, whether the next decade will be like the last one and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:26 - The importance of liquidity

06:39 - The global macro picture

11:52 - How will markets be affected by the presidential election?

16:10 - What about China?

21:24 - Industry performance update

24:04 - Q1, Anonymous: What would be a fair allocation to trend following in a diversified multi-asset portfolio?

32:33 - Q1.1 Anonymous: Any resources or insights to help the selection process for UCITS funds

37:29 - Equity versus managed futures drawdowns

43:10 - Stocks for the long run - really?

55:38 - Has it gone too far with the Magnificent 7's?

57:28 - The outlook of the next decade

01:02:32 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO20: How Will Mega Trends Shape the Economy? ft. Casey Clark

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Casey Clark, President and CIO of Rockefeller Asset Management, joins Alan Dunne in this episode to discuss the mega trends shaping the investment landscape and asset management industry over the coming years. We hear Casey’s insights on what are the key traits of great investors, how Rockefeller evaluates aspiring portfolio managers and what makes a great investment process. The conversation delves into the changing macro landscape, the implications of a positive correlation between bonds and equities for allocators and why we may see a resurgence of value investing and greater adoption of alternatives in portfolios. We also delve into ESG, the diverging trends in ESG investing in the US and Europe and how the framework of ESG leaders and improvers is key to how Rockefeller thinks about incorporating ESG into their alpha generation process.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Casey on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:45 - Introduction to Casey Clark

07:02 - How do Rockefeller Capital Management manage their assets?

10:01 - What is their investment philosophy?

12:04 - Who are their clients?

12:45 - How do they build their strategies?

14:24 - How are they setting themselves up for mega trends like AI

16:55 - What is driving the ETF growth?

17:32 - Their approach to evaluating managers

21:49 - Having the right benchmark

24:34 - What makes a good investment process?

26:08 - How do they come up with new ideas?

30:13 - Investing with ESG in mind

34:30 - A constraint or opportunity?

36:56 - Are we approaching a changing investment environment?

41:55 - How mega trends will shape the macro landscape

50:36 - A shift in the 60/40 portfolio?

54:17 - Is there a place for alternatives?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI279: Prepare for a Bumpy Landing ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 20 Jan 2024 11:00:00 +0100

In this episode, I'm joined by Katy Kaminski, who delves into the nuances distinguishing momentum trading from trend following, emphasizing the importance of comprehending the underlying philosophy of a trading strategy. Katy sheds light on the concept of 'pure trend' and offers insights on identifying convergent patterns within a trend following approach. We also reflect on the peculiarities of 2023, with Katy sharing her perspective on why we might be entering 'the final phase' and her expectations of a "bumpy" rather than smooth or abrupt economic transition, among other insightful topics.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - A funny story from Katy

02:34 - An important shout-out

03:42 - A rare event in Denmark

06:55 - Industry performance update

08:10 - Thoughts on 2024 so far

09:42 - The difference between momentum and trend following

13:53 - Convergent vs. divergent strategies

24:08 - What does "pure trend" mean to Katy?

28:03 - What makes you a pure trend follower?

32:53 - Looking back at 2023

37:48 - An unusual year

43:22 - Discussing Katy's paper on fixed income

47:43 - How were trend models positioned in the 1960's?

51:11 - What does your position mean?

54:40 - Next big bull market in commodities?

56:10 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

LINK 279: From Bears to Bulls?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM55: What Investors Need to Know about 2024 ft. Dave Dredge & Cem Karsan

Wed, 17 Jan 2024 12:00:00 +0100

Get ready for a powerhouse discussion as two titans of risk management, Dave Dredge and Cem Karsan, come together once again. These experts are renowned for their insights, and today, they're diving deep into what's unfolded since their last conversation and where the smart money should be in 2024. From avoiding pitfalls to uncovering lucrative opportunities, Dave and Cem have you covered. Tune in for a dynamic start to the year!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dave on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - Looking back on our last conversation

07:55 - Are markets looking too good to be true?

14:04 - The importance of long volatility and owning convexity

24:41 - Why is volatility compression normalizing?

31:35 - A system under pressure

38:48 - How is now different to the 1970's?

42:09 - Can deglobalization be a good thing?

53:00 - Where is the debt problem going?

01:04:25 - Volatility and liquidity are opposite sides of the same coin

01:09:08 - How Dredge is carrying out volatility selling

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI278: Trend Following Risk Premium...is it there & could it go away? ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 13 Jan 2024 07:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver returns to the show to discuss whether there is a risk that the Trend Following risk premium could one day disappear and how he manages exogenous and endogenous risks in a trend following system, how he thinks of trading single stocks instead of stock indices in a diversified multi-asset trend program and what the minimum lookback period would be, in order to be considered “long term”. We also discuss the irony of the newly approved crypto ETF, how the nature of bitcoin has changed and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - What has caught our attention recently?

10:14 - Industry performance update

11:26 - Q1, Norbert: What is the long-term expectation for the trend-following risk premium as measured by the SG Trend Index after costs and its stability or sustainability?

19:46 - Q2, Bruno: What is Rob's method for balancing endogenous and exogenous risk management and controls in a system

29:36 - Q3, Oliver: What is Rob's take on trading single stocks instead of stock indecies in a diversified multi-asset trend program

37:57 - Q4, Critter: What would the minimum lookback period be to be considered "long term"?

41:59 - Q5, Chris: Can you share a couple names of software companies that do robust backtesting of trade strategies

45:57 - Cypto ETFs have been approved!

52:42 - Allocating to bitcoin

01:04:31 - Looking into 2024

01:08:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI04: Do Alternative Markets Trend Better? ft. Scott Kerson

Wed, 10 Jan 2024 05:00:00 +0100

In this episode, Moritz Seibert is by Scott Kerson, the Head of GreshamQuant. Gresham is a commodity-focused investment management firm and GreshamQuant is their systematic trading arm. In 2017, they launched the ACAR Fund, an alternative markets trend following fund with an exclusive focus on commodities. Scott and Moritz discuss why they believes alternative markets to have better trending properties and higher Sharpe ratios within a trend following context and why they refuse to trade a larger portfolio which would also include the traditional futures markets most other CTAs trade. At the end, Scott also shares his outlook on the alternative markets CTA space with us. If you’re interested in alternative markets trend following, this is a valuable episode to listen to.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Scott on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Scott Kerson

08:27 - When did AHL Evolution start and what is it?

13:54 - What is an alternative market to Kerson and what differentiates it from other markets?

20:25 - Why an exclusive focus on commodities?

22:45 - What markets are Kerson trading and why?

24:04 - Where are the hidden gems?

26:31 - Why Kerson restrict the markets he is trading

30:37 - Maintaining a neo-classical trend approach

31:26 - A need for long-term?

33:09 - What is the capacity of the markets?

34:28 - What is the total AUM of alternative market CTAs today?

35:30 - Their core research philosophy

37:53 - The key barriers to entry

39:52 - How have they gone through 2023?

41:07 - Is there any market that stand out from the others?

43:16 - The outlook of the alternative markets CTA space

45:36 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI277: What Will 2024 Bring? ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 06 Jan 2024 11:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan joins us to kick off 2024, where we discuss what lies ahead, and where we question if the reassuring inflation picture with falling prices, rising employment, and decreasing interest rates, may be a mirage. What do recent trends tell us about the outlook for 2024 and is the inflation environment the true driver of the economy? Why does Cem believe we are moving towards stagflation and what implications will this have for the economy? How has the understanding of “normal” changed over time and how will the U.S election impact 2024? And finally, Cem explains why he believes we need crises and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

06:15 - Q1, Rick: What are the implications and risks of the recent spike in SOFR?

11:02 - What trends have we seen recently?

16:53 - It all comes down to the inflation environment?

24:49 - Hidden dangers for the younger generation

27:29 - Soft landing + goldilocks = stagflation?

32:19 - Under the hood of inflation

34:23 - What is normal?

39:49 - How the U.S election will change the world

46:30 - Will 2024 lead to surprising moves in the ongoing conflicts?

49:59 - Looking from a bigger perspective

53:00 - Looking into the crystal ball

59:05 - Teasing for the conversation with David Dredge

01:03:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO19: Managing Wealth for HNW Investors ft. Joe Prendergast

Wed, 03 Jan 2024 02:00:00 +0100

In this episode Joe Prendergast, Strategic Advisor and Head of Investment Strategy at Goodbody joins Alan Dunne to discuss the challenges and opportunities in managing wealth for HNW investors, particularly businesses owners. Joe outlines his investment philosophy and why a 50-50 allocation between growth assets and defensive assets is still at the core of his approach to proving a “peace a of mind” portfolio for investors. They discuss risk management and how to manage drawdown risk and the shortfalls of focusing too much on volatility as a risk measure when managing portfolios for private investors. They delve into the current investing backdrop, how higher interest rates have impacted asset allocation decisions and discuss why Joe is structurally more upbeat on the opportunities in public markets in the US but more optimistic on the opportunities in Europe and Asia for private equity.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Joe on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Joe Prendergast

04:50 - Prendergast's learnings from working at Credit Suisse

07:00 - What types of portfolios are Prendergast running?

09:49 - Prendergast's investment philosophy

13:59 - How has 2022 changed the asset allocation space?

16:32 - Could we have another 2022?

18:56 - Having metrics for success

26:50 - Managing cash flow

31:43 - Shooting for a higher return

39:33 - Dealing with bumps on the road

43:48 - Prendergast's experience with the hedge fund industry

46:29 - Working as a Europe based FX investor

51:10 - Balancing attractive earnings capabilities vs a higher valuation starting point

55:13 - How Prendergast incorporates ESGs in his allocation

59:46 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI276: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 2

Sat, 30 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

In this second part of our TTU Year-End special, we continue our conversation by discussing the challenge of defining non-trend strategies and the criteria for a good backtest, whether trend followers can afford to stand still in terms of research. We also discuss what is next for fixed income trading and we present our outrageous predictions for 2024. Happy New Year from all of us at TopTradersUnplugged!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - Trend following in an unpredictable world

09:50 - What is a considered as a good backtest?

21:09 - How much change is too much change?

28:50 - Our most important lesson in 2023

36:11 - What is the next phase of the fixed income trade?

46:01 - Geopolitics and looking into 2024

55:42 - Should we go all out diversification?

01:05:14 - Outrageous predictions for 2024

01:10:32 - Happy New Year!

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM54: "Weakflation" in 2024 ft. Gregory Peters

Wed, 27 Dec 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Greg Peters joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a global fixed income perspective on the evolving macro landscape. We hear why “weakflation” may be the most likely scenario for the US economy but that a the risk of recession is three times its typical level. Greg outlines what the secular shifts in the global economy such as the end of the era of secular stagnation, a stagnating China, stickier global inflation and higher return to labour, mean for the global economy and asset markets. We discuss the recent gyrations in then bond market, how the composition of demand for US Treasuries is changing and why Greg is not overly concerned about debt sustainability for the US economy. And we delve into the outlook for emerging markets and why Greg is constructive on the outlook for EM excluding China.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Gregory on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to Gregory Peters

05:15 - What types of portfolios PGIM Fixed Income running?

06:28 - Peters' perspective on the state of global macro

11:44 - Peters' response to the inverted curve

15:30 - Is Peters concerned about the U.S debt?

19:36 - Japanese investors in a tough spot

22:11 - Financial repression and domestic bias

24:11 - The yield is destiny

27:28 - What range are we operating in?

28:43 - Will inflation be stickier than we expect?

33:03 - The impact of a changing globalization

35:42 - Analyzing the poor productivity numbers

38:05 - The longer term outlook of the Chinese economy

42:54 - China as a potential component in a global fixed income portfolio

44:27 - Opportunities in emerging markets

46:47 - Peters' thoughts on the central bank response function

49:13 - How would central banks respond to a worst-case scenario?

51:29 - The possibilities of recession

56:19 - Advice for other investors

57:59 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI275: TTU YEAR-END Special Part 1

Fri, 22 Dec 2023 05:45:00 +0100

Join us for part 1 of this special edition of Systematic Investor, where we are joined by all of our wonderful co-hosts for a group conversation. In this first part, we take a look back on 2023 and discuss how the year has been treating Trend Followers and CTAs at large. We also discuss volatility trading and value of adding non-trend strategies to your trend following, the outlook of the SG Trend Index and the challenge of classifying yourself in the trend following industry. Lastly, we discuss what you are looking for in a good backtest, how to approach making changes to your model and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on LinkedIn.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Follow Andrew on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Cem on Twitter and LinkedIn.

Follow Richard on Twitter.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Introduction to this special edition of Systematic Investor

03:07 - Looking back on 2023 and into 2024

13:06 - Let's talk about volatility

19:42 - Volatility from a banker's perspective

25:13 - The value of non-trend strategies and smooth returns

40:40 - What is going with the SG Trend Index?

50:20 - How trend followers classify themselves

01:02:00 - End of part 1

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL22: The Fund - The Other Side of Dalio & Bridgewater ft. Rob Copeland

Wed, 20 Dec 2023 01:00:00 +0100

In this episode we talk to Rob Copeland, New York Times reporter and author of the bestselling new book: The Fund: Ray Dalio, Bridgewater Associates and the Unravelling of a Wall Street Legend. Bridgewater is the world’s largest hedge fund and its founder, Ray Dalio, claims to run his firm based on The Principles, rules for life and work that argue for complete honesty and transparency. His most famous Principle: Pain + Reflection = Progress. But Copeland, who has covered Bridgewater for years as a Wall Street Journal reporter paints a radically different picture. Instead of encouraging truth, Copeland’s book documents a rigged feedback system that keeps Dalio permanently at the top and a culture where fear of upsetting Dalio suppresses the truth rather than encourages it. Copeland also claims that Bridgewater’s investment process is far less systematic than it claims, with Dalio ‘calling the shots’. Bridgewater strongly disputes all of these conclusions.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Rob on LinkedIn and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:10 - Introduction to Rob Copeland and his book

04:37 - Copelands's relation to Ray Dalio and how the book started

09:14 - How Copeland reacted to lawsuit threats

11:03 - The logic behind the "baseball cards" concept

13:03 - How Dalio interpreted and rigged the outcome of the baseball cards

14:52 - How well known was Dalio's "rigged" rankings?

16:06 - How did Dalio's "trial" methods work?

21:03 - What can we learn from Ray Dalio's principles?

23:12 - How the MC Cycle functioned

27:55 - What is Dalio's core skill?

29:46 - Did Dalio believe in his own principles?

33:03 - Why Copeland is comfortable with his narrative about Dalio?

38:00 - Why don't we see a bigger footprint from Bridgewater in the markets?

40:57 - Did Bridgewater investors not notice?

44:30 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI274: Can You Time Trend Following? ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 16 Dec 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Nick Baltas for conversation, where we dive deep into the use of volatility scaling and accelerators in trend following systems. Additionally, we discuss various research papers that address whether trend following CTAs are truly long vol, what the negative impact of trend breaks are, whether you can predict future trend following performance by analyzing previous trend following perfomance and the art of timing trends, why it is important to sometimes settle with “good enough” performance, the future of the 60/40 portfolio and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:10 - What's been on our radar recently?

05:09 - Industry performance update

06:51 - Q1, Nicolas: Can you replace price with sharpe and trend follow that input instead?

17:52 - Q2, Andrew: Is there any validity in having additional accelerators in a system and how would it be used?

25:03 - Article: Are trend following CTAs truly long volatility?

33:26 - Article: Breaking bad trends

42:19 - Know when to be long and short

45:15 - Article: Managed futures rotation

52:40 - Sometimes good enough is good enough

57:02 - The future of the 60/40 portfolio

01:03:57 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL07: Avoiding Apocalypse Through Quantum Physics & AI ft. Klee Irwin

Wed, 13 Dec 2023 10:00:00 +0100

AI is stealing the headlines with what seems like wave after wave of breakthroughs, but running parallel to this are equally rapid advancements in quantum physics and our understanding of reality. Listen in on this complex yet nuanced conversation with Klee Irwin, Founder of Quantum Gravity Research as he shares his views on physics, AI, and the accelerating course humanity finds itself on, and how it ties in to us as investors.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Klee on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:31 - Introduction to Klee Irwin

07:43 - Quantum technology and the double-slit experiment

23:53 - The retro causality experiment

26:49 - Understanding the self-simulation hypothesis

50:16 - What is going on with AI?

59:48 - Where can you follow Klee Irwin?

01:02:10 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI273: Unraveling the Mystery of Complex Adaptive Systems ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 09 Dec 2023 15:00:00 +0100

How do you avoid overfitting, how loose is too loose in terms of loose pants and how should you approach sample sizes when designing your trading systems? What are complex adaptive systems, how do they apply to financial markets and why does regular math just not cut it? How does trend following differ from other strategies, what makes trend following so robust and what are the limitations for traditional statistics? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Richard Brennan.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What has been on our radar recently?

03:08 - Industry performance update

08:21 - Q1, Adam: In terms of loose pants, how loose is too loose?

13:36 - Trading with different models

15:42 - Adam Q2: What is a reasonable sample size in real trade observations, to compare against backtest statistics?

18:23 - A deep dive into complex adaptive systems (CAS)

20:29 - The 5 properties of CAS

25:24 - Examples of non-linearty in financial markets

30:50 - Emerging properties in financial markets

33:59 - Self organization

36:33 - Adaption and evolution

40:10 - Feedback loops

43:11 - What does CAS and trend following have in common?

49:38 - The limitations of traditional statistics

01:01:14 - Summing it all up

01:04:48 - What's next?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO18: Asset Allocation a la carte ft. David Kelly

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 03:00:00 +0100

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow David on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly

05:44 - What has become of the recession?

08:38 - Are we missing an accident?

11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?

13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?

14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?

17:15 - What happened to the bond market?

19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?

21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade

23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.

27:29 - A new equilibrium

30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale

33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment

35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?

39:04 - The magnificent seven

40:50 - A political mess

44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?

47:55 - Managing the labour shortage

50:13 - An all-time high misery

51:36 - A discontent with the economy

53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape

56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?

57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?

59:07 - Advice for investors

01:01:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI272: Disrupting the Asset Management Industry ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 02 Dec 2023 06:15:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer, who helps us uncover why managed futures have been struggling in 2023 and and what makes this year so different from 2022. We discuss the history of replication strategies all the way back to its origins and the intricacies of Andrew’s own replication strategy, and how disruptions have change the asset management industry and if the replicators are now facing their own competition from more pure CTA ETF offerings. We debate if Managed Futures have been "commoditized" and how the 60/40 portfolio is making a comeback this year and if 2022 was just a "fluke".

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:35 - What has caught our attention recently?

04:04 - Industry performance update

08:08 - How bad 2023 is for managed futures?

13:19 - A turn away from trend?

18:29 - Timeframe and lookback in CTA replication

27:02 - The details of Andrew's trading approach

33:01 - How increased competition impacts Andrew's trading

41:31 - How low can you go, when it comes to fees?

48:17 - The great underestimated risk

51:30 - What drives asset flows?

01:00:04 - Is 60/40 back on track?

01:07:13 - Just look at the AUM

01:11:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI03: The inner workings of a High-Frequency Strategy ft. Anant Jatia

Wed, 29 Nov 2023 10:00:00 +0100

Anant Jatia, the founder and CEO of Greenland Investment Management, joins Moritz Seibert for a commodities-focused conversation. In this episode, Anant explains how Greenland developed from currency market making to what today is predominantly an HFT-driven commodities arbitrage fund. Anant has a detailed understanding of the workings of physical commodity markets and focuses Greenland’s trades on location and substitution arbitrage trades. Moritz and Anant discuss several exemplary trades in detail, including sizing and portfolio implementation, and focus on the tail exposures which could materialize while the trade is active. This is a detailed and somewhat technical episode and a must-listen for anyone interested in commodities arbitrage trading.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Anant on LinkedIn

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to Anant Jatia

06:39 - Anant's experience from working at AQR

08:46 - How did Anant's firm evolve over time?

10:44 - How difficult is High-Frequency Trading?

14:33 - What is their current trading strategy?

17:07 - An example of one of their trades

21:17 - Staying away from the physical side

23:33 - Tracking the market and executing trades

27:18 - Managing the cost of trades

29:58 - How did they get through the Covid19 period?

34:37 - How many markets are they trading?

36:49 - The process of trading copper

38:43 - How do you obtain transportation costs?

40:47 - Achieving the optimal trading efficiency

43:37 - A multi-legged trading strategy

47:34 - Anant's perspective on the Natural Gas markets

50:50 - Putting it all together

54:39 - Building for negative tail events

57:26 - What kind of exposure do they have?

59:17 - Key takeaways

59:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI271: Can Slippage be a Source of Alpha? ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 25 Nov 2023 06:30:00 +0100

Today, Mark Rzepczynski and I dissect the macro rally we are experiencing at the moment. We discuss why we are seeing an increasing attention to what CTAs are doing, how survey data regarding the economy confuses investors and markets, and we address some of the most common questions that investors ask in meetings at the moment. Additionally, we discuss how explanatory depth can be applied to trend following, why it is critical to master your attention and speed of adjustment and we wrap up debating how much slippage a trend follower should expect and if slippage can be turned into a new source of alpha.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:21 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?

02:20 - Industry performance update

04:51 - What is going on in the markets?

09:01 - Reverse engineering the CTAs

11:45 - Confusion in the markets

14:38 - Are we being lied to about inflation?

20:24 - Mixed signals

22:14 - What are investors asking in meetings at the moment?

25:33 - Modeling with personality

32:25 - Losers create diversification

36:13 - Things that are often being forgotten

38:15 - Narratives and explanatory depth

47:04 - Are short-term models better than longer-term models?

50:34 - Does new = better?

56:42 - Getting the backtest and transactions costs right

59:31 - Don't overstep your capacity

01:01:29 - Minimizing slippage

01:04:23 - What is a reasonable level of slippage

01:06:48 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM53: The Misdiagnosis of the Global Economy ft. Dario Perkins

Wed, 22 Nov 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Dario Perkins joins Alan Dunne in this episode for an insightful and thought-provoking discussion on the global economic outlook. Dario outlines how many economists and strategists misdiagnosed the global economy coming into 2023 by assuming it was in a typical business cycle which was not the case. The conversation delves into the subtle structural shifts which are underway in the global economy including a shift higher in inflation with 2% now a floor whereas previously it was a ceiling, the shift towards more active industrial policy and the politically driven changing super cycle away from neoliberalism. What this points to is greater volatility in inflation, a secular bear market in bonds, a more positive outlook for value versus growth and a shift in the bond equity correlation as stagflationary episodes are more frequent.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Dario on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - Introduction to Dario Perkins

07:18 - Why is this cycle so different?

12:27 - Where are we now?

17:40 - Have we seen the full extent of the cycle?

23:16 - How is Europe vulnerable to the tightening from ECB?

26:37 - A sticky inflation

28:35 - Why have we seen a big jump in bond yields?

32:52 - A concern for real-estate?

38:03 - What is the next decade going to look like?

46:21 - Are central bankers bluffing?

51:15 - Will there be limits to physical policy?

59:11 - The outlook for asset allocation and currencies

01:03:42 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI270: CPI, Trend Reversals & Dalio on US-China War ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 18 Nov 2023 13:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Alan Dunne for a wide ranging conversation, covering pressing global macro issues, the latest trend following research, JP Morgan's outlook for the 60/40 portfolio, following a week dominated by the release of the CPI numbers. We discuss how and why Ray Dalio believes the hot war between the US and China is changing and why the US is seeing an unusually low savings rate at the moment and why Alan believes there are plenty of possibilities in the non-trend space. We also discuss the benefits that trend following can add to your portfolio, how Blackstone is boosting the leverage in one of its Credit Funds...and if this seems like a good idea and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:08 - What has been on our radar recently?

09:44 - Industry performance update

15:33 - A new war in sight?

21:17 - News about the US savings rate

23:54 - A positive outlook for productivity?

30:13 - CFM paper on the benefit of non-trend strategies

41:57 - J.P. Morgan paper on the outlook of the 60/40 portfolio

50:28 - Quantica paper on trend vs global tactical asset allocation

58:12 - FT article on Blackstone borrowing to boost lending power

01:03:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI02: Are QI Strategies Sustainable? ft. Maia Mathieson & Faheem Osman

Wed, 15 Nov 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Maia Mathieson and Faheem Osman, both Managing Directors at Macquarie Bank in London speak with Moritz Seibert about the bank’s growing Quantitative Investment Strategies (QIS) business and how their rules-based indices can help investors to efficiently access various risk premium strategies across asset classes. Maia and Faheem explain the key return drivers behind their commodity-focused strategies, for example curve carry and congestion, and explain why they believe these to be structurally sustainable. We also discuss their client base and how the Macquarie QIS team focuses on designing robust indices that are not curve-fit to historical data.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Maia on LinkedIn

Follow Faheem on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Maia & Faheem

08:48 - What are the most popular return drivers?

11:35 - What is driving carry trading?

15:10 - When does carry trading stop working?

17:23 - Combing strategies for more diversification

20:26 - Why does the volatility carry factor exist in the commodity space?

22:52 - How do they have an advantage over their competitors?

24:40 - What is their core client base?

28:38 - How are they giving their clients an edge?

30:25 - Concerns about the commodity space

32:30 - How they analyze and validate their work

36:23 - A long term strategy

40:01 - How have they evolved over time?

43:20 - A changing landscape?

46:54 - A move towards machine learning and AI

48:59 - Learning from other asset classes

51:36 - An increased interest in non-standard commodity markets

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI269: Is the Big Bond Short Over? ft. Katy Kaminski

Sun, 12 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Today’s conversation with Katy Kaminiski is all about change. We discuss what has been the driver of the changing economic environment that we experience and how changing interest rates affect trend followers, why Katy believes we need a repricing in long term yields and how the yield curve is a key factor in trend followers profitability. Katy also explains her outlook for the markets, how you build portfolios in the current economic environment and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - What has been on Katy's radar recently?

04:24 - A precursor for the conversation

05:21 - Industry performance update

07:19 - Katy's trend following perspective

11:40 - Discussing Katy's paper, "The Short of Shorting Bonds"

16:06 - The results of the paper

21:12 - Why the shape of the yield curve makes a difference

24:52 - Why trend followers make more money when the yield curve is inverted

26:59 - Does higher rates always mean you have to be short bonds?

33:15 - Do you earn interest on the money that are put up for margin?

35:12 - Where are we in the markets right now?

37:26 - The forecasting behaviour is difficult to change

42:52 - Different people, different perspectives

46:39 - Doing what happens next

48:12 - Best practices when analyzing the data

54:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM52: The Re-Emergence of the Bond Vigilantes ft. Ed Yardeni

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Ed Yardeni, President and Chief Investment Strategist at Yardeni Research joins us today to discuss the re-emergence of the bond vigilantes, a term Ed coined four decades ago. We discuss why bond investors are pushing up long-term bond yields and what are the prospects are for a debt crisis in the US. Ed outlines his view that we may see “rolling recessions” rather than a sharp economic downturn but that he has recently increased his probability of a hard landing. We examine the parallels between the current cycle and the past, particularly the 1990s and discuss whether the recent improvement can be sustained over the medium term and what it means for equity markets.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Edward on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:22 - Introduction to Ed Yardini

07:07 - Why has the economics profession got it wrong again?

11:06 - What should we feel the maximum impact of the tightening?

14:43 - Why are we seeing a change in bond yields?

19:18 - Are we spiralling into a crisis?

25:19 - The outlook for the debt crisis

29:08 - Will AI save us?

32:22 - Analysing productivity and growth

36:05 - Learning from history - what is different this time?

41:40 - The baby boom generation - inflationary or deflationary?

44:06 - China and Japan being deflationary?

45:23 - Are emerging markets benefitting from deglobalization?

47:50 - The outlook for equities

52:14 - The U.S vs the rest

53:32 - Advice for new investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI268: Are Investors Wrongly Positioned for the New World Order? ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 04 Nov 2023 20:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan returns to help us uncover the art of tail hedging and whether he views the January 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point and start of a new bear market. We discuss the latest events in the macro space, especially regarding the conflict in the Middle East, and how it impacts markets, why Niels believes we are probably heading towards a world where investors are completely wrongly positioned and why it is important to think differently when it comes to asset allocation. Lastly, Cem explains how the incoming holiday season acts as a volatility compression mechanism, what he took away from the recent CBOE RMC Conference and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:08 - What has been on Cem's radar recently?

03:15 - Industry performance update

05:25 - Q1, Tim: What systematic strategies would Cem suggest for hedging risk from a risk premia strategy with a trend following bias?

12:20 - Q2, Rick: Does Cem view the Jan 2024 OpEx as a possible inflection point (to the downside)?

15:52 - What is new in the macro space?

23:16 - Is the MOVE index behaving as it should?

27:43 - Is Japan a joker when it comes to interest rates?

32:17 - Hidden dangers?

36:12 - Wars - a driver of spending, deficits and inflation

40:28 - What current Flows are telling us

45:48 - Cem's takeaways from the CBOE RMC Conference

01:02:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

OI1: Cracking the Code of Commodity Spread Trading ft. Mauritz van den Worm

Wed, 01 Nov 2023 14:00:00 +0100

You are invited to an eye-opening conversation with Mauritz van den Worm, a quant researcher at Polarstar, a commodities-focused hedge fund in Cape Town, South Africa, hosted by Moritz Seibert. In this inaugural episode of the Open Interest series, Mauritz takes us on a journey through the fascinating world of commodity spreads. We explore not only calendar spreads but also delve into cross-market substitution spreads, location arbitrage trades, and processing margin spreads.

Discover how PolarStar navigates the intricate South African commodity markets and the critical role they play in their portfolio. Additionally, Mauritz shares an intriguing firsthand account of PolarStar's position in the US versus European grain spreads at the onset of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Learn how a simultaneous limit-up in the US and limit-down in Europe led to what Mauritz humorously refers to as "a few gray hairs." This is a must-listen for anyone intrigued by the complexities and strategies behind commodity trading.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Follow Mauritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:09 - Introduction to the new series

03:28 - Introduction to Mauritz van den Worm and PolarStar Management

09:53 - A deep dive into the South African market

16:26 - What kind of trader is Polar Star Management?

19:55 - Entering and exiting trades

23:37 - How PolarStar Management establishes and analyzes trades

30:53 - How PolarStar uses data

33:39 - Different kinds of maize (corn)

35:07 - How you size a spread within a portfolio

39:39 - The role and importance of storage

45:14 - Adjusting for seasonality

47:06 - Looking back on the last 2 years

49:47 - Why did traders not want European wheat?

55:46 - What happened to the wheat market?

56:58 - How tough is the commodity space?

59:16 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI267: A Masterclass in Absolute vs Cross Sectional Momentum ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 28 Oct 2023 20:00:00 +0100

In today’s episode, Richard Brennan takes us on a tour around the Australian economy and how the investment landscape is changing. We also discuss how different investment philosophies demand different interpretations and why the “one size fits all” approach does not exist, how cross-sectional momentum differs from absolute momentum. Lastly, we discuss why Richard uses an ensemble of trend following systems and why he always strives for maximum diversification, and why I feel we should not introduce divisiveness in the trend following industry and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What is happening in Australia at the moment?

07:53 - The investment landscape is changing

09:57 - Best UCITS Managed Futures Fund revealed

13:17 - Industry performance update

16:25 - Why does OJ keep rising?

19:54 - There is no "one size fits all" approaches

26:44 - How does cross-sectional momentum work?

31:12 - The importance of correlation

40:26 - Nuancing "treating all markets equally"

48:00 - The use of continuous signals

53:03 - How does absolute momentum works?

59:13 - Discussing sample size

01:01:30 - The principle of no selection bias

01:04:16 - Why Rich uses traditional risk measures

01:06:56 - Letting profits run to their conclusion

01:08:03 - Single asset level risk vs portfolio level risk

01:08:59 - Releasing the risk steam

01:10:37 - Using simple models

01:13:46 - Trend following - not so black and white?

01:22:45 - Thanks for hanging in there

01:24:11 - What's up for next week?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO17: Inflation, Volatility, and AI: Ruffer's Bold Market Insights ft. Matt Smith

Wed, 25 Oct 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Today we are joined by Matt Smith, Investment Director at Ruffer for a fascinating discussion on global markets, asset allocation and how history can guide us in the current global macro landscape. Matt explains why Ruffer is defensively positioned at the moment, why he is sceptical of the AI rally in stocks in recent months and where is he sees opportunity in markets at the moment. We discuss the secular outlook for inflation and why Matt believes we sill see greater volatility and a trend higher in inflation over time and what that means for asset allocation. We also delve into the parallels between the current investing and global macro environment versus the past particularly the period between 1940 and 1970 and hear about some of the key books that have influenced Matt as an investor.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Matt on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:54 - Introduction to Matt Smith

07:51 - The resilience of the economy

11:50 - Matt's portfolio construction process

16:23 - Skepticism about the goldilocks

21:57 - The outlook for inflation

30:56 - The risk and fear of structural inflation

40:27 - What we can learn from history

46:19 - The process of finding insights from history

51:09 - Matt's perspective on financial repression

54:57 - Advice for other investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI266: Constructing and Assessing Trading Strategies ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 21 Oct 2023 13:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver is back this week speaking with Alan Dunne about constructing and assessing trend following and non-trend following trading strategies. We delve into mean reversion strategies and over what time frames they might be effective and what are the pitfalls in trying to combine trend following with mean reversion. We also discuss the theory and reality of the benefits of faster trend following, Rob’s experience of this and his approach avoiding over-fitting when constructing trading strategies. We wrap up with some thoughts on AHL’s Trend ETF and how a strategy trading 20 markets might perform versus a more diversified program.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Follow Alan on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:00 - Update on recent events?

09:13 - Industry performance update

09:38 - Why is it going so well for Rob?

12:15 - The ongoing debate on term premia

17:40 - Returns in bonds versus equities

21:13 - Q1, Andrej: What's your take on systematic strategies complimenting trend?

35:22 - Q2, Harry: Can you speak about the lure of high frequency strategies for traders with modest capital?

40:46 - The challenges of fast trend following

42:15 - Trading with different account sizes

45:07 - Q3, Ravi: Techniques to prevent overfitting of a strategy

51:45 - Using boot strapping

52:42 - Q4.1, Tommy: What's your take on the AHL trend ETF?

59:20 - Q4.2, Tommy: Which scenarios do you expect equities and trend to be highly correlated?

01:01:12 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL6: UAPs - What Are We Really Dealing With? ft. Larry Hancock

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 15:00:00 +0100

There is no secret more carefully guarded than that of how to make atomic weapons. Nuclear technology can power us with clean energy or destroy all of human civilization. It has been alleged for decades that there is a correlation between UAP encounters and nukes, a suggestion that seems intuitive because if an advanced civilization was monitoring us, any breakthroughs in nuclear physics would certainly represent a key developmental milestone. In this episode join our Galactic Macro series host David Dorr as he interviews Larry Hancock, one of the preeminent scientific investigators into UAPs and the co-author of UAP Pattern Recognition Study 1945-1975 US Military Warfare Complex and UAP Indications Analysis, 1945-1975 United States Atomic Warfare Complex. Larry gives us a sobering analysis of the data and the facts which make it clear that we are not alone.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Buy Larry's books here.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:27 - Introduction to Larry Hancock

05:34 - How classified programs work in the U.S

13:23 - Has the Air Force lied about UAP observations?

17:09 - UAP activity around nuclear technology

22:33 - What are "they" interested in?

24:03 - The physics of UAPs

29:35 - Are UAP crashes real?

34:19 - The unusualness of the UAP Disclosure Act

38:50 - Are UAP encounters increasing?

46:53 - What are we dealing with?

52:09 - Are we getting closer or further from disclosure?

57:19 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI265: Deep Dive Into Non-Trend Complementary Strategies ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 14 Oct 2023 03:00:00 +0100

Nick Baltas is back this week to talk about the use of non-trend strategies in diversified managed futures portfolios. What is the rationale for the existence of a carry risk premia? How durable are the returns? What are some of the key thing things to keep in mind implementing a carry strategy? These are some of the questions we discuss as we deep dive into the use of carry alongside trend following. We also discuss reversion strategies and how skewness plays a part in their construction. And we discuss how all of these strategies may relate to the fact that the investment world may now be in the midst of what Howard Marks calls a Sea Change, driven by higher bond yields.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:48 - What has caught our attention in markets?

04:08 - Construction portfolios with non-trend complimentary strategies

09:59 - What is driving non-trend strategies like carry?

17:28 - Adding carry to trend

22:52 - How to use utility functions

25:08 - Defining the variables

28:09 - Advice for implementing a carry strategy

36:22 - Nick's perspective on reversion strategies

40:21 - Moving beyond single stocks

47:48 - Skewness in commodities

54:30 - How climate change impacts investment strategies

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO16: Beyond 60-40... A Bold Approach to Asset Allocation ft. Troy Gayeski

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 12:00:00 +0100

Troy Gayeski, Chief Market Strategist for FS Investments, joins us today to discuss asset allocation and investment opportunities in today’s higher yield environment. We discuss how higher interests rates are impacting the risk and reward across capital markets and why higher interest rates mean equity valuations may be stretched at the current juncture. We discuss how asset allocation has evolved from the 60-40 benchmark to a 40-30-30 allocation for many institutional investors with a 30% allocation to alternatives. We delve into where Troy sees opportunities within alternatives particularly in real estate, private equity, secondaries and liquid alternatives given his view that we are late in the economic cycle.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Troy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:44 - Introduction to Troy Gayeski

11:36 - A top-down macro perspective

19:43 - The state of the 60/40 portfolio

26:37 - How do investors react to the interest rate?

30:47 - Analyzing the alt space

35:50 - Advice for allocating to real estate

40:00 - An overweight of privates?

44:02 - A mockdown in valuations - an unfolding process or mostly done?

46:30 - Opportunities and positioning in the liquid space

52:42 - Building a diversified liquid alts portfolio

55:09 - Is old school global macro still viable?

57:15 - Troy's perspective on AI tools

01:00:25 - Advice for other investors

01:02:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI264: The Evolution of the Trend Following Industry ft. Andrew Beer & Alan Dunne

Sat, 07 Oct 2023 11:00:00 +0100

Andrew Beer joins us to discuss a recent research report from Morningstar (called Market Wizards Wave Their Wands but Investors Miss the Magic) which highlights the challenges investors have in timing managed futures allocations. We get Andrew’s perspective on the evolution of the managed futures industry, particularly the evolving ETF and UCITS markets and discuss whether the CTA industry is on the road to commoditisation. We wrap up discussing a recent FT article which suggests more attractive hedge fund manager may underperform…but may be more successful in raising assets.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Andrew Beer on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:04 - What's been on our radar recently?

06:02 - A growing appetite for trend following?

10:45 - Who is to blame?

15:03 - Commoditization in managed futures

20:16 - Is commoditization the "right" word?

21:38 - The best way to express an equity value strategy

25:05 - How the SG Trend Index has evolved over time

30:10 - The evolution of the trend following industry

37:01 - A case of market segmentation?

40:00 - Are ETFs the future?

46:27 - Managed futures and trend following in Europe

52:24 - A discussion on fees

54:54 - Capacity - a reason for concern?

58:59 - The Alpha of Ugliness

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM51: Allocating Assets when Goldilocks Inverse ft. Christian Mueller-Glissmann

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 10:00:00 +0100

Goldman Sachs Head of Asset Allocation Research, Christian Mueller-Glissmann shares his current investment framework with Cem Karsan and I today. It's an important conversation as it touches on so many of the most important questions that investors, individual as well as institutional, are faced with right now. How we as investors should allocate our capital taking into account the ever changing Global Macro regimes was fascinating to explore, with one of the sharpest thinkers on this topic. Like Cem and I, you will be impressed with the depth of research and knowledge that Christian shared in our conversation.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Christian on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - Introduction to Christian Mueller-Glissmann

04:05 - The global macro perspective

08:13 - The changing relationship between stocks and bonds

12:25 - Structural and cyclical issues

21:35 - Is this inflation different?

28:15 - The lag of structural effects

32:04 - The age of abundance

36:45 - Time to shift back to active management

43:10 - The introduction of derivatives and how it affects the economy

52:21 - A move away from bonds and how it will affect us

01:00:06 - Does the interest cycle exist?

01:00:52 - The Dynamic Balanced Bear

01:03:21 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI263: Changes aren't permanent, but change is ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 30 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Q3 is behind us, and we take stock of how is the trend following industry holding up? Is passthrough fees becoming a problem for investors in the multi-strategy space? Do we still have a bubble economy? Have we lost our imagination of what can happen in the economy? And why is it important to understand psychology when building models? Join us for this fascinating conversation with Mark Rzepczynski where we discuss this, and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:09 - What's on Mark's radar righ now?

07:25 - Multi-strategies and passthrough fees

19:13 - Industry performance update

22:28 - How is the industry holding up?

25:47 - Big moves in the commodity space

28:55 - Performance numbers

30:02 - The more things change, the more they stay the same

41:04 - Imagine the unimaginable

46:42 - How psychology impacts markets

53:45 - When and when not to be a trend follower

59:49 - A chronological snobbery?

01:04:03 - Important announcement

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM50: A Century of Disorder ft. Helen Thompson

Wed, 27 Sep 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Helen Thompson of Cambridge University, author of Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century, as we take a big picture perspective on the current global macro landscape. A key focus of Helen’s work is the role of energy markets in understanding global macro developments and we delve into Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. We hear about the factors which enabled Europe avoid an energy shortage in the winter of 2022 but why energy markets remain a risk factor for the Eurozone economy. We discuss the shift towards more proactive industrial policy in the US, what is driving it and how it relates to deglobalization. We also discuss China, its economic challenges and its evolving role in the Middle East and whether the global economy is truly fragmenting into distinct trading blocs. We get Helen’s perspective on the US dollar’s reserve status and why the US’s role in the international monetary order is as strong as ever and get her thoughts on the next year’s US presidential election.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Helen on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:36 - Introduction to Helen Thompson

06:31 - Why did she write her book, "Disorder: Hard Times in the 21st Century"?

10:15 - The outlook for Europe's oil and gas dependency

17:23 - A longer-term structural challenge?

21:21 - A rebirth of the industrial policy

25:39 - Deglobalization - how real is it?

29:31 - What has caused the roll-back of globalization?

34:13 - When will we see a shift back to disciplined physical policies?

37:49 - Is the secular stagnation behind us?

42:06 - Should we expect more frequent spikes in oil prices?

44:25 - The shifting Saudi-US relationship - a potential risk?

48:35 - A challenged dollar?

53:16 - Is this time different?

57:38 - The civil discontent in the U.S.

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI262: Opportunities in FX fueled by the FED ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 23 Sep 2023 10:00:00 +0100

Tune in for this week’s trend following conversation with Alan Dunne, where we discuss Barry Eichengreen’s paper on living with high public debt and how the high level of debt can be addressed, the relationship between interest rates and GDP, how Forex trading have evolved over time and why it is having a renaissance at the moment. We also discuss return expectations in markets and diversified strategies and Alan reports what he experienced from a recent investor event in Paris.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:57 - What has been on Alan's radar recently?

04:55 - Industry performance update

08:16 - Living with high public debt

20:27 - Other investors' view on the high level of debt

24:10 - How the trading of FX markets have evolved

32:58 - Do you need specialists to trade markets?

37:45 - China imposing trading restrictions?

40:36 - Where returns may go from here?

48:49 - High interest rates not beneficial for high leverage strategies?

51:05 - Inside knowledge from Paris Investor event

59:11 - Alan to host upcoming Systematic Investor episodes

01:00:29 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL21: How China Manages Their FX Reserves ft. Zongyuan Zoe Liu

Wed, 20 Sep 2023 07:00:00 +0100

In this episode we lift the veil on China’s often secretive system for managing its multi-trillion dollar holdings of foreign assets. Guiding us through the discussion is Dr. Zhongyuan Zoe Liu, the Maurice R. Greenberg fellow for China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Dr. Liu spent years researching financial reports and conducting in-person interviews with those involved in running China’s multiple “Sovereign Leveraged Funds”. We discuss how they evolved, what purposes they serve for the Communist party and why other countries may soon follow China’s lead. The interview is based on Dr. Liu’s new book: How The Communist Party of China Finances Its Global Ambitions.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Zongyuan on Twitter and Read her Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Intro

03:52 - Sebastien’s journey into the investment management industry

07:45 - How Sebastien’s book came about

19:43 - Investing in a rising interest rate environment

24:06 - Responding to unexpected regime shifts in the markets

33:24 - Defining and achieving utility maximisation

37:48 - The merits and drawbacks of mean variance analysis

58:51 - The durability of treasury bonds

01:05:18 - Lessons from research on high performance individuals and teams

01:07:58 - Achieving a state of ‘flow’

01:10:58 - Simplifying complex financial topics

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI261: The Biggest Story in Asset Allocation ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 16 Sep 2023 09:00:00 +0100

Today Nick Baltas and I embark on a journey through the shifting tides of investment strategy. For decades, equities have reigned supreme as the primary source of portfolio returns, while bonds played a crucial role as diversifiers. But over the past two decades, something intriguing has happened, and the dynamic between these two asset classes has evolved in ways we've never seen before. Stay tuned as we unravel the fascinating story of this transformation and explore what it means for modern investors. We also discuss what a leading Trend Follower describes as what really determins absolute returns in a trend following strategy...and you may be surprised of what it is.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:07 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

03:02 - Industry performance update

04:30 - Q1, Corey: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes

10:31 - How model portfolios can benefit from trend following

19:02 - A Changing Stock-Bond Correlation (AQR Paper)

23:50 - How structural inflation can impact the stock-bond correlation

27:46 - Illiquid alternatives and commodities as diversifiers

35:27 - Significant shifts in the asset allocation space

38:14 - Is cash better than bonds?

41:40 - Paper from Transtrend

47:15 - What really drives the absolute return in a trend following portfolio

52:23 - Network Momentum across Asset Classes (Oxford-Man Institute paper)

57:08 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM49: Unveiling the Power of Confidence ft. Peter Atwater

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for a captivating episode where we delve into the hidden influence of confidence in our decision-making. Discover why seemingly unprecedented events are often predictable with the right insights. Peter Atwater provides an accessible framework for understanding confidence, helping us navigate uncertainty and lack of control. Our conversation delves into how confidence impacts politics and the economy, as well as how we can nurture confidence in the younger generation to face life's challenges with resilience. Tune in to gain valuable perspectives on the role of confidence in shaping our world.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:04 - What does confidence mean to Peter?

04:38 - The feeling of vulnerability

06:19 - Being in the present

07:57 - Understanding the confidence map

12:08 - How to become confident

13:32 - Peter's advice for the younger audience

17:02 - Having confidence is not a constant

17:48 - Learnings from a traumatic experience

21:23 - Map it out

22:33 - Why is sentiment changing so quickly?

28:05 - The generational shift

30:49 - Is crypto the new Woodstock?

36:15 - Is the Fed losing the confidence of the markets?

42:57 - When does panic occur?

44:28 - Does it apply to markets as well?

48:34 - Thoughts on the current political situation

56:51 - Addressing major societal problems

02:03:56 - The challenges of fake news and media

02:06:14 - Process - an underrated advantage?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI260: The Voldemort of the Asset Management Business ft. Andrew Beer

Sat, 09 Sep 2023 12:00:00 +0100

Is the economy actually doing better than we expected? This week we are joined by Andrew Beer, where we discuss the use of replication strategies in the current economic environment and how many markets/factors you should include, how managers can differentiate themselves from each other and the outlook for growth in the CTA industry. We also discuss the challenges of the Lemming effect in investing and today’s obsession with multi-strategy hedge funds, the capacity of the trend following industry and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:20 - What has happened recently?

05:51 - Industry performance update?

07:13 - Are managed futures funds are right for replication?

13:55 - How did they test it?

17:23 - Are economies becoming less synchronised?

25:02 - How many markets are enough for replication?

29:01 - Why are people going into alternative markets?

32:58 - Have managers become more different or similar?

41:02 - Industry disruptions - how is Andrew different?

47:22 - Why CTA assets will be much higher in 10 years

54:44 - How Andrew resist making changes to his replication strategy

56:54 - Train wreck in hedge fund land

01:04:02 - How do multi-strat funds manage their expenses?

01:08:25 - The challenges of the industry

01:14:21 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL05: Pumping the BRICS Agenda & Hidden Risks ft. Nelson Rangel

Wed, 06 Sep 2023 15:00:00 +0100

In this episode we are joined by a true Macro thinker, Nelson Rangel, CIO at Raven Capital. Nelson walks us through his fascinating lens of the world evolved from his formative career years where his mentors taught him chaos theory and quantitative analysis. The conversation delves in to global conflict, adapting to social media information flows, and the challenges of finding investment value in LATAM markets. Be sure to stick around to the very end where Nelson leaves us with a cliff hanger as he reveals the beginning of his three part investment framework to interpret the impact of human contact with more advanced civilizations!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Nelson on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:32 - Introduction to Nelson Rangel

08:09 - Takeaways from being exposed to chaos theory

12:29 - A look around the globe

17:37 - Reflecting on the U.S debt

21:17 - How is the next decade unfolding for China?

25:29 - The BRICs taking over the monetary system

30:38 - Who is behind the manipulation of narrative on social media?

34:58 - Being adaptable to new scenarios

39:26 - Advice for investing in South America

48:14 - News about UAPs (UFOs)

56:24 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI259: Trend Following & the New Normal ft. Katy Kaminski

Sat, 02 Sep 2023 18:00:00 +0100

Today, we welcome Katy Kaminski to the Systematic Investor Series, as we dive deep into trend following systems and how to overcome the unintended biases that can creep into CTA systems, why Katy believes everybody has to “go back to the drawing board”, why it is unrealistic to expect things to go back to “normal”, and why Katy believes we are not in a crisis but rather a correction. We also discuss how a crisis is in the eye of the beholder and shed light on the current global macro narrative. We round things off uncovering why Katy believes bonds are mispriced, why "simple" trend following strategies persist to thrive and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Katy on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:16 - What has caught our attention recently?

03:43 - Industry performance update

06:06 - The challenge of bias in trend following systems

13:54 - Taking the bonds out?

16:22 - Advice on trading universal parameters

19:35 - Going back to normal - a fantasy?

23:35 - Trend following - a long divergence strategy

26:31 - Are we actually in a crisis?

32:05 - Are crises becoming shorter and shorter?

36:38 - How does Katy define a crisis?

37:40 - A different understanding of trend following?

40:32 - Are there different types of crises?

45:55 - A global macro perspective

51:38 - Are bonds mispriced?

55:37 - From predictable to unpredictable inflation

59:11 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM48: Resilient Growth BUT Economic Downturn Ahead ft. Chen Zhao

Wed, 30 Aug 2023 02:00:00 +0100

Chen Zhao, co-founder and Chief Global Strategist at Alpine Macro joins us today to outline why growth has been resilient in 2023 but why he sees deflation and an economic downturn as a rising risk as we move into in 2024. We hear why the best global macro trades are the hardest to hold and why he believes long fixed income is the best trade at the moment. We discuss the long term outlook for growth and inflation in the major economies and hear why Chen is dismissive of the idea that deglobalisation and the greening of the global economy may be inflationary forces going forward. We also discuss investment opportunities in Japan and emerging markets and hear why Chen is concerned about the macro outlook in China but sees value in the local stock market.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Chen on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:13 - Who is Chen Zhao?

06:19 - Why has the economy been so resilient?

11:20 - The typical electoral cycle?

16:44 - The outlook for inflation

19:27 - Concerns about stagflation - valid or not?

26:07 - Rates going back to zero?

28:48 - Achieving high sustained investment growth

31:01 - The effect of moving towards climate friendly production

32:57 - China - a deflationary force

38:38 - Bond yields - any surprises?

39:29 - Concerns about the U.S. debt dynamics?

42:07 - Have yields reached their peak?

42:54 - The situation in Europe

45:20 - Back to the 2010s?

46:36 - A global increase in spending?

47:37 - Concerns from a global risk perspective

51:00 - The Japanese economy

52:35 - The outlook for emerging markets

54:45 - Advice for other traders

55:59 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI258: Absolute Momentum in a Chaotic Environment ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 26 Aug 2023 18:00:00 +0100

Richard Brennan is back to discuss the lurking uncertainty in the economy and take a deep dive into absolute momentum. What is it, how is it used and how does it relate to trend following? How does complex systems really function and evolve over time and what role does correlation play in system design? And financial markets is in fact chaotic systems, then how do predictive modellers trade them? Is there an edge from price following techniques in their ability to trade in highly complex and sometimes chaotic environment? Why noise is not as random as it might occur, how risk should be calculated in complex systems and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:31 - What has happened since last conversation?

08:04 - Industry perfomance update

14:08 - Q1, Correy: If an investor is heavily weighed equities, as most are, are they better off with trend following providers that don't include equities as one of the utilized asset classes?

20:06 - A deep dive into absolute momentum

30:30 - Different implementations, same results

45:47 - The role of correlation

50:56 - Calculating risk in complicated systems

01:14:10 - The weakness of the Sharpe Ratio

01:21:04 - Know your manager well

01:24:19 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL20: How to Survive the Current Fourth Turning ft. Neil Howe

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Best-selling author and renowned historian Neil Howe joins the show to talk about his New York Times’ bestselling book The Fourth Turning Is Here. Neil believes history moves in generational cycles that last about the length of one long human life. Each cycle has four eras - Turnings - that always arrive in the same order and last about twenty years. We are now midway through a Fourth Turning which is a time of exceptional upheaval and conflict. Previous Fourth Turnings happened during the Great Depression and WWII, the American Civil War and the American Revolution. The good news is a society that successfully navigates a Fourth Turning emerges reborn - more equal, more optimistic and more united. We discuss the implications of this era for financial markets, why it will be the Millennial generation that leads us through the coming conflict and what will characterize the world that emerges afterwards.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Neil on Twitter and Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Introduction to Neil Howe

03:43 - What characterise each turning?

17:53 - A generation cliff

25:18 - The importance of the financial crisis in 2008

27:55 - Cycles are non linear

30:08 - Every crisis has a catalyst

35:56 - A polarised and divided world

41:29 - Can conflict bring us together?

48:30 - The outlook for war and conflict

52:12 - A millennial revolution

58:18 - Will boomers give up?

01:07:48 - How will society change?

01:19:57 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI257: Preparing for a Volatile Future ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 19 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan joins us for a wide ranging conversation where we discuss the current volatility environment and if vol trading can actually be predictable, the current Fourth Turning and how this will impact the level of volatility and where Cem’s outlook differ from Neil Howe's, why demographics is “destiny” and the current tug of war between flows and macro. We also discuss why Cem is watching NASDAQ so closely and the historic rotations that are happening in markets at the moment, why Cem believes it is important to “be water” and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:56 - What has caught Cem's attention recently?

03:14 - Volatility and seasonal patterns

08:27 - Industry performance update

09:34 - Is vol trading predictable?

17:15 - Why are vol spikes becoming shorter?

20:19 - Cem's take on the fourth turning

33:12 - Why is demographics so critical today?

39:04 - A tug of war between flows and macro

50:28 - A new all time high for stocks?

52:07 - Major moves in markets

01:00:58 - Too bullish too soon?

01:03:03 - Be flexible, be water

01:06:07 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM47: Is the Economy Actually Doing Better Than Expected? ft. Peter Berezin

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist and Research Director at BCA Research joins us today for a wide ranging discussion on the outlook for global economy and global capital markets. We hear why Peter has been more upbeat than the consensus on the outlook for the US economy but why he continues to believe that the outlook is for recession next year. He outlines why US stocks may continue to make gains in the near term but the outlook is much more challenging on a five-year view. We discuss his Kinked Philips Curve framework for analysing the economy and why that continues to point to declining inflation in the near term. We also discuss the outlook for China, the renminbi, the yen and global emerging markets.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Peter on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Introduction to Peter Berezin

05:35 - The current state of the U.S economy

10:14 - Where is inflation heading?

16:24 - A wrong prediction?

20:23 - How will markets be impacted by AI and new tech?

24:39 - How has the economy withstood higher rates?

27:10 - What does Peter's models show us?

31:32 - Challenges in the credit space

33:33 - The implications of high valuations

36:08 - Potential weaknesses in the system

40:45 - Looking outside of the U.S.

44:43 - The outlook for currencies

47:03 - Emerging markets and the geopolitical situation in China

49:43 - How is Asia holding up?

52:08 - Are we going to see changes in the inflation target?

56:21 - The big picture view over the next decade

58:23 - Advice for new investors

59:37 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI256: Investor Behaviour & the How to Deal with Transaction Costs ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 12 Aug 2023 09:00:00 +0100

Mark Rzepczynski is back to tackle some important topics relating to systematic trading. We discuss whether there is a best time of the year to trade and what has been driving the markets recently, how high interest rates and uncertainty affect investor behaviour, dispersion within markets and how it influences your trend following return. We also discuss quant research, the motivated reasoning bias and the importance of being open minded as a researcher to find better ways of being a trend follower, ways of dealing with transaction costs when building models, optimal ways of performing backtests and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:38 - Is there a best time to trade?

05:07 - What has caught Mark's attention recently?

08:36 - Industry performance update

10:01 - Will we see a change in investor behaviour?

17:04 - The benefit of cash

21:11 - Are guaranteed products making a comeback?

26:18 - The dispersion within markets

32:05 - The Ex ante and Ex post problem for quant research

39:23 - Stay open minded

43:46 - Dealing with transaction costs

56:53 - The road to robust models

01:00:37 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL19: Revolutionary Technology & the Coming Economic Boom ft. Mark P. Mills

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 07:00:00 +0100

Mark Mills joins us to discuss his new book The Cloud Revolution: How The Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020’s. Mark is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute, a faculty fellow at Northwestern’s engineering school and a strategic partner in energy-tech venture fund Montrose Lane. In our conversation Mark explains how advances on three fronts - information, machines and materials - are converging in a way that is going to propel a surge in economic growth and productivity.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Mark on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:12 - Introduction to Mark Mills and his book

10:00 - What is meant by "the cloud"?

15:46 - The Cloud Revolution

21:44 - Collecting data with AI

28:10 - What is computational material and how is it used?

36:05 - Designing material with AI

40:08 - Getting more out of technology

48:43 - Working with robots

52:21 - Increasing productivity in health care

57:55 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI255: A Treasury Tsunami & Slow Burning Minsky Moments ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 05 Aug 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Today, I'm joined by Alan Dunne to discuss the ‘treasury tsunami’ and the current challenges that the economy faces, the state of the Japanese and Chinese economy and the fear of ‘Japanification’, what is a reasonable return expectation for the different asset classes and why you should allocate to trend following despite the scepticism surrounding it. We also discuss how we are witnessing a slow burning Minsky moment in terms of debt and the refinancing risks that will emerge in the coming years, why meaningful allocation to markets is more important than allocating to too many markets and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:30 - What's been on Alan's radar in recent weeks?

03:54 - The big macro picture

12:26 - A treasury tsunami is coming

17:29 - Why has the economy stayed strong?

21:13 - A fear of Japanification

26:28 - Industry performance update

28:39 - A period of dispersion

33:36 - Calculating the return expectations

41:26 - Don't sleep on trend following

47:47 - Slow burning Minsky moments

55:22 - A conversation with Christopher Zook

01:01:18 - Charlie Munger article about diversification

01:08:34 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL04: Expanding Your Consciousness and Reality ft. Mark Gober

Wed, 02 Aug 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Do you ever have that feeling someone is staring at you? You turn around and find someone looking at you. What causes that? We get the answer in this episode of our Galactic Macro series as we sit down with Mark Gober, author, and board director at Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell’s Institute of Noetic Sciences. Mark explains to us the science behind extra sensory perception, near death experiences, UAP and then shows the one thing they all have in common - consciousness, the ultimate technology. You won’t want to miss this fascinating conversation where we explore these new frontiers.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:36 - Introduction to Mark Gober

07:13 - Constructing a new reality

11:18 - Mark's journey with libertarianism

17:55 - Understanding consciousness

23:33 - Near death experiences and the science behind

27:14 - The shared death experiences

28:51 - What is terminal lucidity?

31:50 - The role of psychic abilities

38:42 - The road to studying UFOs

44:05 - UAP encounters are nothing new

49:23 - The Rendlesham Forest case

52:33 - Where is this all going?

56:55 - Who is Robert Bigelow?

01:00:45 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU145: All In on Trend Following ft. Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital

Mon, 31 Jul 2023 23:45:00 +0100

Jerry Parker, Founder of Chesapeake Capital is perhaps the most successful of the famous group of Turtles, and today we discuss what he has learned from his 40+ years love affair with Trend Following, and how he has evolved his CTA program. We debate the challenges of using the Sharpe Ratio and what improvement really look like, how he uses volatility in his trend following process and the conflicts that can arise when working with clients. We also find out why Jerry believes you can be a good manager without using stops even if this is not how he does it, why he believes in trend following plus nothing, why he felt he had no choice than to launch an ETF with that name and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Chesapeake Capital.

Episode Timestamps:

02:58 - Introduction to Chesapeake Capital

07:02 - Jerry's key trend following learnings

12:54 - Jerry's investment philosophy

17:02 - Being evolutionary without too much tinkering

22:09 - Advice on running a trend following program

26:48 - Their process for selecting parameters

32:15 - What does an improvement look like...if not a higher Sharpe?

39:25 - The role of volatility in the trend following process

44:41 - The challenges of working with clients

48:51 - What if everyone was a trend follower?

54:21 - Can you be a good manager without using stops?

57:05 - Why are the other firms "wrong"?

01:04:33 - Trend following disagreements

01:06:42 - Excitements for the future

01:08:23 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI254: Does Trend Following Single Stocks Make Sense? ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 29 Jul 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Nick Baltas returns to discuss single stock trend momentum dynamics and more. With his usual academic elegance, Nick dives into Portfolio Construction and Risk Management, Static vs. Dynamic positioning, how to apply each type in your trading, and why one is not “better” than the other, the key factors of portfolio construction and why the difference between cross-sectional and time-series momentum is important to understand. We also discuss trend following in single stocks and why it is a complicated matter, single stock factors trend as well CTA strategies inside ETF wrappers...the pros and cons and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:36 - What has caught Nick's attention recently?

06:28 - Industry performance update

07:28 - Dynamic vs. Static positioning

17:54 - Is one better than the other?

22:35 - The objective of Dynamic positioning

29:35 - Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Momentum: What Is the Difference?

43:57 - AQR paper on single stock factor trend

50:17 - CTA strategies inside and ETF wrapper...a good idea?

01:00:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO15: Exploring Today's Investment Opportunities ft. Christopher Zook

Wed, 26 Jul 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Christopher Zook, Founder, Chairman and CIO of CAZ Investments joins us for fascinating and thought-provoking conversation on the outlook for the economy and the investment opportunities in current markets. Christopher explains why he thinks the risk-reward is so poor in public equity markets at the moment and why investors are being offered poor prospective returns for the risk. We discuss private markets and the areas where CAZ is focused on allocating capital, particularly sports franchises and GP stakes. We also discuss some of the potential challenges in private markets as consumer and real estate debt is refinanced in the coming years. We delve into what Christopher and his team look for when selecting managers and partners, and the questions they ask to help unearth the next thematic opportunity. We wrap up by discussing the big influences on Christopher’s career and his key learnings from over three decades in the industry.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Christopher on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:51 - Introduction to Christopher Zook

05:11 - Zook's current view on the markets and economy

09:06 - The outlook for real estate

12:48 - Stagflation and the impact of AI

16:29 - Parallels to the .com bubble?

18:45 - Options trading - a key driver of short term

21:35 - Building portfolios for the current environment

25:44 - Inflation, stocks and pricing power

28:14 - Opportunities in markets

30:50 - Investing in sports teams

38:54 - GP stakes and the asset management industry

45:40 - Bad actors in the industry

49:44 - 50 shades of risk

54:25 - Finding the right people to work with

57:40 - Lessons learned

59:17 - Finding the next big thing

01:02:49 - Working with Tony Robbins

01:04:30 - Advice for new investors

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI253: A New Trend Following ETF is Born ft. Andrew Beer & Jerry Parker

Sat, 22 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Jerry Parker for a fascinating conversation about the different approches to trend following within the ETF landscape. We discuss what the role trend following should play in a portfolio, the best approach to staying diversified, and where the growth might come from in the ETF space. We also discuss a few more controversial topics like fees, and why Jerry view trend following and managed futures as 2 different things and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:44 - What's been on Andrew's and Jerry's radar lately?

04:38 - Industry performance update

05:43 - Lessons learned from launching Trend Following Plus Nothing

10:21 - What should the role of Trend Following be?

13:45 - New ETFs - where will the growth come from?

16:35 - The best approach to trading markets

23:37 - Staying balanced with single stocks

27:54 - Biases in Jerry's trading

30:11 - Will Jerry's correlation to equities begin to increase?

33:59 - Q1, Oliver: Why pay Jerry higher fees for being long equities?

40:02 - Will large hedge funds bring ETFs to markets?

44:08 - Are we in a hedge fund CTA fee bubble?

46:59 - Jerrys take on performance fees

52:24 - Andrew's take on performance fees

54:26 - Trend Following vs Managed Futures - 2 different things?

01:08:52 - Tax efficiency in ETFs

01:12:24 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL03: Global Conflicts and the Trajectory of Humanity ft. Dr. Paul Sullivan

Wed, 19 Jul 2023 07:00:00 +0100

When it comes to global conflict and understanding the limits of Earth's resources the man to turn to is Dr. Paul Sullivan. Paul is a seasoned professor that has taught at several of the world's leading universities and influenced the thinking of students that are now some of the DOD's top brass as well as world leaders. His depth of understanding and commitment to a lifetime of learning is uncommon in a world of short attention spans. We sit with Paul in this conversation to understand his current view of global conflicts and the trajectory that humanity finds itself on. Join us as we gain new understandings into the corners of geopolitics, the realities of a clean energy transition, building new leaders, and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Paul on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:43 - Introduction to Dr. Paul Sullivan

13:58 - The current state of Syria

18:34 - Understanding the Middle East conflicts

24:33 - Where is the US most vulnerable?

27:13 - The challenges that China is facing

29:33 - Why is the US supporting the one China policy?

32:04 - Resources and conflicts - what are we missing?

35:31 - What to do if you want to make a difference

44:14 - Reaching breakthroughs in physics

50:57 - The risk of complex technology

56:05 - How do we prepare our children to become great leaders?

01:03:07 - Expanding our intuition

01:07:58 - Hopes for the future and book recommendations

01:16:32 - Thanks for listening

01:17:01 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI252: From Crypto Sceptic to Crypto Adviser ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 15 Jul 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver joins me to reveal some surprising news about his new “job”. We discuss portfolio optimization and why you should be concerned about certain types optimization techniques, why Rob believes trend following a trend following ETF is a bad idea, when is the best time to buy trend followers and how to use factors when applying an exponential moving average. We also discuss safe trading and how to achieve the most diversification for your portfolio, the dodgy behaviour that exists in the crypto space and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:15 - Update of the week

07:50 - Industry performance update

10:49 - Q1, Scott: Should i be concerned about adjusting portfolio weights according to the backtested sharpe ratio of my system?

18:52 - Q2.1, Andrew: Is trend following the trend following ETFs a good idea?

28:16 - Q2.2, Andrew: What is the advantage of factors of 4?

34:13 - Q2.3, Andrew: About using free backtesting systems

40:46 - Rob becoming a crypto adviser...what!

45:12 - Trading safely

52:22 - Dodgy behaviour in the crypto space

57:37 - Paper: A different point of skew

01:05:04 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL18: We Need to Talk About Inflation ft. Stephen King

Wed, 12 Jul 2023 15:00:00 +0100

HSBC Senior Economic Adviser Stephen King joins the show to discuss the most important long-term issue facing western economies: inflation. Stephen’s new book - We Need To Talk About Inflation - is an FT “book to read in 2023” for good reasons. He explains why inflation is not just about money creation, it also depends on public perceptions and the fatal temptation of governments to usurp central bank independence (what he calls the Richard Burton - Elizabeth Taylor rule). Stephen explains how to evaluate future inflation risks through his “4 Inflationary Tests” and we talk through how the US and Europe currently measure up.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:05 - Introduction to Stephen King and his book

09:00 - The relationship between public behaviour and the supply of money

13:21 - Can it be deflationary?

17:12 - The Taylor Burton effect

30:29 - The unfairness of inflation

37:46 - Has the impact of inflation become worse over time?

46:26 - Institutional changes and inflation bias

51:04 - Is the radar still switched off?

52:49 - A collapse in money supply?

55:50 - Are central banks acting too slow?

58:31 - The current state of supply conditions

01:02:26 - The relationsship between demographics and inflation

01:05:57 - Building the ideal Fed

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI251: A Deep Dive Into Models and Systems ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 08 Jul 2023 20:00:00 +0100

Richard Brennan returns for a true trend following conversation where we dive deep into the construction of models and systems. We discuss why long-term trading are often preferred by many trend followers and what we can learn from acoustics and physics in terms of noise and signals, how to get the most diversification from highly correlated markets through system design and why you should trade with an ensemble of markets. We also discuss how complex adaptive systems evolve over time, how to understand transitions events and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - An update on the Australian economy

02:50 - A global macro perspective

05:38 - Industry performance update

08:39 - A bias towards long term models?

20:28 - Emergent structures and the butterfly effect

25:08 - Something is happening at the South Pole

26:01 - Getting diversification out of highly correlated markets

39:23 - Understanding complex adaptive systems

54:05 - The stability of markets

57:17 - Applying different rules to different markets

01:00:32 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM46: An Emerging Market Boom of Epic Proportion ft. Louis-Vincent Gave

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 10:00:00 +0100

Today we are joined by Louis-Vincent Gave of Gavekal Research for a fascinating discussion on the key global macro trends impacting markets. Louis outlines his case for why the consensus is wrong to expect a US recession and why he sees accommodative US fiscal policy as a key driver of the economy in the next 1-2 years. We discuss the upside and downside risks to inflation and how weather patterns may be an underappreciated risk to inflation in the next 1-2 years. One of Louis’ key calls is an upbeat outlook on emerging markets, particularly in the middle East and Asia. The recent peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a key element of this, while the structural trend of de-dollarization and emerging economies increasingly selling goods in their own currency are other elements. We wrap up with an assessment of AI and the economic implications in the medium term.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Louis on Twitter .

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Louis Vincent Gave

05:28 - Is the economy starting to crack?

10:40 - When is the recession coming?

13:13 - The outlook for inflation

18:36 - The problem with designification

21:18 - The challenges of Chinese economy

27:56 - Can the Japanese economic situation be compared to China?

31:31 - Looking beyond the U.S and China

36:12 - An epic boom in emerging markets

40:20 - The structural growth in China

43:28 - Middle East joining forces

46:53 - Dealing with the debt

50:43 - Inverted yield curve and the bond market

54:09 - How will AI affect the economy?

59:22 - Good advice and book recommendations

01:02:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI250: Tour de Volatility ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 01 Jul 2023 13:00:00 +0100

Cem Karsan joins me for a tour of the current volatility and macro environment, where we take a deep dive into where markets and economy are heading. We discuss the potential of the economy going into stagflation and why many investors might not be prepared for what is to come, the unpredictable volatility environment and how technology like AI is affecting markets. We also discuss the potential dangers of zero day options and how to position yourself appropriately for the markets, how to prepare for the upcoming summer holidays and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:45 - The global macro perspective

03:07 - Industry performance update

04:48 - Reviewing the first half of the year

09:14 - A deep dive into markets

24:37 - Preparing for a major blowup

39:24 - Zero day options - a loaded gun?

45:36 - Best Ever 1st half for NASDAQ

48:27 - Preparing for summer holidays

53:35 - Are CTAs and trend followers are pushing the markets higher?

56:43 - Advice when heading into holidays

58:33 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL02: The Blind Spot of AI & UAPs ft. Izabella Kaminska & Dario Garcia Garner

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 15:00:00 +0100

There are few instincts sharper than those of a talented journalist. Izabella Kaminska, founder and editor of The Blind Spot, and her colleague Dario Garcia Giner have those instincts in spades. While still at the Financial Times, on December 10, 2021, Izabella penned a thought provoking article titled Do portfolios have a UAP risk?. Long before anyone was talking about UAP in the financial sector Izabella recognized that this taboo subject could impact markets and was worth paying attention to. That article led to research analyst Dario Garcia Giner reaching out and joining Izabella at The Blind Spot where they continue their work uncovering interesting and important corners of markets that remain overlooked. Listen in as we discuss with Izabella and Dario their perspectives on UAP, geopolitics, and the complexity of understanding and managing risk in a sci-fi like world.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Izabella on Twitter.

Follow The Blind Spot.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:33 - What have UAPs even to do with finance?

09:26 - When will UAPs become a common risk disclosure?

15:59 - Who is Ryan Graves and why is he important?

19:15 - Their reaction to Politico article by Chris Mellon

26:20 - Classified information, lacking coverage and the Havana Syndrome

32:03 - A potential for geopolitical conflict

39:13 - The biggest underpriced risk in global markets

44:43 - Conspiracy theories and the weird factor

51:55 - Mass fragmentation and loss of trust in media

01:00:32 - What is happening at the South Pole?

01:06:56 - Inspiration and book recommendations

01:12:00 - Thanks for listening

01:12:39 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI249: Unfulfilled Expectations in 1st Half of 2023 ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 24 Jun 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky joins me to discuss momentum gap and why momentum is a core component of all markets, the concept of "stretch" and when to enter and exit trades at the right time, dislocations in markets and how AI may or may not affect the trend following space. We then review all the things we were "promised" would happen in the first half of 2023...but did not! And to round things off, we dive into what causes models to fail and why there are many ways to interpret the success of a model, the challenge of predicting markets and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:03 - What happened this week?

03:48 - Industry performance update

05:21 - Article on momentum gap

16:46 - Getting the entry and exit right

23:25 - What did not happen this year?

32:02 - AI and trend following

35:48 - Advice on using AI and machine learning

42:59 - Failure of models

52:19 - The challenge of evaluating models

56:28 - Being macro aware

01:00:35 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GAL01: Galactic Macro...The New Investment Frontier ft. Jay Anderson

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 11:00:00 +0100

2023 is a year for the record books as world changing technologies such as AI once believed to be science fiction become science fact. The most exotic technologies, however, are thought to be related to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomenon and may also have an AI connection. At the vanguard of the new generation of UAP researchers is Jay Anderson. He kicks off our Galactic Macro series with David Dorr as they discuss the breathtaking disclosures coming out of the U.S. Pentagon and connect the dots to unraveling a mystery that may be as old as humanity itself. What will be revealed in the new physics displayed by UAP and documented by the world's best military signal intelligence systems? Has the U.S., Russia, China or anyone else made breakthroughs in physics that are not yet publicly known? Are we alone? The implications of what we discuss not only could impact every aspect of financial markets, they could impact every aspect of how we view our place in the universe.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow David on Twitter.

Follow Jay and Project Unity on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 - Introduction to Jay Andersen and Project Unity

08:50 - The tipping point

20:51 - An ever-changing phenomenon

29:29 - Increasing encounters - why now?

37:41 - The importance of Wright-Patterson Air Force Base

42:25 - Evolving into a new human species

50:12 - Staying well prepared for new technology

55:30 - The Global Event Rating Algorithm

58:33 - An acclimation process

01:08:56 - How did Jay get into the UFO subject?

01:14:17 - Final thoughts?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI248: Trend Following, AI & Mastering Risk Management ft. Alan Dunne

Sat, 17 Jun 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Alan Dunne returns to the show following a busy week of Fed action and economic activity. We discuss how technology like artificial intelligence impacts the economy and investors, both currently and in the future, the use of machine learning trend following and why it is important to be aware of your own biases. We also discuss what constitutes good risk management and why risk management is key to any successful investor, the evolution of risk management and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:58 - The big macro picture

13:25 - Industry performance update

16:33 - Artificial Intelligence - friend or foe?

28:00 - Using AI in trend following

32:40 - Katy Kaminski paper on bonds

39:36 - Being aware of your own biases

44:49 - Quantica paper on protection and returns

48:35 - Transtrend paper - volatility vs. drawdowns

53:24 - Risk management - the secret sauce?

57:28 - The evolution of risk management

01:03:24 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM45: A Geopolitical Mosh Pit ft. Michael Kao

Wed, 14 Jun 2023 07:00:00 +0100

As has become clear in the past couple of years, the interconnection between Macro Economics and Geo-Politics is stronger today than ever before in our lifetime. And who better to explain this mosh pit than the Ubankaoboy himself, Michael Kao who joins me and Cem Karsan for a fascinating and wide ranging conversation. We cover topics like China's debt problem, Oil and the mistakes the US are making as we speak, OPEC+ as well has hear Michael, who's parents fled from China to Taiwan, describe an potentially "explosive" scenario in which China may well be united with Taiwan that he is hearing from one of his "Uncles" still living in Taiwan.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Michael on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:29 - The big macro picture

14:09 - The debt problem in China

20:39 - The fragility of China and the Taiwan conflict

24:57 - Kao's view on supply and demand

31:17 - How does Fed power affect oil?

38:41 - A complicated dynamic

41:54 - Can we actually trust anyone?

45:29 - The shadow banking system and refinancing risk

48:53 - A structural problem

51:59 - Reimagining safe assets

58:27 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI247: What is Smart Diversification? ft. Nick Baltas

Sat, 10 Jun 2023 02:00:00 +0100

Today, Nick Baltas return to the show for a look at some recent published research papers by our friends over at Quantica and AQR. Despite our technical difficulties with my audio and notes...we discuss the timing and speed of executing trades and the pros and cons of trend following compared to stocks and bonds, how to achieve the best protection whilst maximizing returns during times of trouble in equities or higher interest rates and why short term strategies does not necessarily give you better protection, nor better returns. We also discuss the similarities and differences between trend following and economic trend and the importance of luck, why you get what you pay for in terms of manager performance and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:10 - What happened this week?

03:24 - Industry performance update

05:07 - Q1, David: About the speed of execution

10:43 - Q2, Oliver: Trend following vs. stocks and bonds

16:08 - A discussion on smart diversification

22:21 - Shorter term strategies = more protection?

25:22 - The role of lookback

29:07 - Paper on economic trend

36:16 - Trend following vs. economic trend

45:18 - Withstanding the pain of long term trend following

54:16 - Capping equity exposure

56:08 - Is fee reduction alpha?

01:02:01 - Does CTA replication models = single manager risk?

01:04:04 - The problems with managed futures indexes

01:07:54 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM44: Insights From Inside Credit Suisse ft. Mika Kastenholz

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 09:00:00 +0100

Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Hari on Twitter.

Follow Mika on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz

09:25 - Working with econophysics

10:52 - Finding the perfect size

12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing

13:19 - The macro perspective

16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve

18:46 - A changing environment

21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations

23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures

29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage

31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?

33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?

35:31 - How does cross margining work today?

36:51 - What happens with a large client trade?

38:59 - Dealing with regulations

42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?

45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits?

48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects?

50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated?

54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited?

57:06 - A confused market

59:19 - The outlook for the term premia

01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI246: The BIG CTA ETF Debate ft. Andrew Beer & Tim Pickering

Sat, 03 Jun 2023 10:00:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Andrew Beer and Tim Pickering for a heated debate on some of the most important changes that we are seeing in the CTA industry. We discuss how ETFs can be used in the CTA industry and the pros and cons of using indices to represent manager performance, why Tim and Andrew are fundamentally different in how they approach the way retail investors can access CTA strategies and how they disagree on the definition of "pure alpha", the use of replication strategies and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:50 - The macro perspective

03:56 - Industry performance update

06:17 - First CTA to launch a ETF

09:57 - The managed futures index - what and why?

17:40 - Tim's experience with indices

20:15 - Building an asset allocation bucket

22:36 - A discussion on alpha

30:58 - Getting exposure to CTA return streams

37:10 - Why Tim would avoid replication strategies

44:18 - The biggest positions drive performance?

51:45 - Are ETFs reliable?

55:47 - Getting the timing right

01:00:49 - A terrible product?

01:04:26 - Why did Tim's US ETF fail?

01:08:07 - What is alpha?

01:11:00 - Are lower fees better for investors?

01:12:14 - Getting the correlation right

01:13:21 - Question from Oliver

01:15:59 - Teasing the next debate

01:22:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

ALO14: Investing for a Decade of Dispersion ft. Clint Stone

Wed, 31 May 2023 08:00:00 +0100

Today we are joined by Clint Stone SVP of Investments at the Larry H Miller Company to hear about running an endowment style investment approach at a family office. We discuss Clint’s approach to asset allocation which is focused on long term capital appreciation. A key pillar of the portfolio is a large allocation to private markets and we discuss the rationals for this. We delve into the foundation’s approach to portfolio construction, how to estimate the volatility of private markets exposures and discuss Clint’s belief that the volatility of a private market portfolio may even be lower than a corresponding public market portfolio. We also talk about the challenge of manager selection, what Clint looks for in managers and why he likes both market neutral long/short equity strategies and directional strategies like global macro and trend following in his absolute return portfolio.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Clint on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:48 - Introduction to Clint Stone

07:07 - Their approach to investment

12:12 - A challenging decade for equities?

15:06 - Stone's perspective on equity valuations

18:32 - Building a model and strategy

23:04 - Modelling the risk of a private equity portfolio

30:52 - Getting the correlation right

34:14 - Correlation in economic downturns

39:04 - Building a multi-asset strategy

41:11 - Getting the speed right

44:39 - Stone's approach to trend following

46:34 - Evaluating managers vs. security analysis

49:05 - The search for capacity constraints

52:02 - The challenge of picking managers

53:41 - Working with real businesses

57:52 - What is a good investment process?

01:03:01 - Generalists vs. specialists

01:06:50 - Advice for new allocators

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI245: Which CTA Should You Buy ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 27 May 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Rob Carver is back to discuss the economic unpredictability that has defined this year so far and how Rob approaches backtesting his system, how to make a signal continuous in a discrete system and if there are ways to figuring out when is the right time to trend follow. We also unpack what Rob means by “you can’t eat sharpe ratio” and what he would change in his strategy if he had more resources available. We then turn to discuss the CTA industry and how to find out which CTA you should buy, why Niels is skeptical about predicting the performance of a strategy and why you need to know what you don’t know, the absurdity of the debt ceiling and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:52 - Update from Rob

07:13 - Calculating slippage and "midprice"

12:41 - Industry performance update

15:26 - Q1, David: About continuous trading signal construction

20:49 - Hidden Markov models - What and why?

27:34 - Q2.1, Elie: Is there value in relative vol targeting for traders who can't take on leverage?

32:37 - Q2.2, Elie: About alternative ways of rebalancing signals

37:49 - Q3, QuantLurk: What would more resources do to your strategies?

42:41 - Which CTA should you buy?

49:12 - Can you really predict the performance of a strategy?

56:08 - You need to know what you don't know

58:36 - The U.S debt ceiling

01:03:09 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM43: On the Verge of Recession ft. David Rosenberg

Wed, 24 May 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research as we discuss the global macro outlook and why David believes the US economy is on the verge of recession. We examine the parallels between the current economic cycle and past cycles, particularly the 1920s and 1970s, and discuss how past Fed tightening cycles have played out for the economy and asset prices. David lays out his case for why he is sceptical of the narrative that inflation will remain sticky and outlines the key indicators he is monitoring that suggest that the US economy will soon be in recession. We discuss debt, demographics and deglobalization and whether these will inflationary or disinflationary forces over the coming decade.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow David on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:23 - Introduction to David Rosenberg

08:00 - Rosenberg's research process

11:56 - The importance of historical awareness

25:00 - Disruptions in the demand curve

31:16 - Getting the timing right

43:54 - The longer term trajectory

52:58 - Dealing with high debt levels

57:12 - A shift in the political landscape

01:00:56 - Learning more about global macro

01:05:02 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU144: Turtle Trading 2.0? ft. Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors

Mon, 22 May 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us as we sit down with Brian Proctor, Managing Director at EMC Capital Advisors, for an insightful conversation on the evolution of their trading methodology since the early days of the Turtle Program. Discover what sets them apart from competitors and the key factors they believe contribute to a successful CTA. Explore their use of algorithms to balance risk in a volatile market and how trading systems can adapt while staying true to their origins. Gain insights into their approach to managing current market volatility, distinguishing between trend following and momentum, building reliable systems, expanding their market portfolio, and much more. Don't miss this engaging discussion!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about EMC Capital Advisors.

Episode Timestamps:

02:19 - Introduction to EMC Capital Advisors

07:30 - Their investment philosophy

10:30 - What differentiates them from their peers?

12:33 - The key to succes

14:06 - Their approach to open equity

17:22 - Staying true to trend following

20:13 - Improving the risk adjusted profile

23:15 - An evolving system

28:19 - Slow or fast?

30:44 - Being aware of volatility

32:44 - Trend following vs. momentum

37:19 - "The technical logic of the system"

40:05 - An adaptive process

43:58 - How they reach their goals

45:46 - Pros and cons of adding more markets

50:11 - How they manage risk

57:23 - How have markets changed over time?

01:00:03 - Trend following disagreements

01:03:53 - What is he excited for this year?

01:06:30 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI244: Trend Following - How to Hunt them & Select a Manager ft. Richard Brennan

Sat, 20 May 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Richard Brennan returns to discuss the idea of applying trend following on a shorter term time frame and why this might not make sense, the most optimal solutions for selecting managers, how to best avoid selection bias in the process and why the validated track record of a fund manager is so important. We also discuss how the analogy of hunting on the savana can be applied to trend following and what a cheetah and a spider can teach us about hunting trends and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Changes in the podcast format

01:30 - Review of the week

05:03 - Q1, Zach: Regarding the viability of short-term systems

12:48 - A deep dive into manager selection

28:37 - The optimal process and results

30:58 - Diversification in manager selection

33:51 - Hunting the trends

46:29 - The Knowledge Project

55:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM42: What's Coming for Oil, Gas, Gold & Metals ft. Adam Rozencwajg

Wed, 17 May 2023 15:00:00 +0100

If you're curious about the state of natural resources in today's market, this episode is for you. Our guest Adam Rozencwajg shares his insights on a wide range of topics when it comes to the global commodity markets. Discover why oil is struggling to surpass $80 despite the OIL Put, OPEC's surprise production cuts, and China's reopening. We also explore why US and European Nat Gas prices have yet to converge, and the outlook for Gold as it sits close to all-time highs. Finally, we discuss the future of base metals and what we can expect in the coming months. Don't miss out on this engaging episode!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - What has happened since our previous conversation?

06:03 - Making sense of the oil market

10:44 - Signs of a put on the oil market

16:38 - The situation with natural gas

25:13 - Has the gas situation been improved?

32:42 - Nuclear energy - is it a viable solution?

46:51 - The outlook for gold

52:51 - The mechanisms of the capital cycles

01:00:45 - The state of metals

01:04:18 - A metal crisis?

01:06:24 - Centralised commodities and rare earths

01:09:53 - Investing in rare earths

01:12:52 - Considerations for owning gold

01:16:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI243: Sell in May and Go Away...Really ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 13 May 2023 11:00:00 +0100

Join us for a conversation with Cem Karsan, where we discuss the likelihood of the US economy going into stagflation and how we are at an interesting inflection point in terms of market risk as we head into the summer. We also get into how panic is akin to death in positioning and how artificial intelligence may affect us as investors. And finally we dig into Cem’s outlook for earnings and price and how passive investing can become uninvestable, things that would make Cem change his bearish view on the economy and markets, the underlying problems of debt in society and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:33 - What happened this week?

06:56 - Industry performance update

08:38 - An interesting inflection point

16:29 - The timing of tops vs. bottoms

21:25 - Why are people short today?

25:57 - How will AI affect the middle and upper class?

30:56 - Where are we at in the cycle?

36:11 - Karsan's outlook for earnings

39:25 - Passive vs. Active investing

44:25 - Expectations for OPEX in May

49:18 - What could change Karsan's bearish view?

52:22 - The debt problem

01:01:09 - A society in decline

01:03:46 - Thoughts on Gold

01:05:42 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL17: The Dangers to Democracy ft. Martin Wolf

Wed, 10 May 2023 07:00:00 +0100

This episode features a discussion with Martin Wolf, the FT’s Chief Economics Commentator and “the world’s preeminent financial journalist”. Wolf’s new book The Crisis of Democratic Capitalism explains why the marriage between democracy and capitalism is breaking down, not from external threats but from within. He expands on these internal threats during our conversation, which he believes have the potential to end US democracy in the coming years and in his book he outlines a range of critical reforms we can undertake to avoid this fate. You won't want to miss this thought-provoking conversation.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Martin on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:23 - Introduction to Martin Wolf

07:45 - Why do capitalism and democracy go so well together?

14:46 - The conflicts between capitalism and democracy

18:43 - Is the risk to democracy global?

23:15 - A changed view after the election?

27:29 - Making process in a divided country

35:00 - A sign of desperation

36:58 - Success takes small steps?

44:35 - The importance of local democracies

50:58 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI242: How to Detect when the Trend Changes ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sat, 06 May 2023 20:00:00 +0100

Today I'm joined by Mark Rzepczynsky following the quarterly meeting of the TBAC in a week where the FED also raised interest rates. We discuss the concept of inertia and how it can be applied to economics and markets, why it is important to have macro awareness whilst being concious of the level of complexity to ensure your model remains robust. We also discuss the idea of "warner vs. warnee" in a crisis situation and how it can cause inefficiency and dislocations in markets, how to respond to economic warnings, the importance of capturing non-linearity in markets and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

01:55 - A big week for Chairman Powell?

10:59 - Industry performance update

14:07 - Global macro meets trend following?

19:52 - The spectrum of behaviour

25:47 - Balancing complexity and robustness

30:51 - Being aware of unexpected events in markets

34:31 - It takes two to crisis

39:06 - Are we approaching a de-dollarization?

41:56 - Is price all we need?

50:55 - Why do we need machine learning?

56:39 - Words of estimative probability

01:00:35 - Put the money where your mouth is

01:02:58 - Skew in trend following

01:05:38 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM41: Global Macro Face Off ft. Cem Karsan & Alfonso Peccatiello

Wed, 03 May 2023 09:00:00 +0100

If you liked last week’s Global Macro conversation with Cem Karsan you are going to LOVE this epic Macro debate as he and Alfonso Peccatiello, aka MacroAlf, go head to head on the most pressing topics of our time. From inflation and interest rates to De-Dollarization, China, Geo-Politics, Oil, Gold, and more, these two brilliant macro thinkers challenge each other's perspectives in a thought-provoking and engaging conversation. Despite their differences, they also find some common ground. Don't miss this electrifying episode!

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Alfonso on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:37 - The big macro picture

04:37 - Inflation from a historical perspective

14:22 - Cycles and trends - how are they different?

18:23 - A sticky situation

21:53 - A wealth of trades?

26:58 - A secular reality

29:17 - The banking situation

35:16 - A build-up effect

38:58 - Buying Puts - A way to lose money?

41:02 - Cyclical vs Secular effects

46:38 - Inflationary pressure in Japan

54:45 - De-Dollarization and changes on the global stage

01:08:14 - The advantage of commodities

01:13:41 - Where is the world heading?

01:17:57 - Final thoughts

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI241: Trend Following...The Perfect Risk Mitigation Strategy ft. Alan Dunne

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 05:30:00 +0100

Alan Dunne returns to the show for a weekly conversation on Trend Following, where we reflect on the current global macro environment and the challenges that markets are facing at the moment. We discuss how to approach the percentage allocation to Trend Following when reaching retirement age and the current drawdowns that we see in the trend space, how to use risk mitigation strategies to create a more robust portfolio and how pension funds might end up filling the entire trend following space. We also discuss how Alan would go about constructing an alternative investment portfolio, the outlook for trend following and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:32 - Broad macro observations

10:21 - Consumer confidence and political obstacles

14:44 - Looking towards China

18:53 - Trend following update

24:38 - Q1, Lawrence: What to do when approaching retirement drawdown?

29:53 - Q2, Lawrence: How can smaller investors benefit from allocating to CTAs

31:31 - A trend following rollercoaster

36:33 - Using risk mitigation strategies

45:52 - Risk mitigation in pension funds

50:57 - How to build an Alternative Portfolio?

01:00:06 - What does the future holds for trend following?

01:04:51 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM40: The Risk of Volatility Exploding...Soon ft. Cem Karsan

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 12:00:00 +0100

Join us for an enlightening conversation with Cem Karsan, where we dive deep into the state of the volatility markets and the risks that come with the current low volatility environment. We explore the lagging effects of FED actions and their impact on the markets, as well as the potential impact of inflation, the upcoming US election season, and the current US debt ceiling situation. Get ready for a thought-provoking discussion on the current state of the markets and the challenges facing investors today.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:08 - The big picture macro view

08:27 - Fed selling Puts and Calls

12:54 - The lag effect

20:31 - The impact of change in demographics

29:49 - The state of the markets - Recession inbound?

38:47 - Sticky CPI - What is causing it?

46:12 - Is the FED causing uneccesary downturn?

49:41 - Are we looking at the right Asset Class?

52:26 - Is the equity rally about to end?

54:24 - The Unpinning of Volatility

57:40 - The coming Explosion of Volatility

01:01:44 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI240: Trend Following... More Than Just Vol Scaling? ft. Nick Baltas

Sun, 23 Apr 2023 08:00:00 +0100

Join us for a compelling conversation with Nick Baltas on the topic of trend following, where we explore the rising appetite for institutions to buy-the-dip in fixed income markets and how the SVB event has impacted liquidity. Discover if you can time trend following by adding additional signals to your model, the academic sceptisism of timeseries momentum as a strategy and why trend following goes beyond volatility scaling. We also delve into the scientific versus practical approach to trend following, and compare narratives of different investment approaches and how we may have to come up with a better one for trend following. Don't miss out on this insightful episode!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Looking back on the week

13:19 - Reflecting on the CTA series

19:23 - The impact of the SVB event

23:02 - Industry performance update

24:39 - Q1, Tim: Regarding backtest and timing trends

35:08 - Two Critical Views on Trend Following

40:15 - Time-series momentum: Is it there?

43:28 - Defending trend following

54:01 - The Role of Volatility...and what it predicts

57:06 - The trend following narrative

01:06:05 - Paper from Aspect Capital

01:09:34 - Thanks for listening

Resources discussed in this Episode:

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL16: False Narratives - A Path to a World of Conflict ft. Stephen Roach

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Get ready for a thought-provoking conversation with Stephen Roach, former Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley and current Senior Fellow at Yale’s Paul Tsai China Center, as he delves into the deteriorating relationship between China and the US. With his new book "Accidental Conflict: America, China and the Clash of False Narratives", Stephen unravels the narratives that led to this new Cold War and provides a clear path towards interdependency and healthier economies. With his unique perspective and ability to reach policy makers on both sides, Stephen gives us an insight into the complexity of this relationship and how it can be mended. Don't miss out on this insightful discussion.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Stephen on Twitter & Read his Book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:38 - Introduction to Stephen Roach

07:37 - Why are false narratives so prevalent?

12:52 - Stephen's favorite false narrative

17:07 - A dangerous narrative

22:02 - A political backstep?

28:00 - A lack of telecom infrastructure

29:58 - The false narratives of China

40:47 - The fear of containment

45:27 - Potential ways forward

49:15 - The bilateral investment treaty

55:54 - How has Stephen's ideas been received?

57:56 - Thanks for listening

59:13 - Key takeaways from Niels

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU143: How to stay Sharpe ft. Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management

Mon, 17 Apr 2023 07:30:00 +0100

Guillaume Jamet, Co-CIO at Metori Capital Management joins us for a conversation on how pivoting to a rigorous scientific approach uncovered ways of better capturing trends in markets. We discuss his "alternative" view on Sharpe and why being a trend following CTA is not as easy as it might seem and how they break down conventional rules in markets to fix what is not working. We also uncover how Guillaume would approach manager selection if he was on the other side of the table and the pros and cons of trading alternative markets in China, how they make investors embrace trend following in their portfolio and much more.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Metori Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:17 - Introduction to Metori Capital Management

04:08 - Their investment philosophy

09:47 - An alternative view on Sharpe

18:44 - Adding value to a trend following program

21:08 - Signal filtering and embedding correlations

24:46 - The better technique and right timeframe

27:35 - Selecting and changing parameters

30:18 - Their view on replication

32:50 - Advice on evaluating and selecting managers

35:48 - Benefiting from alternative markets

39:30 - The risk of alternative markets

41:29 - Looking beyond China

42:18 - Incorporating ESGs with alternative markets

45:20 - Overcoming investors' trend following barriers

49:39 - The role of trend in a multi-asset portfolio

53:47 - Are risk mitigation strategies going out of fashion?

55:49 - Too much money in trend following?

58:57 - Trend following disagreements

01:00:56 - Expectations for 2023

01:02:55 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI239: CTAs Profits from Food Crisis...True or False? ft. Andrew Beer

Sun, 16 Apr 2023 02:30:00 +0100

Join us for a riveting conversation with Andrew Beer, where we dive deep into the world of systematic trend following, CTA Replication, and much more. As we explore the current state of central banks, we uncover the challenges that come with investing during periods when yields rise. Andrew shares his insights on why the language used in portfolio management can be misleading and what happens when we can't rely on banks being safe. Then we get into what has been going on in the world of CTA Replication and why Andrew is surprised by the DrawDowns that his fund has experienced in recent months. Finally, we debunk false narratives surrounding hedge funds profiting from the food crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and discuss the demonization of capitalism. Don't miss out on this captivating episode!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Andrew on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 - What happened this week?

11:46 - Industry performance update

13:57 - Replication - reasons for concern?

16:58 - Why the current drawdown exceeds that of the benchmark?

23:51 - The challenge of making money when yields rise

32:27 - Do Replication funds really out-perform over time?

40:56 - The challenges of picking a single manager

47:51 - Should you make changes to your model?

53:29 - Gaurdian article on CTAs role in food crisis

01:03:12 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM39: The Secrets of a Natural Resource Speculator ft. Rick Rule

Wed, 12 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for an insightful and personal conversation with Rick Rule, a renowned investor and speculator with decades of experience in sub $1,000,000,000 market capitalisation public and private issuers in natural resource industries. With a track record of structuring and leading numerous debt and equity issuances for resource companies worldwide, Mr. Rule shares his expertise on navigating the complexities of this unique market. As a sought-after speaker at investment conferences, he offers valuable insights into the natural resource industry's future and how to make informed investment decisions. In this episode, Mr. Rule discusses his personal investment philosophy as well as some of the wildest speculations that he has done in his career. Tune in for an engaging conversation with one of the industry's top experts.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Rick on Linkedin.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:41 - Introduction to Rick Rule

04:16 - Financial experimentation and taking bets

16:35 - Commodities and the state of the economy

28:37 - Themes in resourcable markets

30:47 - Inflation - a political phenomenon?

38:57 - Are we seeing a change in ESGs?

44:26 - The pushback by the lower class

49:48 - Is owning gold becoming pointless?

56:14 - Central banks buying - a sign of demand?

01:00:40 - Finding convex ways to invest in gold

01:06:49 - Too much hype in the narrative?

01:11:57 - Being a contrarian

01:14:15 - Learn more about Rick and his work

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU142: The Contrarian ft. Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management

Mon, 10 Apr 2023 12:30:00 +0100

Buckle up for a fascinating conversation with Roy Niederhoffer, President of R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management, as he shares insights on managing a billion USD through short-term trading. Discover why he's chosen this approach and how he's overcome its challenges. You'll also gain valuable insights on human biases surrounding the Sharpe Ratio, the impact of an inverted yield curve on longer-term trend following strategies, and why Roy "has PTSD" from investing in the stock market. Dive deep into the drivers of short-term trading and learn why thinking like a trader is key to successful research. Plus, Roy offers a cautionary note on the dangers of machine learning. Don't miss this illuminating conversation!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about R.G. Niederhoffer Capital Management.

Episode Timestamps:

02:16 - Introduction to R.G. Niederhoff Capital Management

03:46 - Their investment philosophy

10:00 - A period of challenges

13:26 - Believing in change

15:45 - Who's Sharpe should we be concerned about?

23:02 - Looking back in time

30:42 - The role of short-term trading

38:56 - What drives short-term trading?

42:47 - Being smart with execution

46:09 - Dealing with the downsides

53:53 - Studying the markets

55:49 - The dangers of machine learning

58:41 - Capacity and liquidity in short-term strategies

01:05:33 - Short-term trading disagreements

01:08:00 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI238: Why Not to Trend Follow ft. Rob Carver

Sat, 08 Apr 2023 20:00:00 +0100

Join us for an engaging conversation with Rob Carver, where we delve into the world of systematic trend following. We explore topics like how to forecast future market volatility and the pros and cons of using a Value at Risk methodology. We also discuss the benefits and drawbacks of tail risk hedging, and whether percentage or price differences are better for estimating standard deviation. As a surprise twist, we also explore the reasons why you should NOT be a trend follower. Tune in for a fun and thought-provoking discussion with Rob.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rob on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:40 - What happened since last time?

09:42 - Industry performance update

10:38 - Q1, Ricardo: When are you writing a book on backtesting with Python?

13:28 - Q2, Bruno: How to best forecast volatility?

20:49 - Q3, Skip: How is overall portfolio affected by not being pure trend?

25:41 - Libor Futures being replaced

30:41 - Blogpost about estimating standard deviation

38:01 - Article by Man-AHL on trend following performance following a sharp correction

43:37 - Bloomberg article about tail risk hedging

56:22 - Reasons Not to trend follow

01:09:50 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM38: Debt, Stagnation and Policy Responses ft. Barry Eichengreen

Wed, 05 Apr 2023 07:30:00 +0100

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Professor Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economic and Political Science at University of California, Berkeley as we discuss what we can learn from economic history in the current volatile global macro environment. We discuss the uses and misuses of history and look at what history tells us about the policy response to the current strains in the banking system. We delve into Professor Eichengreen’s work on the long term outlook for the US dollar, the exorbitant privilege that the dollar’s reserve status bestows on the US and whether the Euro and the Chinese Renminbi are becoming credible alternatives to the dollar. We also discuss if rising public sector and private sector debt levels sustainable and whether the global economy has fully emerged from the period of secular stagnation which characterised the last decade.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow Barry on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - Introduction to Barry Eichengreen

08:17 - A potential misuse of history

11:26 - A lesson forgotten?

14:25 - Are things starting to break?

16:49 - A lesson learned

18:44 - Should we be concerned?

22:19 - Are crises inevitable?

24:32 - Is the dollar under threat?

30:10 - The need for safe assets

36:02 - The state of the Euro

39:39 - Making alliances

43:17 - A change in approach

45:18 - The "right" amount of debt

49:21 - A systemic problem

51:25 - Dealing with the debt burden

54:09 - Secular stagnation

55:48 - UK guilt yield levels

57:10 - Concerns for private sector debt

58:24 - Debt in the emerging world

01:00:45 - How and where to learn more?

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU141: The Alternative Trendfollower ft. Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court

Mon, 03 Apr 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for an in-depth conversation with Douglas Greenig, CEO of Florin Court, as we explore their unique approach to managing $2 billion in assets using a systematic trend following program focused on alternative markets. Discover how they navigate the current macro environment by prioritizing skew over the traditional Sharpe ratio, their process for uncovering new markets, and their strategies for managing risk and uncertainty during times of crisis. We dive deep into their trend following implementation and why it's essential not to become a "backtest junkie." Plus, learn why they steer clear of having money inside of China, despite trading Chinese markets and how the location of their office has impacted their work. Don't miss this enlightening discussion with another industry leader in the CTA space.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Florin Court.

Episode Timestamps:

02:46 - Discovering Florin Court's Trend Following Approach

03:54 - The Macro Perspective: Understanding the Big Picture

07:13 - Why Trend Following and Alternative Markets?

15:55 - Skew Over Sharpe Ratio: A Different Way of Looking at Risk

18:31 - Understanding Crisis Alpha: How Trend Following Shines in Turbulent Times

22:27 - Accessing Individual Markets: The Hunt for Alpha

29:20 - Navigating Risks in Alternative Markets

33:39 - The Role of Macro Factors in Alternative Markets

36:41 - From Niche to Mainstream: The Rise of Alternative Markets

40:10 - Working with Trend Following: Tips and Best Practices

47:33 - Managing Risk: An Inside Look at Florin Court's Process

52:06 - The Importance of Macro Awareness in Trend Following

56:02 - ESGs and Investing: A New Frontier?

58:12 - Living the Abu Dhabi Lifestyle

01:01:26 - Factors Impacting Performance: A Closer Look

01:04:54 - The Art of Navigating Different Opinions

01:08:15 - Concerns & Opportunities in 2023: What to Watch Out For

01:11:13 - Thank You for Listening: Closing Remarks

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI237: Trend Following During March Madness ft. Richard Brennan

Sun, 02 Apr 2023 19:30:00 +0100

Join us for an eye-opening conversation with Richard Brennan, as we explore the world of trend following and delve deep into the unusual moves in fixed income markets and its impact on trend following performance during a month of March Madness. Discover how the design of trend following strategies allow it to be “prepared” for unforeseen events without overcomplicating the investment approach, and find out why choosing the right strategy and manager is all about personal preference. Rich reveals the secrets behind "the lifting power" of trend following and shares insights on how to determine the right amount of trend following allocation. Plus, gain valuable knowledge on the protective properties of trend following, the best ways to evaluate strategies, and the risks of being a replicator versus being a manager. Don't miss out on this enlightening episode!

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

03:16 - What happened this week?

08:34 - Unusual moves

15:16 - Reviewing the March Madness

20:44 - Industry performance update

22:05 - Being prepared for unexpected events

27:17 - Keeping things simple

30:29 - Correlation in your portfolio

34:27 - Finding the right strategy and manager

38:11 - The Good, the Bad & the Ugly side of the Sharpe Ratio

49:27 - Tail hedge vs trend following allocation

55:19 - Who's Sharpe should we be improving?

01:02:39 - The Pros and Cons of being a Replicator

01:12:15 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL15: Preparing for a De-Globalized World ft. Rana Foroohar

Wed, 29 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Join us for a thought-provoking conversation with Rana Foroohar, global business columnist and author of "Homecoming: The Path to Prosperity in a Post Global World". In this episode, Rana discusses the need for a localized economy to find a balance between the power of big government and large corporations. We explore how a prosperous, localized economy can be created by retethering wealth and place and talking about people and organizations that are already making it happen. From the problem with big food to the challenges of manufacturing and construction, Rana shares stories of people working on solutions and how additive manufacturing, localized production, and digital innovation can play a role in the future of our economy, and what the impact on inflation might be. Tune in to this fascinating discussion and gain new insights into the potential for a more resilient and balanced economy.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Rana on Twitter & read her book.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:49 - Introduction to Rana Foroohar and her new book

11:42 - What will the new world bring?

17:01 - The problems with Big Food

21:58 - The fascinating story about Molly Jahn?

28:08 - A realistic solution?

31:14 - A passion for manufacturing

37:22 - The pendulum is swinging

38:47 - An era of Hyper Localization

42:05 - The power of Additive Manufacturing

45:20 - The role of Data & the Story of Audrey Tang

55:15 - The 100 homes project

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU140: Why Trend Following is Smart Diversification ft. Bruno Gmür, Founder of Quantica

Mon, 27 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Get ready for an engaging conversation with Bruno Gmür, the Founder and CIO of Quantica Capital, as we explore their unique approach to systematic diversified trend following. Join us as we dive into the world of relative trend following and why volatility isn't always the right measure of risk. Bruno shares his insights on the challenges of estimating covariance matrices and expected returns during times of crisis, and how to create robust models to mitigate risk and prepare for market shocks. We'll also discuss why Quantica Capital no longer uses the term "crisis alpha" to promote their strategy and why trend following is much more complex than it may seem. Don't miss our discussion on the relationship between market liquidity and volatility as well as many more topics in this wide-ranging conversation.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Quantica Capital.

Episode Timestamps:

02:46 - Introduction to Quantica Capital

05:04 - Their investment philosophy

12:31 - What makes them unique?

17:09 - Reacting to trends

19:43 - Why not do it the easy way?

23:33 - Looking Sharpe

30:34 - When Correlations go to "1"

35:12 - Dealing with shocks

39:02 - The measurement methodologies

43:14 - The role of correlation

46:38 - Good research and potential pitfalls

53:09 - Important discoveries

55:26 - Making adjustments in a larger portfolio

59:11 - The time scale perspective

01:05:07 - The pros and cons of CTA replication

01:10:42 - Setting return expectations

01:14:14 - Trend following disagreements

01:15:45 - Expectations for 2023

01:19:22 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI236: New Opportunities in Volatility Trading ft. Cem Karsan

Sat, 25 Mar 2023 05:00:00 +0100

Join us for an insightful conversation with Cem Karsan as he sheds light on the current financial landscape, from the recent banking crashes to Central Bank Rate Hikes and Geo-Political developments. Discover the reasons behind the unprecedented moves in the volatility space and how they're impacting different strategies, including trend following. Cem shares his thoughts on the critical importance of positioning and why volatility strategies are currently facing tough times. We'll also delve into the potential consequences of a loss of confidence in central banks and their policies, including much higher bond yields. And don't miss our discussion on how the upcoming U.S. Presidential Election will impact economic policies in the months to come. Tune in to gain valuable insights from one of the sharpest minds in finance.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:03 - Reflecting on the current bank crashes

06:03 - The difficult situation for Powell

09:38 - The geopolitical perspective

12:38 - Surprises in the OpEx

18:03 - Weekly update

20:24 - The volatility winter

27:05 - Vol strategies in the equity space

30:38 - How volatility funds are finding it hard to make money at the moment?

36:11 - Are vol strategies on a downfall?

44:15 - A loss of confidence in Central Banks

48:09 - What are the signs to look for?

50:55 - The U.S election...and how it will affect economic policies

54:11 - The U.S debt ceiling

58:36 - Gamma vs Vega

01:03:01 - Thanks for listening

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

IL14: Is India Broken? - The Dangerous Equilibrium of Indian Society ft. Ashoka Mody

Wed, 22 Mar 2023 08:00:00 +0100

This is an episode for those who want to hear an alternative view of the world's largest country. McKinsey has said we are living in the “Indian Century”. Morgan Stanley believes 20 percent of global growth in the next decade will come from India. Our guest today, Princeton economist Ashoka Mody, has a different view, which he details in his new book: “India Is Broken”. He argues that there are two Indias, a successful, highly skilled and educated elite and a billion-plus population that remains very poor. Mody believes that this dangerous equilibrium is maintained by a close link between the government, big business and, in some cases, organized crime. This association produces projects that attract capital and headlines but leaves an employment deficit of over 100 million jobs.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Kevin on SubStack & read his Book.

Follow Ashoka on Twitter & read his book.

Episode TimeStamps:

04:14 - Introduction to Ashoka Mody

10:19 - The development path of East Asia

14:41 - The path that India did not take

19:32 - The path they did take

23:37 - Different versions of India

30:37 - What is Hindutva?

34:09 - The Guljurat model of development

39:34 - A corrupted government

46:17 - Finding the accurate data

51:45 - Press freedom in India

54:37 - India - the new China?

56:53 - Building a better India

01:02:23 - Key takeaways from Niels

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

TTU139: The Benefits of Alternative Markets ft. Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton

Mon, 20 Mar 2023 06:30:00 +0100

Today, we are joined by Simon Judes, Co-CIO at Winton for a conversation on how they use quantitative investment strategies and statistical research to generate alpha. We discuss how the characterization of Crisis Alpha has the potential to be misleading and why the speed of your trading should be determined by your objective, their process of discovering new ideas through research and the pitfalls of relying too heavily on automation. We also discuss how they stay diversified through alternative market selection, why it is important to look beyond volatility when assessing risk and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Learn more about Winton Group.

Episode Timestamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Winton

05:05 - Their investment philosophy

09:25 - Where does opportunities arise?

10:18 - What caused them to reduce emphasis on Trend a few years ago?

13:48 - Too concerned about Sharpe?

16:39 - The value of Crisis Alpha

20:09 - Changing the trend following narrative

22:41 - What about the non-trend?

25:22 - Need for speed?

27:49 - Their research process

31:19 - Accessing big events in markets

35:00 - The pros and cons of machine learning

38:16 - Trading and selecting parameters

42:23 - The risks of CTA replication

44:57 - More markets = better?

50:09 - Staying balanced

52:23 - The strategies in a broader perspective

54:18 - Working with clients

55:22 - Their approach to risk manangement

01:00:18 - The worst possible scenario

01:01:24 - Preparing for the worst?

01:02:37 - Question about capping the ability to go long stocks

01:03:59 - How many trend followers do you need?

01:05:14 - Setting return expectations

01:07:33 - Trend following disagreements

01:11:05 - Expectations for 2023

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

SI235: Trend Following's Reaction to SVB Collapse ft. Mark Rzepczynski

Sun, 19 Mar 2023 06:00:00 +0100

Today, Mark Rzepczynsky is back with us, following a tense week with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and a few other bank emergencies. We discuss how we are in a period that Mark calls “the great bond reprising” and what this means for the economy, why the collapse of SVB was somehow "expected", if only regulators had been looking at the right data and how you build models that are well prepared for unexpected events. We also discuss why the core concept of CTA replication in itself may be problematic and why the collapse of SVB might indicate that some people possess too much power, how the wealth of information creates a poverty of attention, how change and uncertainty in the world affects investors and the economy and much more.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Mark on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:00 - What really happened this week?

19:19 - Industry performance update

25:21 - A tough week for trend

36:13 - Looking through the rear view mirror

46:25 - SVB and trend following

52:47 - The dynamics of the financial world

59:20 - A changing world

01:09:27 - Reflecting on the CTA series

01:13:33 - Thanks for listening

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer

GM37: SPR - The Federal Reserve of Oil ft. Rory Johnston

Wed, 15 Mar 2023 15:00:00 +0100

Today we are re-joined by Rory Johnston, founder of Commodity Context, a physical commodities research firm based in Toronto, Canada. We cover the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserve) that has been actively deployed by the Biden administration over the past year, its implementation and potential impact on related economies. To what extent can the SPR influence spot and futures prices, and what are the knock on effects on refined products? What is the interaction between the SPR, commercial inventories and prices? Rory also discusses the analogy between SPR sales and Fed policy, as it influences the yield curve. We also discuss the relationship between oil volatility and the crack spread, and how volatility is generally damaging but can boost profits in proprietary oil trading books. Finally, Rory challenges the assertion that speculators are the "smart money" in energy, and how positioning can act as a counter trend indicator.

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Rory on Twitter

Episode TimeStamps:

03:19 - SPR - What and why?

06:27 - Why crude and not refined products?

09:34 - How is the SPR used?

13:54 - Trading oil

19:54 - The goal of the SPR market

23:04 - How inventory drives oil price

28:29 - The effect of inventory restocking

29:43 - Theory vs. practice

33:28 - The mega energy companies

36:00 - Distortion in oil markets

41:20 - Can volatility be profitable?

47:35 - No specs = steeper or flatter?

50:11 - Advice on using the data

52:37 - Understanding signals in the oil market

59:17 - Dollar Wrecking Barrell

01:01:44 - Oil vs. gold and gas

01:09:07 - What makes money in high vol regimes?

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Disclaimer